DEAR(Sanitized)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00827A000800040010-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 53
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 28, 2000
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: December 24, 1966
• Content Type: LETTER

25X1A
25X1A
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OLIJX:
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24 couber leecp
The Honorable -John K. Cosgrove
Assistant Director
Office of ,Umergency Planning-
Washington? D. C. 20504
Dear Mr. CeSgrOVO:
In response to your letter of 5 December 1966 regardsu-z
1;he need for brieline;s at your regional reetisgs, I will be
happy to provide qualified briefers, although X must requost
that their travel and accoyaodatlon be funded by your office.
Unfortunately., has other commitments
and cannot be made avairLahte a; all et your nesting; he
can, boWevcr, address the Seattle and Los Angeles meetings
On April 18 and 20.
has been
January,
has been
that you
both
an authority on Far Eastern affairs,
elected for the Houston meeticz on the 19th of.
and ? a senior briefing officer
scheduled for your Charleston meeting. am sure
and your reiesa/ reservists will be pleased with
I am sure that your ellorts to avoid publicity for the
briefings will again be successful. The subject matter, as
before, will be unclassified.
Sincerely yours,
JAL R. J. Sm1v.1-z
R. J. Smith
Deputy Director for Intelligeace
Distribution:
Original and 1 - Addressee
1 - 0/DDI Chrono
1 - Exec, Chrono
1 - OEP File w/basic
ilt?86
(L:Ti,:ra'm rind
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8320 Dec. 1966 2 I,
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STATINTL
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TRANSMITTAL SLIP
DATE
TO:
ROOM NO. I BUILDING
'AT'S'e3
REMARKS:
?
FROM:
/ de-(2--"------
ROOM NO.
: ILDING
EXTENSION
FORM NO. I
1 FEB 55
REPLACES FORM 36-8
WHICH MAY BE USED.
(47)
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U S. S. R.
MONGOLIA
The Far East
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NAMES AND BOUNDARY REPRESENTATION
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NAMES AND BOUNDARY REPRESENTATION
ARE NOT NECESSARILY AUTHORITATIVE
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5
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East of India
Ten States
South of China
Surma, Thailand, Cambodia Laos, North
Vietnam, South Vietnam Malaysia,
Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam,
If you wish Australia and New Zealand
sake It a down.
VS involvement
TIMM
A. Rather than talk about the conduct and status I'm
going to basics. I think this will help you read the war
more effectively.
a. $t*. of O. Vietnam (Okla) Population 17 million,
North Vietnam sanie else. 16 million. Vietnamese ancient
L-people in WU whose history goes back more than 2000 years.
Over 1000 year' held by China. Glorious Vietnam
ry of defeat of SUblal Shan in 1260.
D. Portuguese and French came In late 16th century.
First Christian mission at On Nang in 1615. Now known for
its large American base
N. Japaneee occupation 1940.
Mb Chi Minn. French trained dentist became
guerrila leader 1945. Vietminh.Independence movement set
up. Bao.Dni, Jap.sponsored, thrown out.
F. French War 1045.1954, Note difference with war today.
1. French suffered serious military defeats.
We have not.
2, French intended to maintain political control.
We do not.
3, In Paris no will to fight. We have.
4. France had 55,000 Frenchmen plus 120,000 Foreign
gionaries and Africans. We have 350,000 Americans committed.
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Ce ee Fire 64 in Paris created two Vietnams.
I. No in North, IMO pal in South Japanese puppet
(not rejected)
2. North committed to conquest of South from start.
II Before we pick up the present War a bit on ethnic problems.
A. The centuries of history and pre.history have left
great devielveness on population.
B. Vilatalmeee. Chinese, Indonesians, Omer, Laos,
Mentenarde.
C. Religion. Buddhists 50.60%, only 20% devout and
practicing, Catholic 10%, Confuslanism, floists, Animists,
Ca* Dal other local sects. Buddhists in SVN only united in
1964. Wasted in STN sine* 6th cent. 114
D. Catholics hated as often ruling minority, Diem
belonged to this hated and respected minority.
lIZ. ev.lopent of Communist Driv? in Vietnam
A. Almost as soon as Geneva Agreement signed No Chi
Minh began effort against South.
B. In 55 Sao Dal removed Bleu installed.
C. Terrorist campaign in South begun. 90,000 moved
North, 1,000 moved South. *Any of the 90,000 trained and
returned South as Viet Cong between 56.59.
