PROPOSED PAPER NORTH VIETNAM'S INTENTIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00827A000400030005-6
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 12, 2000
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: July 21, 1966
• Content Type: PAPER

Approved FoteleasC:Q.NM/NIW*4'10827A000400030005-6
21 July 1966
D R A F T
PROPOSED PAPER
NORTH VIETNAM'S INTENTIONS
I. Hanoi Apparently Remains Determined To Continue the
War.
A. This is evident in their current war-related
activities.
1. Continued high level of infiltration.
2. Continued war mobilization in the DRV.
3. Consistent hard line political position.
4. Rebuff of all efforts to start talks.
B. This position appears to be based on a belief
that most of the determining factors in the
war are still favorable.
II. Hanoi's Evaluation of the Situation in North Vietnam.
A. The effect of US air strikes on their ability to
supply the troops in the south.
B. Status of economy. Ability to carry on.
C. The effect of the air strikes on popular morale.
D. Level of agreement with the Politburo.
E. Effect of Bloc military and political support.
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III. North Vietnam's Assessment of the Current Military
Political Situation in South Vietnam.
A. Concern over the lack of recent successes by
Communist forces.
B. The effect of the US combat troop buildup.
C. The failure of the Communists to successfully
exploit the recent political unrest in the
south.
IV. Hanoi's Estimate of US Military Intentions.
A. Against North Vietnam.
B. In South Vietnam.
C. US reaction to trials of captured airmen.
V. Future Prospects
A. Possibility of move by Hanoi toward negotiations.
B. Near term prospects for military action by
Communists.
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