CRITIQUE OF SPECIAL ESTIMATE 14

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79S01011A000800050019-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 17, 1999
• Sequence Number: 19
• Publication Date: January 12, 1953
• Content Type: MEMO

STANDARD FORM NO. J4
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? t '' D STATES GOVERNMENT
TO Chief Production Division/SI
ATTN : 25X1A9a
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ief s 'rV capons Division/SI
SUBJECT: Critique of Special Estimate 14
DATE: 12 February 1953
1. Per your verbal., request, this date, the accompanying
Weapons Division critiau4is forwarded.
2. Special attention is called to the last two paragraphs
of this critinue.
3. We are pleased to provide detailed critiques on all
estimates related to the .eapons field, but request that
additional time be allowed on estimates as important and
pertinent as this one.
25X1A9a
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12 February 1953
"If
II. DELIVI'Y OF MASS DESTRUCTION W A.PONS BY AIRCRAFT
8. Weapons Division is not prepared to comment on current order of battle
unless given sufficient time to coordinate with the US Services regarding the
latest information. (Weapons Division does not follow order of battle
intelligence inasmuch as this is not in their mission.)
9. The second sentence should be changed to read: "No prototype jet
medium bomber capable of attack on the Continental US from Soviet bases has yet
been observed." (Delete remainder of that sentence.) Line 5: Delete the
phrase "There are indications" and substitute the phrase "It is speculated".
Change the next sentence to read: "This type of aircraft is not known to be
in production." (Delete the remainder of the sentence.) Commentson the chart
in para. 9: Mid-1953 - medium bomber - jet, change the word "few" to "one".
"ad-1953 - heavy bomber - turboprop, change "25/50" to read "none". `'id-1954 -
change "150-300" to read "50-150". Mid-1955 - heavy bomber - turboprop, change
"100/250" to read "50/200".
10. Should be changed to read "The TU-4, under normal operating conditions,,
is estimated to have a combat radius of 1700 nautical miles, and a combat range
of 3100 nautical miles with a 10,000 lb. bomb load. Under cruise control
conditions necessary to reach distant target areas, its speed would be approxi-
mately 175 knots at an altitude of about 10,000 feet; however, it is capable for
a limited period of time of attai.nin; a maximum speed of 347 knots at about
32,500 feet altitude with a service ceiling of 39,500 feet. (Delete the entire
medium bomber - jet, change "50-150" to read "25-50". Mid-1954 - heavy bomber
turboprop, change "50/200" to read "25/50". Mid-1955 - medium bomber - jet,
last sentence.)(See NdIF
u*Jer p-L. Jtl,-ne3d ra'e)
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11. Change to read: "It is estimated that the prototype heavy bomber,
assuming it is equipped with a turboprop power plant, would by Mid-1955 have a
combat radius of 3420 nautical miles. Aerial refueling is not considered
feasible with this type in view of the limited numbers of similar aircraft
available for this purpose. The one-way combat range of this aircraft would
be about 6600 nautical miles carrying a 10,000 lb. bomb load. It would have
a maximum speed of approximately 360 knots at 30,000 feet. Obviously under
cruise control conditions necessary to accomplish long distance mission, the
flight speed would be somewhat lessened."
12. Line 6, change from Neould bomb only ..." to end of paragraph to read:
"cannot bomb even the northwest extremities of the US and return to base. Flying
a one-way mission from Chukotski such a plane could not reach New York or the
Great Lakes industrial region but could strike in the Los Angeles area. If the
Soviets are willing to accept the high attrition attendant with aerial refueling
over defended territory even with fully developed aerial refueling techniques,
on a one-way mission, it is possible to reach all critical target areas in the US."
NOTE: All foregoing changes in the characteristics and performance of the
current TU-4, as well as the deletion of "improvements" in future versions, are
based upon lack of indications in the pacer as to what specific improvements are
to be considered; Air Branch doesnot know of any specific manner in which
"technical modifications and improvements" can be made re the TU-4 which would
#ive it even an approximation of the potential characteristics which we have
deleted from paragraph 10.
14. Second sentence, change to read: "Nor could they, on one-way missions,
reach New York or the industrial area of New England and upper New York State."
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SEHEYSO
In place of the remainder of this naracrraph, insert the same statement regarding
aerial refueling as made in para. 12 with the exception that likewise unreachable
would be targets in the Pntire western, south-central to southwestern parts of
the US, as well as targets south .&n. westerly from Charleston.
15. In place of tie last sentence, insert: "However, these bases are even
more distant from key US target areas and only a very limited number of target
areas could be reached even with one--way missions using aerial refueling."
16. Last sentence, delete: "but there is no evidence of bomb exercises
by other than usual means, no evidence of practice in the use of bombing, and
navigational radar, and."
18. Line 7, change to read: The USSR has produced blind bombing and
navigating radars...."
19. After first sentence, insert: however, considerif.g the limitations
of base areas for use against the western hemisphere only a limited percentage
of these aircraft could be staged against targets in the US." Delete the second
sentence and insert in its place: "In view of the fact that western hemisphere
industrial targets could be reached only by one-way air refueling missiorw, the
attrition rate would be 100% per mission; the abort rate of aircraft which
would not reach the target areas is e t rated at 20-25% of those staged without
consideration for interception and poor navigation, with varying increases
according to season, weather, extent of preparation, and other factors." Add
to the end of para. 19: "However, in view of the limited number of bases
available, the high attrition which would. be caused by air refueling over defended
territory, normal abortion die to ens=ine failure and navigation errors, combat
attrition, weather, and other factors, only a moderate percentage of aircraft
launched at these target areas could conceivably place bombs on targets; in
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addition the limiting factor of utilizing the same aircraft as refueling tankers
plus utilization of the same limited base facilities for launching such tankers,
plus tanker attrition which would invariably mean the attrition of the aircraft
planned to be refueled, plus necessary utilization of similar type aircraft and
the bame base facilities for radar countermeasures afrcraft and aircraft
accompanying to provide firerower for defense against fighter attack, would
all severely limit the capabilities to successfully stage mass attacks against
these distant targets."
21. Top of page 12, line 3: Change to read: "and although it had
previously appeared that the Soviets would. Produce operational missiles at the
earliest possible time, such has not appeared to-be confirmed." After the
last sentence of this paragraph, add: "It is not known that the Soviets have
carried even these types to series t:roduction; although undoubtedly these types
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22. This entire paragraph should be changed to read:
i I
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It is strongly recommended that paragraph V. be deleted on the basis that
it is beyond the stated scope of this paper. Similarly paragraph VI. Is beyond
the scope of this paper and we recommend that it be deleted. If these "war
gaming" paragraphs are not deleted, Weapons Division insists that it will not
feel obligated to support any of the Foregoing which might be utilized out of
context. We do not believe that a simple "re-write" job would suffice; to"correct
the statements made in these paragraphs, the basic fundamentals (which are
strongly questioned) must be reviewed. Not having the leeway to engage in "war
gaming", Weapons Division. is precluded from detailed attack on the problem.
It is urged that in the Naval portion of this paper, there be included a
statement on the submarine order of battle in a manner similar to the order of
battle of bomber aircraft, as well as characteristics and performance of such
submarines. In addition, data should be included regarding the number of
submarines available for use as missile launching platforms and the number of
missiles which could be utilized from each submarine per missile. Given
sufficient time, Weapons Division could supply such figures.
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