TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR INITIATION OF OVER-ALL COST STUDY OF SOVIET MILITARY EFFORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00937A000400020027-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 8, 1999
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: August 25, 1955
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIaENGE AQENCY
OFFICE ~' NATSONAL EST]MATES
UMEMT N0. ,,,..._?~
Nt) C E IN CI.ASiS. j'a
CLA8S. CHANQ T3 $
'
IVEX1
RENEW DATE:
~vtK: NR Paz
~rAFF r~ca~wvM xo. 5555
DATE: JLLli.~.: REVIEWER:
25 Amt 1955
SUBJECT: Terma of Rsferenete four Iaitfati~s caf Osnas~a3l Cost Study
of Sov3st Military Effort
to On l6 August 1955 (IAC~I??206) the ?AC approved the s~+cs~enc]atil~e
in the Past~Mortsm an NIE 113-55 that:
'"These be in3.tiated as sacm as ~+ssible a stuffy of thlj
aver-a17. costs a~f' the Sov~.st militar~r effort and its implioa~
bons for future t~snds in the Soviet eCOUO~-ooe3a an effort
to obta~,n a coordi,~rated appraisal 3a tim? to be contributed
to the 1956 estivate on the USSRa"
2 d This stut~r staOVyd be initiaated i~nediately sp as to be aQailabl+e
in time far consideraticss in esaamection with the tbezt aver~a71 Soviet
est3~tes tentative],y schedaaled for comap]aaticez 17y 1 June 1$560 Thexem
foxes we p~posa to send out the attached Terms of Beferencee which
should be cc~sidexed as parttml terns of referenge fair the react
rnrer~sll. Sov3,et estims~te~
3o The most efficient ~ to carry out this study waulyd be to
have it done by 0/RE t~der the auper~ris3oa of ata aci hoc oc~nittee of
the IAO representatives, rich we hope would be cam~posed of tt~ earns
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representatives tea ~ri31 par~tiai~.te in the arper-~ala. t estimate
ne~ct yeer'@ Theee repraa~entatives ahouldi CS) Clear the attached
Terms of Itefaret~ae; (b' act as a steering cam~nittee to dea], faith at~t
probheaas arising fa the course a~' the atue~r~ CQ) aerae as a liaison
cha~uaael between 0/~ and their agencies; and Cd.~ r~aview and infatma11~
coordinate each phase o~ the atu~~
!~, cost study itself will be similar to that for NIE 11..5m55
CAir Ds~'?ns~~ r~oaept cif course on s grs~ader arsala Q We plan. tt~ do ~.t
iu two paarts,~ first s histor~.cal s~ys3as at the costs of pos~tar
Soviet nilitat~` paragra~- up 'tA the presea~t9 and aeaoad a ptro~vtftat
thrau~a i9bl (the terminal date of the next SaRiet NIEg. The initial
drafts would be based, wherever pc~ssibl~ ~ already publl~shed service
estimates oY ~oductioxa, aead Q~B, w~.th the aer4icea f~l3xig in
Baps wh~th appear to eaie~te
5'? .t~.c,~?Ccanrea We propose to maw the initial stud
Elac.dle imm soot bet~au~ of the ~caessity aRf' hand]3rag the inta~a-d31oc
er ps?obl~? Hciwe~rp ~ caaac~r3.~ution to the ne~ct Soviet
NIE can be li~.ted to tf~e II53~t if d>~esired~ and the ether Bls>c portia~
would then b+e available Cas a useful bypacoduet) to support arur 1956
estimates on the Eurb-pean Satellites and Gist Chit~am
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de T~~,,, Z'he coat3.ng atu~y ,I~laoul~d ?ae ca?p]beted in time to
contribute to the aeart over-a11. Soviet 11QEi new teatatir-elp achedu"Led
far 1 Jae I956o To meet this deadline Tile propose the following echeduLe s
Ca~tplei~e O/~R draft of Phase Ome- - i January 1956
Campl,ete Ad Hoc Reps Review of Fhase One ~ 1 February 1956
Complete O/~R draft of Fhase Two ~ 15 t~srch 1956
Complete Ad Rota fps Review o~ Stu~r .~ ~ Apri3, 1956
f~~1111C111C111T1 A I
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S[18~CT t TER'/h1S OF REFE$EI~E
FCE COSTI1413 STS OF ESTZMATED BLOC
~ PROS 1956-61 (PARTIAL ~ OF
1956 ~R~LL SQV~ Nom) REF>w~ENCE FOR
P1~BLEM
To p~rsperi ~ erer~~ ~9'atematia costing of estimated
~ PPO~ected Sov:Let ~ Pmt
~9 Proms ~~61, ~+i9h a 4~,ex ~
~Q~B' our estimates ai's ~a) B.l.,x ffi13.taty
jb) future Soviet a~itures;
~ ~?; ~c) Srnriet ecoc ,aBP,~,Iilitiea
to meet these ptbs3 and (d} the it~act u~' such
ecd10~C mho P~ra~na On Soviet
POSE (~
Historica', A~yaia of Dei'ense O~~ 19dt6,?55
I. ~~
ARC X35 AND ~ODUCTION ~~-955
(To be aaae~nb3~ed from published ~,~
on7~r' xhere 'U`~~s filling iri gaps
saa:g)@
A? ~'Qa]l '~sitiau of
Bloc mi13, ~~or ccvaponenta of the
'' f~-rces, i~l S3naSoRriet
?'-~~battle lb~r ,y~..~~ the
Period (bp country and military.ser~rice
)~
B, Praduc't~,cut of
~~or items off' ec~utpment and
to the supper ~ Blos mili items essential
ta:'3' Iarogr~ far the Period@
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C, Organieatio~s of the Sir~o~SovS,et Blaa atilit~r forces.
