FIELD COMMENTS ON NIE-23, "INDIA'S POSITION IN THE EAST-WEST CONFLICT"

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00937A000100030070-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 8, 2006
• Sequence Number: 70
• Publication Date: February 4, 1952
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2006/11/09: CIA-RDP79T00937AO00100030070-1
140
C E 11 T R A L 111 T E L L I G .E 1 1 C E A G E N C Y
OFFICE OF NATIONAL 3,TI.,ATE9
4 February 1952
STAFF ?:tMORA11DUL NO. 190
SUBJECT: Field Oonnents on I3IE.23,, "India's Position in the Eact,&
West Conflict"
1. On 3 January 1952 US Embassy New Delhi commented at
length, by dispatch,, on N1IE..23j, "India?s Position in the East-
-West Conflict."* Despite their considerable length, these
comments do not re.'lect any basic disagreement with the estimate
except on the c estion of economic deterioration a point, it
mar be recalled? which was responsible for considerable fire 7orks
during preparation of the est- a . The Embassy generally lines
up with OIR (in its comments on NE-23)
in rejecting the concept- India's ability to. support its
s
the Embassy in effect rejects the notion that mounting population
pressure is a fundamental component of the situation. The Embassy
attributes India?s present economic deterioration chiefly to such
"transitory" factors as the impact of World war U,, the."calamities
of partition," and the abnormal climatic conditions of the last
four years, It adds, moreover,, that any continued economic decline
would probably be slow in view of India's primarily agricultural
character.
repognized the existence of an unfavorable trend but be.
ev it could be countered by an economic development program
State Dept. declassification
release instructions on file
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* We' 'fall dispatch is available in care in the
Reading Room; The moot pertinent parts are corm arized in this
memorai dum.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. Q
X DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C .
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH; HR 70-2
+!ATE:1 es go
REVIEWER
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2m Unfortunately, very little can be said on this point
without raking over the aches' of last cuimnerls arguments in the
IAC representative meet .ngs. It is -'ossible that IJ'.,.E..23 nought
up the Iroblem of population pressure in too mechanistic and
glocm* a fashion, and, in any events c:e would thoroughly agree
with the ]nbass; that any problem of economic deterioration is
essentially a long-range rather than an immediate one. The facts
remain that population pressure is mounting (at a rate of about
5 million persona a year) and that some serious students of the
problem question India's ability to achieve greater stability
even if large-scale outside aid is forthcoming, The final
version of NM-23 attempted to balance off the pessimism of this
school with the optimism of the ly well-qualified men in
State who are committed to a pro.
gram ar trying to do something to retrieve the situation. In
the opinion of the staff, we can, in honesty, do no more.
3. The Eibassy?s comments on the foreign affairs sections
of DIE-23 fall into two general categories: (a) those regarding
India's responsiveness to future Soviet and Chinese Ca nunist
pressures against South Asia and nearby areas; and (b) those
calling attention to what it regarded as distortions or inade_
?quacies in the treatment of India's current foreign affairs out-
look, We Would certainly agree with the Embassy's statement that
India has recently shown increasing awareness of the external
Cc mmist threat, and would also go along with the Taabassyss
assertion that overt Chinese Communist invasion of Southeast Asia
would require a re-examination, of Indian policy. As the Embassy
apparently also believes, however, the basic caveat which we Ili-
tended to convey- iould still appear valid: namely, that India's
ba: is predilection for. non-.involvement makes it impossible to
count on India's identifying itself more closely with the Vtestern
defense effort even though India becomes more aware of the ex-
ternal Communist threat, The Iinbassy made useful suggestions on
two related matters, pointing out quite validly that India would
regard Soviet aggression AA the 11iddle Eavt more seriously than
it-would aggression in Europe and that India would wish to come
to- Burma's assistance (against direct aggression) under UN aus-
pices rather than directly.
49 ? Most of the remaining foreign affairs comments are in
accord With the Intant if not the actual wrilin
of th
t
g
e es
imate0
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I It the Embassy gagged over the word "appease-
In a manner which. misconstrued its intended meanings and
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*90, ~Wd
probably that e:rpreasion vrould bettcr have been omitted from the
to:t. ie agree with the 2;nbaosy that the eatinato might have
spelled out more fully the bases of Nehru's objections to :Tectern
rearmament as a means of combatting Soviet a:? pansionism.
There appears to be a contradiction between two of the
Thnbaccyos comments. In line with its views on the economic future?
the Anbacsy suggested that political disintegration may possibly
be more potent than economic disintegration and that we might
validly assert the conclusion that political disintegration might
lead to Conmmict domination of India. ter, however, the Embassy
states that despite friction within the ruling Congress Party there
is little to justify the belief that Nehru Till be unable to hold
the party and the government together during the years immediately
ahead. The Staff's current view is that Nehru,?s control will
probably be threatened to some extent during the next yearn a two,
in part because of the basic divisions within the Congress Party
and in part because of the apparently growing strength of leftist
and other opposition elements in South India as a result of eco.
nomic discontent,
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