SOVIET POLICY TOWARD THE UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES

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CIA-RDP79S00427A000600010001-2
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April 28, 1961
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CIA IP TF, ;:s ! l,~~. Sanitized - Approv&VFor Relea@,PP79S00A000600010001-2 28 April 1961 OCI.No. 1803/61 Copy'No. r111T&LVj. no Flat D~Osyay CURRENT INTELLIGENCE STAFF STUDY SOVIET POLICY TOWARD THE UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES 25X1A (Reference Title: .THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECT- ING THE NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE. ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, USC, SECTIONS 793 AND 794, THE TRANSMIS- SION OR REVELATION OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW. CAA zNTE ". Sanitized - Approved For Releggbc RDP79S00427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Approve'*LFor Release'` I -RII79SO042 A000600010001-2 25X1A This is a working paper. It traces chronologically the development of aspects of Soviet policy toward colonial areas and the countries regarded by Moscow as having achieved vari- ous degrees of independence from "imperialism." The Sino- Soviet Studies Grou would welcome comment on this paper, addressed to who wrote the paper, or to the acting coordinator o e group, in Room 2549 "1" Building or at Ext. 8009. Sanitized - Approved For Release . fR 9SO0427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Approved-For Release '5A79500.42000600010001-2 SUMMARY Moscow's preoccupation in the period 1945-55 with the task of reconstructing the Soviet homeland, with the incor- poration of Eastern Europe into the bloc, and with develop- ments in Western Europe--the main focus of East-West fric- tion--for a decade precluded a dynamic policy in peripheral ? areas: non-Communist Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Al- though on numerous public occasions Lenin and Stalin had ex- pressed great optimism over trends in colonial areas, Com- munist agitation and Soviet action in these areas--until World War II shattered the existing social structure in large sections of Asia and speeded up the tempo of politi- cal, economic, and social change on a world-wide scale-- had been singularly unsuccessful. The USSR's failure in late 1945 to adopt a bold program to capture or guide the anticolonialist movements which had matured during the war reflected not only the Soviet Union's desire not to embitter relations with the West on secondary matters, but also uncertainty as to the reliability of non- Communist leaders and movements and the general lack of a Soviet "Presence." Stalin apparently evaluated the new gov- ernments as transitory, soon to give way before popular pres- sures in an inevitable evolution of political power to the left. The worsening of Soviet relations with the West was accompanied by a stiffening of Moscow's line in Asia. With the founding of the Cominform in September 1947, moderation toward non-Communists was repudiated conclusively--a deci- sion which was reflected in 1948 in the widespread outbreak of Communist-led strike violence, terrorism, and armed rebel- lions not only in remaining colonial areas but also in the newly independent states of Asia. The Kremlin apparently believed that nothing further could be gained by Communist restraint or conciliation, and this view was abetted by Com- munist successes in China and by a consistent overevaluation of Communist party prospects elsewhere in Asia. Asian Com- munist parties, following Moscow's lead, began freely to pre- scribe a "Chinese way" for the anticolonialist movement; in essence this. meant the encouragement of peasant and workers' armed revolts ~ as well as intensified political struggle. The subsequent suppression of Communist-inspired revolts-- with the notable exception of Indo-China--with heavy losses to Communist assets was a serious setback to Moscow's general line that the time was ripe for revolutionary upheavals in Asia. Sanitized - Approved For ReleasF79S00427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Approve` or Release'` 0ft& 9SO042ZA000600010001-2 The world-wide crisis touched off in June 1950 by the Soviet-sponsored invasion of South Korea prompted the USSR to mobilize world Communist and non-Communist "peace" forces in support of its Korean policy, Moscow, however, was slow in recognizing the extent to which antiwar sentiment and "neutralism" could be turned against the West; even after the war turned into a military and political stalemate and the Soviet Union's general attitude toward Asian non-Com- munist governments moderated, Stalin continued to rebuff neutralist efforts to bring about a compromise. At a September 1951 ECAFE meeting in Singapore, Soviet delegates, in an abrupt reversal of their previous tactics, offered to help promote the economic development of Asian countries by exchanging Soviet machinery for local raw ma- terials. At the UN, the Soviet Union-':s consistent anti- Westernism now was combined with limited overtures to non- Western delegations, a change reflected also in Soviet world-wide diplomatic activity--suggesting that Moscow had upgraded the possibilities for expanding its influence through traditional government-to-government channels. The extensive buildup given the Moscow Economic Conference (sponsored by the World Peace Council) in April 1952 sug- gested that Stalin also looked to increased economic con- tacts as a promising avenue for breaking out of the USSR's semi-isolation. The year 1952 also featured a shift toward greater Soviet diplomatic and propaganda support for the Arabs against Israel, to the encouragement of Arab extremists. Sta- lin's last major theoretical pronouncements pointed toward a greater emphasis on exploiting divergencies of interest be- tween the industrially developed Western powers and the weak- ly developed or undeveloped "capitalist dependencies," but his continued rejection of a settlement on Korea acted as a powerful brake on Soviet efforts to get a friendship campaign rolling. Stalin's successors reaffirmed his goals but discarded his methods and attempted to bring about a limited improve- ment in relations with the non-Communist world. The cumula- tive effect of minor steps undertaken by Soviet leaders in the six months following Stalin's death made it apparent that a fundamental reorientation of Soviet tactics toward under- developed countries was in progress. For the first time the Soviet Union announced its willingness--although qualified-- to contribute to the UN's technical assistance program, and Sanitized - Approved For Release14~*ff 79SO0427A000600010001-2 $1 T~ Sanitized - Approved) or Release"CFaP79S004000600010001-2 Soviet Premier Malenkov declared a "good neighbor" policy and "a new approach" on economic aid to Asian countries. The USSR's subsequent economic overtures attempted to play on local popular and governmental concern over export markets and desires for rapid economic development. Mos- cow's main attention in late 1953 and 1954 was to Asia, al- though interest in the Arab world increased with the new tempo of political, economic, and social change in the area. The Soviet Union paid little heed to non-Arab Africa or to Latin America--a tacit admission that they were more or less ef- fectively sealed off from its influence. A Moscow-directed world "peace" campaign, under way since 1950 in an attempt to exploit the universal fear of atomic warfare and generate pressures against military or political cooperation with the West, was intensified in 1954. The USSR extended diplomatic and propaganda support to coun- tries involved in disputes with the West on territorial is- sues and other matters and stepped up its efforts to introduce detachments of Soviet specialists and technicians into Asian and Arab countries, The Soviet Union's tactical support for nationalist regimes such as those of Nehru, Sukarno, and Nasir was based on the expectation that their greater self- assurance and self-expression would have the net effect of reducing Western influence and, to a degree, discrediting Western leadership. The USSR's intention to seek a closer working agreement with Asian and Arab nationalist regimes was made clear by its February 1955 agreement to help finance and construct a ma- jor steel plant at Bhilai, India, and by the fervor of its efforts to identify itself with the views and objectives of the neutralist-convened conference of Asian and African gov- ernments at Bandung in April 1955. Moscow's attempts to ac- commodate its public posture to neutralist-nationalist senti- ment was underlined dramatically in connection with the June visit to the USSR of Indian Prime Minister Nehru; having form- erly attacked him for his anti-Communist and "pro-imperialist" policies, Moscow now praised him for his "spiritual" and po- litical leadership of Asia. On the eve of the 1955 Geneva summit conference, the USSR's "posture of peace" appeared to hold out the promise of an improvement in East-West relations and a general Sanitized - Approved For Releas Efr I 79S00427A000600010001-2 k Sanitized - Approve or Release' fA P79S00429A000600010001-2 reduction of international tension, not just in Europe but throughout the world. Concurrent with conciliatory moves, however, the Soviet Union set in motion a chain of secret arms negotiations with a group of Asian and Arab states de- signed to offset pro-Western alliances in the area, a tactic surfaced with the announcement that September of Cairo's arms deal with the bloc. The Bulganian-Khrushchev visit to Asia in November and December 1955 was Moscow's first big chance to bid for sup- port among Asian peoples. The two leaders dropped their Geneva smiles and attempted to give Asian neutralism a more anti-Western slant by identifying the USSR with Asian neutral- ist aims and "peace" and the West with "colonialism" and in- tervention. Agreements on increased trade, technical and cultural exchanges, and credits reached during the tour laid the groundwork for a considerable subsequent expansion of Soviet influence in the area. The Khrushchev-dominated 20th party congress in February 1956 sought to create the impression that a new era was open- ing, bright with prospects of Communist victories. The new formulations of the congress were intended to add credibility to the Soviet Union's general line of "peaceful coexistence" and to facilitate long-term cooperation between the USSR and non-Communist countries. Khrushchev confirmed that aid to Asian, African, and Latin American countries for their eco- nomic, political, and cultural development was an important plank in Soviet foreign policy, designed to provide "a ma- jor stumbling block" to imperialism. In the series of crises touched off by the collapse in July 1956 of Cairo's negotiations for Western economic as- sistance to build an Aswan high dam and Nasir's swift na- tionalization of the Suez Canal Company, Moscow encouraged Cairo to resist Western demands. The Soviet Union's diplo- matic and propaganda footwork following the attack on Egypt was intended to halt the fighting and embarrass the attack- ing countries without committing the USSR to all-out support of Nasir. After the cease-fire, Communist propagandists feasted on this "evidence" of imperialist intervention and magnified the Soviet role as protector of Arab interests. Moscow's efforts in early 1957 to distract world at- tention from bloc internal troubles centered on a campaign to counter President Eisenhower's "Middle East Proposals"-- i.e., to frustrate the extension of pro-Western defense Sanitized - Approved For Release JILA t P, 9S00427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - ApproveWor Release;9S00427.