QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC OCTOBER-DECEMBER 1956

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00935A000400230002-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 21, 1998
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: January 21, 1957
• Content Type: IM

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INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT
IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
OCTOBER-DECEMBER 1956
CIA/RR IM-446
21 January 1957
WARNING
THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE NATIONAL
DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE
ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, USC, SECS. 793 AND 794, THE
TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN
UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
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FOREWORD
This memorandum is the seventh in a series to be issued on a quar-
terly basis summarizing production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc.
The estimates presented are issued to satisfy the requests of consumers
for the most recent estimates of production of aircraft in the Bloc and
are intended to supersede those contained in previous ORE publications.
Changes in the present estimates from past estimates are the results
of (1) a re-evaluation of the amount of floorspace utilized by individ-
ual workers, (2) revisions of specific airframe weights, and (3) more
recent intelligence information. No interagency coordination has been
attempted, and no dissemination of this memorandum outside of CIA is
planned.
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CONTENTS
Page
1. Trends in Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ? . ? 1
2.
Production in the USSR . . . . ? . 2
3. Production in the European Satellites and in Communist
China . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tables
1. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc,
by I'TLUilber, 19511- Through 1955 . . . ? . . . . . . . . . . 11.
2. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc,
by Wei ,h t, 19544 lnrouh 1956 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
3. Estimated Cumulative Production of Selected Aircraft
in the USS'i, Yhrough 1956 6
4? Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR, by Number,
1951 Throw-h 1956. . . ? . ? . . . ? . . . . . . . . 7
5. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR, by Weight, 8
19511? ThrouL;h 1950' . . . . . . . . . . ? . . ? . . ? . . . 8
6. US 1ilitary Aircraft Acceptances, by Number, 195+ Through
1956 9
7. US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Weight, 1951 Through
1956 10
8. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European Satellites
and in CoLmiuzist China, by Number, 1954 Through 1956 . . 11
9. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European Satellites
and in Coz a;nua.ist China, by Weight, 1951+ Through 1956 . . 12
v
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Charts
Follovino Page
Figure 1. US and USSR: Production of Military
Aircraft,, by Number, 195+ Through
1956 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . '12
Figure 2. US and USSR: Production of Military
Aircraft, by Weight., 1954 Through
1956 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Table 3
Estimated Cumulative Production of Selected Aircraft in the USSR a,/
Through 1956
D 2e O? Aircraft
Production to 1 January 1957
Badger
Jet rnediuxn bomber
840
;eagle
jet light borSber
6,500
Bear
Turboprop heavy bomber
74
Bison
Jet heavy bomber
48
Cancel
Jet transport i
35
Farmer
Jet fighter
1, 400
Flashlight
Jet all-weather interceptor
1,100
Fresco
Jet fighter
9,800
Horse
Helicopter
47
Hound
Helicopter
500
New fighter
Jet fighter
150
a. Figures are rounded to two si-nificant dia'i_ts.
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25X1 B4d
at Plant No. 18 in Kuybyshev. On the basis of this program of modi-
fication, estimates of production at Plant No. 18 of the Bear, a heavy
turboprop bomber, have been lowered. Since the publication of the
last memorandum in this series, it has become apparent that a newly
configurated Bison aircraft was put into production near the end of
the third quarter of 1956 at Plant No. 23 in Moscow? The latest model,
which represents the seventh configurational modification of this air-
craft, has an elongated nose, and the horizontal stabilizer has no
dihedral. Be innin ossibly as early as July 1956, a new type of air-
craft was also observed. Ten aircraft of this new
type of series are believed to have been produced from the end of July
to December 1956. In December a third type of series appeared. At
least three aircraft were produced in this third and latest series by
the end of December 1956. As of late December 1956, at least 1.8 Bison
had been produced at Plant No. 23.
Further evaluation of information concerning Plant No. 30 in Moscow
leads to the conclusion that this plant is engaged in the production
of the Crate (Il-14). A previous opinion held that the plant was mod-
ifying the Coach (I1-12) to the Crate.
Production of a new jet fighter continues at Plant No. 168 in
Rostov. Although information is still limited, this airplane is
probably the Faceplate, one of the jet fighters shown for the first
time at the Aviation Day Air Show of June 1956. It is believed
that Plant No. 31 in Tiflis has begun production of a new type of
jet fighter. Recent observations of the factory airfield and the
plant vicinity disclose a greatly reduced number of new Fresco (111G-17)
fighters in the area.
