POPULATION OF THE COMMUNIST COUNTRIES SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79S01100A000100100006-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 1, 1998
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: April 1, 1965
• Content Type: IR

10000 1
_ O Iease 1999/09/21: CIA-RDP79SO1100A001? d
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
POPULATION OF THE COMMUNIST COUNTRIES
SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80
EIC SR5-S5
April 1965
l-2
rb r'.?'1!?=~Ef~: _ !
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON POPULATION AND MANPOWER
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declassification
i:, %ili;t: fJ"I f4"a _
^,i 11" r- I
Approved For Release 1999/09/21: CIA-RDP79SO1 1 0OA0001 00100006-3
 Approved For Release 1999/09/21: CIA-RDP79SO1 1 0OA0001 00100006-3
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
Printed and Disseminated
by
Central Intelligence Agency
Approved For Release 1999/09/21: CIA-RDP79SO1 1 0OA0001 00100006-3
 Approved For Release I 999/ p AgSL I p0A000100100006-3
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
POPULATION OF THE COMMUNIST COUNTRIES
SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80
EIC SR5-S5
April 1965
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON POPULATION AND MANPOWER
.-C-ONFID ENT] AL-- -- -I -y
Approved For Release 1999/09/21: CIA-RDP79SO1 1 0OA0001 00100006-3
 Approved For Release I 9 1- . r = 11 0OA0001 00100006-3
CONTENTS
Page
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Tables
1. Estimated and Projected Population of the Communist
Countries on 1 January, Selected Years, 1938-80 . . . . 3
2. Estimated and Projected Population of the Communist
Countries on 1 July, Selected Years, 1938-80 . . . . . . 7
Appendix
Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Approved For Release I 99 # 1z:-O .R 9' 0140OA000100100006-3
 Approved For Release 1 0OA000100100006-3
POPULATION OF THE COMMUNIST COUNTRIES
SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80
Introduction
This report presents estimates and projections of the populations
of the Communist countries for selected years, 1938-80. These esti-
mates and projections, which supersede those published in EIC SR5-S4,
April 1964, CONFIDENTIAL, are basic statistics of the intelligence
community as established formally through the Subcommittee on Popula-
tion and Manpower of the Economic Intelligence Committee (EIC). The
members of the Subcommittee include representatives of the Department
of Commerce, the Department of Defense, the Department of Labor, the
Department of State, and the Central Intelligence Agency. The re-
spective member agencies, in some areas, may have different statistics
to meet individual requirements, but these differences do not affect
the validity of these community-established statistics for general
usage.
Estimates and projections of the total population in each country
for selected years, 1938-80, are shown in Tables 1 and 2.* The esti-
mates for the USSR, Eastern Europe, Albania, and Yugoslavia are con-
sidered to be more reliable than those for Cuba, Mongolia, Communist
China, North Korea, and North Vietnam. For the USSR, Eastern Europe,
Albania, and Yugoslavia the estimates either were obtained directly
from censuses, yearbooks, and statistical journals of the countries
concerned and from publications of the United Nations or were de-
rived from these materials. For Cuba, Mongolia, Communist China,
North Korea, and North Vietnam, only fragmentary data are available,
and the methods by which estimates for these countries were made are
discussed in the Appendix. The population projections are based on
assumptions that are stated in the Appendix.
The over-all classification of this report is CONFIDENTIAL, but
the tables are UNCLASSIFIED.
* Pp. 3 and 7, respectively, below.
