THE SITUATION IN VIETNAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00826A002000010076-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 19, 2004
• Sequence Number: 76
• Publication Date: June 1, 1967
• Content Type: MEMO

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MEMORANDUM
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
The Situation in Vietnam
ARMY and DOS review(s) completed.
Top Secret
112
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Information as of 1600
1 June 1967
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Former chief of state General Duong Van
"'Big" :Minh' who led the overthrow of the Diem
regime in 1963 and who has been out of South
Vietnam for nearly three years, has formally re-
quested permission to 'return to Vietnam, undoubt-
edly for the purpose of participating in the up-
coming presidential elections.
I. The Military Situation in South Vietnam:
Scattered skirmishes were reported between US and
Communist troops in the coastal provinces of Binh
Dinh and Quang Ngai on 31 May - 1 June (Paras.
1-4). An ARVN outpost was attacked and overrun by
an enemy battalion early on 1 June (Para. 5). op-
eration PRAIRIE IV in northern Quang Tri Province
has ended and has been succeeded by Operation
CIMARRON (Paras. 6-8).
II. Political Developments in South Vietnam:
General Duong Van "Big" Minh, a former chief of
state, has asked Premier Ky and Chief of State
Thieu for permission to return to Vietnam (Paras.
1-3).
III. Military Developments in North Vietnam:
There is nothing of significance to report.
IV. Other Communist Military Developments:
There is nothing of significance to-report.
V. Communist Political Developments: Soviet
officials continue to foster the impression that
Moscow may increase its involvement in North Viet-
nam if the US continues to step up its "aggression"
(Paras. 1-3).
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South Vietnam Battle Statistics
1963 to week of 21-27 May 1967
-Weapons and Personnel Losses
-Viet Cong Attacks and Incidents
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I. THE MILITARY SITUATION IN SOUTH VIETNAM
1. A US Army company-size patrol participating
in Operation PERSHING in the northeastern part of
coastal Binh Dinh Province engaged a similar size
enemy force in well-prepared defensive positions
ten miles north of Bong Son early on 31 May. In a
23-hour battle, which ended on 1 June, more than 75
enemy soldiers were killed compared with reported
American losses of seven killed and another 35
wounded. Since its inception on 11 February, this
search-and-destroy operation has resulted in 1,762
enemy soldiers killed. Total American casualties
tQ date are 310 killed and 1,326 wounded.
2. The enemy soldiers in the 31 May engage-
ment--dressed in gray uniforms--were believed to be
North Vietnamese Army (NVA) regulars, possibly
elements of the NVA 3rd Division which traditionally
operates in the Binh Dinh - Quang Ngai Province bor-
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3. Just to the north of this engagement, a US
Army company of the three-battalion Operation
MALHEUR, currently sweeping southeastern Quang Ngai
Province, established contact about eight miles west
of Duc Pho on 31 May with a Communist force of un-
determined size. The day-long battle resulted in
enemy losses of 13 killed. Fifteen Americans were
wounded, according to preliminary reports.
4. Several hours later another skirmish
between US and Communist forces developed in the
coastal plains northwest.of Duc Pho. In this battle,
which lasted four hours, 18 Communist soldiers were
killed; there were no American casualties.
5. In Quang Tin Province to the north, a
South Vietnamese Army (ARVN) outpost several miles
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southwest of the provincial capital of Tam Ky was
attacked and overrun by an estimated battalion-
size Communist force early on 1 June. The ground
attack was preceded by a 100-round mortar barrage
and small-arms fire. According to preliminary
reports, friendly casualties are 25 killed, 15
wounded, and another 30 unaccounted for. Enemy
losses have not yet been reported.
Operation PRAIRIE Ends in Quang Tri Province
6. The fourth and last phase of the long-term
US. Marine search-and-destroy Operation PRAIRIE,
which began on 19 April in northernmost Quang Tri
Province, ended on 31 May. American casualties for
this final phase were 164 killed and 1,240 wounded.
Communist losses included 489 killed; 150 Communist
weapons were captured.
7. The overcall Operation PRAIRIE, which
began on 3 August 1966, and its predecessor, Op-
eration HASTINGS, have disrupted Communist military
activity in the northern section of South Vietnam's
I Corps area. These spoiling efforts included the
interdiction of major infiltration routes, the
dispersal of large enemy troop concentrations, the
destruction of storage and supply caches, the
discovery and subsequent destruction of complex
bunker and tunnel systems which served as defensive
positions, and the denial of strategic positions
immediately south of the Demilitarized Zone.
8. On 1 June, seven US Marine battalions
began Operation CIMARRON in the same general area
as Operation PRAIRIE IV. These forces will continue
to press NVA units currently active in northern
Quang Tri Province in an effort to disrupt any
planned future offensive operations.
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1. Former chief of state General Duong Van "Big"
Minh has asked Premier Ky and Chief of State Thieu to
permit him to return to Vietnam, undoubtedly for the
purpose of participating one way or another in the
presidential elections.
3. General Minh, who led the overthrow of the
Diem regime, in 1963 was ousted in 1964 and has re-
mained out of the country on a substantial government
pension. Although absent for nearly three years, Minh
retains genuine popular support among southern civilian
and military elements. His return would introduce an
additional significant factor into the presidential
campaign.
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it is possible that-
Chief of State Thieu might opt for Minh's return as
a means of rallying southern elements, thus compli-
cating Premier Ky's candidacy.
