SE-38: SOVIET BLOC CAPABILITIES AND PROBABLE COURSES OF ACTION IN ELECTROMAGNETIC WARFARE

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CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7
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RIPPUB
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S
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38
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December 12, 2016
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January 17, 2002
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11
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April 28, 1953
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SE
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Approved For Regfetse 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A114900020011-7 sncuRITY. INFORMATION CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 28 April 1953 SE-38: SOVIET BLOC CAPABILITIES AND PROBABLE musts CT ACTION IN ELECTROMAGNETIC WAPYARE Appendix As Evaluation of Economic Factors I. INTRODUCTION From an economic point of view, the telecommunications resources of the Bloc consist of two principal components: (a) the radio and wire communication systems in being, including operating equipment, technical personnel, essential services and supplies, notably electric powers and (b) the communications equip- memt industry, including its plant facilities, manpower, and supporting sources of essential materials and power. The present physical capa- bilities of the Bloc for waging electromagnetic warfare are determined almost exclusively by the first component, particularly by the quantity, technical characteristics, and geographic distribution of the oper- ating equipment. Bloc capabilities, moreover, could be increased by diverting to electromagnetic warfare communications resources now used for a variety of purposes. The communications industry is important prima- rily as a determinant of the Blocgs ability to improve and expand its dec4romagnetic warfare capabilities over the longer run. OSD REVIEW COMPLETED Approved For Release 2002/08/Mak-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For Re!Owe 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A00(00020011-7 SECRET II* PRESENT BLOC RESOURCES IN Ao Facilities 20 The Bloc operates extensive telecommunications facilities to support its domestic, intra-Bloc, and international activities over some 12 million square miles. Wire and radio facilities are readily available at practically all important military headquarterso 3. The principal wire and radio facilities of the Bloc are shown on the accompanying maps. Figure 1 shows the principal wire lines and more than 2,300 fixed radio station locations; Figure 2 shows the location of over 1,000 aeronautical radio communication stations (212 with radio navigation aid facilities), 333 maritime radio communication stationc, and 103 maritime radio navigation aid facilities. The stations spotted on Figure 2 all operate or serve mobile radio units (aircraft, vessels, and vehicles)* 4. Al]. transmitters capable of emitting radio signals are potential jammers* It is estimated that the Bloc os wire and radio communication systems as a thole comprise SYMO 9,600 significant transmitters. A complete breakdown of this total by type of service is not available, tut Table 1 summarizes certain aggregate statistics on the Blocs tele. communications system. SECRET Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For Releaw- 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A004F020011-7 SECRET 5. The basic telephone and telegraph system of each Bloc coun- try, employing both wire and radio, is Integrated nationally- and ser- yiese primarily the state authority. Each of these systems in turn shows some integration into one massive Blocwide system with Moscow as the focal point. The basic system serves the general political, social, commercial, and military needs of the Bloc. In addition, there are functional systems, in the main connected with the basic system, which meet the need for security, police, industrial, aeronautical, maritime, meteorological, and military operations. 6. In the basic system alone there are believed to be over 30 main radio and wire centers in the USSR, 14 in Communist China, and some 36 in the Satellites. For the handling of international point-to- point radio and wire communications, there are believed to be 12 gate- way cities* in the USSR, 28 in Communist China, and 30 in the Satellites. Table 2 is a tabulation of reported Bloc international telecommunications circuits. 7. Large areas east of the Urals and north of the Trane-Siberian Railroad, as well as wide areas of Communist China, remain uncovered MibitOMIV?011??=111111???????????=4? * Gateway cities are cities with through international radio and/or wire channels. - 3 - SECRM Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For Re!Age 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A00W0020011-7 SEZRET or thinly covered by wire lines and depend largely or wholly on radio for rapid comanications. The present long-range civil radio network of the USSR handles 1$ percent of the traffic volume between the major cities along the Trans-Siberian Railroad and 80 percent of traffic north of the railroad. This system is equipped with numerous direc- tional, high-gain antenna arrays which decrease susceptibility to jamming. Aeronautical and .maritime networks are more vulnerable to. jamming because of lower power and lets directional antennas. 8n Bloc dependence on radio is not limited to the areas lacking wire lines$ mobile units are almost completely dependent on radio for rapid communications and for certain navigational services. Radio also is used heavily between many points within the Bloc which are connected by wire. 9. The USSR employs radio more intensively and extensively than any other country in the world. Cksuauniet Chines use of radio is relatively inconsequential as compared with that of the USSR, but low powered radio stations of). KW or less are located at many wire junctions and supplement wire facilities. On the other hands, the EUropean Bloc except for Albania) is well served by wire facilities, and does not depend on radio so extensively. SECRET Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For ReleSet 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A0020020011-7 SEMET 10. The Blot, mass aural radiobroadcasting systems make heavy demands on radio facilitiee. Domestic services use at least 400 radio transmittere, employing a wide range of powers and operating in the low, mediumand high frequency bands below 30 megacycles (see Table 3). Some of theme transmitters probably are employed at times in the jamming operation. The international service is itself considerable (see Table 4), though the number of transmitters employed for this service alone is not known. 