Approved For Release 1 OOA000100100006-3
 ** H
0
w
a)
-H
0
U
ca 0
-H CO
O
M
O
U
H
a) U
H --P cUd
cad CH ~-1
H O
rd
0 a)
O 4-'
?Hl O
cd H
O
Pi
0
W
rd
(1)
4-)
O
U
0
rd
9
rd
a)
-P
cd
E
w
W
ease I 99!Np9 CJA; RDP79S0I1(QOAPP04Q IQP006-3
O H N- N Cn `- 0 O\ CO O\ N O Co N- H CO H co
101 O\ HHHNH H o\HH N H
`O O
H N
HI N
co
Lr\
O\
H
CO
H
L
CO
0
N
O\I
0
N
- ao CO m O m .-t d\ Ln D N- o m
CO L- cn N 0 O\ CO C- H O U \ L- rl CO 0 00
O\ HHHNH O. COHH N H
CI
Ln
CO CO mO\O\H
L-- HH tl- 0'\ J00 co T\ 0 Lf\
HH UV COHH N
j
H \1O H
O\ H
HBO O~
CO m C Lr\ L r\ O\ a\
H ~I H N O H
0\ HH 00
0
r\OOaoO N a) O\ N H-HCOH-
O N C - m co O\ C- L- L` MOD -:I- T\ H CO 0 L-
-II C71\ HH NH ~I 0 H N H
LS\ O Nm co N
III CO 0000 LCI\ 1 ~ H H ~ cu H CO ~ ~ r-I 0) Lr\ 0 H
Lf\
m 00 CO
0I co
CO
M
ON
H
2 0
\O m Co COON U\ H H I H- m O\ oO
LHH0'\ )H ~I ~H N -I \00
LC\ N cx) OO Lc\ Ln H dl O I H' N CO \O
Ll- ~
HHNH ---t H H-I ) H\,00H
O\N O\mO L N\O N H Oco m
\O L`- O\ Lr\ U\ N CO O\H- N H t \ O U co
H H N H r 0 H N H H
~O Lr\ H CO r\ CO
\O H H O\ m H O\ L-~ H N
-t --t
O \O
rn~ CO O
CO CO - O H Lam- m
N- H 0) I O H Lf\
-Zf
N males Lt\\O
CO L1\ LC\ O\ O\ O
H N mH -
H ? H -P 0
? U
O +) a) d ?ri ?H
-H w cd H U) cd ccdd CCd
0
cd -P -N CO cd bO O
U N N W 9 c~ W O `~ r0 r, U U
-N N cd O O O O a) 7 O d
H co c Pau F4 )PWP~ c d a U~ .0 ~U 'H H
-P N f=, 0 -N
0 0
Approv d For Rel ate 1999/09/21 : CIA-RDP79S0110OA000100100006-3
 Apprc
a)
O
h
ci) O
?rA 00
CO
M
O\
U H Id
H Q) I
cad Ci 0
O 4I
H a)
P
0
PA
rd
U
a)
0
Appro
ed
rn
ON
H
O\
H
O\
H
U-\
O\
H
O\
H
ON
H
ed For
Rija~
H
O
L
M
H
Ln
-
N
H'.
O M OO - L O N O\ aD f\ M O\ H
- HHHMH -I HHH M
N O H CO CO
NII
CC)
L-
H
NHH'ONH
91b f l?i tiA-
MH H O\-~O N
O11 A6'bMM 0
lr,~\ ~
O\ - Cn Ln O\ - O L- 0) Ln Ln - CO
CO L\ L- O- O HI M\,D H -:j- N CO H H 0
HHHMH N- coH0) co N L--
H
0) "O Ln L- Ln M ON L- ON u\ LCh H L- CV Lf\
M co CO - L- 0 N ON L- M ON H N L- H 0
N
N 0 HHHMH ~I ~MH H co
i-n O ~' NO Ln M NO \O Ln H N
NL-H0
C\j
ii
LnN
M~
N
N
H
- Ln - N N- N C- COI O Ln N H
CO .- L- 0 N ON O\I L- co CO O N L- H 0 0
H H HMH N O\H H CO N 0
CO L- N
H
H mM N O\M
N H
C N O M H CO
HHI HHH COY1 N L H H 01\ 00
co Ll- 1-1
N N M N N Ln O\ a O\ N H \O
co w- L`--0 H ON - MN C- ON H l-H ON L-
HHHMH OI \OHH N H
M dl'
Lr\ a\
H N ~
al
H
H
M
N
N
NO
L
O
H
