POPULATION OF THE COUNTRIES OF THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80

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• Publication Date: April 1, 1962
• Content Type: IR

ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
No
POPULATION OF THE COUNTRIES
OF THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
SELECTED YEARS, 1938 - 80
EIC SR5-S2
April 1962
=NT NO. ____
(','!A S. CH NflFn
r?!_') Fit '! P)V DATE:
ACUTH: FHR 70-2
11 17!16 43-nPAEWER:00
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON POPULATION AND MANPOWER
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EXCLUDED FROM AUTOMATIC DOWN-
GRADING AND DECLASSIFICATION
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This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
Printed and Disseminated by the
Central Intelligence Agency
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CONfDE MAL-
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
POPULATION OF THE COUNTRIES
OF THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
SELECTED YEARS, 1938 - 80
EIC 5115- 52
April 1962
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON POPULATION AND MANPOWER
CONFIDENTIAL
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CONTENTS
Page
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Tables
1. Estimated Population of the Countries of the Sino-
Soviet Bloc on 1 January, Selected Years, 1938-61 . . . 3
2. Estimated Population of the Countries of the Sino-
Soviet Bloc on 1 July, Selected Years, 1938-61 . . . . . 5
3. Projected Population of the Countries of the Sino-
Soviet Bloc on 1 January, Selected Years, 1962-80 . . . 7
4. Projected Population of the Countries of the Sino-
Soviet Bloc on 1 July, Selected Years, 1962-80 . . . . . 9
Appendix
Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
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POPULATION OF THE COUNTRIES OF THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
SELECTED YEARS, 1938-80
This report presents population estimates and projections for
the countries of the Sino-Soviet Bloc for selected years, 1938-80.
These estimates and projections, which supersede those published in
EIC SR5-Sl, June 1961, CONFIDENTIAL, are basic statistics of the
intelligence community as established formally through the Subcom-
mittee on Population and Manpower of the Economic Intelligence Com-
mittee (EIC). The members of the Subcommittee include representatives
of the Department of the Air Force, the Department of the Army, the
Department of Commerce, the Department of Labor, the Department of
State, and the Central Intelligence Agency. The respective member
agencies, in some areas, may have different statistics to meet indi-
vidual requirements, but these differences do not affect the validity
of these community-established statistics for general usage.
Estimates of the total population in each country for selected
years, 1938-61, are shown in Tables 1 and 2, and projections for
selected years, 1962-80, are shown in Tables 3 and 4. The estimates
for the USSR and the European Satellites are considered to be more
reliable than those for the Asian Communist countries. For the USSR
and the European Satellites the estimates either were obtained di-
rectly from censuses, yearbooks, and statistical journals of the
countries concerned and from publications of the United Nations or
were derived from these materials. For the Asian countries, only
fragmentary data are available, and the methods by which estimates
for these countries were made are discussed in the Appendix. The
population projections shown in Tables 3 and 4 are based on assump-
tions that are stated in the Appendix.
The over-all classification of this report is CONFIDENTIAL, but
the tables are UNCLASSIFIED.