P. In 59 PR sent inspection teas south to view progress
of campaign. As result in '60 National Liberation Front
became active. In Feb '61 Hanoi broadcast manifesto of National
Liberation front. It clearly creature of Hanoi and is today.
Often alfferences of opinion between Newel and field but
this normal.
I. In '62 Northern. (ethnic Northerners) began to move
South in numbers.
F. Six Communist re ions In South Vietnam were created,
Now nine, wa s PYRK.Aq(Ali r 0 a. an Y11011.
All tightly organised WATTEVNY
southern in origin. Out the top military brass 4,3,2 star
generals are largely JIPH. General Nguyen Chi fhanh runs war
.2
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(Re next to den. Olap.) Under him XVI Generals Ttan Van Ita
and Itan Do. All seamed into Worth, radio directed from
north, arms and medicine supplied from north by land and sea.
VC 80,000
MT 45,000
Paramilitary
160,000
labsboo
Communist Losses
MOOPONOWISPirgarlIMOMPIMMIPM. 1905
Killed 16,800 36,000
Captured 4,000 6,000
Deserted 1,900 8,800
Allied
Vietnam
320,000
Paramilitary
395,000
US
350,000
free World
of which
50,000
44,000 Korean
4,000 Australian
2,000 Philippines
715,000
350,000
50 000
mis7uoro
1966(9 MO) Current rate of
40,000 Total desertion nearly 50
92,000 per day. Over half
6,000 are military.
14,000
Total 138 losses to Nov 5, 466 5623
Week ending 5 Nov VD 127 killed, 605 wounded. inemy . 806 killed
/99 captured,
Capabilities of Commies
1 Korth Vietnam 400,000 army. Could infiltrate and
replace 75.100,000 annually.
2. VC can replace at same rate annually.
3. Seeds thru Laos south into eV. 400 Tenn daily 100
tons in rainy season. More than enough.
4. Despite losses there are more Commie troops in 8VN
today than at any time in past.
China Threat
Introduction
The fourth detonation of a nuolear device by China some
three weeks ago has once again focused attention on China.
Peet that Peking loudly advertised that it also had a delivery
40.3
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system invited speculation and aimed at promoting fear.
Peking deliverately placed it in context of Vietnam war.
What is true picture about the Chinese threat to VS and
to SBA.
Vietnam involvement
Aggressive War policy and propaganda. Opt cautious
erence involvement with VS.
b. 25,000.40000 Chinese maitary (engineers and anti.
aircraft divisions) in FYN. Building two airfields now.
0. 011itary equipment largely smaller combat type, and
anti.aircraft? guns. Some vehicles and medical supplies.
2. China's Bilitaty lAtablishment
A,__IAT in neighborhood 21 million. Substandard of WWII
ype7w-Wimited mobility fire power Soviet design.
b. Air Force 150,000 men. Total Aircraft 2500. Of these
ooly"WrVirionably modern. 300.1I0 19, 30 MIO 21,
250 . IL 28 (700 mile range). Chinese are building MI6 19
possibly 20 per month. Lack *I! weather or night capability.
No long range bombers. Lack modern ground control. Some
14 operational 41,11 mites.
a. If 75,000. Largest ship 4 old Soviet destroyers.
30 submarines only one 0 class sub which might launch
ballestic missile. 'OTherwise some motor torpedo boats
And two guided missile patrol boats.
Mo major surface units No modern minesweepers. No
aircraft carriers.
d. Adce....mtAre ?
Four nuclear devices set off 16 Oct 64 .. 24 I% 24
MAY 65 ft.,. 56 WT, 9 My 68 250 IT, 28 Oct 60 .. Lees
than 200
First two, V 235 ? V 238. Third and probably Fourth g 235
and V 238 with 'lithium 6 to produce some therm nuclear
reaction, no plutonium. Fourth shot fired *bout 350.400
miles by missile of unknown accuracy. If missile is
comparable to Soviet NOON it Gould carry 2500 lb. war head.
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o. Guided Missiles program for ten years. Two ranges
operiTOWirlillart003. Chinese working on 300.400
miles missile (used in 4th shot) also on 1000 miles (MM.
May be ready in 87 or 03. We have no evidence of work on
IC82. V* think it must in any event be 5 yrs. off. No
evidence of long range bomber.
ignificant work on Space vehicles known to us.
nEW.ALMAgol
Short range mtssile is threat.