NI
ON
O\
N H N H MO H u\ - M H H-
03 - L- 0 H ON \,DI \O N L- ON H L- H ON
H H H M H N H H N H
H O N H O\ O\ OOH 0
N 0 OCHO OI MH H N
C-
L-
CC) O
O N
H c- H OH\
H MI O O\ H H Ln L? Ln OO Ld L- OO O O
CO co co CO L- O O CO CO Ln H NO CO H NO H ON MI
N a\ HHHMH NI HHH N H O,1 0
M
O\
H
N
NI OCO H O HBO H- NI L-M O 1,-
L-- CO L- O O CO 01 CO H NO CO H NO H CO
D\ HHHMH O H H N H
I
u1
a)
a) a)
0
0 cd 0 O 0
U rl CQ U
rte) 0 U cd r H
I EQ a) 1 cd -H Cd cd r-i IC, 0 40 C) + M O
O Pi -F) N cd O W 0 O O a) H O 0 U
Rejeaee 1991b/1 ~'~'A-F )P?JSo1 I f)AO M0610010
0 0
H H
0
a)
a)
0
D -P
0
,O H a)
CQ H
H 4-i H
0
-P cd a)
0 -H
a) H co ca 0)
--p O H
0
9 Q
rd rd 0
rd
0
Q a
Cl) a)
5 cd
O
0 -H 1
R 0 r-I
L(\
0 40
C) 51,
c
w rd
rd
O CCQ w
U
0
a) -N
w-P CQ
9CH w
U O
Pa
O w
?-N a)
rd H -p
a) O O
0
Q) -p -N
X, Cd
-P 4-1 H
0 a) PA
a) a) 0
a) PA
co
a)
?H -p
0 43
r-~ Ca
rg a0
.~ m
0
a) OH ~
H O 0
O O Cl)
- ca w
0
 Appr ed F r R lease 9/0W ,1,4 cRDP79SQ11-POApOPioQ QOOO6-3
L~
I r1 CO L- 7u,
m L- 0 ON C U-'I co H \o co I I Io ri m W ON ~N Irl ri N rl ~ rl rl N rI O~I
O ri
0
O N o0 O\ N- N O ~O \O 0 L \O L- O
rl 0 N I `O L - M L? 0 ON CO MI \0 L
0 -I rl \O ri CO NII
O\ ri~l N a, rlrirfNrl 1~ co I~ N rI OII 0
0
U
+p
-1 0
Go
M
0 ON
Q)
vQ
CH (D
O H
0 Id
O _N
N
R{ U]
0
PA
rd
CO
Lr\
O\
H
Ti
T~f\
ON
r-i
Go
M
O\
H
CO
M
ON
r-4
M
O
H
O
ri
O\II H
O\
CO \O M O\ r-I N M L \O L O\ N
L
ff) N O\ON\~ aI ~0 N ri`O 000
M L-U . ' O\L'H
u L- c N C)", 00 CO
ON
L- .I Lf\ CO N CO
L- fvLhO\CO N-
ri r- N H
O\ r-1 H ~N ri
H CO I Lc rl O\ CON M O\ O\ CO H CO L\
\O N L M L O\ L L H u1 H'O 0 L,-
(7\ ON H H N r-I I H N rl
Lf\
CO
CO
O O
L- Go
CII
o r-A
ON
M.- .-- MOO M
L co NO\N'0
O\N O\cnO L
rnON ON L\u\O\0
CC) Lfl\ -4 C\j
\O L-I L(\ d\
O'\ Lr\ \O I rl NI ~~OOH
MO M ON M O\ L-
~I N d\H N rim O H
N L- CO N U-\ . M
H 1 L-- :-ONON N H U - \ Ln Lf\
N N N I rI O CO M
L- U\ \,O N O\ \O O\ L- O O O- L- O\
\O N' ON H OI \O 00 in N H ON 0
N M rl N L- CO L Lf\ O L
\O \O O\ MN O0\ OI `0 CO in N r-I ON 0 U
ON _
Ml
m
0
I
r-II
i U)
a) a) P i
+ -P 0
0
4) -P P4 U C 0 ?r-I -- o
0 0) -P
q
u
11
0
+)
O ?rl O1 I rl )
O 0 rd
U (1) H N v) C) r-{ W I. o a o t10 U -p
Z -N N c d O 0 9 9 N O O
~ ~ C/ U W M Pi P U U D+ -P CG P~,
Approved For R Iase 1999/09/21 :.CIA-RDP79SO11OOA000I00100006-
-N ) W N
O
 Appr?
