MIDDLE EAST AFRICA SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00865A002300160001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 27, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 5, 1975
• Content Type: NOTES

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Top Secret
NOFORN
12fflp~ HOUE
Middle East
Africa
South Asia
Top Secret
146
SC No. 10374/75
December 5, 1975
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NOFORN/NO CONTRA CT/ORCON
Warning Notice
Sensitive Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved
(WNINTEL)
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
DISSEMINATION CONTROL ABBREVIATIONS
NOFORN- Not Releasable to Foreign Nationals
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ORCON- Dissemination and Extraction of Information
Controlled by Originator
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Release to ...
Classified by 010725
Exempt from General Declassification Schedule
of E.O. 11652, exemption category:
? 5B(1), (2), and (3)
Automatically declassified-on:
date impossible to determine
i
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This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington com-
munity by the Middle East - Africa Division, Office of Current Intelligence,
with occasional contributions from other offices within the Directorate of
Intelligence. Comments and queries are welcome. They should be directed to
the authors of the individual articles.
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Afghanistan: Daoud Seeks to Avoid Serious
Trouble with his Neighbors . . . . . . . . . . 3
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Afghanistan
Daoud Seeks to Avoid Serious Trouble
with his Neighbors
Afghan President Daoud is apparently trying
to ensure that neither Pakistan, his country's main
adversary, nor the Soviet Union, its principal
benefactor, will make trouble for his government.
Daoud has long been at odds with Islamabad because
of a territorial dispute. He also appears concerned
that his good relations with Moscow may be coming
under some strain because of his anti-leftist
domestic policies.
In recent months Daoud has passed up several
opportunities to intensify his government's inter-
mittent propaganda war with Pakistan. Early this
month, for example, Kabul replied in a relatively
low key when Islamabad erroneously accused it of
building its military strength along the two
countries' common border.
The main reasons for Daoud's restraint are
probably his awareness of Pakistan's superior military
strength and his apprehension that Pakistan could
decide to give substantial assistance to -
others in Afghanistan who have opposed
is regime. Daoud's concern over the latter pos-
sibility apparently increased last Jul when an
Islamic-oriented organization,
was said to have been involved in simul-
aneous outbreaks of anti-government violence in
several parts of Afghanistan.
The July incidents appear to have been, at
least in part, an expression of dissatisfaction by
some of Daoud's predominantly conservative Islamic
countrymen over leftist influence in his government.
In the months that followed, Daoud moved to ease
this discontent by dismissing or downgrading the main
leftists in the regime and by restoring his extended
family, the Mohammadzai, to the central role this
(Continued)
Dec 5, 1975
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family has traditionally played in governing the
country. Lately, however, Afghan officials have
reportedly indicated some concern that the purge of
the left, which is largely Moscow-oriented, might
antagonize the Soviet Union. The USSR has long
been Afghanistan's largest source of military and
economic aid and enjoys considerable influence among
Afghan army officers.
Daoud will probably seek to assure Soviet
President Podgorny, who is scheduled to visit
Afghanistan next week, that he has not abandoned his
signs that Daou s regime
is trying to forestall a hostile Soviet reaction to
the anti-leftist purge include a recent series of
approaches by Afghan officials to Soviet embassy
officers and a decision by Kabul to permit the long-
delayed opening of a Soviet cultural center.
Iran, Afghanistan's other immediate neighbor and
an important economic benefactor, probably hopes
that Daoud will stick to his current policy of
relative restraint toward Pakistan and also that
he will succeed in discouraging Moscow from actively
siding with the Afghan leftists. Tehran views
Daoud as probably more capable than anyone else in
Afghanistan of maintaining firm control over the
country and of preventing an upsurge of instability
and turmoil that could affect Afghanistan's neighbors.
The Iranians probably also see Daoud as better able
to resist Soviet domination than any leader who
might replace him. (SECRET NOFORN/NOCONTRACT/ORCON)
Dec 5, 1975 4
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