SOVIET UNION EASTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00865A000100380001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 7, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 16, 1975
• Content Type: NOTES

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Confidential
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HR
M
9C3
Soviet Union
Eastern Europe
State Dept. review completed
Confidential
14J
January 16, 1975
No. 0058/75
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CONTENTS
January 16, 1975
More Reassurance To the West. . . . . . . . . . . 1
Eastern Europe Reaction
to US-Soviet Trade Agreement. . . . . . . . . . 2
USSR: Jewish Emigration . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Romania Seeking More US Machinery . . . . . . . . 5
Yugoslavia To Expand Air Services . . . . . . . . 6
Large Soviet Computer
Fails Acceptance Tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Some Perspective on US-USSR
Commercial Relations During 1974. . . . . . . . 8
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More Reassurance to the West
Moscow has taken additional steps publicly to
reassure the West that the Soviets remain committed
to detente, despite rejection of US trade legislation.
The most explicit reaffirmation since Secretary
Kissinger's announcement came in a broadcast on
January 16 by Tass observer Anatoly Krasikov, who
derided Western rumors of a "sensational change" in
Soviet foreign policy. Krasikov justified the Soviet
action as resulting from a "flagrant contradiction"
between the 1972 trade agreement and recent US at-
tempts to interfere in Soviet internal affairs.
He went on to stress, however, continued Soviet sup-
port for relaxation of international tension and
mutually advantageous trade with the West, "not
excluding" the US.
Moscow also managed a plug for continued co-
operation with the US in Thursday's communique
following Australian Prime Minister Whitlam's visit.
The communique stressed the importance of Soviet-American
agreements--especially those on nuclear war and strategic
arms limitation--aimed at further improving the
international climate.
Meanwhile, the USSR continues to cite US
businessmen, congressmen, and journalists as under-
standing the Soviet position in refusing to imple-
ment provisions of the 1972 agreement.
Moscow may also have begun to point out to other
Western trading partners the silver lining they may
find in the US-Soviet cloud. Unofficial Soviet
spokesman Victor Louis reported to a London paper
on January 15 that the British may be invited to
fill orders originally destined fo
January 16, 1975
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Eastern Europe Reaction to
US-Soviet Trade Agreement
Following Moscow's lead the East Europeans are
blaming the US for the Soviet rejection of the trade
agreement, but are describing detente as a continuing
process.
Moscow's decision apparently caught its East
European allies by surprise. Initial coverage was
factual and brief, suggesting that the Soviets had
once again failed to consult with their allies.
The most authoritative :reaction has come from
Prague, where Foreign Minister Chnoupek met with the
US ambassador on Wednesday to inform him that
restrictions in the trade agreement specifically
aimed at Prague--and affecting Czechoslovak gold--
had produced "a very bad reaction." Although he
aid not close the door to continued negotiations,
Chnoupek did say that it might now be difficult to
move forward on other normalization measures, such
as opening a US Consulate General in Bratislava.
Prague has its own axe to grind, but Chnoupek's
remarks could signal that most Warsaw Pact capitals
:intend to be even less cooperative in meeting US
requests while keeping open the prospect of progress
if the new US Congress reconsiders the trade legisla-
tion.
Meanwhile, the Romanians and the Yugoslavs have
avoided taking an authoritative line, probably be-
cause of the difficulty in finding a safe middle
ground. Bucharest now is negotiating a new trade
agreement of its own with Washington.
Belgrade and Washington announced on Wednesday
that President Ford has accepted an invitation to
visit Yugoslavia, and this will serve to cool down
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those.Yugoslav leaders inclined to wade into the
controversy.
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USSR: Jewish Emigration
The number of Soviet Jews granted permission
to emigrate to Israel was 42 percent less last year
than in 1973.
According to the Dutch officials who deal with
Soviet citizens applying for emigration to Israel,
approximately 20,200 emigrants were processed dur-
ing 1974, down from 34,800 in 1973. The number of
persons processed by the Dutch dropped sharply from
the last quarter of 1973 to the first quarter of
1974, but since last: April has held steady at ap-
proximately 1,600 a month. An additional 800 Soviet
Jews emigrated directly to the US and other Western
countries last year.
The Dutch attribute the decline in emigration
partly to harassment by Soviet authorities and
partly to the growing indecision of potential ap-
plicants. The Soviets have recently increased the
bureaucratic red tape involved in exit applications,
although threats that applicants will lose their
jobs seem to have diminished. The Dutch see no
reason to believe that the present lower levels of
Jewish emigration will change. There has so far been
no information from the Soviet Union on what, if
any, impact developments concerning the US Trade Act
will have on Jewish emigration.
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Romania Seeking More US Machinery
Romanian officials say their country expects
to purchase several hundred million dollars worth
of US machinery and equipment through 1980. The
orders will depend, however, on continued favor-
able credit arrangements with the Export-Import
Bank.
Bucharest's shopping list includes petroleum
machinery over the next four years worth $300 mil-
lion and $100 million worth of heavy machinery in
the next few months. Agricultural and irrigation
equipment are also on the list.
