AN EVALUATION OF THE NEW SOVIET STATISTICAL HANDBOOK 'THE NATIONAL ECONOMY OF THE USSR'

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• Release Decision: RIPPUB
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• Document Page Count: 33
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 27, 1998
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: October 8, 1956
• Content Type: IM

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INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
60
AN EVALUATION OF THE NEW SOVIET STATISTICAL HANDBOOK
"THE NATIONAL ECONOMY OF THE USSR"
CIA/RR IM-435
8 October 1956
WARNING
THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE
NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE
MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, USC, SECS.
793 AND 794, THE TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF
WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS
PROHIBITED BY LAW.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
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CONTENTS
Page
Summary and Conclusions
I. Introduction 2
II. Significant Information 5
A. Population and Labor Force 6
B. Fixed Capital and Capital Investment 10
1. Fixed Capital
2. Capital Investment
10
11
C. Productivity and Wages 15
D. Industrial Production 15
1. Value of Gross Industrial Production, 1954 16
2. Soviet Failure in Production of Cotton
Pickers 17
3. Larger Inventory of Metalforming Machinery
Than Previously Estimated 17
E. Agriculture 18
F. Transport and Communications 18
G. Foreign Trade 19
H. Index of Per Capita Consumption 20
I. Price and Cost Movements, 1950-55 20
J. Education and Training 21
K. Regional Data 21
L. Military Production Index 23
III. Significance of Omissions of Data 23
Appendixes
Appendix A. Statistical Tables 25
Appendix B. Source References 29
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Tables
Page
1. Number of Pages Devoted to Major Topics in National
Economy, 1956, and in Socialist Construction,
1936 and 1939 4
2. Number of Workers and Employees in the USSR,
1950 and 1955 7
3. Average Increase Per Year in the Fixed Assets of the
USSR, 1928-40 and 1950-55 11
4. Decentralized Capital Investment in the USSR,
by Plan Period 13
5. Construction-Assembly Work as a Percentage of Total
Capital Investment in the USSR, Derived from Two
Bases, 1928-34 14
6. Commodity Composition of Foreign Trade in the USSR,
1938, 1950, 1954, and 1955 19
7. Indexes of Price and Cost Movements in the USSR,
1950-55 22
8. Effect of Revised Value-Added Weights on the Index
of Industrial Production in the USSR, 1911.8_61 . . . 25
9. Effect of Data Revisions on. the Index of Agricultural
Machinery in the USSR, 1948-61 27
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CIA/RR IM-435 S-E-C-R-E-T
(ORR Project 14.1612)
AN EVALUATION OF THE NEW SOVIET STATISTICAL HANDBOOK
?THE NATIONAL ECONOMY OF THE USSR"
Summary and Conclusions
The publication of the new Soviet statistical handbook, The
National Economy of the USSR (Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR), 177?has
two primary consequences for the intelligence community. First, it
releases some new information which is of great value in the analysis
Of the Soviet economy even though much of the data in the handbook
had been previously announced. Second, it indicates a relaxation
of control over the release of economic information, a change which
can have a significant effect on the intelligence effort of the US.
This memorandum assesses some of the new information and indi-
cates its significance, either in terms of the revision of previous
CIA estimates or in terms of the expansion of our information horizon.
The most significant revisions are in the population estimates** and
in the estimates of the postwar increase in living standards per
capita. Of significance to long-term economic projections is the
possibility, emerging from studies in progress, that additions to the
Soviet labor force, despite normal population growth, will not return
to the level of the Fifth Five Year Plan (1951-55) from future de-
pressed levels until some time during the Ninth Five Year Plan (1971-75).
During this period, annual additions to the US labor force will ap-
proach the size of annual additions to the Soviet labor force.
National Economy, the new handbook, is (1) a compilation of basic
economic information relevant to the Soviet economy and (2) a listing
of the achievements of the economy during the years of Communist power,
with special emphasis upon selected target years -- pre-Revolutionary
* For serially numbered source references, see Appendix B. The
original Soviet text was used in the preparation of this memorandum,
but page references in Appendix B are to both :the original text and
the English translation. For the purpose of uniformity, however,
Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR will hereafter be referred to as National
Economy.
** The new Soviet figure for the population of the USSR is 200 mil-
lion, whereas the former US estimate was 215 million in 1955.
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1913; the first year, 1928, of the Five Year Plans; 1940; 1950; and
1955. The new handbook has thus become a basic source of information
which of necessity will be referenced in most future research efforts
on the Soviet economy.
Additional significance lies in the information not given. Al-
though application of the discretionary powers of the Council of
Ministers over the release of information has been relaxed, there
is no evidence of modification of the extensive prohibitions of
the State Secrets Act of 1947. The many subjects which are omitted
or slighted and which are essential to an evaluation of the Soviet
economy include foreign trade, defense, reserves, finance, currency
circulation, wages, budgets, profits, investment by industry, and
the value of production by each industry. It is possible, however,
that the forthcoming supplementary handbooks on separate economic
sectors and industries and on individual geographic jurisdictions
will add data on these topics.
In recent months there has been official publication of an in-
creasing amount of data not previously to be found in official
periodicals and books. The fact that these data are unclassified
does not lessen their value. As usual) many of the data are pub-
lished in an attempt to sell various economic doctrines; some series
retain obviousstatistical distortions, as the national income data
series; but most of the data appear to be consistent and reliable
in the face of all checks that can be developed. Side by side with
this expanding body of open data lies a clearly delineated, blackout
area which will continue to assume peculiar importance to intelli-
gence research.
