POPULATION OF THE COMMUNIST COUNTRIES SELECTED YEARS 1938-80

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79S01100A000100090006-5
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 6, 1999
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: April 1, 1964
• Content Type: IR

_irohigiwoosokimived For Release : CIA-RDP79S01100A0001M90006485
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
POPULATION OF THE COMMUNIST COUNTRIES
SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80
EIC SR5?S4
April 1964
11 ,
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON POPULATION AND MANPOWER
S c
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declassification
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP79S01100A000100090006-5
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP79S01100A000100090006-5
WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
Printed and Disseminated
by
Central Intelligence Agency
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP79S01100A000100090006-5
Approved For Relegluiptaft5MWO0A000100090006-5
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
POPULATION OF THE COMMUNIST COUNTRIES
SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80
EIC SR5-S4
April 1964
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON POPULATION AND MANPOWER
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP79S01100A000100090006-5
Approved For RelititafitITA*1t*7931317i1GOA000100090006-5
Introduction
CONTENTS
1. Estimated and
Countries on
2. Estimated and
Countries on
Methodology
Tables
Projected Population of the Communist
1 January, Selected Years, 1938-80 .
Projected Population of the Communist
1 July, Selected Years, 1938-80
Appendix
Page
1
3
7
11
Approved For Release-F41441:14a7SiSEMO0A000100090006-5
Approved For Re A000100090006-5
POPULATION OF THE COMMUNIST COUNTRIES
SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80
Introduction
This report presents estimates and projections of the populations
of the Communist countries for selected years, 1938-80. These esti-
mates and projections, which supersede those published in EIC SR5-S3,
April 1963, CONFIDENTIAL, are basic statistics of the intelligence
community as established formally through the Subcommittee on Popula-
tion and Manpower of the Economic Intelligence Committee (EIC). The
members of the Subcommittee include representatives of the Department
of Commerce, the Department of Defense, the Department of Labor, the
Department of State, and the Central Intelligence Agency. The re-
spective member agencies, in some areas, may have different statistics
to meet individual requirements, but these differences do not affect
the validity of these community-established statistics for general
usage.
Estimates and projections of the total population in each country
for selected years, 1938-80, are shown. in Tables 1 and 2.* The esti-
mates for the USSR, Eastern Europe, Albania, and Yugoslavia are con-
sidered to be more reliable than those for the Far East, Mongolia, and
Cuba. For the USSR, Eastern Europe, Albania, and Yugoslavia, the
estimates either were obtained directly from censuses, yearbooks, and
statistical journals of the countries concerned and from publications
of the United Nations or were derived from these materials. For the
Far East, Mongolia, and Cuba, only fragmentary data are available, and
the methods by which estimates for these countries were made are dis-
cussed in the Appendix. The population projections are based on assump-
tions that are stated in the Appendix.
The over-all classification of this report is CONFIDENTIAL, but the
tables themselves are UNCLASSIFIED.
* Pp. 3 and 7, respectively, below.
Approved For Refeastk=rebt.RIDP7919044110A000100090006-5
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP79S01100A0001000900064
Table 1
Estimated and Projected Population of the Communist Countries on 1 January a/*
Selected Years, 1938-80
Million Persons
Country
Prewar
Boundaries Present Boundaries
1938 1938 1945 1950 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961
Total Communist countries 795 798 818 856 940 959 980 1,000. 1,022
1,041 1,058
USSR 167.0 186.6 175.0 178.5 194.4 197.9 201.4 204.9 208.7 212.3 216.1
Eastern Europe 110.6 93.9 89.0 88.0 92.5 93.4 94.0 94.7 95.6 96.4 97.1
Bulgaria 6.2 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.9
Czechoslovakia 15.3 14.4 14.2 12.3 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.6 13.7
East Germany 25.9 16.5 17.9 18.4 18.0 17.8 17.6 17.4 11.3 17.3 17.2
Hungary 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.3 9.8 9.9 9.8 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.0
Poland 34.5 31.8 25.0 24.6 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.4 28.9 29.4 29.8
Rumania 19.6 15.5 15.7 16.2 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.5
Far East c/ 496 496 532 566 627 642 658 674 691 705 717
Communist China 474 474 508 542 603 618 633 649 665 679 690
North Korea 8.8 8.8 9.2 9.6 8.8 9.1 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.8
North Vietnam 13.6 13.6 14.6 14.6 14.9 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2
Other Communist countries 21.4 21.9 22.2 23.7 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.8
Albania 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6
Cuba 2/ 4.4 4.4 5.0 5.5 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7
Mongolia c/ 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0
Yugoslavia 15.3 15.8 15.3 16.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.5
Total Communist countries 795 798 818 856 940 959 980 1,000
_ 1,022 1,041 1,058
* Footnotes follow on p. 5.