VIO's *nd IL 28. Bulk of Chinese air forces aboue BEA.
Army has 500,000 above BRA.
Above Korea 400,000 troop.
Opposite Taiwan 1500000.
Opposite India 75,000
4. Economy. Never recovered from set back of 59.61
Agriculture needs fertilizers and modern seeds.
Population 750 million with 15 million increase annutly.
C. Imported 5.8 tallies tons food annually since 80.
4, Coot about $400 million annually.
e. China now back where it vas in SS.
5. Internal
a. In past year in turmoil. Populace unhappy. Peasants
apathetic. Professionals attacked by regime.
b. Paver struggle for months possibly since Rev 65 when
Mho vanished until late March.
c. lbcperts not agreed what is going on. Obvious Lin
Plao now second. Liu Shao.Ohl 8th or less. What next or
whore this ends is not indicated. Red Guard ominous
development for country.
SO bileal
Chinese policy has brought furstration and failure-.
(a) Ghanelp (b) Algeria, (a) Indonesia, (d) Bino.8oviet
Dispute.
2. Soviet Union in Vietnam
1. Vino?Boviet conflict often makes difficult to get
Soviet aid into *VN. Bino.Boviet conflict continues unabated.
2* Soviet have given SAM sites about 140.
3. 00Viete give 110 21 some IL 28 and heavy equipment.
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4. Soviets supply 95% of PCI,.
5. Soviets have 1500 instructors there for SAM training.
Also train NVN in USSR.
6, Soviets give public propaganda support but privately
'slab negotiated settlement,
I. Total Commie economic aid to NYS before 1965 about
one billion dollars,
Military aid in 1985 about 5O million in 1988 much
higher.
0 Observations on COrrent Situation
Waits 1 VW
ac los of hitting concentrations
"spoiling operations" resulting in heavy enemy losses.
b? VC have lost much of their initiate aura of success
lost. The number of attacks down. We choose the
time and place.
lc. Example in early November in TO Ninh area on
Cambodian border in six days VE forces killed and
counted 853 and 9 captured. U8 losses 85 killed 340
wounded. Also captured regimental command post 500,000
lb. rice food, ammo, small arms and ClitSmore mine
factory and intelligence documents. *inflict here
continuing. Major VS Commitment.
d. In DEE Commies have heavily infiltrated. We know
full XV Army division 9200 has moved in recent months.
We also have killed 2000 in this area. Drive slowed
here too. .
e. In recent northern action (Irving &Thayer) 10
days Commie MIA 2930, POW 1996, Allied 110 MIA.
f. Isolated incidents of terrorism very high now.
Suggests this a substitute for heavier attacks.
S. Our CA figure compared with known VC figure way down.
We know their medical facilities primitive so heavy
losses of wounded also inevitable. any VC ill. few
adequately innoculated.
h. Over half of population now responsive to Saigon.
This considerable improvement. 'larder for VC to live
off land and get shelter.
1 tical
a. Under Diem situation increasingly hopeless
confrontation with Buddhists. Efforts in Not 60,
Jeb. 61 to remove him. Finally in Nov 63 he was
killed.
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b. Chaotic internal convulsions lead by Buddhists.
NI itary distatorship not accepted by people.
c. Elections 11 Sept 1960 better than expected.
80% registered voters did vote 117 seats split into
four or more major groups. Nads maneuvering
between North and South elements Constituent
Assembly now shaking down. Hopeful that real
civilian government will develop. Still grave
divisive problems.
d. Buddhists now split into Conservatives and
Militants. Development for the time favors the
government.
e. Refugees from TV overrun areas number about
000,000 since Jan 1966. These in camps and
resettled. Major government problem.
n
st. Recent report on Hanoi reveals people relatively
relaxed. Nb serioue food shortages. "oral() is
high, They and government still convinced they
will win war. Generals, No Chi Minh, Tan Bong
rest of high command not divided.
b. About 300,000 have been evecuated 300,000 remain
and 400,000 still in suburbs of Hanoi.
c. Bombing has destroyed 60% of chief bulk POL
storage. Haiphong facilities 90% destroyed. Enough
VOL coming in barrells -and small containers by sea.
