WESTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00865A000800270001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 19, 2005
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 25, 1975
• Content Type: NOTES

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Assessment of Political Opinions of Spanish
Air Force Officers . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Italy Finally Ratifies the NPT... . . . . . . . 7
Dutch Brace for Demonstrations by
Moluccans . . . . . . . . . . .
Spain and the EC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
UNESCO Continues to Grapple with Israeli
Issue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
DOS & DIA review(s) completed.
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Assessment of Political Opinions of Spanish Air
Force Officers
Political attitudes of Spanish Air Force
junior officers outside the Madrid area are
similar to those of their colleagues in Madrid,
according to a recent survey by the US Defense
Attache's office in Madrid. The junior officers,
like the higher ranks in the Madrid area, are
interested but not actively engaged in politics.
The survey revealed no evidence to substantiate
allegations heard since the military takeover in
Portugal that the younger Spanish officers are
forming associations.
These younger officers are, however, much
freer in expressing political opinions than had
previously been noted by US military observers
in Spain. The officers contacted--mostly captains
and majors--for the most part held similar views
on the current situation in Spain. Most expressed
dismay that Franco had not permanently relinquished
his powers to Prince Juan Carlos last summer.
They still respect Franco's past achievements,
but they feel he is not providing Spain with the
leadership it needs.
The younger officers believe that if a
free referendum on a monarchy were held, most
of the voters would turn it down. Although
most of the officers reject the monarchy as
a viable long-term institution, they will
support it at least for a transition period.
Yet there was ambivalence as to what would
occur in Spain after Franco goes. Some officers
maintained that nothing'would occur while others
predicted disorders that would require military
intervention.
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Bread and butter issues of pay, promotions,
and jobs are still primary concerns of Spanish
officers. They consider themselves professionals
and want increased access to the most modern
weapons and military concepts. They are aware
of the inadequacies of the older generals--
veterans of the Civil War--who are unable to
cope with new techniques,but the juniors still appear
willing to wait until the older officers retire.
The defense attache concludes that the younger
officers would not organize a power bloc to
advocate a program to initiate political change
but they might coalesce to oppose such a develop-
ment. The officers denied that the action of
young officers in the Portuguese revolution could
or would be duplicated in Spain.
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Italy Finally Ratifies the NPT
After stalling for years, Italy has completed
ratification of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
The Italians probably decided to ratify when
it became apparent that they lacked support in
the International Atomic Energy Agency for a legal
maneuver that would have allowed them to continue
receiving nuclear materials by ratifying the safe-
guards agreement required by the NPT, but not the
treaty itself.
Continued access to nuclear materials is
particularly important to Rome now that it is
seriously considering a plan intended to reduce
dependence on imported oil through the construction
of 20 new nuclear power plants by 1985. Canada,
one of Italy's major potential sources for uranium,
recently made it known to the Italians that their
request for supplies would not be considered un-
til Rome ratified both the NPT and the safeguards
agreement.
Rome must also have been influenced by its
failure to get around the provision making rati-
fication a prerequisite for full participation
in the NPT review conference of May 5.
Rome had long resisted pressure from the US,
the USSR, and many of its EC partners to submit
the treaty to parliament for ratification. The
Italian foreign ministry frequently claimed that
the treaty would run into stiff opposition in the
legislature.
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The treaty's speedy passage through parlia-
ment (it was submitted on March 26 and approved on
April 23), however, lends support to earlier indi-
cations that this was a smokescreen used by top
foreign ministry professionals to conceal their
own opposition.
There is no evidence that Italy wants to
join the nuclear club, but these officials were
clearly reluctant to give up the maneuverability
they thought Rome retained by keeping the option
open.
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Italy's ratification opens the way for the
remaining EURATOM states that have not deposited
their instruments of ratification--the Federal
Republic of Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium and the
Netherlands--to do so. They had expressed reluc-
tance to complete the process if Italy held out.
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Dutch Brace for Demonstrations by Moluccans
As many as 10,000 members of the South
Moluccan community in the Netherlands are ex-
pected to demonstrate in The Hague today. These
so-called "Black Dutchmen"--remnants of the Dutch
colonial army, that chose to live in the Nether-
lands when Indonesia became independent in 1950--
are marking the 25th anniversary of their proc-
lamation of independence for the "Republic of
the South Moluccas."
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Because of the increasingly militant character
of Moluccan nationalism--there was a riotous demon-
stration in December and a plot to kidnap Queen
Juliana earlier this month--Dutch authorities have
strengthened security in the capital. Officials
have refused to allow the Moluccans to organize a
march, alerted the police, and added 320 para-
military personnel to the city's police and
security forces.
The Dutch government would like Jakarta to
repatriate the more than 12,000 Moluccan soldiers
and their families. Indonesia has long been
reluctant to do so, and the more militant the
Moluccans become the less chance the Dutch
government has to get even a hearing in Jakarta.
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Spain and the EC
Both the EC and Madrid are showing increased
interest in resolving differences that would
enable the two sides to proceed with negotiations
on a new association agreement--perhaps by early
summer.
The EC countries, with an eye on Lisbon,
would like to strengthen economic ties with
Spain in preparation for the post-Franco era.
