QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC JANUARY-MARCH 1957

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00935A000400270003-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 27, 1998
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: April 30, 1957
• Content Type: IM

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7
CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY
NO DISSEMINATION ABROAD
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT
IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
JANUARY-MARCH 1957
CIA/RR IM-450
30 April 1957
WARNING
THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE
NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE
MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, USC, SECS.
793 AND 794, THE TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF
WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS
PROHIBITED BY LAW.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY
NO DISSEMINATION ABROAD
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FOREWORD
This memorandum is the eighth in a series to be issued on a
quarterly basis summarizing production of aircraft in the Sino-
Soviet Bloc. The estimates presented are issued to satisfy the
requests of consumers for the most recent estimates of production
of aircraft in the Bloc and are intended to supersede those con-
tained in previous ORfl publications. Changes in the present esti-
mates from past estimates are the results of (1) the inclusion of
new data on average days worked per week in Soviet aircraft plants
and (2) more recent intelligence information. No interagency co-
ordination has been attempted, and no dissemination of this memo-
randum outside'CIA. is planned.
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CONTENTS
Page
1. Trends in Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1
2. Production in the,USSR . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1
3. Production in tjae European Satellites and in Communist
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3
1. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc, by Number, 1954 Through the First Quarter
of 1957 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5
2. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc, by Weight, 1954 Through the First Quarter
of 1957 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6
3. Estimated Cumulative Production of Selected Aircraft
in the USSR, Through the First Quarter of 1957 . . . .
7
4. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR,
by Number, 1954 Through the First Quarter of 1957 . .
8
5. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR,
by Weight, 1954 Through the First Quarter of 1957 ? ?
9
6. US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Number,
1954 Through the First Quarter of 1957 . . . . . . . .
10
7. US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Weight,
1954 Through the First Quarter of 1957 . . . . . . . .
11
8. Estimated Production of Aircraft in'the European
Satellites and in Communist China, by Number,
1954 Through the First Quarter of 1957 . . . . . . . .
12
9. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European
Satellites and in Communist China, by Weight,
1954 Through the First Quarter of 1957 . . . . . . .
13
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Figure 1. US and USSR: Production of Military
Aircraft, by Number, 1954 Through the
First Quarter of 1957 . . . . . . . . . . .
Figure 2. US and USSR: Production of Military
Aircraft, by'Weight, 1954 Through the
First Quarter of 1957 . . . . . . . . . . .
Following Page
Inside
Back Cover
Inside
Back Cover
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CIA/RR IM-45o (ORR Project 33.1659)
QUARTERLY 1STIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT
IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
JANUARY-MARCH 1957*
1. Trends in Production.
In the first quarter of 1957, estimated total production of air-
craft, by number, in the Sino-Soviet Bloc increased about 4 percent
above production in the previous quarter.** A corresponding increase
also was noted in terms of airframe weight. These increases were
mainly in production of fighters in the USSR, but Soviet transport
aircraft also showed slight increases both in number of aircraft and
in airframe weight. Approximately 51+ percent of the aircraft pro-
duced by the Bloc during the first quarter of 1957 are believed to
have been combat types.-
2. Production in the USSR.
The Soviet share of estimated total production of air raft by
the Sino-Soviet Bloc during the first quarter of 1957 reined about
the same as in the previous quarter./ Of the 2,300 aircraft estimated
to have been produced by the Bloc in the first quarter of 1957, about
1,800 aircraft, or approximately 80'percent,'were produced inothe
USSR. Almost 92 percent of the estimated total production of aircraft,
by airframe weight, in the Bloc took place in the USSR, thus indi-
cating that the Satellites still are producing relatively lighter
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this memorandum repre-
sent the best judgment of ORR as of 1 April 1957.
Estimated production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc from
1951+ through the first quarter of 1957 is given by number in Table 1,
p. 5, below, and by airframe weight in Table 2, p.'6, below.
xxx Estimated cumulative production of selected Soviet aircraft
through the first quarter of 1957 is given in'Table 3, p. 7, below.
XxXX For the purposes of this memorandum, combat types include bom-
ber, fighter, and ground attack aircraft. Other aircraft such as
helicopters and transports have uses under both. combat and noncombat
conditions.
/ Estimated :production of aircraft in the USSR from 1951+ through
the first quarter of 1957 is given by number in Table 1+, p. 8, below,
and by airframe weight in Table 5, p. 9, below.
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25X1 B4d
aircraft. About 88 percent of the estimated total production of com-
bat aircraft in the Bloc during the first quarter of 1957 is believed
to have taken place in the USSR.
It is estimated that total Soviet production of combat aircraft
during the first quarter of 1957 exceeded that of the US by about
36 percent in terms of numbers and by about 15 percent in terms of
airframe weight.* This estimate is accounted for by a decline of
about 28 percent in US production of combat aircraft in the first
quarter of 1957 and by 4 increase of about 6 percent in Soviet pro-
duction of combat aircraft during the same period.
