METHODOLOGY

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• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79S01046A000800050003-6
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• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 10, 1999
• Sequence Number: 3
• Content Type: REPORT

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METHODOLOGY
A. Table 1*
The data on production of tractors in the Ukrainian SSR and on re-
ported deliveries of tractors to Soviet agriculture are from Soviet
publications. The division of production into those tractors produced
at KhTZ and those produced at KhTSZ was estimated on the basis of
25X1 B Soviet publications, 25X1 C
25X1C Because the ar kov plants are the only two well-established
producers of tractors in the Ukrainian SSR, their production, sub-
tracted from total production in the Ukrainian SSR, provides a residual
that is considered to represent production of Belarus' tractors at
DAZ. This method was one of two reliable methods for estimating pro-
duction at DAZ during 1957-60 but was only used as a check on other
estimates for the period 195+-56.
Because of the various types of sources available, the estimates
for the Kharkov plants are fairly reliable. For example, production
at KhTSZ for 195+ was available from Soviet publications along with
total production of DT-54+ tracklaying tractors, the type produced at
25X1 B KhTZ. for 195+ within a few
hundred units of that shown for the latter plant in Table 1.* The
figure 22,600 was used because of production indicated for DAZ from
other sources.
Detailed methodology and sources for individual years are given
below.
Total production of tractors in the Ukrainian SSR for 1953-55 is
25X1 C given in for 1956-57, ; and for 1958-60, in 25X1 C
25X1 C
1. 1954
a. Kharkov Tractor Assembly Plant (KhTSZZ)
A breakdown of Soviet production of tractors by model is
25X1C given It is reported that 11,300 KhTZ-7 wheeled trac-
tors were produced in 1954. A variety of press reports of the period
indicate that KhTSZ was the sole producer of the KhTZ-7 tractor in
P. 14, above.
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25X1 B
195- and that this model was the only model of tractor produced at the
plant. Soviet production of KhTZ-7 tractors in 195+ thus represents
the total production of tractors at KhTSZ in 1954.
b. Khar'kov Tractor Plant (KhTZ)
KhTZ produced only DT-54 tracklaying tractors in 1954. It
was reported that 55,166 DT-54+ tracklaying tractors were produced in
the USSR in 1954. 51 This tractor also was being produced at the
Stalingrad Tractor Plant and the Altay Tractor Plant in Rubtsovsk.
at these three plants indi-
This preliminary estimate indicates that the residual of 6,500 units,
representing output at DAZ and obtained by subtracting reported pro-
duction of Belarus' tractors at Minsk from total Soviet production of
these tractors, probably is reasonably accurate and that, therefore,
an estimate of 22,600 tracklaying tractors for the KhTZ in 1954, de-
rived by subtracting DAZ and KhTSZ production from total production in
the Ukrainian-SSR, is reasonably accurate also.
cate that produced about , to ,000 tractors in 1954. 52
a. Kharkov Tractor Assembly Plant
It was reported that 16,951 KhTZ-7 tractors were produced
in the USSR in 1955. 53 In 1955 the KhTZ-7 was produced at both
tractor plants in Khar'kov. 25X1 C
have provided-sufficient information to permit a reasonable estimate
of the breakdown between the two plants. 25X1C
the assembly line reported that approximately 2,200 KhTZ-7 tractors
had been produced by mid-May after being in production for 4 months
and that output had reached the rate of 50 to 60 per day. 54 This
figure generally is confirmed by a Soviet report that the first 150
tractors were produced at KhTZ in January 1955, another 350 were ro-
duced in February, and 600 were planned in March. 55 25X1C
July reported output of 40 to 50 units per day. 5 The KhTZ-7 was
phased out of production at KhTZ by the end of 1955, so that a rate
of about 4+0 tractors per day probably is a better estimate of average
daily output for the period from mid-May to the end of the year than
50 to 60 a day. At this rate a total of about 9,500 tractor-s would
have been producedby the end of 1955, including the 2,200 produced by
mid-May. Subtracted from the total output for the USSR, this figure
indicates production of about 7,500 KhTZ-7 wheeled tractors, the only
one produced at KhTSZ in 1955.