11, are lines play an increasingly significant role in Mop mass aural domestic radiobroadcasting service. They are used to relay broadcasting programs between some cities. More important, however, is their use for the distribution of broadcasting programa to loud- speakers. Such wire lines are generally independent and separate from those used for telephony and telegraphy. Radiobroadcasting citations are directly connected by wire with loudspeakers in their vicinity. The wire link is also used to transmit programs to distant wire-diffusion exchanges to which loudspeakers are connected. Tore remote areas are served by wire-diffusion exchanges which pickup programs by radio, amplify them? and distribute them to wired loud- speakers. Table 5 gives estimates of the number and character of Bloc reception facilities for 1952 and 1953. SECRET Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For Relettet 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A004,900020011-7 SECRET 12. A possibly significant addition to the Bloc conenutications eyetem is represented by the development daring the last 3 years of microwave radio relay equipment of predominantly 8-channel type. This equipment permits highly directional transmission at extremely high frequencies, with relay stations required at line-of-sight distances. It provides much greater security from hostile interference and anew interception. B. ProductlEELEILIWIE!. 13. The Bloc electronics industry comprieea an estimated 120 to 150 plants in the USSR and over 135 plants in East Gernany, Czecho- slovakia, and Hungary. Approximately 85 percent of the plants are engaged in the assembly of end products and major subassemblies? and the remainder in production of tubes and other component parte. 14, It is estimated that the total production of the Bloc elec- tronics industry in 1.952 was 475o million at US prices. Approximately three-fourths of the electronics equipment prodnoed in the Bloc is allocated to military needs, and the remainder to civilian needs. 15. The Bloc produces nearly all its own transmitter equipment. Most of the production is from 12 known plants in the USSR, but East German and Hungarian production is also significant. East German - 6 - Approved For Release 2002/ IA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For Releleet 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A0019690020011-7 SECRET production for the period 19504952 was approximately 600 transmitters with a total. .rated power exceeding 2,500 KW. Of particular importance because of their high power were 9 units ranging from 100 to 500 KW and 17 units ranging from 3 to 50 KW. Hungarian factories are reported to have produced 700 transmitters (5 of which ranged between 120 and 135 Vi)for the USSR during 1949-1951. 16.. It is estimated that the Bloc produced 64 million electron tubes of all types in 1952, neatly 3 million of which were transmitting And other special tubes (see Table 6). There has been no indication since 1950 that the Bloc transmitter program has been hampered tar Shortages of tube manufacturing facilities In fact, East Germany has a capacity to produce transmitting tubes which is currently not being fully utilized. 17. It is estimated that the Bloc has produced about 21,700 micro- wave equipment units (oath unit comprising a transmitter and a receiver) during the period 1949-1952. Approximately 1,750 units were produced in East Germany (see Table 7) and the remainder are believed to have been produced in the USSR. There is no evidence of microwave equipment production in the Satellites other than East Germany. .18. Production of all types of civilian radio receivers in the Bloc increaaed from slightly more than], million sets in 1948 to about - 7 - Approved For Release 2002/08/13 ? CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 S kin ? Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Nftrad NOW S MR,}2 1.6 million seta in 1951. During the same period the output of short- wave receivers decreased from 8252000 to roughly 6502000 sets. This decrease does not indicate any special difficulty encountered by the Bloc in producing short-wave sets, but probably reflects an effort to reduce the availability of those types of radio sets capable of receiving Western broadcasts. 19. Bloc production of telecommunications wire line equipment is adequate to maintain existing wire oommunication systems and to expand them in accordance with published plans. However, despite the rapid expansion of wire and cable plants since 19481 the Bloc is dependent on imports for 20 percent of its wire and cable. Production of wire could be greatly increased if raw copper were diverted from other uses. The Bloc requires an estimated 814,000 metric tons of -copper for its current production of both communitations and industrial wire and cable. This requirement represents over -- percent of the Bloc's production of copper, estimated at 3232600 metric tone. Bloc production is supple - merited by an estimated 802000 metric tons of imported copper in the form of crude metal and wire and cable* .1.11.4Y1131.. .........40.1????????????? * Of the 1.6 million receivers produced in 19512 4502000 were relatively insensitive crystal receivers. - 8 - S ECRET Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For Releasot 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A00849,0020011-7 SECRET 20. Soviet dependence on Western imports of critical electric and electronic test equipment is rapidly decreasing. In 1951 the estimated total of imports was $14 million, or 2 percent of Bloc production of electronic equipment. These imports included large shipments of transmitter equipment and tubes for some components of Which the Bloc is still partly dependent on foreign mimes. 