~(000600010001-2 arrangements and to protect the newly won Soviet influence in some of the Arab countries. The Soviet Union's own grow- ing foreign economic program could point to increased diplo- matic and economic contacts both in Asia and in the Arab states, to dozens of new trade agreements with non-Communist countries, and to a generally enhanced impression that the USSR was a serious economic as well as political competitor with the West. Only a handful of countries, however, had agreed to extensive programs of Soviet economic and military aid or of economic aid alone. Following the frustration in June 1957 of efforts by the "anti-party" group to break his control of the Soviet government and party, Khrushchev led the USSR into bolder foreign moves. Behind a facade of Soviet security interest in Syrian developments and in the context of intense polit- ical-psychological pressures following Soviet tests of an intercontinental ballistic missile and claims of a new world balance of power, Moscow set out to test Western reactions and Western resolution. After two months of efforts to in- tensify and prolong world fears over Syria, the USSR's abrupt reversal reflected apparent disappointment that it was the Arab states--rather than the West--which buckled under East- West pressures. The USSR's 40th anniversary celebrations and subsequent meetings of world Communist parties in November 1957 re- flected an effort to make direct political and propaganda capital out of changes wrought domestically and internation- ally in the years of Soviet rule. The essence of the new formal policy pronouncements was a call for an intensified struggle by all anti-imperialist elements against Western influence, with top priority to peace forces for a drive against the manufacture, test, or use of nuclear weapons. The practical effect of the party discussions on Soviet pol- icy was slight, with the USSR continuing to profess willing- ness to enter into reasonable agreements with the West and to assist politically and economically in the development of countries seeking to break away from dependence on the West. Moscow began 1958 riding the wave of optimism engendered by World-wide reaction to its military and space achievements, and it appeared to count on the cumulative effect over a pe- riod of years of the bloc's political, economic, and military aid program--combined with people-to-people contacts, intensive Sanitized - Approved For Releass f f P79SO0427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Approve .For ReIease ? A 1179SO042ZA000600010001-2 propaganda, and growing local Communist agitation--to make a growing number of the underdeveloped countries materially dependent on the bloc and politically tractable. However, Nasir's precipitous move toward a merger of Egypt and Syria pointed up the Soviet problem of maintaining good state rela- tions with nationalist governments while supporting the spread of Communist agitation and organization. The Soviet Union ended by grudgingly accepting the formation of the UAR--with its disastrous effects on the Syrian Communist party--and turned its attention to heading off any rapprochement between Nasir and the West, on the one hand by increasing its eco- nomic and military support to Cairo and on the other by con- tinuing to fan anti-Western sentiment among the Arab populace. The USSR's vigorous reaction to the Iraqi revolt on 14 July 1958 and the subsequent American and British landings in Lebanon and Jordan reflected Soviet concern that these moves were a prelude to a general Western counteroffensive against Soviet and UAR interests in the Middle East. As in the earlier Syrian cr.isJs, Moscow attempted to intensify the air of crisis, to discredit Western moves, and to force an immediate big-power conference to bring about a detente. The Soviet Union moved rapidly to develop close relations with the new Iraqi regime, evidently viewing it as an effective instrument for promoting anti-Western sentiment among Arabs. Anti-leftist coups in the fall of 1958 in Pakistan, Burma, and Thailand prompted Moscow to urge on the peoples and gov- ernments of the underdeveloped countries a more resolute stand against reactionary influences, both domestic and internation- al. At the 21st party congress in early 1959 Khrushchev per- sonally spotlighted ideological and political differences which had arisen in Moscow's political, economic, and mili- tary support of selected non-Communist countries--support' based principally on parallel anti-Western interests rather than on compatible ideologies or common.long-term goals. Khrushchev implied Soviet demands in the future for more con- sistent support of Soviet foreign policy in exchange for So- viet favors. The congress' endorsement of a more active line in underdeveloped countries was reflected in signs of a broad- ening and deepening of Soviet attention to African affairs and of attempts to step up economic, diplomatic, and cultural contacts with Latin American countries. The general strategy outlined at the congress reflected the USSR's apparent belief Sanitized - Approved For Releaseg fiefff 9SO0427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Approved For ReI ~AIRDP79SO0427A000600010001-2 NVol that the stalemate in East-West relations facilitated rather than hampered its policy of driving a wedge between the West- ern and neutralist camps; support for the latter was justi- fied on the basis that the conduct of the neutralists showed them to be supporters of peace and "well-disposed" toward the bloc. In mid-1959, under the exigencies of its drive for detente with the West and in reaction to unfavorable developments with- in key underdeveloped countries, the Soviet Union temporarily set aside its activist line in favor of overtures for strength- ening friendly government-to-government relations. Moscow ap- parently hoped that Khrushchev's trip to the United States would help build irresistible popular pressure for an early summit meeting and pave the way for Western concessions. Khru- shchev's disarmament initiative at the General Assembly ses- sion in New York, which included the promise of vastly great- er economic assistance to Asia, Africa, and Latin America from both the bloc and the West once the arms race was over, was a transparent bid for support for immediate talks on disarma- ment. In a different vein, Mikoyan's November 1959 visit to Mexico pointed up the new stage in Soviet efforts to exploit the economic difficulties of Latin American countries in the direction of expanded trade and other ties with the bloc; Mikoyan's visit to Cuba in February 1960 reinforced this tactic; at the same time it called attention to Moscow's ap- praisal that Castro's anti-Americanism opened an unprecedented opportunity for expanding Soviet influence throughout Latin America, Khrushchev's own highly publicized Asian trip in February and March 1960 probably was intended to halt the erosion of Soviet influence and popularity, which had suffered particularly as a result of friction between Peiping and oth- er Far Eastern capitals, and generally to shore up Soviet po- sitions and prestige. Khrushchev's disruption of the Paris talks in May 1960 apparently in reaction to the U-2 incident and the dimming of prospects for Western concessions on any of the major out- standing international issues, prompted a major effort by Soviet spokesmen to absolve the USSR of any blame and to con- vince the world public that the United States alone was re- sponsible. The U-2 incident was used as a pretext for a cam- paign to frighten America's allies into restricting the use, Sanitized - Approved For ReI C RDP79S00427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Appr&ved For Relelse'~ TRDP79SW27A000600010001-2 and pressing for the evacuation, of American bases from their territory under the threat of a Soviet strike in the event of their use by any future invader of Soviet air space. Released at least temporarily from inhibitions deriving from the de- sire for negotiations with the US, the Soviet Government adopted a bold line on Cuba which went well beyond any pre.vi.ous Soviet move in Latin America, although Khrushchev's 9 July threat to use rockets against the US in the event of "Pentagon" inter'ention in Cuba was patently a bluff to impress non-Com- munist Latin America with the might and daring of the Soviet Union. The stronger line was also evident;. in Moscow's treat- ment of the RB-47 incident and its breaking off disarmament talks. Moscow seized on the crisis in the Congo following its achievement of independence on 30 June as a windfall to dis- credit the West not only in the Congo but throughout Africa and to establish a Soviet presence through heavy support to Lumumba-controlled elements in the Leopoldville government. Khrushchev's pledge of unilateral aid was implemented dramat- ically in a fashion to undermine the UN program, which came under heavy Soviet attack for "improperly" supporting colonial- ist interests. Mobutu's 15 September order expelling all bloc diplomats and technicians brought the USSR's Congo ex- periment to an abrupt halt and forced the Soviet Union to fall back on diplomatic and propaganda exploitation of the continuing political, economic, and military chaos. Khrushchev's performance at the 15th General Assembly session in New York in September and October 1960, which man- aged to keep the idea of a summit meeting at the forefront of world public opinican at the same time that Moscow continued to play up situations making an early meeting of Soviet and American leaders seem imperative, was an effort to influence the countries of non-bloc Asia, Africa, and Latin America-- singly and in concert--to a heightened assault on colonialism. Khrushchev's official and unofficial conduct, and Soviet maneuvers generally, added up to a major effort to impress on the leaders of these countries that in the 15 years since World War II there had been a fundamental change in the world balance of power--a fact which had not yet been reflected proportionately either in the policies of their individual governments or in the structure and operations of the UN. Sanitized - Approved For