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KhTZ produced both tracklaying and wheeled tractors in
1955, with an estimated total of 9,500 KhTZ-7 wheeled tractors being
produced. In addition, KhTZ began the manufacture of the DT-14 in
1955 and had released slightly more than 1,000 units by the end of
the year. / The DT-14 is a modernized diesel engine version of the
gasoline engine KhTZ-7 and has a little more power. A total of about
10,500 wheeled tractors, therefore, was produced in 1955.
It was reported that 61,688 DT-54 tracklaying tractors
were produced in the USSR in 1955. 58 The DT-54+ was the only model
produced at KhTZ. of Pos- 25X1 B
sibly as many as 27,000 units. 59 This preliminary estimate indicates
that the residual of 15,100, which represents output at DAZ and is ob-
tained by subtracting reported production of Belarus' tractors at
Minsk from total Soviet production of these tractors, probably is
reasonably accurate. Subtraction of the 22,600 units produced at DAZ
and KhTSZ from the 57,300 tractors produced in the Ukrainian SSR
leaves 3+,700 built at KhTZ, of which 2+,200 probably were tracklaying
tractors.
3. 1956
a. Khar'kov Tractor Assembly Plant
KhTSZ produced only the KhTZ-7 and DSSh-14 tractors in
1956. Neither model was produced in any other plant. Soviet publi-
cations report that 350 KhTZ-7 tractors had been produced above plan
by early February 1956 60 and that 1,400 of them were delivered to
agriculture in 1956,* which indicates production of about l1500 units."
The KhTZ-7 was replaced at KhTSZ by the DSSh-14 self-propelled chassis,
a type of four-wheeled tractor with the engine in the rear. The first
120 of the latter had been completed by August, 62 and a total of
1,500 by the end of the year, based on the reported delivery of 1,400
to agriculture. Thus KhTSZ produced a total of about 3,000 tractors in
1956.
KhTZ continued production of the DT-1)4- wheeled tractor in
1956 and was the only Soviet plant producing this tractor. The reported
#
25X1 C Data on the annual deliveries of tractors to agriculture are given
The reported annual deliveries of tractors to agriculture are lower
than annual production because of exports and allocations to nonagricul-
tural uses such as construction.
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delivery of 16,200 DT-14+ tractors to agriculture in 1956, coupled with
25X1 B indicate an output of about 17,000 DT-14
tractors in 1956.
25X1C
in 1956, as reported by the chief engineer of KhTZ. 65
25X1 B approximately 22,600
DT-54+ tracklaying tractors were produced at KhTZ in 1956, L4/
the total production of this model in the Ukrainian SSR. Re-
The
KhTZ-20 tracklaying tractor, a variation of the DT-54, was introduced
in 1956 but apparently was dropped after a short time. Combined pro-
duction of wheeled and tracklaying tractors at KhTZ probably totaled
about 39,600 units. 25X1 B
for the two Kharkov tractor plants were-adjusted slightly to take
into account production of 29,000 Bel-anus' tractors at Dnepropetrovsk
4. 1957
The report on plan fulfillment for the first half of 1958 gave
percentage increases which show that 11,500 tracklaying and 25,600
wheeled tractors were produced in the Ukrainian SSR in the first half
of 1957. L61 Because the report on plan fulfillment for the entire
year 1957 stated that production of tractors in the Ukrainian SSR was
evenly divded between the first and second halves of the year (37,100
and 3 000 units, res ectively) 25X1 B
25X1 C and the report on plan fulfillment for
the first half of 1958 indicate continuing production of wheeled and
tracklaying tractors in approximately the same proportions as in the
past, it is assumed that production by type of tractor also was about
evenly divided in 1957. Therefore, an estimated total of 51,200
wheeled tractors and 22,900 tracklaying tractors were produced in the
Ukrainian SSR in 1957. The decrease in the second half of 1957 has
been attributed to a slight drop in production of tracklaying tractors.
a. Khar'kov Tractor Assembly Plant
KhTSZ produced only the wheeled DSSh-14 self-propelled
chassis in 1957. This model was not produced in any other plant. Re-
ported deliveries of 3,600 units to agriculture indicate production of
about 4,0-00 units in 1957.
b. Kharkov Tractor Plant
The entire production of 22,900 tracklaying tractors in the
Ukrainian SSR in 1957 was concentrated in KhTZ.