Appro
ed
O
FOT
O,
O1
H
LC\
O\
H
I\D
O\
m
O,
O>
ed For
R0
Cu
6
CO
m
c
N
OD
Lr\
Cu
NNN~1O-Zj-N
999 f~IP:UA-
H
m c u~ 0 rl Lc\ N O u\ \O O
00 CO u,L-Ou\O Cu CO N00 rIN
r-I 0 r-Ar-1HmN OO -:'riN m Cu
\O rl 00 LrhmrlCO HC~ OI Ncp mN
I- .:t oO H- N 0 cn O\ L j m z- O, N N L- r-1 0
l r H-Hr-i m Cu
N 01 -1 H H m
O
m _
Hi N
N
O\
cc
r~
~j
r~
to
N
rl rl 0
M co L` O N O1 N m O\ Cu L
0 -1 r- rl m r-i -1 H ml N 00 00
..~N -
00 N O N O, d\ cc M OZ) O
0 HHHmH ml Or-Ir-I m
OD C
CO m Cu rl O u\ u,l O N O\
r-I cc) --t O N O, O O\ m c0 0 N L` r-I d\ O\
0 r-i H r-I m H CCU 0 H H m 1-1 co
r1 mmmCc N cO H O O\cnH N-
Cu H cc 0 H N rl d\ N
r-I CO . L~ 0 H O, N NL--
H 0 r-IHr1 m H ~O H In H cO
H
cnN u\H
mL
bI U-HH
cI
N
cc
N
M
N
rl
O u\ N N
N L r-I O Cu
Cu
c3\ r-I r-I U
r-I
c
N
N
Cu
4H
N 0
N
0]
N 0
cd +
C
cd
0
'ci rl a)
(C H
ca O cad
Cd CH -1
H
+P cd (1)
0
C) m
O H m
ca Q)
-P OO H
bio
Id
-0
cd cd
rd
O cd
51, .H a)
Cdd ,Q N
(C O
W -P
q, rA
rC W
CQ
U
CH
U)
CU CO O W
O
?ri
? -P N
cd H
?H -P
N O 0
P~ PA
) 0
O I H r-1 N r-1 r-{ O O M C\j CO O r-1 m
O\ cc - Lam- O r4 o\ OO 00 N Lam- H C- H O\
O\ H rl r-1 m H cO In rl H N H
d\
O NN O\
Hi
r~ I
H co
u\II O II Cu
O
O -P FA (D ?H ?r-i ca rd
r- chi) N 'p, cd O ?r4 cd C
O C) r d ?r{ -I-> O ?H C - ) ,
H
O 40 O -P U cd -P +' cd cd b.0 O 0
U P d N cd 0 W 0 0 0 0 N ? rri U O
Re eape 1,Q99/T4/21x: CIA-F )PY9?011 )A000'I 0010 rl00
H H
L cc O C0
H D -I cc
u\
cc
O
ri
Cd 0
Cd 0 0
m H CC C O
U
0
rIONHIL C 'oO\ OO cc,OrI
co .-~ C-- O O OS H m rl cO OO H \O H O\ m
C
rl rI rl m I H H Cu H 0
r-I
OO\r -IrImL- m\O m
00m r1~ HInH ml OHHl~ Cu 00
 Approved For Release I 99SA9 '1-~-CtAi="P"SO110OAOOO1001OOOO6-3
APPENDIX
METHODOLOGY
The following notes give separately the sources, methods, and
assumptions on which are based the population estimates and projections
for each of the Communist countries. All relevant official data --
that is, data released by the respective governments -- were considered
and evaluated in making these estimates. For Eastern Europe, Albania,
and Yugoslavia the figures for 1938-64 (except for 1945, for which see
below) are official estimates, official estimates adjusted to 1 January
and 1 July of each year, or official estimates adjusted to accord with
recent censuses.
For the USSR the estimates for 1950-62 are consistent with the 1959
census and with official data on births and deaths for the period.
Those for 1963 are consistent with provisional birth and death rates
for 1963, but later data (consisting of the absolute number of births
and a death rate) imply a natural increase of about 0.1 million lower
than the provisional data. No information relating to births during
1964 has been published, but a death rate of 7.2 per 1,000 population
is available. The estimates shown here assume a death rate of 7.1 per
1,000 population for 1964.
For the Far East, Mongolia, and Cuba, official data are seldom
available in sufficient quantity or detail to permit intensive analysis,
and those that have been released often manifest unaccountable internal
inconsistencies. In the case of Communist China, for example, the
population figures officially reported for 1949-58 are inconsistent
with birth and death rates also reported for these years and with age
and sex data from the 1953 census. The estimates and projections for
China are based on the total population reported in the 1953 census
and on rates of increase that are consistent with China's imperfectly
known demographic history. Official data for North Vietnam and North
Korea are of even more uncertain reliability. An allowance of as much
as plus or minus 10 percent error in the estimates for these three coun-
tries would certainly not be excessive.
For the USSR, Eastern Europe, Albania, and Yugoslavia the estimates
for 1945 are less reliable than those for other years because birth and
death rates for the war years and early postwar years have not been
reported and because reliable data on migration during these years are
not available.
Approved For Release I 999LQ9121;iCLA1 ?79 Q1IOOA000I00100006-3
 Approved For Release 1*"1e9/24B-C1k D79S0110OA000100100006-3
1938, prewar and present boundaries; 1950; and 1955-59: Based on
Tsentral'noye Statisticheskoye Upravleniye pri Sovete Ministrov SSSR,
Vestnik statistiki (Statistical Herald), No. 11, 1963, P. 93.
1945: Estimated.