Re,RDP79S00427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Ap`p;oved For RA&'EIl RDP70427A000600010001-2 In sum, the assumption underlying Moscow's policy toward the underdeveloped countries--to which it has clung despite heavy pressures from both inside and outside the bloc--is that the world is passing through an interim period of un- certain but fairly short duration, perhaps a decade, during which political, economic, and ideological forces now in motion will bring about a basically new world situation: the predominance of "socialism." Changes within Asian, Af- rican, and Latin American countries will reflect the corre- lation of world forces, resulting in a gradual elimination of political, economic, and ideological ties with the West. In this period, growing bloc economic and political support to underdeveloped countries will help their governments main- tain a neutrality increasingly friendly to the bloc and in- creasingly opposed to Western policies and interests. Sanitized - Approved For Rele eRAgDP79SO0427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - AppmWed For ReIe4'~ -DP79S000427AO00600010001-2 I> THE STALINIST LEGACY: August 1945 - February 1953 Moscow's preoccupation in the immediate postwar years with the massive task of reconstructing the Soviet homeland, with the incorporation of Eastern Europe into the bloc, and with crucial developments in Western Europe--the principal focus of East-West differences--precluded a dynamic policy in peripheral areas: non-Communist Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Nevertheless, the extreme fluidity of the Asian political scene aroused Moscow's revolutionary optimism and called for an updating and clarification of its views on Com- munist world prospects. Although Stalin at every party con- gress since the early 1920s--as Lenin had before him--express- ed official optimism over developments in "the colonial areas," Communist agitation and Soviet meddling in the affairs of non- Communist Asia, Africa, and Latin America had in fact been singularly unsuccessful. World War II, by shattering the existing social structure in large areas of Asia and speeding up the tempo of political, economic, and social change through- out most of the world, opened new vistas for the expansion of Soviet influence. Moscow's failure at the end of the war to step out imme- diately with a clear-cut strategy to guide or capture anti- colonial, anti-Western movements, reflected the USSR's desire not to embitter relations with the West on matters which it considered secondary to the overriding necessity of arranging a suitable settlement in Europe. It turned also on uncer- tainty in top Soviet circles whether to cooperate with non- Communist leaders and movements--and on what terms--or to en- courage local Communists to attempt to seize power. The scar- city of solid information, the lack of a Soviet "presence," and a record studded with overenthusiastic appraisals of anti- colonial developments all counseled caution. Although Lenin's vaunted thesis that the capitalist chain could be broken at its weakest line--the areas under "imperialist oppression"-- and Stalin's formula for overcoming imperialism by revolution- izing its colonial "rear" were considered still valid, neither served as a practical guide for Soviet policy in this period of widespread revolutionary change. Whatever Soviet intentions concerning exploitation of the chaotic and near-chaotic conditions in South and Southeast Asia, Moscow was stymied by the fact that relations between local Sanitized - Approved For Rele ,f fi tDP79SO0427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - App pved For Re 6-RDP79SQ0427A000600010001-2 Communist and non-Communist independence movements--seldom, if ever, good--had been embittered in most areas over the issue of wartime support for the Allies. Moscow's 1935 adop- tion and subsequent concentration on Popular Front tactics in Europe--which viewed fascism as a more pressing danger than colonialism--had contributed to the estrangement of Com- munists from incipient nationalist movements by committing Moscow to collaboration with the Western colonial powers. Stalin's pact with Hitler removed these inhibitions, but fol- lowing Germany's attack on the Soviet Union in June 1941, the virulent anticolonial campaign was suddenly moderated by the requirements of the wartime alliance. With the Japanese de- feat, the two-front struggle of Communists and nationalists against the colonial powers--and each other--reached a new peak of intensity. Moscow, in no position to influence local developments by effective material or political aid, directed a steady stream of charges against British, French, and Dutch military actions undertaken in an effort to maintain their colonial positions, but its attitude toward non-Communist movements coming to power in the new Asian states vacillated. Moscow was publicly cool toward their leaders, and Soviet spokesmen questioned the "genuineness" of their anticolonialism, in light of the compromises which had made early independence pos- sible. Well into the postwar period, Moscow continued to dis- cuss Asian developments in terms of ever-deteriorating politi- cal and economic conditions and openly predicted that exist- ing governments and their programs would soon give way before the inevitable evolution of political power to the left. Stalin not only minimized the immediate prospects of Asian nationalist movements, but he apparently also entertained hopes that different views on colonialism, combined with anta- gonistic economic self-interests, would lead to a serious rift between the United States and its Western colleagues. As a consequence of these views, Soviet propaganda downplayed the American role in attempting to stabilize areas recently freed from Japanese occupation, concentrating its attacks on other Western powers active in Asia. Moscow's unsure diplomatic hand was reflected in disagree- ment in top Soviet academic circles as to the meaning of the changes brought about in the colonial world by war. Unanimous only in their appraisals that "tremendous" and "revolutionary" developments had taken and were taking place, Soviet scholars Sanitized - Approved For Rele sE * DP79SO0427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Appr wed For Rele?s6q"CrA RDP79SOG+ 27A000600010001-2 and publicists, in the absence of firm guidance from the top, arrived at no consensus which would fit the needs of Soviet policy. Their considerable differences were underlined by the controversy which sprang up over the September 1946 publica- tion of Changes in the Economy of Capitalism Resulting From the Second or ar by Moscow's leading politico-economic theoretician, Academician Eugene S. Varga. Varga's monumental survey of the war's effects on world capitalism, including an attempt to assess the "far-reaching changes in the relation- ships between the colonies and the mother countries," concluded that on the basis of industrial development and lessened fi- nancial dependence, the war years irrevocably had reduced the economic dependence of the majority of the colonies on their metropolises. Varga, in company with other Soviet analysts, cited the growth of an industrial proletariat in a whole series of colonies and the supply of arms to colonial peoples during the war--a part of which they were able to retain and use for the creation of revolutionary armies--as factors facilitating the development of Communist influence. Although Varga's views found considerable support, the implications of his favorable appraisal of economic develop- ments in the capitalist world were increasingly unacceptable as cold war tensions mounted. Public rebuttal of Varga's views was considered necessary. Published discussions at a joint conference of Economics Institute and Moscow University theoreticians in May 1947 reflected Soviet hostility toward both the Western powers and the Asian nationalist movements. Varga's findings on the degree of economic independence at- tained by certain colonies and "semi-colonies" (imperialist "dependencies" such as the Latin American countries) were challenged, and it was denied that a basis had been laid in some colonies for independent economic development. Although the regime-sponsored counterattack on Varga served notice that the area for individual interpretation of world events had narrowed considerably, both Varga supporters and Varga de- tractors displayed uncertainty toward developments in Asia, finding as much to condemn as to praise in the current scene. The founding of the Cominform in September 1947 marked the conclusive repudiation of moderation as a line to be fol- lowed toward non-Communists. Zhdanov's keynote speech empha- sized the extent to which Moscow was to commit itself to the Sanitized - Approved For Rele . f f DP79S00427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Approved For ReIe c' to DP79SOQA27A000600010001-2 doctrine of two antagonistic world systems, completely exclud- ing the possibility of a third, or neutralist, position. Zhdanov's speech and the early Cominform propaganda had little to say about Asia and served to underline the fact that Moscow's primary concern remained with securing a favorable settlement of European issues. Asian Communist parties within a short time began to reflect this harsher line and to adopt a more vigorous assault on remaining Western colonial interests and on non-Communist Asian nationalist parties. The year 1948 was marked by a widespread outbreak of Communist-led strike violence, terrorism, and armed rebellions not only in the re- maining colonies, but also in the newly independent states. Moscow's encouragement of such tactics apparently stemmed from the belief that nothing further could be gained by Communist restraint toward the West nor from additional attempts to con- ciliate non-Communist Asian governments, a view abetted by Communist successes in China and by consistent overevaluation of Communist party prospects elsewhere in Asia. An obvious effort was made to exploit Chinese prestige which ballooned in Asia on the heels of the 1948 military vic- tories. Asian Communist parties, following Moscow's lead, be- gan freely to prescribe a "Chinese way" as proper anticoloni- alist strategy for Asia. The content of this "Chinese way" was not spelled out, but in essence it meant the encouragement of armed revolts by peasants and workers, as well as intensi- fied political struggle to draw additional elements of the national bourgeoisie into the "anti-imperialist" struggle. The foundering of this policy--as evidenced by the general sup- pression of the Communist-inspired revolts with heavy and in some places catastrophic losses to local Communist assets, with the notable exception of Indochina--was a serious setback to Moscow's general line that the'-time was ripe for revolution- ary upheavals in Asia. Post mortems on failures of the resort to open force--i.e., the editorial- in the April 1949 issue of Problems of His- tory--attacked the degree of