21. Present trade controls have kept the Blocos imports of electronic equipment below the 1951 level. However, significant quantitiee of materials, and certain machines, required in the manu- facture of tubes and components are still being imported. Many of the materials in this trade, such as refractory metals and diamond dies, are difficult to interdict effectively because of the small tonnages involved. C. Electric Power Supply 22. Only a small percentage of Bloc total electric energy pro-. duction ie consumed by telecommunications facilities. There are no indications of a shortage of electric power having affected the oper- ation of Bloc telecommunications. Electrical power services are available from central stations to most of the Bloc area west of the Urals and to certain limited Bloc Asiatic areas. In regions without central station - 9 - SECRET Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 'Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Nomi SBIRET supply, power must be obtained from more localised sources such as generators or batteries. Conaequently, in large areas of Siberia and China it might be difficult to insure reliable rapid communications services under conditions of sudden heavy demand. D, Manpower Resources. 23. Through stepped-up training programa, the USSR by 1950 had largely overcome the more critical postwar shortages of skilled workers. It is estimated that 4,600 electrical engineers are now being graduated annually from college-level inititutions? and 109000 technicians from advanced communications achools. 24. The Bloc would not encounter a serious manpower Shortage in Increasing its electromagnetic warfare activities. The total number of workers in the Bloc electronics and telecommunications manufacturing industries is estimated as 292,000 for 1951, and 372,000 by the end of 1952, Non-military personnel operating the communications facilities of the USSR are estimated at 600,000. The military services and the radio amateur group are additional sources of trained manpower. -10- S ELM' Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For Rele4se 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A00(000020011-7 SECRET III. BLOC CAPABILITIES FOR WARDED FLMTROMAGNETIC WARFARE A. Diversion of Telecommunications Facilities from Normal ce 25. It is believed that the Bloc could increase its current jamming effort by use of reserve transmitters, by more efficient use of facilities and serviced', and by diverting traffic to alternative media. While it is estimated that roughly 1,000 to 2,000 additional transmitters could be employed for jamming parpoeed without significantly impairing Bloc telecommunications, the extent to which transmitters could be so diverted depends on the number of hours of jamning operation, the time of day, the target area, and the location and technical character- istics of the transmitters available. 26. It is not possible to determine the precise degree of diversion of transmitters which each of the msasures discussed below might permit. The estimated ability of the Bloc to use these measures is based in part on analogical comparisons with operational procedures standards in other countries. Also., some of these measures may already have been exploited to some extent in support of the current Bloc jamming operation. SECRET Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For Re!Oboe 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A0081400020011-7 swim ao Use of Reserve Transmitters Most countries provide reserve transmitters for their main radio Oations in order to insure continuity of service; each of the Bloc stations probably has at least two transmitters. It is also likely that the Bloc has a considerable number of transmitters in strategic reserve. In addition9 there are probably a number of transmitters actually in service which are potentially an additional reserve such transmitters would include unite engaged in threw traffic to conceal operational surges in traffic, in other types of decep- tion traffice,and in training radio operators on live circuits. b. Rationalization of Transmitter Facilities, It is estimated that there are hundreds of lightly loaded services which do not require the use of their transmitters on a 24-hour stand-by basis and thus could provide many hours of jamming service Release of such transmitters might be obtained by redncing the number of transmitters at a single location operating in different ;services. Additional use of transmitters also could be gained by increasing within limits the speed of tele- graphic tranemiseion, and/or by increasing the channel capacities served by a single transmitter. Approved For Release 2002/08/13? :111AARDP79S01011A000900020011-7 SMUT Approved For ReIgaw 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000W0020011-7 SECRET Co IT2Ergar112!!!!!ik-A5.22-22ta0-211211-Ved.Serlirice The output of transmitter facilities would be greatly increased by flattening out the 24-hour traffic load curve, and accepting some delays in less essential service. For example, a substantial number of trans mitten; could be released by the reduction of the number of points involved in direct intercommunication. d. Reduction of Nonessential Services and Use of Alternative Diversion of non-official private messages from point-to- point rapid communications services to the mails would release some radio transmitters and wire lines for higher priority messages. In addition, the Bloc probably could divert a number of transmitters now engaged in mass aural radiobroadcasting. The reduction of aural radiobroad- casting would be offset to some extent by continued expansion of the extensive wire-diffusion network developed for carrying programs to loudspeakers. Present dependence on radio for rebroadcasting to wire-diffusion centers is decreasing and could be overcome by further extension of wire and by forwarding program transcriptions by physical means. Approved For Release 2002/08/1330M4DP79S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For Release 2002/08/13: CIA-RDP79S01011A0*600020011-7 BEL' REV co Rescheduling of Essential Radio Services The radio communication services which the Bloc would continue to maintain under conditions of extended electromagnetic warfare could be rescheduled as to time, area, frequency band, and/or transmitter assignment in such away as to improve the availability and freedom of action of facilities for jamming operations. B. Diversion of Production of 27. It is believed that the Bloc electronics industry could provide for substantial increases in the production of transmitters for jamming by cutting back non-essential electronics production. For example, the cost of producing 1,000 standard 10-Ed communications voice transmitters, which are entirely adequate for jamming operation, is estimated at approximately $22 million at US prices. This cost represents about 3 percent of the total value of output of the Bloc electronics industry for 1952, or about 12 percent of the 1952 value of Blop non-military elec.