QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC JULY-SEPTEMBER 1956

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CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3
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RIFPUB
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S
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19
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November 9, 2016
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August 27, 1998
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3
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October 25, 1956
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IM
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Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC JULY-SEPTEMBER 1956 CIA/RR IM-437 25 October 1956 WARNING THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, USC, SECS. 793 AND 794, THE TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW. CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY !"1 T /V T T T Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 FOREWORD This memorandum is the sixth in a series to be issued on a quar- terly basis summarizing production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc. The estimates presented are intended to supersede those con- tained in previous ORR publications and are issued to satisfy the requests of consumers for the most recent estimates of production of aircraft in the Bloc. Recently acquired reliable data on pro- duction of spare parts for US aircraft have been incorporated into the present estimates. In addition, official US Air Force estimates of airframe weights for Farmer and Flashlight aircraft have been revised again, this time in an upward direction. Changes in the present estimates from past estimates are the result of the inclusion of new data on spare parts, revisions of official estimates of air- frame weights, and more recent intelligence information. No inter- agency coordination has been attempted, and no dissemination of this memorandum outside of CIA is planned. Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 CONTENTS Page 1. Trends in Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2. Production in the USSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 3. Production in the European Satellites and in Communist China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, by Number, 1951+ Through the Third Quarter of 1956 ....................... 6 2. Estimated Production of. Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, by Weight, 1951+ Through the Third Quarter of 1956 ....................... 3. Estimated Cumulative Production or Selected Aircraft in the USSR, Through the Third Quarter of 1956 . . . 8 1+. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR, by Num- ber, 1951+ Through the Third Quarter of 1956 . . . . . 5. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR, by Weight, 1951+ Through the Third Quarter of 1956 10 6. US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Number, 1951+ Through the Third Quarter of 1956 . . . . . . . 11 7. US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Weight, 195+ Through the Third Quarter of 1956 . . . . . . . 12 8. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European Satellites and Communist China, by Number, 1951+ Through the Third Quarter of 1956 . . . . . . . 13 9. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European Satellites and Communist China, by Weight, 1951+ Through the Third Quarter of 1956 . . . . . . . 11+ Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Charts Following Page Figure 1. US and USSR: Production of Military Aircraft, by Number, 1951E Through the Third Quarter of 1956 . . . . . . 14 Figure 2. US and USSR: Production of Military Aircraft, by Weight, 1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956 . . . . . . 14 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 CIA/RR IM-437 (ORR Project 33.,1552) QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC JULY-SEPTEMBER 195677- 1. Trends in Production. In the third. quarter of 1956, estimated production of aircraft by the Sino-Soviet Bloc increased about 5 percent over production in the previous quarter.