Relation of Sate]3ite and Chirr~se Coesmunist forces
to those of the USSR,,,
D. Status of Bloc military be~se faailiti~es for the Bloc dur3mg
the Pea~.a34
II. ECOMf~lIC REQUJTS TO SUPPORT TI3~ MILITARY' PROGRAM
~ o The initial. costs end annual operati~-g oasts of the weapons
and w~apan systems far Bloc military p~x?og~axas. Price data should be
provided for as maw of the raa~or items of equipment as possibls?
(The variants ~hhould he a~vmat]rsted in categor3.es s~eflecting
sectoacs of ari~no)
B. Rates of utilization for equipmtistat, weapcua systems, facilit~.es,
said the efficiency of msintenatace and ttra~x~i ~a
Co Logistic requirements for variotas weapon systems uti].i~ed by
tt~ military farces duritag periods
IDS, Ecataomic r~equirsments for the research and dsvelopwent and
3~s~ant prog~are~ rs3cessary to support the military gro~am of the }31aco
Ra s of support uxz3.te a~eoessary for the operation of the
mi].itatar progr~ns@
~5-
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IIZ, MILITARY ASSISTANCE PR
GRAMS AND INVENT4RZ~S
A'' ~~ and extent of mil3,
meQ~bere of the Baacb assiatar~ p~.o between
B, C~paeitlan, and
Quanti~yr of ~itax~ etoclos dtzx3ng the p~,~,o
~'. SUN$+7ARg
To be an int~e+grated atatemsnt of hia,~,?ioal Ste?
~Penclitures aaad Soviet niili,'taay'
elation of these ~nd3.t~a }~;, other hfs,~riCal
a~tisre series,
SSE ZWO
~tian~ of B],~ ~'ense C~{~ ~56..lgdl
C~ta3 fed tertr~ of reference far SSE TatO ~,
PHASE ONE fB be issued wizen
co~pl~ so that we aan dr~,r
O
first ph, The fo]lowing is ~ere2y an a ~ Zee of the
utlitae,~,
zo ESTI~,,T,~ ~~~ ~~
~ r '~' Perm3.t gaiazg ~Ad with the $tz~, the
should be ass~l~sd ~ p~
from ~ estiaavtes sash as NIE u-355 erzd
~ u-555 ~ ~a ~ 196t), with ~
~ m's~ar ~apvr f31led in by the
$e~ices to the extent feasible ? The
~?a~atians for 1961 jdill have
~ ~3t uYat~ aP~"oFriate eeti~tes for the ne~rt S
m~ra32ab3~e+ (q/yfTE x,o Quiet NIE ~
P poses to ask far tp~
c+oanp],e Lion of ~ ~ 1 ~at~h to ~t~-tit
the cost stir ~,' 1 Ap~g,, ~
~6?
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rani
,iuviri ~uL~
II. E~o~ttxt~oc ~Qc~t~rtzs To sUPPC7RT nuL1~ARY PROGRAMS
~. ~'~.a7? Ullt
}~ o ~1L81 ~jJ8r8ti~ E3Cpena6@8
Mil3.taxy' ~ GoodB Proce~tremeYit
III. ECONOMIC C~PABILI~'S TO SUPPORT ABODE PR0f~11~~5
A~ t9~nea~s7.l
B? Bottlers~alc ~rosss (if arm)
IV. STAB'
NpB? Thy ax~3yeis of the i~ap3~icsatiruta of the above posting atuc~r in
teas caf its impa+e~L ons (s) parobable military expenditures, (b) proba~b].e
mil.itar3r Prngrams; at~ci cc) probable rates of ecos~~ni+c grarat~ will not
be a part of the ttasting stu~r prt-per becau~ it invol3res consideratiao
of a broader range of Sactors than these ood in the oosttng study
abo~? This ]ysis should be d,+onec subsec~ntly as part of the regular
NTE pPO~let~,
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