I. Introduction.
"As pointed out at the 20th Party Congress, the dearth of publi-
cations of statistical data is one reason for the lag in the creative
work of Soviet economists." 2/ The USSR carried centralized state
control over the release of economic information to an extreme in
peacetime with the promulgation of the State Secrets Act of 8 June
1947. In effect, the Council of Ministers was granted complete dis-
cretionary authority over the release of any information concerning
the Soviet economy.
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From 1947 to 1953 the USSR operated under a statistical black-
out as far as the rest of the world was concerned. It is axiomatic
that secrecy applied on too broad a scale hamstrings even necessary
flows of information, and, by 1955, significant statements by Soviet
leaders indicated that this point had long since been reached. For
example, in July 1955, Marshal Bulganin called for less restriction
on the exchange of information within the USSR on developments in
research and technology which were not closely related to state se-
curity. After the 20th Party Congress, which called for competition
between the economic systems of the East and West, it became more
apparent that the USSR would have to permit more publication of in-
formation on its own economy, although it was understood that the
achievements would be emphasized.
In early June 1956, National Economy, the new statistical hand-
book, was published. It serves two purposes -- convenience and
propaganda -- the latter in the sense of the propagation of doctrine.
National Economy has, in general, a slightly better coverage than
Socialist Construction of the USSR* (Sotsialisticheskoye stroitelistvo
SSSR), the 1939 handbook, which was published during a statistical
dimout preceding World War II, but it has a much less adequate cover-
age than the 1936 handbook, also entitled Socialist Construction.
For a more detailed analysis of the topical coverage in National
Economy compared with its predecessors of 1936 and 1939, on the basis
of the number of pages devoted to each major topic, see Table 1.**
Important new information is presented in National Economy on the
following major subjects: (1) the population of the USSR; (2) the
composition of the Soviet labor force and its distribution among
occupations; (3) the production of various tools, machinery, and
equipment, which will permit revision of the gross production index
used in CIA .3j; (4) retail trade, which, in combination with the
revised population estimate and other new information, has been uti-
lized in a revision of the CIA index of per capita consumption;
(5) several new cost indexes for the postwar period covering retail
prices, construction-assembly costs, and prices on the kolkhoz mar-
ket; (6) capital investment in terms of constant costs for the
period 1928-55; (7) the' inventory of metalforming equipment, which
will require sharp upward revision of the previous estimate; (8) the
* Hereafter referred to as Socialist Construction.
** Table 1 follows on p. 4.
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Table 1
Number of Pages Devoted to Major Topics in National Economy, 1956,
and in Socialist Construction, 1936 and 1939
Summary
"National Economy"
"Socialist Construction"
1956 ei
1939 LL/
1936 V
21
24
33
Industry
53
52
196
Agriculture
58
21
61
Capital construction
13
3
6 2/
Transport and communications
12
5
44
Labor force
12
1
41
Domestic trade
16
1
12
Foreign trade
1
iii
21
Culture
201.
25
Health
16
30
5
Municipal services
4/
9
Finance
0
2
37
Miscellaneous
40
66
48
Total
262
205
538
a. Russian edition.
b. English edition.
c. Additional coverage in industry and agriculture chapters.
d. Some relevant information is ecattered throughout the text of these
handbooks.
pattern of foreign trade, making explicit the increased share of
machinery and equipment in exports; and (9) the aggregate cost
structure of industrial production and of construction activities.
National Economy is oriented somewhat along propaganda lines. It
emphasizes those subjects of which the Soviet leaders are most
proud, such as over-all indexes of economic growth; statistics show-
ing improvement in the supply of consumer goods after 1953; and
statistics dealing with agriculture, especially those which show the
impact of the "new lands" policy.
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The data in Table I indicate relatively good coverage in National
Economy on the subjects of agriculture and those sectors of the econ-
omy most affecting the consumer. On the other hand, coverage in other
subjects appears constrained by the basic provisions of the State
Secrets Act of 1947.
The State Secrets Act of 191.1.7 prohibited publication of data in
the specified fields of (1) state and material reserves; (2) war
industries; (3) specified financial information (currency funds,
current account balances, operative financial plans of the USSR,
and storage and movement of state monetary assets); (4) geological
reserves and production of nonferrous metals and rare earths; and
(5) import and export information pertaining to "certain" (unspecified)
goods. In addition, the Council of Ministers was granted discretionary
power to prohibit release of information through two further clauses --
one which prohibited release of any information concerning industries
working on military orders and a second which prohibited information
"recognized by the Council of Ministers of the USSR as information con-
stituting State Secrets concerning industry as a whole and individual
branches of it, agriculture, trade, and transport." National Economy
publishes no information on those subjects specifically covered by
the State Secrets Act; on the other hand, much of the information
which is published implies a relaxation of the discretionary control
powers of the Council of Ministers.
While considering the implications of the new handbook in terms
of the release of economic information, it should be pointed out that
there is some possibility that supplementary information will be
published in a series of additional handbooks dealing with individual
branches of the economy and with individual geographic regions of the
USSR (republics and even oblasts).
II. Significant Information.
In general, National Economy does not drastically alter the pic-
ture of the Soviet economy as it has been seen in recent months.
Actually, a great deal of significant information had been released
during the 20th Party Congress in February 1956, and by June much of
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this information had been analyzed. The general impact of the new
handbook, especially in the field of production estimates, is not to
compel significant revision of the production series for major items
but rather to provide new production series for items not covered in
official statistics previously released.
The major subjects upon which the new handbook contributes new
or supplementary information are discussed below.