- 3 -
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP79S01100A000100090006-5
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP79S01100A000100090006-5
Table 1
Estimated and Projected Population of the Communist Countries on 1 January a/
Selected Years, 1938-80
(Continued)
Million Persons
Country
Total Communist countries
USSR
Eastern Europe
Bulgaria
Czechoslovakia
East Germany
Hungary
Poland
Rumania
Far East c/
Present Boundaries
1962 1963
1,075 1,091
219.8 223.1
97.6 98.3
8.0
13.8
17.1
10.0
30.1
18.6
8.0
13.9
17.1
10.1
30.5
18.7
729 741
Communist China 701 713
North Korea 11.1 11.5
North Vietnam 16.4 16.8
Other Communist countries
Albania
Cuba c/
Mongolia c/
Yugoslavia
28.2 28.5
1.7
6.8
1.0
18.7
1.7
6.8
1.0
19.0
Total Communist countries 1,075 1,091
1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1975 1980
1,111 1,131 1,150 1,170 .4_,122 1,211 1,231 1,341 1.1L6.3.
226.3 229.3 232.3 235.1 237.8 240.5 243.2 257.2 272.6
99.2 99.9 100.5 101.4 102.0 102.7 103.5 107.6 112.1
8.1
14.0
17.2
10.1
30.9
18.9
8.2
14.1
17.3
10.1
31.2
19.0
8.2
14.2
17.3
10.2
31.5
19.1
8.3
14.3
17.4
10.2
31.9
19.3
8.4
14.4
17.4
10.2
32.2
19.4
8.4
14.6
17.5
10.2
32.5
19.5
8.5
14.7
17.5
10.3
32.9
19.6
8.8
15.4
17.8
10.4
34.9
20.3
9.1
16.o
18.1
10.6
37.3
21.0
756 772 787 803 819 836 853 942 1,041
727 742 757 772 787 803 819 904 998
11.8 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.9 16.0 18.3
17.1 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.6 21.9 24.5
29.0 29.5 29.9 30.3 30.8 31.3
1.8
7.0
1.0
19.2
1.9
7.1
1.1
19.4
1.9
7.2
1.1
19.7
2.0
7.3
1.1
19.9
2.0
7.5
1.2
20.1
2.1
7.6
1.2
20.4
31.7 34.5 37.5
2.2
7.7
1.2
20.6
2.6
8.5
1.4
22.0
3.1
9.4
1.6
23.4
211 1,231 1,3
1
1,111 1,131 1,150 1,170 1,122 41 l_,463
_ _z___
a. For methodology, see the Appendix. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown.
b. For 1945, estimates of the population of the USSR, Eastern Europe, Albania, and Yugoslavia for 1 January are the same as
those for 1 July.
c. Estimates of the population of the Far East, Cuba, and Mongolia are believed to be less reliable than those of other Com-
munist countries.