cooperation "expose-' etween area governments and the "colonialists" and freely predicted a general deterioration of the Asian political situation which would give Communist parties another chance under more favor- able circumstances. Soviet scholars were charged with con- centrating their efforts on the support of Soviet and Commu- nist goals in Asia by greater attention to present-day devel- opments and to combatting the false theses of non-Communists. Sanitized - Approved For Re MAR RDP79S00427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - App ved For Re*&Ofl -RDP79 427A000600010001-2 In April 1949 a three-day meeting of Pacific and Oriental In- stitute specialists was held in Moscow to improve the content of Soviet propaganda on Asian developments and in June there was a joint conference of the Pacific and Economics Institutes. The principal report at both meetings was delivered by the director of the Pacific :Institute, Academician Eugene M. Zhukov, since 1943 a top spokesman on Soviet Asian policy. The proceedings of the two conferences point up the con- siderable doctrinal backing and filling which was going on in the Communist movement at this time. Having just suffered de- feats at the hands of the bourgeoisie in many of the new Asian states, Moscow was in no mood to examine dispassionately cur- rent opportunities for playing up existing differences between the new states and the West, and instead increased its isola- tion from Asian nationalist movements by heaping abuse on their leaders and ideologies. Zhukov, however, made it clear that Moscow even then was less concerned with the social role of various capitalist elements in the new Asian states than with the "main question": the progressiveness of one social movement or another, the revolutionary nature or reactionary nature of one party or another, is...determined by their relations with the Soviet Union, with the camp of democracy and socialism. The conferees' exposition of an Asian strategy welding anti-imperialist intellectuals, petit-bourgeois, and middle- bourgeois elements with a militant.proletariat arid`peasantry largely ignored recent defeats of Communist-led insurrections and, because of "fundamental changes" caused by the war and the "new alignment of political forces" in Asia resulting from the Communist sweep of the Chinese mainland, considered Com- munist chances in Asia bright enough for the continued advocacy of violence. The general line continued that authoritatively set by Zhdanov at the founding of the Cominform in September 1947--aggressive Communist leadership of anti-imperialist coalitions and across-the-board attack on all evidence of West- ern influence. Area Communist parties were slow in coming around to the Moscow-charted course; less caught up in inter- national issues, they preferred to attack local class enemies. The Communist party of India, the most important in non-Com- munist Asia following the suicidal uprising of the Indonesian party in 1948, was split into factions over the question whether Sanitized - Approved For ReleC IDP79S00427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Appr4yved For Re eiA-RDP79S427A000600010001-2 to continue peasant guerrilla warfare, which had failed in Telengana, or to retreat to more peaceful forms of politi- cal agitation in an attempt to win over dissatisfied elements in the Congress party. Cominform efforts to bring Asian Communist parties into line were pointed up by an editorial in its January 1950 journal attacking those Indian Commu- nist party leaders who continued to question the direct ap- plicability of the "Chinese experience" to their own strug- gle for power, and the Japanese Communist party for advocat- ing "peaceful revolution" for Asia. On the occasion of Stalin's 70th birthday, Professor I. I. Potekhin, long a principal spokesman on African affairs, summarized the Stalinist position on "Colonial Revolution and the National-Liberation Movement:" Comrade Stalin warned, and the last quarter of a century fully confirmed, that the complete and final victory of the colonial revolution is pos- sible only under the leadership of the proletariat. Petit-bourgeois nationalist organizations and parties have already proven their incapacity to accomplish national liberation. They limit them- selves to constitutional reforms and the achieve- ment of formal, bourgeois democracy which do not and cannot ensure a complete break from the system of imperialism. In Stalin's name, Potekhin went on to record "bourgeois be- trayals" of the independence movement not only by the Chinese bourgeoisie, but also by the big bourgeoisie of India, Indo- nesia, the Philippines, and Egypt. The Moscow-created crisis touched off by the invasion of South Korea in June 1950, which quickly became a political confrontation of the major powers, provided a new focus for Soviet Asian policy and pre-empted attention from the other areas. Stalin's Korean gambit showed him at least temporarily willing to use Communist armed forces, at the very consider- able risk of a general war, to achieve his political objec- tives. The move obviously stemmed from a monumental miscal- culation of the Western mood. The war made academic further discussions within the Com- munist world over hard or soft tactics to be followed in the anticolonial struggle. What counted now was the success of Sanitized - Approved For Rele14tDP79S00427A000600010001-2 f t Sanitized - Appr ed For Refs&19' &A RDP79S"9Q-427A000600010001-2 local supporters in mobilizing Communist and non-Communist "peace" forces in support of official positions. The war also marked the final step in the evolution of Communist propaganda toward singling out the United States as the principal "im- perialist" enemy, not only of Communist interests but alleg- edly of those of the independence movements as well. Presum- ably the attack on South Korea was initiated as a result of Moscow's estimate that a military shock bringing down one of the weak Western-oriented states in Asia would trigger a chain reaction of revolts elsewhere. By'the summer of 1951 it had become obvious that the fighting would continue deadlocked un- less one side or the other was willing to take much greater risks. With the drawing to a close of the military phase of the war, Moscow began to back away from its previous line. The clash of Korean policies had exposed considerable Asian es- trangement from the West. Statements by Indian and Arab lead- ers in particular, and voting records in the United Nations not hostile to bloc positions, pointed up the considerable es- trangement which had developed between the "peace" policies of a number of Asian governments and'those of the principal Western powers. In retrospect, Moscow, which had acted prompt- ly to organize world-wide condemnation of the UN effort in Korea, was slow in recognizing the extent to which antiwar sentiment and "neutralist" foreign policies of Asian non-Com- munist governments could be turned against the West. To the end, Stalin rebuffed neutralist efforts to bring about a com- promise on Korea, a problem in which he was too personally and emotionally involved to permit even the tacit admission of error. The transition to a more peaceful stage in Communist and Soviet relations with the former colonies of Asia was gradual and uneven. The year 1951 was marked by a considerable tail- ing off of Communist-led guerrilla wars in Asia--except for Indochina--and renewed emphasis on political agitation by the local parties, but the changeover in tactics was not accom=panied by unmistakable public signs such as those oi`i their adoption in mid-1947. Bolshevik in June 1951 commented favor- ably on the newly adopted program of the Indian Communist party which turned its back on further encouragement of peasant re- volts and set the party's primary purpose as the creation of a revolutionary bloc comprised not only of the working class and the peasantry, but also progressive elements of the Sanitized - Approved For Releg k f DP79SO0427A000600010001-2 CY 7:1 Sanitized - ApWved For RdI' INA-RDP79 427A000600010001-2 intelligentsia and of the Indian bourgeoisie. India has con- sistently been treated as a special problem by Soviet tacti- cians. If Moscow intended its endorsement of the Indian Com- munist party's shift as a signal to Asian Communist parties generally, the message was slow in taking effect, for it was late summer 1952 before the last parties fell in line. At the September 1951 ECAFE meeting in Singapore the So- viet delegates, in an abrupt reversal from their previous har- rassment of participating Asian governments, offered to pro- mote the economic development of their countries by the ex- change of Soviet industrial machinery for local raw materials --a move which had all the earmarks of a propaganda gambit rather than a policy shift. Better evidence that Stalin's in- ner circle of advisers had concluded there was little likeli- hood of an early Communist victory in general Asian revolution, thus calling for a major change in strategy, is presented in the reports of discussions at a 12-day conference in November 1951 of Soviet Asian specialists of the Institute of Oriental Studies and of the party Central Committee's Academy of Social Sciences. Zhukov again fulfilled the role of regime spokesman. The burden of his argumentation was that Asian parties could not count on coming to power everywhere through "revolutionary armies," and that the main significance of the Chinese revolu- tion for other Asian countries was its blending Of anti-imperi- alist and anti-feudal elements into a single anti-imperialist front struggling toward independence. Resort to arms as a political tactic was not specifically disavowed, although it was considerably downgraded by the conference majority. With the pendulum now swinging in the direction of intensified political agitation, the conferees struggled to give more pre- cise content to the concept of a noncapitalist path of devel- opment for Asian countries, reopening the debates of the early 1920s over the possibilities of organizing a "socialist" order out of semi-feudal, semi-capitalist societies. A desire to open a new stage in Soviet relations with non- Communist Asia was apparent in Moscow's behavior in the United Nations, where consistent anti-Westernism was combined with limited overtures to the small-country delegations--an apparent reflection of a worldwide upgrading of possibilities for ex- panding Communist influence by manipulating traditional methods of diplomacy. Greater Soviet attention to international and Sanitized - Approved For Rele C ' DP79SO0427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Apved For Rdf'EX RDP79SG0427A000600010001-2 domestic developments having no immediate bearing on Soviet security or on the main arenas of East-West conflict was re- flected in the appearance of a symposium prepared by the In- stitute of Economics on The Peoples of Latin America in the Struggle Against American Imperialism, the first