A. Population and Labor Force.
The information in the new handbook with the greatest impact
on intelligence estimates lies in the topics of population and labor
force. The handbook lists the population of the USSR as 200.2 million,
approximPtely 15 million to 19 million less than previous Western
estimates. The labor force estimPtes are currently being reexamined
in the light of the revised population estimate, but drastic revision
is unlikely, because these estimates were largely based on previous of-
ficial announcements. Data on persons of voting age in the USSR had
been announced previously, and the labor force estimates had been re-
conciled with these figures. Information on state employment (number
of workers and employees) had also been previously given and esti-
mates for the numerical distribution of state employment in 1955
among industry, other nonagricultural employment, and state agri-
cultural employment were very close to the released data. The main
impact of the reduction in the population estimates must be borne
by the nonworking population, especially in the younger age groups.
Nevertheless, the new information has changed the concept of
employment trends during the last 5 years and has raised questions
which must be considered in the casting of employment projections
for the next 5 years and the longer 15-year projections. It has be-
come clear that it makes a great deal of difference to labor projec-
tions whether year-end or annual-average figures are used. To illus-
trate this point, Table 2* shows the number of workers and employees
in the USSR in 1950 and 1955.
The CIA estimates prepared before publication of National
Economy were estimates of the size of the labor force as of the begin-
ning of each year. On the whole, they are not substantially different
* Table 2 follows on p. 7.
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Table 2
_n
C)
-1
P3
CD
Er
Number of Workers and Employees in the USSR 01
CD
1950 and 1955
Million WorkersCD
CD
CD
Workers and Pmployees
1950
1955
Increase
1950-55
ii3
CD
1;3
"
?
c)
5;
P3
Annual Average 2/
1 January 1951 12/
Annual Average 2/
1 January 1956 12/
1 January 1951
Annual Average to 1 January 1956
Industry
14.1
14.1
17.4
17.4
3.3
3.3
C3
State agricultural
3.1
2.7
5.9
5.6
2.8
2.9
13
Other nonagricultural
21.7
23.0
25.1
24.9
3.4
1.9
.4
CD
Total
38.9
39.8
48.4
47.9
9.5
8.1
-4
a
a
CD
GI
a.
b. Estimate.
01
>
a
a
a
4=.
a
a
_%
K.1
a
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from estimates prepared later on the basis of the data in the new
handbook. The major difference has been caused by a revision of the
Soviet data. The total number of workers and employees on 1 January
1951 had been announced as 39.2:million in Soviet publications pub-
lished before National Economy gave the total as 39.8 million.
It is noteworthy that employment figures during the Fifth
Five Year Plan (1951-55) show a more marked increase if annual
average employment data are used rather than year-end figures.
(See Table 2.) If annual averages are used, the total increase in
workers and employees is 9.5 million compared with 8.1 million if
year-end figures are used. During the same 5 years (1951-55),
annual average employment classified as "nonagricultural other than
industry" increased 3.4 million but only an estimated 1.9 million
on the basis of year-end data.
In forecasting the 1960 distribution of workers and employees,
the key figure is the 1960 target for the total -- 55 million.
National Economy has identified: this figure as an annual average em-
ployment figure, not a year-end figure as previously had been supposed.
A strong case can be made that the changes in the annual-average
employment are the changes relevant for future projections and that
these changes apparently are used by the Soviet planners.
A subject which deserves future study is that of the markedly
different movements Which emerge from annual-average contrasted with
year-end data. It can be hypothesized that seasonal employment fac-
tors are at the root of the problem. Such seasonal factors obviously
affect employment in state agriculture. To a marked extent, seasonal
factors will affect employment in the service industries in a country
with severe winters -- in construction, water transport, and motor
transport, for example.
Before publication of National Economy, it had seemed that
anticipated increases in other nonagricultural employment during the
Sixth Five Year Plan (1956-60) were large in respect to previous
experience. Now it no longer seems that this is the case, and there
is little possibility of absorbing above-plan employment requirements
for industry at the expense of increases planned for other nonagri-
cultural employment. As it is likely that industry will have to add
more workers than planned in the Sixth Five Year Plan and more than
it can obtain from other sectors of the economy (such as agriculture
and the service industries) without crippling their performance, the
recent demobilizations acquire great economic significance.
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The new data published in National Economy tend to underscore
the damping effect on labor force additions during 1956-60 caused by
the reduced birth rate and loss of children during the war years and
suggest that additions to the labor force will not return to the rate
of the early 1950's until the Ninth Five Year Plan (1971-75).
On the basis of the new data in National Economy, research
is now in progress on reconstructing the composition of the Soviet
population according to age groups and sex. It appears not only
that war losses will be reflected in reduced acquisitions to the
labor force during the Sixth Five Year Plan but also that the post-
war decline in birth rate will hold future acquisitions to the
labor force below the level of the Fifth Five Year Plan until the
Ninth Five Year Plan.* These findings are preliminary and subject
to revision. The Soviet figures, especially the announced 1956
figure of 200 million as the total population, must be checked care-
fully, especially as to the degree of inclusiveness.
Several other significant revisions of estimates stem from
the new data. War losses appear to have been higher than previously
estimated -- estimated now (tentatively) at 26 million. Estimates
of the number of forced laborers have been reduced. The estimate
of the postwar rural birth rate is being significantly reduced. It
also now appears that there are fewer younger people and more older
people in the USSR than estimated before. Full quantification and
acceptance of these revisions await detailed studies of the age and
sex distribution of the Soviet population. A hypothesis which must
be carefully examined is the possibility of a revised definition of
Soviet population for the announced 1956 figures, perhaps one exclud-
ing the armed forces or members of forced labor camps.
As a byproduct of the revision of the population estimate,
some other intelligence estimates must be changed, especially those
computed on a per capita basis. Thus the index of per capita con-
sumption has been changed, showing that the Soviet consumer is better
off than had been believed previously and that the cost of forced
industrialization since the war, although great, has been overestimated.