- tronics output. The production of the first additional 1,000 tram- mitters in a year could probably, be undertaken without serious displace.: ment in the industry; production of jammers at higher razes would entail serious diversion of resources and production. SECRET Approved For Release 2002/08/13: CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 I Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A00Q2p0020011-7 SECRE'T 28. The Bloc would encounter at least a short-run difficulty in expanding significantly its output of communications cable and wire. Supplies of raw copper already are tightly allocated because of Bloc dependence on imports. C. Diversion of Manpower 29. Most ManpoWerreqeirements for expanded electromagnetic war- fare could be met without difficulty by the reallocation of personnel in the existing communications services and electronic equipment indUstry. D. Pr_.2s.imIs_iovelL.the Next.2.1e_ars 30. The natural rate of growth of rapid communications facilities will yield a sizable increase in Bloc capabilities. Output of electron tubes, the best indicator of electronic capability, is expected to increase over 100 percent in value terms during the next 2 years (see Table 6) We estimate that microwave radio equipment production (see Table 7), wire-diffusion networks (see Table 5).0 and wire line and coaxial cable construction will expand rapidly. Some increases also are expected in existing wire line capacities. If electromagnetic warfare were to receive greater emphasis in production planning with particular attention to reducing dependence on radio communication below 30 megacycles, Bloc capabilities could be significantly increased. SECRET Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 ? Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 S..r-Ceum- Table 1 Tabulation of retimates on the Soviet floc Telecommunications System (P,adio Telegrnnh, Telenhons, Telenhoto) 19460 P60452 tattle Sys ? ,...,....?????????0?R Woneters of -Wire 11/ 'Thousands) 2; Radio Transmitters (All Services) . .; Radio 'blue:matters aroadcasting Ser- Radio Stations in Point -to-Point Service 5, Radio Stations 1- 9. kw 2 - 30 mc 6. Radio Stations 10 - 19 kw , 2 30 me Radio Stations 20 kw & Over 2 - 30 me Conver- sations,? 'Dotal All gypes (Millions) 9. Telegrams? Total All Types (Millions) as 3,000 (1952) 7,150 (1952) 168 (1952) 1,490 (1951) NoA0 N0Ao 425 (1951) Ej 132 (1951) 283.5 (1951) s re h, tthae of the stations in the point-to-point .service for thrt European Setellites end 277 for Commwaist China are helm the 1-kllowatt (kw) minimum power covered for radios in linss 5,0 6, and?. 0. The mssn has submitted a total of 425 notifications to the tntermational Telecommunications Union (XTVY) for call letters .for radio transmitters of 15-kw power or more in the frequency range from 6 to 13 megacycles (mc). 16 - Approved For Release 2002/0N11.4c,,OktRIZP79S01011A000900020011-7 European Satellites Communlet Chtna 30,000 (1952) 6o0 (1952) 1,250 (1952) 1,210 (1952) 105 (1952) 149 (1952) 100 (1951) .1_,/ 328 (1950) y 63 (1951) 41. (1951) 11 (1951) 8 (1951) 17 (1951) a (1951) 144 (1951) 605 (1951) 51 (1951) )4.3 (1946) Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 l!able 2 Tabulation of Reported Soviet Bloc International Telecommunications Circuits a/ 1 january 1952 Mater of NuMber of Circuits Number of Bloc Gateway tatal Number or with Other Bloc Countries Contacted Cities in Tots1 Number Circuits Coomtries Country of Countries Radio Radio Wire Country Shown Contacted Radio Wire Radio ..e.?????????? Wirt Only UssR 12 30 35 32 11 If 3 Albania 2 5 3 If 2 1 0 ,.;, 1 East Austria 1 20 11 3 2k 2 2 3 BUlgarbs 1 16 13 26 6 5 1 1 5 China 28 30 73 42 15 14 2 2 1 Czechoslovakia 5 35 35 110 7 45 if 2 3 East GermBUY 3 16 11 7 7 2 0 7 1 IlUngarY if 27 55 8 28 3 3 .2 s Poland 8 22 21 39 7 19 if 2 Rumania 6 17 19 30 8 3.9 if 1 -,paermmenitra0M.I.F. Taken from RIC- 2 APPe Se. - 17 ilea& MO. pal. Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 '41?1 Ditakk 3 Estimated Nombitr of Transuittars Used for RadlObroadoasting by the Soviet floc !,./ (L Low-Frequency; M Madium-Frequeney; H Eigh4rRquency) 15 Amory 1953 -,....4,..../...*+???11.012.15, No. of Cit/es Having Trans- Fre- quency lowatm_ glitters Bend .01-4 SR 87 L 8 m 15 I! 24 Albania 6 L m 4 II 5 Ft 6 L Austria M 6 B 4 eolgaria 3 L m H 6o L M lio /I 21 Czecbo- 14 L a tovakia? M 9 H Rest L Aermany M 14 H ?Amory 5 L m 3. II Poland 11 L M 2 U 5 14 2 totels 215 Power in Kilowatts Tot,..1; 5-19 20-99 100.199 200-422 500 Sub- & Orier totals 13 20 15 13 12 20 9 10 7 44 57 66 167 10 1 5 5 1 7 144 6 1 2 1 2 149 3 1 114 lo 4 35 1 3 2 6 1 21 1 1 2 1 1 3 5 1 1 14 3 3 10 3 3 7 1 2 3 1 2 6 lo 5 5 1 1 lo 2 3 1 6 3. 3 fl 4 Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 .9004?10?101110. Approved For Re%age 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A086111100020011-7 Table Tabulation of it on Soviet lam International Aural Radlobroadcasting Services 3. January 1953 ,...ranwerspw.rocomentarmolvn*Inrcwe4almaftememeatmoosnowlonomm.,???ennwor.ter No. of Citiea Broadcasting in Country Shown Averaee Number of Programs Average Daily Program us at No of Different Langsegss Used. Frequency Band Used Low Medium EA CIBBS Albania East Austria 1 1 229 26 .1 .0 102 8 35 11 X X x x Bulgaria 1. 30 18 11 x x China 2 brl 22 14 Czechoslovakia 3. 55 29 14 East Cern:Bey 2 Hungsay 1 46 27 12 x x Poland 1 78 45 13 x x Rurasnia 2. 16 10 9 Totale II ,E, rt7-74EN77. 'fir-0 t : ?-"ECWA?v. ppiin-AWC-117.? 261 - 19 S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA--RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 RitarsoMMINIMMIPARIVIPAI. Approved For Release 2002i/..t,3..a4IRDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Table 5 Estimate of the BUMber and Character of Soviet Bloc Aural Radidbroadcasting Reception. Facilities 1952-53 ?Amite 1952W Wire-Diffusion ystems 1953 ?i Wire-Diffusion Systems -------Ig--Coup ..12:251..:. Loudspeakers Radio Receivers .Exchanges Loudspeakers Radio Receivers USSR 36,500 109000,000 4,500,000 40,000 10,500,000 5,000,000 Albania 100 LA0 19,000 100 Ift,A. 20,000 Bqlgaria 891 114,595 2509000 1,100 1439000 26c000 China (Thousands) &A, 190009000 (Thousands) Iii..4, 1,000,000 Czechoslovakia LA. 500,000 2,600,000 NA, 500,000 297309000 East Austria LA0 LA0 2/ 900,000 MA. N.A., 950400c East Germany LAO N.A0 2/ 440004000 N0A0 LAO 411000000 RUngary NA. 16(v)oo 627,000 N0A0 190,000 635,000 Poland 7,450 725,000 102500000 8.v000 7854,00o 1,,330ls000 Rumania 200 100,000 3004000 300 150s000 3l0. 