WESTERN EUROPE CANADA INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00865A000700090002-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 27, 2001
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: April 2, 1975
• Content Type: NOTES

Approved For Release 2002/01/10: CIA-RDP79T00865A0007000Sb"t
No Foreign Dissem
0 of,
rEo
Western Europe
Canada
International Organizations
Secret
No. 0166-75
April 2, 1975
1.01
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No Dissem Abroad/ControZZed Dissem
Warning Notice
Sensitive Intelligence Sources and Methods Involved
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Classified by 005827
Exempt from general declassification schedule
of E. 0. 11652, exemption category:
? 5B (1), (2), and (3)
Automatically declassified
on: Date Impossible to Determine
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 Approved For Release 2002/ATRDP79T00865A000700090002-5
WESTERN EUROPE - CANADA - INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington com-
munity by the Western Europe Division, Office of Current Intelligence, with
occasional contributions from other offices within the Directorate of
Intelligence. Comments and queries are welcome. They should be directed to
the authors of the individual articles.
Demirel Faces Confidence Vote in
Turkish Parliament . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Agricultural Protectionism Feared in EC . . . 3
Shelepin's Visit to Britain Ends Early . . . . 5
Icelandic Workers Reach Temporary
Agreement . . . . . . . . . . . .
Greek Center-Left Parties Demonstrate
Strength in Municipal Elections .
Speculation Mounts Over Possibility
of Franco's Stepping Down in Spain . . . . . 10
April 2, 1975
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Demirel Faces Confidence Vote in Turkish Parliament
Prime Minister-designate Suleyman Demirel will
present his program to parliament next Sunday for
debate and a confidence vote. The opposition, led
by former prime minister Ecevit, is waging an in-
tense campaign to defeat him, but Demirel still
appears to hold a narrow majority.
Ecevit's Republican People's Party, fearing
that its popularity has peaked, is apparently pull-
ing out all the stops in an effort to move Turkey
toward early elections. A proposal in the national
assembly that provides for elections within 60 days
was defeated in committee on Monday, but Ecevit is
still trying to bring it to the floor for a vote.
Ecevit's party is also trying to exploit per-
ceived weaknessess in Demirel's coalition. The
defection of even three or four deputies would
probably be sufficient to deprive Demirel of a
majority. Ecevit apparently believes that if he
is defeated it would probably lead to parliamentary
moves for early elections. The four independent
deputies who earlier appeared to be wavering in
their support for Demirel now appear to have fallen
back into line, but Ecevit's party still thinks it
might be able to pry some votes loose from coali-
tion members who are unhappy with the cabinet's
.composition.
Significant outbreaks of violence in opposi-
tion to the formation of the right-of-center gov-
ernment could also work to Ecevit's advantage by
prompting some of Demirel's more lukewarm supporters
to reconsider. A number of demonstrations have al-
ready been held on university campuses and a student
boycott is reported to be under consideration.
April 2, 1975
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The armed forces are reported to have moved
up the date for field exercises from September to
the first week of April to kee troo s occupied
during this critical time.
that unrest, particularly among junior o icers,
has increased as a result of Demirel's appointment
and parliament's rejection of a request for martial
law in the eastern provinces where Kurdish refugees
might try to cross into Turkey from Iraq. The ex-
ercises might also be intended as a show of force
to the Greeks. (Secret No Foreign Dissem/No Dissem
Abroad/Controlled Dissem)
April 2, 1975
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Agricultural Protectionism Feared in EC
There is concern in the EC that the French
decision to place a temporary ban on imports
of Italian wine may encourage protectionist
measures by other EC members.
The ban, like the various national aid
measures that provoked Bonn last September
to call for a showdown on EC agricultural policy,
would establish a precedent for dealing with
regional agricultural problems outside the
EC framework and in contravention of the common
agricultural policy. Officials in Brussels
fear that if they do not stop the French action
other members will be encouraged to protect
not only their agricultural interests but their
industrial sectors as well. Growing farm and
labor unrest, balance of payments difficulties,
and a slump in the steel sector create pressures
for protectionist measures.
