(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00827A001000060008-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 5, 2000
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: September 27, 1967
• Content Type: BRIEF

ApprovedwFor Release 2001, 4./01: CIA-RGhP79T00827A001000060
27 September 1967
1. The Armed Services Committee of the House(Chair-
man Rivers) has established a special subcommittee under
Rep. Porter Hardy (hereinafter Hardy Subcom) "to conduct
a full and thorough inquiry into... the status of plans,
including contingency plans, for achieving a military
victory in Southeast Asia, the ability of our armed for-
ces to simultaneously meet present commitments in SEA, as
well as treaty obligations, including the availability of
military equipment and present and projected force levels.
....In addition, the subcommittee will inform itself with
respect to projected time estimates for achieving a mili-
tary victory in SEA...and the number of military personnel
required to achieve either a military victory or the cessa-
tion of hostilities, and the establishment of a viable
government in South Vietnam.
2. DCI has been asked to testify at 0930 Monday,
9 October, on the existing and potential threats in
Southeast Asia which might involve U.S. commitments,
treaties, or security interests. The attached outline
shows the ground DCI proposes to cover in his briefing.
His terms of reference will of course be foreign--not
U.S.--capabilities, intentions, objectives, etc., estab-
lishing a background for the Hardy subcom inquiry, which
will be addressed primarily to DOD and State.
3. Proposed briefing time is two hours, or about
120 pages of our standard briefing format. To process
a package of this size, and allow any time for coordina-
tion and review of the draft before the book goes to
DCI, the bulk of the contributions must reach Presentation
Staff at opening of business Friday Sept. 29. Up to a
quarter of the book can come in as late as Sunday evening
(about 7 p.m.), but Production Assistant should notify
me Friday morning so that everybody doesn't decide his
piece is in the late 25%. The complete book will be
available for review in printed form, multiple copies,
at opening of business Wednesday 10/4, necessary revisions
will be made overnight, and the package will go to DCI in
the course of the forenoon Thursday, 5 October, for his
review, revision, and assimilation.
4. Classification is limited to TOP SECRET, but as
.in case of NIE s make use of Code Word and of er sensi-
tive information as long as you don't use details and facts
which obviously could only have come from such sensitive
sources and methods.
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 Approve4For Release 2001103/p4: CIA-Ri P79T00827AO01000060008-3
5. For each country where such information is per-
tinent, work in extent of U.S. troop presence, U.S. treaty
and other commitments. Outside Vietnam, thrust of Hardy
subcom's interest is obviously degree of threats to that
country which might involve U.S.
6. This briefing is not a primer, but sitrep and
prospects at a relatively high level of sophistication:
All but two of the subcommittee members are also members
of the Special CIA Subcommittee; Chairman Rivers and the
ranking minority member, Congressman Bates, will be sitting
in as ex officio members* and it should be fairly obvious
that the subcommittee will be looking for information and
judgments which will form a foundation for questioning
subsequent witnesses--i.e., this has all the earmarks of
a delicate situation. 25X1A
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 Approvedr Release 2001/0~T0 :`CIA-RE9T00827A001000060008-3
Outline, Hardy Subcom Briefing 9 October
(Suggested time references are in minutes; one page of our
I.
II.
~de
y
(,
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a crd-
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standard NSC format, with hanging indents and good
margins, is about one minute delivery time.)
Introduction and Terms of Reference (3:00)
(S/Pres drafting,
Communist China is logical starting point as major
hostile power in FE, with nuke capability, large
conventional forces, massive manpower, and record
of unwavering hostility toward U.S. and Free World.
A. Limitations are obsolescence of conventional
military forces, and domestic turmoil.
---Nature and capabilities of cony. mil forces. (4:00)
---Chaos of Cult. Rev makes demands on Army, kz (6:00)
hampers transp/communications, disrupts industry
and agriculture. Raises some question of loyalty
of mil to Mao/Lin. (follow lines of recent Mahon
briefing---chaos, moderation, warlordism? Whoever
wins, no less hostile to U.S.)
B. Advanced weapons. ChiComs nuke power on (10-15:00)
own by giving it overriding priority since end
of Sov Aid in 1960.
