PROGRAM OF ESTIMATES THROUGH 1953

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00937A000200010020-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 15, 2000
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: December 8, 1952
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
8 December 1952
STAFF N 'ORANI NO. 283 (Second Revision)
SUBJECT? Prcgraam -of ElStimates through 1953
REFE? FME s Memorandum for the IAC 9 dated 5 Program Of :atirmates for Remainder of~2952b~ to
T~ WORK IN PROCESS
1, The Office of National Satimmatee has the fnabcwi esti_
mates in ?esap which it propo866 to compl by the dates
n~teda
ac NIE-45t Probable Free World Attitudes in the
East 'West Ccaaflibt the h Mid-l., 15 January
:~953a
b- NIB-56a Likelihood of Joan of Im rtant EcOno mie
Res e>a Of the Far East,, 15 December
1952,
NIA-598 Relative Strate is Importance
of East-,
West Trade to the S iet El" and to the Rest of
lb! W _ ? , 32 December 1,9521 DOCUMENT NO. 'T. ~ .
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. _L:j
1P s DATE,
wam"
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U DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
RUTH: HR 70:2
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do NIE-63s Franc fictive Ability to Play a
Major Rcle in the Western Security Systern0
31 December 1952"
e,a NIEm66 (Part I) Supplements Soviet Bloc Capa-
bilities Uuvagh Mid -125U. 15 December 3,952.
fb NIE-65: Soviet Bloc Capabilities through 19570
aaav~r~..T~ ~
28 February 1953ry
g0 NIB-71s Probable Developments in Italy. 35 January
1953-
h. NIEQ73s Conditions and Trends in the Middle East
Affecting US Security. 31 December 1952,?
aaaae.rao .a
iG NM -74t Probable Developments in Biri* through
31 December 1952G
3.
NIEE76s Probable Developments In EWTj,, 31 January
X53
k,, NIB-77s Probable Developments In Indonesia,,
31 January 1953
S. NIE.78s Estimate of Soviet Intentions over the
Next Decade,, 15 December 1952.
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25X6
II> UNSCHEDULED ESTIMATI+$
2r, The Board realises that a program drawn up at this time
will not cover an situations on which estimates will be required
during 2953, Various developments wills from time to times
necessitate the initiation of new estimates on a priority basis.
The policy needs of the new Administration may even require a
major reformulation of the estimative program. For these reaaonas
the program outlined below represents the minimum rather than
the ,maximum amount of preliminary scheduling considered,advisable
at this time,,
IIIr, REEXAMINATION OF EXISTING ESTIMATES.
3 The following sub3ectss previously estimatedp should be
reexamined (wherever possible as slants an existing estimates):
aC Soviet Bloc- Cap,abilitiee and Probable Courses of
Action (thra t Mid1955) There is need for a
standardised Soviet Bloc estimate9 published
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annually with an agreed format, which shall serve
as the authoritative intelligence basis for budget
purpoaeep NATO planningg etas Unlike NIE-25 and
NIEm64? new periodic examinations should repre-
sent a two year projection, i"eaa through the
fiscal year (1955) for which US policies and
programs are made during.the last halt of 2953,
Completion dates 30 June 1953,
East Oerman : The present estimate expires at the
end of 1952,, Completion date: 31 January 19539
an Eastern European Satellites: The present estimate
expires in mid-.1953- Completion dates 31 March
1953
d,, Kea: The present estimate expires in midm1953,
Completion dates 30 April 1953,
ea In d,dooch Baas The present estimate expires In mid-
1953, Completion date: 31 May 19534
fpia: The present Indian estimateq completed in
X9519 has become obsolete., Completion dates
15 February 19530
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gn Iran: The present estimate expires at the and of
1953. Completion date: 31 October 1953,.
h. !ugoslaviai The present estimate expires at the
end of 1952. Completion date: 15 April 19530
IV0 NEW ESTIMATES0
4,, Preparation of estimates on the following subjects is
also considered desirable:
a. Future Orientation of West Germany: An examination
of the various long-range economics political and
psychological factors o.. internal and external
which wile. affect West Germany0a future course.
Completion date: 31 July 2951,
b., The Un ittec Kingdmot An examination of the various
economic and political factors which will determine
the UK?s future role in Europeg the Middle and
Far Eastp and the Fast-West struggle generally,,
Completion date: 30 September 1953,
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c.> Prospects for the Develgasut of Strength and
Stability in Western Europe, An examination of
trends in Western Europe as a whole and an esti-
mate of their effect upon Western - Europees
ability to achieve and maintain strength,,
Completion dates 30 November 1953.