* This estimate is based on the following assumptions: (1) there
will be no infusions of labor force from outside sources, such as
demobilization; and (2) there will be no increase in age-group
participation rate (ratio of those employed to those employable).
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Asa result of data changes brought about by National Economy, total
per capita consumption, previously believed to be 20 percent above
that of 1928, now is estimated to be about 4o percent above. Per
capita food consumption, previously estimated to have declined 15
percent since 1928, now is estimated to have declined only 4 percent.
B. Fixed Capital and Capital Investment.
The study of the growth of the Soviet economy is closely
linked with analysis of the productive assets, such as fixed capital
(plant and equipment), and with analysis of annual capital invest-
ment (which comprises basically additions to plant and equipment).
1. Fixed Capital:
National Economy gives some important new capital stock
data which, although changing no basic estimates, support some cur-
rent estimates and will be important to further research. A table
in the text 2/ which gives the share distribution of total industrial
fixed assets among the component industries (in percentage terms)
may be very useful in future research concerned with capital-output
ratios. The same table indicates an increase in the proportionate
share of total industrial assets for the coal, petroleum, electric
power, and construction materials industries and a decline in the
share for the chemicals, metalfabricating, machine construction, and
light and food industries during the Fifth Five Year Plan (1951-55).
These shifts in shares agree with an increasingly significant fact
in contemporary Soviet investment policy -- the need for extensive
investment in the power and materials industries.
To a large extent, growth trends in capital assets are
the reflection of investment policy. Soviet investment policies
have undergone significant changes in the postwar period. Table 3,*
which has been derived from data presented in the new handbook, .?2/
shows growth trends of the fixed assets of the USSR, as an average in-
crease per year, in 1928-40 and 1950-55. Significantly different pat-
terns of growth apply on the CMR hand to the period 1928-40 and on the
other hand to 1951-55, especially for agriculture and for transport
and communications. Although fixed assets in agriculture increased
at an annual rate of 7.4 percent during 1928-40, the rate increased
* Table 3 follows on p. 11.
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to 13.2 percent per year during 1950-55. In transport and communica-
tions the average annual rate of growth in fixed assets dropped from
11.5 percent during 1928-40 to 5.9 percent during 1950-55.
Table 3
' Average Increase Per Year in the Fixed Assets
of the USSR
1928-40 and 1950-55
Percent
Fixed Assets
1928-40
1950-55
Total fixed assets
10.0
8.7
Productive fixed assets
13.2
10.4
Industry and construction
19.2
11.5
Agriculture
7.4
13.2
Transport and communications
11.5
5.9
Nonproductive fixed assets
8.3
6.2
2. guital Investment.
National Economy gives a unique time series for total
capital investment, year by year from 1929 through 1955, in constant
"1955 prices." I/ Derivation of such a series has been the goal of
much research by Western analysts in recent years because aggregate
investment is a major sector of GNP studies and it is a major con-
tributor to economic growth. Another valuable table in the text gi
gives the percentage of capital investment allocated for machinery
and equipment during 1946-55. These data make it possible to derive
the value of producer goods used in investment during these years.
The investment series given in National Economy is par-
ticularly valuable because it is inclusive of decentralized invest-
ment,* a category of investment that has been especially difficult
* Decentralized capital investment is investment which does not cone
under the rigid controls of the capital investment plan.
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to quantify. Table 4* shows the extent of decentralized capital in-
vestment in the USSR by plan period. As indicated in Table 4, de-
centralized investment has borne a surprisingly stable relationship
to total investment, and a rule-of-thumb 5-percent adjustment to
total investment within the plan would be justified.
The price basis for the capital investment time series
is specified as being in "prices of 1 July 1955." It is not likely,
however, that all capital investment for the last 27 years was re-
valued in 1955 prices. It is more likely that the total annual
costs of capital investment or its components -- construction-assembly
work and equipment -- were converted to a 1955-price-level base from
the original prices by use of a cost index of some sort.
It seems most likely that two separate index series were
used in making this conversion -- an index for construction-assembly
costs and an index for equipment costs. Because the value of con-
struction-assembly work for each year is published separately, as
is the 1949-55 portion of a specific cost index for construction-
assembly work, it is reasonable to deduce that there also exist both
a time series for the equipment component of capital investment and
a cost index pertaining to it.
Partial confirmation of this theory is given by the data
on the relative shares of construction-assembly work of corresponding
years according to two bases -- 1955 prices and prices of the current
year. Table 5** shows the share of construction-assembly work relative
to total capital investment, derived from two bases.
There is a wide discrepancy in the shares attributed to
construction-assembly work. This discrepancy probably is due to a
greater rise in construction-assembly costs during the last 20 to 30
years than in equipment costs.***
on p. 13.
*
Table 4
follows
**
Table 5
follows
on p. 14.
***
The time
series
for investment, construction-assembly, and. equip-
ment were probably derived in the following way. Deflator time series
for construction-assembly and for equipment were derived on a 1955
price base. These deflators were applied to the corresponding data in
current costs in order to derive the time series in terms of constant
1955 costs.
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Table 4
Decentralized Capital Investment in the USSR, by Plan Period
Decentralized Capital Investment al
Plan Period
Capital Investment
Within the Plan /
(Billion Rubles) 12/
Billion Rubles 12/
Percent of
Investment Within
the Plan
First Five Year Plan
(1928-32)
58.2
3.4
5.8
Second Five Year Plan
(1933-37)
132.5
8.9
6.7
Third Five Year Plan
(1938-41 -- 3-1/2 years)
131.3
7.4
5.6
July 1941-January 1946
131.6
3.2
2.4
Fourth Five Year Plan
(1946-50)
311.1
15.4
5.0
Fifth Five Year Plan
(1951-55)
593.7
31.6
5.3
a. Exclusive of collective farm investment and of capital repairs.
b. July 1955 prices.