25X18
indicate that KhTZ also produced approximately 17,000 -
tractors in 1957. 67
whee e
25X1 C
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production of between 18,000 and 20,000 for the year on the basis of
the midyear rate, but production dropped off in the second half of the
year. This drop in production probably was the result of preparations
being made for the switch to the DT-20 wheeled tractor at KhTZ in 1958.
Only 13,500 of the DT-14 tractors were delivered to Soviet agriculture
in 1957 compared with 16,200 in 1956. A total of about 39,900 wheeled
and tracklaying tractors was produced in 1957.
5. 1958
a. Khar'kov Tractor Assembly Plant
KhTSZ produced both the DSSh-l4 and the DVSSh-16 self-
propelled chassis in 1958. Soviet agriculture received 3,300 DSSh-14
self-propelled chassis in 1958. The estimate for the total production
of 7,500 tractors at KhTSZ given in Table 1* is obtained as a residual
when reported production at KhTZ is subtracted from an estimate for
Kharkov Sovnarkhoz.
b. Khar'kov Tractor Plant
According to a Soviet publication, the KhTZ produced 20,600
DT-54 tracklaying tractors in 1958, 68 which comprises the total pro-
duction of tracklaying tractors in the Ukrainian SSR. From this fig-
ure and the reported production of 11,800 tracklaying tractors in the
Ukrainian SSR in the first half of 1958, / it appears that produc-
tion of tracklaying tractors was 3,000 units fewer in the second half
of 1958 than in the first half.
It also was reported that KhTZ produced 22,100 wheeled
tractors in 1958. These were models DT-14 and DT-20, produced only
at this plant. The DT-20 is a modernized and slightly more powerful
version of the DT-14, which it replaced at some time in 1958. On the
basis of reported deliveries of these two tractor models to agriculture,
production at KhTZ may be estimated at about 12,200 DT-14,s and 9,900
DT-20's. KhTZ thus produced a total of about 42,700 tractors in 1958.
When production of tractors at KbTZ is subtracted from the
total production of tractors in the Ukrainian SSR, there is obtained a
residual of 39,300 units that represents the aggregate production by
KhTSZ and DAZ. The plan for 1965 has scheduled production of 107,000
tractors in the Ukrainian SSR in that year compared with 82,000 in
1958. Li/ On the other hand, production of tractors in Kharkov Sov-
narkhoz in 1965 will be 2.13 times that of 1958. 72 A preliminary
* P. 14, above.
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estimate of about 49,000 to 50,000 tractors by KhTZ and KhTSZ in 1958,
when applied to the rate reported above, indicates a plan for 1965 of
very near the 107,000 tractors scheduled for the Ukrainian SSR as a
whole. This production suggests that Khar'kov Sovnarkhoz probably
will account for the entire production of tractors in the Ukrainian
SSR in 1965 and also suggests that the two plan figures may be used in
conjunction with one another to obtain an estimated production of
50,200 tractors in Kharkov Sovnarkhoz in 1958. Subtracting reported
production of 42,700 tractors at KhTZ from this total provides an
estimate of 7,500 tractors for KhTSZ for 1958. Furthermore, the figure
of 50,200 subtracted from the total production of 82,000 tractors in
the Ukrainian SSR in 1958 provides an estimate of 31,800 tractors at
DAZ in 1958.
6. 1959
a. Kharkov Tractor Assembly Plant
The total production of tractors in the Ukrainian SSR
dropped only slightly below the level of 1958, and it is assumed,
therefore, that there was no major change in the level of output at
the individual plants. 25X1 B
production of approximately 7,000 self-propelled chassis in .
The figure of 7,500 is used in Table 1* merely to be in accord with
the stated assumption that production was about the same. In this re-
spect, production at DAZ would be underestimated for 1959 to the ex-
tent that 7,000 is a more accurate estimate for KhTSZ than is 7,500.