1960-63: Derived by adding the reported natural increase to the
population estimate for 1 January 1959. No allowance was made for
migration. The figures shown axe the same as the offici-al estimates,
rounded to the nearest 0.1 million, for 1 January 1960, 1961, and 1963.
They differ by 0.1 million or 0.2 million from the following official
estimates:
Population
Date (Million Persons)
1 July 1960 214.4
1 July 1961 218.0
1 January 1962 219.7
1 July 1962 221.5
1 July 1963 224.8
The official estimates imply an unexplained residual of -34,000 for
1960, +15,000 for 1961, and +85,000 for 1962 -- a net residual of
+66,000 for the 3-year period. Although some former Polish citizens
reportedly were repatriated to Poland and some Kazakhs reportedly
entered the USSR from China during this period, the residuals could not
be specifically ascribed to migration as opposed to errors in the
population registers on which the estimates were based.
1964: Estimate based on the assumption that the level of fertility
established for 1963 would remain in effect during 1964 and that mor-
tality would decline from its 1963 level. Official estimates of 226.3
million for 1 January 1964 and of 22.7.8 million for 1 July 1964, which
are the same as the estimates shown in Tables 1 and 2, respectively,
are given in Tsentral'noye Statisticheskoye Upravleniye pri Sovete
Ministrov SSSR, Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 1963 godu, statisticheskiy
yezhegodnik (The National Economy of the USSR in 1963, A Statistical
Yearbook), Moscow, 1965, p. 8.
1965-80: Projection based on the assumption that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at a level close to that
for 1963 (grossreproduction rate = 125), and that there will be no
migration. The figures shown are based on the acceptance of the offi-
cial Soviet life tables and are designated as Series B projections in
Approved For Release ac 9 0. /j'1.i_CWFW 9S0110OA000100100006-3
 Approved For Release 1 999Wh2'f'-Ct14-C i 9ST0110OA000100100006-3
US Bureau of the Census, Projections of the Population of the USSR, by
Age and Sex: 1964-85, by James W. Brackett, International Population
Reports, Series P-91, No. 13, 1964.
Eastern Europe
Bulgaria
1938, prewar boundaries; 1945; 1950; and 1955-62: Tsentralno
Statistichesko Upravleniye pri Ministerskiya Suvet, Statisticheski
godishnik na Narodna Republika Bulgariya, 1963 (Statistical Yearbook
of the Bulgarian Peoples Republic, 1963), Sofia, 1963, p. 18.
1938, present boundaries: US Bureau of the Census, Population
Estimates and Projections for Selected Countries, 1960 to 1963, Inter-
national Population Reports, Series P-91, No. 12, 25 April 1962.
1963: United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, February
1965.
1964: Estimate based on the assumption that the level of fer-
tility established for 1963 would remain in effect during 1964 and that
mortality would decline from its 1963 level.
1965-80: Projection based on the assumption that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at the 1964 level (gross
reproduction rate = 107), and that there will be no migration.
Czechoslovakia
1938, prewar boundaries: Publication No. 74 of the Social Institute
of the Czechoslovak Republic, Twenty Years of Social Welfare in the
Czechoslovak Republic, 1938, p. 9.
1938, present boundaries; 1945; 1950; and 1955-59: Ustredni Komise
Lidove Kontroly a Statistiky, Statisticka rocenka Ceskoslovenske
Socialisticke Republiky, 1961 (Statistical Yearbook of the Czechoslovak
Socialist Republic, 1961), Prague, 1961, p. 78. The figures for 1950-59
were adjusted to accord with the results of the 1961 census.
1960-63: Ustredni Komise Lidove Kontroly a Statistiky, Statisticka
rocenka Ceskoslovenske Socialisticke Republiky, 1964 (Statistical Year-
book of the Czechoslovak Socialist Republic, 1964), Prague, 1964, p. 83.
1964: United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, February
1965.
Approved For Release I 99WO9ir21-t1 DR7 SO110OA000100100006-3
 Approved For Release-11)999109121E: SPA-ROP79S0110OA000100100006-3
1965-80: Projection based on the assumption that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at the 1964 level (gross
reproduction rate = 122), and that there will be no migration.
East Germany
1938, prewar boundaries: This figure represents the population
of the present territory of East Germany plus the former German terri-
tory now under Polish and Soviet administration. The number, shown
solely for convenience, was derived by subtracting the 1938 population
of the area that is now West Germany plus West Berlin from the 1938
population of prewar Germany.
1938, present boundaries; 1950; and 1955-64: Staatliche
Zentralverwaltung fuer Statistik, Statistisches Jahrbuch der Deutschen
Demokratischen Republik, 1964 (Statistical Yearbook of the German Demo-
cratic Republic, 1964), Berlin, 1964, pp. 498 and 506.