-5-
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP79S01100A000100090006-5
Approved For Release : CIA-RbP79S01100A0001000900064
Table 2
Estimated and Projected Population of the Communist Countries on 1 July a/*
Selected Years, 1938-80
Million Persons
Prewar
Boundaries Present Boundaries
Country 1938 1938 1945 L:)./ 1950 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961
Total Communist countries 801 804 819 863 950 970 990 1,011 1,033 12.251 i,o66
USSR 168.7 188.5 175.0 180.1 196.1 199.6 203.1 206.8 210.5 214.2 217.9
Eastern Filrope 111.3 94.5 89.0 88.5 92.8 93.8 94.4 95.3 95.9 96.8 97.3
Bulgaria 6.2 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.9
Czechoslovakia 15.3 14.5 14.2 12.4 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8
East Germany 26.1 16.6 17.9 18.4 17.9 17.7 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.1
Hungary 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.8 9.9 9.8 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.0
Poland 34.7 31.9 25.0 24.8 27.2 27.7 28.2 28.7 29.1 29.6 29.9
Rumania 19.8 15.6 15.7 16.3 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.6
Far East c/
499 499 533 571 635 650 666 682 699 712 723
Communist China 476 476 510 547 611 626 641 657 673 685 696
North Korea 8.9 8.9 9.2 9.2 8.9 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.3 10.6 11.0
North Vietnam 13.7 13.7 14.2 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.3
Other Communist countries 21.5 22.0 22.2 23.8 25.8 26.3 26.7 26.9 27.4 27.7 28.1
Albania 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7
Cuba c/ 4.4 4.4 5.0 5.5 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.8
Mongolia 2/ 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1,0
Yugoslavia 15.4 15.9 15.3 16.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.6
Total Communist countries 801 804 819 863 950 970 990
* Footnotes follow on p. 9.
- 7 -
1,011
1,033 1,051 1,066
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP79S01100A000100090006-5
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP79S01100A000100090006-5f
Table 2
Estimated and Projected Population of the Communist Countries on 1 July a/
Selected Years, 1938-80
(Continued)
Million Persons
Country
Total Communist countries
USSR
Eastern Europe
Bulgaria
Czechoslovakia
East Germany
Hungary
Poland
Rumania
Far East c/
Communist China
North Korea
North Vietnam
Other Communist countries
Albania
Cuba c/
Mongolia c/
Yugoslavia
Total Communist countries
Present Boundaries
1962 1963
1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1975 1980
1,083
1,101 1,120 1,140 1,160 121.8O 1,200 1,221 1,242 1,352 1,476
= =
221.4 224.7 227.8 230.8 233.7 236.5 239.2 241.9 244.6 258.7 274.2
98.1 98.8 99.3 100.3 101.0 101.6 102.3 103.2 103.9 108.0 112.5
8.0
13.9
17.1
10.1
30.3
18.7
8.1
13.9
17.2
10.1
30.7
18.8
735 749
707 720
11.3 11.6
16.6 16.9
28.3 28.8
1.7
6.8
1.0
18.8
1.8
6.9
1.0
19.1
198321,101
8.1
14.0
17.2
10.1
31.0
18.9
8.2
14.2
17.3
10.1
31.4
19.1
8.3
14.3
17.3
10.2
31.7
19.2
764 779 795
735 749 764
12.0 12.3 12.6
17.3 17.7 18.1
8.3
14.4
17.4
10.2
32.0
19.3
8.4
14.5
17.4
10.2
32.4
19.4
8.5
14.6
17.5
10.3
32.7
19.6
8.5
14.8
17.5
10.3
33.1
19.7
8.8
15.4
17.8
10.4
35.2
20.4
9.1
16.1
18.1
10.6
37.6
21.0
811 827 844 861 951 1,051
779 795 811 827 913 1,008
13.0 13.4 13.7 14.1 16.2 18.6
18.5 18.9 19.4 19.8 22.2 24.8
29.2 29.7 30.1 30.8 31.1 31.6 32.1 34.7 38.0
1.8
7.0
1.1
19.3
1.9
7.1
1.1
19.6
1.9 2.0
7.3 7.4
1.1 1.2
19.8 20.2
1L 2
120 1,140 1 160 1,180
_ ----
2.1
7.5
1.2
20.3
2.2
7.7
1.2
20.5
1,200 1,221
===== =====
2.2
7.8
1.3
20.8
2.6
8.6
1.4
22.1
3.2
9.5
1.7
23.6
1,242 1,352 1,476
===== =====
a. For methodology, see the Appendix. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown.
b. For 1945, estimates of the population of the USSR, Eastern Europe, Albania, and Yugoslavia for 1 January are the same as
those for 1 July.
c. Estimates of the population of the Far East, Cuba, and Mongolia are believed to be less reliable than those of other Com-
aunist countries.