EspeoLsli by smill-Sowist tankers. Have enough
VOL. Need 16,000 tons monthly. This they are
getting.
d. Of five rail lines from China two are
interdicted for thru service.
o. Heavy road interdiction hampers severely
traftio?of military supplies Chinese troops help
keeping rail and road service7-Mat 20% rail
bridges damaged. ,
fi Major power plants severely damage one modern
plant, out for at least one year supplies 20.25
percent of Hanol.Haophong electricity.
g. Exports dawn 50%. Shipping way down grain harvests
down sharply.
Ii. allitary establishment in NTH relatively intact.
L. Aircraft 50 MIG 17.19, 18.410 21, 8.0/1, 28
SAX sites over 140. In July and August fired 395
got 9 aircraft 3 droves. About 9% effective.
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Tata.tatir...liseigLial_part of war picture.
Cambodia
a. Sihanouk wishes to remain in control. Wishes
to be on right side.
b. Sihanouk has long been careful to maintain
good relations with China.
o. Sihanouk has tried to negotiate a friendly
relationship with fist Cong.
d. Sihanouk is not a really witting collaborator
of the Viet Cong. Re cannot patrol his borders
(GOO miles with South Viet NW so they use him
as a sanctuary, as a food markets as a route. We
know what is going on.
OS
1. As csabodia Laos is largely a route for supplies
and troops into fist Nam.
2. We are well informed as to what moves thru.
We interdict and destroy a large part of what moves.
3. Government under Prince Souvanna neutral with
Western bias.
4. 1400 political is marking time, Whatever
ns in Vietnam will decide what happen in Laos.
1. Commies can maintain and increase present war
effort in next half dozen months even if they cannot
match IIS commitments.
2. SVII and U$ and allies *an maintain heavy
pressure on Commies in South and slowly rebuild STN.
3. Commies have lost initiative. Nave lost much
grassroot support in SYN.
4. Commie, will to continue will depend largely
a)
Continuing damaging pressure by US
b Commie assessment of US will to continue full war.
c Evolution of political structure in SVN
Will it succeed. Will villages be rehabilited.
5. Unlikely that any likely US action# military
or otherwise will persuade Commie to throw in the
sponge withiniest several months.
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A few observations on increasingly
important are*.
1. Thailand is in best shape of $S Asia to
withstand internal and external throats.
2. Fundamentally economic well.being. a%
annual growth.
3. few anti-Western biases,
4. Ruled by military in generally effective
manner.
PM Thanon has been in power three years.
711 Thenat. Vol) PS Praphat is strongest man in govt.
5. Government has not moved toward political
form and lacks support in the countryside.
92,21191211911ERttet
1 In Northeast there Is insurgency. We think
e more than 1000 active hardcore.
2. These in part China and North Vietnam trained.
Bolding local meetings in villages. Resort to
tdrrorism.
B. Bangkok moving ahead with counter.insurgency
art. VS playing key role in promoting this effort.
VS RelatIons with Thailand
1* As VS in putting more forces into Thailand
ensions in relations with Bangkok developing.
2. VS building bases for use as required. Some
30 000 Americans now there.
3. 'Shona* wants mutual defense agreement. Fears
that SRAM treaty and 1902 Ihkst*Thanat accord not
enough.
Indonesia Most populous country of OMA
?
* Tears ago (1 Oct 03) Commie country of SSA
Suharto took over. Na and several generals
r in country. Shllk and Sultan ultimately take
rm.
2. Sukarno unlikely to come back. Still has
hawing. In Central and last Java. The National
strong here still supports Sukarno.
Sukarno deprived of presidency for life. Commie
party banned..Nlecti9ns to be held by Jul 684
polltiolf4 Xrailaa nOW 10 progress.
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4.Rconoor_ciron.
a) Chiffird-IffritT657-WITIEFWEI '66 prices
increased six hundred percent.
b) xports are declining.
c) Transportation gravely deteriorated.
d) Indonesia's foreign debt $2.7 billion. Ras
bo foreign reserves.
e) INF helping by setting up economic
stabilization plan.
f) Paris meeting Dec *88 to work out d toils.
Also $180 million loan proposed.
5, FOrOifFi Policy.
1, Non.Aligmment. Left pro...Peking,
2. Relations with USSR correct but not cordial.
1O debt renegotiation,
R. Ralaysia confrontation ended August '66.
4. Relations with SS and Western Nations greatly
roved.
5. In late Sept '88 Indonesia returned to UN.
8, Pro eats
1. Army will continue to hold power.
2. Slow economio improvement,
5. Suharto thinks it will take ten years.
swe
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A. Conflict of interest between 08 and China not likely
to diminsh apprecibly over next.Aes*de.
