QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC JULY-SEPTEMBER 1956

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140001-5
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 27, 1998
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 25, 1956
• Content Type: IM

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CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT
IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
JULY-SEPTEMBER 1956
CIA/RR IM-437
25 October 1956
WARNING
THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE NATIONAL
DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE
ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, USC, SECS. 793 AND 791i, THE
TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN
UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY
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FOREWORD
This memorandum is the sixth in a series to be issued on a quar-
terly basis summarizing production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc. The estimates presented are intended to supersede those con-
tained in previous ORR publications and are issued to satisfy the
requests of consumers for the most recent estimates of production
of aircraft in the Bloc. Recently acquired reliable data on pro-
duction of spare parts for US aircraft have been incorporated into
the present estimates. In addition, official US Air Force estimates
of airframe weights for Farmer and Flashlight aircraft have been
revised again, this time in an upward direction. Changes in the
present estimates from past estimates are the result of the inclusion
of new data on spare parts, revisions of official estimates of air-
frame weights, and more recent intelligence information. No inter-
agency coordination has been attempted, and no dissemination of this
memorandum outside of CIA is planned.
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CONTENTS
1. Trends in Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2. Production in the USSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
3. Production in the European Satellites and in Communist
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Tables
1. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc, by Number, 1954 Through the Third Quarter
of 1956 .... .................... 6
2. Estimated Production of, Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc, by Weight, 1954 Through the Third Quarter
of 1956 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3. Estimated Cumulative Production or Selected Aircraft
in the USSR, Through the Third Quarter of 1956 . . . 8
4. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR, by Num-
ber, 1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956 . . . . .
5. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR,
by Weight, 1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956 . . 10
6.
US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Number, -
1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956 . . . . . . . 11
7. US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Weight,
1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956 . . . . . . . 12
8. Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European
Satellites and Communist China, by Number,
1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956 . . . . . . . 13
9?
Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European
Satellites and Communist China, by Weight,
1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956 . . . . . . . 14
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Following Page
Figure 1. US and USSR: Production of Military
Aircraft, by Number, 1954 Through
the Third Quarter of 1956 . . . . . .
Figure 2. US and USSR: Production of Military
Aircraft, by Weight, 1954 Through
the Third Quarter of 1956 . . . . . .
14
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cIA/RR IM-437 NW&D
(ORR Project 33-1552)
QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF THE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT
IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
JULY-SEPTEMBER 19577-
1. Trends in Production.
In the third quarter of 1956, estimated production of aircraft
by the Sino-Soviet Bloc increased about 5 percent over production
in the previous quarter.** The increase continued to be mainly in
the production of fighter aircraft in the USSR, where production of
new models is still advancing along estimated production accelera-
tion curves.** Production in terms of airframe weight registered
an .even larger increase, somewhat less than 10 percent over produc-
tion of the previous quarter. The larger increase in airframe weight
reflects rising rates.of production of Bear and Camel aircraft and
the replacement of the Fresco (MIG-17) fighter by the heavier Farmer,
by the Flashlight, and by an unidentified new fighter. Somewhat less
than 60 percent of the aircraft produced during the third quarter of
1956 are believed to have been combat types.*Xxx
The Soviet share of estimated total production of aircraft by
the Sino-Soviet Bloc remained essentially unchanged during the third
quarter of 1956.? In both the second and third quarters of 1956 the
Soviet share was between 80 and 85 percent of total production by the
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this memorandum
represent the best judgment of ORR as of 15 October 1956.
** Estimated production of aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc from
1954 through the third quarter of 1956, by number, is given in
Table 1, p..6, below, and, by airframe weight, in Table 2, p. 7, below.
*x- Estimated cumulative production of selected Soviet aircraft
through the third quarter of 1956 is given in Table 3, p. 8, below.
HxXx- For the purposes of this memorandum, combat types include bom-
ber, fighter, and ground attack aircraft. Other aircraft such as
helicopters and transports have uses under both combat and noncombat
conditions.
/ Estimated production of aircraft in the USSR from 1954 through
the third quarter of 1956, by number, is given in Table 4, p. 9,
below, and, by.airframe weight, in Table 5, p. 10, below.