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INFILTRATION TOTALS SINCE 1 OCT. 1965
Based on MACV holdings as of 31 May 1967
ACCEPTED
CONFIRMED PROBABLE
TOTAL
MONTHLY
TOTALS
1965
October
6,500
-
6, 500
200
6,700
November
3,600
-
3,600
1,000
4,600
December
-
600
600
200
800
1966
January
4,200
1,700
5,900
2,500
8,400
February
6,700
2,300
9,000
2,000
11,000
March
11,500
1,500
13,000
3,700
16,700
April
100
500
600
-
600
May
900
900
1,800
3,500
5,300
June
10,500
600
11,100
1,300
12,400
July
5,000
1,200
6,200
4,400
10, }-.00
August
1,600
400
2,000
3,100
5,100
September
1,400
200
1,600
900
2,500
October
100
600
700
4,600
5,300
November
500
-
500
600
1,100
December
500
200
700
1,500
2,200
1967
January
-
600
600
1,400
2,000
February
500
-
500
400
900
March
1,500
-
1,500
4,400
5,900
Apri I
-
-
-
100
100
May
-
-
-
T OTALS
55,100
11,300
66,400
35,800
102,200
MONTHLY AVERAGE (1 OCT 1965-31 MAY 1967)
ACCEPTED: CONFIRMED AND PROBABLE 3,300
TOTAL ACCEPTED AND POSSIBLE 5,100
ACCEPTED INFILTRATION: Those NVA personnel, groups, and units which have entered South Vietnam and are carried
in the confirmed or probable categories.
CONFIRMED: A confirmed infiltration unit/group is PROBABLE: A probable infiltration unit/group is one which
one which is accepted in South Vietnam on the basis is accepted in South Vietrx?i on the basis of information
of information provided by a minimum of two POWs provided by one POW or r@t:rnee (Hoi Chanh) from the
or returnees (Hai Chanh) from the unit/group, or two unit/group, or a captured document, supported by information
captured documents from the unit, or a combination of from other sources which co- be evaluated as probably true.
personnel and documents.
POSSIBLE INFILTRATION: A possible infiltration unit/group is one which may be in South Vietnam on the basis of
information which can be evaluated as possibly true even though no POW, returnee (Hoi Chanh), or document is
available to verify the reports,
MONTH OF INFILTRATION: The month established as the date an infiltration unitrgroup crosses the international border
into South Vietnam for the first time.
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III. NORTH VIETNAMESE MILITARY DEVE. -IPMENTS
1. The most recent MACV listing of infiltration
shows that almost 9,000 North Vietnamese troops have
been detected moving into South Vietnam between 1 Jan-
uary and 31 May 1967. Of these 2,_"_-.:C a.-.-e i.sted as
confirmed, 600 as probable, and 6 300 as possible.
Moreover, there are indications
a o er arge-sca
u as Yet undetected infiltration has taken place
throughout the northern part of South Vietnam during
the first five months of 1967.
2. The enemy's infiltration methods make it dif-
ficult to detect many infiltration groups until they
have been in South Vietnam for as long as six months
and in some instances even longer. Therefore, the
figures currently cited for the period 1 December 1966
through 31 May 1967 are considered to be ~ramplete.
3. If average infiltration were computed for the
period 1 October 1965 through 30 November 1966 (the
period for which infiltration data is considered to be
relatively complete) the figures would be approximately
4,500 men per month for the accepted category, and ap-
proximately 6,500 men per moat?) for the accepted and
possible categories together.
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1. There is nothing of significance to report.
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V. COMMUNIST POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
1. The US Embassy in London has noted two
more attempts by Soviet officials over recent
weeks to foster the impression that Moscow might
be forced to increase its own involvement in
North Vietnam if the US continues stepping up
its "aggression" against the North. The reported
remarks of two Soviet Embassy officers followed
the familiar lines of public and private state-
This general line emerged shortly after osyg ni sni s
visit to the UK in February and the renewal and,
widening after the Tet holiday of US air attacs
on North Vietnam.
2. Soviet Second Secretary Makarov warned
a university audience in Britain on 28 April. that
"if the US persists in its aggressive actions it
will meet our troops and Chinese troops." In a
private conversation with US Embassy officers a
month later, Russian First Secretary Loginov
announced a similarly hard.line on Vietnam, obvi-
ously intended for the same effect. Loginov, how-
ever, explicitly confined his protestations strictly
to US actions in the North. His comment that the
USSR is not concerned with what happens in South
Vietnam echoes private remarks made by other Soviet
officials in the past.
3. Additional SAM personnel or other specialists
might be dispatched to aid in the defense of the DRV
but there is no.. good reason to believe that the So-
viets intend to send ground "troops" to Vietnam. The
USSR can be expected to provide more and heavier
military equipment to the Vietnamese Communists, but
Moscow seems no less intent on avoiding steps that
could precipitate a direct Soivet-US military confron-
tation.
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Weapons Losses
Personnel Losses
(Killed only)*
363 '1964 1965 1966 1967
US Casualties to Date: Killed 10, 566 Wounded 64,041 Captured 175
MAR APR MAY
1967
*Due to a change in the reporting of personnel losses, beginning 12 February 1967, the weekly figure will represent
only personnel killed
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APRIL
162
APRIL
3,494
i
I
1193 1964 1965 1966 1967
500
MAR APt? MAY
1967
1-V7 m
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Sue
Top Secret
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