4-441 '*4-14k' ? e
China leadership all in late '80o Mao 72 Liu Shim Lhi
Tong With-Ping third in line. All militant Chou En-lai
more moderate not in line. Possibly T'no Chu head of
Centrod.Routh Bureau of Party (58) and Lo Jui-Ching.
Tice.minister of National 'Defense coming up.
Chinese growth BNP 3.4% in years ahead. Agriculture
not likely to grow sore than 2% the rate of population
growth,
By 1970 China will have significant nuclear weapon
capabilities, Will also have medium range missiles and
subsonic bombers.
This capability will still not constitute serious
threat to US but can be used to blackmail Asian states.
ird atomic test expected soon. First tower, second
drop. MRIN expected operational within next year.
All Chinese current capability based on Soviet
assistance in late 1950s.
Lop Nor proving ground in northwest Chins. Lanchou
produces fissionable material. Wizen has large reactor
now under conStruction. Finished in 1970. Koko Nor
probably also has plant for nuclear weapons,
No modern delivery system 11,28 too small (in year or
two yrs) and * few old 039 bomber types all this is
no, available.
We know of no Chinese ICRR work now. We thus say it
would take nearly 10 years to develop.
China has one misoile submarine with 350 mile range.
China ha0 some SAN equipment from Russia.
China has 20 surface to sir sites.
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China has 2.3 million arm . Severely limited in fire-
power and mo ty. t substandard WWII force.
Air force 1900 with 270 jet light bomber. Mostly MIO
16 and 17 (10 1.84 and 86). About 800 1I049 and 30
M14.-21.
Recently China began 110.19 (F.100) production. It
has in pant 18 months produced over 200 at Mukdeu (now
ShearseSt Manchuria.
Sive report that this plant is turning out about 20
aircraft Per month,
.Savy very weak and antiquated.
Al
Never recovered from set beck of 1959.61. Real problem
is stagnatiop in agriculture.)W4
With 15
,
ith 11=1 net increase per year, terrible problem
(750,000,000). Since 1960 China has imported 5-6
million tons Annually, Average Apt annual $400 million.
Cott .04.464?.? 71241) 31.040,114-Pwit
Sirth control wileonlylhave significant Cf feet many
years hence.
Sy 1966 China was back industriany where it had been
La 1958,
China almost self.sufficient in oil.
China trade in recent years increasingly with free
world (now 2/3). In '59 trade with USSR $2 billion,
in '65 about $450 million. Japan now chief trading
partner.
China may have to come to grips with its economic
*bloom at expense of its military program.
Ida discontent on basis of its economic
Peasants sullen apathetic. Professional
attached by regime for lack of dedicated
Army morale and discipline however good,
tinder box there.
problems.
people bitterly
commitment.
but there is
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ftlf. IT. China Foreign Policy
A. Reverses more than successes.
Failure in (Mane.
? Failure in Indonesian coup attempt.
Failure in Algeria.
Above all Nino-Moviet dispute
Seises question of validity of Sino-Soviet mutual
defense treaty,
policy now revels around.
Heavily committed but act circumspectly.
Mao gays "people" do not need direct military help
in such a war,
w much military equipment to North Vietnam.
*40#D
Nowja-ND Chinese troops of non -combat
variety in N. Vietnam. These engineer and logistics
troops to keep roads open to China.
Chi aPPosers not to want conflict with UM at this time
but Say U0 will attack them.
Mere half Chinese 120 fighters within 300 miles of
southern border. View these border states as natural
rice bowls for China.
Thailand next Chinese target. Openly announced.
Thais sot up In Peking as leaders of fronts. There is
significant outbreak of terrorism in northeastern
Thailand.
Chinese Commies work thru North Vietnamese.
About 10,000 North Vietnamese in Laos.
re IL Vietnamese coming and stiffening local
thet Lao,
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Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T00827A000800040010-5
Chinese strong in Phong Lily area bordering on
China. Building roads into area.
Despite all this the Geneva agreements permit
Chinese Commies to keep representatives in Vietnam
as advance intelligence officers.
PM Souvanna now ready to fight the Commies.
Cambodia's Oihanonk has decided Commies will win in
BEA and that he must accommodate to them.