significant monograph devoted to this subject in the postwar period. No tour de force such as Varga's 1946 work, this book in defin- ing the task at hand as the "unmasking of the economic, politi- cal, military, and ideological expansion of American imperial- sim" is typical of Soviet scholarship of the period: the sub- stitution of quotations from the classics of Marx-Lenin-Stalin for original analysis and heavy dependence on second-hand ac- counts in the local Communist press. The January 1952 Lenin anniversary speech of party theoretician Petr N. Pospelov, surveying the current "crisis of the entire colonial system of imperialism" in optimistic terms, claimed to see "hundreds of millions of formerly backward and suppressed people" now beginning to play an active political role, in fulfillment of Lenin's predictions. That Stalin looked to increased economic contacts. as one of the promising avenues for breaking out of the semi-isola- tion the USSR suffered as a result of its role in Korea is suggested by the Soviet buildup for the April 1952 World Peace Council- sponsored'Moscow..Economic.Coriference. Communist_par- ties and peace council groups throughout the world attempted to drum up invitees, individual businessmen who might serve as future trade contacts or might serve as focuses for local agitation against Western trade controls. Moscow sought to stimulate interest in increased trade with the Soviet Union by a few highly selective trade offers, overtures to establish comprehensive economic relations, and limited offers of tech- nical assistance. Although infrequent offers to exchange So- viet industrial equipment and capital goods for raw materials and foodstuffs produced in the former colonial areas had been made previously, they had met with general skepticism in view of Moscow's general hostility to non-Communist governments. In seeking to expand trade and technical contacts, Moscow was acting from manifestly economic as well as political objec- tives. The USSR's desire to break the West's trade restrictions and open up Asia and Africa, if not Latin America as well, as sources of materials vital for Soviet strategic reserves and to facilitate its breakneck industrial expansion were undoubt- edly contributing factors. Despite heavy propaganda attention , g' RDP79S00427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Approved For Re~IZJ4 Sanitized - Apred For ReTeasINA-RDP7930427AO00600010001-2 controls, asserting that the Soviet Union no longer had a need for imports but could compete with the West on' the basis of its own resources. Stalin heir-apparent Malenkov's report to the 19th party congress which followed in October 1952 cited the general poverty of the peoples of "colonial and dependent" areas and forecast a period of continued decline in the economy of the underdeveloped countries which, in combination with a general shrinking of world markets for Western manufactured goods, would "drag down the economy of the capitalist world like a dead weight." Stalin's short concluding speech to the con-- gress was devoted exclusively to problems of the world Commu- nist movement, to exhorting more intense effort, and for reas- suring the faithful that greater successes were in the offing. Stalin and Malenkov's statements, in combination with Moscow's stepped-up political and economic overtures to the Asian and Arab states, suggested that the period of relative calm--and neglect--had come to an end. For obvious reasons, Moscow did not spell out its role in the intensifying troubles forecast for the capitalist world, but by implication, Communists would step up efforts to exploit political and economic differences whenever and wherever they appeared. In the November 1952 General Assembly session, Moscow moderated its previous stand on several minor measures involving a United Nations economic assistance role. Stalin, in a Christmas "interview" with James Reston, declared himself in favor of increasing economic and political relations, particularly with the smaller coun- tries. Stalin's continued rejection of Indian efforts to bring about an East-West compromise on Korea, however, acted as a powerful brake to Soviet efforts to get its friendship campaign rolling. With the January 1953 discovery of the "doctors' plot," Moscow's foreign countenance, mirroring its domestic one, abruptly became more hostile. Particularly during his last years, Stalin appeared to exercise a "dead hand" on Soviet policy with his inherent sus- piciousness of all forces which were not under his control. Postwar changes in Moscow's line, as also post-Korea changes, were made in the face of radically changed Asian circumstances --which took place with little or no influence from Moscow-- which Stalin undertook with reluctance. Sanitized - Approved For Re.EI RDP79S00427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Approved For R 1 -RDP79SO 27A000600010001-2 II, COLLECTIVE LEADERSHIP: March 1953 - January 1955 Stalin's sudden demise shook the whole of Soviet society. Since Stalin dominated all aspects of Soviet policy-making and implementation, and since he had taken only rudimentary steps to prepare for an orderly succession, his abrupt departure left his successors as stunned a$ was the ordinary 'Soviet citizen _;az-A,d on the ?, def ens ive ..' '.:. The unsteady coalition which now assumed command turned first to a reduction of ten- sion with the West in order to provide a breathing spell for consolidating their collective authority as well as their in- dividual positions. First of all, the new leaders sought to dispel the black clouds, domestic as well as international, generated during the dictator's final two months of rule, and to revitalize the moves made the preceding year toward a limited improvement in relations with the non-Communist world. Molotov's funeral oration attempted to affirm the new regime's dedication to carrying out a "Stalinist peace-loving foreign policy," which he interpreted as a desire for the development of "cooperation" and "business ties" with all countries. Malenkov's speech to the Supreme Soviet on 15 March 1953--just ten days after Sta- lin's death--sought to reassure the Soviet people and empha- sized his intent to pursue peace. By the end of March, Moscow had initiated a series of minor moves and token, steps intended to clear the air of the hostility engendered earlier in the year and to support the genuineness of its professed desire for improved relations with the West, A number of Soviet state- ments culminating in Bulganin's May Day speech emphasized the need for a reduction in the risk of war and called on the West to respond to Soviet peace overtures by abandoning the arms race and dismantling Western military bases close to Soviet territory. As the new leadership became more confident of its au- thority, the tempo of reform and improvisation in its foreign relations increased. In succession Moscow succeeded in "nor- malizing" relations with Greece, Israel, and Canada. Terri- torial claims against Turkey were abandoned, and new efforts were made to increase diplomatic and trade contacts, especially with Asian and Arab states. The Soviet peace offensive brought diplomacy and propaganda to bear in a combination unknown in Stalin's day. In their handling of various international issues, Sanitized - Approved For Fie ease : A-RDP79S00427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Appmved For R,qksA)OA-RDP79Se 427A000600010001-2 the new leaders displayed a considerable flexibility and a marked increase in sophistication as they sought by the very number and variety of their moves, many of which were merely the reversal of Stalin's gratuitous manifestations of ill will, to create the impression of a major shift of Soviet policy in the direction of detente. Soviet diplomats abroad undertook a widespread demonstration of good fellowship for their West- ern colleagues. The new leaders in Moscow, who stopped short of openly rejecting Stalin's methods in reaffirming his goals, dared privately to deplore "excesses" which had crept into Soviet foreign relations as a result of Stalin's personal di- rection of day-to-day diplomacy. The new more conciliatory features of Soviet foreign policy were interpreted for the home audience as testimony of the Soviet Union's growing self-as- surance and strength. This synthetic official optimism was not accompanied by any appreciable let-up in domestic propa- ganda hostile to the West, however. In addition to the peace offensive, which occupied Moscow's primary attention, the regime stepped out in the direction of increased economic contacts with the whole capitalist world. At the Geneva meeting on East-West trade, Soviet officials toned down their propaganda role and showed a marked business- like approach to the discussions. A May:.1953 Kommunist review of the major lines of Soviet economic policy pace Moscow squarely on the side of "widening economic cooperation and nor- mal trade relations with all countries" and for an over-all increase in international trade. At the same time, the author, A. Nikonov, a leading Soviet economist, reiterated the princi- pal lines of Moscow's attack on Western trade policies, which he held to be responsible for holding down the volume of trade, and on Western strategic commodity controls, which he wanted dropped in favor of the "re-establishment of a single inter- national market." Stepped-up efforts through diplomatic chan- nels showed that Moscow was looking toward an expanding exchange of goods with the major capitalist countries as well as with the independent countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In July it became apparent that the new regime was pre= pared to carry its overtures to the underdeveloped capitalist countries well beyond the limits implied in earlier overtures. At the 15 July meeting of the UN Economic and Social Council, Soviet delegate Arutyunyan announced Moscow's willingness for the first time to contribute to the UN's technical assistance program. While attacking the Western approach to technical r,~ Sanitized - Approved For Release A-RDP79SO0427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Appred For Res.&A-RDP79S(G427A000600010001-2 assistance and repeating the standard Soviet position that elimination of Western trade restrictions imposed on the weaker capitalist countries and the development of "normal trade" with all countries would do more to facilitate their economic development than any likely UN program, Arutyunyan nevertheless announced that the Soviet Union had set aside four million rubles--supplemented later by token amounts from the Ukraine and Belorussia--for the UN's technical assistance program.