WESTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00865A002000240001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 17, 2005
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 28, 1975
• Content Type: NOTES

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Spanish Opposition to Go Easy During Early
Part of Transition . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Portuguese Government Takes Action to
Establish Its Authority. . . . . . . . . . . 6
Shaky Start Bodes Ill for Canada's
Economic Control Program . . . . . . . . . . 8
A New Try for a Common Energy Policy . . . . . 10
Compromise on Agriculture Falling Apart 12
at Multilateral Trade Negotiations . . . . .
One Small Step for Direct Elections to
Europe's Parliament . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
October 28, 1975
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Spanish Opposition to Go Easy During Early Part
of Transition
Various Spanish opposition groups indicate that
they will avoid direct challenges to General Franco's
successors at least during the initial phases of the
transition period.
--A leading official of the Communist-dominated
Workers' Commissions told the US labor attache
that the commissions have spread the word to
their members to avoid strikes and other pro-
tests during the transition period.
--Felipe Gonzalez, secretary general of the
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, told Ambassa-
dor Stabler that his party will give Prince Juan
Carlos "a chance" to open up the political
system.
--A Basque Socialist party official echoed
Gonzalez' sentiments.
--Gonzalez believes that Spanish Communist
Party leader Carrillo will adopt the same
attitude despite the contradictory statements
made by Communist Party officials.
--A close associate of Enrique Tierno Galvan,
leader of the Popular Socialist Party and a
rival of Gonzalez, claims that his party
will not make trouble, at least initially.
These comments suggest that most political
groups believe full-scale opposition tactics at this
time would only prejudice their long-term interests
October 28, 1975
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and invite repression. Their future course will,
of course, depend on their assessment of Prince
Juan Carlos' performance.
The first clues as to Juan Carlos' intentions
should appear in the nationwide speech he is expected
to make after the transfer of power ceremonies. He
hopes to form a new government and its composition
will be used by opposition groups to measure how far
and how fast Juan Carlos is prepared to press for
change.
The new head of state will not be able to satisfy
all shades of political opinion, but he has a good
chance of winning the support of a commanding majority
if he develops a policy that clearly departs from the
tenets of Franco's rule without appearing to be an
abrupt rupture from that era. Thus, he will have
to make some progress toward establishing a freer
political system, but only gradually, and with clear
indications that the evolution is being tightly
controlled by competent authorities.
Inevitably there will be some trouble regardless
of how skillfully Juan Carlos manages this process.
Fifteen alleged members of the far left terrorist
organization, Anti-Fascist and Patriotic Revolutionary
Front, were arrested over the weekend, but the group
will continue--and may intensify--its terrorist campaign
once Juan Carlos becomes king.
Violence from the extreme right may also increase.
On Sunday, a right-wing group called the Death Commandos
publicly ordered 17 prominent Catalans associated
with 'Leftist political groups to leave the country
within 24 hours of Franco's death or face execution.
The military, and to a greater extent the police
g a low-level alert status.
October 28, 1975
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Portuguese Government Takes Action to Establish
Its Authority
The Portuguese government appears to have
emerged from the events of the past few days with
its authority somewhat strengthened despite a series
of terrorist bombings and a spate of coup rumors.
On his arrival Saturday in Porto, Prime Minister
Azevedo said authority and discipline would be rein-
stated in Portugal "at any price." Although Azevedo's
words at a pro-government rally later in the day
were not as strong, the Prime Minister's trip to Porto
signaled his strong support for the northern com-
mander's efforts to restore military discipline.
These efforts had been undermined earlier this
month by Army Chief of Staff Fabiao when he acquiesced
to the demands of rebellious soldiers.
The Prime Minister said his visit to Porto
was the first in a series to various parts of the
country. He presumably will use the visits to
mobilize popular support for his government.
The Communists urged their supporters not to
attend a rally for Azevedo, but his appearance in
Porto drew about 100,000 people. The anti-government
demonstration last week in Lisbon drew only about
13,000.