- 9 -
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP79S01100A000100090006-5
Approved For RefiiiitTe1k:14615.9Tgoli1 00A0001 00090006-5
APPENDIX
METHODOLOGY
The following notes give separately the sources, methods, and
assumptions on which are based the population estimates and projec-
tions for each of the Communist countries. All relevant official
data -- that is, data released by the respective governments -- were
considered and evaluated in making these estimates. For Eastern
Europe, Albania, and Yugoslavia the figures for 1938-63 (except for
19)45, for which see below) are official estimates, official estimates
adjusted to 1 January and 1 July of each year, or official estimates
adjusted to accord with recent censuses.
For the USSR the estimates for 1950-63 are consistent with the
1959 census and with official data on births and deaths for the period.
They are not, however, consistent in every case with official estimates
of the population. The official population estimates imply an unex-
plained residual of -34,000 for 1960, +15,000 for 1961, and +85,000 for
1962 -- a net residual of +66,000 for the 3-year period. Although some
former Polish citizens reportedly were repatriated to Poland and some
Kazakhs reportedly entered the USSR from China during this period, the
residuals could not be specifically ascribed to migration as opposed
to errors in the population registers on which the estimates were based.
However, even if the residual is ascribed entirely to migration, the
net effect would be to increase the population figures for 1963 and
later by not more than 0.1 million.
A detailed analysis of the new Soviet life tables supported the
contention reported in EIC SR5-S3, April 1963, that Soviet death rates
at the older ages are abnormally law. Three population projection
models based on different explanations of the low death rates at the
older ages were prepared. Model I accepted the official Soviet life
tables without change; model 2 assumed that both the population and the
death statistics are affected by misstatement of age but that over-all
death registration is essentially complete; model 3 assumed that death
registration at the older ages is incomplete. A new age-sex distribu-
tion for the population 4o years of age and over was constructed for
model 2. This distribution assumed that a significant number of persons
4o years of age and over reported themselves as being older than they
were and that this proportion increased with age. The distribution was
contrived to permit the substitution of US death rates at the older
ages for the lower Soviet death rates without changing the total number
of deaths. The projections in model 3 assumed that the death rates by
age used for model 2 (that is, official Soviet death rates at the younger
ages and US death rates at the older ages) were the correct ones for the
USSR but that the population distribution by age and sex from the 1959
census was correct as reported and should not be adjusted for biases in
Approved For Relt,asti-VCIA)441)P7S601/1 00A0001 00090006-5
Approved g512-Fideiipe-61-X:kit'INS01100A000100090006-5
age reporting. This combination of assumptions yielded larger numbers
of deaths at the older ages than did the official death rates and im-
plied that underregistration of deaths amounted to 7.7 percent of the
total number of deaths during 1959. The differences among the popula-
tion projections for 1980 based on the three models are quite small
for the total population (1.2 million) and for the population of "able-
bodied" ages. They are more significant for the older ages, however,
and those concerned with the older population might wish to give further
consideration to the differences among the models. Projections generated
by model 1, which accepts the official life tables and the age-sex dis-
tribution-from the 1959 census, were selected for inclusion in this
report.
For the Far East, Mongolia, and Cuba, official data are seldom
available in sufficient quantity or detail to permit careful analysis,
and those that have been released often manifest unaccountable internal
inconsistencies. In the case of Communist China, for example, the pop-
ulation figures officially reported for 1949-58 are inconsistent with
birth and death rates also reported for these years and with age and sex
data from the 1953 census. The estimates and projections for China are
based on the total population reported in the 1953 census and on rates
of increase that are consistent with China's imperfectly known demo-
graphic history. Official data for North Vietnam and North Korea are
of even more uncertain reliability, and the background information
needed to evaluate and adjust the figures is not available. An allow-
ance of as much as plus or minus 10 percent error in the estimates for
these three countries would certainly not be excessive.