000 Total Bloc .1594469000 335,00- a. The 1952 estimates are from EM-R.1.24 Appendix J. S. b. The 1953 estimates are projected from CR estimates for previous years. c. Fragmentary reports indicate that wire-diffusion systems are also under development in these' countries, Y. 91.1 Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 `lald Year 1951 1952 1955 Table 6 Taal Estimated. Output of Electron Ubes in the SovietBloc" (Bate of Output at End Year) 1951-52,? 1955 AllemeseeverimgrierieNwa t=fiVansmitting end Rather of Tithes Dollar Way, amber 62 2.4 50 64 115 82 170 ? 2.9 5.5 a. ir put capaci y quent 'or ',cause manufacturing variables. These figures are based oa forthcoming supplement to CIA/HR 7, The Electron Tube Zndustry in the Soviet Bloc 29 Augm132.-171)?-- ZIM1rroMW.04fidopted on the basis of the analysis of plant output rather than analysis of plant capacity. *A- Table 7 Estimated Production of'. Microwave Radio Equipment in East Germany 1949-55 Tear 1949-50 1951 .1952 1953 1954 1955 Units Amount fis. 500 500 750 1000 1500 11800 a. Pm?du-al?on is expressed in equipment units. Each unit includes a transmitter and receiver. Approved For Release 2002/08/13 ii1A-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For Reletwe 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A00V0020011-7 SECRET Security Information 5E-38: SOVIET BLOC CAPABILITIES AND PROBABLi. COURSES OF ACTION IN ELECTIMMETIC YvARFARE Appendix B: Evaluation of Technical Factors I. BLOC ELECTROMAGNETIC WARFARE ACTIVITIES TO DATE A. Extent and Techniques of Broadcast Jamming 1. Short wave jamming was first directed against Russian- language VOA and BBC programs on 3 February 1948, and continued on a moderate scale during the next year. On 24 April 1949 jamming action was greatly stepped up.* Frequency ranges were extended to include medium and long wave broadcasts, the number of jammers employed was increased, and jamming was extended geographically through the coverage of Satellite and Finnish languages. sources eXc" crre_z_e of,programs jammed included Aadio Free Europe, Radio Free Asia, and Vatican City. In 1953 Hebrew and Turkish language programs have also been jammed. 2. In general, the jamming has been directed against programs intended for reception within the Bloc area. However, on 30 January 1953 a Danish long wave broadcasting station was jammed while carrying a domestic program in Danish which the Soviet Minister had stated was insulting. *OSI-1- 0 "Historical Developments in the Jamming of the VOA by the USSR", CIA, 20 January 1950 Approved For Release 2002/08/13. OlAaRDP79S01011A000900020011-7 SECRET Approved For Reledepe 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A004/900020011-7 SECRET 3. Broadcast signals ranging in frequency from 230 kc. to 21.7 mc. have been reported jammed. The jamming signal is usually a relatively narrow band so that it will not be likely to affect neighboring channels. The jammers in use at the present time have very wide variations in power output, depending upon the frequency of operation and the type of coverage intended. Output ranges from a possible low of 1 kw. to highsiof 50 to 200 kO. on high frequencies and to 500 kw. on medium or low frequencies. 4. 'We estimate that the number of transmitters employed for jamming is approximately 900. The majority of the jamming stations are in the European USSR; a relatively small number are in the Satellites. The USSR has at various times diverted transmitters from domestic program service to jamming, and has jammed even when -it'-covered domestic programs. Cooperation between the USSR and Satellites, and between Satellites, is indicated by use of jammers in one bloc country to cover programs directed to another. 5. Control of 30% to 40% of the jammers is immediate and flexible so that they can follow changes in schedule or frequency, often within a minute or less. This reveals existence of an , efficient monitor control network. Control of the remaining jammers is apparently less direct since they do not quickly respond to changes -- sometimes not for several days. The organization - 2 - Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : shtEF'79S01011A000900020011-7 25X1C Approved For ReleUe 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A00Q40020011-7 SECRET responeible for the control of the jamming of VOA has not been positively determined. However, responsibility for basic policy probably is assigned to the UGB (Ministry of State Security). 6. In addition to preventing Western broadcasts from reaching Soviet and Satellite peoples, the Bloc ,s jamming effort has provided trainin3 in jamming techniques and system coordination. B. Effectiveness of Broadcast Jamming 7. According to an analysis of 2258 monitoring reports propaganda program transmissions directed to the European Satellites areas - -and-oan-be-heard-wit(good emisielbter reception on at least one channel for over half the program periods. Programs to the kar, East can be heard with good/oitedaVioqt reception on at least one high frequency channel for nearly all program periods, but medium frequency is received well only about half the time. Some of this difficulty may be due to interference other than deliberate jamming. On the other hand, these programs have only sporadic penetration within Western USSR, especially in the large urban areas. Technical expedients, such as greatly increasing the number of frequencies used simultanenusly to carry the same programs, have apparently not been very successful in the European USSR. 25X1C - 3.. Approved For Release 2002/08/110MWRDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 torne 'leaf SECRET 8, Reports from listeners within the Bloc are limited to non-technical information on effectiveness. Some reports from the Satellites provide technical information on transmitters which could be used for jamming, on development activities, andon tubes and transmitters; these reports phed some light on capabilities. Most of the technical details concerning the present jamming effort have been obtained from careful and repeated observations at receiving 7*-- stations in friendly territory.; Particular' excellent results have come from a restricted but continuous effort by experienced observere 0. Jamming of Signals Other Than Broadcast 9. In the past three years there have been more than 40 cases of interference with US communication circuits which might have been instances of Soviet jamming. A review of these cases indicates that it it exceedingly difficult to distinguish among: (a) unintentional interference, (b) radio jamming against VOA and BBC which spills over into U.S. communications circuits, and (c) deliberate radio jamming of communications circuits. Incidents of this last type have generally involved air-ground frequencies. ? 4 ? Approved For Release 2002/08/135,ECAIRDP79S01011A000900020011-7 25X1 C Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Sue SECRET 10. The various incidents reported thus far do not appear to Jsrs7'e indicate -eri...axerh.aWkieviet-pIan-lorj-nterference witI US communications circuits. All reported and investigated cases of interference with navigation aids seem to have been unintentional interference from transmitters operating on assigned frequencies. After due allowance for VOA radio jamming andltp unintentional interference, however, there still remain a few instances which cannot be readily explained except as deliberate jamming of communications circuits. For example, successful jamming of long range shore-to-ship communications by a jammer apparently located in the vicinity of Leipzig occurred during The shipborne receiver was within the effective range of the jammer, a condition which could exist a large portion of the time in the course of naval operations in general war with the Bloc. 11. The lack of conclusive evidence of intentional jamming of military circuits does not indicate a lack of capabilities.. The techniques used for broadcast jamming could be used against long range military circuits. It should be noted that for jamming purposes broadcasts to the Bloc offer one great advantage that commercial and military circuits often do not, namely, relatively fixed schedules and channels and proximity of the receiving end. Nevertheless, the Bloc is carAble of seriously disrupting long range trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific circuits. It is believed, however, - 5 - Approved For Release 2002/08/1gRalaRDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For Relea402002/08/13 : Chteela79S01011A000?140020011-7 that it is not likely to employ boordinated measures against military communications circuits unless a general mar occurs.* II. PRESENT BLOC CAPABILITIES FOR ELECTROMAGNETIC WARFARE A. A.22122921.11AE-1.11121E-22WEMEM. 12. Large scale jamming operations require: (a) transmitters and associated antennas, (b) monitor-control networks, and (c) com- petent personnel. The Bloc today possesses these necessary elements of a large-scale jamming system. 13. Transmitters and associated antennas, In order to evaluate properly the Bloc jamming transmitter capability, it must be recognized that ma/radio transmitter can be used to jam certain targets. However, transmitters to be utilized for jamming long range circuits must be capable of operating in the frequency range over , hich the jamming is to take place. They should be situated geographically to take advantage of varying radio propagation conditions, they should have a reasonably high power output, and they should be designed to make fairly rapid frequency changes. Large numbers of directional * The technical problem of jamming long range communications has been considered with respect to U. S. transoceanic circuits. It is considered that they are illustrative of the problem of long range communications of other western countries. Time has not permitted an investigation of the special technical problems of jamming of Arctic communications. Consideration has been given to the problems of jamming long range navigation systems used by other NATO countries as well as those used by the U.S. - 6 - Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CA379S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For ReleN'sd 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000600020011-7 SLUM antennas capable of beaming transmissions to the target areas, should be associated with the transmitting stations. 14. Since the Bloc has shown ability and willingness to divert transmitters from other services, the entire Bloc transmitter plant should be considered as a potential source of jamming equipment. It is estimated that there are at least 9600 significant radio transmitters in the Bloc. Available information on broadcast transmitters operating in the Bloc indicates a total of 421, ef which 167 are in the USSR. - In the Moscow area there are approximately 38 broadcast transmitters, 25 of which have been active internationally. Since the Bloc began intensive jamming operations, there has been an increasing number of jammers capable? of rapid frequency changes. Some jammers make changes of 10-15 kc. in as little as a few seconds, while others require up to a minute. kany radio tranamitters now in other services probably 44 could be diverted to a jamming operation with no effect on essential traffic handling capability; additional numbers Of transmitters could be diverted through some sacrifice of least essential services. 15. Interception of experimental Loran type signals operating on 150150 kc. shows Bloc has high powered transmitters on LF. Bloc transmissions have been observed on frequencies as low as 20.1 kc/s. International radio frequency registration shows 00E64 26 assignments below 60 kc/s. The indicated power is generally comparatively low, Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : dI1T-ITDP79S01011A000900020011-7 SECRP,T Approved For Re!Arra 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A00tap0020011-7 SECRET although there are two assignments of /20 kw. and one of 100 kw. It is apparent that the special techniques of LF and VLF are well known to the Bloc. 16. The Soviets have been active in the field of antenna design for many years. Observation of some of the main communication centers in the Bloc reveals vast antenna farms of directional antennas permitting efficient transmission in many directions. The Bloc probably has satisfactory antenna arrays associated with many of its transmitters enabling direction of jamming signals toward their target areas. 17.- Monitor and Control Networks. An effective monitor/control network must be an integrated part of the jamming system to achieve maximum efficiency in attacks and to nullify evasive action. This network searches out target transmissions, assigns missions to the jammers, and checks results. Study of jammer operations indicates existence of a highly efficient Bloc monitor control net which probably utilizes wire line communications. One centerof such control is believed to be located at Beelitz in East Germany. It is likely that the Bloc could increase these facilities as needed. 