The government has also taken other measures
to strengthen its authority. On Friday it announced
new commanders for the Republican National Guard and
the civil police. On Monday Cavalry troops blocked
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Communist-instigated farm workers from taking over
a privately owned farm in central Ribatejo, and in
Faro, on the southern coast, the army helped to
remove leftist demonstrators who had occupied the
civil governor's mansion.
The military alert announced on Friday ended
abruptly on Saturday with the explanation that the
country is now calm. Whatever the reason for the
alert--it may have been politically motivated--it
appears to have been skillfully used by the government
to at least temporaril seize the initiative and
marshal its forces.
October 28, 1975
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Shaky Start Bodes Ill for Canada's Economic
Control Program
The Trudeau government's new program of wage
and price controls is off to a very shaky start
even before the formal enabling legislation has
passed parliament. The US embassy notes that this
inauspicious beginning raises doubts about the
program's future success.
The strike by a major postal union over wage
demands far in excess of those allowed under the
program's wage guidelines continues to keep the
postal system closed for the eighth day. Neither
the government nor the union has given ground and
no settlement is in sight. General labor opposition
has also been growing. The Conference of Public
Service Unions, for example, gave Labor Minister
Munroe's plea for support a hostile reception'and
followed with,a vote opposing the wage controls.
The left wing New Democratic Party, which relies on
labor support, has come out against the controls.
Mild support has come from the Progressive-
Conservative Party, the press, and business leaders.
All the provincial premiers, with the exception of
Alberta's Peter Lougheed, have expressed some support
for Ottawa. Late last week British Columbia's New
Democratic premier, David Barrett shifted from
opposition to the program to a position of limited
support. The government has been disappointed,
however, by the failure of all of the provinces,
except Quebec, to set up anti-inflation review
boards to share the administrative load and to
remove some of the onus of unpopular rulings from
the federal Anti-Inflation Review Board.
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The nationwide sales campaign by the government
ministers has resulted in confusing statements which
have not helped clarify the program and have failed
to project an image of confident management. Even
the Prime Minister has added to the confusion by
appearing to tell workers they could get wage
increases in excess of the guidelines and in the
same speech saying that the government would take
away excessive wage boosts through increased taxation.
The embassy foresees some possible problems for
the US under the new controls. The attempt to
establish separate price schedules for domestic and
export markets, the failure to bring import prices
under the controls, and the repercussions should a
US controlled firm be among the first penalized under
the price control enforcement procedures, are all
potentially troublesome.
Trudeau's threat to impose even more stringent
controls should his current anti-inflation program
fail can not be discounted. He has shown in the
past. that. he is not afraid to use firm and highly
visible measures when confronted with a crisis.
b
October 28, 1975
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A New Try for a Common Energy Policy
Commission Vice President Simonet
is making a major last-ditch effort to
achieve a common EC energy policy. His
proposals contain something for each of
the Nine--including the independently
minded British--and could provide a new
impetus for bargaining in this long-stalled
area.
Simonet is holding his plan closely
but apparently would ask the member states
to agree:
--to speak with one voice on energy
matters internationally. The UK
would have to give up its demand
for a separate seat at the Conference
of International Economic Cooperation,
formerly the producer-consumer confer-
ence, now broadened to include development
questions in addition to energy.
France would not have to join the
consumers' International Energy
Agency, but would have to stop impeding
its work.
--to act together in a supply crisis.
France has considered such a commitment
provocative to the oil producers
and the UK has feared it would involve
sharing control of North Sea oil.
--to guarantee the profitability of
investment by community producers.
Designed as a major inducement to
October 28, 1975
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the UK, this is the key to the Simonet
program.
--to share information about oil supplies,
nuclear power, and other energy matters.
Another possible element in the program
would be a scheme for countries such as West
Germany, France, and Italy to provide capital
to speed up production particularly, but not
exclusively, in the North Sea.
The Commission is to discuss Simonet's
proposal October 29 and could approve a version
of it within a few days. Simonet may then decide
to submit it to the EC heads of government meeting
in Rome on December 1 and 2.