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Bloc. On the basis of airframe weight, almost 95 percent of produc-
tion of all aircraft took place in the USSR, a slight increase over
the second quarter of 1956. This figure continues to emphasize the
fact that the other members of the Bloc produce relatively lighter
aircraft. More than 85 percent of all the combat aircraft produced
by the Bloc during the third quarter of 1956 is believed to have
been produced in the USSR.
Recent intelligence information has resulted.in several changes
in previously published estimates of Soviet production of aircraft.
As noted in the last memorandum of this series,* information which
became available in late June 1956 indicated that a further reduc-
tion in estimated production of the Bison might be necessary. Analy-
sis of this new material led to the conclusion that 35 Bisons had
been produced by the end of June 1956 instead of the 56 previously
reported. This reduction in the estimate of production of the Bison
from previous estimates is strongly supported by the limited number
of sightings of Bisons at the producing plant, which is located in
Moscow. US Air Force estimates carry production'of the Badger at
Plant No. 64 in Voronezh, based upon photographs of these aircraft
as they were being worked upon on the ramp in front of the plant.
This memorandum carries this activity as a modification of the Badger
rather than as production because, among other reasons, production
of the Badger at Plant No. 64, added to the known production at
Plants No. 1 in Kuybyshev and No. 22 in Kazan', would be inconsistently
higher than fairly firm order-of-battle estimates of Soviet; Badger
strength.
As a result of the visit of General Twining to Plant No. 30 in
Moscow, it has been established that the plant is engaged in some
aspect of production of the Crate (I1-14), the conventional Soviet
transport. Whether or not this activity is production of the Crate
or a modification of the Coach (I1-12) to the Crate is not clear.
Analysis of the information on Plant No. 30 supports the tentative
conclusion that the activity is modification of the Coach to the Crate.
One new jet fighter which was carried in the previous estimate
has been dropped from the estimate presented in this memorandum.
Information has been received which indicates that what formerly
* CIA RR IM-V32, Quarterly Estimate of the Production of Aircraft
in the Sino-Soviet Bloc,April-June 1956, 20 July 1956. SECRET CIA
INTERNAL USE ONLY.
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appeared to be a new fighter in production at Plant No. 292 in Saratov
was actually the Flashlight. On the basis of a second sighting at
the plant airfield, this memorandum continues to carry production of
a new fighter at Plant No. 168 in Rostov. Identification of this
fighter is not firm, but limited information suggests that it may be
the Faceplate, new jet fighter shown for the first time at the 1956
Aviation-Day Airshow.
It is estimated that during.the third quarter of 1956 Soviet pro-
duction of military aircraft exceeded that of the US by about 20 per-
cent.* In terms of airframe weight, Soviet and US production of mili-
tary aircraft were roughly the same.
3. Production in the European Satellites and in Communist China.
In the third quarter of 1956 the European Satellites produced an
estimated total of 330 aircraft, or about 14 percent of total pro-
duction of all aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc. It is estimated
that 70 aircraft, all piston-engine trainers, were produced by Com-
munist China during the third quarter of 1956, representing about
3 percent of estimated total production by the Bloc.** Czechoslovakia
and Poland remain. the largest producers among the Satellites, account-
ing for about 72 percent and 24 percent, respectively, or a combined
total of about 96 percent of Satellite production of aircraft by num-
ber.
Aircraft sightings by the US Air Attache to Czechoslovakia during
July and August at the large Prague/Vodochody Fagot (MIG-15) jet
fighter plant in Czechoslovakia indicate a decline in production.
This plant may be phasing out production of the obsolete Fagot in
favor of the more advanced Fresco jet fighter.
Production of military aircraft in the USSR is compared with that
in the US from 19.54 through the third quarter of 1956, by number, in
Figure 1, following p. 14, and, by airframe weight, in Figure 2, follow-
ing p. 14. For additional comparison, US military aircraft acceptances
from 1954 through the third quarter of 1956, by number, are given in
Table 6, p. 11, below, and, by airframe weight, in Table 7, p. 12, below.
** Estimated production of aircraft in the European Satellites and
Communist China from 1954 through the third quarter of 1956, by num-
ber, is given in Table 8, p. 13, below, and, by airframe weight, in
Table 9, p. 14, below.
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Production of the Crate is proceeding slowly in Czechoslovakia
and East Germany., Series production is expected to begin at the
Czechoslovak Avia plant in the last quarter of 1956.
In an air display on 26 August 1956, Poland exhibited four Sm-1
(Soviet Hare, Mi-1) light helicopters. These aircraft are believed
to have been the first units produced at the Lublin/Swidnik aircraft
plant. Series production of this aircraft is anticipated in the
light of European Satellite requirements for a utility helicopter.
An analysis of intelligence on Communist China indicates that a
program of production of aircraft is under way. The construction of
facilities for production of aircraft and the initiation of produc-
tion of aircraft have been priority targets under the Chinese First
Five Year Plan (1953-57). The program of Soviet aid has been geared
to these objectives by providing technical assistance, training for
Chinese personnel, and tooling and materials as required. New facili-
ties for production of aircraft have been constructed and have been
active in the assembly and repair of jet-fighter and conventional-
trainer aircraft.
The Chinese Communist press announced on 29 September 1954 that
the first successful flight of Chinese-made aircraft had taken place
on 26 July 1954. It is believed that this release referred to the
flight testing of a trial production group of conventional Yak-18
trainers. The Yak-18 is probably the most simply constructed air-
frame among Soviet aircraft. It is estimated that the first series-
produced trainer was accepted in July 1955 and that as many as 205
trainers were produced through September 1956.
On 8 September 1956 the Chinese Communist press announced the
successful production of a. jet aircraft. This effort is believed to
be the start of a program of production of jet aircraft. It is esti-
mated that the Chinese Communists will perform final assembly from
Soviet-produced parts on a series of 100 jet fighter aircraft, prob-
ably in the Fresco (MIG-17) class. This final assembly operation con-
stitutes approximately 12 percent of the production effort on this
aircraft and is a necessary step in the initiation of complete Chinese
production. It is estimated that five jet aircraft will have been
assembled through the third quarter of 1956. These aircraft have not
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been included as produced by Communist China in Table 8* and Table 9,**
because the fabrication of the aircraft is included under Soviet pro-
duction.
The USSR will provide the aircraft engines, accessories, elec-
tronic gear, armaments, and the like, which are required for both
fighter and trainer aircraft.
P. 13, below.
* P. 14, below.
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Estimated Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, by Number a/
1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956
1st Quarter 2d Quarter
of of
3d Quarter
of
of Aircraft
T
1954
1955
1956
1956
1956
ype
Jet bomber
Heavy
2'
25
4
4
6
Medium
160
300
88
91
93
Light
1,300
980
180
170
170
Turboprop bomber
Heavy
0
6
15
23
28
Jet fighter
4,300
3,800
780
840
1,000
Ground attack
210
6o
0
0
0
Transport
Trainer
1,700
830
260
310
330
Jet
1,200
1,200
240
230
160
Piston
1,100
1,300
360
370
380
Other b
640
390
110
120
120
Total
11
000
8
900
2,000
2,200
2,300
,
,
a. Rounded to reflect the maximum number of significant digits con-
sistent with estimating procedures.
b. Helicopters, gliders, seaplanes, and utility aircraft.
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Estimated Production of Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, by Weight 1
1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956
Thousand Pounds of Airframe Weight
1st Quarter
of
2d Quarter
of
3d Quarter
of
Type of Aircraft
1954
1955
1956
1956
1956
Heavy
220
2,800
450
450
670
Medium
8,300
15,000
4,500
4,6oo
4,700
Light
23,000
18,000
3,300
3,200
3,200
Turboprop bomber
Heavy
0
540
1,300
2,100
2,500
Jet fighter
30,000
29,000
6,800
7,600
9,100
Ground attack
1,700
500
0
0
0
Transport
9,500
3,600
1,700
2,200
2,400
Trainer
Jet
8,600
10,000
1,600
1,400
1,000
Piston
1,500
1,900
550
560
570
Other _I
6,300
4,200
1,200
1,200
1,200
Total 90,000 85,000 21,000 23,000 25,000
a. These figures include production of spare parts and are rounded to
reflect the maximum number of significant digits consistent with esti-
mating procedures.
b. Helicopters, gliders, seaplanes, and utility aircraft.