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Estimated Population of the Countries of the Sino-Soviet Bloc on 1 January J
Selected Years, 1938-61
Prewar
Boundaries
Country
1938
1938
1945 ,
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
Total Sino-Soviet Bloc
775
782
799
837
851
866
882
899
917
936
956
977
997
1,018
1,038
USSR
166.7
189.7
176.0
181.0
183.8
186.7
189.5
192.4
195.5
198.6
201.9
205.3
208.7
212.2
215.7
European Satellites
111.6
94.9
90.1
89.2
90.2
91.0
92.0
92.8
93.9
94.9
95.5
96.3
97.1
97.9
98.7
Albania
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
Bulgaria
6.2
6.6
6.9
7.2
7.3
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.8
7.8
7.9
Czechoslovakia
15.3
14.4
14.2
12.3
12.5
12.6
12.8
12.9
13.0
13.2
13.3
13.4
13.5
13.6
13.7
East Germany
25.9
16.5
17.9
18.4
18.4
18.4
18.3
18.1
18.0
17.8
17.6
17.4
17.3
17.3
17.2
Hungary
9.1
9.1
9.3
9.3
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.7
9.8
9.9
9.8
9.9
9.9
10.0
10.0
Poland
34.5
31.8
25.0
24.6
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.6
28.1
28.5
29.0
29.3
29.8
Rumania
19.6
15.5
15.7
16.2
16.4
16.5
16.7
16.9
17.2
17.5
17.7
17.9
18.1
18.3
18.5
Asian Communist countries c/
497
497
533
567
577
589
601
614
628
643
658
675
692
708
724
Communist China
474
474
508
542
552
564
576
589
603
618
633
649
665
681
696
North Korea
8.8
8.8
9.2
9.6
9.3
8.8
8.6
8.7
8.9
9.2
9.5
9.8
10.1
10.4
10.8
North Vietnam
13.6
13.6
14.6
14.6
14.8
15.0
15.2
15.4
14.9
14.9
15.1
15.3
15.6
15.9
16.2
Mongolia
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
Total Sino-Soviet Bloc 775 782 799 837 851 866 882 899 917 936 956 977 997 1,018 1,038
a. For methodology, see the Appendix. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown.
b. Estimates of the population of the USSR and the European Satellites for 1 January are the same as those for 1 July.
c. Estimates of the population of the Asian Communist countries are believed to be less reliable than those of other Bloc countries.
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UNCLASSIFIED
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UNCLA.SSIFIE.D
Estimated Population of the Countries of the Sino-Soviet Bloc on 1 July
Selected Years, 1938-61
Prewar
Boundaries
Present Boundaries
1938
1938
1945 J
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
Total Sino-Soviet Bloc
780
786
8oo
844
858
874
891
908
927
947
966
987
1,009
1,029
1,047
USSR
168.5
191.7
176.0
182.4
185.2
188.1
190.9
193.9
197.0
200.3
203.5
207.0
210.5
214.0
217.5
European Satellites
112.3
95.5
90.1
89.7
90.6
91.5
92.3
93.3
94.3
.95.2
96.1
96.9
97.8
98.3
99.1
Albania
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
Bulgaria
6.2
6.7
6.9
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.7
7.8
7.9
7.9
Czechoslovakia
15.3
14.5
14.2
12.4
-12.5
12.7
12.8
13.0
13.1
13.2
13.4
13.5
13.6
13.7'
13.8
East Germany
26.1
16.6
17.9
18.4
18.4
18.3
18.2
18.1
17.9
17.7
17.5
17.4
17.3
17.2
17.1
Hungary
9.2
9.2
9.3
9.3
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.7
9.8
9.9
9.9
9.9
10.0
10.0
10.0
Poland
34.7
31.9
25.0
24.8
25.3
25.8
26.3
26.8
27.3
27.8
28.3
28.8
29.3
29.5
30.0
Rumania
19.8
15.6
15.7
16.3
16.5
16.6
16.8
17.0
17.3
17.6
17.8
18.1
18.2
18.4
18.6
Asian Communist countries 2/
499
499
534
572
583
594
608
621
636
651
667
683
701
716
730
Communist China
476
476
510
547
558
570
583
596
611
626
641
657
674
689
702
North Korea
8.9
8.9
9.2
9.6
8.9
8.6
8.6
8.7
9.0
9.3
9.7
10.0
10.3
10.6
11.0
North Vietnam
13.7
13.7
14.2
14.7
14.9
15.1
15.3
15.2
14.9
15.0
15.2
15.4
15.7
16.o
16.3
Mongolia
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
780 786 800 844 858 874 891 908 927 947 966 987 1,009 1,029 1,047
a. For methodology, see the Appendix. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown.
b. Estimates of the population of the USSR and the European Satellites for 1 July are the same as those for 1 January.
c. Estimates of the population of the Asian Communist countries are believed to be less reliable than those of other Bloc countries.