Chinese exploiting him by supplying arms and
instructors,
Cambodia as sate haven to attack S. Vietnam.
avite 641, imetzif eemst.,
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*
**CHIN ESE COMMUN 1ST VIP'S
CAS RANKED FROM 1958 TO START
OF CULTURAL REVOLUTION'
* INNER CIRCLE OF POLITBURO
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SUNG .LEN-CU'IUNG
GOVERNMENT
ORGAN IZATION
(STATE COUNCIL)
Purged
VICE PREMIERS
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NATIONAL PETROLEUM COUNCIL
COMMITTEE ON
EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS
FOR THE PETROLEUM INDUSTRY (1965)
CHAIRMAN
A. L. Nickerson
Chairman of the Board
Socony Mobil Oil Company, Inc.
GOVERNMENT CO-CHAIRMAN SECRETARY
John Ricca
Deputy Director
Office of Oil and Gas
U.S. Department of the Interior
Vincent M. Brown
Secretary-Treasurer
National Petroleum Council
Jack H. Abernathy, President
Mid-Continent Oil & Gas Association
Reid Brazell, President
Leonard Refineries, Inc.
Bruce K. Brown
El Dorado, Arkansas
M. V. Burlingame
Executive Vice President
Nntnral Gag Pipeline Company
of America
R. G. Follis
Chairman of the Board
Standard Oil Company of California
P. N. Gammelgard, President
National Petroleum Refiners
Association
M. L. Haider
Chairman of the Board
Standard Oil Company (N.J.)
Fred L. Hartley, President
Union Oil Company of California
W. W. Keeler
Bartlesville, Oklahoma
H. M. McClure, Jr., President
McClure Oil Company
L. F. McCollum
Chairman of the Board
Continental Oil Company
J. Howard Marshall, President
Union Texas Petroleum Division
Allied Chemical Corporation
J. R. Parten
Houston, Texas
J. Howard Rambin, Jr.
Chairman of the Board
Texaco Inc.
Charles E. Spahr, President
The Standard Oil Company (Ohio)
H. A. True, Jr., President
True Oil Company
J. Ed Warren
New York, New York
SUBCOMMITTEE
FOR PREPARATION OF
EPGA OPERATING MANUALS
CHAIRMAN
Theodore W. Nelson
Senior Vice President
Socony Mobil Oil Company, Inc.
GOVERNMENT CO-CHAIRMAN SECRETARY
John Ricca
Deputy Director
Office of Oil and Gas
U.S. Department of the Interior
Vincent M. Brown
Secretary-Treasurer
National Petroleum Council
John S. Bell, Manager
East Texas Division
Production Department
Humble Oil & Refining Company
Henry G. Corey, Jr., Manager
Coordinating & Planning Department
Continental Oil Company
Luke W. Finlay, Manager
Government Relations Department
Standard Oil Company (N.J.)
E. Howard Fisher
Vice President in Charge of
Gas Operations
Pacific Gas & Electric Company
W. T. Grummer
Executive Financial Representative
Gulf Oil Corporation
W. H. Klarquist
General Manager of Purchasing
Standard Oil Company of California
E. W. Lang, Manager
Marketing Planning Department
Cities Service Oil Company
Frank C. Perry
Transportation Department
The Atlantic Refining Company
L. D. Phillips, Manager
Employee Relations Department
Phillips Petroleum Company
Ray Powell, General Manager
Refining Department
Texaco Inc.
Emmett A. Vaughey
Vaughey and Vaughey
E. H. Wilder, Manager
Communications Department
Sun Oil Company
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9-01?00170008000V/Z80016/dC1U-VI3 : 6Z/80/000Z eseelet1 JOd PeA0AdV
What is the
EM I-4111G 1-4]NCY P 1-4]TROLI-4]UM
and
GAS ADMINISTRATION
Partners in Defense
Prepared by the
National Petroleum Council
Washington, D.C. 20006
Reprinted by
Office of the Secretary of the Army
Office of Civil Defense
April 1966
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Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T00827A000800040010-5
Foreword
1
What Kind of Emergency Do We Face?
2
Why \lake Plns
3
What Baste Have Been Made?
3
How Would the National Plan. Work?
3
Would the Government Take Over Industry?
5
Who Would Run the Show?.
5
How Would the Show Be R.an.,'
6
Staffing of the Ericrgcncv PQlroielni 'L-116
6
How Would EFT; A Work?
8
Would LPG.% au d ',The Industry Respond to a NucLta Attack? .