1945: Estimated on the basis of a population of 18,056,600 re-
ported for midyear 1946 p. 506), on reported births and deaths
in 1946, and on an adjustment for unrecorded migration from Poland.
1965-80: Projection based on the assumption that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at the 1964 level (gross
reproduction rate = 122), and that there will be no migration.
1938, prewar and present boundaries: 1950; and 1955-63: Kozponti
Statisztikai Hivatal, Statisztikai evkonyv, 1962 (Statistical Yearbook,
1962), Budapest, 1963,7-.3.
1945: US Bureau of the Census, The Population of Hungary, by Jacob
S. Siegel, International Population Statistics Reports, P-90, No. 9,
1958, Table 6. This is not an official figure; it represents an
adjustment to account for postwar migrations more carefully than do the
official data.
1964: Kozponti Statisztikai'Hivatal, Statisztikai havi kozlemenyek
(Monthly Bulletin of Statistics), No. 10, -19-6-7,-P. 7.
1965-80: Projection based on the assumption that mortality will
decline, thatfertility will remain constant at the 1965 level (gross
reproduction rate = 88), and that there will be no migration.
1938, prewar boundaries: United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of
Statistics, January 1958.
Approved For Release-t9 10S/2t:iC4A RDP79S0110OA000100100006-3
 Approved For Release 19?9kg1i1l-t1A--*6*? b1IOOA000100100006-3
1938, present boundaries: Based on an officially reported population
of 32.1 million for 1 January 1939 and on a rate of natural increase of
10.7 persons per 1,000 population reported for 1938.
1945: Estimated. It is not known precisely what population move-
ments occurred in Poland between 1945 and the date of the census in
February 1946. The population enumerated in 1946 was 23.9 million. The
Statistical Yearbook of Poland, 1947 (pp. 28-30) gives some data on the
movement of population from the west into Poland and between Poland and
areas of the USSR. Data on the transfer of Germans from Poland, on the
other hand, begin only in 1946. If only the data that are available are
used, the estimate of Poland's midyear 1945 population would be approxi-
mately 23 million. This figure should be adjusted, however, to account
for the probable number of Germans who left Poland between 1 July 1945
and February 1946 -- a number estimated at about 2 million persons. The
figure of 25.0 million used here reflects that adjustment.
1950 and 1955-62: Glowny Urzad Statystyczny, Maly rocznik
statystyczny, 1963 (Concise Statistical Yearbook, 1963), Warsaw, 1963,
p. 8. The figures for 1955-60 were adjusted to accord with the results
of the 1960 census.
1963 and 1964: Glowny Urzad Statystyczny, Biuletyn statystyczny
(Statistical Bulletin), No. 9, 1964, p. 6.
1965-80: Projection based on the assumption that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain at the 1964 level (gross reproduc-
tion rate = 124), and that there will be no migration.
1938, prewar boundaries: Institutul Centrala de Statistica,
Communicari statistice (Statistical Reports), No. 18, 15 August 1947,
p. 7.
1938, present boundaries; 1945; 1950; and 1955-63: Directia
Centrala de Statistica, Anuarul statistic al R.P.R., 1964 (Statistical
Yearbook of the Rumanian Peoples Republic, 1964), Bucharest, 1964,
p. 94.
1964: Based on birth and death rates reported in Directia Centrala
de Statistica, Buletin statistic trimestrial (Quarterly Statistical
Bulletin), No. 2, 1964, p. 5, and on the reported population for
mid-1963.
1965-80: Projection based on the assumption that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at the 1964 level (gross
reproduction rate = 96), and that there will be no migration.