Excess wine production in both France
and Italy and the political strength of the
French farmer prompted Paris to suspend wine
imports. The ban was designed to remain in
effect until April 28. Although the French
agriculture minister announced the move, Paris
informed Brussels that domestic wine importers
had imposed the embargo and that the French
government was not a party to it. Paris evidently
hopes that a solution to the surplus can be
found before the French bluff is called.
Italy has called for an early meeting of EC
April 2, 1975
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agricultural ministers, and the cabinet recently
agreed that trade reprisals would be implemented
if the French embargo is not soon ended.
Among the solutions that might be considered
are a massive distillation program to convert
surplus wine to industrial alcohol. This solution
probably would be more expensive than the French
proposal to subsidize wine exports to the Soviet
Union and other East Bloc countries. The French
company "Interagra" reportedly has already
contracted with the Soviet Union to sell 10.5
million gallons of wine. The wine remains
in France, however, with sale apparently contingent
on EC subsidies. The EC previously used subsidies
to deal with its butter and meat surpluses but
public reaction in member states has been adverse.
EC officials fear that if the extraordinary
council on agriculture--set for April 15--takes
place, members may raise other issues besides wine
and that one of the destructive EC free-for-ails
over agricultural policy may ensue. (Confidential
No Foreign Dissem)
April 2, 1975
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Shelepin's Visit to Britain Ends Early
The visit to Britain by Alexander Shelepin,
former chief of the Soviet secret police (KGB)
and now head of th e6 Soviet trade union council,
ended abruptly amid angry demonstrations
and hostile press coverage. Shelepin was clearly
an embarrassment to his hosts, the British
Trades Union Congress, and the visit failed
to achieve its objective of improving relations
between eastern and western labor organizations.
The trip, which had been scheduled from
April 2-6, was moved up to March 31--probably
for security reasons. These concerns apparently
also required that Shelepin's schedule be very
limited. He is known to have attended talks
at the headquarters of the Congress and went
to a dinner at the Soviet embassy for British
trade union leaders. He also may have toured
a factory in Scotland. He apparently did not
meet with British government leaders, although
there had been earlier speculation that Prime
Minister Wilson, who is trying to improve relations
with the Soviets, might decide to meet Shelepin.
Press coverage prior to and during the
visit was extensive, with virtually all the
papers opposed to Shelepin's inclusion in the
delegation. One leading political commentator
began his column with "There are murderers
among us." Only the communist press carried
favorable articles.
The visit was particularly embarrassing
to the Congress which had.hoped that it would
serve to underscore the labor organization's
April 2, 1975
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stake in supporting detente--specifically closer
ties to labor organizations in the communist
states. Instead, the visit may encourage serious
questioning by the union rank and file about
the advisability of the Congress's efforts
to move closer to the unions of eastern Europe,
particularly now that, from their viewpoint,
communist trade unionism has been personified
by Shelepin.
In its reporting on the Shelepin visit
Moscow has chosen to ignore the humiliation
of his surreptitious arrival and premature
departure and has confined its comment on the
s to Shelepin's own characterization
ti
d
t
on
emons
ra
of them as a "noisy campaign" by "a part of
the British press, Zionists and reactionaries
of every stripe" to undermine detente and discredit
the results of the Wilson-Brezhnev meeting.
Expressing "full satisfaction" with his talks
with the British TUC, Shelepin looked forward
to greater cooperation both in bilateral relations
and in the European trade union movement.
Despite the favorable gloss put on the
visit by the Soviets, the hostile public reception
accorded Shelepin in the United Kingdom, following
on the heels of the cool welcome given him
in West Germany, has no doubt devalued his
worth as a representative of the USSR in the
West and further weakened his prospects in
the succession sweepstakes. (Confidential
No Foreign Dissem)
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Icelandic Workers Reach Temporary Agreement
The Icelandic Federation of Labor's agree-
ment to a temporary wage settlement averted a
general strike set for April 7 and ended the
first phase of the general contract negotiations.