-Production at KhTZ has been reported in a Soviet publication.
b. Khar'kov Tractor Plant
It was reported that 42,800 tractors were produced at
KhTZ in 1959, of which 20,600 were tracklaying and 22,200 were
wheeled. 74 Most of the wheeled tractors were of the DT-20 model.
A small number of the DT-14 model were manufactured. As in previous
years the tracklaying tractors were the DT-54 model.
1960
a. Khar'kov Tractor Assembly Plant
KhTSZ had a plan for 1960, announced in January 1960, for
production of 5,000 units of "an improved model" of a self-propelled
chassis. 75 Presumably, production of the older model did not cease
immediately. It is estimated, therefore, that production at KhTSZ in
1960 was approximately the same as in 1959. The estimate has been
14, above.
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increased slightly to 8,000 units to reflect the reported increase in
the total production of tractors in the Ukrainian SSR to 88,000 units
compared with 80,800 in 1959.
Most of the increase (7,200 units) in production of tractors
in the Ukrainian SSR in 1960 compared with that in 1959 probably came
25X1 C from KhTZ. provide
The
a range of production of 4b,,000 to 50,000 tractors in lqb0. 7b
midpoint of this range has been given for the estimated output at KhTZ.
KhTZ dropped production of the DT-5i- tracklaying tractor in 1960 and
replaced it with an improved and more powerful model, the T-75.
B. Tables 2 and 5*
One method of estimating production of Belarus' tractors at DAZ
during 1956-59 is to determine the total Soviet production of these
tractors on the basis of reported annual deliveries to agriculture and
to subtract production at MTZ from the total production in the USSR.
Essential to this method is the indication in Soviet publications and
in reports of foreign visitors that MTZ and DAZ are the only two plants
producing Belarus' tractors.
Table 2 is designed to show total production of Belarus' tractors
for use with data on production of these tractors at MTZ presented in
Table 3.** The methodology outlined here carries through the process
of subtracting output at MTZ from the total to obtain the residual,
which represents production at DAZ. The latter data are incorporated
into Table 5. The data on DAZ presented below will differ slightly
from the range given in Table 5 because Table 5 also incorporates data
on production of tractors at the two Khar'kov plants. The latter data
provide estimates for production of tractors at DAZ during 1957-59,
which was 500 to 1,000 units higher each year than those provided by
the analysis described below.
25X1 C
Annual deliveries of Belarus' tractors to agriculture are reported
This analysis provides a range, although a narrow one, for the
estimated production at DAZ during 1956-59 because, in one instance, it
has been assumed that production in 1956 is unknown and must be estimated
* Pp. 16 and 19, respectively, above.
** P. 17, above.
*** The delivery figure for 195+ was derived by subtracting reported
deliveries in 1953 and 1955 from reported total deliveries for the period
1951-55.
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with the aid of data for 1953-55 concerning the number of Belarus'
tractors delivered to agriculture, and, in the second instance, it
has been assumed that production at DAZ amounted to 29,000 units in
1956, as reported by the chief-engineer of KhTZ.* The estimates for
1957--59 also are based on the assumption that the percentage of pro-
duction delivered to agriculture annually in this period is approxi-
mately the same as the average for 1953-56.
The steps involved in making the estimates for Table 2 are out-
lined in detail below.
1. Step 1
Step 1 involves calculating the share of production of Belarus'
tractors delivered to agriculture annually during 1953-55. In this
instance, production at DAZ in 1956 is assumed to be unknown. The
data necessary for this calculation have been 25X1C
and are presented in the following tabulation.
Total
Belarus' Tractors
1953
1951+
1955
1953-55
Production (thousand units)
0.5
11+.8
27.9
1+3.2
Number delivered to agriculture
(thousand units)
0.1+
13.2
23.9
37.5
Percentage of production
delivered to agriculture
80.0**
89.2
85.7
86.8
2. Step 2
In Step 2 the average percentage of production delivered to
agriculture during 1953-55, assumed to be representative for subse-
quent years, is applied to reported deliveries of Belarus' tractors
to agriculture during 1956-59 in order to arrive at an estimate of
* The production figure for 1956 for DAZ given by the chief engineer
of KhTZ probably is reasonably accurate,-although it undoubtedly is a
-rounded figure. The choice of an alternative estimate for 1956, how-
ever, is made primarily to serve as a rough check on the 29,000 figure
and, secondly, to improve the time series for calculating the average
percentage of production of Belarus' tractors delivered to agriculture
by expanding the series an additional year.