18. Competent Personnel. A cadre. of personnel skilled in electromagnetic mix-fare obviously has been developed since concerted jamming commenced in 1949. There have never been any indications ? 8 ? Approved For Release 2002/08/13L.CIARDP79S01011A000900020011-7 8.6ulta 25X1B Approved For Releast 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A004100020011-7 ,'3..EGRET of general shortages of qualified communications personnel in the USSR. The Soviets are sufficiently knowledgeable and skilled in the field of radio wave propagation to deal with the jamming problem They have had access to information on most of the work done in the field in the U.S. and elsewhere, and have conducted an extensive research program of their own. U. Ceyabilit for Dimption of lien rspge Telecommunieations Circui s an av obit on .1 s la. The attached map shows Boas, of our iv)ortant high frequency transoceanic circuits, and indicates how close the termini of many of them corm to Bloc territory. The signala of several circuits traverse soviet territory'in following a great-circle aath. 25X1B aonsideration was given to !ammer and winter conditions of propagnaieaa 4esults showed that conditions are favorable to jamming of all six ClICUiL3 during a.large portion of the time, 20. The receiver at the U.5 end of the circuit is particularly vulnerable because of the proximity of bloc territory to the transmitter at the far end, making wave propagation conditions very similar over the paths of desired signal and the jamming 9 Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For Re!Owe 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A00490020011-7 SECRET signal0 with jammers strategically located within Bloc territory, it is concluded that a jamming signal can be established at this end at almost any time. In most cases, the direction of arrival of the jamming signal and the desired signal would be so nearly the same that the use of directional receiving antennas would be little or no help in discriminating between them. 21. The receiver at the end of circuits nearest Bloc territory is in general about as vulnerable as the one at the U.t.J. end during the summer months. During the winter months freedom from jamming could exist for a period of about four hours or less 'by a careful selection of operating frequencies. In some cases, directional receiving antennas would be of considerable assistance, but not where the communications :ath traverses Bloc territory. 25X1 B 23. These considerations of jamming point-to-point communications can be applied, to mobile communications (shore-to-ship and ground-to-air), Approved For Release 2002/08/1-3 ?"BIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 SECRET Approved For Releae6 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000)0020011-7 SECRET - noting that vulnerability may be higher because the mobile station usually employs relatively low power and does not employ directional antennas. Moreover, there are generally no alternative means of communication for such purposes. 24. Communication with subterged submarines largely depends on very-low frequencies (VLF), chiefly because of their greater under- water penetration. Jamming of these very-low frequencies would seriously impair long-range communications with U.S. submarines. Coverage by existing VLF stations is not presently adequate for world-wide reception even on the surface and in the absence of jamming. As present day receiving antennas are little better than omnidirectional, these frequencies are very vulnerable to jamming; this situation probably will not be improved within the next two years. 25. Recent Soviet experiments on their LF Loran chain operating on 150 kc. showed substantial capability for jamming in the field of low frequency high power transmission. Practical experience gained by the Soviets in experimenting with their own long-range navigation aid system would be of value to them should they attempt to jam western systems of a similar nature. Propagation characteristics would grant our NA. Atlantic Loran chains a high degree of immunity during daylight hours, but no such immunity could be expected when - 11 - Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : GIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 SECRET Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 44,00, Neisof SECRET the path of the jamming transmission lies wholly or for the major part in darkness. However, alternate navigation aids operating in the frequency band under 30.0 mc. -- the Decca navigator, low/ medium frequency beacons, and uonsol -- are available in the European theater. 1111 three systems operate an low frequencies and use some form of continuous wave transmissions; they are vulnerable to "spoofing" and, to a lesser degree, to jamming. 26. The effectiveness of a jamming signal will vary according to the type of service against which it is operating. The over-all problem involves a complex combination of types of communications and jamming signals. Skillful employment of a diversity of communica- tions channels having differing vulnerabilities to each tyIe of jamming can increase the amount of penetration attained, but no conventional system is invulnerable. Nevertheless, there is one type of communica- tions of limited utility which is relatively difficult to jam; namely, the "Squirt" system whereby short messages are transmitted at very high speed on pre-arranged frequencies. The short time the signal is on the air makes it difficult to locate it and set the jammers. III. POTENTIAL kon IhatiEk61140 PRESENT CAPABILITIES A. Capability for Diversion 01.12illall..12T11.1.412! 27. The technical problem of diverting equipment and personnel ? 12_ ? Approved For Release 2002/08/1?EALArRDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For Relea*, 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000W020011-7 ? SECRET from other services to jamming, at least in the high frequency bands, is probably not difficult because (a) the basic techniques are well worked out in the existing system, and (b) there is no apparent lack of facilities available for diversion. Diversion of broadcast transmitters, regularly done during periods of maximum jamming effort, would imply that the control system presently used for jamming has connections already established not only with stations which are set up exclusively for jamming, but also with other radio communications centers. kany of the estimated 900 jammers now employed maybelocated at such communications centers -- there is definite evidence of this in several cases. 