** The increase continued to be mainly in the production of fighter aircraft in the USSR, where production of new models is still advancing along estimated production accelera- tion curves. Production in terms of airframe weight registered an even larger increase, somewhat less than 10 percent over produc- tion of the previous quarter. The larger increase in airframe weight reflects rising rates .of production of Bear and Camel aircraft and the replacement of the Fresco (MIG-17) fighter by the heavier Farmer, by the Flashlight, and by an unidentified new fighter. Somewhat less than 60 percent of the aircraft produced during the third quarter of 1956 are believed to have been combat types.*Xxx 2. Production in the USSR. The Soviet share of estimated total production of aircraft by the Sino-Soviet :Bloc remained essentially unchanged during the third quarter of 1956.E In both the second and third quarters of 1956 the Soviet share was between 80 and 85 percent of total production by the * The estimates and conclusions contained in this memorandum represent 'the best judgment of ORR as of 15 October 1956. ** Estimated production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc from 1954 through the third quarter of 1956, by number, is given in Table 1, p. 6, below, and, by airframe weight, in Table 2, p. 7, below. XXX Estimated cumulative production of selected Soviet aircraft through the third quarter of 1956 is given in Table 3, p. 8, below. XxXx For the. purposes of this memorandum, combat types include bom- ber, fighter, and ground attack aircraft. Other aircraft such as helicopters and transports have uses under both combat and noncombat conditions. / Estimated production of aircraft in the USSR from 1954 through the third quarter of 1956, by number, is given in Table 4, p. 9, below, and, by airframe weight, in Table 5, p. 10, below. Approved For.Release 1999/09/21.: CIA-RDP79T00935A000.400140003-3 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Bloc. On the basis of airframe weight, almost 95 percent of produc- tion of all aircraft took place in the USSR, a slight increase over the second quarter of 1956. This figure continues to emphasize the fact that the other members of the Bloc produce relatively lighter aircraft. More than 85 percent of all the combat aircraft produced by the Bloc during the third quarter of 1956 is believed to have been produced in the USSR. Recent intelligence information has resulted in several changes in previously published estimates of Soviet production of aircraft. As noted in the last memorandum of this series,* information which became available in late June 1956 indicated that a further reduc- tion in estimated production of the Bison might be necessary. Analy- sis of this new material led to the conclusion that 35 Bisons had been produced by the end of June 1956 instead of the 56 previously reported. This reduction in the estimate of production of the Bison from previous estimates is strongly supported by the limited number of sightings of Bisons at the producing plant, which is located in Moscow. US Air Force estimates carry production of the Badger at Plant No. 64 in Voronezh, based upon photographs of these aircraft as they were being worked upon on the ramp in front of the plant. This memorandum carries this activity as a modification of the Badger rather than as production because, among other reasons, production of the Badger at Plant No. 64, added to the known production at Plants No. 1 in Kuybyshev and No. 22 in Kazan', would be inconsistently higher than fairly firm order-of-battle estimates of Soviet Badger strength. As a result of the visit of General Twining to Plant No. 30 in Moscow, it has been established that the plant is engaged in some aspect of production of the Crate (Il-l4), the conventional Soviet transport. Whether or not this activity is production of the Crate or a modification of the Coach (I1-12) to the Crate is not clear. Analysis of the information on Plant No. 30 supports the tentative conclusion that the activity is modification of the Coach to the Crate. One new jet fighter which was carried in the previous estimate has been dropped from the estimate presented in this memorandum. Information has been received which indicates that what formerly CIA BR IM- 32, Quarterly Estimate of the Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc,April-June 195 , 20 July 195b. SECRET CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY. Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 appeared to be a new fighter in production at Plant No. 292 in Saratov was actually the Flashlight. On the basis of a second sighting at the plant airfield, this memorandum continues to carry production of a new fighter at Plant No. 168 in Rostov. Identification of this fighter is not firm, but limited information suggests that it may be the Faceplate, new jet fighter shown for the first time at the 1956 Aviation. Day Airshow. It is estimated that during the third quarter of 1956 Soviet pro- duction of military aircraft exceeded that of the US by about 20 per- cent.