For the USSR, Eastern Europe, Albania, and Yugoslavia, the esti-
mates for 1945 are less reliable than those for other years because
birth and death rates for the war years and early postwar years have
not been reported and because reliable data on migration during these
years are not available.
USSR
1938, prewar and present boundaries; 1950; and 1955-59: Based on
Tsentral'noye Statisticheskoye Upravleniye pri Sovete Ministrov SSSR,
Vestnik statistiki (Statistical Herald), No. 11, 1963, p. 93.
1945: Estimated.
1960-63: Derived by adding the reported natural increase to the
population estimate for 1 January 1959. No allowance was made for
migration. The figures shown are the same as the official estimates,
rounded to the nearest 0.1 million, for 1 January 1960, 1961, and 1963.
- 12 -
Approved EbtRIelleast-e11ik-ROP79S01100A000100090006-5
Approved For ReigiA-':-drA=M5P7ristrii00A000100090006-5
They differ by 0.1 million or 0.2 million from the following official
estimates:
Date
Population
(Million Persons)
1 July 1960
214.4
1 July 1961
218.0
1 January 1962
219.7
1 July 1962
221.5
1 July 1963
224.8
1964-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at a level close to that
for 1963 (gross reproduction rate = 125), and that there will be no
migration. The figures shown are based on the acceptance of the offi-
cial Soviet life tables.
Eastern Europe
Bulgaria
1938, prewar boundaries; 1945; 1950; and 1955-61: Tsentralno
Statistichesko Upravleniye pri Ministerskiya Suvet, Statisticheski
godishnik na Narodna Republika Bulgaria z 1962 (Statistical Yearbook
of the Bulgarian People's Republic, 1962), Sofia, 1962, p. 18.
1938, present boundaries: US Bureau of the Census, Population
Estimates and Projections for Selected Countries, 1960 to 1963,
International Population Reports, Series P-91, No. 12, Washington, D.C.,
25 April 1962.
1962: United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, February
196)-.
1963: Estimate based on the assumption that the levels of fer-
tility and mortality established for 1962 would remain in effect
during 1963.
1964-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at a level close to that
for 1963 (gross renroduction rate = 105), and that there will be no
migration.
- 13 -
Approved For Release?r-CIA-R-EDMSO-t100A000100090006-5
Approved FO-AkNelFe-aiit:EdiAT-ii1515SS01100A000100090006-5
Czechoslovakia
1938, prewar boundaries: Publication No. 74 of the Social Institute
of the Czechoslovak Republic, Twenty Years of Social Welfare in the
Czechoslovak Republic, 1938,_p. 9.
1938, present boundaries; 1945; 1950; and 1955-59: Ustredni Komise
Lidove Kontroly a Statistiky, Statisticka rocenka Ceskoslovenske Socialis-
ticke Republiky, 1961 (Statistical Yearbook of the Czechoslovak Socialist
Republic, 1961), Prague, 1961, p. 78. The figures for 1950-59 have been
adjusted to accord with the results of the 1961 census.
1960-62: Ustredni Komise Lidove Kontroly a Statistiky, Statisticka
rocenka Ceskoslovenske Socialisticke RepublikyL_L2L (Statistical Year-
book of the Czechoslovak Socialist Republic, 1963), Prague, 1963, p. 83.
1963: Ustredni Komise Lidove Kontroly a Statistiky, Statisticke
zpravy (Statistical Reports), No. 3, 1963, p. 320.
1964-80: Projection based on the as-sumptions that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at a level close to that
for 1963 (gross reproduction rate = 120), and that there will be no
migration.
East Germany
1938, prewar boundaries: This figure represents the population of
the present territory of East Germany plus the former German Territory
now under Polish and Soviet administration. The number, shown solely
for convenience, was derived by subtracting the 1938 population of the
area that is now West Germany plus West Berlin from the 1938 population
of prewar Germany.