10
What Progress Has Been Made En EPG V' .
12
What Should Oil and Gas Cpmpardes Do Now to Prepare for National Emergencies?
14
Conclusion . . .
_ - 16
List of Exhibit!,
17
B.tb:lograpily . _
24
A
4t2
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9-01?00170008000V/Z80016/dC1U-VI3 : 6Z/80/000Z eseelet1 JOd PeA0AdV
FOREWORD
Despite our nation's commitment to world peace, we could be attacked.
Would we be attacked with "The Bomb"? No one can answer that
question; but if we were, casualties and damage to facilities could be
staggering.
In the event of a nuclear war, weapons many million times more
powerful than conventional bombs would be loosed on the United States.
Blast effects would be felt several miles from. the point of each nuclear
explosion. Fallout could be significant hundreds of miles away. Even
with full-scale civil defense measures, between 25 and 50 million fatalities
could occur in the United States if a major nuclear attack were to take
place.
In spite of the prospect of such awesome damage, a majority of U.S.
citizens could survive a nuclear attack. An important part of the petro-
leum industry?which now supplies three-fourths of the nation's energy?
could resume effective operations following an attack if adequate pre-
cautions are taken now.
National defense is the responsibility of our government. However, it is
the cooperative job of both government and industry to plan in advance
for any degree of emergency, from a relatively limited conflict, such as
the Korean conflict, to an all out nuclear war. In the latter event, the first
job would be to pick up the pieces and get the industry's machinery back
into running order, a task which has never had to be contemplated before
in the United States.
As Secretary of the Interior Stewart L. Udall has said on several
occasions, the oil and gas industry has always taken great initiative in
meeting production goals in national emergencies. "We do not anticipate
war," Mr. Udall asserts, "but if an attack should conic. whatev Cr
happens afterward will depend largely on the kind of preparations which
have been made prior to the attack." He goes on to say that companies
"must direct their imagination and energy now to preparing adequate
civil defense plans and taking those actions which will insure survival from
attack and restoration of company operations in a post-attack period."
Considerable analysis has been made of the actions individual com-
panies should take in preparation for an emergency, and several major
HE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY
-0
0
CD
In
-
In carrying out its job of supplying three-fourths of the nation's -n
energy needs, the? oil and gas industry has grown to a tremendous 739s
size. It employs over 1,200,000 people It drills over 40,000 m
wells a year. It produces over 9,000,000 barrels of crude oil and 17.n4
natural gas liquids and 43 billion cubic feet of natural gas a day.
c3
It transports crude oil, natural gas, and products through 900,000 o
miles of pipelines. It manufactures fuels, lubricants, and many other 03
useful products in 300 refineries located in 40 states. It provides the 0
raw materials for nearly 70% of all synthetic organic chemicals man- 0
ufactured in the United States. Its products are distributed by 30,000
individual distributors and marketed by 200,000 service station op-
erators. Every day, it provides the United States with over 11,000,-
0
CD
000 barrels?nearly half a billion gallons?of fuels to power our gs
0.
industrial society.
co
studies have been completed on this subject. The elements of companyg
ompraPpry planning
set forth in th,-cnn,l?ling section of this booklet,8
beginning on page 14. 0
The principal focus of this booklet, however, is on the cooperative41
pre-emergency planning steps under way by government and industry to
back up the efforts that individual companies make on their own.
The booklet is designed to answer such questions as: "What kind of
emergency do we face?" . . . "What is likely to happen?" . . . "What
plans are being made to assure supplies of oil and gas in time of an
emergency?" . . . "Who will run the show and how will it be run?" . . .
"What part can I and my company play in emergency preparations?"
1
000800040010-5
Csi
0
LIM D WAR
cr)
0
Co
0
0
0
0
71)
0
U-
?ITUATION TENSE AT BERLIN
ikWALL CROSSING POINT
-_.=-Ailiv? :1 -''--- ? -,-
.i.i ''CV
INTIM
CONVENTIO
WAR
NUCLEAR WAR
TD5 WHAT KIND OF EMERGENCY DO WE FACE?