Probable Develop nte-in Jappaann An examination
of Japanes immediate economic and political prob-
lame and their implications. Completion dates
31 March 1953.
co Probable Developments in Greece: Completion
dates 30 April 19536
f. Israeli An examination of its internal strains
and of the various factors affecting Ieraelee
position in the Middle East and in the East-West
struggled Completion dates 31 August 1953
go Probable Developments in Central Africa: An
examination of trends and problems in the area
between the Sahara and the Union of South Africa=,
Completion dates 28 February 1953 .
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ho Likelihood of the Loss of Important Resources ins
Indian Subcontinents Completion dates
31 March 1953
Africa! Completions dates 30 April 1953,
Middle East: Completion dates 31 May 19534
Latin America: Completion dates 31 July 3953,
V,, 0[NE ESTIMATE OF THE 1VRLO SITUATION.
w~ss
5. The periodic review of the world situation wilt be a
continuing requirement, In April of this year the Board com-
pleted action an an "Estimate of the World Situation through
1953"e and in Nowsiber it completed action an an "Estimate of
the World Situation through 1954.11 Hereafter this estimate will
be done at least annuallyp and in 1953 the Board plans to cam-
plots an "Estimate of the World Situation through 1955" by
1 September 19534
VI, RESEARCH IN SUPPORT OF. THE NATIONAL ESTIMATES IRO0RAM,
&' The Board recommends that projects of research be under-
taken by qualified government agencies or outside institutions
in the fields of study noted below,, In these fields National
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Intelligence Estimates are essentials but definite information an
which to base these estimates Is peculiarly inadequate The
Board believes that well-conceived programs of research would
provide a surer foundation for future estimates. The Office of
National Estimates Is prepared to draft terms of reference,
setting forth the general nature of the information required0
It is also prepared to assist in drafting the detailed terms of
research projeets? and to discuss the allocations of these
projects with appropriate agencies or institutions.
The Present and Potential Strength of Communist
China: Estimates written during 1951 and 1952
have been hampered by a lack of solid and recent
data an the political8 economic and military
situation in China, Pursuant to the post-mortem.
an 5E?27, steps toward the improvement of
economic intelligence on Communist China have
already been takenh Similar steps need to be
undertaken in the political and military fieldsc,
* An example of such terms of references on the subject of
Communist Chipae is attached as Appendix B.,,
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b, Saeaial Soviet Econanio Problemez Adequate na-i
tional intelligence effort has not yet been given
to such problems as the location of Soviet in-
duetry9 the degree of industrial concentration
in geographic areas, the extent of regional self-
sufficiency and interdependence, the Soviet trans-
portation system, the stockpiling program,
industrial bottlenecks, critical commodities in
short supply, local and overcall vulnerabilities-P
Study of these subjects will assist in making
estimates of over-all Soviet intentions and esti-
mates of capabilities and intentions in particular
areas (e.g.,) a study of the Soviet Far East as an
aid in estimating Commmist policy in Asia). They
will assist in formulating national policies on
a variety of subjects, including trade controls,
war plane, weapons developmentp etc?:
cn Soviet Air Offensive and Defensive Capabilities
Despite continuing attention to these subjectsp
serious problems sti1 exist. One such problem
is that of acquiring the kind of data which per-
mits adequate quantitative estimates, ire.p the
?9 -
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kind of data which will permit an estimate., not
alms of technical capacity, but of actual produc-
tion and effective use by operational units
Another problem is that of converting these esU-
mates into meaningful terms and setting forth
their implications for US security.
d., Soviet Capabilities for Conducting Narfar+e by
Unconventional Means: Continuing studies in the
ww
fields of atomic and there: clear weapon s
guided miesilss9 biological and .,hem aX weapons.,
electronic measures. or other umconlentional
weapons (including sabotage and other clandestine
warfare) are required, These s .es9 where
appropriate., should cover produzion and effec-
tive operational use as well as bevels of
technical achievement,,
?~b4~
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RECAPITULATION OF SCHEDULE
CAm atton
December 1 - 15 NIE-56 Far Last Resources
NIE-64 (I) Supplement
SE-34 Albania
December 15 - 31 NIE-59 East-West Trade
NIE-63 France
NIE-73 Middle East
NIE-74 Burma
NIE-78 Longview
January 1 - 15 NIE-45 Free World Attitudes
NU-71 Italy
January 15.31 NIE-76 Egypt
NIE-77 Indonesia
East Oer ny
February NIEc65 Soviet Capabilities through mid-1957.