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UNCLASSIFIED
Table 3
Projected Population of the Countries of the Sino-Soviet Bloc on 1 January
Selected Years, 1962-80
Country 1962 1963 1964 1965 1970 1975 1980
Total Sino-Soviet Bloc 1,057 1,076 1,095 1,115 1,218 1,331 1,453
USSR
219.2
222.6
226.0
229.4
245.6
261.8
278.9
European Satellites
99.6
100.3
101.4
102.3
106.7
111.7
117.1
Albania
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.6
3.0
Bulgaria
8.0
8.0
8.1
8.2
8.5
8.8
9.1
8
Czechoslovakia
13.8
13.9
14.0
14.1
14.6
15.2
15.
East Germany
17.1
17.2
17.3
17.3
17.5
17.7
17.9
Hungary
10.1
10.1
10.2
10.2
10.5
10.7
10.9
Poland
30.2
30.6
31.0
31.4
33.5
36.0
38.8
21
6
Rumania
18.7
18.8
19.0
19.2
19.9
20.7
.
Asian Communist countries
738
753
768
784
866
957
1,057
Communist China
710
724
738
753
831
918
6
1,013
18
North Korea
11.1
11.5
11.8
12.1
13.9
.0
1
.3
North Vietnam
16.4
16.8
17.1
17.5
19.6
21.9
24.5
6
Mongolia
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.
Total Sino-Soviet Bloc 1,057 1,076 1,095 1,115 1,218 1,331 1,453
a. For methodology, see the Appendix. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals
shown.
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UNCLASSIFIED
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Table 4
Projected Population of the Countries of the Sino-Soviet Bloc on 1 July a/
Selected Years, 1962-80
Country
Total Sino-Soviet Bloc
USSR
European Satellites
Albania
Bulgaria
Czechoslovakia
East Germany
Hungary
Poland
Rumania
6
63
1
1964
1965
1970
1975
1980
2
19
9
1,067
1,086
1,105
1,125
1,229
1,343
1,467
220.9
224.3
227.7
231.1
247.2
263.4
280.7
100.1
100.9
101.8.
102.6
107.1
112.3
118.0
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.6
3.1
8.0
8.1
8.1
8.2
8.5
8.9
9.2
13.9
14.0
14.1
14.1
14.7
15.3
15.9
17.2
17.2
17.3
17.3
17.5
17.7
18.0
0
10.1
10.1
10.2
10.2
10.5
10.7
11.
30.4
30.8
31.2
31.6
33.7
36.3
39.1
18.8
18.9
19.1
19.3
20.0
20.8
21.7
Asian Communist countries
746
760
775
791
875
967
1,068
Communist China
717
731
745
760
840
4
927
2
16
1,023
6
18
North Korea
11.3
11.6
12.0
12.3
.1
1
.
2
2
.
8
24
North Vietnam
16.6
16.9
17.3
17.7
19.8
.
2
4
.
6
1
Mongolia
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.
.
Total Sino-Soviet Bloc 1,067 1,086 1,105 1,125 1,229 1,343 1,467
a. For methodology, see the Appendix. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals
shown.
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UNCLASSIFIED
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C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
APPENDIX
METHODOLOGY
The following notes give separately the sources, methods, and assump-
tions on which are based the population estimates and projections for
each country of the Sino-Soviet Bloc as shown in Tables 1 through 4. All
relevant official data -- that is, data released by the respective gov-
ernments -- were considered and evaluated in making these estimates. For
the European Satellites the estimates for 1938-59 (except for 1945, for
which see below) are official data or official data adjusted to 1 Jan-
uary and 1 July of each year. For the USSR the estimates for these years
are based on data and interpolations from the censuses of 1939 and 1959.
For the Asian Communist countries, official data either are not avail-
able in detail or are not reliable. In Communist China, for example, the
population figures officially reported for 1949-58 are inconsistent with
birth and death rates also reported for these years and with age and sex
data from the census of 1953. The estimates and projections for China
shown in Tables 1 through 4 are based on the total population reported
in the 1953 census and on assumed rates of increase that are consistent
with China's demographic history. It should be noted, however, that com-
petent demographers question the accuracy of the 1953 census and have made
estimates that differ by as much as 20 million persons (about 3 percent)
from the estimates presented here.
For all countries the estimates for 1945 are less reliable than those
for other years because birth and death rates for the war years and early
postwar years have not been reported and because reliable data on migration
during these years are not available.