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Table 5
Construction-Assembly Work as a Percentage of Total Capital Investment
in the USSR, Derived from Two Bases
1928-34
Year
1955 Price Level 21
Prices of Current Year 12../
1928
77
64.6
1929
85
62.2
1930
86
61.2
1931
88
64.7
1932
81
67.3
1933
77
64.1
1934
80
67.6
a. 2/
The existence of a time series for capital investment in
constant prices makes it possible to improve the cost index deflator
now in use.* Preliminary tests indicate that the revisions will be
within the margins of error previously established. A deflator index
can function, among other uses, as a means for deflating annual invest-
ment in current prices as a part of the process of computing additions
to capital stock on a constant-price basis and as a means for changing
the price basis of investment data, such as reconciling investment
data with GNP data on a different price basis.
Much valuable information on housing construction in the
USSR is given in the new handbook. 11/ A table in the text E/ gives
the total volume of housing space by major cities of the USSR for the
years 1926, 1940, and 1956. When these data are related to the popu-
lation estimates for the same years, 12/ some significant conclusions
about housing space per capita emerge. In 1956, Moscow, Minsk, Kuybyshev,
Chelyabinsk, Kazan, Omsk, and Alma-Ata were among the cities having less
housing space per capita than in 1926.
* Previous cost indexes had been derived by approximate methods, but
now official data exist for investment in current prices and investment
in constant prices LL equals cost index (year K as 100), where Ix
Ik
equals the investment for the given year in current rubles and Ik equals
the investment for the same year in the price level of a given year K.
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C. Productivity and Wages.
No direct information is given in the new handbook on wages
per worker or on the total wage bill. Some potentially useful infor-
mation is given in the form of the breakdown of expenditures for con-
struction-assembly work111/ and the cost structure for industrial
production, 12/ both of which separate the wage component.
Little new information is given on labor productivity, with
the notable exception of a table on agricultural labor productivity,
showing annual increases in productivity during 1950-55. According
to the Sixth Five Year Plan (1956-60), labor productivity in the
collective farms is to increase 100 percent-in 1960 compared with
1955, whereas it increased only 38 percent in 1955 compared with
1950. Labor productivity of the sovkhozes is to increase 70 per-
cent by 1960, whereas it increased only 24 percent in 1955 compared
with 1950.
D. Industrial Production.
The new data do not cause more than minor revision of the
estimated production time series for the more basic industrial com-
modities. In many cases, speeches in conjunction with the 20th
Party Congress during February-March 1956 had given absolute pro-
duction figures for 1955 and absolute targets for 1960. These
figures had been expanded into year-by-year series by means of
application of the announced annual percentage increases in pro-
duction for 1950 through 1955 and by application of estimated
percentage increases for 1956 through 1960. Thus, although National
Economy in many cases gives the first published consecutive series
of absolute figures for the postwar years, the estimates based on
20th Party Congress data are accurate by 1 to 5 percent. In most
cases the discrepancy is due to rounding of the announced percentage
increases. In some few cases, more significant discrepancies in
data appear to exist,* but these generally can be explained in terms
of slightly different definitions or coverage. In some important
cases, National Economy gives data for commodities not previously
reported -- mostly machinery and equipment items.
* For example, the data given in National Economy on metalcutting
machine tools. 1...y
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The new data affect the index of gross industrial production
computed by CIA in three respects, 1// but the over-all revision
needed at this time is negligible. The effects of the data are as
follows: (1) revisions in the index arising from revised component
production series are negligible*; (2) although some new information
exists on products not previously included in the index, nonavail-
ability of price information on these products precludes broadening
the coverage of the index at this time; and (3) the new information
on employment by branch of industry permits revision of the value-
added weights,** but the impact of this revision on the index is
negligible. The major effect of the new information is to increase
confidence in the reliability of the CIA gross industrial production
index.
1. Value of Gross Industrial Production, 1954.
National Economy has made possible derivation of the
total value of gross industrial production for 1954 in terms of
1952 prices. In the past it has been possible to express indus-
trial production in terms of the 1926/27 (fiscal year) prices by
linking announced annual percentage increases in production to a
known base figure, expressed in terns of 1926/27 prices. After
1952 the USSR utilized 1952 prices as its price constant for such
series, but no published figure was available for the total value
of Soviet gross industrial output in terms of 1952 prices.
The new handbook makes possible derivation of such a
figure by supplying the vital information that in 1954 the gross
industrial output of cooperative industry was 8.2 percent of total
industrial output. ly It had previously been announced that in
1954 the gross industrial output of cooperative industry was 55
billion rubles (such a figure would be expressed in terms of 1952
prices, the established constant price base for valuation of in-
dustrial output during the Fifth Five Year Plan). 12/ Joining these
two facts together, the estimate of the total value of gross indus-
trial production of the USSR, in 1952 rubles, becomes 670 billion
rublesrxxx
See Table 9, p. 27, below.
See Table 8, p. 25, below.
xxx Because of possible rounding errors, the estimate ranges from
668 billion to 672 billion rubles.
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This information is now being tested as to its reliability
in relation to other information shedding light on the total value of
industrial production. If the data are reliable, a great deal of
additional data will become available. For example, the value of
total production of consumer goods, of producer goods, and of machinery
and fabricated products has been expressed as a percent of total
industrial production. Thus there would be opportunity to value such
data in terms of 1952 rubles.*
2. Soviet Failure in Production of Cotton Pickers.
An interesting table in the new handbook 22/ reveals a
significant Soviet failure -- production of cotton pickers has
dropped to 555 units in 1955 compared with 4,741 -reported in 1950 and
10,000 estimated in 1951. The cotton picker is the most complex of
all agricultural machinery and appears to represent a major engineer-
ing headache, and failure, to the USSR. Significantly, in 1955 and
in early 1956 the USSR attempted to obtain prototype models from
the US.
