THE SITUATION IN VIETNAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00826A001300010057-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 23, 2006
• Sequence Number: 57
• Publication Date: October 19, 1966
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
::Aff0rWh6PL---/
THE SITUATION IN VIETNAM
State Department review completed
NSA review completed Information as of 1600
19 October 1966
ARMY review(s) completed.
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PREPARED FOR THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
FURTHER DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION
CONTAINED HEREIN IS NOT AUTHORIZED
Ap
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HIGHLIGHTS
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I. The Military Situation in South Vietnam:
South Vietnamese soldiers engaged a multibat-
talion Viet Cong force in the Mekong Delta Prov-
ince of Chuong Thien (Para. 1). A Communist
tra,~wwler was discovered unloading supplies along
the coast of Quang Tin Province and US Marines
are en route to the scene (Para. 2). Viet Cong
guerrillas attacked the base camp of the 173rd
Airborne Brigade late yesterday with grenades
and small-arms fire (Para. 3). South Vietnamese
troops discovered a Communist arms cache that
included a 75-mm. pack howitzer--the first field
piece to be captured from the Communists (Para. 4).
MACV has accepted the 20th North Vietnamese Atmy
Regiment in South Vietnam (Paras. 5-6).
Political Developments in South Vietnam:
The first contingent
o re urning FULRO tribesmen was feted cere-
moniously on 17 October (Para. 5-6).
III. Military Developments in Lorth Vietnam:
A new surface-to-air complex--closer to the DMZ
than any site thus far detected--may be opera-
tional, according to pilot information (Para. 1).
Possible reasons for the low number of SAM fir-
ings in the past two months are discussed (Paras. 2-4).
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IV. Other Communist Military Developments:
There is nothing of significance to report.
V. Communist Political Developments: There
is nothing of significance to report.
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L
~ ft
`Da Nang
NORTH ?DOng Hoi
, VIETNAM
(f' Saravane
r? Kontum?
Beached Trawler
Ky
SOUTH VIETNAM
25 50 75 100 Miles
1 5i S
0 25 5C 15 100 K~lomelers
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I. THE MILITARY SITUATION IN SOUTH VIETNAM
1. Major fighting has broken out between
South Vietnamese Army (ARVN)'troops and Viet
Cong guerrillas in the Mekong River delta re-
gion following a week of steadily mounting
guerrilla harassment and sabotage in the rice-
rich area. A regiment of the 21st ARVN Divi-
sion encountered an estimated two-battalion
Viet Cong force in an area about five miles
east of Duc Long in Chuong Thien Province yes-
terday. During the ensuing nine-hour battle
29 ARVN soldiers were reported killed and 62
were wounded. There have been no reports of
enemy losses.
2. A US Navy patrol boat sighted and ex-
changed fire with a large trawler that had
been beached on the coast of Quang Tin Prov-
ince about five miles north of Tan Ky today.
Approximately 300 Vietnamese were observed un-
loading crates from the trawler. US aircraft
made two napalm strikes on the ship, setting
it afire. A US Marine company has been heli-
lifted into the area but no reports have as
yet been received from the marines.
3. Late on 18 October, the base area of
the US 173rd Airborne Brigade near Bien Hoa in
Bien Hoa Province was attacked by Viet Cong
guerrillas using grenades and small-arms fire.
Two claymore-type mines were also fired into
the area during the 15-minute attack. American
losses included two killed, 12 wounded, one
helicopter destroyed, and one truck damaged.
The US unit reacted with counterfire, but Com-
munist casualties are unknown.
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First Field Piece Captured From Viet Cong
4. An ARVN search-and-destroy operation,
CUU LONG 44/66D in Kien Hoa Province, uncovered
a large cache of arms and ammunition on 17 Octo-
ber. Of particular significance was the capture
of a 75-mm. pack howitzer (country of origin un-
specified in preliminary reports) and ammunition
for it.`. 'his is the first time that an artillery
field piece has been captured from the Communists.
Prior to this time, several artillery pieces have
been reported destroyed as the result of air ac-
tion, and quantities of artillery ammunition have
been captured. In addition to the howitzer, four
.50-cal. machine-guns, including one-configured
as an antiaircraft weapon, were seized. A total
of ten tons of ammunition (75-mm., 7.62-mm., and
recoilless rifle) was also captured,
Another North Vietnamese Regiment in South Vietnam
5. MACV has accepted the first North Viet-
namese Army artillery regiment--the 84A--in South
Vietnam. The 84A has a strength of 1,200 men and
is presently in III Corps. It is the 20th North
Vietnamese Army regiment confirmed to date in South
Vietnam. The unit departed North Vietnam in late
March of this year and was first encountered in the
Darlac Province border area in early August. MACV
believes that the 84A Regiment is unlikely to op-
erate as a regimental-sized force, but probably
will provide fire support and reinforcement ele-
ments to enemy forces in the III Corps area.