1938, prewar boundaries: US Bureau of the Census, Population Esti-
mates and Projections for Selected Countries 1955 to 1959, International
Population Reports, Series P-91, No. 14, 21 October 1957.
1938, postwar boundaries: Based on a 1939 estimate of 190.7 million
reported in Tsentral'noye Statisticheskoye Upravleniye pri Sovete Mini-
strov SSSR, Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 1959 godu, statisticheskiy yezhe-
godnik (The National Economy of the USSR in 1959, a Statistical Yearbook),
Moscow, 1960, p. 9. This figure is stated to be as of 17 January 1939
and applies to the prewar territory plus Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the
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territory gained from Rumania, and the net territory gained from Poland.
Presumably excluded is the population in the territories which were ac-
quired from Finland, Germany, Czechoslovakia, Japan, and Mongolia. About
3 million persons lived in these territories in 1939.
19+5: Estimated.
1950-59: Estimated. The census of 15 January 1959 was used as the
base. Officially reported birth rates for the period were accepted, but
reported death rates were adjusted upward by about 15 percent because age-
specific mortality rates for 1958.were so low as to suggest under-re is-
tration of deaths, particularly in the older age groups. Migration (which
was small) was disregarded.
1960-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mortality will de-
cline, that fertility will remain at the 1958 level (gross reproduction
rate = 138), and that -there will be no migration. The figures do not
agree with the following official Soviet estimates:
Date
Population
(Million Persons)
1
January 1960
212.3
1
July 1960
214. 4
1
January 1961
216.0
1
July 1961
218.0
1
January 1962
220.0
These differences (of from 0.1 million to 0.8 million) stem mainly from
the assumption of somewhat higher death rates than those officially re-
ported.
European Satellites
1938: United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, January 1958.
19+5 and 1950-59: United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics,
March 1961.
1960-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at the 1950-54 level
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(gross reproduction rate = 250), and that there will be no migration.
The population on which the projection is based is consistent with
the preliminary total of 1,625,000 for the census of 2 October 1960.
Bulgaria
1938, prewar boundaries; 19-5; and 1950-60: Tsentralno Statisti-
chesko Upravleniye pri Ministerskiya Suvet, Statisticheski godishnik na
Narodna Republika Bulgariya 1960 (Statistical Yearbook for the Bul-
garian People's Republic, 19 0 , Sofia, 1960, p. 18.
1938, postwar boundaries: US Bureau of the Census, Population Esti-
mates and Projections for Selected Countries 1955 to 1959, International
Population Reports, Series P-91, No. , 21 October 1957.
1961-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mortality will de-
cline, that fertility will remain constant at the 1959 level (gross re-
production rate = 107), and that there will be no migration.
Czechoslovakia
1938, prewar boundaries: Publication No. 74 of the Social Institute
of the Czechoslovak Republic, Twenty Years of Social Welfare in the
Czechoslovak Republic (1938), p. 9?
1938, postwar boundaries; 19+5; and 1950-59: Statni Urad Statisticky,
Statisticka rocenka Re ubliky Ceskoslovenske 1960 (Statistical Yearbook
of the Czechoslovak Republic, 19 O), Prague, 19.0, pp. 56 and 62. The
figures shown for 1950 to 1960 have not been revised to accord with the
results of the 1961 census.
1960-61: Based on Statni Urad Statisticky, Statisticke zpravy (Sta-
tistical Reports), Nos. 10-12, 1961. The figures shown are'consistent
with the 1 March 1961 census.
1962-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at the 1960 level (gross
reproduction rate = 115), and that there will be no migration.
East Germany
1938, prewar boundaries: This figure represents the population of
the present territory of East Germany plus the former German territory
now under Polish and Soviet administration. The number, shown solely
for convenience, was derived by subtracting the 1938 population of the
area that is now West Germany plus West Berlin from the 1938 population
of prewar Germany.
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1938, postwar boundaries, and 1950-60: Staatliche Zentralverwaltung
fuer Statistik, Statistisches Jahrbuch der Deutschen Demokratischen
Republik, 1959 (Statistical Yearbook of the German Democratic Republic,
1959 ). Berlin, 1960, pp. 26 and 38.