Central Africa
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C p-tion.
April
may
June
July
August
September4, Octobers,
Novembers, December
Eastern European Satellites
Japan
Indian Subcontinent Resources
Korea
Greece
African Resources
Yugoslavia
Indochina
Middle East Resources
Soviet Capabilities and Courses
of Action through Mid-2955
West GermaM
Iatin America Resources
Israel
Estimate of the World Situation
UK
Western Europe
Iran
Various estimates to be initiated
under paragraph 6
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SECURITY INFORI-'ATIOfl
GENERAL GUIDE TO RESEARCH III SUPPORT OF NATIONAL
INTELLIOENC]'. ESTItl'TES ON COL rIUUIST CIII] A
TUE PROBLE'1
To examine the various components of Communist China's
national strengths, in order to provide a basis for estimating
the power potential of Communist China through 1960.
ASSUI:IPTION
Communist China does not become involved in a general war
in the Far East, or in ,a global war, during the period of this
estimate,
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1. POLITICAL STRENG'T'HS AND WEAK (FSSES
14e, ObJectives. What political objectives of the CC regime are
eignifiaent in relation to the present and future poster potential
of the regime? What programs and policies are now in operation,
or pltiuned, to achieve these objectives? What relative priority
do these various objectives have?
1. Internal objectives (such as total control of the estate
by the CCP,, and socialisation of society)?
2 Program and policies to support internal objectives.
(Where applicable include military and economic measures
designed to support political objectives, and the inter-
play of these measures and objectives will military and
economic objectives)
34 External objectives (such as aspirations with respect to
the USSR, to Asian CP's, ksian governneente, and the West)
Io Programs and policies to support external objectives
F. Factors Which Will Condition Pei. iae gs Ability to Achieve Its
std ac vas
To ghat extent and in what manner will such factors as the fol.--
loving affect the regime&s ability to mobilise,, direct, and ex.,
plait the people of China In its attempt to achieve the above
objectives? What trends are important in this respect?
to The status std function of the CUP.
an Extent and pattern of CCP domination of the government,
acono , and society,
PM"
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3c.
b, The nature of the CCI?s doctrinal relationship and
orientation with respect to the CPU; with respect
to Asian CP$s* The ability of the CCP to reconcile
domestic and world communist demands
on The effectiveness of intraaparty discipline in the
CCP. The extent, if anpr, of doctrinal or personal
in
divergencies with{}.he CCP. The problem of Mao Tee-
tungQ s succession.
do Thai emergence, if any, of a CCP managerial and bursa
cratic elite,
a The status and function of non-CP personalities and
organisations in the government, the economy, and
society.
Problems of governmental administration
sus, Problems of trained leadership.,
b., Problems of corruption ar8 Inefficiency
a. Effectiveness of revens a collection
d. Control over production
,1r, i}egicnaliem vs. ce&tralism
f? Ethnic and religious problem
g, the cost of th'e bureaucracy
The extent and nature of eoerciou as a method of exploiting
human resourcess, and the relative emphasis placed by the
regime on various instruments and teshniquea of control,
3
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a. Physical coercion
(1) Instrument and techniques
(2) Extent and effectiveness
b0 Political and psychological coercion
(1). Instruments and techniques
(2) Extent and effectiveness
co Economic coercion for political ends
(1) Instruments and techniques
(2) Extent and effectiveness
4,, The force of popular attitudes
a. The extent to which the regime must consider tradi-
tional forma,, popular prejudices and popular aspixra-
tiona in determining and implementing policy.
bo 1 he extent and nature of discontent within the CP1,
she Army and among non-CP officials and the general
population reagardings
(1) the CPp the goverment, the Army
(2) the rapid coin nisstion of society
(3) the Korean war
(I&) the USSR, the US, the Chinese Nationalists, -Japan
The extent, nature, and prospect of effective discontent
The effect upon the above attitudes of special reg: or.+al
k:l*s et, ethnic, or age consideration
The effect of economic influences on political objec:.ives.