3. Larger Inventory of Metalforming Machinery Than Previously
Estimated.
Despite Soviet emphasis upon the production of machine
tools, production of a sister category of machinery -- metalforming
machinery (such as forging machines and presses) -- has lagged far be-
hind production of metalforming machinery in the US. The new hand-
book 21/ gives a new absolute figure for the park of metalforming
equipment machinery, by number of units, as of 1 January 1956, a
figure much larger than previously estimated. From this figure, it
seems that imports of such equipment from the European Satellites
had been in larger quantity than previously estimated or, as is more
likely, that removals from the European Satellites, especially East
Germany, had been more extensive than estimated. The effect of the
new higher figure for the park of metalforming machinery is to in-
crease the estimated Soviet potential either for increased production
of consumer goods or for military end items.
* There is a further use of value to GNP studies. An absolute value
figure for gross industrial output will facilitate construction of a
value-added weight for industry in the preparation of the gross
national product index.
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E. Agriculture.
The data pertaining to agriculture in National Economy are
mostly environmental in nature, dealing with the institutions of
agriculture to a much greater extent than with the output. The
new data which are provided are supplementary, filling out gaps in
Western knowledge of Soviet agriculture but not necessitating
major revisions of basic estimates as to strengths and weaknesses
in that sector of the Soviet economy.
In general, the 1955 data reflect the impact of the "new
lands" program and the other major changes in agricultural policy
introduced after 1953. In 1955, compared with 1950, the total area
of land sown increased 27 percent, land under grain cultivation in-
creased 23 percent, and land in fodder increased 72 percent. These
changes were especially pronounced in Kazakhstan, where the amount
of land sown increased 2.6 tines.
During the same period, which was characterized by consolida-
tion but not expansion of collective farm holdings, a significant
expansion did occur in the state farms, especially in the "new lands"
area. Total land area sown by the state farms increased 84 percent.
In Kazakhstan the number of state farms increased from 265 in 1950
to 632 in 1955.
Supplementary data have been supplied concerning the private
plots of collective farmers and of state employees. The private
plots of the collective farmers in 1955 comprised 3.1 percent of
the sown land, 32 percent of which was devoted to vegetable-potato
culture. Private cattle holdings of the collective farmers included
34 percent of the large horned cattle in the USSR, 42 percent of
the cows, 29 percent of the pigs, 19 percent of the sheep, and 55
percent of the goats. In addition, the private plots of state em-
ployees comprised 1 percent of the sown land, 12 percent of which
was in vegetable-potato culture. The cattle holdings of state em-
ployees included 11 percent of the large horned cattle in the USSR,
15 percent of the cows, 13 percent of the pigs, 3 percent of the
sheep, and 28 percent of the goats.
F. Transport and Communications.
The new handbook does not list any major new categories of in-
formation on transport, although several additional years have been
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added to time series previously given. Information on civil aviation
is obscure. No absolute figures on aviation are given, and aviation's
share in the total freight turnover is not presented.
Important new information is given in the handbook for Soviet
civil communications, pieces of mail carried, telegrams sent, money
orders sent, and number of telephone conversations. In addition,
data are given on the total number of radio receivers and of tele-
vision sets for recent years, including 1954 and 1955.
G. Foreign Trade.
Although information in National Economy on foreign trade is
very limited in coverage, the information is important because it is
the first detailed information on the composition of trade released
in the postwar period. The commodity composition of Soviet foreign
trade as presented in the new handbook in percentage terms rather
than in ruble valuations is given in Table 6.
Table 6
Commodity Composition of Foreign Trade in the USSR
1938, 1950,
19540 and 1955
Percent of Total Value
Commodity
1938
1950
1954
1955
Exports
Machinery and equipment
5-.0
16.3
21.5
22.1
Fuel and raw materials
57.7
50.7
58.5
59.9
Grain
21.3
18.5
12.2
10.3
Consumer goods
16.0
14.5
7.8
7.7
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Imports
Machinery and equipment
34.5
27.1
32.6
33.0
Fuel and raw materials
60.7
56.6
46.2
48.0
Consumer goods
4.8
16.3
21.2
19.0
(Of Which, meat and
dairy products
0.3
1.9
6.0
4.2)
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
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Table 6 underscores the shift in the composition of Soviet
exports away from grain and consumer goods exports into increasing
emphasis on exports of machinery and equipment.
H. Index of Per Capita Consumption.
The final effect of the new data released in National
Economy, including the new population figures, is to revise
drastically estimates of postwar trends in the Soviet standard of
living. The Soviet consumer is better off than had been believed
previously. Per capita consumption now is estimated to be 4o per-
cent above 1928 (instead of the previous estimate of 20 percent),
and per capita food consumption now is estimated to have declined
only 4 percent below that in 1928 (instead of the previously esti-
mated decline of 15 percent). A new report is in process which
will incorporate the data revisions affecting the index of total
consumption. 22/
In terms of aggregate studies, a major new conclusion stem-
ming from the new report is that the cost of forced industrialization
since the war has been overestimated and that the "iron ring" around
increases in living standards has been less tight than estimated.
I. Price and Cost Movements, 1950-55.
National Economy provides some important indexes of price
and cost movements during recent years. Table 7* summarizes some
of this information, which should be used carefully until more is
known about the methodology used by the Soviet statisticians in
the derivation of the various series.
