WILL THANT RUN AGAIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00826A000800310001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 11, 2002
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 9, 1966
• Content Type: REPORT

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No. 1361/66
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
9 June 1966
Will Thant Run Again?
1. Later this month Secretary General Thant
is expected to announce his decision on whether to
offer to continue in office after his first full
five-year term expires on 3 November. The trend of
speculation in New York is that there is a strong
possibility Thant has decided not to run again. Dur-
ing the past year he has commented to his close
friends and colleagues that he does not desire to
continue in office, and he has said he would be
happy if the Security Council could find someone
else. However, as in the past, Thant may be en-
gaged in a maneuver to strengthen his position by
worrying the major powers about the difficulties
they would have in choosing a successor.
2. The Secretary General is chosen by the Gen-
eral Assembly on the recommendation of the Security
Council. At present, all the permanent members are
supporting Thant's re-election. During his European
trip last month, both Britain and France urged Thant
to stay on. The US recently publicly announced sup-
port for his candidacy. The USSR has yet to do so,
but it has been generally satisfied with Thant, and
for lack of other suitable candidates Moscow would
probably not veto his re-election. However, the
Russians will bargain for personnel changes in the
Secretariat before they give him formal support.
*Prepared by the Office of Current Intelligence
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4. Another major factor in a decision not tb
run would be his disillusionment with the present
state of the United Nations, and the frustration he
has experienced as Secretary General. Thant is
particularly upset about the failure of the members
to resolve the peacekeeping and financial problems
brought about by the Article 19 crisis of last year.
No progress has been made in the Committee of 33 on
the constitutional problems involved in the authori-
zation of peacekeeping operations, nor the problems
of financing them. This has contributed to the al-
ready grave problems in financing UN peacekeeping
operations--especially the operation in Cyprus. The
failure of members to make voluntary contributions
to alleviate the UN's financial situation has further
disturbed Thant, who has threatened not to seek re-
election on these grounds alone,
5. Thant is also worried by the attempts of
some of the major powers to limit the role of the
Secretary General in peacekeeping functions. Dur-
ing the Kashmir crisis of last fall, Thant came
under heavy attack from the French and the Soviets
who claimed that he had exceeded the powers given
him by the Security Council in setting up the UN
observer missions there. Thant complained bitterly
that if the Secretary General had to go to the Coun-
cil to get authorization for every aspect in the
administration of a peacekeeping operation, then
little would be left of that position's authority
in such matters. Thant has been careful since these
attacks to acquire Council authorization, as evidenced
in part by his handling of the question of UN ob-
servers for the South Vietnamese elections.
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6. Another factor is Thant's frustration with
the Vietnam problem. Thant believes that the UN,
and more especially its Secretary General, should be
able to play some sort of a mediary role in the con-
flict, but he realizes this is impossible because of
the violent opposition of Peking and Hanoi, as well
as the inability of the Security Council to take any
action. Thant's frustration is perhaps reflected in
his reaction to Saigon's recent request for UN ob-
servers. Initially, Thant foresaw a large-scale UN
operation in Vietnam--one that included a. 6,000-member
observer mission which would actually supervise the
elections. However, realizing that this would never
be approved by the Council, even if desired by the
South Vietnamese, Thant washed his hands of the whole
affair by turning the matter over to the Council presi-
dent with the knowledge that any kind of UN role would
not be accepted by the permanent members.
7. The last straw for Thant could be the re-
ported Soviet pressure to exact concessions in re-
turn for support. Although the Soviets have little
reason to be unhappy with Thant, they will undoubtedly
want to play this game for all it is worth. This is
an opportune time for the Soviets to try to strengthen
the position of their nationals in the Secretariat,
particularly that of Nestorenko, who now has little
With Thant so hesitant about running
in the first place and so touchy about his relation-
ship with the Soviet Union, any Soviet pressure could
well be the determining factor in his decision to
leave.
8. Thant could decide to accept a shortened
second term of two or three years' duration, but if
he decides not to run, a crisis will develop at the
UN. At the moment there are no qualified candidates
who would be acceptable to all the members. Several
names have been mentioned--Adebo of Nigeria, Slim of
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Tunisia, Mateos of Mexico, Endalkatchew Makonnen of
Ethiopia, and Prebisch of Argentina--but none are
strong candidates. Thant himself has said that if
it were politically possible, the best man would be
Schurman, the former Netherlands representative.
He said that it would be useful to have a European
administrator come in to tighten up the organiza-
tion. UN members will be hard put to find a suc-
cessor to Thant.
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