LATIN AMERICAN TRENDS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00865A001300210001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 23, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 9, 1975
• Content Type: NOTES

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No Foreign Dissem
142
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Latin American Trends
Secret
July 9, 1975
No. 0517/75
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Warning Notice
Sensitive Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Classified by 005827
Exempt from general declassification schedule
of E. 0. 11652, exemption category:
? 5B (1), (2), and (3)
Automatically declassified
on: Date Impossible to Determine
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This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington com-
munity by the Western Hemisphere Division, Office of Current Intelligence,
with occasional contributions from other offices within the Directorate of
Intelligence. Comments and queries are welcome. They should be directed to
the authors of the individual articles.
CONTENTS
July 9, 1975
Panama: Impatient on Treaty Negotiations. . . 1
Peru: Pace of Transition Quickens . . . . . . 3
Ecuador: A New Navy, And, Again, Tuna . . . . 4
Cuban Chronology for June 1975 . . . . . . . . 6
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Panama: Impatient On Treaty Negotiations
Panamanian officials continue to use restraint
in their public statements about the canal treaty
negotiations, but at the same time, notes of concern
and impatience are becoming increasingly apparent.
In a speech in Mexico on July 5, General Torrijos
maintained that Panama's patience was running low,
and that violence was becoming a possibility. He
claimed that he was coming under increasing pressure
from a generation that "believes more in liberation
than negotiation." Torrijos also touched on a recent
recurrent theme in the Panamanian press: the 1976
commemoration of US independence. He said that he
will invite all Latin American chiefs of state to
Panama next year to view first-hand the "colonialist
knife" in Panama's heart put there by a nation that
fought for independence and freedom.
Torrijos' principal objective in Mexico was
obtaining a pledge of support for Panama's cause in
the negotiations with the US. He reportedly secured
a promise from President Echeverria to defend Panama's
stand in the countries he will visit during his cur-
rent foreign trip, and in the United Nations this fall.
The Panamanian leader will hope for similar suc-
cess in his talks with Alejandro Orfila, the new secre-
tary general of the OAS, who will be visiting Panama
for four days just before the opening of the OAS ses-
sion in Costa Rica on July 16.
Torrijos, his chief treaty negotiator Juan Tack,
and other officials will continue their efforts to
increase Panama's foreign backing, but they are likely
to feel a more pressing need to gain support at home.
Psychological setbacks such as the Snyder amendment
July 9, 1975
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adopted by the US House of Representatives, and pes-
simistic articles in the US press about the future
of the negotiations, coupled with growing criticism
in Panama of the administration's handling of the
negotiations, may convince Torrijos that he needs to
put more stress on the probability of trouble for the
US if a new treaty is not achieved. He could use
carefully controlled student demonstrations to
make the point, or he might try to contrive minor
harassing incidents to publicize Panama's unhappiness
with the present situation. Actions such as these
would not necessarily mean a reversal of his present
moderate public position, but would enable him to get
a measure of support from youth and other groups to
dull the domestic criticism. (CONFIDENTIAL/NO FOREIGN
DISSEM)
July 9, 1975
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Peru: Pace of Transition Quickens
Prime Minister and Minister of War Morales
Bermudez continues to solidify his base of power for
assuming the Presidency when General Velasco either
steps down or is incapacitated. Morales Bermudez'
moves in recent weeks have been interpreted by some
observers as a measured attempt to assume Velasco's
mantle. It would now appear, however, that the
prime minister is moving rapidly to fill the void
left by Velasco's seeming lack of attention to day-
to-day government operations.
The most recent move was the establishment of a
political advisory council to "study and provide
opinions on matters relating to the prime minister's
functions." The council is to be composed of "intel-
lectually and professionally qualified persons from
diverse social and economic activities who are not
governmental employees." Although the implementing
regulations have not yet been issued, this appears to
be a further step in an orderly transfer of power from
President Velasco to Morales Bermudez. The council
would complement the already well-established Inter-
Ministerial Economic Committee, and promises to provide
the prime minister with independent advice on broad
political and social issues.
That the new committee's functions would seem to
compete with the President's Advisory Council will not
be lost on local observers. More important, however,
will be how Velasco himself views the move. The Presi-
dent recently emphasized strongly to the cabinet that
Morales Bermudez is his successor, so this is not at
issue. But Velasco is not likely to stand idly by--un-
less he has lost interest in governing completely--
without some gesture at the prime minister's expense,
underscoring the fact that Velasco remains the Zider.