Recent intelligence information has caused several major changes
to be made in previously published estimates of Soviet production of
aircraft. Estimated Production of the Bear, a heavy turboprop bom-
ber, at Plant No. 18 in Kuybyshev has been lowered again as a result
of recent sightings which revealed no Bears in the area of the fac-
tory. Analysis indicates
a reduction in the estimated number of Badger (Tu-16) medium jet
bombers produced at Plant No. 61+ in Voronezh.
Although there has been no significant change in the estimated
cumulative production of the Camel (Tu-101+) jet transport, it should
be noted that Plant No. 135 in Kharkov has been established definitely
now as the site for production of the Camel since early 1956 rather
than Plant No. 22 in Kazan' as previously believed. As a result of
Designer O.K. Antonov's visit to England in September 1956, Plant
No. 1-73 in Kiev is believed to be producing 10 prototypes of the
Ukraina, a new 4-engine turboprop transport. The first aircraft is
believed to have been completed at the plant during the fourth quarter
of 1956.
Conflicting information concerning production of a new jet fighter
at Pant No. 168 in Rostov precludes a positive decision as to the
present activity of this plant. Until clarifying information becomes
available, Plant No. 1.68 is being carried as a possible producer of
the Faceplate, a Mikoyan-designed jet fighter.
* Production of combat aircraft in the USSR from 195+ through the
first quarter of 1957 is compared with that in the US by number in
Figure 1, inside back cover, and by airframe weight in Figure 2, in-
side back cover. For additional comparison, US military acceptances
from 195+ through the first quarter of 1957 are given by number in
Table 6, p. 10, below, and by airframe weight in Table 7, p. 11, below.
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25X1 B4d
25X1 B4d
have confirmed the pre-
vious estimate of production of the Bison, a heavy jet bomber, at
Plant No. 23 in Moscow.
there has been no change in
the external configuration of the Bison since the third quarter of
1956. On 17 March 1957, seven Bisons were sighted on the factory
airfield. This total represents the largest number of Bisons ob-
served on the field to date. Accumulation of these aircraft on the
airfield could be the result of bad weather which prevented takeoffs
or the result of a,-shortage of component parts.
3. Production in the European Satellites and in Communist China.
In the first quarter of,.1957 the European Satellites produced an
estimated total of about 370 aircraft, or approximately 16 percent
of total production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc. During this
same period, Communist China is estimated to have produced 75 air-
craft, all piston-engine trainers, accounting for about 3 percent of
the estimated total production by the Bloc.* Czechoslovakia and
Poland remain the largest producers among the Satellites, accounting
for about 60 percent and 21 percent, respectively, or a combined
total of about 81 percent of Satellite production of aircraft by
number.
Recent sightings by the US Air Attache to Czechoslovakia of Crate
(IL-14) transports at the Prague/Letnany factory airfield for the
Avia plant indicate that series production of the Crate is well under
way. The current rate of production is estimated at four aircraft
per month. The majority of new Crates sighted were painted with the
blue trim of Aeroflot,** and three Crates carried Soviet registration
numbers.
25X1 B4d
The Vodochody plant in Czechoslovakia is continuing production of
the Midget (U-MIG-15) and the. Fagot (MIG-15) aircraft to meet the
requirements of the Sino-Soviet Bloc and to support foreign aid programs.
* Estimated production of aircraft in the European Satellites and
Communist China from 1954 through the first quarter of 1957 is given
by number in Table 8, p. 12, below, and by airframe weight in Table 9,
p. 13, below.
X The carrier of the Main Administration of the Civil Air Fleet --
Glavnoye Upravleniye Grazhdanskogo Vozdushnogo Flota.
S-E-C--R---h`--T---
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It is considered likely that, during 1957, evidence will become avail-
able indicating that production of the Fresco (MIG-17) and perhaps
a transport or trainer type of aircraft has been initiated at the
large Mielec plant in Poland. The Hare (Mi-1) light helicopter is
in production at Lublin/Swidnik.
Reports of shortages of.aircraft materials and construction delays
at Dresden suggest that considerable slippage will occur in the planned
program for production of the Crate in East Germany. Five Crates were
assembled from Soviet parts in 1956. It is anticipated that aircraft
will be produced on a.prototype production basis until series produc-
tion can be sustaine~L, probably after mid-1957.
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Table 3
Estimated Cumulative Production of Selected Aircraft in the USSR a/
Through the First Quarter of 1957
Model
Type-of Aircraft
Production to 1 A
ril 195
p
7
Badger
Jet medium bomber
1,100 J
Beagle
Jet light bomber
6,600
Bear
Turboprop heavy bomber
45 c
Bison
Jett heavy bomber
54
Camel
Jet transport
43
Crate
Piston transport
630
Farmer
Jet fighter
1400
Flashlight
Jet all-weather interceptor
1,300.
Fresco
Jet fighter
10,000
Horse
Helicopter
56.
Hound
Helicopter
530
New fighter
Jet fighter
280
a. Figures are rounded to two significant digits. Totals are de-
rived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with the sum of
the rounded components.
b. This total was given incorrectly in the last memorandum of this
series, CIA/RR :M-446, Quarterly Estimate of the Production of Air-
craft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc October-December 1956, 21 January
1957, SECRET CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY. Instead of 70 -units, the
figure for total production of the Badger should have been 1,000
units.
c. This figure includes seven prototypes seen in July 1955?
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