1. Brief review of tests, present level of nuclear
capabilit*.
2. Delivery systems, MRBM--radius of effectiveness..
ICBM estilfmate. Air delivery. G-class sub,
missile boats.
3. Aircraft: MIG-19, possibility of MIG-21 and
BADGER production.
4. Other advanced hardware: SAM and AAM status.
C. ChiCom Policy: What determines Peking policy--(10-12:00)
xenophobia, Middle Kingdom. tradition, resentment
of US FE presence, search for rice bowl, opposition
to co-existence, irrationality aspects?
1. Status and evaluation of Sino-Soviet dispute.
2. Interaction of Sino-Soviet dispute and Vietnam
War.
3. Relative Chinese and Soviet support of Vietnam.
4. Effect of Vietnam war and Sino-Soviet rivalry (3:00)
there on Soviet-U.S. relations. (S/Pres will
provide from Huizenga paper previously used by
DCI in briefing.)
5. ChiCom presence in DRV. Relations with, influence
over DRV. (3:00)
.j6. Circumstances we believe would bring various (4:00)
higher levels of ChiCom intervention. Include
border air defense sensitivity, and as brief ana-
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US--e.g., state of civil defense preparations.
R.
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Hardy Subcom outline -2-
E. Other Chicom relations: (in each case, use
C iCom policy/objectives, level of ChiCom
threat as point of departure, then give
situation within country, problems, what they
seek from US, stability, insurgency, policy
on Vietnam, etc., as pertinent.)
1. Laos--and how the war is going. Souvanna (6-7:00)
Phouma concerns re Ho Chi Minh trail,
barrier suggestions, etc. DRV mil presence.
Prospects, military, international/political.
2. Thailand--policy re SEATO and own national
secur y, mil cooperation re Vietnam, counter-
insurgency picture. (5:00)
3. Cambodia--Shnouk's objectives, tactics, policy.
Mention of Free Khmer/Tha:L/SVN problems on bor-
der, own internal problems with leftists. His
probable attitude of NVN/VC use of territory.
Actual extent of NVN/VC use of Cambodian terr.
(Remember, TS covers RDF and airborne recce so
this can be factual.) (5:00)
4. If ChiComs decided on general SEA offensive, what
are their military capabilities for advance into
Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, Burma? What advance
warning might we get? (We had this in briefing
earlier this year; will try to attach copy.)
(4:00)
5. Indonesia Relations with China, as peg for
analysis of domestic situation, economy, debt,
outlook for international aid requirements.(4-5:00)
6. British and Hong Kong(include mention of sensitivity
on U.S. R&R use.) (3:00)
7. Burma--and complicated insurgency problem. (3:00)
8. India (3:00) (strictly in relation to ChiComs)
9. Pakistan (Paks/ChiComs/US and SEATO) (5:00)
10. Japan - (3:00)
11. Taiwan Straits situation, ChiNat intentions/capa-
bilities/problems, expectations of U.S. support (5:00
12. Sum up with analysis of possible effectiveness
throughout area of MRBM nuclear blackmail. (2:00
III. Other Asian Communists
A. Briefly, North/South Korea. Where do North Koreans
stand on Vietnam, in Sino-Soviet dispute? What are
they up to in DMZa and with infiltrations? (5:00)
B. North Vietnam. 15-20 minutes. What we know of
their attitude toward negotiations. Mil. Posture.
1W[ What is nature of DRV economy?(don't express
this directly in terms of Rolling 7Thunder.) What
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Hardy Subcom outline -3-
Avoiding any figures which are still in
what's enemy OB, KIA rate,
recruitment rate, logistical requirements
outcountry to keep fighting going
What is current strategy--Giap article if useful,
death 'of Nguyen Chi Thanh, extent of DRYxd?rmctz
PAVN direct command over NFLSV/VC/fronts in SVN,
increase in attacks on pacification teams.
South Vietnam--present role and effectiveness Of
ARVN, progress political stability.
i.e., this is logically headed North
shVietnam where
it stands in outline, but it *uunm
deadpan factual summation of the entire Vietnam
situation North and South.
If there are any questions on content, approach, etc.,
call
contributors please
25X1A
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