** This percentage is not particularly accurate, for small numbers are
being treated in rounded form. Production in 1953, unrounded, amounted
to 469 units. An unrounded figure for deliveries to agriculture is not
available.
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the total Soviet production of Belarus' tractors for each year of the
latter period. If production at MTZ is subtracted from this total, the
residual obtained represents estimated production of Belarus' tractors
at DAZ. These data are presented in the tabulation below.
1956
1957
1958
1959
Number delivered to agriculture
(thousand units)
39.7
42.6
46.3
51.9
Percentage of production
delivered to agriculture,
1953-55 average
86.8
86.8
86.8
86.8
Estimated total Soviet produc-
tion (thousand units)
45.7
49.1
53.3
59.8
Minus production at MTZ
(thousand units)
-16.0
-19.2
-22.5
-30.3
Estimated production at DAZ
(thousand units)
29.7
29.9
30.8.
29.5
3. Step 3
An essential factor in the third step is the acceptance of the
production figure for 1956 for DAZ that 25X1C
25X1 C the chief engineer or _____ in mid-1957. This
official stated that 29,000 Belarus' tractors were produced at
Dnepropetrovsk in 1956 and that 30,000 would be produced there in
1957. 79 The addition of the 29,000 units produced in 1956 at DAZ to
the 16,-000 produced in 1956 at MTZ provides an estimated total produc-
tion of 45,000 Belarus' tractors in 1956. This figure may be tabulated
in a manner similar to that of Step 1 above in order to arrive at an
estimate of the share of production delivered to agriculture during
1953-56. The data for calculating the average percentage of production
delivered to agriculture during 1953-56 is presented below.
Total
Belarus' Tractors
1953
1954
1955
1956
1953-56
Production (thousand units)
0.5
14.8
27.9
45.0
88.2
Number delivered to agriculture
(thousand units)
0.4
13.2
23.9
39.7
77.2
Percentage of production
delivered to agriculture
80.0*
89.2
85.7
88.2
87.5
* This percentage is not particularly accurate, for small numbers are
being treated in rounded form. Production in 1953, unrounded, amounted
to 469 units. An unrounded figure for deliveries to agriculture is not
available.
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4. Step 4
The fourth step is similar to the second step. The average
percentage of production delivered to agriculture during 1953-56,
assumed to be representative for subsequent years, is applied to re-
ported deliveries of Belarus' tractors to agriculture during 1957-59
in order to arrive at an estimate of total Soviet production of
Belarus' tractors for each year in the latter period. If production
at MTZ is subtractedfrom this total, the residual obtained represents
estimated production of Belarus' tractors at DAZ. These data are
presented in the following tabulation.
Belarus' Tractors
1957
1958
1959
Number delivered to agriculture
(thousand units)
42.6
46.3
51.9
Percentage of production
delivered to agriculture,
1953-56 average
87.5
87.5
87.5
Estimated total Soviet produc-
tion (thousand units)
48.7
52.9
59.3
Minus production at MTZ
(thousand units)
-19.2
-22.5
-30.3
Estimated production at DAZ
(thousand units)
29.5
30.4
29.0
C. Table 3*
1. 1952-55
25X1 C
The basic data for the period 1952-55 are contained in
The total production of tractors in the Belorussian SSR
this source. Because MTZ is the sole producer of tractors
in the Belorussian SSR, the data for the republic are necessarily the
data for that plant.
The total production of logging tractors and Belarus' tractors
for the USSR also is given in the same source. Because MTZ was the
sole producer of logging tractors during 1952-55, production of
Belarus' tractorsat Minsk was obtained by subtracting production of
logging tractors from the total productionof tractors at MTZ. MTZ
is shown -to have accountedfor the entire Soviet production of Belarus'
tractors in 1953.