* The impact of Moscow's offer was reduced by Arut- yunyan's grudging endorsement--"it is better to let them trade normally with other countries and get the money they need that way that to render them so-called aid"--and by the gradual realization that the "contribution" in effect could be spent only within the USSR or for services of Soviet spec- ialists abroad and did not conform to,the requirements of the UN program. The initial four million rubles, as a result, went unused. The statement issued on 25 July 1953, on the oc- casion of the 50th Anniversary of Bolshevism, reflected the considerable degree to which the regime was willing to link belief in the possibility of a lasting coexistence with the capitalist world to a drive for increased economic ties with all countries. The "good neighbor" policy which Malenkov advanced in his 8 August 1953 speech to the Supreme Soviet, The Soviet Union has no territorial claims against any state whatsoever..,. Differences in the social and economic systemo,ocannot serve as an obstacle to the strengthening of friendly relations,.,. was intended to follow up Moscow's earlier overtures--such as its well-publicized surrender of nuisance claims against Turkey and Iran--and to pave the way for a bolder across-the-board approach to the newly independent states of Asia and Africa. Malenkov's remarks were keyed to a reassertion of Soviet strength, which within two weeks were buttressed by public claims to pos- session of the hydrogen bomb, as part of an effort to reinvigor- ate the Communist movement, which had become somewhat lethargic *Always constrained to show its policies as continuous and unchanging, Moscow later attempted to cover up its years of opposition to this program by falsely dating the inception of this program as '11953-195411, instead of 1950, and alleged the participation of the USSR, the Ukraine, and Belorussia from the beginning. Sanitized - Approved Fore eJ ,~IA-RDP79SO0427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - ApWved For #Req ECIA-RDP79S&0427AO00600010001-2 in the absence of strong one-man leadership and under the debilitating influence of the concerted effort to play down outstanding differences between the two world power blocs. The drive by Stalin's successors for "reducing inter- national tension" had helped reduce the diplomatic semi- isolation Moscow had suffered as a result of the Korean ven- ture and had succeeded in part in reducing pressure on So- viet positions both in Europe and in the Far East, but it had failed to attract Western concessions. Moreover, the peace offensive was not a suitable vehicle for helping to create the impression of a USSR rapidly growing in interna- tional prestige and authority--an impression which Communist leaders from the early days of the revolution had recognized as vitally necessary both to Moscow and to the world Commu- nist movement. The new foreign policy course indicated by Malenkov represented not so much a break with Stalinist poli- cies as it did a rejection of Stalinist tactics and the recognition that improved government-to-government relations would place the USSR in a better position to conduct a strong global policy. The cumulative effect of the minor moves un- dertaken by Moscow over the preceding five months made it ap- parent that a fundamental reorientation of Soviet tactics to- ward the underdeveloped countries had been decided on. The August 1953 appearance of academician Eugene Varga's Basic Problems of the Economics and Politics of Imperialism After the Second or ar, whit actor ing o t -e au or was prepared in 48-1951 and elaborated on in 1952-1953 in light of Stalin's Problems of Socialism and the 19th party congress discussions, provic eed an authors .five summary of the world views inherited by the regime. Varga's analysis harped on the coming disintegration of Western imperialism through failure to overcome internal and external "contradictions" and as- signed no great role to built-in antagonism between newly in- dependent Asian-African states and the West. Instead, he dwelled on rivalries among imperialist powers for influence and markets in colonial and formerly colonial areas and al- leged that the principal goal of American foreign policy was the economic and territorial redistribution of colonial ter- ritories of the world to its own advantage--a process he con- sidered well under way. Varga also repeated the standard charge that "rotten compromises" between local bourgeois par- ties and Western imperialist states had postponed the success- ful conclusion of the "national-liberation" struggle over much Sanitized - Approved For Re I~+RDP79SO0427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Appved For 9e0ICIA-RDP79427A000600010001-2 of Asia. Varga's work did not reflect the evolution which had begun toward a great accommodation of Moscow's policies toward prevailing moods in the underdeveloped countries nor provide a rationale for the new tack. It did, however, provide a focus for a limited re-evaluation of Moscow's views on "colonial" developments in the guise of scholarly criticism of Varga's book carried out over the succeeding six months. Following the September 1953 plenum of the central commit- tee, which confirmed Khrushchev as party first secretary and set off the offensive on the agricultural front, the decision to step up the foreign economic program was endorsed publicly in unmistakably official tones. Following up Moscow's grant of one billion rubles for North Korean rehabilitation, Premier Malenkov on 19 September called for "a new approach to solve the question of constructive and effective aid" to Asian coun- tries by "many states," implying Soviet willingness to assist the economic development of friendly non-Communist Asian coun- tries. Malenkov's cautious step was followed by diplomatic efforts to spark mutually reinforcing drives for increased trade and for the "exchange" of technical information and train- ing. Although the principal reason for Moscow's trade drive probably was the need for greater imports of consumer goods entailed in Malenkov's "new course" promises to raise consump- tion levels in the USSR, Moscow made a major effort to exploit its interest in increased trade as proof of its good will and as a demonstration of Soviet economic progress. Newly express- ed desires to import consumer goods were used as a peg for further allegations of the ridiculousness of Western restric- tions on trading with the bloc. Mikoyan's 17 October announce- ment of a new program on retail trade and production of consum- er goods underlined Moscow's interest in increased imports. At the same time, Mikoyan's statement was especially noteworthy for the lengths to which he went in attempting to justify the new program--as well as to bid for added international prestige-- by referring to the USSR's postwar strides in economic recon- struction and industrial development. Moscow hailed a growing list of new and revised trade agreements as proof of the fruits of its new program. Conclusion on 2 December 1953 of a five-year trade agree- ment with India pointed up the rapid rapprochement which had been developing between the two countries, speeded by the Sanitized - Approved For Re AJ'1RDP79S00427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Approved For Release IA-RDP793"427AO00600010001-2 moderation of Moscow's Korean stand following the death of Stalin. The agreement, looking toward increased exchange of a wide range of goods, contained in addition a vague clause concerning future Soviet technical aid. At about this time, Moscow apparently made overtures to extend technical assist- ance to Egypt and pressed similar negotiations with Afghanistan. A handful of Soviet technicians had been sent to Kabul the_ preceding April in connection with planning for the construc- tion of grain storage facilities, reviving a prewar tactic which had led Stalin to enter into contracts for the construc- tion of several industrial establishments in Turkey and Iran and to "lend" technicians to friendly Afghanistan. The an- nouncement on 21 December of the appointment of five new deputy chairmen of the USSR Council of Ministers--Saburov, Pervukhin, Tevosyan, Malyshev, and Kosygin--foreshadowed a broad increase in foreign as well as domestic economic activities. Malenkov, in replying on 31 December to questions submitted by Kingsbury Smith, renewed bids for expanded East-West trade as both a means of expressing and of promoting peace and international cooperation. Moscow's economic overtures attempted to play on local popular and governmental concern over export markets and the problems of rapid economic development, accompanied by exten- sive propaganda efforts to discredit Western economic and political influence and to exacerbate commercial as well as political friction between the little developed Asian, African, and Latin American countries and the major Western powers. Soviet spokesmen continued to reject the possibility of any compromise with capitalist methods of economic development and repeated standard allegations of the inevitable failure of bourgeois efforts to industrialize the "East." The..first serious post-Stalin study of the problems of economic growth in the former colonies appeared in the November 1953 Problems of Economics. The author, L. Fituni,, a specialist in nonbloc economic Developments, continued Moscow's attacks on Western- oriented economic policies but veered away from past Soviet condemnation of foreign economic assistance per se, conceding without elaborating the point that the extension of economic aid under proper conditions "promotes" international under- standing. A December review of the prospects of international trade in the same journal asserted the "great possibilities" bloc countries now had of developing trade "with all capitalist countries desiring to do so under mutually advantageous terms," and linked the Soviet trade drive with Moscow's continuing "peace" offensive and with moves to "aid the economic develop- ment of backward countries." Sanitized - Approved For Rg C -RDP79S00427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Apprb d For ReleaseR&A-RDP79S0 27A000600010001-2 In response to the need for a thoroughgoing reassessment of Soviet views on developments in the formerly colonial areas and to explore the processes of economic change abroad, a special conference of economists and orientalists of the Acade- my of Sciences and of the party central committee's Academy of Social Sciences was held in February 1954, ostensibly to dis- cuss the theses of Varga's Basic Problems.... The conference proceedings and lengthy critiques 'of thebook in both Kommunist and Problems of Economics were intended to present an u_p-moo- - date summary of o-scow current interpretation of such basic problems as the short-run prospects of world capitalism and of relations between the Western powers and their political and economic "dependencies." Untenable, as undermining the very bases of Communist evaluation of capitalist-world develop- ments, were Varga's views "minimizing" the extent and the im- minence of the "crisis" in world capitalism. Soviet economists seized on signs of a general economic decline in 1953 as proof that the standard thesis was not overdrawn. Reluctant to give up a theme vital to