Morales Bermudez most likely will have to take two
steps back before continuing his climb to the top.
(CONFIDENTIAL)
July 9, 1975
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Ecuador: A New Navy, And, Again, Tuna
The Ecuadorean navy, the branch of the armed
services most in need of modernization, apparently
wishes to reestablish the close relationship it
maintained with the US several years ago. The ini-
tiative in this direction has been taken by Admiral
Alfredo Poveda, who became head of the navy only last
month.
An improvement in US-Ecuadorean naval relations
has in fact been brewing for about 18 months, since
the US military sales agreement with Ecuador was re-
instated, following a period of suspension brought
about by tuna boat seizures. During the period of
suspension, Poveda's predecessor negotiated aggressive-
ly and extravagantly for European and Japanese naval
equipment. More recently the Ecuadorean Government
has become painfully aware that its petroleum resources
are considerably less extensive than had previously
been thought.
Ecuador's navy is without doubt the smallest and
most antiquated on the west coast of South America.
In part, this is because, of the country's two imme-
diate neighbors, the possibility of a military engage-
ment is virtually zero with Colombia and only fraction-
ally above zero with Peru. Nevertheless, the need for
a modernized Ecuadorean navy can be persuasively pre-
sented.
Most of the country's agricultural development is
coastal, as is a significant part of its petroleum
wealth. In addition to the Trans-Andean Pipeline
terminal, there are three oil refineries and storage
depots on the coast. The country's largest port,
Guayaquil, is also its largest city. In addition,
Ecuador is making a concerted effort to develop the
July 9, 1975
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tourist, mineral, and agricultural resources of the
Galapagos Islands, situated about 700 miles from the
mainland.
Unfortunately, Ecuador's principal need for a
functional fleet is in an area where US-Ecuadorean
relations have suffered badly in recent years--tuna
fishing. Ecuador's claimed 200-mile territorial sea,
including a 400-mile-diameter circle centered on the
Galapagos, covers about 250,000 square miles of ocean.
To police the hundreds of seiners that come to or pass
through these waters during a good tuna run requires
many patrol craft (both sea- and air-borne), modern
communications equipment, and adequate base facilities.
Ecuador -watchers in the US--such officials in
Washington are easily outnumbered by tuna fishermen in
California--are of two minds. There are those who see
the navy's modernization and seizures of tuna boats as
totally unrelated, and there are those who see them as
intricately and irretrievably intertwined. The
Ecuadoreans themselves, however, see no relationship
between tuna and modernizing the navy.
It is possible that Admiral Poveda, with his cur-
rent initiative, is suggesting a face-saving accomoda-
tion of all concerned parties.
ucn an
arrangement would be mace possible by oil revenues,
which now far exceed traditional revenues from fining
fishing boats.
The key to whether such a compromise could work
is the influential tuna fishermen's association and
the understandable sympathy it evokes in the US Congress.
Whether the association is sufficiently flexible to live
with a compromise remains to be seen. (CONFIDENTIAL/NO
FOREIGN DISSEM)
July 9, 1975
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Cuban Chronology for June 1975
June 2: A delegation from the Peruvian Agrarian
Federation arrives in Cuba for a 2-week
visit at the invitation of Cuban National
Association of Small Farmers.
Norwegian Minister of Commerce and Shipping
Einar Magnussen arrives in Cuba for talks.
Cuba hosts international meeting on research
for domestic needs. Soviet bloc delegates
attend.
June 3: Special negotiating mission from Spain leaves
Cuba after discussing indemnification for
properties expropriated from Spanish citizens
during the early days of the Cuban revolution.
Negotiations began on May 8.
June 5: Cuban Ambassador to East Germany, Nicholas
Rodriguez Astiazarian, presents credentials.
An international banking group announces
grant to Cuba of 200 million marks ($84 mil-
lion) to finance a portion of its five-year
plan.
Panamanian delegation arrives in Havana to
give Cuban authorities a special report on
the negotiations for a new Panama Canal treaty.
Castro reaffirms Cuban support for the
"nationalist struggle of the Panamanian people."
June 6: Cuba and Bulgaria sign scientific and technical
cooperation agreement.
