CHINESE COMMUNIST PROGRAM FOR CONTROL OF THE YELLOW RIVER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00935A000300220001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 27, 1998
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 7, 1955
• Content Type: IM

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51
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
CHINESE COMMUNIST PROGRAM
FOR CONTROL OF THE YELLOW RIVER
CIA/RR IM-415
7 October 1955
WARNING
THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE
NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE
MEANING OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, USC, SECS.
793 AND 791., THE TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF
WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS
PROHIBITED BY LAW.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
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CONTENTS
Page
I. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
II. Flood Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
III. Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
IV. Irrigation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ? . . 5
V. Soil Conservation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ? . . 5
VI. Navigation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . 6
VII. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Appendix
Source References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Map
China: Yellow River Basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . .
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CIA/RR IM-415 S-E-C-R-E-T
(ORR Project 15.950)
CHINESE COMMUNIST PROGRAM
FOR CONTROL OF THE YELLOW RIVER*
On 18 July 1955 the State Council of the Peoples' Republic of
China approved and presented to the Peoples' Congress an ambitious
multipurpose program for the permanent control and development of
water conservancy projects in the Yellow River basin. /** Although
the entire program will require over 50 years to complete, the major
part of it, including construction of most of the dams, is planned
for completion by 196'7, the last year of the Third Five Year Plan
(1963-67). Among the purposes of the program, which will materially
aid Chinese Communist economic development, are the control of
flooding in the lower reaches of the river and erosion in the middle
reaches, the construction of hydroelectric generating plants at many
of the planned dams, the construction of large irrigation systems,
and the development of the main stream for small craft navigation.
The program follows closely the principles outlined in the program
planned by US engineers in 1946-47, J although the Chinese Communists
have placed a greater emphasis on development around Lanchow. Plans
and investigations of the US program very probably are being used by
the Chinese Communists.,
The Chinese Communists estimate that the first phase of this pro-
gram alone, which is to be completed by the end of the Third Five Year
Plan, will cost about 5.3 billion yuan. This may be compared with 2.5
billion yuan allocated for all water conservancy projects throughout
China in the First Five Year Plan (1953-57).. It appears that the
Chinese Communists may allocate to the Yellow River project in the
next 1.0 years up to one-half their total investment in water con-
servancy. Because of the general nature of the Chinese cost esti-
mate, it is not possible to analyze or evaluate the cost of the
program. It is difficult to compare the cost of such a project with
a similar one in-the US because of the vast difference in the cost of
inputs, particularly of labor.
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this memorandum repre-
sent the best judgment of ORR as of 1 September 1955.
** For serially numbered source references, see the Appendix.
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II. Flood Control.
The Yellow River flood problem, which has been termed "China's
sorrow," has existed for centuries. Rainfall i the basin is erratic
and seasonal. Of the annual precipitation,, whi h averages about 400
millimeters (15.7 inches), about 50 percent fal s during July and
August. During these months the rate of d:scha ge increases some
20 times over normal. In the middle reaches the stream flows through
:Loose and fragile loess deposits which erode easily, especially during
periods of heavy rainfall. The river waters become heavily laden with
silt -(up to 50 percent by weight), and in the bower reaches, when the
stream slope decreases as the stream flows on to the level Ncrth China
plain, much of the silt is deposited on the ril~r bottom. This pro-
cess has occurred for centuries and has caused the mean river bed
actually to lie above the river flood plain. Oily the continued
building of dikes and retardation basins has coitained the river in
this section to any degree, and the area skill experiences more than
one flood every 2 years. The annual direct dage to property has been
estimated at US 4,15 million, J which represents an enormous cumula-
tive drain on the economic resources of the area.
In order to alleviate this condition, the present program pro-
vides for control of the flow of water and sil ? by (a') constructing a
series of dams and reservoirs on the main stre and tributaries in
order to detain flood waters and (b) preservin water and soil in the
Middle reaches of the basin through extensive fforestation and other
soil and water conservation measures. Forty-s x dams are planned for
the entire progrFn (44 in the middle reaches a d 2 in the lower reaches).
Two main dam complexes have been described, inithe San-men Gorge and
the Liu-chia Gorge, as shown in the following p.* The San-men Dam,
with its tributary dams, was part of the Yellow River conservancy pro-
gram recommended and planned by the US engineering group. According
to the Chinese Communists, this project will b designed and constructed
by the USSR. Completion of the San-men project in 1961 and the probable
completion of the Liu-chia project by 1967 should reduce the maximum
flow in the lower river to containable amounts
Although con:3truction will not be started n the dams until about
1957, work is to be started immediately on bui ding additional flood
retardation basins and on strengthening and re nforcing the existing
T map follows oa p. 3.