1938, present boundaries; 1950; and 1955-63: Staatliche Zentral-
verwaltung fuer Statistik, Statistisches Jahrbuch der Deutschen
Demokratischen Republik 1963 (Statistical Yearbook of the German
Democratic Republic, 1963), Berlin, 1963, pp. 476 and 482.
1945: Estimated on the basis of a population of 18,056,600 _re-
ported for midyear 1946 (ibid., p. 482), on reported births and deaths
in 1946, and on an adjustment for unrecorded migration from Poland.
1964-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at a level close to that
for 1963 (gross reproduction rate = 120), and that there will be no
migration.
- 14 -
Approved Fa-Re1etr?eD.-C-Ik-ROPTOS01100A000100090006-5
Approved For RefeasTelbiAtirt9TS8+100A000100090006-5
Hungary
1938, prewar and present boundaries; 1950; and 1955-63: Kozponti
Statisztikai Hivatal, Statisztikai evkonyv, 1962 (Statistical Year-
book, 1962), Budapest, 1963, p. 3.
1945: U.S Bureau of the Census, The Population of Hungary, by
Jacob S. Siegel, International Population Statistics Reports, P-90,
No. 9, 1958, Table 6. This is not an official figure; it represents
an adjustment to account for postwar migrations more carefully than
do the official data.
1964-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at a level close to that
for 1963 (gross reproduction rate = 85), and that there will be no
migration.
Poland
1938, prewar boundaries: United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of
Statistics, January 1958.
1938, present boundaries: Based on an officially reported popula-
tion of 32.1 million for 1 January 1939 and on a rate of natural in-
crease of 10.7 persons per 1,000 population reported for 1938.
1945: Estimated. It is not known precisely what population move-
ments occurred in Poland between 1945 and the date of the census in
February 1946. The population enumerated in 1946 was 23.9 million.
The Statistical Yearbook of Poland, 1947 (pp. 28-30) gives some data
on the movement of population from the west into Poland and between
Poland and areas of the USSR. Data on the transfer of Germans from
Poland, on the other hand, begin only in 1946. If only the data that
are available are used, the estimate of Poland's midyear 1945 popula-
tion would be approximately 23 million. This figure should be adjusted,
however, to account for the probable number of Germans who left Poland
between 1 July 1945 and February 1946 -- a number estimated at about
2 million persons. The figure of 25.0 million used here reflects that
adjustment.
1950 and 1955-62: Glowny Urzad Statystyczny, Maly rocznik
statystyczny, 1963 (Concise Statistical Yearbook, 1963), Warsaw, 1963,
p. 8. The figures for 1955-60 have been adjusted to accord with the
results of the 1960 census.
1963: Glowny Urzad Statystyczny, Biuletyn statystyczny (Statis-
tical Bulletin), No. 9, 1963, p. 6.
-15-
Approved For Release-CIA4RDIRI9S01-100A000100090006-5
Approved F81-?R161;aTslibilATRT-D.Ort-9S01100A000100090006-5
1964-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at a level close to that
for 1963 (gross reproduction rate = 125), and that there will be no
migration.
Rumania
1938, prewar boundaries: Institutul Central de Statistica, Commu-
nicari statistice (Statistical Reports), No. 18, 15 August 1947, p. 7.
1938, present boundaries; 1945; 1950; and 1955-62: Directia Cen-
trala de Statistica, Anuarul statistic al R.P.R.1 6 (Statistical
Yearbook of the Rumanian People's Republic, 19 3), Bucharest, 1963,
p. 90.
1963: Based on birth and death rates reported in Directia Centrala
de Statistica, Buletin statistic trimestrial (Quarterly Statistical
Bulletin), No. 2, 1963, p. 5, and on the reported population for
mid-1962.
1964-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at a level close to that
for 1963 (gross reproduction rate - 95), and that there will be no
migration.
Far East
Communist China
1938, prewar and present boundaries; 1945; 1950; and 1955-58:
Estimated, with the census of 30 June 1953 used as the base. Because
of inconsistencies between the officially announced population totals
and officially announced birth and death rates, the population esti-
mates were based on the following assumed average annual vital rates
(per 1,000 population):
Rate
Period Birth Rate Death Rate of Increase
1938-48
42.5
32.5
10.0
1948-53
45.1
26.0
19.1
1953-58
43.8
19.7
24.1
It was assumed that the actual birth rate was 45.0 per 1,000 before
1948 but that infanticide lowered the effective birth rate to 42.5.