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June 8: A Cuban delegation arrives in Bogota to con-
clude a trade agreement with Colombia. This
is the first commercial mission to visit
Colombia since the renewal of relations five
months ago.
June 9- Latin American and Caribbean Communist Party
13 Conference meets in Havana. Communique
issued in Granma stresses unity and attacks
China.
June 10: President Dorticos undergoes spinal surgery.
Radio Havana later reports on his condition
as "excellent."
June 11: Cuba and Mexico sign sugar industry agreement.
Cuban and Czechoslovakian Communist parties
begin talks in Havana.
June 12: Cuba and Poland sign technical cooperation
pact.
Cuban sugar industry officials arrive in
Kingston for talks with Jamaican sugar of-
ficials.
June 13: Havana Radio carries announcement of Cuban
election to governing body of International
Labor Organization during its 60th world
conference in Geneva.
Cuba and Mexico announce signing of bilateral
oil exchange agreement.
Cuban UN Representative Alarcon addresses UN
decolonization committee stressing the impor-
tance of UN support "for the process of re-
forms now being undertaken by Portugal."
July 9, 1975
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June 13: Cuba and USSR sign protocol on development
of electric energy in Cuba. This is in
preparation for the construction of a nuclear
power plant in Cuba.
June 14: Cuba and Austria conclude tariff agreement.
June 14 Cuban Minister of Health concludes coopera-
-18 tion protocol with Polish Health Ministry.
June 15: Cuban Justice Minister Armando Torres
Santrayal arrives in Panama heading dele-
gation to 2nd Inter-American Conference on
the Legal Aspects of Economic Independence.
June 16: Seminar on the Cuban Revolution opens. Dele-
gations from 15 countries in attendance.
A team of Cuban sugar advisers arrives in
Georgetown, Guyana to consult with local
sugar technicians.
Czechoslovakian Communist party delegation
arrives for 10-day visit.
June 16- Congress of Cuban Communist Youth meets to
21 prepare for participation in World Congress.
June 17: Delegation of workers from the Cuban CP re-
turns to Havana after visit to North Korea.
Educators from Guinea-Bissau arrive in Cuba
to study educational system.
Vilma Espin, president of Cuba's Women's
Federation, arrives in Mexico City heading
delegation to UN Women's Conference.
June 18: Delegation of Cuban journalists arrives in
Vientiane, Laos for visit and meeting with
leaders of the Lao Patriotic Front.
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June 18: Cuba and Italy ratify scientific-technical
cooperation agreement.
Dr. Eric Williams, Prime Minister of
Trinidad-Tobago, arrives in Havana for five-
day official visit. Joint communique issued
June 24.
June 18- Cuban Communist Party delegation in
22 Moscow to study the CPSU's experience in
organizing party work.
June 23: Cuba and France sign cultural, scientific
pact.
June 24: Carlos Rafael Rodriguez heads Cuban delegation
to CEMA "heads of government" meeting.
June 25: Romanian Communist Party delegation arrives
in Havana.
Joint communique on establishment of diplomatic
relations between Cuba and Mozambique.
June 26: Delegation from University of Honduras and
student group from School of Economics arrives
in Cuba.
Cuban Public Health Minister Jose Gutierrez
Muniz arrives in Algeria on official visit,
is received by President Boumediene.
June 27: Hungarian Communist Party delegation arrives
in Havana.
PCC central committee delegation received by
Mozambique President Samora Machel. Dele-
gation attending festivities marking indepen-
dence of Mozambique.
July 9, 1975
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June 27: Cuba and USSR sign communications accord.
Cuba and Hungary sign agreement on nickel
plant construction in Cuba.
US representative Charles Whelan arrives in
Cuba on a five-day visit.
Chilean Communist Youth delegation arrives
in Havana at invitation of UJC.
June 28: Swedish Prime Minister Olof Palme arrives in
Cuba. He is the first Western European head
of government to visit the island since the
Cuban revolution.
Minister President of National Bank of Cuba
Raul Leon Torras arrives in Caracas to talk
with Venezuelan National Bank representatives
and to attend 6th UNIDO-sponsored meeting.
Cuban Communist Party delegation headed by
Isidoro Malmierca arrives in Kingston, at the
invitation of People?s National Party of
Jamaica.
June 30: Cuban Sugar Industry Minister Marcos Lage
arrives in Tokyo. (SECRET)
July 9, 1975
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