Madrid for its part regards an agreement with
the EC as a step toward Spain's goal of establishing
stronger security and political ties with Western
Europe.
The negotiations concern a new agreement
to supersede one Spain negotiated in 1970 beforep
Britain entered the EC. Under the EC offer,
Britain would gradually raise its tariffs on
imports of Spanish products to EC levels. At
.the same time, the EC would gradually reduce
its tariffs on Spanish products. Consequently,
Spanish negotiators have felt that Spain's benefit
would be limited.
Britain's indecision about staying in the
EC has added uncertainty concerning the consequences
of the new agreement for Spain. Madrid probably
hopes that the question may be clarified when
the UK referendum on EC membership is held on
June 5.
Spain has disliked being included, as one
of a group including the Maghreb, Malta, and
Israel, in EC policy toward the Mediterranean.
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It has preferred to conceive its association
agreement with the EC as a step toward eventual
full membership. The current impasse between
the EC and the Maghreb over terms of association
may encourage Madrid to try to get its own talks
underway.
Economically, the chief stumbling block
in earlier talks was the EC's demand that Spain
dismantle almost all its barriers to imports
of EC industrial goods by 1980 in return for
EC concessions on Spanish agriculture. Madrid
argued for 1984. A compromise under consideration
now would allow postponement of full Spanish
concessions until 1982 or 1983.
Madrid's readiness for negotiations with
the EC coincides with its newly expressed interest
in establishing ties with NATO. During a recent
negotiating session over renewal of US base
rights, the Spaniards told the US that if Washington
could not agree to a bilateral security guarantee
Madrid would opt for a relationship with NATO
that recognized Spain's contribution to Western
defense. Foreign Minister Cortina plans to
raise the issue with NATO ambassadors in Madrid
next week.
Madrid is aware that membership in NATO
is out of the question and that even an informal
relationship will be hard to attain. Most NATO
members--particularly Britain and the Benelux
and Scandinavian states--remain opposed to forging
any expli links with Spain while Franco remains
on stage.
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ANNEX
UNESCO Continues to Grapple with
Israeli Issue
Arab-Israeli frictions are causing prob-
lems for the UN Educational, Scientific and
Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and could im-
peril its immediate efficiency and possibly
its future.
At its 18th General Conference in November,
UNESCO passed two resolutions pertaining to
Israel that many western countries decried as
attempts to politicize the international organ-
ization and to shoulder Israel eventually out
of the group's activities.
One resolution called on Israel to halt its
archeological diggings in Jerusalem.. It alleged
that Israeli excavation work, particularly tun-
nels being dug along the Wailing Wall, had mar-
red the historic city. Arab governments have
charged Israeli archeologists with endangering
monuments and altering the historical character
of the Holy City, second only to Mecca in reli-
gious significance to Moslems.
The resolution also denounced the Israeli
construction projects on Arab lands in and
around Jerusalem. There have been eight similar
resolutions passed by UNESCO since 1968.
Israel has been unwilling to permit another
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inspection of the controversial excavations, sug-
gesting it does not feel this resolution can be
reversed or sufficiently softened to ease the
reaction it caused.
As a result, Israel was denied its cultural
grant from UNESCO which, last year, amounted to
$12,000.
In addition, the majority of the general
conference, led by the Arab states and many com-
munist countries, voted to deny Israel member-
ship in the European regional group, making it
the only country not belonging to one of UNESCO's
five regional forums, where an increasing amount
of organizational groundwork is accomplished.
The goal of full participation by all members in
at least one regional group is an important corol-
lary to UNESCO's historic goal of universality.
At the same conference, the US and Canada were
voted into the European group.
The issue of regional membership may be
susceptible to remedial action. Though Israel
may not vote on advisory resolutions considered
in official regional meetings of the five groups,
it may observe such meetings and participate in
UNESCO in every other way. Although Israel has
insisted nothing less than repeal of the resol-
utions is acceptable, interested countries will
probably work to neutralize the substantive
effects of the resolutions.
Meanwhile, Western dissatisfaction with the
resolutions on Israel will prove financially
harmful to the organization. Congress voted to
withhold US payment of its contribution, a
quarter of UNESCO's budget, until the resolutions
are rescinded. France and Switzerland cut their
donations by ten percent. Possibly even more
detrimental to the organization is the resultant
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boycott by hundreds of Western intellectuals
and artists from UNESCO-sponsored activities.
Representatives of many member states have ex-
pressed concern over the prospect of losing full
US participation and are interested in undertak-
ing some conciliatory action.
The UNESCO executive board is scheduled to
meet May 5-22 and could take some steps to ease
the problem. It may, for example, adopt a con-
sensus resolution expressing general reaffirma-
tion of the goals and principles of UNESCO. It
also could take steps to initiate a system where-
by regional admission would depend on the votes
of the relevant regional group. Most of the
West European countries voted to admit Israel
into their group in November.
Until the Israeli issue can be resolved,
UNESCO will have to cope with an unexpectedly
small budget. Severe austerity measures have
already been adopted, amounting to a 23 percent
cutback in its program. In addition to non-pay-
ment of the US contribution, the organization
must also contend with inflation and a decline
in the dollar exchange rate. A combination of
these factors will require UNESCO to request
non-interest bearing loans from members and
advance payments by no later than early 1976.
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