-16-
Approved Fcbffkielbasle-01-A-ROP179S01100A000100090006-5
Approved For Reie-igi-:FCIPP4Citif9b1W100A000100090006-5
1959-64: Projection based on the assumption that the natural in-
crease fell to 15.0 per 1,000 population in 1961 as a result of higher
mortality caused by acute food shortages in many areas since 1958 and
that it then rose to 20.0 per 1,000 population in 1964 as a result of
the partial recovery of agriculture since 1961. However, the demo-
graphic effect of these food shortages cannot now be evaluated ade-
quately.
1965-80: Projection based on the assumptions that the average
annual rate of increase will remain at 20.0 per 1,000 population and
that there will be no significant migration. The assumption as to
the rate of increase is arbitrary and does not involve specific con-
clusions about underlying demographic and economic developments during
this period.
North Korea
1938, prewar and present boundaries: Estimated. Based on the
censuses of 1935 and 1940.
1945: Estimated. Interpolated between the figure of 9,170,000
from the census of 1 October 1944 and an official figure of 9,257,000
as of 1 January 1947 reported in Central Statistical Board,. Statistical
Returns of the National Econo of the Democratic Peo les Re ublic of
Korea, Foreign Languages Publishing House, Pyongyang, 19.1.
4 1950 and 1955-61: Reported and estimated. Based on the following
official figures from the source given above:
Date
Population
1 January 1950
9,622,000
1 December 1953
8,491,000
1 September 1956
9,359,000
1 December 1959
10,392,000
1 January 1961
10,789,000
Interpolations between these figures allow for (1) substantial net out-
migration during the years 1949-53, sufficient to exceed the assumed
natural increase for these years, and (2) rising natural increase rates
and a net in-migration of from 25,000 to 150,000 persons for various
years, 1954-61.
1962-80: Projection based on the assumptions (1) that a rising
trend of natural increase levels off at 27.5 per 1,000 population by
1962 and will remain constant thereafter and (2) that migration ceases
to be a significant factor after 1962. The assumption of a constant
rate of increase after 1962 is arbitrary and does not involve a commit-
ment to specific future trends in demographic or economic development.
- 17 -
Approved For Reteage-F0A-RDPV3S0.1100A000100090006-5
Approved Fccii9Wefelitdik-libis9S01100A000100090006-5
North Vietnam
1938, prewar and present boundaries; 1945; 1950; and 1955-59:
Estimated. -Backward projection from the 1960 census based on (1) the
following schedule of assumed rates of natural increase (per 1,000
population):
Period
Rate
of Increase
1935-39
12.5
1940-44
15.0
1945-49
15.0
1950-54
12.5
1955-60
17.5
and on (2) an assumed loss of 1,500,000 persons during the famine of
1944-45, a military loss of about 200,000 males during 1939-54, a
net out-migration of 900,000 during 1954-55, and the execution of
100,000 landlords during 1955-56.
1960: Estimated on the basis of the census figure of 15,916,955
as of 1 March 1960.
1961-80: Projection based on the assumptions (1) that the average
annual rate of natural increase will rise from 17.5 per 1,000 population
in 1960 to 22.5 per 1,000 population by 1965 and remain constant at that
level through 1980 and (2) that there will be no migration. The assump-
tion of a constant rate of increase after 1965 is arbitrary and does not
involve a commitment to specific future trends in demographic or economic
development.
Other Communist Countries
Albania
1938, prewar and present boundaries; 1945; 1950; and 1955-59:
Drejtoria e Statistikes, Anuari (Statis-
tical Yearbook of the Albanian People's Republic, 1960), Tirana, 1960,
P. 53.
1960-62: United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, February
1964.