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Estimated Cumulative Production of Selected Aircraft in the USSR J
Through the Third Quarter of 1956
Model
Type of Aircraft
Production to 1 October 1956
Badger
Jet medium bomber
740
Beagle
Jet light bomber
6,300 b/
Bear
Turboprop heavy bomber
72
Bison
Jet heavy bomber
41
Camel
Jet transport
26
Farmer
Jet fighter
1,200
Flashlight
Jet all-weather interceptor
890
Fresco
Jet fighter
9,700
Horse
Helicopter
43
Hound
Helicopter
470
New fighter
Jet fighter
48
a. Rounded to reflect the maximum number of significant digits con-
sistent with estimating procedures.
b. This total was given incorrectly in the last memorandum of this
series, CIA./RR IM-432, quarterly Estimate of the Production of Aircraft
in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, April-June 1, 20 July 1956, SECRET CIA
INTERNAL USE ONLY. Instead of ,500 units, the figure should have been
6,200 units.
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Table 4
Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR, by Number a
1951+ Through the Third Quarter of 1956
1st Quarter 2d Quarter 3d Quarter
Type of Aircraft 1951+ 1955 of of of
1956 1956 1956
a. Rounded to reflect the maximum number of significant digits
consistent with estimating procedures.
b. Helicopters, gliders, and seaplanes.
Heavy
Medium
Light
Turboprop Bomber
Heavy
Jet fighter
Transport
2
160
1,300
0
3,800
25
300
980
6
3,200
1+
88
180
15
670
1+
91
170
23
730
6
93
170
28
814.o
Jet
0
5
6
6
9
Piston
1,700
81o
21+0
280
300
Jet
1,100
920
14o
120
130
Piston
830
830
210
210
210
Other b
61+0
390
110
110
110
Total
9,500
7,500
1,700
1,8oo
1,900
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Estimated Production of Aircraft in the USSR, by Weight a/
1954 Through the Third quarter of 1956
Thousand Pounds of Airframe Weight
1st quarter
of
2d Quarter
of
3d Quarter
of
f Aircraft
1954
1955
1956
1956
1956
Type o
-
Jet bomber
Heavy
220
2,800
450
450
670
Medium
8,300
15,000
4,500
4,600
4,700
Light
23,000
18,000
3,300
3,200
3,200
Turboprop bomber
Heavy
0
540
1,300
2,100
2,500
Jet fighter
27,000
26,000
6,100
7,000
8,100
Transport
Jet
0
310
370
370
560
Piston
9,500
3,300
1,200
1,6oo
1,700
Trainer
Jet
8,100
8,100
930
790
830
Piston
920
920
250
250
250
Other b/
6,300
4,200
1,200
1,200
1,200
Total
000
84
79,000
20,000
21,000
24,000
,
a. These figures include production of spare parts and are rounded
to reflect the maximum number of significant digits consistent with
estimating procedures.
b. Helicopters, gliders, and seaplanes.
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Table 6
US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Number a/
1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956
1st Quarter
of
2d Quarter
of
3d Quarter
of
Type of Aircraft
1954
1955
1956
1956
1956
Heavy
28
34
6
12
32
Medium
767
530
128
132
145
Light
106
155
29
16
20
Ground attack
86o
631
135
107
121
Fighter
3,518
4,017
600
607
64o
Transport
634
536
99
121
81
Trainer
1,602
1,439
286
206
190
Other /
1,235
701
218
233
278
Total
8,750
8,043
1,501
1,434
1,507
a. The source for these figures is office of the Assistant Secre-
tary of Defense (Supply and Logistics), Statistics Branch, US
Military Aircraft Acceptances, 1953-56, Number and Airframe Weight,
September 1957). CONFIDENTIAL.
b. Includes preliminary data for September 1956.
c. Helicopters, flying boats, amphibians, and lighter-than-air.