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h hydroelectric power
e.fi.l. Flood coot.ol
v,i-efion planned.
ALA SHF44
DESERT
LUN trA G>t
Adlb Pp .,,.~.....:at
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E DAM
' W e dsoil
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_ # ?:3 _
gl
n
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8
X11 /t Al r ere P A?,## tb Yellow R but
ht_Mpsk ,mportaR abbwn
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dikes and flood retardation basins in the lower reaches of the
river to aid in flood prevention during the period of construction
of the main river dams. The first phase of the program, including
construction of most of the dams, is planned for completion by the
end of the Third Five Year Plan, but the program as a whole, covering
the long-term water and soil conservation projects, is not planned
for completion until after the turn of the century.
III. Power.
The hydroelectric power aspects of this program are extremely im-
portant to Chinese Communist industrial and irrigation expansion in the
Yellow River basin. None of the hydroelectric generating sites along
the Yellow River has yet been exploited. The Chinese Communists esti-
mate that the completed system will have a theoretical total capacity of
23 million kilowatts (kw), providing 110 billion kilowatt-hours (kwh)
LUNqGMZN AO HUATU
~
T"M OAM
?7N'aifeng
~.rANi POWER STATION
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per year, or aDout 10 times the national, production in 1954. During
the first phase of the program, at least. the two largest dams, the
San-.men and Li-i-chia projects, will have generating equipment
installed.
The San-men Dam, with a reservoir about equal to the capacity of
Lake Mead (behind the Hoover. Dam) and a head of 70 meters, is esti-
mated by the Chinese Communists to have a th oretical power capacity
of about 1 mil'.-ion kw, providing about 4.6 b Ilion kwh of electricity
annually. It :Fs not known how much of this 4apacity the Chinese plan
to install. The Chinese Communist figures o4 minimum flow standards
at the site (500 cubic meters per second), however, indicate that the
plant could ma:.ntain only about 280,000 kw throughout the year. Never-
theless, the industrial areas served by the site, including the
T'ai-yuan and FL'ai-feng industrial complexes by 1961 will have 10
times the amount of power available to them today; or, in other words,
these industriFa areas will be enabled to expand output by nearly 10
times as a result of the additional power which will become available
within the next, 6 or 7 years.
This increE,se in available power production upon completion of
hydroelectric facilities is even more outstanding in the case of the
Liu-chia Dam. Its reservoir is relative:Lys 11, but it will have
a head of 107 meters and a minimum flow not mach less than that of
the San-men Dam.. The Chinese Communists est to that this plant will
have a theoretical power capacity of 1 millio kw, providing 5.23 bil-
lion kwh of electricity annually. Again;, usi g the Chinese Communist
figures on planned minimum flow (465 cubic meters per second), it is
indicated that the plant could maintain only ,bout 400,000 kw through-
out the year. This is more than 200 times the amount of power now
available in the Lanchow area.
One of the aims of the First Five Year P1 n is to begin the move-
ment of industrLal concentration inland from he coastal area. The
program to supp.Ly a large amount of power in he Yellow River basin,
which presently is deficient in power, indicates that the Chinese
Communists may ')e starting the preliminary steps toward this objective.
That the initia:L power projects will not be o uerational until after
1961, and for t:ie most part until after 1967,!indicates that large-
scale industria:Lization in the basin will be . long-term program.
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IV. Irrigation.
Although flood conditions are a serious problem in the lower
reaches of the Yellow River, drought conditions brought on by the
erratic rainfall patterns are a deterrent to agriculture in the middle
reaches, and irrigation is necessary in order to insure regular and
good crop yields. The long-term program provides for an increase in
the irrigated area along the river from the present 1.1 million hec-
tares (1 hectare = 2.47 acres) to 7.73 million hectares, which would
increase grain production by 6.85 million metric tons and. cotton pro-
duction by over 600,000 metric tons.