4., alra1ongsd support of hostilities in Korea
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b. Development and prolonged support of large modernised
armed forces.
c~ Prolonged austerity programs.
d0 Precipitous efforts to collectivize agrioulturao
ao Prolonged frustration of economic development plans,
t0 Others
6n The effect of external influences on political objectives
a. Relations with the USSR
b. Relations with the West
c~ Relations with Japan$ Taiwang Southeast Asia,, and India
d. Prolonged frustration of foreign policy aspirations
eo Others
7n Others
IL ECONOMIC STRENGMS AND WEAKNESSES
A. tab ectivesn What economic objectives of the CC regime are sig-
nificant in relation to the present and future power potential
of the regime? What program and policies are now in operation,,
or plan eeda to achieve these objectives?
L, Economic objectives
Over-all and by economic sectors
b, Relative priorities
Programs and policies to support these objectives
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a,, Internal programs (Where applicable include military
and political measures designed to support economic
objectives, and the interplay of these measures and
objectives with political and military objectives)
bo Foreign programs (Where applicable include military
and political measures designed to support economic
objectives, and the interplay of these measures and
objectives with political and military objectives)
(1) With respect to the USSR and the Soviet Bloc.
(2) With respect to Japan.
(3) With respect to other Asian states.
(4) With respect to the West.
B. Conditioning Factors
To what extent and in what manner will such factors as the fol
louring affect the regimes ability to mobilize,, direct, and
exploit the human and economic resources of China in its at-
tempt to achieve the above objectives? What trends are im-
portant in this respect?
1o Significant details of the functional aspects of the CC
econoay, current and anticipated.
a., Economic organization and administration
b:, Administrative control of indiustry
w6,
REF
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c? Planning, preparation, and control
do Financial and fiscal system
e. Internal distributive facilities
fn Others
2, Development of bumian resources (demographic considerations;
size and occupational distribution; scientific, technical,
and other specialised skills and training)
3. Rate of growth of industrial production and productive
capacity
so capital goods
b0 Military end-items
s4 Consumer goods
4. Rate of growth of agricultural production
5. Rate of growth of mining, extraction and processing
6 Development of economic services
an Transportation facilities
bn Transportation facilities into Chinas particularly
the Trans-Siberian Railroad
c. Communications
do Electric power
a0 Others
Developments in foreign and domestic commerce
8. The over-all impact of the Korean war on Comamo inist China ;49
economy, and prospects for over-all economic growth In 1960
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in. miLi AR ti7TSE args AND l rAmES8
A. Mlectives, What milital7 objectives (in terms of developer nt
of armd forces m- not in terms of military operations outside
CC) of the CC regime area aigolricant in relation to the pro!--
swat and future power potential of CC? What programs and
policies are now in operation or planned in an effort to
ar hieve these objectives?
I. Objectives
Program and policies
Do Condit ieenin~ F tors, To what ssttent or in what manner will
mich factors as the following affect the rsgimsa is ability to
mbilize, dire ctf, and exploit the PSople and resources of
China in its effort to achieve the above objectives?
1. Political strengths and weaknessafs
2,, FWonoeaic strengths and weaknesses
Dependence on the USS$ for equipment,, supplies 8 and tmsha
nioal assistar4e
IV, CO iIST CH INA aS NATI ZNAL STNNKQ!"H AND POWER POTENTIAL
A Q Taking into account the components of total national straigtho
the objectives set, and the conditioning considerations d'ts
cussed aboveo what is China's total porter potential at the
present ttneD in teras of Chin 0 s ability tea
G8c
SE ',Er
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( CONFIDENTIAL
-mom
1. Maintain doaeestio ecntr a?
2>> Carry out each of its desired domatio objectives?
3Q Pursue a car indop.nd.nt foreign polio??
Coorc+e or induce the neighboring eamtries of Asia into
closer relations with the Soviet Blos?
5. Support the Korean war at pr+esentq or at expanded levels?
64 &apport more actively Indigenous Coeaaoist activities in
non-Comwmist Asia?
7 Uhdertahe invasions of Taiwan and/or athsaat Asia?
80 Support a general wawa in the Far East?
Bo Aeeu aift that Cbino does not in the aeantiaeo bosom involved- In
1.r a-scab military operations e1sewhsre in Asi or in a
general war in the Per dastfl what will be Chinaea total power
pmtentia1 In 19609 In tens of sub of the (8) above eontin
genies affecting the sesurity interests of the US?
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