3. Production in the European Satellites and in Communist China.
In the fourth quarter of 1956 the European Satellites produced an
estimated total of 314-0 aircraft, about 15 percent of total production
of all aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc. Communist China is estimated
to have produced 74+ aircraft, all piston-engine trainers, during the
fourth quarter of 1956, representing about 3 percent of estimated total
production by the Bloc.* Czechoslovakia and Poland remain the largest
producers among the Satellites, accounting for about 59 percent and 21
percent, respectively, or a combined total of about 80 percent of
Satellite production of aircraft by number.
* Estimated production of aircraft in the European Satellites and Com-
munist China from 195+ through 1956 is given by number in Table 8,
p. 11, below, and by airframe weight in Table 9, p. 12, below.
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2. Production in the USSR?
The USSR continues to produce most of the aircraft manufactured in
the Sino-Soviet Bloc.* Of the 2,300 aircraft estimated to have been
produced by the Bloc in the. fourth quarter of 1956, 1,900 aircraft,
about 83 percent, were produced in the USSR. In terms of airframe
weight, about 94 percent of the estimated total production of aircraft
in the Bloc took place in the USSR. This figure emphasizes again the
fact that the Satellites produce relatively lighter aircraft.
In 1956 the Soviet. share of estimated total production of aircraft
by the Sino-Soviet Bloc decreased by about 3 percent in terms of numbers
and showed no appreciable change in terms of airframe weight. For the
second consecutive year the USSR produced about 88 percent of all the
combat aircraft produced by the Sino-Soviet Bloc.
It is estimated that total Soviet production of combat aircraft
during the fourth quarter of 1956 exceeded that of the US by about
2 percent in terms of numbers and by about 8 percent in terms of air-
frame weight.
Recent intelligence information has resulted in several changes
in previously published estimates of Soviet production of aircraft.
Since the publication of the last memorandum in this series, infor-
mation has become available which changes the estimate of activity at
Plant No. 64 in Voronezh. It is now tentatively assumed that since
1955 this plant has been engaged in Badger (Tu-16) production rather
than in a program of Badger modification. Recent information indi-
cates that a program of Bull (Tu-4) modification has been in progress
Estimated production of aircraft in the USSR from 1954 through
1956 is given by number in Table 4, p. 7, below, and by airframe
weight in Table 5, p. 8, below.
** Production of combat aircraft in the USSR from 1954 through
1956 is compared with that in the US by number in Figure 1, follow-
ing p. 12, and by airframe weight in Figure 2, following p. 12. For
additional comparison, US military acceptances from 1954 through
1956 are given by number in Table 6, p. 9, below, and by airframe
weight in Table 7, p. 10, below.
CIA/RR IM-437, uarter Estimate of the Production of Aircraft
in the Sino-Soviet Bloc J -Se tember 1 25 October 1956.
SECRET CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY.
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CIA/RR IM-446 S-E-C-R-E-T
(ORR Project 33,1658)
QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT
IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
OCTOBER-DECEMBER 1956*
1. Trends in Production.
In the fourth quarter of 1956, estimated production of aircraft
by the Sino-Soviet Bloc remained about the same as in the previous
quarter.** A slight increase was noted in production of transport
aircraft in the USSR, and Soviet production of fighters also con-
tinued to show an upward trend.Xxx Bloc production in terms of
airframe weight registered an increase of about 3 percent above
production in the previous quarter. The increase in airframe weight
reflects the rising rates of production of Bear and Crate (ii-14)
aircraft and the replacement of the Fresco (MCG-17) fighter by the
heavier Farmer, by.the Flashlight, and by an unidentified new fighter.
About 56 percent of the aircraft produced by the Bloc during the
fourth quarter of 1956 are believed to have been combat types.
Although total production of aircraft, by number, in the Sino-
Soviet Bloc during 1956 eras about 2 percent less than in 1955,
production in terms of airframe weight increased about 14 percent
as a result of the trend toward greater weight in modern aircraft.
Combat types of aircraft accounted for about 55 percent of total
production of aircraft by the Sino-Soviet Bloc in 1956.
The estimates and conclusions contained in this memorandum
represent the best judgment of ORR as of 31 December 1956.
Estimated production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc from
1954 through 1956 is given by number in Table 1, p. 4, below, and
by airframe weight in Table 2, p. 5, below.
XXX Estimated cumulative production of selected Soviet aircraft
through 1956 is given in Table 3, p. 6, below.
For the purposes of this memorandum, combat types include
bomber, fighter, and ground attack aircraft. Other aircraft such
as helicopters and transports have uses. under both combat and
noncombat conditions.
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CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY
CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY
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