their proselyting effort, they encouraged the expectation that the troubles of the big powers would lead to economic disaster in the underdeveloped areas. At the same time, Varga was criticized for underestimat- ing the strengthening of the position of "young capitalism" in the former colonial areas, which was looked on as a favor- able development because it increased economic and political antagonisms within world capitalism. A concurrent review of world capitalist developments in 1953 published in Kommunist predicted that the 1953 economic downturn would lead the est to step up its efforts to balance its shaky economies by "in- tensifying the exploitation of backward countries and colonies" --buying raw materials in these countries at lower prices and selling them industrial products at more exhorbitant prices-- and foresaw only further reductions in the standards of living of the peoples in the underdeveloped countries most affected. Party Secretary and tIeoretician Pospelov's 21 January 1954 Lenin Anniversary speech--echoing his remarks on the same occasion two years earlier--singled out Asia as the "most vulnerable part of imperialism" and justified optimism among his listeners by citing the continued growth of the "popular resistance" movement throughout that continent. Although Mos- cow's attentions to the Arab world had increased over the past nine months, this to a considerable degree was a measure of the increasing tempo of political, economic, and social change Sanitized - Approved For ?ftff E J,IA-RDP79SO0427A000600010001-2 I b. FV6~ Sanitized - Ap~ved For e : IA-RDP795&0427A000600010001-2 there as the Soviet leaders continued to be suspicious of the revolutionary regime in Egypt. Moscow hailed Nasir's struggle for "immediate withdrawal" of English forces as an essential element in attaining "true independence," but attacked the policies of Egypt's "ruling circles" for their repression of Communists and other "progressives," for using force and meager land reform to quiet peasant unrest, and for their pro-German inclinations. The slight attention laid to non-Arab Africa and Latin America was a tacit admission that these areas, part of the "colonial reserve" of imperialism, were more or less effectively sealed off from Soviet influence. The conclusion on 28 January 1954 of a $3,500,000 credit and technical assistance agreement with Afghanistan set off an unprecedented propaganda campaign to convince underdeveloped countries of the genuineness of Soviet overtures to initiate trade and broad economic relations of a mutually advantageous, apolitical nature. At the 10th ECAFE meeting in Colombo, So- viet delegates again pressed Asian delegates for commercial ties, for initiation of exchanges, and for acceptance of tech- nical assistance. Moscow's numerous specific offers, public and private, were intended to whet local interest which govern- ments would find themselves unable to resists In March trade agreements were negotiated with both Egypt and,Jsrael,a'- The increase in economic overtures was more than equaled by the increase in political and propaganda attention to Ameri- can efforts to form Asian countries into an anti-Soviet coali- tion. The decision to bring a rearmed Germany into the West- ern alliance and to extend the anti-Communist defense structure throughout Asia posed a direct challenge to Moscow's year-long effort for a detente on its own terms. Moscow's public re- action to real or rumored negotiations between Western govern- ments and Asian states on defense pacts and possible military aid reflected great sensitivity over these developments which raised the prospect of transforming areas close to the USSR's southern border into centers of pressure on that extended flank. The USSR's series of diplomatic demarches backed up by propaganda pyrotechnics proved ineffective in heading off the projected alliances in the main, but it did succeed in polarizing Asian and Arab government and popular sentiment around this issue and making it the crucial test of Asian and Arab government relations with one another and with both East and West. Sanitized - Approved For Re If RDP79SO0427A000600010001-2 R E Sanitized - App9ved For RTea_q : A-RDP79S427A000600010001-2 First of all, Soviet political countermeasures featured efforts to draw India into a strongly anti-Western, anti- American position. Moscow has always accorded India great interest and predicted Indian developments would play a vital role in the struggle against "imperialism" in the East. The sheer volume of material devoted to India in Soviet publica- tions over the years has been impressive. Both the first edi- tion of the "Bolshaya" encyclopedia, published in 1937, and the second edition, published in 1953, gave almost 200 pages to India, much of it highly propagandistic. If developments flowing out of the Korean war had awakened Moscow to advan- tages of a friendly Indian neutrality, these views were rein- forced by Indian attitudes toward Indochina and concern lest the conflict there become an even more sensitive focus of East- West rivalry and engulf greater areas, possibly all of South and Southeast Asia, in the hot war. Moscow's concern was to encourage India and Nehru into an ever-stronger stand in favor of the bloc's "peace" program, Kommunist in February 1954 .,.the important role of modern India in the world arena, the positive contribution of the Indian peo- ple in the matter of peaceful settlement of contro- versial international problems, and India's attempts to convert the United Nations into a genuine forum for all the peoples of the world. The principal. factor working for Soviet-Indian rapprochement, however, was the deep-seated antipathy between India and Paki- stan which prompted New Delhi's violently adverse reaction to the gradual unfolding of an impending American military aid program for Pakistan. In a solid note of approval for the course of Indian foreign policy, Moscow welcomed the "vigi- lance displayed by the Indian leaders in connection with at- tempts of forces of aggression in Asia. The unmistakable build-up of East-West tension as the re- sult of developments in both Western Europe and Asia prompted an intense policy debate in top Soviet circles revolving around how far Moscow could go in antagonizing the West. Malenkov's 12 March 1954 "election speech" warning that atomic war might mean the "destruction of world civilization"--rather than just capitalist society--marked the high point in his efforts to convince his colleagues of the necessity for an accomodation with the West. His retreat the following month to the old Sanitized - Approved For Re ,~21RDP79S00427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Appoved For F~e a e IA-RDP79`9d0427A000600010001-2 formulation reflected his failure to carry the majority of Soviet leaders along with him on this issue--and with it the defeat of Malenkov"s efforts to dominate the ruling coalition.* At the same time, Soviet propaganda reflected concern that public statements of Western intentions in relation to inten- sification of the fighting in Indochina gave rise to the pos- sibility that the USSR and the United States might be drawn into atomic war without either side really intending it. Speeches by both Malenkov and Khrushchev at the April 1954 session of the Supreme Soviet tied bids for a reduction of international tension and "coexistence" with assertions of growing strength, implying no weakening of Soviet opposition to the West nor any concession on its part. Moscow's diplo- matic and propaganda support to countries involved in disputes with the West intensified. At the United Nations, Moscow heightened its support for Syrian complaints growing out of border clashes with Israel and over Israeli plans to divert Jordan River water, making a play for general Arab favor by demanding that "measures'"--unspecified--be taken against Israel. At the Geneva Conference, Molotov"s attempt to champion "peo- ples struggling for independence" was directed toward tying Western hands in Asia. In asserting the "full right of Asian peoples to settle their affairs themselves" and adopting the stand that developments in colonial and formerly colonial areas are "first and foremost their own business," Molotov sought to build up pressure for big-power agreement to a hands-off policy which would protect recent gains in Indochina. Moscow used the Chou-Nehru talks to further the picture of close Indian collaboration with the bloc and extracted the "Five Principles of Coexistence"--the "Panch Shila"--expressed in the preamble to the Sino-Indian agreement on Tibet signed 29 April as a charter for Asian-African neutralism, themes given heavy support at the World Peace Council meeting in Berlin in May. *Because o the demoralizing effect of such a thesis on Communists at home and abroad, Moscow could not publicly en- dorse this line even if Soviet leaders themselves believed it, Thus Malenkov"s aberration proved a handy club in the hands of his rivals to help oust him, one year later, from the premiership. Sanitized - Approved For ReI r ,? DP79SO0427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Approved For KeTease : IA-RDP79 427A000600010001-2 The USSR's reaction to the June 1954 overthrow of Guate- malan leftist "President Jacob. Arbenz, which it alleged to be the result of "intervention organized by US monopolies from Nicaraguan territory," was loud and bitter and attempted to appeal to world sentiment hostile to outside "interference." Soviet propaganda, besides reflecting Moscow's anger at the turn of events and its impotence to reverse them, sought to cover the Soviet Union's own role with this ''living proof" of its charges concerning the nature of American imperialism. Appointment of an ambassador to Indonesia in July culminated a period of intense Soviet interest in developments in that country arising out of Djakarta's unstable domestic political and economic situation and, even more, Indonesia's complex in- ternational troubles with the Netherlands and the United States. Heavy propaganda support was afforded Indonesian anti-Western moves, and the first order of business for the newly arrived Soviet staff appeared to be to press Indonesia to accept Soviet industrial equipment on easy-payment terms. Moscow's attitude toward Burma also had become noticeably more friendly. If events in Asia favored rapprochement with India, Indonesia, and Burma, Soviet overtures for stepped-up economic contacts, political demarches, and a succession of increasingly sharp propaganda warnings to other Asian governments--notably Turkey, Pakistan, and Thailand--concerning negotiations on area mutual defense pacts proved to little avail. Moscow pushed two logically contradictory but psychologi- cally complementary courses. On the one hand, its high-power- ed "peace" campaign was intended to exploit the universal fear of atomic warfare by generating pressures against military pre- paredness. It seized upon the Geneva Conference results as confirmation