1945: Estimated on the basis of a population of 18,057,000 reported
for midyear 1946 (ibid., p. 17), on reported births and deaths in 1946,
and on an adjustment for unrecorded migration from Poland.
1961: The 1 January figure was from Staatliche Zentralverwaltung
fuer Statistik, Statistisches Jahrbuch der Deutschen Demokratischen
Republik, 1960/61 Statistical Yearbook of the German Democratic Republic,
19 0 1 , Berlin, 1961, pp. 17 and 18. It was assumed that the net number
of emigrants totaled 75,000 during the first half of 1961 and 38,000 be-
tween 1 July and 13 August.
1962-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mortality will de-
cline, that fertility will remain constant at the 1960 level (gross re-
production rate = 115), and that migration will be negligible after
13 August 1961.
Hungary
1938 and 1950-60: Kozponti Statisztikai Hivatal, Magyarorszag
nepesedese, 1959 (Hungarian Demography, 1959), Budapest, 1961,
1945: US Bureau of the Census, The Population of Hungary, by
Jacob S. Siegel, International Population Statistics Reports, P-90,
No. 9, 1958, Table 6. The figure for 1945 is not an official figure
but was adjusted to account for postwar migrations more carefully than
do the official data.
1961: United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, February 1962.
1962-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at the 1959 level (gross
reproduction rate = 100), and that there will be no migration.
Poland
1938, prewar boundaries: United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of
Statistics, January 1958.
1938, postwar boundaries: Based on an officially reported popu-
lation of 32.1 million for 1 January 1939 and on a rate of natural
increase of 10.7 persons per 1,000 population reported for 1938.
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1945: Estimated. It is not known precisely what population movements
occurred in Poland between 1945 and the date of the census in February
1946. The population enumerated in 1946 was 23.9 million. The Statis-
tical Yearbook of Poland, 1947 (pp. 28-30) gives some data on the move-
ment of population from the west into Poland and between Poland and
areas of the USSR. Data on the transfer of Germans from Poland, on the
other hand, begin only in 1946. If only the data that are available are
utilized, the estimate of Poland's midyear 1945 population would be ap-
proximately 23 million. This figure should be adjusted, however, to ac-
count for the probable number of Germans who left Poland between 1 July
1945 and February 1946 -- a number estimated at about 2 million persons.
The figure of 25.0 million used here reflects that adjustment.
1950-60: Glowny Urzad Statystcyczny Polskiej Rzeczypospolitej Ludowej,
Rocznik Statystyczny, 1960 (Statistical Yearbook,. 1960), p. 13.
The preliminary results of the census of 6 December 1960 show a total
population of 29,731,000. The estimate for 30 September 1960 (based on
population registration) was reported to be 29,807,000 (Biuletyn statys-
tyczny [Statistical Bulletin], No. 12, 1960, p. 7). Projection of this
population to 6 December yields an estimate of 29,872,000 (141,000 more
than the preliminary census total). The estimates for 1960 were adjusted
to agree with the 1961 census, but those for 1959 and earlier are con-
sistent with the estimate for 30 September and have not been adjusted to
reflect the discrepancy between this estimate and the census total.
1961: Glowny Urzad Statystyczny, Biuletyn statystyczny (Statistical
Bulletin), No. 9, 1961, p. 7.
1962-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at the 1960 level (gross
reproduction rate = 140), and that there will be no migration. The
population on which the projections are based is consistent with the
preliminary total of 29,731,000 for the census of 6 December 1960.
1938, prewar boundaries: Institutul Central de Statistica, Commu-
nicari statistice (Statistical Reports), No. 18, 15 August 1947, p. 7.
1938, postwar boundaries; 1945; and 1950-60: Directia Centrala de
Statistica, Anuarul statistic al RPR 1961 (Statistical Yearbook of the
RPR, 1961), Bucharest, 19 1, p. BO.
1961-80: Projection based on the assumptions that mortality will
decline, that fertility will remain constant at the 1960 level (gross
reproduction rate = 105), and that there will be no migration.