-18-
Approved FbPRIe1east-CTA-REPP79S01100A000100090006-5
Approved For Reiei1VitrA:k5PWS6-1/4100A000100090006-5
1963-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at the level for 1955-61
(gross reproduction rate = 330), and that there will be no migration.
Cuba
1938, prewar and present boundaries; 1945; 1950; and 1955-58:
United Nations, Demographic Yearbook, 1960, New York, 1960.
1959-80: Although total population figures through midyear 1963
have been published by the United Nations, they have not been accepted,
because they imply no emigration. Instead, the population since 1959
has been based on a projection in which it was assumed that mortality
will remain constant, that fertility will remain constant (gross re-
production rate = 200), and that migration will be negligible after
1962. Net out-migration for the period 1959-62 was assumed to be
75,000 annually.
The birth and death rates in the mid-1950's were estimated as 33
and 13 per 1,000 population, respectively (Consejo Nacional de Economia,
Estimados de la poblacion de Cuba para Enero 28 de 1959 [Estimates of
the Population of Cuba for 28 January 1959], Havana,-1959). A gross
reproduction rate of 200 was established as consistent with this birth
rate. The age-specific and sex-specific mortality rates from the Life
Tables for Negroes in the United States, 1939-41, established as con-
sistent with a death rate of 13 per 1,000 population, was assumed to
hold for Cuba.
The assumption that emigration was 75,000 annually for the period
1959-62 is based, in part, on information from the US Immigration and
Naturalization Service that about 1,300 to 1,400 Cubans came to the US
each week. The number going to other countries is unknown. Regular
airline flights between Cuba and the US were stopped at the time of the
Cuban crisis in October 1962 and.have not been resumed. Emigration
from Cuba since that time has been sporadic, according to the Immigra-
tion and Naturalization Service.
Mongolia
1938, prewar and present boundaries; 1955; and 1957-60: Figures
as of 1 January of these years given in State Central Statistical
Board, National Economy of the Mongolian People's Republic for 40
Years: Collection of Statistics, Ulan Bator, 1961, p. 39.
1945 and 1950: Estimated. Interpolated between the census figure
of q59,200 as of 15 October 1944 and the figures of 759,500 as of
1 January 1947 and 787,800 as of 1 January 1952, from the source given
above.
-19-
Approved For Releth?eitICIADRDP-719301-S00A000100090006-5
Approved Fco-r?141Felig-:ECWIibi519S01100A000100090006-5
1956: Estimated. Interpolated between the figure of 831,000 as of
1 January 1955 and the census figure of 845,500 as of 5 February 1956,
both from the source given above.
1961-63: Estimated. Interpolated between the figure,of 936,900
as of 1 January 1960 and the preliminary census figure of 1,018,800
as of 5 January 1963 (the latter figure is from Unen [Truth], Ulan
Bator, 20 January 1963).
1964-80: Projection based on the same average annual rate of in-
crease as obtained by interpolation between the official figure for
1 January 1960 and the census figure for 5 January 1963, or about 28
per 1,000 population. The assumption of a constant rate of population
increase is employed in view of the fact that available official fig-
ures on total population and vital rates are not in agreement and
cannot be rationalized with the limited information published thus far.
Yugoslavia
1938, prewar boundaries; 1950; and 1955-62: Savezni Zavod za
Statistiku, Statisticki godisnjak PNRJt 1963 (Statistical Yearbook
of the Federal People's Republic of Yugoslavia, 1963), Belgrade,
1963, p. 81.
1938, present boundaries: US Bureau of the Census, Population
Estimates and Projections for Selected Countries: 1960 to 1963, Inter-
12, Washington, D.C.,
national Population Reports, Series
25 April 1962.
1945: Estimated.
P-91, No.
1963: United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, February
1964.
1964-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at a level close to that
for 1963 (gross reproduction rate = 130), and that there will be no
migration.
-20
Approved Fdiitelfelrib?-etA=RiDia79S01100A000100090006-5
ApproveAIfeRftMN-fl.kEDP79S01100A000100090006-5
.-EOKFtet*EllftAt
Approved For Release : CIA-RDP79S01100A000100090006-5