SUMMARY OF PEFFER ARTICLE CHINA IN REAPPRAISAL; MENACE TO AMERICAN SECURITY? IN POLITICAL SCIENCE QUARTERLY DECEMBER 1956

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79S01057A000100010014-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 23, 2006
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: January 28, 1957
• Content Type: SUMMARY

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el to the heats reans for our
interest in China 1- at tbe Prellos" cenoluies that
mu, interests were priseri trade and trade potential men is first
developed a Fositive China in the days of Jahn Hay
4haraas aim* 1945 our interest* have been governed by security of
the United States alone, i4oreeeer5 the key to the problon is not
China itself but China's aliens* nith Runts. xesently our policy
has been conditioned by a natural sense of fear compounded with
reeentrient that a people we had befriended so such should Join a
hostile ow. Net result has been en "almost obeessive preoccupation
vnth Chins.
Vlen addressee himself to Chinese inherent strength pointing
out the tendency of the Unitea Stokes* during 'eorld Bar /1 to overeekeh
Chinese role as a :Test power Otilitstry and otherwise. Se finds China
deficient irs natival resouroes, technical skills and virtual ly every.-
tnkre-, except ?ancower and Ulerefore coneluen* that "there is a long
perioe to cushion any threat frtes China slam", thoueh admitting that
China mail plunk" the world into rim M the Soviet Union were to
sureort her in overt aggivesion?
In its (Pirn interest then he asserts; nbhat Aenrice can do is to
contrive to c:ire China no =re ground for bitterness* or provoestio
for recklessness than the *lobe state of verrict politics calls for."
? deittirk- that the Chinese are "swaggering1 dafiant, provocative,"
rtresefis tht the reasons for this lie not in their taint CO:ZIAllai ate
so (such es in the feTeholee;ioal state of Rind produced bx the past
century of helplessness and humiliation and points out that the Nation-
aliste regime started behavince, very truculently to all ?->ccidentals and
neighboring 41171rirti assar4 as 1927. The author then reviews the owner
in which the Chinese most .ndisereetlyt eonsiderini their real power*
goaded or at least presented excuses for the Japanese arression in
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reeh?teia " I " the rest of China fro= 137 on and draws a
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striking parallel to the way imitidothl the present regi mm had it. head
turned by ite all too easy vistory In1914 and 1949. -P-s to the Korean
ear he correctly point* Outs "It was American reluctance to challenge
AUBViA rather than respect for China that gave Chinese Communists
immunity. lat thE r"linese saw only that they had bearded the worldis
etrenreat Power, the no that bed hembled They had challenged
it and revealed it 4 'paper Liget/. 4 Le in thic psychology they
now remain, an because of it they brosini fire, defy, threaten. In
that mental end emotional atate, too, they could let go in adventurisa
witkvAit calculating oonsequemees and bring diameter on their country
ems 'or?but disaster on the Whole world as well.
Turnin tan to footers affecting Americas' polio, he stresses
that the era 19)-1245 has no application. dorimover beeetoe of f;hinage
own imvotce America need not Naar her by herself but ?tali ea an
acceseory or epearnead of aussia. ,an this basis he is strongly critical
of our emo onal preoccupation with China as a menace by itself. Call-
eating nonerecoeeitien of the Ntipieg coatrol of the country,
ermine of the Immo.= regime and excited= frog the U. . have contri-
tuted to a profound resentment on the part of the leipine regime, he states
that China and the U.S. conflate* iteeh other "not so much in cold hostility
as in tensed, rasped nerves,"
is specific recommendations are first not
serieuely, , ." to "shrug off her eeregieue words and gestures and
ve no provocation to passives already inflamed, no shallenge to her
swollen pride which she would feel obliged to vindicate." He feels that
the substantive issues though SerL;us are not foroddabls. lie feels
stroeely that we mast accord recognition because the regime is absolutely
secure acainst overthrow by the Nationalists and there are no ss of
serious disaffection *mon, the Chinese people. SinLiarly he believes
it le in the positive interest of the United State', to grant Communist
China the seat it claims in the U.N.
ite concedes that Formosa is emelt
and does not realey come up with a solu
strategic: importance of eoneome as China on
and stronger. his summary conelusion is that
enemy our relatiens with it are controlling and
t.euld be seen in that perspectives the prehlen
judeed by realities.
ult nut tooh
deprecate the
*Inland becomes stroniver
nes Russia is the main
our policy toward China
is not exaggerated and
II. Cosment
The author's i!storicai sre iis miens to as es
particularly on the psycholkAcal point* hs gads. aia econolaic forecast
is however too pessimistic from the Red Chinese point of IrifeR. Fe iMpliee
that it will be decaden before Chins ls a eigedileant vorld power by
itself. Our estimate la that by the and er the 1960s.-.'..ten or a eoeen
Aare from noweeChlna will have surpassed Japan and be roughly speaking
tied with enand and ?est ,:iermany as the world's third mast ixportant
industrial cower.
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spits this failure Z u etralartir inolin*d to ?anew in the gsisl
concluttions reached because limy Idle if anythinii pm* valid the nearer
the tire is when we ehall have ?ip 1h:stead with China as a major poser in
its owl rie/ht?
Sine the article vas written thorollos of Conroe boon the hig4y
significant uparading of China's patties im the councils of the tkomunist
no* as evidenced by the Statement of Softens of Disenber 29th and
Chou peregrinations. isinaaina that we get ow ten prisoners
released, it scone to me that a major alterstton in ow policy toward
esiping shvald be intionmivoly end objeotivoU comosed at the highest
levels of the moranent. from afusay intelligens* point or view Ise
evorYthi-og to Saw sod nolielig to lois. Pros a cold war point of
view I base the strong conviAsticah though it would be impossible to
)rove, that a rapprochement betimes the U.S. and the Mimeo regime
would be the coat disconeerting step we could take as far as impact on
the Ereliefe harassed rater, le concerned.. I an eartain it would enhance
the i'resident, a leadership throughout all the free woad except for a
handful of countries In the-'heetisrs 1 saitlas and it would do smah to
re-establish basic bar*.'ny of thought barteaen us and our major allies.
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