>
2 The United States has to be prepared for emergencies ranging
Ely a y from international tension through limited or general. war to
di,,r,,' 74irert
,
Oil and
Gas
lidostry
Advisory
Committal's
Approved For Release
9-01?00170008000V/Z80016/dC1U-VI3 : 6Z/80/000Z eseelet1 JOd PeA0AdV
Vital information, maps and data are being compiled and pre-positioned
at EPGA offices for immediate use at the outset of an emergency. An
important backup data gathering and analysis system is provided EPGA
by the National Resource Evaluation Center (NREC) of the Office of
Emergency Planning. NREC now has input resource data covering such
information as major oilfields, petroleum refineries, natural gas processing
plants, alkylation and aviation gasoline facilities, tetraethyl lead plants,
petroleum storage facilities, crude oil and product pipelines facilities, and
gas transmission pipelines and facilities. The computer tapes on refineries,
for example, contain data on each refinery as to: (1) name of company;
(2) location; (3) name of nearest town; (4) crude capacity; and (5)
major downstream processing capacities. Input data is utilized in high-
speed computers at the NREC, which would provide helpful information in
assessing damage rapidly, evaluating status of surviving resources, estimat-
ing requirements and developing production programs in the post-attack
period. A similar unit is planned for each Federal Regional Center, but,
in the meantime, data are fed by NREC to electronic printers at each
Regional Center.
The National Petroleum Council (NPC), since its inception in 1946,
has been the principal voice of the petroleum and gas industries to advise,
inform and make recommendations to the Secretary of the Interior on
emergency planning including the supply of data on industry operation
which would be needed in an emergency. During the past decade, the
NPC completed over 15 highly detailed studies directly related to such
matters. In 1964, two separate reports in the field of emergency planning
for the petroleum industry were published. The first is a two-volume re-
port designed to provide oil and gas companies with a guide for the de-
velopment of company emergency plans. The second NPC study is a
careful analysis of the adequacy of Government plans for directing oil and
gas operations in an emergency?primaril:yr through EPGA. Continuing
work in this area by the NPC includes this general information booklet
and the preparation of procedural manuals for the functional divisions of
EPGA. The work of the NPC is complemented by the Emergency Ad-
visory Committee for Natural Gas. The EACNG has published an Emer-
gency Operations Manual for the Natural Gas Transmission Industry and is
currently preparing procedural manuals for the gas operating divisions of
EPGA. The Office of Oil and Gas, itself, has drafted EPGA administra-
tive and organization manuals and has issued an EPGA handbook for
Executive Reservists. A selected list of NPC reports is shown in the inset
at the right.
NATIONAL PETROLEUM
-o
COUNCIL STUDIES -o
RELATING TO EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS
o.
-n
0
Oil and Gas Emergency Defense Org,ani-
Eme gency (1954)
co
co
0
-0
cs)
Petroleum and Gas in a National Emergency (An Analysis of Gov- 0
eminent Planning) (1964)
Petroleum Industry Use of the Radio Spectrum (1960)
Proved Discoveries and Productive Capacity of Crude Oil Natural o
Gas and Natural Gas Liquids in the United States (1965) o
Storage Capacity, Petroleum (1963) S'
Storage Facilities, Petroleum (1960)
Transportation Facilities, Oa and Gas 1962
o"
Chemical Manufacturing Fa
Industries (1963)
Civil Defense and Emergency
Industries (1964)
Communication Facilities
zation (1956)
Defense Organization, Oil and Gas
Emergency Fuel Convertibility (1965)
Maintenance and Chemical Requirements for U
fineries and Natural Gasoline Plants (1961)
Manpower Requirements, Petroleum and Gas Industries (1963)
Materials Requirements for Oil and Gas Exploration, Drilling
Production (1963)
Mobilization, National Emergency, Oil and Gas (1959)
hues of the Petroleum and Natural Gas
Planning fo
the Petroleum and Gas
S. Petroleum
Re-
and
EPGA has been furnished plans and manuals prepared by other agencies
that will be activated immediately upon attack. These cover such vital
services as: wage and salary stabilization programs; money, credit and
banking; rent board instructions for stabilizing rent and determining ceil-
ing prices of real property; ration board instructions for consumer ration-
ing; and price board instructions for stabilizing prices and services.
13
WHAT SHOULD OIL AND GAS
COMPANIES DO NOW TO
PREPARE FOR NATIONAL EMERGENCIES?
So far, this booklet has dealt largely with cooperative efforts of govern-
ment and the oil and gas industry to prepare for operations in a time of
oemergency.
0 But there are important steps that each company can?and should?take
?zr
oon its own to ensure that the company can cope with a civil defense
?emergency.
co
o The National Petroleum Council has prepared a report, Civil Defense