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Table 7
US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by Weight a/
1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956
Thousand Pounds of Airframe Weight
1st Quarter 2d Quarter 3d Quarter
of of of
Type of Aircraft 1954 1955 1956 1956 1956 b/
Bomber
Heavy
3,304
3,853
678
1,355
3,601
Medium
37,296
26,377
5,901
5,863
6,463
Light
1,834
2,724
547
296
375
Ground attack
7,793
6,034
1,369
1,189
1,298
Fighter
35,390
43,161
7,068
7,145
7,261
Transport
30,614
20,697
3,611
4,549
2,937
Trainer
9,633
7,453
1,064
74o
763
Other c/
4,831
4,397
1,16o
1,441
1,200
Total
130,695
114,696
21,398
22,578
23,898
a. The source for these figures is Office of the Assistant Secretary
of Defense (Supply and Logistics), Statistics Branch, US Military Air-
craft Acceptances, 1953-56, Number and Airframe Weight, September 1956.
CONFIDENTIAL.
b. Includes preliminary data for September 1956.
c. Helicopters, flying boats, amphibians, and lighter-than-air.
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Estimated Production of Aircraft in the European Satellites and Communist China, by Number
1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956
a. Rounded to reflect the maximum number of significant digits consistent with estimating
procedures.
b. See discussion of Chinese Communist aircraft production under 3, p. 3, above.
1st Quarter
of
2d Quarter
of
3d Quarter
of
Type of Aircraft
1954
1955
1956
1956
Jet fighter
390
240
33
33
90
Ground attack
210
60
0
0
0
Jet trainer
90
310
105
105
30
Piston trainer
190
360
90
90
90
Transport
0
18
12
19
20
Other
0
0
1
3
6
880
990
240
250
240
Jet fighter
150
310
79
79
79
Piston trainer
60
0
0
0
0
Light helicopter
0
0
0
2
2
210
310
79
81
81
Bulgaria
Piston trainer
0
0
0.
0
0
Rumania
Piston trainer
24
24
6
6
6
Hungary
Piston trainer
24
24
6
6
6
East Germany
Transport
0
0
0
1
1
Communist China b
Piston trainer
0
23
51
61
70
1,140
1,380
380
410
400
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of Aircraft in the European Satellites and Communist China, by Weight a]
1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956
1st Quarter
of
2d Quarter
of
3d Quarter
of
Type of Aircraft
1954
1955
1956
1956
1956
Jet fighter
2,300
1,400
200
200
530
Ground attack
1,700
500
0
0
0
Jet trainer
550
1,900
650
650
180
Piston trainer
450
960
240
240
240
Transport
0
28
36
47
66
Other
0
0
1
4
8
5,100
4,800
1,100
1,100
1,000
Jet fighter
860
1,800
470
470
470
Piston trainer
61
0
0
0
Light helicopter
0
0
0
6
6
920
1,800
470
470
470
Bulgaria
Piston trainer
0
0
0
0
0
Rumania
Piston trainer
22
22
6
6
6
Hungary
Piston trainer
17
17
6
6
6
East Germany
Transport
0
0
0
19
19
Communist China
0
23
52
62
71
6,o00
6,700
1,600
1,700
1,600
a. These figures include production of spare parts and are rounded to reflect the maximum
number of significant digits consistent with estimating procedures.
b. See discussion of Chinese Communist aircraft production under 3, p. 3, above.
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5,279
US aand USSR b
PRODUCTION OF MILITARY AIRCRAFT; BY NUMBER
1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956
US USSR
First Quarter
1956
a US totals include preliminary
data for Sept. 1956.
b USSR totals are rounded.
1954
1955
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Bombers and fighters.
US Bombers
US Fighters and ground attack
USSR Bombers
USSR Fighters and ground attack
US USSR
Second Quarter
1956
Figure 1.
US USSR
Third Quarter
1956
9,39T00935A000400140001-5
 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140001-5
USaand USSRb
PRODUCTION OF MILITARY AIRCRAFT; BY WEIGHTd
1954 Through the Third Quarter of 1956
(Million pounds of airframe weight)
a L IS totals include preliminary
data for Sept. /956.
USSR totals are rounded.
c Bombers and fighters.
dUS figures do not include
spare parts production.
US Bombers
US Fighters and ground attack
USSR Bombers
USSR Fighters and ground attack
1955
US USSR
First Quarter
1956
ow no 04 0% low
US USSR US USSR
Second Quarter Third Quarter
1956 1956
Approved For Release 193 k2*4LC1A-RJ3P79T00935A000400140001-5
 Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140001-5
Cl T' r Y] L+ m
CIA INTERNAL USE ONLY
Approved For Release 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79T00935A000400140001-5