LATIN AMERICA REGIONAL AND POLITICAL ANALYSIS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00912A000700010011-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 32
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2006
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: June 16, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2007/03/07 :CIA-RDP79T00912A000700010011-0
Secret
Latin America
REGIONAL AND
POLITICAL ANALYS
State Dept. review completed
S
Secret
RP ALA 77-044
16 June 1977
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Approved For Release 2007/03/07 :CIA-RDP79T00912A000700010011-0
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LATIN AMERICA
16 Juno 1977
CONTENTS
Brazil: Who Will Succeed Geisel?.
1
Press Censorship, An Issue i.n Brazil
6
Mexico: Border Industry Rebounds.
8
E1 Salvador: Terrorist Activities
Netherlands Antilles: Staten Election
15
17
Trinidad and Tobago: Dissension
in the ULF
21
Cuba: Growth of the Fishing Industry
25
This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington community by
the Latin America Division, Office of F2egional and Political Analysis, with oc-
casional contributions from other offices within the Directorate of Intelligence.
Comments and queries are welcome. They should be directed to the authors of the
individual articles.
RP ALA 77-044
16 June 1977
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CFrRFT
Brazil: Who will Succeed Geisel?
Although President Geisel's term does not expire
until March 1979, the issue of presidential succession
has already become the subject of political discussion.
Under the ground rules that have existed since the
military took power in 1964, the military leaders select
a candidate from the ranks of the active or retired
four-star army generals. The selection process has var-
ied over the years, and current tensions within Brazil--
inc:Luding the increasingly strident demands by various
civilian sectors for a return to democratic rule--suggest
that the process of choosing GE~isel's successor will be
particularly difficult.
been recent newspaper stories that retired General Euler
Bentes Monteiro is attempting Ito build support within
the pro-government political party.
While it is too early to :identify the most likely
presidential candidate, it is possible to indicate the
front-runners and to evaluate itheir current prospects.
One of the strongest contE~nders is General Sylvio
Frota who, as army minister, i:~ senior to the other
RP ALA 77-044
16 June 1977
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Possible Successors to the Brervative legislators will probably force a
showdown at t:he next party rneeting by demanding a vote
of no-confidE~nce in the party leader. Panday has said
that he will try to mollify the conservatives by dis-
missing some of the radicals. Shah, however, will prob-
ably insist ghat Panday res:Lgn as party lf~ader. At a
minimum he will demand that Panday agree i~o the elected
legislators having a majority voice in se:Lection of sen-
ators. The radical faction may temporari:Ly go along
with Shah in the hope that i:hey can later persuade him
to support their aims.
RP ALA 77-044
16 JunE~ 1977
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The extent of internal conflict in the ULF after
just two years of existence is evidence that the excite-
ment of the 1976 election and the solidarity between the
East Indian and the black leaders has dissipated. The
hard fact facing the ULF alliance is that the party's
dominance aver the other opposition parties in Trinidad
and Tobago is due to the votes from the East Indian cane
farming and sugar estate areas. The presence of black
trade union leaders in the al:iance did not induce signif-
icant numbers of black oil workers to vote for the ULF.
Even if Panday relinquishes leadership in the interest of
party unity, the alliance must demonstrate that it is
responsive to an essentially conservative constituency
before it can achieve a large enough expansion of the
party's electoral base to challenge Williams.
RP ALA 77-044
16 June 1977
23
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~! n i Y:e'd
5 x a _t `e s
Cuba: