PRODUCTION OF NATURAL GAS AND NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS IN THE USSR

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• Release Decision: RIPPUB
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• Document Page Count: 51
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 8, 1998
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 28, 1954
• Content Type: REPORT

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US OFFIC IALS ONLY
RESEARCH AID
PRODUCTION OF NATURAL GAS AND NATURAL-GAS LIQUIDS
IN THE USSR
ORR Project 25.192
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
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FOREWORD
This research aid represents the first effort to estimate the po~t-
war production in the USSR of the three components comprising total
petz?ol~.um production: crude oil, natural-gas liquids,-and natural gas.
Official`~~A~iet published prewar data, as shown in this research aid,
clearly, discr~.minate between these three components of petroleum pro-
duction. Conversely, the fragmentary data on quantitative postwar
petroleum production claimed by the USSR cannot be concisely related
to either total petroleum production or any combination of petroleum
production components..
In the USSR the term neft? (translated as either petroleum or oil)
is used indiscriminately to .designate crude oil only, crude oil plus
natural-gas liquids, or crude oil plus unrevealed quantities of
natural gas. This use contrasts with US practice of designating crude
oil, natural-gas liquids, and natural gas as separate components of
petroleum.
To illustrate the relative size of petroleum production in the
USSR and the US, the claimed production of? neft? in the USSR is
usually compared with the production of crude oil in the US. For
example, 1953 US production of crude oil of 316 million metric tons
is compared with the Soviet-claimed production of 52 million metz~ic
tons, indicating US production to be about 6 times that of the USSR.
In recent years the Soviet-claimed production of neft? actually
has included increasing quantities of natural-gas liquids, thus
invalidating the comparison. Amore accurate estimate of the rela-
tive petroleum production in the two countries is given by a compari-
son of the total output of petroleum --. crude oil plus natural-gas
liquids plus natural gas. On this basis, the 1953 US production of
5~+5 million metric tons compared with the estimated Soviet production
of 57.2 million metric tons indicates that US production was 9.5 times
that of the USSR, more than 50 percent greater than the-ratio derived
by the commonly used method of comparison.
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CONTENTS
Page
Summary .
1
I.
Production
2
II.
Terminology and Technology .
2
III.
US Practice and Data
5
IV.
Soviet Practice and Data
6
V'.
Production of Natural-Gas Liquids in the USSR
8
VI.
Production of Natural Gas in the USSR .
g
Appendixes
Appendix A.
Methodology
11
Appendix B.
Gaps in Intelligence
39
Appendix C .
Sources . . .
41
Tables
1. Estimated Production of Crude Oil., Natural-Gas Liquids,
and Natural Gas in the USSR, 1927-28 - 1940 and
1945-55 . .
3
2.
Production of Crude Oil, Natural-Gas Liquids, and Natural
Gas in the US, 1946 and 1953
5
-
Production of Crude
Oil, Natural-Gas Liquids, and Natural
Gas in the USSR, 1945 and 1953 . 7
4.
Significant Data on Natural-Gas Trunk Lines in the
USSR .
g
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Page
5. Selected Physical Properties of Normal Hydrocarbons
Occurring in Natural-Gas Liquids and Natural Gas 15
6. Distribution of Proved Reserves of Petrolei~n Components
in the US in Terms of Percent by Weight of Crude Oil,
1946 and 1952 . 18
7. Production Compared_ with Gross Withdrawals from Oilfields
of Crude Oil, Natural-Gas Liquids, Natural. Gas, and
Total Petroleum in the USSR and the US, Selected Years
1930 - 52 . . . 20
8. Estimated Prewar Production and Withdrawals of Crude Oil,
Natural-Gas Liquids, and Natural Gas in th.e USSR,
1927-28 - 1940
9. Estimated Postwar Production and Withdrawals of Crude
Oil, Natural-Gas Liquids, and Natural Gas in the USSR,
194.5-55 30
10. Estimated Gross Annual Increases Required in Crude Oil
Production in the USSR, 1945-55 32
11. Data on Natural-Gas Trunk Lines Serving Gasfields and
Estimated Recovery of Natural-Gas Liquids :from Such
Fields in -the USSR, 1950 . . 34
12. Estimated Maximum Range of Possible Values of Postwar
Production of Petroleum Components in the USSR,
1945-55 . 37
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PRODUCTION OF NATURAL GAS AND NA.TURA.L-CrAS LIQUIDS
IN THE USSR*
Summary
It is estimated that natural-gas liquids produced in the USSR in
1953 were equal to about 6 percent of the weight of crude oil, as
contrasted with a 10-percent ratio in the US. It appears that in
Soviet oilfields additional natural-gas liquids can be recovered
from wet natural gas now being wasted, probably with less effort than
would be required for an equivalent increase in crude oil.
The utilization of natural gas in the USSR is in its early stages.
Existing pipelines are mostly low-capacity short lines designed tc~
serve local needs in or near the oil and gas fields. Since World War
II, a few large-capacity natural-gas trunk lines, designed to trans-
port natural gas from the fields to large centers such as Moscow and
Kiev, have been completed. The capacity of these lines is probably
being increased by looping (paralleling) and by other measures. The
Fifth Five Year Plan (1951-55) calls for an 80-percent increase in
gas production.
Current production estimates for-1953 are 48.6 million metric
tons~-~ of crude oil, 3.1 million tons of natural-gas liquids, and
4.5 million tons of natural gas. The sum of these 3 components in-
dicates a total 1953 petroleum production in the USSR of 57.2 million
tons. The current Soviet claims for the production of neft' (trans-
lated as either petroleum or oil) in the USSR in 1953 are from 52 to
53 million tons.
~ The estimates and conclusions contained in this research aid rep-
resent the best judgment of the responsible analyst as of 15 Feb 1954.
-~ Tonnages throughout this research aid are given in metric tons.
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I. Production.-
. Estimates and forecasts of the production of natural gas and
natural-gas liquids in the USSR by years-from 1927-28 to 1940 and from
-1945 to 1955 are given in Table 1:~ 1Vo effort ha.s been made to esti-
mate the production of -these commodities during the World War II
years, 1941 through 1944.
Also shown in Table 1 are the estimates of the annua)_ production
of crude oil in the-USSR and of the total production of petroleum --
crude oil plus natural-gas liquids plus natural gas. A column headed
"Total Liquid Hydrocarbons" shows the sum of the production of crude
oil plus natural-gas liquids.
The estimates and forecasts. shown in Table 1 are based upon the
most reasonable evaluations of the meaning of the fragmentary quanti-
tative data available in the postwar period.- The possible minimum
and maximum values .are based upon the corresponding extreme alternate
assumptions concerning these data. Presentation of the fragmentary
data, citation of sources, and discussion of the assumptions and
their application are discussed in detail in Appendix A.
Prewar data in Table 1 are .largely from official sources discussed
in Appendix A and cited in Appendix C.
LI. Terminology and Technology.
Definitions of the terms crude oil, natural-gas .liquids, natural
ga.s, and petroleum are given in Appendix A. This appendix also covers
the terminology and the technology of recovery of these components from
oil and-gas deposits. Briefly, the three components of petroleum,
crude oil, natural-gas liquids, and natural gas, a.re intimately associ-
ated in all oil deposits and, in exploiting such deposits, are extracted
simultaneously from oil wells. In gas deposits (which are exploited
by gas wells), only two components occur, natural-gas liquids and
natural gas. In some gas deposits producing so-called "dry" gas, only
negligible quantities of natural gas liquids are present. In contrast,
practically all oil deposits, and-many gas deposits, yield."wet" gas,
from which natural-gas liquids can be extracted in sufficient quantities
to warrant the processing of such gas. .The processing of wet gas for
recovery of natural.-gas liquids may range from simple scrubbers-for 'the
recovery of "drip" gasoline, or "lease condensate," to complex modern
~ Table 1 follows on p. 3.
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plants designed for the selective recovery of the several lighter
hydrocarbons comprising the entire range of natural-gas liquids. A
brief presentation of these various processes is given in Appendix A.
III. US Practice and Data.
In the US, specifP'c quantitative data are compiled and published
covering the production of each of the three components comprising
petroleum -- crude oil, natural-gas liquids, and natural gas, and,
since 1846, annual estimates of the proved reserves of each of these
three components have been compiled and published by a joint com-
mittee of the American Petroleum Institute and the.American-Gas
Association. ~* Table 2 shows the annual production of these
components in the US for 1946 and for 1953 in millions of metric tons
and in percentage by weight of the crude oil.
Production of Crude Oil, Natural-Gas Liquids, and Natural. Gas. in the US
1846 and 1953
1946
1953
Quantity,
Quantity
(Million
(Million
Component
Metric
Tons)
Crude Oil
(Percent)
Metric .
Tons)
Crude Oil
(Percent)
Liquid Hydrocarbons
Crude OiI
235
100.0
316
100.0
Natural-Gas Liquids
13
5.5
32
10.1
Total
248
105.5
348
110.1
Marketed Natural Gas
g4
40.0
197
62.3
Total Petroleum
342
145.?5
545
172.4
~ Footnote references in arabic numerals are to sources listed in
Appendix C.
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Following is a comparison of the average annual growth in the
production of -each of the c-omponents listed in 'able 2, during the
period l9~+6-53~
Crude Oil
~+ ? 3
Natural-Gas Liquids
13.1
Natural Gas
11.1
Thus in the postwar period the US production ~f natural-gas
liquids has increased at a rate of 3.1 times that of crude oil, and
the-production of natural gas has increased at a rate of 2.6 times
that of crude oil. Furthermore, this high rate of increase for
these two components was from: a relatively high level of output at
the beginning of the 19+6-53 period. Several factors account for
these high postwar growth rates. -For natural-gss liquids the
principal Factor is the low cost -of labor and material required per
barrel for the recovery of natural-gas liquids from the gas being
extracted from oil-and gas deposits compared with the cost per-
barrel of new crude-oil production. Published cost studies
indicate-that-the capital investment required per barrel of daily
- increase in natural-gas liquids production is ~1,-313 compared with
parallel investment of $3,66+ for crude -oil. The postwar growth
of marketed natural gas in the US has been made possible by the
construction of several new transcontinental natural-gas trunk lines
connecting the. sources of supply with large markets for natural gas.
IV. Soviet Practice and Data.
Russian language texts published in Moscow since 1950 reveal a
technological grasp of-petroleum-industry practices comparable with
those in the US during the postwar period. The extent to which these
:practices have been applied is assumed to depenci-upon the economic
advantage to be gained related to the input of labor and materials
needed to attain such an economic advantage.
A recently published Russian language text for use by the
Sotriet petroleum industry gives comprehensive and relevant data on
the problems of the gas industry, including the extraction and
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recovery of natural gas and natural-gas liquids from oil and gas de-
posits. This text indicates that technical capabilities to produce
these latter components in the USSR compare favorably with such capa-
bilities in the US.
Table 3 shows the estimated annual production of crude. oil,
natural-gas liquids, and natural gas in the USSR for 19+5 and 1953
taken from Table 1, for comparison with similar data for the US shown
in Table 2.
Table 3
Production of Crude Oil, Natural-has Liquids, and Natural Gas
in the-USSR
19+5 and 1953
19+5
1953
Quantity
(Million
Crude Oil
Quantity
(Million
Crude Oil
Components
Metric Tons)
(Percent).
Metric Tons)
(Percent)
Liquid Hydrocarbons
Crude Oil
19?x+
100.0
x+9.6
100.0
Natural-Gas Liquids
0.1
0.5
3.1
6.3
Total
19.5
100.5
52.7
106.3
Marketed Natural Gas
2.3
11.9
~+.5
g.l
Total Petroleum
21.8
112.x+
57.2
115.x+
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V. Production of Natural-Gas Liquids in the USSR.
In Table 3 it will be noted that the estimated production of
natural-gas liquids in the USSR in 1953. is .equal to 6.3 percent of
the production of crude oil. This is slightly higher than the 5.5
percent shown in Table 2 for the US in 1946 but substantially below
-the 10.1-percent for the US in 1953. The rate of increase of the
production of natural-gas liquids in the USSR in the postwar period,
as reflected by the estimates in Table 3, is high. The production of
this component of the production of petroleum in the USSR, however,
started from a very low level in 1945. In addition,-the increased
production of crude oil in the USSR since 1948 ha,s been almost wholly
from new and deeper deposits in which the availability of natural-gas
liquids is much higher than in .the older and shalaower deposits which
were the principal source of petroleum in the USSR in the prewar years
and during the immediate postwar years of restoration and rehabili-
tation of the old producing oilfields.
-Table 1 indicates an estimated current rate of increase of approx-
imately 1 million tons per year in the production of natural-gas
liquids in the USSR. This high rate of ncrease-cannot be sustained
after the capacity for processing wet-gas withdrawn from the oil,
which-has been previously flared (wasted), approaches the quantity
of .such wet gas available-for processing. It is estimated that this
condition will-develop after 1955 and-that the annual growth in the
production of natural-gas liquids in the USSR after that time will
trend toward the annual rate of increase in the production of crude
oil, rather than maintain the high rate indicated in Table 3. This
current annual increase of l million tons per year in-the estimated
production of natural-gas liquids in the USSR was first reached ~y
the US petroleum industry in 1929, when the increase over 1928 was
1.2 million tons. As early as 1823, however,. the US registered an
.annual increase of 0.87 million tons of natural-gas liquids. 4~
.Modern-postwar processing of wet gas for the recovery of natural-
gas liquids, as revealed by both US ~ and Soviet_~ technical-pub-
lications, shows a very large increase in the recovery of the natural-
gas liquids entrained in wet gas. For example, from 1935~to 1951 the
yield of natural--gas liquids per thousand cubic feet of gas processed
increased 57 percent in-the US. ~ Because of the postwar increase
in availability of wet-gas for processing in the USSR, as shown in
Appendix A, and because of the very substantial increase in the
proportionate recovery of natural-gas liquids per unit quantity of
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wet. gas, a current annual increase of l million tons per year for this
component of the production of petroleum in the USSR is a reasonable
estimate. Comparison with the known annual increases of the same
component in the US in the 1920's supports this estimate.
A more detailed exposition of the basis for the postwar estimates
of the production of natural-gas liquids in the USSR, as shown in
Table 1, is given in Appendix A.
DTI. Production of Natural Gas in the USSR.
In contrast to the estimated production of natural-gas liquids
in the USSR, the postwar production of natural gas has been on a much
lower .level, and the annual growth in the production of natural gas
has been at a much lower rate. The primary reason for this difference
is the high inputs of labor and material required to build the long
natural-gas .trunk lines needed to transport to centers of population
-the large quantities of natural gas being flared in the oilfields.
Table 4 presents the most pertinent data available on natural-
gas trunk lines in the USSR. More detailed data.-are given, and sources
are cited, in Appendix A.
Table 4
Significant Data on Natural-Gas Trunk Lines in the USSR
Natural-Gas Trunk Line
Year
Completed
Length
(Kilometers)
Annual Capacity
(Million Metric
Tons)
Dashava to Lvov
1940
70
0.13
Yelshanka to Saratov
1942
18
0.20
Buguruslan to Kuybyshev
1943
160
0.20
Saratov to Moscow
1946
843
0.37
Dashava to Kiev
1948
513
0.62
Total for Eight Years
1,604
1.52
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In 1950 the Buguruslan-Kuybyshev pipe line was looped-(paralleled)
with another line, thereby do~ibling its capacity.- The Saratov-Moscow --
and Dashava-Kiev lines were both major projects of the USSR. It is
unlikely that additional projects of this size have been .completed
since 1948, but it is likely tY~at the capacity of existing trunk lines
has been increased by looping, by increasing the number of compressor
stations, and, in some cases, by increasing the maximum operating
pressures.. -In-contrast, pos-twar.construction of natural-gas trunk
lines and branch transmission lines in the US increased from 77,280
miles in .1945 to 118,160 miles in 1952, an average annual construction
of 5,840 miles (9,400 kilometers) of such lines. In -1952 the 20 major
natural-gas pipe-line systems in the US operated 5T,242 miles (92,122
kilometers) of main transmission lines having a maximum capacity of
15.747 million-cubic feet daily,-which is equivalent to an annual
capacity of 135 million-tons of natural gas. 8~ Comparison of these
US data with the Soviet data -shown in Table 4 indicates that the
over-all magnitude of the natural-gas industry of the US is about. --
100 times tY~at of the USSR. As the tota_1 1953 production of petrol-
eum in the US was 9.5 times that in the USSR, as shown in Tables 1 and
2, it is obvious that the relative position of the natural gas industry
in the USSR is abnormally low.
The Fifth Five Year Plan (1951-55) 9~ calls for an 80-percent in-
crease in the production of all types of fuel gas, including natural
gas, during this 5-year period. This increase is reflected in Table 1,
with the production of natural gas in 1950 estimated to be 3.9 million
tons and in 1955 to be 7 million tons. The Fifth Five Year Plan also
requires afivefold-increase in pipe-line transport. The estimates
of the production of natural gas in the USSR for the postwar period,
145 through 1953,-and forecasts for 1954=55 are based, in general,
on the capacity of the natural-gas-trunk lines completed through
1948, as shown in Table 4, plus reasonable additions to the capacity
of such lines in the past 5 years, plus rapidly increasing utili-
zation of natural gas in oil-producing regions. In order to meet
the goal of the-Fifth Five Year-Plan, an accelerated increase in such
activities will be necessary in the 1954-55 year..
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APPENDIX A
METHODOLOGY
1. Introduction.
The methods used for estimating the annual production of petroleum
components in the USSR, as shown in Table l,* are completely different
in the prewar and, postwar periods. This difference arises from the
relative availability of data for these periods.
Official Soviet prewar production statistics on the three compo-
nents of petroleum production -- crude oil, natural-gas liquids, and
natural gas -- are sufficiently complete so that a minor use of con-
ventional interpolation and extrapolation methods provides a satis-
factory compilation of prewar annual estimates.
Postwar Soviet data on petroleum production, in contrast, are
very fragmentary and cannot be firmly identified with either the total
production of petroleum or the production of crude oil. The data
given in Table 1 for the postwar period are the result of an initial
analysis of the available data as described in this appendix. As
additional postwar data become available and further analyses are
made, the postwar data shown in Table 1 should be revised.
2. US Terminology.
a. Petroleum.
The US Bureau of Mines definition, 19+5 10 is: "Petroleum
is an extremely complex mixture of naturally occurring hydrocarbons
and other substances that are found in the solid, liquid, and gaseous
states. Asphalts and mineral waxes are common varieties of solid
petroleum; crude oil is liquid petroleum, and natural gas is a form
of petroleum in the gaseous or. vapor state."
This definition of petroleuun is the one now most widely used.
by US petroletun technologists and is accepted by the American
Petroleum Institute. 11/ It is quite different, however, from the
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definition which was in use throughout the oil industry of the IJS 30
.years ago and is still used in some quarters: "P~troleum: an oily,
inflammable, liquid mixture of numerous hydrocarbons, chiefly of the
paraffin Series, found in the earth," 12~
The nontechnical usage of the term "petro.leum" has changed in
its emphasis in the past l0 years, as revealed by the 1942 and 1953
editions of the Encyclopedia Americana. In 1942, crude oil was
emphasised as the most important form of petroleum. The 1953 defi-
nition states-that petroleum "appears chiefly in the form of natural
gas and crude oil, either separately or in close association or inter-
solution with each other."
b. Natural Gas.-
The current American Petroleum Institute definition of natural
gas is as follows:- "Gaseous forms of-petroleum, commonly called
'natural gas,' consist of mixtures of hydrocarbon gases and vapors,
the more important of which are methane, ethane, propane; butane,
pentane, and hexane,- all of the paraffin series (Cn H2n~8.2)." 13~
c. Natural-Gas Liquids.
The currently accepted definition of natural-gas liquids is
as follows: "Natural gas liquids are defined as those hydrocarbon
liquids that are gaseous in the reservoir but are obtainable by con-
densation or absorption. Natural gasoline, condensate, and liquefied
petroleum gases fall in this category. In order to prevent misunder-
standing of this term it is further amplified as follows: the natural
gas liquids are those heavier hydrocarbon components of the natural.
gas-which may be removed and reduced to the liquid state by various
processes. These processes usually take place in field separators,
scrubbers, gasoline plants, or cycling plants. The liquids so
c-oll.ected and the products made from them in some of the modern plants
are known by a variety of names, but they have been grouped together
under the general heading 'Natural Gas Liquids.'" 14~
d. Petroleum Production.
In this research aid the production of petroleum applies only
to that part of-the petroleum withdrawn from oil and gas wells which
is conserved or saved. In oilfields the natural gas produced with
the crude oil is frequently flared, or wasted, because of lack of
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demand at the source.. Nearly all natural gas now being flared in the
US is either dry natural gas or gas so lean in natural-gas liquids that
recovery is not warranted. Gasfields are not developed or produced
unless-the market outlet for the gas, is such that the production of
petroleum .in the fields is the same as gross withdrawals less minor
handling losses and field use.
e. Gross Withdrawals.
The term gross withdrawals, as used in US Bureau of Mines
natural-gas. statistics, 15~ is the sum of the marketed production of
natural gas, plus the gas used in repressuring oil deposits in oil-
fields, plus the gas vented and wasted. The latter category includes
gas flared at field plants .and other measured wastes but does not
include, except where data are available, direct waste at the wells.
In this research-aid, estimated gross withdrawals of petroleum in the.
USSR is the sum of the production of petroleum. plus the total waste.
It is assumed, however,-that production of crude oil and gross with-
drawals of crude oih are-identical.
3. Soviet Terminology.
The Russian word neft', with its various grammatical forms, is al-
most exclusively used to express the US terms "petroleum" and "oil."
Neft' is translated as either petroleum or oil, and Russian-English
dictionaries give both terms without well-defined preference. The.
word petroleum is used to a limited extent in Russian literature
with the same meaning as its English counterpart. An official US
Army publication 16~ gives three English equivalents for neft' --
oil,.crude oil, and petroleum. On the other hand, a recent and
authoritative US publication on scientific Russian 17~ shows petrol-
eum as the only equivalent for neft' in its Russian-English vocabulary,
and neft' as the only equivalent for petroleum in its English-Russian
vocabulary.
It is obvious that dictionary definitions alone will not show
clearly what is meant by the Russian term neft' as used by the Soviet
government in its statements on the production of petroleum. Actual
usage appears to be the only criterion. Postwar usage cannot be
clearly defined, for no concise breakdown-has been given between the ,
production of oil and the production of gas in the postwar period, as
it was in prewar statistics. For example, in the Third Five Year Pls,n
(1938-42), 18~ the 19+2 goal is stated in one place as follows: "Crude
oil with gas eft' siraya s gazom7 5~E million tons.." In another place
appears the following: Production of petroleum (neft') in 19+2 must
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be 49.5 million tons without gas and 54 million tons with gas." This
clearly indicates the use .of rieft' as meaning either crude oil with
wet natural gas -- petroleum -- or without- natural gas -- crude oil.
What is meant in a given case cannot be determined unless the pro-
duction of each component, crude oil and gas, is stated.
Another prewar-example of the use -of the.word neft' is signifi-
cant because it is used to compare production of crude oil only, in
1-year, with production of crude oil plus natural. gas, in a later
year. This practice, if it has been applied to postwar production
claims and percentage increases,- can be misleadir.~g. This example is
in a political dictionary, or lexicon, 19~ published in Moscow in 19~+Oo
It is apparently intended for use by political writers and economists
as a reference book. In the brief article on the petroleum Indus-try
on page 374, appears the statement: "The production of petroleum
(neft') increased from 9.2 million tons in 1913 to 32.2 million tons
in 1938, i.e., by 3.5 times. ... In the Third Five-Year Plan ending
in 1942 the. production of petroleum (neft') will increase to 54 mil-
lion tons, ... 177 percent in relation to the year 1937." According
to official Soviet statistics the 1913 production cited in the above
passage includes no gas, 20~ and the 1938-figure cited includes nearly-
2 million tons of natural gas. 21~
It is clear from these citations that no .reliance can be placed
on what is meant by the word neft' in Soviet official production
claims, unless it is accompanied by concise state:ment~ showing the
components included.
4. Technology.
The normal hydrocarbons .found in natural-ga,s liquids and in
natural gas, with their principal physical properties, are-shown in
Table 5.~
As reflected in Table 5, the hydrocarbons comprising natural-gas
liquids and natural gas occur in both vapor and liquid phases .under .
varying conditions of temperature and pressure. 17nder the relatively
high pressures found in underground oil deposits, a part or all of
these hydrocarbons-are dissolved in the oil and are therefore in the
liquid phase. As the oil flows to the well and thence to the .surface,
the .pressure drops and liberates large quantities of these dissolved
hydrocarbons, so that they appear at the well head in the vapor phase.
Table 5 follows on p, 15.
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- This oil-gas mixture at the well head is discharged into a separator, or
a series of separators, where the pressure is reduced to atmospheric
pressure. The liquid-phase material resulting from this primary separa-
ting process is crude oil, or stock-tank oil. The .vapor-phase material
is wet gas which carries varying quantities of natural-gas liquids. 23/
i3ecause of its content of natural-gas liquids, which tend to
condense and choke the- line, wet gas as received a.t the well head or
field separators cannot usually b_e transported readily for long
distances through pipelines. It is therefore gathered in relatively
short lines and delivered for processing to natural gasoline plants
in or near the field. Simple traps and scrubbers may be used, however,
to extract part of the natural-gas liquids-before the wet-gas reaches
the processing plant.
In 1951 there were in the US 521 plants producing natural-gas
liquids. 24/ Although most of these plants are located in or near the
producing oil- and gasfields, some new plants are located on natural-
gas-trunk lines. These plants reprocess the gas being transported and
thereby recover the residual natural-gas liquids not recovered in
field plants. One recent plant built at the junction of 2 large
natural-gas trunk lines processes annually about 4 million tons of
this relatively dry natural gas, from which nearly one-half million
tons of natural-gas liquids .will be recovered. 25/
Soviet technology in natural-gas liquids and natural gas closely
follows US practice. This is revealed in a textbook on the-gas
industry published in 1953 by the Soviet Ministry of the Petroleum
Industry. 26/ One interesting and significant departure in approach
has been noted in this Soviet text. US technology approaches-the
problem with the stock-tank oil as the starting point. The undis-
turbed liquid-phase material in-the. oil deposit, which is designated
reservoir oil, is related to the stock-tank oil, or crude oil, by a
volume-formation factor. Thus a volume-formation :factor of 1.40 means
-that, because of the inclusion of dissolved components which are
later liberated into the vapor phase in the producing process, 1 bar-
rel of stock-tank oil is equivalent to 1.40 barrels of reservoir oil.
Soviet technology approaches this problem from the basic concept of
reservoir oil (plastovaya neft'). Crude oil is then related to the
reservoir oil by a fraction such as O.SO, meaning that 1 ton of
reservoir oil contains 0.8 ton of crude oil, and the remaining 0.2 ton
being liberated as wet natural gas.
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Initially, many oil deposits have vapor-phase, or "gas-cap,"
material above and in contact and equilibrium with the liquid-phase
material, or reservoir oil. Other deposits, whicri initially have all
hydrocarbons in the liquid phase, develop gas caps, or vapor-phase
materials, during the producing life of the field because of the
reduction of reservoir pressure below the so-called bubble point of
the reservoir oil, with resultant liberation of vapor-phase material
in the reservoir.
In the US, annual estimates of crude oil, natural-gas liquids,
and natural gas 27~ show the distribution of the two latter components
in oil deposits according to whether they are dissolved in the oil or
are associated with the oil as vapor-phase material. Table 6# shows
the distribution of these components and the proved reserves in gas
deposits, all in terms of percent by weight of the crude oil.
Proved reserves of`petroleum components in the US represent the
.estimated recoverable reserves of such components from known deposits
with .the technology and under the economic conditions existing as
of the time of the estimate. This is an important distinction which
should be recognized when comparing the US with a country such as the
USSR, which has a completely different economic base, even though
the technology may be comparable. A competent study 28~ shows that
in 1950 US~technology could recover 83.1 percent by volume of the
natiLral-gas liquids contained in the natural gas available for pro-
cessing, but, because of lack of assured market demand for the lighter
hydrocarbons, only x+8.8 percent by volume was actually recovered.
Thus only 18.8 percent of the propane was recovered, although 70 per-
cent could have been recovered technologically. Only 50.1 percent of
the butanes was recovered as compared with a 90-percent recovery
technologically feasible. For the heavier hydrocarbons, q0.~+ percent
was .recovered, compared with 96 percent technologically recoverable.
Since 1950, many plants in the US have been built or modified to
.recover larger proportions of these light hydrocarbons. One such
plant 29~ will recover essentially all of the propane and heavier
hydrocarbons plus ~+O percent of the ethane, which will amount to 100,000
tons per year and will be used for the manufacture of various chemicals,
It is estimated that, as of 1950, Soviet oil deposits carried about
-the same distribution of natural gas and natural-gas liquids as those
in the US, as shown in Table 6. Because of lack of a system of natural-
gas trunk lines comparable to that in the US, however, the relative
~ Table follows on p. 18.
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Table 6
Distribution of Proved Reserves of Petroleum Components
in the US in Terms of Percent by Weight of Crude Oil
1946,. and 1952
Component
1946 1952
Crude Oil
100.00
100.00
Natural-Gas Liquids
Dissolved
3.09
4.88
Associated
2.06
2.07
Total
5.15
6.95.
Natural Gas
Dissolved
14.92
18.72
Associated
21.52
19.3
Total
36 ? ~+~+
37.85
Total Oil
141.59
144.80
was
Natural-Gas Liquids
---r
6.93
6.49
Natural Gas
-
96.14
84.-84
Total Gas
103.07
91.33
Total Petroleum.
244.66
236.13
Total Reserves a~
Crude Oil
100.00
100.00
Natural-Gas Liquids
12.08
13.44
Natural Gas
132.58
122.69
Total Petroleum
241+.66
236.13
a. From both gas and oil deposits.
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proportion of developed natural-gas deposits in the USSR is far below
that of the US. For the same reason, the production of natural gas --
the natural gas actually recovered and utilized -- in oilfields is far
below current US production.
Oilfields in the USSR before World War II were mostly the. older,
shallow fields in which the proportion of natural-gas liquids and
natural gas was much lower than it is in more recently developed fields.
An ever-increasing proportion of the Soviet petroleum production is
from the new, deep fields in the Ural.-Volga basin and from deeper de-
posits in the old producing areas.
This changing condition is reflected in Table 7,* showing distri-
bution of petroleum components in the USSR in percent by weight of
crude oil for selected years. In order to indicate the range of vari-
ation of those components, the same-data for recent years in the US as
a whole and for selected oil-producing states are also shown. The
Soviet data in Table 7 are derived from Tables 8~~ and 9.~~
It will be noted that the 1952 US data on production and withdrawals
of petroleum components in Table 7 check closely with the distribution
of the proved reserves of such components in the oil deposits of the
US, as shown in Table 6.
5. Transportation and Utilization.
This research aid is concerned primarily with the production of
natural gas and natural-gas liquids in the USSR, and aside from limited
data on natural-gas trunk lines, no quantitative data are presented
on the transportation and utilization of these components. Certain
significant qualitative data will be presented in this section, however,
as an aid in appraising the validity of the estimated distribution of
the production of natural-gas liquids and natural gas in the USSR as
shown in Table 1.~'~'~'
Practically all the gas produced in the USSR prior to World War II
was produced in oilfields and used in nearby localities. 29~ Some of
the gas was processed for the recovery of natural gasoline, but the
lighter propanes and butanes were not recovered. Most of the natural
gas and natural-gas liquids were wasted.
*
Table 7 follows
on p.
20.
~~
Table 8 follows
on p.
25?
~-~-~
Table 9 follows
on p.
30.
-~~~~
P . 3, above .
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Wartime and postwar construction of natural-gas trunk lines (see
Table ~+*) has provided a means for developing and utilizing some of
the gas deposits of the USSR and has provided an outlet for increased
quantities of natural gas from oilfields. Because of the greatly in-
creased withdrawals of natural gas in the postwar period from the
newer and deeper oil deposits, however, it is estimated, as shown in
Table 9,*# that the current percentage of oilfield gas conserved and
utilized is actually lower than it was in the immediate prewar period.
This condition cannot be remedied until additional natural-gas trunk
lines are completed.
With respect to natural-gas liquids, the picture is different.
There is a fair volume of fragmentary data indicating that, in ad-
dition to the production of natural gasoline in the USSR, there is a
rapidly expanding utilization of liquefied petroleum gases. These
are the lighter components, mostly propane and butane, which were
not recovered in the prewar period in the USSR. As these lighter
natural-gas liquids, usually designated as LPG, can be distributed
only in pressure containers, their distribution is occasionally noted
in intelligence materials. Therefore, they serve as a valuable
indicator of the total production of natural-gas liquids, as the pro-
duction of natural gasoline is a necessary part of the recovery of
the lighter hydrocarbons comprising the LPG.
The following citations are representative of the fragmentary
intelligence on the distribution and utilization of liquefied
petroleum gases (liquid gas or LPG) in the USSR. It is offered
merely as qualitative evidence and without analysis or evaluation.
Date of
Information Item
19+8
~ P. 9, above.
*~ P. 30, below.
A 1576b FDD u-3088, "Motor Vehicles Operating on
Gas-Filled Cylinder.1? C. Source: Mashinos-
troyeniye, Vol. 11, 19+8. Two types of cylin-
ders are used, low pressure for LPG at 16
atmospheres, and high pressure for compressed
gas at 200 atmospheres. Data given on tank
weights, performance, and the like.
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Date of
Information
19+9 Trud, No. 170, Moscow, 21 Jul lg~+g. U. Calls
for increased distribution and use of LPG and
compressed natural gas.
Trud, No. 27~+, Moscow, 23 Nov 1951. U. De-
scribes Baku LPG station for servicing
railroads.
1952 Kommunist, Baku, 4 Jan 1952. U. Describes
establishment of first LPCx station for
servicing motor vehicles.
1952
1952 Auto-Motor, Budapest, 15 Nov 1952. U. De-
scribes apparatus reportedly in use in the
USSR for converting motor vehicles to use of
LPG.
25X1A2g
2 Mar 1953. C . Review of 25X1 A8a
natural gas resources by Academician Chudakov
points toward greatly expanded use of LPG and
compressed natural gas for all types of mobile
transport.
1953 Izvestiya, "Gas Installations in Cities,"
Moscow, 18 Nov 1953? U. Reviews growth of
gas distribution and utilization and states
that servicing of various cities and settle-
- ments not reached by gas pipe lines will be
done by LPG in cylinders.
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Date of
Information Item
1953 ~ Pravda, Moscow, 26 Nov 1953? U. Amplifies dis-
cussion irk foregoing item naming several cities
to be served by LPG and adds "A large number of
special railroad and trunk tank cars as well as
steel spheres are to be built in 1954 for sup-
plying liquid gas."
1953 CIA 2109636, WDGS R-1332-53. C. Gives details
-for operating on compressed gas the.Soviet
GAZ-51-B truck which is offered for export.
6. Prewar Data.
As a whole, Soviet statistics on prewar petroleum production pre-
sent no serious difficulty in their interpretation. This is partic u-
larly true of the official compilation of statistics covering the period
1927-28 to 1935, published in 193.6 in a single-volume (Socialist Con-
struction in the USSR), which has been fully translated. 30 The
method of presentation of statistics on petroleum production in this
volume is typical of the method followed by the USSR in the prewar
years, including the period 1936-40, although the data are less com-
plete in these latter-prewar years. The first 40 pages of this
538-Page volume are devoted to general tables covering the social and
economic growth of the USSR over the previous several years. These.
data are those most widely quoted in the press and in general economic
articles. The first and most important entry for petroleum production
is in Table 1, "Principal Indices of Socialist Construction in the
USSR," where on page 5 under the subheading "Industry," appears
"Output of crude petroleum and natural gas" with the total quantities
by years shown in thousands. of metric tons. In Table 2, "Summary of
Large-Scale Industry as of 1934," on page 42 under the subheading
"Fuel Extraction" are four entries: 1. coal mining, 2. crude
petroleum production,. 3. peat extraction, and ~+. combustible shales.
As there is no separate entry for natural gas production, it appears
that in this case crude petroleum production includes natural ga,s.
This tends to be verified by the entry for 1934 in Table 1, "Summary
for the Petroleum Industry," page 135, where the gross output in
millions of rubles for crude. petroleum production is shown as 589,
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which checks with the similar entry~on page 42. Here, also, there is
no entry for the value of natural gas production only.
Thus far in Socialist Construction in the USSR 1936, some ambi-
guity has appeared in the meaning of the term crude petroleum
production" when it is related to such items as value of gross output,
.number of, wage earners, and the. like, but it apparently covers both
crude oil and natural gas with the entrained natural-gas liquids.
This ambiguity is resolved in-Table ~+, "Output of ,Petroleum Products
in Physical Units," on page 138. Most of this-table covers refined
petroleum products which are so designated under a subheading, but
the first three entries are "crude oil," "natural gas," and."total
crude oil and gas." The quantities under the last entry-are the
same as those under "Output of crude petroleum and natural gas" in
Table 1 on page 5. As there is in Table 4 no separate item far
natural-gas liquids, it is obvious-that natural gas in this table is
wet natural gas before the extraction of the natural-gas liquids. This
latter item is accounted for in Table 6, "Output of Petroleum Refining
Industry," on page 1~+0, under the designation "Ben.zine obtained from
natural gas. Thus the production of the 3 components,-crude oil,
natural-gas liquids, and natural gas, comprising the total petroleum
production in the USSR, can be definitely identified for the period
covered by this official publication.
One additional column entry of interest in this same volume,
Socialist C-onstruction in the USSR 1936, is in Table 11, "Oil Extrac-
tion: By Methods, page 1 3, under the column entitled "Total
extraction of petroleum," which-shows the same quantities as are
given for crude oil only in Table 4, page 138. This entry indicates
that, despite the other entries which indicated the-inclusion of
natural gas, petroleum can mean crude oil. The main title of Table
11,."Oil Extract- ion,~however, reduces the significance of the
columnar heading, "Petroleum," within the table and is an indication
that natural gas is excluded.
-Table 8~ presents the estimates of prewar -data on production of
petroleum components in the USSR by years from 1927-28 to 19+0.
Sources of data are summarized as follows:
Table follows on p. 25.
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N. N M-Y' .~' -? -y' .~' u1 ~ lf1 In Ifl
O~ O M N OWN N N.'~' l0 oIn~ rl ol(]~ M
~N{{~ ~~ ri~~y~c0~-3 N V~~
.-I rMl~ NNNNNN~mmmNl
F ~ H
~i q u
W ~rOi ~N~
H b #
~Nr~i~~ppNppN ~~O~W~O
~ N N -7 OD M u~
rl .-1 rl ri ?-I ri N
v O O O O~~ N~ N N N N N
~ti~~~~~~~~~~~
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rl r1 ri ri rl r1 N
0
.aI~HH
N v u
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.N o o +~
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The data iri lines l to 8 inclusive, columns 1 to 6 inclusive,
are copied or derived by simple computation from source _31/. .Lines
1 to 8, column 7, are copied directly from source 32/, and columns
8 and 9 are simple additions.
The basic data on production of crude oil in line 9 and lines
11 to 13 are from source 33/, and the basic data on production of
crude ail and total production of petroleum in line l0 are from
source 34/. The total gas production, line 10, column 8, is derived
from source 35/ and the remaining data in lines 9 to 13, columns
1 to 9, are by addition, interpolation, and extrapolation.
The--data in lines 1 to l3, columns l0 to 13, are derived from
reserve data in source 36/ for 1935 (line 8), and the remaining years
are estimated on this same pattern of distribution, varied according
to the annual production of crude oil in column 1. These data on
gross withdrawals are used as a guide in interpolating and extra-
polating data not otherwise available in the remainder of the table.
Data on the production of natural-gas liquids in 1940 (line 13,
column 3) are from a secondary source 37/ which .Cs considered
acceptable for prewar data.
Official Soviet quantitative postwar data on petroleum production
are limited to the 1950 target for the Fourth-Five Year Plan (1946-50),
claimed fulfillment for 1950, goal for 1960, annual increases in 1951,
a.nd production in 1952 and 1953. These quantitative data are supple -
mented by claimed percentage increases over prevzous years. These
quantitative data are summarized as follows:
a. 1950 target for the Fourth Five Year:Plan was stated to be
35.4 million tons of neft' and 8.4 billion cubic meters of natural
gas. 38/
b. 1950 target was fulfilled 10 December 19j0-.and was exceeded
by 2.2 million tons of neft' by the end of 1950? 39/
c. 1960 goal of 60 million tons announced_in Stalin's speech of
9 February 1946. 40/
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d. 1951 statement by Beriya that annual increase in output had
been 4.5 million tons in recent years. 41/
e. 1852 statement by Malenkov to the 18th Party Congress that
1952 production would be 47 millior_ tons and that the 3-year increase
X1949-51) in extraction was 13 million tons. 42/
f. 1953 Production of 52 million tons cited in manifesto of the
Central Committee of the Soviet Communist Party, 10 February 1954. 43/
The 1955 target for the Fifth Five Year Plan has been officially
stated only in terms of an 85-percent increase over 1950. 44/ The
principal discussion of the-Plan directives for the petroleum industry
was in the speech by N.K. Baibakov, Minister of the Petroleum Industry,
on 11 October 1g52. 45/ It may be significant that the only quanti-
tative references in this speech to petroleum production were from
the Stalin goal announced in 1846 of 60 million tons by 1860. In
Baibakov's speech, there are 3 separate references to this 60-million-
ton goal, stressing that it would be reached ahead of schedule. The
60-million-ton goal announced by Stalin in 1846 appears to have been,
and to continue to be, the chief goal of the Soviet petroleum industry.
It is even reported to have been the subject for the Soviet postage
stamp showing an oil-well derrick and the slogan, "60 million tons
of oil annually." 46/
It has-been widely assumed that these quantitative data on
petroleum production in the USSR refer to the output of crude oil. In
view of the Soviet prewar practice of reporting total petroleum produc-
tion crude oil plus natural gas) as the primary output statistic for
the industry, there does not appear to be sufficient evidence to
justify this conclusion.
It appears probable that the practice of assuming that these
Soviet postwar petroleum output data were on crude oil only originated
with a 31 January 19+7 American Embassy despatch from Moscow 47/ which
read, in part: "Total production of crude oil in 1845 was 1qT+ mil-
lion metric tons, excluding gas. LSource: Baku Worker, 29 May 1846_7"
Reference to the source cited in this despatch 48/ reveals it to
be a three-column newspaper report quoting M.C. Koslov, Deputy
Minister of the Petroleum Industry of the Southern and Western Regions
of the USSR. All but one paragraph refer to regional and district
plans. The one paragraph which refers to the Soviet Fourth Five Year
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Plan for the entire petroleum industry is translated as follows:
"The great Stalin Plan task, .said Comrade Koslow, provides for the
5-year period an increase in extraction equivalent to 13 prewar years.
The average annual increase comprises 3.2 million tons, as compared
to 1.4 million tons in the First Five Year Plan grid 1.1 million tons
in prewar years."
The quantity of 19.4 million tons for 194> quoted in the-American
Embassy despatch from Moscow was derived from the statement in the
Baku Worker by subtracting 5 annual increases of 3.2 million tons
each, ~r lb million tons, from the 1950 goal of 35.4 million tons
previously announced for the Fourth Five Year Plan. Identifying this
19.4 million tons as crude oil, however, must have been based upon
some other source. The comparisons given in the Baku Worker to prewar
production-cannot be positively identified either with the production
of crude oil only or-with the total production of petroleum. During
-the 13-year period ending in 1940, the Soviet annual production rate
increased 20.4 million tons for crude oil and 22.4 million tons-for
total petroleum. Neither of these figures is equivalent to the 16-
million-ton annual production increase planned for the 1946-50 period.
During the First Five Year Plan (1928-32), the average annual pro-
. duction increases were 2.23 million tons fvr-crude oil and 2.36
million tons-for total petroleum. Neither of these figures checks
.with-the 1.4 million tons attributed to this period in the Baku
Worker. Selected prewar years will give the l.l-million-ton in-
crease cited in the-Baku Worker for both crude oil (1935-40) and
total petroleum (1932- 0 On the basis of the :source cited in
the Moscow despatch, there appears to be no definite justification
for assuming the 1945 production of 19.4 million tons is crude oil
only, without gas.
The fact that the Fourth Five Year Plan (1946-50) carried
separate quantitative goals for neft' (35.4 million tons) and natural
gas (8.4 billion cubic meters) carries an implication that they are
separate quantities. Because of the Soviet prewar primary reporting
practice of converting gas volumes to weight (metric tons) and adding
this to the crude oil, however, there is some doubt as to whether the
8.4 billion cubic meters of gas is included in tPie 35.4 million tons
of neft' or is over-and above that quantity.
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A search has revealed one publication 49~ indicating that the
8.4 billion cubic meters. of natural gas should be added to the 35.4
million tons of neft' in order to obtain the planned goal for 1950
for total petroleum production. Table 3 on .page 19 of this source
shows growth of fuel extraction in the USSR. A column for the 1950
plan shows for oil and gas (neft' i gaz), 43.8, and a footnote states,
"In numerical value, oil 35. m+r illion tons and gas $.4 million cubic
meters." The footnote is in error, as it should read billion
(milliard) instead of million (million) for the cubic meters of gas.
This error-plus the fact that the author has added weights and volumes
together may throw some doubt on the validity of his data, but there
appears to be no doubt that in obtaining the total goal for the
Fourth Five Year Plan, he intended to show these two petroleum com-
ponents as additive.
In order to establish a basis far estimating postwar production
of petroleum components in the USSR, the following assumptions have
been made:
a. That the 1950 goal of 35.4 million tons of neft', and the over-
fulfillment of this goal to the amount of 37.6 million tons for 1950,
represents crude-oil production only. It should be noted that the
basis for this assumption, as given in the foregoing analysis and
citations, refers exclusively to the goal of 35.4 million tons, and
not necessarily to tie fulfillment of 37.6 million tons.
b. That the .1955 goal of an 85-percent increase over 1950 refers
numerically to 37.6 as a base, and therefore indicates a goal of
9. million tons of neft' for 1955
c. That the 1955 goal, derived as in b, above, at 69.6 million
tons, represents total petroleum production -- that is, crude oil,
plus natural-gas liquids, plus natural gas.
d. That the 60-million-ton goal announced by Stalin in 1946 for
attainment by 1960 (or before) refers to crude oil.
On the basis of these assumptions, supplemented by estimated
gross withdrawals of natural-gas liquids and natural gas from oil-
fields, by estimated gasfield gas production based on natural-gas
trunk line capacities, and by other fragmentary data cited, the
estimates and forecasts of Soviet postwar petroleum production by
components have been derived and are shown in Table 9.~-
~ Table 9 follows on p.,,30.
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A q q
+~ o O
.a .~ H
al '~i vOi
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7. O W ~ O 00000 rl NAM n'i.~
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~~~~~010~1~0~~~~
r-I rl ri r-I ri r-I ri rl ri rl ri
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0\ rf ~O Q~ ~`'1 [~- ri ~n O~ cry L~
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This methodology provides what appears to be a reasonable balance
between the three components of petroleum production -- crude oil,
natural-gas liquids, and natural gas -- in the postwar USSR, con-
sidering the probable economic capabilities to find, develop, and
utilize-these components.
With respect to production of crude oil (column 1, Table 9), this
method gives a relatively constant net annual increase after 1948,
when the postwar restoration of the old producing properties is
thought to have been largely completed. After that time, a constantly
increasing proportion of Soviet petroleum production has come from
new fields, resulting in the steady increase in annual percentage de-
cline~caused by depletion. This has demanded a constantly increasing
effort on the part of the Soviet petroleum industry to overcome
depletion and to gain a constant net increase in production, as shown
in Table 9. There are insufficient data on postwar depletion of
petroleum deposits in the USSR to compute-its exact effect, but by
analogy with US experience 50/ the data in-Table 10~ present an
estimate of the effect of such postwar depletion on the gross annual
increases required in order to meet the estimates of the production
of crude oil given in Table 9.
Thus, as indicated in Table 10, because of the effect of deple-
tion, the effort required to maintain a new annual increase of 4
million tons in 1955 is approximately double the effort required for
the same increase in 1948.
The estimates of postwar production of na.tuxal-gas liquids from
oilfields (column 2, Table 9) are based- upon .estimated gross with-
ctrawals of this component, shown in column 12, Table 9, and the a~-
sumed effect of the conservation or "hermetization" program, which
has been actively pushed since 1949-50. Large losses of natural-gas
liquids were recognized before World War II 51/ and were again
mentioned immediately after the war. 52/ Hermetic sealing of oil
wells was planned on a wide scale in the Fourth Five Year Plan. 53/
Beginning in 1949, 5~?/ there is increasing evidence that conservation
of natural-gas liquids has been Widely applied. 55/ This is re-
fleeted in the estimated percent recovery of available natural-gas
liquids. noted in column 13, Table 9. The recovery of natural-gas
liquids from the relatively dry natural gases produced in Soviet
gasfields is assumed to be negligible, as indicated in column 3,
Table 10 follows on p. 32.
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Estimated Gross Annual Increases Required in Crude Oil Production
in the USSR
1945-55
Assumed Annual Decline
Caused by Depletion
Year
__
Production
of Crude Oil a/
(Million Metric
Tons)
Per-
cent
Quantity
(Million Metric
Tons)
Net.Annual
Increase
(Million Metric
T
)
Indicated Gross Annual.
Increase Required
ons
_
(Million Metric Tons)
19!+5
lg . 4
10
1946
1947
21.7
6
10
1.94
2.3
4
2
1948
2
.0
4
10
2.17
4.3
.
6
1949
29.
33.6
10
11
2.60
3.4
.
6 0
1950
37.6
12
4
0
7.4
1951
41.6
13
.
3
4
8
4.0
8.0
1952
45.6
14
.
g
4.0
8.9
1953
4g.6
15
6
84
4.0
9.8
1954
6
53
.
4.0 -
10.8
1955
.
6
15
7.44
4.0
11.4
n
57.
15
8.04
4.0
12.0
rom Table 9, P? 30, above.
Table 9, and shown in more detail in column 10, Table 11.E The avail-
ability of natural-gas liquids shown as "Propanes and Heavier" in
column 8, Table 11, is based on published analyses of natural gas
from Soviet gasfields. 56~
The postwar estimates of natural-gas production in the USSR shown
in column 8, Table g, are based on a 19+5 figure derived from an un-
official Soviet source. 57~ This source stated that the 1950 goal for
the production of natural gas was three times the 19+5 production.
This statement indicates a 19+5 production of one-third of 8.~+ billion
cubic meters, or 2.8 billion cubic meters. This author also stated
P. 3~eiow.
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that the 1950 goal for production of natural gas was 4.5 billion
cubic meters, indicating a 1945 production of only 1.5 billion cubic
meters. The higher estimate of 2.8 billion cubic meters, however, is
used for 1945 and is equivalent to the 2.3 million :tons shown in
Table 9, line 1, column 8. The remaining estimates of total produc-
tion of natural gas, in column 8 for 1946 through 1953, are based on
the official Soviet claims of percentage increases for each year
over the preceding year. 58/ The increase for the full year 1953 i~
based upon the first 6 months, as the official announcement of ful-
fillment of the 1953 Plan failed to mention natural gas. 59/ Fore-?
casts of production of natural gas for 1954 and 1955 are. extrapolated
to meet the Fifth Five Year Plan increase of 80 percent, or 7 million
tons in 1955? To attain-this forecast of production of natural gas
in 1954 and 1955 will require substantial expansion of natural-gas
trunk-line capacity.- According to the Fifth Five Year-Plan, in
1955 the "conveyance by pipeline should be approximately fivefold"
that of 1950, 60/ so this 1955 goal for natural gas may be attained.
Table 11,-~ sho~~ring data on natural-gas trunk lines in the USSR, is
used as a basis for estimating that portion of natural gas produced
in gasfields_and shown in column 7 of Table 9. Then the natural gas
produced and utilized from oilfields is the difference between columns
7-and 8, which is shown in column 6, Table 9. The data. on natural-
gas lines in the USSR shown in Table 11 have been drawn from various
.sources. 61/ They are intended to be used only as a basis for esti-
mating Soviet production of natural gas from gasfields and do not
represent a complete survey of gas pipe lines in the USSR.
The gross withdrawals of natural gas and natural-gas liquids from
oilfields, shown in columns 10 and 12, Table 9, correspond t,o the
prewar data in columns 10 and 12, Table 8. There are no postwar data
on proved petroleum reserves in the USSR, however, so these gross
withdrawals-have been estimated as follows:
For 1950, it was assumed that the gross withdrawals from oil-
fields in the USSR of wet natural gas -- natural gas plus natural-gas
liquids -- was about 43 percent by weight of the crude oil. This
is substantially the same distribution as is shown in Table 6-~ for
oilfields in the US. This 1950 distribution'is continued for the
years 1951-55. For 1945.the gross withdrawals of natural-gas
liquids plus natural gas represent 23 percent by weight of crude oil.
-~ Table 11 follows on p . 34 .
~* P.18, above.
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o Oti~~O~ .?I
~
Nr~-~~h-a~0
~I
NOO~N~
~NNm~D
O~
r-
r-I
Nv~NgC~O
-0
~ N N u~ O~ N
~
c~?1
v
4 6 N m O d
zz z
+-'~ O N n> ~ O
v -~~#~~ N
~~ ~~~~
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This. is slightly higher-than is shown in Table 8 for 1940 and recog-
nines the increased proportion of production from the Ural-Volga
fields in 19+5. The grass withdrawals of natural gas and natural-gas
liquids, as a percent of the weight of the crude oil, is interpolated
for the years 1946-49 between the values for 1945 and 1950.
The weakest point in this method is the assumption that 1950
gross withdrawals of petroleum components from oilfields in the USSR
follow the same pattern as in tree US. There is, however, some
justification for this assumption. Based on the average weight of
wet gas produced in Soviet oilfields of 1.267 tons per thousand
cubic meters,: as derived from published gas analyses, 62~-the average
gas ,factor corresponding to production of wet gas equivalent to ~+3
percent by weight of oil, is equal to 300 cubic meters of gas per
cubic meter of oil. A reference dictionary for petroleum engineers
and geologists published in Moscow in 1952 63~ defines the gas factor
as the quantity of gas in cubic meters produced with 1 cubic meter
of oil.- This .authority states that large gas factors are character-
istically of the order of 1,000 to 2,000 cubic meters of gas per cubic
meter of oil, and even higher. It adds that very often gas factors
are 100 to 200, and with the very small quantities of gas in the de-
posit, the gas factor may be 5 to 10 or lower. With an ever-increasing
proportion of Soviet production of crude oil coming from the newer
and deeper deposits, .with their characteristically high gas-to-oil
ratios (US terminology), or gas factors (Russian terminology), the
assumption on which the gross withdrawals of natural gas plus natural-
gas'liquids are estimated in Table 9 is probably justified.
The distribution of gross withdrawals between natural gas and
natural-gas liquids, shown in Table 9, is based on rather complete
published analyses of natural gases in the USSR. 64~
8. Range of Postwar Data.
The estimates of the postwar production of petroleum components
in the USSR, shown in Table 9, are based on certain assumptions which
have been stated in the foregoing analyses of these data. TYiere is
no way to test the absolute validity of those assumptions. Therefore,.
it is desirable to present the minimum and maximum values which would
result from the extreme assumptions which might be made each way
concerning the fragmentary data on postwar petroleum production in the
USSR. These extreme assumptions are:
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Maximum Values: all claims and goals referring to production. of
neft' in the .USSR apply -exclusively to "the production of crude oil;
.Minimum Values: all the foregoing claims and goals apply ex-
clusively to petroleum production --.crude oil, ,plus natural-gas.
liquids, plus natural gas.
By retaining the basic distribution pattern between components
developed in Table 9~ the data shown in Table 12~ have been computed
for maximum and minimum values in accordance with the extreme assump-
tions described above. The estimated values shown in Table 12 are
those derived in-Table 9.
As more data on the production of petroleum i.n the USSR in the
postwar period become available, and as available data are subjected
to additional analysis, the-estimates presented herein will be revised..
Tt appears unlikely, however, that future revisions will fall outside
the minimum and maximum limits, shown in Table 12, for crude oil or
total petroleum. Future revisions of the production of natural-ga.s
liquids and natural-gas, particularly for the 195+-55 forecasts of
prbduction of natural.-gas, may depart substantially from the values
shown.
~ Table 12 follows on p. 3'7.
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N O Q! ~
Ul ~~
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