A political decision by EC member states
on whether to seek a common policy hinges primarily
on the Wilson government. Foreign Minister Callag-
han has insisted that London should have its
own seat rather than accept EC representation at
the conference on international economic cooperation.
He has been keeping even his own subordinates
in the Foreign Office guessing whether his attitude
is merely a negotiating tactic. Discussion
of Simonet's proposal in Rome might smoke him
out
New momentum toward a common EC energy
policy could conflict with the scheduled international
economic cooperation conference in Paris in
December, if the British, for example, were
to ask for more time to develop a community
position. Rebuff of the Simonet initiative,
on the other hand, is likely to bring EC efforts
to find a common energy policy to an and for
some time to come.
October 28, 1975
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Compromise on Agriculture Falling Apart at
Multilateral Trade Negotiations
The EC Commission is encountering problems--
particularly with France--in trying to get the
Nine to agree to a compromise reached earlier with
the US on how to negotiate agricultural issues in
the multilateral trade negotiations in Geneva.
Agricultural discussions in the trade negotiations
have been stalled by a long-standing US-EC dispute.
The EC wants to negotiate agricultural questions
separately from other trade discussions while
Washington favors integration of agricultural
issues with talks in other negotiating groups.
At a meeting of EC representatives in Geneva
last Friday France and, reportedly, two other
members objected to the agreement that had been
worked out only a week before by EC Commissioner
Soames and US special trade representative Dent.
Concern over the compromise itself was also
related to the US desire to keep discussion of
international grain reserves in a separate London
forum and out of the Geneva talks at this time.
The chief EC negotiator has called for
a meeting next week of the EC committee charged
with trade policy and may discuss the member
states' reservations with the EC committee of
permanent representatives in Brussels on Thursday.
The official believes these committees are more
likely to support the compromise than the lower-
level group of EC representatives in Geneva. Paris
may prove difficult to bring around, however,
feeling that any give by the EC could endanger the
EC's common agricultural policy.
October 28, 1975
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One Small Step for Direct Elections to Europe's
Parliament An ad hoc committee set up by the ambassadors
of the EC Nine to the Community has completed its
study of proposals for direct elections to the Euro-
pean Parliament. If the present schedule holds,
their "options paper" will be examined next month
by the Foreign Ministers and their report then pass-
ed to the heads of government who are meeting in
Rome on December 1-2. Even if all goes well, how-
ever, it seems increasingly unlikely that the tar-
get date of 1978 for the first such elections will
be met.
The committee used a European Parliament study--
the Pati_jn report, which was prepared and adopted
last January--as the basis for its deliberations.
The issues involved are thorny and many. Among them:
--The Rome Treaty provides that the procedures
for the elections must be uniform throughout
the Community. The Patijn Report recommended
that national procedures be used in 1978, but
that a uniform system should be ready by 1980
for use in 1983 elections.
--A single election for Parliament, rather than
staggered balloting to coincide with national
elections, is expensive. It could also prove
embarrassing to a government in power if an
off-year election showed a drop in the popu-
larity of government parties. However, a
single Community-wide date could be expected
to have greater impact on European public
opinion.
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--The Parliamentary report would allow a deputy
in the European Parliament simultaneously to
hold a seat in the national legislature. Such
a procedure, however, would give rise to a
number of potentially awkward administrative
and political problems.
--The report recommends an increase in the number
of parliamentarians from the present 195 to
355. This raises questions as to how the in-
crement would be apportioned as well as con-
cern in some quarters over the additional
expense.
These procedural matters, however, are over-
shadowed by the larger question of expanding Parli-
ament's now very limited powers. Proposals looking
toward this have proliferated this year and they will
be examined in a report being prepared by Belgian
Premier Tindemans for the EC heads of government.
Few persons would prophesize any meaningful increase'
in Parliament's role over the near term, however,
especially in view of current British and Danish
reservations. Direct elections by themselves would
not appear to enhance significantly the Parliament's
role, but the hope of those enthusiastically support-
ing this development is that a popularly elected
Parliament would soon insist on a politically signifi-
cant role within the Community. 25X1
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