During the period 1950-55, over-all investment costs have
declined slightly more than construction-assembly costs. Procure-
ment prices for equipment declined somewhat more than construction-
assembly costs.
Equipment procurement prices appear to have declined sig-
nificantly more than have total industrial production costs. This
tends to confirm recent Soviet statements that in recent years
equipment prices have been reduced more than prices of basic materials.
* Table 7 follows on p. 22.
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In the state retail market, nonfood retail prices have not
declined as much as retail prices for food items. Food retail prices
have declined 51 percent from the 1950 level. AS there had been a
sharp rise in food prices between 1940 and 1950, this decline after
1950 still left food prices in 1955 41 percent above 1940 prices.
During the same 1950-55 period, prices on the collective market rose
7 percent. Table 7* shows the indexes of price and cost movements
In the USSR in 1950-55.
J. Education and Training.
Data given in National Economy give additional weight to
recent Western estimates of the importance of Soviet training
programs in higher education and in training of specialists. Strict
comparability with corresponding US programs, however, involves
analysis of the qualitative comparability, an analysis beyond the
scope of this memorandum.
Data on the postwar decline in the number of grade-school
children support a lowered estimate of the young population.
K. Regional Data.
National Economy presents many statistical series which are
broken down by republics. Among these are series on the production
of selected industrial commodities, land use, population, workers
and employees, and retail trade.
The greatest disadvantages in the use of the breakdown by
republics are created by the overwhelming size of the RSFSR, which
comprises more than half of the population and almost two-thirds
of the industrial strength of the USSR. This gigantic republic
contains 8 of the 12 economic regions of the USSR. EV On the other
hand, for Gosplan planning purposes, many of the smaller republics
are amalgamated into larger economic regions. Thus the Turkmen,
Kirgiz, Uzbek, and Tadzhik Republics are treated as a single economic
region. Whereas the data by republics are useful to regional analysis,
they are not as meaningful as data in terms of the Oosplan planning
regions.
Table 7 follows on p. 22.
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Table 7
of Price and Cost Movements in the USSR
1950-55
Construction
Assembly
Year Costs b/
Capital
Investment
Cots
Price Changes
Affecting
Costs of State Retail Prices 2/
Industrial
Production 2/ Total Food Nonfood Market 1/
Collective
1950
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1951
93
98
91
89
95
1952
89
95
88
82
95
1953
89
92
78
72
88
1954
88
92
74
69
81
103
1955
82
81.5 EJ
95 II/
74
69
81
107
a. 24/
b. 25/
c. 7-6y
e. Estimated.
f. Increase during 1955 was
foodstuffs.
caused largely by increased procurement prices for
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L. Military Production Index.
National Economy gives new data which ultimately will assist
in the derivation of a time series index for- production of military
end items. The new data, however, are not adequate in themselves,
and some major gaps in information still exist. A production index
for machinery* is given as well as a production index for consumer
durables. In addition, it will be possible to derive an index of
producer goods used in capital investment. It may be possible ulti-
mately to derive value weights for a given year for investment goods
and for consumer durables. Production series given for specific
items aid in the derivation of a civilian machinery index. The deri-
vation of an index series for production of military end items
classified as machinery is hindered by the lack of a figure for the
total value of output of machinery in a recent year and of a firm
time series for the value of exports and imports of machinery.
III. Significance of Omissions of Data.
As previously indicated in the Introduction, many major categories
of information are lacking from the new handbook, National Economy.
To summarize, no data are given which pertain to budgets, finance,
defense, wages, aggregate value of production (in total or by branch
of the economy), investment by industry or by branch of the economy,
state reserves, or production of light metals. Comparatively little
information is published concerning foreign trade/ agricultural pro-
duction, communications, and the production of such important indus-
trial commodity groupings as chemicals.
Although many of the omissions would appear to be required by
strict adherence to the State Secrets Act of 1947, some agitation
for even greater liberalization of information controls has already
emerged in the Soviet press. Thus an article written in Pravda asks/
"Can Narodnoye khozyaystvo be the first robin heralding the coming
statistical spring?" 22 The same article goes on to state that it
would be desirable for the Central Statistical Administration to give
more attention and space to composite data in future statistical hand-
books: "Data concerning the budget and credit, profits and their
* The category "machinery" is used in the comprehensive sense and
Includes goods more strictly defined as equipment. Previous index
series had been given for the more inclusive category of "machinery
and fabricated products."
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distribution, the profitability of individual branches of the national
economy, the cost of shipments, tractor operations at the MTS, state
farm output and other general economic indexes which are still missing
in Narodnoye khozyaystvo will now undoubtedly assume prime importance."
Among the gaps in information is one of a different type and one
of great importance. In many of the time series presented in the
book, the years 1951, 1952, and 1953 are omitted. This is most
obvious in the case of the production series for various producer
goods. The result of this omission is to make it difficult to
analyze the effect of the Korean War on the Soviet economy. The
production series on output of tractors do include these years and
reveal, as previously estimated, a significant reduction in the
level of production. Data on production of locomotives also indi-
cate a significant cutback during the Korean War, as previously
estimated.
Despite the gaps In coverage, a significant liberalization is
occurring in the release of economic information by the USSR. In
consequence, officially published statistics should be of greater
assistance in the analysis of the Soviet economy.