* In terms of airframe weight, Soviet and US production of mili- tary aircraft were roughly the same. 3. Production in the European Satellites and in Communist China. In the third quarter of 1956 the European Satellites produced an estimated total of 330 aircraft, or about 14 percent of total pro- duction of all aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc. It is estimated that 70 aircraft, all piston-engine trainers, were produced by Com- munist China during the third quarter of 1956, representing about 3 percent of estimated total production by the Bloc.'(* Czechoslovakia and Poland remain the largest producers among the Satellites, account- ing for about 72 percent and 24 percent, respectively, or a combined total of about 96 percent of Satellite production of aircraft by num- ber. Aircraft sightings by the US Air Attache to Czechoslovakia during July and August at the large Prague/Vodochody Fagot (MIG-15) jet fighter plant in Czechoslovakia indicate a decline in production. This plant may be phasing out production of the obsolete Fagot in favor of the more advanced Fresco jet fighter. * Production of military aircraft in the USSR is compared with that in the US from 1954 through the third quarter of 1956, by number, in Figure 1, following p. 14, and, by airframe weight, in Figure 2, follow- ing p. 14. For additional comparison, US military aircraft acceptances from 1954 through the third quarter of 1956, by number, are given in Table 6, p. 11, below, and, by airframe weight, in Table 7, p. 12,. below. ** Estimated production of aircraft in the European Satellites and Communist China from 1954 through the third quarter of 1956, by num- ber, is given in Table 8, p. 13, below, and, by airframe weight, in Table 9, p. 14, below. Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Production of the Crate is proceeding slowly in Czechoslovakia and East Germany. Series production is expected to begin at the Czechoslovak Avia plant in the last quarter of 1956. In an air display on 26 August 1956, Poland exhibited four Sm-1 (Soviet Hare, Mi-l) light helicopters. These aircraft are believed to have been the first units produced at the Lublin/Swidnik aircraft plant. Series production of this aircraft is anticipated in the light of European Satellite requirements for a utility helicopter. An analysis of intelligence on Communist China indicates that a program of production of aircraft is under way. The construction of facilities for production of aircraft and the initiation of produc- tion of aircraft have been priority targets under the Chinese First Five Year Plan (1953-57). The program of Soviet aid has been geared to these objectives by providing technical assistance, training for Chinese personnel, and tooling and materials as required. New facili- ties for production of aircraft have been constructed and have been active in the assembly and repair of jet-fighter and conventional- trainer aircraft. The Chinese Communist press announced on 29 September 1954 that the first successful flight of Chinese-made aircraft had taken place on 26 July 1954. It is believed that this release referred to the flight testing of a trial production group of conventional Yak-18 trainers. The Yak-.18 is probably the most simply constructed air- frame among Soviet aircraft. It is estimated that the first series- produced trainer was accepted in July 1955 and that as many as 205 trainers were produced through September 1956. On 8 September .L956 the Chinese Communist press announced the successful production of a jet aircraft. This effort is believed to be the start of a program of production of jet aircraft. It is esti- mated that the Chinese Communists will perform final assembly from Soviet-produced parts on a series of 100 jet fighter aircraft, prob- ably in the Fresco (MIG-17) class. This final assembly operation con- stitutes approximately 12 percent of the production effort on this aircraft and is a necessary step in the initiation of complete Chinese production. It is estimated that five jet aircraft will have been assembled through the third quarter of 1956. These aircraft have not Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935AO00400140003-3 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 been included as produced by Communist China in Table 8* and Table 9,** because the