28. iversion of high powered VLF and IF equipment is not as easy as the diversion of HF equipment deoause of technical and operational problems such as greater difficulty in making frequency changes. This diversion nevertheless is within present Bloc capabilities. B. Potential for Increased Facilities 29. The scientific and developmental potential of the Bloc in electronics is large and could support greater jamming activity. There are indications of current laboratory developments in the jamming field. The Bloc has developed and constructed a substantial number of high-power transmitters, and has done considerable research Approved For Release 2002/08/13 7d1A-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 SECHIT Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Neo# SECRET in this field. High-powered (20 to OO kw) tie and HF transmitters have been developed in East Germany, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia for broadcast and other uses. The development of a number of high-power tubes by the USSR, Hungary and Germany will also contribute to the Soviet potential for the design of high power jamming transmitters. Little is knom about specific developments which would contribute to Bloc potential in VLF communications during the next two years. 30. Other factors which may indirectly contribute to Bloc jamming capacity are the normal expansion of wire line and multi- channel carrier telsphone facilities, as well as the expanding use of decimeter and microwave links to supplement these and existing point-to-point radio facilities. A considerable effort is being made to develop and produce large numbers of these items for civil and military use. This could release existing radio facilities for other purposes such as jamming of long range communication circuits. IV. BLOC VULNERABILITY TO AlliMING 31. Both microwave and wire communication facilities are practically immune to jamming. The Bloc has extensive wire line and probably some microwave facilities in the muropean area. In Asia, coverage by these alternate means is nearly non-existent. Expansion of alternate means probably will continue, further reducing the vulnerability of Bloc communications to radio jamming. - - Approved For Release 2002/08/13SY1MDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For Release 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Niue sow; SECRET 32. The Bloc can greatly mininise the effect of its jamming on its own communication circuits by judicious selection of transmitter locations, by use of suitable directional antennas, by use of alternate means of communication, and by advance planning. It is unlikely that interference could be avoided entirely, Due to the heavy use of the 3500-6000 kc. band by Bloc services (see attached chart), jamming in this frequency range would undoubtedly cause some trouble to their awn services. 33. The Bloc fosters, controls, and trains a large number of amateur radio operators* Many of them have developed a high degree of skill in the reception of voice and telegraphy due to the heavy interference which exists on the amateur bands, This amateur skill may contribute to Bloc capability to mitigate its own and western jamming of voice and radio telegraph.circuita. 34, The basic technical considerations in jamming Bloc communications area (a) propagation conditions, (b) performance characteristics of equipment, and (c) ability to operate jammers in strategic locations. In cases where jammers could be positioned near one end of a Bloc circuit on the great circle extension of the circuit, the receiver at the other end would be highly susceptible to jamming. Receiver antenna directivity would offer no protection in such cases because of the similar directions of desired and jamming signals. In other cases, the conditions for jamming would vary greatly With Approved For For Release 2002/08/1kahRDP79S01011A000900020011-7 Approved For Re!Ate 2002/08/13 SCIAIRDP79S01011A00400020011-7 each circuit considered and the times of operation. V. EFFECT OF GENERAL EAR ON THE FOREGOING CONSIDERATIONS 35. The technical capabilities existing during the cold war would obtain in general war conditions. It is believed that general mar would be launched with jamming of long range communications circuits as part of the initial surprises and that there would be little or no communications jamming in advance, This would include VLF communications to submarines. In addition, spoofing and jamming of navigation aids probably vould be common. 36. Although the Bloc might not find it necessary to do so, confiscation of some or all broadcast receivers would release the broadcast system for jamming military targets. In that event it wvald be necessary to place major reliance for mass communication's to the Bloc public upon the extensive wire diffusion network. Restrictions on Bloc no&-essential communications traffic vould release additional transmitters for jamming purposes. However, the probable change in the total volume of essential Bloc traffic under general war conditions cannot be estimated. 37* Depending on the cold war political and military situation, there may be a change in the availability to the West of sites at strategic locations for retaliatory jamming. In the event of general war, direct military action might destroy significant quantities of the jamming transmitters. Approved For Release 2002/08/13 :-C?k1:83P79S01011A000900020011-7 SECRET If * Approved For Rele)* 2002/08/13 : CIA-RDP79S01011A004490020011-7 SECRET :JD zve." INDICATIONS OF PRECLUSIVE USE 'POLICY 38. The Bloc has registered a large number of frequency assign- ments with the International TelecoLmunications Union. It has been generally held that the number exceeds its requirements. If so, it could be for the purpose of providing a stockpile ofAfrequencies either with or without a precise plan for arbitrarily controlling the spectrum to preclude use by other nations.. There is some 1 evidence that the Bloc has made moderate use of frequencies to i demonstrate those frequencies are required. However, this tactic ! has been employed by practically every nation and would appear , to have no unusual significance. \: SEE 8 APRIL DRAFT FOR FOLLOLING ATTACHNENTS: I -- Soviet and Satellite transmitting facilities. II -- Map showing US Government and commercial radio circuits, and usaa major radio communication centers. Approved For Release 2002/08/13_1_ Pc RDP79S01011A000900020011-7 .C;