MIDDLE EAST AFRICA SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00865A001900020001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 31, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 1, 1975
• Content Type: NOTES

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Confidential
No Foreign Discern
2UI~P KDUF~ 0
Middle East
Africa
South Asia
Confidential
No. 0861/75
October 1, 1975
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Warning Notice
Sensitive Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Classified by 010725
Exempt from general declassification schedule
of E.O. 11652, exemption category:
? 5B(1), (2), and (3)
Automatically declassified on:
Date Impossible to Determine
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MIDDLE EAST - AFRICA - SOUTH ASIA
This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington com-
munity by the Middle East - Africa Division, Office of Current Intelligence,
with occasional contributions from other offices within the Directorate of
Intelligence. Comments and queries are welcome. They should be directed to
the authors of the individual articles.
India-Pakistan: Strained Relations. . . . . . . 1
Pakistan: Defections from the Ruling
Party . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Oct 1, 1975
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The three year old process of normalizing Indo-
Pakistani relations has ground to at least a tempo-
rary halt, but neither side expects current strains
to lead to further serious deterioration in their
long-troubled relationship.
Two sets of bilateral negotiations are deadlocked.
Neither side is willing to compromise on the dispute
arising from the hijacking of an Indian plane to
Pakistan in 1971 and the subsequent mutual ban on
civil overflights that still is in operation. Sim-
ilarly, the latest round of talks relating to an
Indian dam project that will control an important
supply of water to Pakistan ended inconclusively last
month, and the matter probably will be submitted
eventually to arbitration.
The intermittent propaganda war between India
and Pakistan heated up during the summer despite an
agreement last May to cut back on negative commentary
in the media. In a recent exchange of messages over
the Indo-Pakistani "hot line," India accused the
Pakistanis of circulating reports abroad that New
Delhi might resort to an attack against Pakistan in
order to divert Indian public attention from the
government-proclaimed national emergency in India.
In response, Pakistan charged India with permitting
its censored press to publish articles criticizing
Prime Minister Bhutto and mocking Pakistan's
"democracy."
Recent events in Bangladesh have deepened Indo-
Pakistani mistrust. Early Pakistani and Chinese
recognition of the new government in Dacca is viewed
in India as an attempt to supplant the strong influence
India wielded in Bangladesh before the coup of mid-
August. The unsettled political situation in Dacca
seems to rule out any serious effort between Islamabad
and New Delhi toward rapprochement in the near future.
(Continued)
Oct 1, 1975 1
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Neither India nor Pakistan probably feels any
urgency to improve relations at this time. Most
of the problems resulting from their 1971 war have
already been settled. The dispute over Kashmir is
likely to remain stalemated indefinitely, and India
still shows little interest in resuming diplomatic
relations with Pakistan. Moreover, the two countries
are engaged in a bitter contest for a 2-year term
on the UN Security Council. (CONFIDENTIAL)
Oct 1, 1975
CONFIDENTIAL
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Pakistan
Defections from the Ruling Party
The defection of a former close associate of
Prime Minister Bhutto from the ruling Pakistan
Peoples' Party (PPP) keeps the political pot
boiling in the Punjab, Pakistan's most populous
province. Mustafa Khar, a former governor and
earlier a chief minister of the Punjab, announced
his resignation from the party on September 24
along with three supporters from among members
of the national assembly and eleven from the
provincial assembly. These losses do not sig-
nificantly affect PPP domination of both bodies.
The immediate cause of the defections was
the provincial party's decision, approved by
Bhutto, to select another politician as the PPP
candidate for a vacant provincial assembly seat.
Khar had sought the nomination and failure to
receive it led to his immediate resignation from
the party, an announcement that he would contest
the election as an independent, and a strong
denunciation of Bhutto and the "sycophants"
around him.
Khar has long been a controversial figure
in Punjabi politics and a major cause of intense
factionalism within the PPP. Over the years he
has made many enemies within the party, particularly
within the left-wing. Khar precipitated a con-
stitutional crisis earlier this year by his direct
meddling in the affairs of the provincial government
at a time when he held the post of governor, supposedly
a largely ceremonial position. Bhutto solved that
crisis in July by removing both Khar and his principal
rival, the chief minister. Reportedly the prime
minister subsequently offered Khar appointment to a
position in the central government or a post abroad.
Khar declined, apparently preferring to keep his
hand in provincial politics.
(Continued)
Oct 1, 1975 3
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Khar would appear to have little chance
of being elected as an independent, given PPP
control both of civil administration within the
Punjab and of the media. He can be expected,
however, to wage a bitter fight and probably will
try to appeal to Punjabi prOvincialist sentiment.
The consulate general in Lahore speculates that
Khar may be "playing a martyr's role with an
eye toward longer term political exploitation."
(CONFIDENTIAL)
Oct 1, 1975 4
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Confidential
Confidential
Approved For Release 2001/08/08 : CIA-RDP79T00865AO01900020001-0