* P. 17, above.
31.
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2. 1956
The estimate for the total production of tractors at Minsk in
1956 is based on an index of unit production published in a Soviet
agricultural journal. 81 This journal reported that production in
1956 was 417 index points compared with an index of 100 in 1952.
The estimate for production of Belarus' tractors in 1956 is
based on the report that production of these tractors at the Minsk
plant increased 25 percent compared with that in 1955. 82 The esti-
mate obtained from this calculation was subtracted from the total
production of tractors at Minsk to obtain the estimate for production
of logging tractors in 1956.
3. 1957
The estimate for the total production of tractors at MTZ in
1957 is based on the report that production increased 17 percent com-
pared with that in 1956. L3/
The estimate for production of Belarus' tractors in 1957 is
based on the monthly average of aggregate production in 1956 and 1958.
The total production for 1956 and 1958 was 38,500 Belarus' tractors,
or a monthly average of 1,600. The estimate of 19,200 tractors thus
obtained for 1957 appears reasonably sound in view of the rate of
growth of the total production of tractors at MTZ during 1956-58.
Production of logging tractors again was obtained by subtracting pro-
duction of Belarus' tractors from the total.
4. 1958
The estimate for the total production of tractors at MTZ in
1958 is based on the report that production increased 5 percent
compared with that in 1957. 84+ A Soviet journal reported that a total
of 375,000 tractors would be produced in the USSR in 1965, 85 and a
25X1 C that MTZ would produce 18 out of
every 100 tractors produced in the USSE in 1965 and that it would pro-
duce three times the number of Belarus' tractors produced in 19!58.86
Eighteen percent of the total planned production of tractors in 1965-
would amount to 67,500 tractors scheduled for production at Minsk,
which, in turn, indicates production of about 22,500 Belarus' tractors
there in 1958. As of the dates of the above information (February and
April 1959), it was clear that Minsk was to specialize in production
of Belarus' tractors Ln the future.
25X1C the logging tractor was withdrawn from production at Minsk in
which is borne out by the drop in output of these tractors in
1958 compared with that in 1957. As for earlier years, the estimate of
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production for logging tractors was obtained by subtracting production
of Belarus' -tractors from the total production.
5. 1959
The estimate for the total production of tractors at MTZ in
1959 is based on the report that production increased 16 percent com-
pared with that in 1958. 88 This same estimate is obtained if the
reported production of tractors in the RSFSR, the Ukrainian SSR, and
the Uzbek SSR 89is subtracted from total Soviet production of tractors
in 1959. There was some production of self-propelled chassis in the
Georgian SSR in 1959, but this elimination process indicates that it
was at an insignificant rate.
It was reported that logging tractors would be withdrawn from
production at Minsk in 1958 and that this withdrawal would permit an
increase of 35 percent in the output of Belarus' tractors in 1959
above that in 1958. 90 This increase wouldindicate a 1959 plan of
about 30,300 to 30,400 units, all of which were Belarus' tractors.
6. 1960
The estimate for the total production of tractors at MTZ,
based on a reported increase of 14 percent in production above that in
1959, 91 amounts to about 34,500 units. On the other hand, when the
reported production of tractors in the RSFSR, the Ukrainian SSR, and
the Uzbek SSR in 1960 is subtracted from total Soviet production of
tractors, 92 there is obtained a residual of 34,400 tractors, which
represents production in the Belorussian SSR (MTZ) and the Georgian
SSR (Georgian Agricultural Machinery Plant in Tbilisi). One of these
estimates is as good as the other because each is a producteither of
rounded annual percentage increases in production or of rounded
quantitative production data. Either figure also contains the insig-
nificant level of production of self-propelled chassis estimated for
the Georgian SSR. 25X1 C
mass production of self-propelled chassis was organized in the Georgian
SSR in 1960 and that production doubled compared with that in 1959. 93
It is doubtful, however, that production exceeded 100 units in 1960.
7. 1961
The production plan for 1961 was taken from 25X1C
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