Approved For Release I 99 /09`13'1-4-GhA=ROPT"0110OA000100100006-3
 Approved For Release i'9bcl%0 /~'IE-tIrAIRbO7950110OA000100100006-3
Communist China
1938, prewar and present boundaries; 1945; 1950; and 1955-58:
Estimated, with the population total from the census of 30 June 1953
as the base. The 1938, 1945, and 1950 figures were estimated on the
basis of the following assumed annual average vital rates per 1,000
population:
Period
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Natural
Increase Rate
1938-48
42.5
32.5
10.0
1948-53
45.1
26.0
19.1
To estimate the 1953-58-figures, two substitutions for official data
were made: (1) because of inconsistencies between the age-sex struc-
ture reported from the census of 1953 and the probable previous
demographic history of China, a revised age-sex structure as of 1953
was substituted; and (2) because of inconsistencies between the offi-
cial birth and death rates and the official population totals reported
for the period 1953-58, an assumed series of annual increase rat-es
rising to 2.50 percent by 1958 was substituted. The equivalent
assumed vital rates per 1,000 population, which allow for falling
mortality and the effects of age composition on the birth rate in
spite of constant age-specific-fertility rates, are as follows:
Year
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Natural
Increase Rate
1953
45.0
22.4
22.6
1954
44.8
21.3
23.5
1955
44.6
20.5
24.1
1956
44.3
19.9
24.4
1957
44.0
19.4
24.6
1958
43.5
18.8
24.7
1959-64: Projection based on the assumption that the annual in-
crease rate fell to 1.50 percent in 1961, mainly as a result of higher
mortality caused by the acute food shortages in many areas after 1958,
and. that it then rose to 2.25 percent by 1964 as a result of subsequent
improvement in the agricultural situation. The equivalent assumed
vital rates per 1,000 population are as follows:
Approved For Release I9991A9121E-C-I RDP79S0110OA000100100006-3
 Approved For Release I 99?tM4- d)7-f D1P19 '110OA000100100006-3
Year
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Natural
Increase Rate
1959
43.3
20.5
22.8
1960
43.1
25.8
17.3
1961
43.0
28.2
14.8
1962
43.0
25.8
17.2
1963
42.9
22.2
20.7
1964
42.8
20.6
22.2
1965-80: Projection based on the assumption that age-specific
fertility and mortality will remain at the levels reached in 1964 and
that there will be no significant migration. These assumptions are
arbitrary and do not involve specific conclusions about the future
course of demographic and economic development.
North Korea
1938, prewar and present boundaries: Estimated. Based on the
censuses of 1935 and 1940.
1945: Estimated. Interpolated between the figure of 9,170,000
from the census of 1 October 1944 and an official figure of 9,257,000
as of 1 January 1947 reported in Central Statistical Board, Statisti-
cal Returns of the National Economy of the Democratic People's Republic
of Korea, Foreign Languages Publishing. House, Pyongyang, 1961.
1950 and 1955-61: Reported and estimated. Based on the following
official figures from the source given above:
Date
Population
1
January 1950
9,622,000
1
December 1953
8,491,000
1
September 1956
9,359,000
1 December 1959
10,392,000
1 January 1961
10,789,000
Interpolations between these figures allow for (1) substantial net out-
migration during the years 1949-53, sufficient to exceed the assumed
natural increase for these years, and (2) rising natural increase rates
and a net in-migration of from 25,000 to 150,000 persons for various
years, 1954-61.
1962-80: Projections based on the assumptions (1) that a rising
trend of natural increase levels off at 27.5 per 1,000 population by
1962 and will remain constant thereafter, and (2) that migration ceases
Approved For Release I 999t@9t21 :IQhA R T9SQ110OA000100100006-3
 Approved For Release 9*gT&ffi"-NCIAIF ''79S0110OA000100100006-3
to be a significant factor after 1962. The assumption of a constant
rate of increase after 1962 is arbitrary and does not involve a commit-
ment to specific future trends in demographic or economic development.
1938, prewar and present boundaries; 1945; 1950; and 1955-59:
Estimated. Backward projection from the 1960 census total based on
(1) the following schedule of assumed natural increase rates per 1,000
population:
Period
Natural
Increase Rate
1935-39
12.5
1940-44
15.0
1945-49
15.0
1950-54
12.5
1955-60
17.5
and on (2) an assumed loss of 1,500,000 persons during the famine of
1944-45, a military loss of about 200,000 males during 1939-54, a net
out-.migration of 900,000 during 1954-55, and the execution of 100,000
landlords during 1955-56.
1960: Estimated on-the basis of the census figure of 15,916,955
as of 1 March 1960.
1961-65: Projection based on the following assumed birth, death,
and natural increase rates per 1,000 population:
Year
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Natural
Increase Rate
1960
42.5
25.0
17.5
1961
42.5
24.6
17.9
1962
42.5
23.3
19.2
1963
42.5
21.7
20.8
1964
42.5
20.4
22.1
1965
42.5
20.0
22.5
1966-80: Projection based on the assumption that age-specific
fertility and mortality will remain at the levels reached in 1965 and
that there will be no significant migration. These assumptions are
arbitrary and do not involve specific conclusions about the future
course of demographic and economic development.
