PROSPECTS FOR VIOLENCE IN INDONESIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00826A001600010072-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 4, 2006
• Sequence Number: 72
• Publication Date: February 17, 1967
• Content Type: IM

Approved For
se 2007/04/02: CIA-RDP79T00826IN1600010072-9
No. 0794/67
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
17 February 1967
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
Prospects for Violence in Indonesia
1. Isolated armed incidents by pro-Sukarno elements
are likely in Indonesia if Sukarno refuses to resign and
has to be deposed by congressional action. The principal
locale for opposition would be last Java where marine and
police units, backed by major elements of the population,
still support the President. Incidents could also occur
in Central Java, North Sumatra, and possibly Djakarta.
2. Significant long-term dissidence seems unlikely
for a number of reasons. Military elements which may of-
fer resistance are considerably outnumbered by more dis-
ciplined forces. The national commanders of all military
forces have committed themselves t.-) General Suharto's con-
stitutional strategy against Sukarno. As in past political
crises, when-the time for congressional action approaches,
the armed forces will certainly be placed on alert status
against surprise moves by disloyal military or civilian
elements; they should be capable of prompt and effective
retaliation, or even, preventive action. Lastly, the desire
to be on the winning side is likely to outweigh the Sukarno
loyalties of most potential dissidents.
3... Indonesian Army officers expect trouble in East
Java, particularly in Surabaya, the provincial capital,
if Congress deposes Sukarno. The provincial police chief
NOTE: This memorandum was produced solely by CIA. It was
prepared by the Office of Current Intelligence and
coordinated with the Office of National Estimates
and the Clandestine Services.
State Dept. review completed
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devoted follower of the president, and army officers
say that East Java paramilitary (Mobile Brigade) police
units, tot