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Communist China
1938, 1945, and 1950-58: Estimated, with the census of 30 June 1953
used as the base. Because of inconsistencies between the officially an-
nounced population totals and officially announced birth and death rates,
the population estimates were based on the following assumed average an-
nual vital rates:
Number of Persons per 1,000 Population
Years
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Rate
of Increase
1938-48
42.5
32.5
10.0
1948-53
45.1
26.0
19.1
1953-58
43.8
19.7
24.1
It was assumed that the actual birth rate was 45.0 per 1,000 before 1948
but that infanticide lowered the effective birth rate to 42.5.
1959-61: Projection based on the assumption that the natural in-
crease fell from 25.2 per 1,000 population in 1958 to 20.0 per 1,000
population in 1961 as a result of higher mortality caused by acute food
shortages in many areas since 1958.
1962-80: Projection based on the assumptions that the average annual
rate of natural increase will be 20.0 per 1,000 population and that there
will be no migration. The assumption as to natural increase is arbitrary
and does not involve specific conclusions about underlying demographic
and economic developments during this period.
1938: Estimated. Based on the censuses of 1935 and 1940.
1945: Estimated. Interpolated between the figure of 9,170,000 from
the census of 1 October 1944 and a figure of 9,622,000 for 1949 given in
Kim Il's "Report on Seven-Year Plan," Pyongyang, 16 September 1961.
1950-55: Estimated. Based on the figures for 1949 and 1960 and on
the assumptions (1) that there was a substantial net out-migration during
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the years 1949-53 that exceeded the natural increase for these years
and (2) that after 1953 the rate of natural increase rose and that
there was a moderate net in-migration.
1956-80: Projection based on the assumptions (1) that the rate of
natural increase rose from 25.0 per 1,000 population to 27.5 per 1,000
population between 1955 and 1960 and that it will remain constant there-
after and (2) that net migration added from 25,000 to 100,000 persons
per year to the population from 1954 through 1962 but that net migration
will cease to be a factor after 1962. A figure of 10,789,000, as of the
end of 1960 ("Report on Seven-Year Plan"), was used as a control total.
1938, 1945, and 1950-59: Estimated. Backward projection from the
1960 census based on (1) the following schedule of assumed rates of
natural increase:
Years
Number of Persons per 1,000 Population
193 5 -39
12.5
1940-44
15.0
1945-49
15.0
1950-54
12.5
1955-60
17.5
and on (2) an assumed loss of 1,500,000 persons during the famine of
1944-45, a military loss of about 200,000 males during 1939-54, a net
out-migration of 900,000 during 1954-55, and the execution of 100,000
landlords during 1955-56-
1960: Estimated on the basis of the census figure of 15,916,955 as
of 1 March 1960.
1961-80: Projection based on the assumptions (1) that the average
annual rate of natural increase will rise from 17.5 per 1,000 population
in 1960 to 22.5 per 1,000 population by 1965 and remain constant at that
level through 1980 and (2) that there will be no migration. The assump-
tion of a constant rate of increase after 1965 is arbitrary and does not
involve a commitment to specific future trends in demographic or economic
development.
Mongolia
1938: Figure of 747,500 reported in State Central Bureau of Statis-
tics, Development of the National Economy and Culture of the Mongolian
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People's Republic from 1921 to 1958 a Statistical Compilation, edited
by D. Batu-Sukho, Ulan Bator, 1960; translated in JPRS No. 99b7, ii Sep-
tember 1961, pp. 7-8.
1945 and 1950-56: Interpolated from the census figure of 759,200
as of 15 October 194+4 and the census figure of 845,500 as of 5 February
1956 (ibid.), with rates of natural increase rising from 2.L per 1,000
population to 16.3 per 1,000 population between 19!i4 and 1956.
1957-80: Projection based on an assumed rate of natural increase
that will rise at a decelerating rate from 17.5 per 1,000 population
in 1956 to 30.0 per 1,000 population by 1980. This assumption is based
on the fact that Soviet aid, which emphasizes health programs, can ob-
tain a high degree of control of mortality for the comparatively small
Mongolian population and on the likelihood that, for strategic reasons,
this aid will continue.
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CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
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