6. With the acceptance of this regiment and
one other battalion of the 630th Division, total
confirmed North Vietnamese Army strength in South
Vietnam now stands at 48,900. Because of heavy
infiltration during the past several months there
are undoubtedly significantly more North Vietnamese
in the South. However, there is at present insuf-
ficient information on many of the newly infil-
trated units to include them in the order of battle.
It is estimated that by the end of 1966, total North
Vietnamese strength will be almost half of the esti-
mated Communist main force strength in South Vietnam.
The current main force figure is 114,014.
19 October 1966
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App
II. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN SOUTH VIETNAM
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Dissident Montagnards Pledge Loyalty to
5. The first phase of the return to govern-
ment control of the FULRO forces, the dissident
tribal autonomy movement, was completed on 17 Oc-
tober at Pleiku city in Pleiku Province, However,
only 250 of the estimated 7,000 tribesmen returned
from their base in Cambodia to attend the ceremony.
The rest, including their leader, Y B,Ham Enoul,
are reportedly waiting word of how the first dele-
gation was received before committing themselves
further to the GVN.
6. According to US Embassy observers who at-
tended the ceremony, the Vietnamese Government
speakers, missed the_ Q:ppkrt:unity. to , improve
the tenuous GVN-FULRO relationship, as had been
outlined in a previous agreement. The speakers
failed to mention the "four points" or the "special"
demands on which the rapprochement had-originally
hinged. According to one US official, FULRO's at-
titude toward the GVN has softened somewhat because
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of increased pressures from Viet Cong and North
Vietnamese military forces operating in their
base area.
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?KO?C iu ?? j'pong.Van '
I N; A
? Bong Saly
Dien Bien Phu ?
Son La
Hda Binh r
?~ ~y` ? ? He Giang
NORTH VIETNAM
0 25 50 15 We,
0 25 50 75 Kilometer;
Muang Nakhon Phanom'?Khammquane
Ching-hsi
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Can Bang .._ /??
?BacGiang is
? Ba Ninh
Hai vvk ofi~ o
?. ilk
Duong ?
A
-``
KAn
=-
Hung Yen
suspect d 'AM Si
';DMZ
DEMARCATION LINE
Bd Ho Su a Quang Tri
>k
1\' ^ SOUT14
H ? VIETNAM
Muong Nong'^:
LAOS ~,,;_
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1. A new surface-to-air missile complex--
closer to the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) than any site
thus far detected--may be operational, according to
information derived from a pilot report of 18 Octo-
ber. Two US Navy pilots reported sighting a probable
SA-2 missile in flight, and back-plotting of the
missile's track indicated that it had been fired
from a battery within six to eight miles of the DMZ.
If the new site is confirmed it will pose a signifi-
cant threat to US air operations in this area--par-
ticularly the high-altitude bombing missions of
Guam-based B-52s.
the
North Vietnamese SAM Firings Have Declined
2. In recent weeks, North Vietnamese
SAM
ac-
tivity has been at its lowest level since
June
1966
when only 35 missiles are known to have been fired
at US aircraft. A spectacular rise in DRV missile
firings occurred in July and August 1966 when the
combined monthly total of SA-2 launches--389--ex-
ceeded all the missiles fired since the system was
established in July 1965. Now there appears to be
an equally dramatic decline in missile firings, as
only 115 shots were observed in September and only
17 to date in October.
3. The explanation for this decline probably
lies in a combination of circumstances rather than
in a command decision on the part of the DRV air
defense authorities. During July and August 1966,
the DRV SA-2 system had an unprecedented number of
aircraft to fire at as US strike missions were
directed for the first time at targets in the Hanoi-
Haiphong area where most of North Vietnam's SAM sites
are located. In September and October, however, the
weight of US attack sorties has been shifted to tar-
gets south of the 20th parallel in an effort to
counter the build-up of DRV forces in and around the
DMZ. The North Vietnamese have been making strenuous
19 October 1966
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efforts to relocate some SAM units in the southern
portion of the country, but they do not have enough
SA-2 battalions in this area to fire as many mis-
siles as they did farther north in July and August.
4. Other factors that may have played a part
in the decline of DRV missile firings in recent weeks
include the possibility that with the continued poor
performance of the SA-2 system--30 planes downed for
875 missiles fired--the North Vietnamese may have
been convinced to limit their shots to those having
a higher probability of success. It is also possible
that US electronics countermeasures, the use of the
Shrike missile, and an increasing number of conven-
tional ordnance attacks against the SAM sites, may
have made the DRV missilemen more cautious in their
approach. There is no evidence to indicate that the
decline in North Vietnamese SAM firings can be at-
tributed to a lack of SA-2 missiles. While the num-
ber of missiles supplied by the Soviet Union remains
unknown, it is unlikely that the North Vietnamese
would have fired at the rate they did this summer
if they had anticipated any shortage of missiles in
the fall. On the contrary, the tenor of recent pro-
nouncements from Moscow and Hanoi suggest that at
least in the area of air defense the Russians in-
tend to continue to support the DRV at a high level.
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