The new agreement provides assistance to
low-income workers in the form of monthly salary
hikes. Overtime and holiday pay will be increased.
In addition, the government is expected to do
some quick maneuvering to allow the agreement
to go into effect despite the current wage freeze.
The IFL threatened to call a general strike
prior to the temporary agreement because negotia-
tions were making little progress. Labor was
also disappointed with an economic package
announced by the government which they felt
did not provide enough assistance to low-income
workers.
The temporary pact is only valid until
June 1, 1975. In the meantime, negotiations
to reach a long term contract will continue.
Labor's demand for restoration of the wage-
index link which the government severed last
fall is still at issue. (Confidential)
April 2, 1975
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Greek Center-Left Parties Demonstrate Strength
in Municipal Elections
Nearly complete returns from Greece's major
cities in last weekend's municipal elections indi-
cate that the urban electorate may lean more
strongly toward the center-left parties than par-
liamentary elections last November suggested. In
the first local elections in a decade, candidates
in the larger cities backed by the opposition
significantly outpolled those with a conservative
or nonpartisan image. This occurred despite the
fact that the opposition did not work particularly
hard to get out the vote or identify the issues.
Although there are many aspects of the election
results that are ambiguous, the urban voter appar-
ently rejected Prime Minister Karamanlis' tactic
of trying to make the local elections non-partisan.
Supporters of Karamanlis' New Democracy party ap-
pear to have voted without instructions whereas
the leftists voted as a solid bloc.
In Athens, Volos and Patras, candidates
backed by a coalition of the Center Union/New
Forces, Andreas Papandreou's leftist PASOK and
the communists won handily. In Athens, the coali-
tion's candidate won 53 percent of the vote, taking
two third's of the Athens' city council for his
left-of-center ticket. The opposition failed to
win a majority in Greece's second and third largest
cities, Thessaloniki and Piraeus, where there will
be a runoff election next Sunday. In both these
cities the communist or moderate left candidate is
leading.
April 2, 1975
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The opposition has been making political
capital out of the results in an attempt to chal-
lenge the government's overwhelming majority in
parliament. Center Union leader George Mavros
has described the results of last November's
elections, in which Karamanlis won a top heavy
majority, as "circumstantial."
Although the opposition's success in the
municipal elections may be equally circumstantial,
it can take heart from the fact that many of its
supporters now have jobs and the imbalance against
it in parliament is corrected somewhat by the
failure of conservatives to do well in the polls
at the local level.
The new collaboration between extreme-leftist
and centrist. forces will be tested again in par-
liamentary by-elections on April 20 when common
front candidates of the Center Union/New Forces
and Papandreou's PASOK will contest New Democracy
for seats in Corfu and Kozani. (Confidential)
April 2, 1975
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Speculation Mounts Over Possibility of Franco's
stepping own in Spain
The extensive press coverage being
given to Prince Juan Carlos and his role
as future monarch suggests that a growing
body of opinion in Spain wishes to encourage
Franco to consider stepping down soon.
The press stories have reinforced recent
rumors that Franco may indeed be considering
relinquishing power wholly or partially
during 1975. Possible dates mentioned
are July--the anniversary of the Nationalist
uprising that began the Civil War--and
early fall--when a new legislature will
have been seated and a new political year
begun. The latest report alleges that
the changeover "will be a fact by June."
The argument advanced by those favoring
a changeover is that the monarchy should
be given an opportunity to function while
Franco is still alive and in a position
to ensure a smooth transfer of power.
Two regime figures have thrown cold
water on immediate succession possibilities.
Second Deputy Prime Minister Cabello de
Alba, in an interview last weekend, reportedly
said that there was no need to speed up
the succession process because Franco is
in excellent health. Even more pointed
was columnist Emilio Romero, director of
the National Movement's daily Arriba, who
in the April 1 issue quoted "a crystal
clear source at the top" to the effect
that no early transfer of power is contemplated.
(Confidential No Foreign Dissem)
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Secret
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