Approved For Releas ?I 9Jt$9~Y4-NG`1 -1* P79S0110OA000100100006-3
 Approved For Release I 99/O9121-TCK fYP7'8O110OA000100100006-3
Other Communist Countries
Albania
1938, prewar and present boundaries; 1945; 1950; and 1955-62:
Drejtoria e Statistikes, Anuari statistikor i R.P. Sh. 1963 (Statisti-
cal Yearbook of the Albanian Peoples Republic, 1963), Tirana, 1964,
p. 61.
1963: United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, February 1965.
1964: British Broadcasting Corporation, Summary of World Broad-
casts, Part II: Eastern Europe, No. EE/1735/B/6, 15 December 19 .
1965-80: Projection based on the assumption that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at the 1964 level (gross
reproduction rate = 303), and that there will be no migration.
Cuba
1938, prewar and present boundaries; 1945; 1950; and 1955-58:
United Nations, Demographic Yearbook, 1960, New York, 1960.
1959-80: Although total population figures through midyear 1964
have been published by the United Nations, they were not accepted,
because they imply no emigration. Instead, the population since 1959
was based on a projection in which it was assumed that mortality will
remain constant, that fertility will remain constant (gross reproduc-
tion rate = 200), and that migration will be negligible after 1962.
Net out-migration for the period 1959-62 was assumed to be 75,000
annually.
The birth and death rates in the mid-1950ts were estimated as 33
and 13 per 1,000 population, respectively (Consejo National de Economia,
Estimados de la poblacion de Cuba para Enero 28 de 1959 [Estimates of
the Population of Cuba for 2 January 19591, Havana, 1959). A gross
reproduction rate of 200 was established as consistent with this birth
rate. The age-specific and sex-specific mortality rates from the Life
Tables for Negroes in the United States, 1939-41, established as con-
sistent with a death rate of 13 per 1,000 population, were assumed to
hold for Cuba.
The assumption that emigration was 75,000 annually for the period
1959-62 is based, in part, on information from the US Immigration and
Naturalization Service that about 1,300 to 1,400 Cubans came to the
US each week. The number going to other countries is unknown. Regular
airline flights between Cuba and the US were stopped at the time of the
Cuban crisis in October 1962 and have not been resumed. Emigration
from Cuba since that time has been sporadic, according to the Immigra-
tion and Naturalization Service.
Approved For Release I 998Lg9 2J_IQd&- D1P_79.$.Q,110OA000100100006-3
 Approved For Relea&97hgl J)~Zi~-:'1 C9At'F DD79S0110OA000100100006-3
Mongolia
1938, prewar and present boundaries; 19-55; and 1957-60: Figures as
of 1. January of these years given in State Central Statistical Board,
National Economy of the Mongolian People's Republic for 40 Years:
Collection of Statistics, Ulan Bator, 1961, p.39.
1945 and 1950: Estimated. Interpolated between the census figure
of 759,200 as of 15 October 1944 and the figures of 759,500 as of
1 January 1947 and 787,800 as of 1 January 1952, from the source given
above.
1956: Estimated. Interpolated between the figure of 831,000 as
of 1. January 1955 and the census figure of 845,500 as of 5 February
1956, both from the source given-above.
1961-63: Estimated. Interpolated between the-figure of 936,900
as of 1 January 1960 and the preliminary census figure of 1,018,800
as of 5 January 1963 (the latter figure is from Unen [Truth], Ulan Bator,
20 January 1963).
1964-80: Projection based on the same average annual rate of in-
crease as obtained by interpolation between the official figure for
1 January 1960 and the census figure for 5 January 1963, or about
28 per 1,000 population. The assumption of a constant rate of popula-
tion. increase is employed in view of the fact that available official
figures on total population and vital rates are not in agreement and
cannot be rationalized with the limited information published thus far.
Yugoslavia
1938, prewar boundaries; 1950; and 1955-63: Savezni Zavod za
Statistiku, Statisticki godisnjak FNRJ, 1964 (Statistical Yearbook of
the Federal Peoples Republic of Yugoslavia, 1964), Belgrade, 1964,
pp. 82 and 83.
1938, present boundaries: US Bureau of the Census, Population
Estimates and :Projections for Selected Countries: 1960 to 19 3,
International :Population Reports, Series P-91, No. 12, 25 April 1962.
1945: Estimated.
1964: United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, February
1965.
1965-80: Projection based on the assumption that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at the 1964 level (gross
reproduction rate = 129), and that there will be no migration.
Approved For Releasec4999 19124-z-GIA-R-MP79S0110OA000100100006-3
 Approved For Relea ~g, RDP79S0110OA000100100006-3
Approved For Release 1999/09/21: CIA-RDP79SO1 1 0OA0001 00100006-3