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APPENDIX A
STATISTICAL TABU'S
Table 8
Effect of Revised Value-Added Weights
on the Index of Industrial Production
In the USSR
1948-61
I. Revision of Weights
Value-Added Weights
(Percent)
Sector Computation A 2/ Computation B 12/
Electric power 3.7
Solid .fuels 9.5 'JF
Petroleum and its products 4.0
Ferrous metals 7.1
Nonferrous metals 3.6
Forest products 7.1
Chemicals 3.3
Construction materials 4.6
Total materials 42.9
Fabricated metals
Manufactured consumer goods
Food products
Total
33.9
11.0
12.2
2.9
10.5
10.5
12.8
3.6
5.5
45.8
34.8
12.5
6.9
100.0 100.0
=====
a. Computed by using 1 January 1951 employment by branch of
industry as announced in the Fourth Five Year Plan (1946-50)
fulfillment, average wage data per industry from the 1941 Plan,
and amortization data based. on adjusted data from the 1941 Plan.
b. Computed by using data on employment by branch of industry
as published in National Economy, together with average wage and
amortization data used in computation A.
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Table 8
Effect of Revised Value-Added Weights
on the Index of Industrial Production
in the USSR
1948-61
(Continued)
II. Effect of Revision of Weights upon the Index
of Industrial Production
Year
Index of Industrial Production
(1955 = 100)
Computation A 2/
Computation B 1/
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
41
49
57
65
69
78
88
100
111
122
135
149
165
182
41
49
57
64
69
78
88
100
111
122
136
150
166
183
c. Constructed by using value-added weights noted in
computation A.
d. Constructed by using value-added weights noted in
computation B.
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Table 9
Effect of Data Revisions on the Index of Agricultural Machinery
in the USSR
1948-61
Year
Previously Published
CIA Index 2/
Index Based on Data Givyi
in "National Economy" 21
1948
27
27
1949
30
30
1950
33
33
1951
38
38
1952
42
42
1953
55
55
1954
77
77
1955
100
100
1956
112
114
1957
123
128
1958
136
143
1959
146
157
1960
162
176
1961
170
185
a. A Sixth Five Year Plan (1956-60) goal of a 76-percent in-
crease in the output of farm machinery was indicated in
National Economy. This is a revision of the original Sixth
Five Year Plan draft directives which announced a goal of a
62-percent increase in the output of farm machinery during
1956-60. This revision, however, would not change the ORE
index of fabricated metals during 1956-60, because the official
Soviet goal of an 80-percent increase in the fabricated metals
sector of heavy industry was accepted by ORE in the construction
of the previously published index. 29/
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APPENDIX B
SOURCE RhliERENCES
Evaluations, following the classification entry and designated
"Eval.," have the following significance:
Source of Information
Doc. - Documentary
A - Completely reliable
B - Usually reliable
C - Fairly reliable
D - Not usually reliable
E - Not reliable
F - Cannot be judged
Information
1
2
3
4
5
6
- Confirmed by other sources
- Probably true
- Possibly true
- Doubtful
- Probably false
- Cannot be judged
"Documentary" refers to original documents of foreign govern-
ments and organizations; copies or translations of such documents
by a staff officer; or information extracted from such documents
by a staff officer, all of which may carry the field evaluation
"Documentary."
Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing on
the cited document; those designated "RR" are by the author of
this report. No "RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees
with the evaluation on the cited document.
1. USSR, Central Statistical Administration. Narodnoye
khozyaystvo SSSR, statisticheskiy spornik, Moscow, 1956.
U. Eval. Doc. (hereafter referred to as Narodnoye)
Translated in CIA, FDD Translation no 566, 29 June 56,
The National Economy of the USSR, a Statistical Compila-
tion. On USE. Eval. Doc. (hereafter referred to as
FDD translation)
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2. Pravda, 7 Jun 56. U. Eval. RR 1.
3. CIA. CIA/RR IP-434, Soviet Capabilities and Probable
Courses of Action Through 1961, 2 Apr 56. S. (here-
after referred to as CIA/RR IP-)-134)
4. Narodnoye (1, above), p. 190; FDD translation (1, above),
p. 195-19
Narodnoye,
Narodnoye,
Narodnoye,
Narodnoye,
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
b.
p?
p?
p?
p?
33; FDD translation, p. 17.
32; FDD translation, p. 16.
158-159; FDD translation, p. 163-164.
160; FDD translation . 165.
10. Narodnoye, p. ; FDD translation, p. 163-164.
11. Narodnoye, p. 162-164; FDD translation, p. 168-170.
12. Narodnoye, p. 164; FDD translation, p. 169-170.
13. Narodnoye, p. 24-25; FDD translation, p. 8-9.
USSR, State Planning Commission. Socialist Construction
of the USSR, Moscow, 1939, p. 12-13. U. Eval. Doc.
14. Narodnoye, p. 169; FDD translation, p. 176.
15. Narodnoye, p. 93; FDD translation, p. 88.
16. Narodnoye,. p. 55 and 60; FDD translation, p. 40-41 and 50-51.
17. CIA. CIA/RR IP-434 (3, above). S.
18.
19.
20..
21.
22. CIA. ORB Project 30.830, Consumption in the USSR, 1928-55
(to be published). S.
23. CIA. ORR/D/GC, Map no 13702 ()i-55) USSR: Administrative
Divisions and Economic Regions, Jan 55. U.
24. Narodnoye,
25. Narodnoye,
26. Narodnoye,
27. Narodnoye,
28. Pravda, 7 Jun 56. U. Eval. RR 2.
29. CIA. CIA/RR IP-434 (3, above). S.
Narodnoye,
p.
41; FDD translation, p. 24.
Pravda, 15
Dec
54. U. Eval. RR 2.
Narodnoye,
p.
p.
57; FDD translation, p.
53; FDD translation, p.
45.
38.
Narodnoye,
p.
210;
FDD translation,
p.
215.
p.
169;
FDD translation,
p.
176.
p.
93;
FDD translation,
p.
88.
p.
215;
FDD translation,
p.
221.
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