fabrication of the aircraft is included under Soviet pro- duction. The USSR will provide the aircraft engines, accessories, elec- tronic gear, armaments, and the like, which are required for both fighter and trainer aircraft. P. 13, below. ** P. 14, below. Approved For Release 1999/09/21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Table 1 Estimated Production. of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, by Number a/ 1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956 1st Quarter 2d Quarter 3d Quarter of of of Type of Aircraft 1954 1955 1956 1956 1956 Heavy Medium Light 2 160 1,300 25 300 980 4 88 180 4 91 170 6 93 170 Turboprop bomber Heavy 0 6 15 23 28 Jet fighter 4;,300 3,800 780 840 1,000 Ground attack 210 60 0 0 0 Transport Trainer 1.,700 830 260 310 330 Jet 1;,200 1,200 240 230 160 Piston 1,100 1,300 360 370 380 Other b 64o 390 110 120 120 Total 11,000 8,900 2,000 2 200 2 300 , , a. Rounded to reflect the maximum number of significant digits con- sistent with estimating procedures. b. Helicopters, gliders, seaplanes, and utility aircraft. Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Table 2 Estimated Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, by Weight a 1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956 Type of Aircraft 1954 1955 1st Quarter of 1956 2d Quarter of 1956 3d Quarter of 1956 Jet bomber Heavy 220 2,800 450 450 670 Medium 8,300 15,000 4,500 4,6oo 4,700 Light 23,000 18,000 3,300 3,200 3,200 Turboprop bomber Heavy 0 540 1,300 2,100 2,500 Jet fighter 30,000 29,000 6,8oo 7,600 9,100 Ground attack 1,700 500 0 0 0 Transport 9,500 3,600 1,700 2,200 2,400 Trainer Jet 8,600 10,000 1,6oo 1,4oo 1,000 Piston 1,500 1,900 550 560 570 Other b 6,300 4,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 Total 90,000 85,000 21,000 23,000 25,000 a. These figures include production of spare parts and are rounded to reflect the maximum number of significant digits consistent with esti- mating procedures. b. Helicopters, gliders, seaplanes, and utility aircraft. Thousand Pounds of Airframe Weight Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Table 3 Estimated Cumulative Production of Selected Aircraft in the USSR J . Through the Third Quarter of 1956 Type of Aircraft Production to 1 October 1956 Badger Jet medium bomber 740 Beagle Jet light bomber 6,300 b Bear Turboprop heavy bomber 72 Bison Jet heavy bomber 41 Camel Jet transport 26 Farmer Jet fighter 1,200 Flashlight Jet all-weather interceptor 890 Fresco Jet fighter 9,700 Horse Helicopter 43 Hound Helicopter 470 New fighter Jet fighter 48 a. Rounded to reflect the maximum number of significant digits con- sistent with estimating procedures. b. This total was given incorrectly in the last memorandum of this series, CIA/RR IM-432, Quarterly Estimate of the Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, April-June 1956, 20 July 1956, SECRET CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY. Instead of 4,500 units, the figure should have been 6,200 units. Approved For Release 1999/09/21.: CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Table U. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR, by Number a 1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956 1st Quarter of 2d Quarter of 3d Quarter of Type of Aircraft 1954 1955 1956 1956 1956 Heavy 2 25 4 4 6 Medium 160 300 88 91 93 Light 1,300 980 180 170 170 Turboprop Bomber Heavy Jet fighter Transport 0 3,800 6 3,200 15 670 23 730 28 840 Jet 0 5 6 6 9 Piston 1,700 810 240 280 300 Jet 1,100 920 140 120 130 Piston 830 830 210 210 210 Other J 640 390 110 110 110 Total 9,500 7,500 1,700 1,800 1,900 a. Rounded to reflect the maximum number of significant digits consistent with estimating procedures. b. Helicopters, gliders, and seaplanes. Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Table 5 Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR, by Weight a/ 1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956 Thousand Pounds of Airframe Weight Type of Aircraft 1954 1955 1st Quarter 2d Quarter 3d Quarter of of of 1956 1956 1 6 95 Jet bomber Heavy 220 2,800 450 450 670 Medium 8,300 15,000 4,500 4,600 4 700 Light Turboprop bomber 23,000 18,000 3,300 3,200 , 3,200 Heavy 0 540 1,300 2,100 2,500 Jet fighter 2 7 000 26 000 6 100 Transport , , , 7,000 8,100 Jet 0 310 370 370 Piston 9,500 3,300 1,200 1,6oo Jet 8,100 8,100 930 790 Piston 920 920 250 250 Other b/ 6,300 4,200 1,200 1,200 Total 84,000 79,000 20,000 21,000 560 1,700 830 250 1,200 24,000 a. These figures include production of spare parts and are rounded to reflect the maximum number of significant digits consistent with estimating procedures. b. Helicopters, gliders, and seaplanes. Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 wliwWo Table 6 US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Number a/ 1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956 Type of Aircraft 1951E 1955 1st Quarter of 1956 2d Quarter of 1956 3d Quarter 1956fW Heavy 28 34 6 12 32 Medium 767 530 128 132 145 Light 106 155 29 16 20 Ground attack 86o 631 135 107 121 Fighter 3,518 4,017 600 607 64o Transport 634 536 99 121 81 Trainer 1,602 1,439 286 206 190 Other C/ 1,235 701 218 233 278 Total 8,750 8,043 1,501 1,434 1,507 a. The source for these figures is Office of the Assistant Secre- tary of Defense (Supply and Logistics), Statistics Branch, US Military Aircraft Acceptances, 1953-56, Number and Airframe Weight, September 1956. CONFIDENTIAL. b. Includes preliminary data for September 1956. c. Helicopters, flying boats, amphibians, and lighter-than-air. Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Table 7 US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Weight a/ 1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956 Thousand Pounds of Airframe Weight Type of Aircraft 1954 1955 1st Quarter 2d Quarter 3d Quarter of of of 1956 1956 1956 b/ Heavy 3,304 3,853 678 1,355 3,601 Medium 37,296 26,377 5,901 5,863 6,463 Light 1,834 2,724 547 296 375 Ground at-tack 7,793 6,034 1,369 1,189 1,298 Fighter 35,390 43,161 7,068 7,145 7,261 Transport 30,614 20,697 3,611 4,549 2,937 Trainer 9,633 4 7,453 1,064 740 763 Other 1 ,831 4,397 1,160 1,441 1,200 Total 130,695 114,696 21,398 22,578 23,898 a. The source for these figures is Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Supply and Logistics), Statistics Branch, US Military Air- craft Acceptances, 1953-56, Number and Airframe Weight, September 195 . CONFIDENTIAL. b. Includes preliminary data for September 1956. c. Helicopters, flying boats, amphibians, and lighter-than-air. Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Approved For Release 1999/09/21: CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European Satellites and Communist China, by Number 1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956 a. Rounded to reflect the maximum number of significant digits consistent with estimating procedures. b. See discussion of Chinese Communist aircraft production under 3, P. 3, above. - 13 - Country Type of Aircraft 1954 1955 1st Quarter of 1956 2d Quarter of 1956 3d Quarter of 1956 Czechoslovakia Jet fighter 390 240 33 33 90 Ground attack 210 60 0 0 0 Jet trainer 90 310 105 105 30 Piston trainer 190 360 90 90 90 Transport 0 18 Other 0 0 Total 880 990 240 250 24o Poland Jet fighter 150 310 79 79 79 Piston trainer 60 0 0 0 0 Light helicopter 0 0 0 2 2 Total 210 310 79 81 81 Bulgaria Piston trainer 0 0 0 0 0 Rumania Piston trainer 24 24 6 6 6 Hungary Piston trainer 24 24 6 6 6 East Germany Transport 0 0 0 1 1 Communist China b/ Piston trainer 0 23 51 61 70 Grand total 1,140 1,380 380 410 400 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European Satellites and Conan mist China, by Weight a/ 1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956 1st Quarter of 2d Quarter of 3d Quarter of Country Tytie of Aircraft 1954 1955 1956 1956 1956 Czechoslovakia Jet fighter 2,300 1,400 200 200 530 Ground attack 1,700 500 0 0 0 Jet trainer 550 1,900 650 650 180 Piston trainer 450 960 240 240 240 Transport 0 28 36 47 66 Other 0 0 1 4 8 5100 4,800 1,100 1,100 1,000 Jet fighter 860 1,800 470 470 470 Piston trainer 61 0 0 0 Light helicopter 0 0 0 6 -6 920 1,800 470 470 470 Bulgaria Piston trainer 0 0 0 0 Rumania Piston trainer 22 22 6 6 Hungary Piston trainer 17 17 6 6 East Germany Transport 0 0 0 19 Communist China 0 23 52 62 6,000 6,700 1,600 1,700 a. These figures include production of spare parts and are rounded to reflect the maximum number of significant digits consistent with estimating procedures. b. See discussion of Chinese Communist aircraft production under 3, p. 3, above. Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3 US a and USSR' PRODUCTION OF MILITARY AIRCRAFT; BY NUMBER 1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956 1954 1955 Us USSR First Quarter 1956 a US totals include preliminary data for Sept. 1956. b USSR totals are rounded. Bombers and fighters. US Bombers US Fighters and ground attack USSR Bombers USSR Fighters and ground attack US USSR Second Quarter 1956 us USSR Third Quarter 1956 25656 10-56 CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140003-3