The Romanian debt now totals more than $2.3
billion in hard currency. Because of higher export
prices, especially for petroleum products, Bucharest
will nevertheless be able to handle a larger debt.
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Yugoslavia To Expand Air Services
Belgrade is rapidly expanding its international
air service. The Yugoslavian airline will begin its
longest haul in April, when Australia is added to the
route network. Later this year, its first scheduled
service to Sub-Saharan Africa will get under way with
flights to Zambia. The Zambian service, which will
increase transportation available to Yugoslavian
technicians working in Africa, probably will be an
extension of its present route to Cairo.
Flights to Malta and Bangladesh are also sched-
uled to begin this year, and the groundwork is being
laid for air agreements with Canada, Pakistan, India,
South Korea, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, and possibly Ethiopia
and Cyprus. Service to the US has not materialized
because of ticketing problems, but Belgrade hopes to
solve these problems in time for operations in 1976.
The new international. services will probably use
Boeing 707s. Four already are in the fleet, and three
may be ordered this year. In addition, the airline
is considering acquiring wide-bodied aircraft for
its anticipated US and Canadian service. The new
long-range special performance Boeing 747 appears
to be the leading contender.
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Large Soviet Computer Fails Acceptance Tests
The State Committee for Science and Technology
has rejected the Soviet-built ES-1050 (RYAD-50) com-
puter because it failed to pass quality control tests.
Moscow has been counting on the ES-1050 to get
its planned nationwide data processing network off
the ground. If current design deficiencies are not
quickly corrected, the USSR may seek technological
help from Western manufacturers or perhaps place
substantial orders in the West for large data pro-
cessing computers.
The major problem with the computer reportedly
is over-heating of the components. The 1050 utilizes
type 137 ECL (emitter-coupled logic) integrated
circuits to achieve high-processing speeds. These
Soviet components consume relatively large amounts
of power that is dissipated as heat, a severe prob-
lem for any computer designer.
This problem could necessitate complete redesign
of the 1050's component layout and cooling system,
thereby delaying introduction of the computer for
several years. Similar problems may account for the
failure of the largest and fastest RYAD computer,
the ES-1060, to reach even the prototype stage.
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Some Perspective on US-USSR Commercial
Relations During I PT
Soviet-American commercial contacts expanded
again in 1974. More than 1,200 Soviet bureaucrats,
scientists, technicians, and skilled workers visited
the US for commercial purposes.
Some tentative conclusions about the Soviet
leadership's priorities in its pursuit of American
technology can be reached by looking at the organiza-
tional connections of the visitors. More than 30
Soviet government administrators with the rank of
deputy minister or higher visited the United States
for commercial purposes in 1.974. In addition to
the Ministry of Foreign Trade,organizations that
sent two or more such officials were:
Ministry of the Petroleum Industry
Ministry of the Machine Tool and Tool
Building Industry
Ministry of the Pulp and Paper Industry
Ministry of the Chemical Industry
Ministry of Civil Aviation
Ministry of Agriculture
State Committee for Construction Af-
fairs (Gosstroy)
State Planning Committee (Gosplan)
Major Soviet commercial delegations usually
consisted of a cross-section of the industry rep-
resented. For example, a chemical industry delega-
tion might be headed by a deputy minister of the
chemical industry and be accompanied by some or all
of the following officials: a deputy chairman of the
State Planning Committee (responsible for chemical
industry planning); a representative from Soyuzkhimeksport,
the Foreign Trade Ministry's association for the
export and import of chemical products; an employee
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of the Scientific Research Institute of the Chemical
Industry; the director of a chemical combine; a
section head from the State Committee for Science
and Technology; an editor of the official journal
of the chemical industry; and a sector chief from the
CPSU Central Committee's Chemical Industry Depart-
ment. Any representative of the party apparatus
invariably identified himself as an employee of a
government ministry.
Another way of measuring Soviet commercial
priorities is to group visitors according to the in-
dustry they represent. Included in the following
approximate figures are a mixture of government of-
ficials, institute members, factory directors, party
apparatchiks and workers from the Foreign Trade
Ministry:
Automotive industry (including
54 trainees at US companies)
92
Construction industry (in-
53
dustrial,
stallation
rural, housing, in-
work, etc.)
Aviation
45
Petroleum and petrochemical
40
industries
Food industry
40
Maritime affairs
39
Machine tool and tool building
33
industry
Chemical industry
32
Nonferrous metallurgy (precious
metals, zinc, lead, etc.)
30
Agriculture
28
"Machine Building" (road, live-
26
stock and fodder, agricultural,
light industry, etc.)
Ferrous metallurgy (iron and steel)
24
Electrical equipment
23
Radio, TV and cinematography
22
Geology
16
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Both quantitative yardsticks point to the same
conclusion: the Soviet construction, aviation,
petroleum, automotive, machine tool, and chemical
industries were the most deeply involved in business
with US firms during 1974. Close behind came the
food and agricultural bureaucracies. Presumably
those are the industries Moscow believes have the
most to gain by technological exchange with the US.
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Confidential
Confidential
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