By the end of the first phase of the program in 1967, the Chinese
estimate that 2 million hectares will be added to the irrigated area
along the river and that 800,000 hectares of existing irrigated land
will be improved. Accordingly, the annual food production will be
increased by 2.73 million metric tons and cotton production by 200,000
metric tons. During this first phase of the program, five large dams
will be constructed on the main stream, primarily for irrigation. One
of these, in the Lung-yang Gorge above Lanchow, will aid an already
heavily irrigated area. Three of these, at the Ching-tung Gorge, the
Hei-shan Gorge, and Ho-ch'u, will service a fertile valley plain lacking
in moisture. This area, part of the hard-wheat belt, produces the best
quality of wheat flour in China, comparable to high-grade Canadian or
US flour. In the past, however, crop yields have. been very low because
of the erratic and uncertain precipitation. in this semidesert area.
Another irrigation dam will be located on the main stream. at
Tao-hua-tu below the San-men. Gorge and will furnish additional water
to the important wheat and cotton areas on the North China plain.
Erratic rainfall in the past has limited severely the cotton crop
yield. In addition to a probable doubling of the cotton yield per
hectare, / irrigation possibly will increase the proportion of land
planted in cotton.
V. Soil Conservation.
The Yellow River program also calls for extensive soil'_ conservancy
projects, especially in the lower middle reaches of the main stream,
where the greatest soil erosion occurs. By conservancy measures alone
the Chinese Communists hope to reduce by half the amount of silt
being dumped into the Yellow River. Most of these conservation
measures are long-term, but work is to be started on them immediately
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so that the earliest possible reduction in eroded material entering
the river can be realized. In addition to :?lans for improving
farming techniques and soils, conservation work will be carried out
in afforestation end in localized water conservancy projects de-
signed to detain eroded material close to its source.
Once the rate of flow is stabilized and the silt retarded upstream,
the Yellow River .n its lower reaches probably will stabilize its
course within a short time, and crop production on the North China
plain, already one of China's richest agricultural regions, should in-
crease considerab_y. J
VI. Navigation.
Of minor impo:,tance to the economy as a whole are plans for develop-
ing navigation along the Yellow River. In the past., navigation has
been limited to s;nall craft and rafts, but regulation of river flow
by the end of the first phase of the program will permit navigation on
some sections of the river by craft of less thai 500 gross register
tons.
VII. Conclusion.
At the earliest, it will be 10 years before the Chinese Communists
realize any appreciable return on the Yellow River program, a program
which will consume a large part of the investment allocations for con-
servancy for a lcng period. From the power asp ct of the program,
construction of hydroelectric plants, especial in the Ianchow area,
will provide essential elements for future industrialization. From
the agricultural point of view, water conservancy measures are as
important as expansion of the chemical feriili-er industry as a means
of obtaining increased crop production.
In view of the important results to be ach
in flood prevention, soil conservation, and in
production and power supply, and the favorable
accomplishments x.iight have on the implementati
5-year plans, the contrast in emphasis between
industry project:; in Chinese Communist economi
It is clear that the Chinese Communists are po
'
would seem desirable the building of the foun
economic development in favor of a concentrati
i d t Meanw iile "China's sorrow" will co
eyed from this program
reased agricultural
bearing which these
'n of the first three
conservancy and heavy
planning is striking.
:tponing longer than
Ltions for long-term
>n of investment in heavy
itinue to take its toll of
nus,ry. , .
crops, animals, and other property -- and irreplaceable soil.
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APPENDIX
SOURCE REFERENCES
Evaluations, following the classification entry and designated
"Eval.," have the following significance;
Doc. - Documentary
1
- Confirmed by other sources
A - Completely reliable
2
- Probably true
B
- Usually reliable
3
- Possibly true
C
- Fairly reliable
4
- Doubtful
D
- Not usually reliable
5
- Probably false
E
F
- Not reliable
- Cannot be judged
6
- Cannot be judged
"Documentary" refers to original documents of foreign governments
and organizations; copies or translations of such documents by a staff
officer; or information extracted from such documents by a staff
officer, all of which may carry the field evaluation "Documentary."
Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing on the
cited document; those designated "RR" are by the author of this report.
No "RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees with the evaluation
on the cited document.
25X1A8a
2. Public Works Commission. Studies on Yellow River Project,
no 10, "Preliminary Report on Yellow River Project,"
Nanking, Feb 47, U. Eval. RR 2.
Ibid., no 11, "Report on Investigating and Planning the
Development of the Yellow River Basin, China," Nanking, Feb
47, U. Eval. RR 2.
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3. Shen, T.H. Agricultural Resources o' China, Cornell
University Press, 1951, U. Eval. 2.
4. Ibid. I
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