of the correctness of its line that peace could be achieved only through negotiations respecting the interests of "both sides." On the other hand, a Moscow-produced or Mos- cow-maintained climate of great East-West tension was essential to its policies toward the underdeveloped countries. Moscow aimed at persuading people that Western policies had brought the world--and kept it at--the brink of devastating war, and played on apprehensions arising out of the security pact nego- tiations which allegedly put Asia-Africa on the "front line" in any future conflict. The ineffectiveness of Moscow's ef- forts to turn its sporadic diplomatic and propaganda support and a modest expansion of economic relations to direct politi- cal advantage was pointed up in October by Nasir's signature-- despite months of fervent Soviet efforts to dissuade him--of Sanitized - Approved For Re,E!,-RDP79S00427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Appr wed For Re easen61A-RDP79Sf 27A000600010001-2 an agreement with Britain concerning the evacuation of troops from the Suez Canal zone on terms permitting their return in the event of a "third power" attack on the Middle East. On the economic front, Moscow stepped up its; efforts to capitalize on local desire for rapid economic development to introduce pioneering detachments of Soviet specialists and technicians under UN auspices and through direct bilateral agreements. By ostensibly participating in UN-sponsored pro- grams which enjoyed considerable popularity and esteem in the underdeveloped countries, Moscow sought to broaden the impact of its own as yet modest efforts and to introduce Soviet tech- nicians and scientists into countries and fields otherwise closed to it. Further, this contributed to the Soviet effort to play up the growing stature of the USSR as an advanced in- dustrial power and opened the way for undercutting Western-- and especially US--economic assistance programs on yet another front. Moscow cited the lack of political stipulations on UN aid and the "willingness of dozens of countries to go along with the UN program," but alleged the United States alone holds aloof for its own political and military motives. Soviet publicists, still obliged to present developments in the capi- talist world in terms of an imminent general economic crisis, stressed increasingly more unfavorable terms of trade for the underdeveloped countries. Varga, writing in the first (August 1954) issue of the new semi-scholarly monthly journal Inter- national Affairs (International Life), pointed to two years depressed pr ces for raw materials and food exports and to repercussions of impending American economic crisis as compell- ing reasons why underdeveloped as well as Western European countries should turn to expanded trade with the bloc as a solution to pressing economic problems. The long-awaited Soviet textbook Political Economy, the product of a group of writers including leading Ideologists Dmitry Shepilov and Pavel Yudin, signed to the press on 26 August 1954, followed Stalin's two-camp approach to the in- terpretation of world developments. The authors crudely as- saulted economic relations of the Western powers with the former colonies, alleging that foreign trade was "one of the sources of economic enslavement of backward countries by de- veloped bourgeois countries and (that it) widened the sphere of capitalist countries." Political Economy claimed advances for the "national-liberation movements"' n Indonesia and India but spoke in terms of greater political roles allegedly being Sanitized - Approved For RV J4-RDP79S00427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Appcved For 4TH ""C1A-RDP79;0427A000600010001-2 played by the "proletariat" and Communist parties, and the "national bourgeoisie" continued to be attacked as "weak and indecisive"--even in the struggle against imperialism. The hostility shown to nationalist "conciliatory" policies marked even independent India as a bourgeois entity and thus an enemy. In this and other formulations, the authors showed themselves hesitant to amend fundamental Communist theses to bring them in line with tactics Moscow currently followed in its relations with a number of Asian governments. In the fall, important works were published on the two areas of the world which to date had been generally beyond the scope of Soviet influence and at best on the periphery of So- viet interest. An imposing Institute of Ethnography symposium, The Peoples of Africa, under the joint editorship of philolo- g st B. Glderogge and ethnographer-political scientist I. I. Potekhin attempted a thorough analysis of African cultural achievements and political and economic developments area by area. Their general thesis, and that of Soviet Africanists generally, was that racial discrimination and economic exploi- tation are the twin bases of Western policy and views on Africa. To combat the West's views and to champion African peoples, Soviet Africanists advanced an interpretation of African devel- opments based on a "long and original path of historic devel- ment," of a past golden age which was destroyed by Western po- litical and economic intrusion, and in general attributing to Western influence all negative features of African life. Potekhin's summary views on the progress of "national libera- tion" acknowledged the absence of Communist activity in most of Africa, cited trade unions as the centers of anti-imperi- alist agitation where there are no Communist parties, and payed tribute to growing African participation in world "peace" and other fronts. A less substantial survey of the Institute of Economics by M. Grechev, The Imperialist Expansion of the US in Latin America After Wor3-d War II, was devoted principally To attacking postwar US Latinmerican policies and to reit- erating a strategy for local Communist parties based on at- tracting all antiforeign elements around "the working class and its ally the peasantry," a united front on Communist terms to put an end to the yoke of foreign monopolies, to give land to the peasants, to facilitate industrial development, to improve living conditions of all workers, and to carry Latin American countries on the broad road of progress and independence. Sanitized - Approved For R &h ;. -RD P79SO0427A000600010001-2 * TT Sanitized - Appr+aved For Relea se: ,IA-RDP79S$ 427A000600010001-2 By the close of 1954, the "good neighbor" policy which the Malenkov regime had followed--if at times.halfheartedly-- was no great success. The increase in Moscow's influence among extremist nationalist elements had been in direct pro- portion to the prevalence of virulent anti-Western sentiment arising out of unresolved territorial and other political dis- putes with the West and to a lesser extent to local frustra- tions over the failure of political independence to solve press- ing political, economic, and social problems overnight. So- viet attitudes toward nationalist movements and. their leaders --for example, Nehru, Sukarno, and Nasir--reflected only a step in-the direction of tactical cooperation. Moscow's di- lemma was that as nationalists these leaders had to be praised to the extent they were "anti-imperialist" but as bourgeois they had to be attacked for thbir commitment to capitalist methods and ideology and for their opposition or suppression of "progressive" elements. By the end of 1954 Moscow had come to the point of supporting nationalist governments ob- viously not in the Western camp, in the expectation that their greater self-assurance and self-expression would have the net effect of reducing Western influence and, to a degree, dis- crediting Western leadership. Any further concessions would have led to a deterioration of the morale of local Communist parties. Moscow scored an impressive propaganda breakthrough with the signing on 2 February 1955, after five months of negotia- tions, of the agreement to help finance and construct a major steel plant at Bhilai, India. This announcement foreshadowed a Soviet economic assistance program of new dimensions and gave a measure of concreteness to the image of two world eco- nomic systems in competition for influence and favor in uncom- mitted areas. Sanitized - Approved For Re C f-RDP79S00427A000600010001-2 r Sanitized - App coved For I ~kYfeWIA-RDP79 427A000600010001-2 III. A NEW POLICY TAKES SHAPE: February 1955 - December 1956 The demotion of Malenkov in February 1955 prompted Mos- cow to step out with a bolder policy both in regard to the Western powers and the politically uncommitted, economically underdeveloped countries. This was done in part to shore up domestic confidence, following the personnel shake-up, with harsher assertions of an increased international authority. Molotov's speech on 8 February to the Supreme Soviet apprais- ed relations with the West wholly in cold war terms and pre- sented an unusually clear rationale for Soviet cooperation with Asian and African governments. Acknowledging that the newly independent governments of Asia and Africa were still economically dependent on the West, the Soviet foreign minis- ter nevertheless found a basis for optimism in the fact that in questions of international relations, "they show concern for the maintenance of peace and the reduction of internation- al tension" and so were worthy of Soviet support. As had other Soviet leaders over the past year, Molotov singled out for particular praise the "international authority" of India, The Supreme Soviet resolution on foreign policy, which set forth the principal guide lines of the subsequent Bulganin- Khrushchev period, also called for the exchange of parliamen- tary delegations, a tactic Moscow had introduced the previous year by hosting several semiofficial parliamentary groups. The acceleration of Soviet moves in Asia and the Middle East reflected a recognition of the increased international status of Asian and African states and of the likelihood that their international role would continue to increase in import- ance. At the same time, it was intended as a partial answer to Western initiatives building up military and anti-Commu- nist political pressures along the USSR's southern borders, The regime's efforts to underscore Soviet military and econo- mic might furthered the impression that the new leaders were less disposed than Malenkov to seek accommodation with the West; in any event, the West's firmness in Europe held out the prospect that any Soviet probing there might lead to a nuclear war. Moscow's intention to seek a closer working agreement with Asian and Arab countries was made clear in its diplomatic and propaganda reaction to Middle East developments and in the fervor of its efforts to identify itself with the views and Sanitized - Approved For F&-RDP79S00427A000600010001-2 ;anitized - Apppved For W. IA-RDP79SQ+ 427A000600010001-2 objectives of the conference of 29 Asian and African coun- tries--including Communist China but not the Soviet Union-- at Bandung, Indonesia. A statement by the Soviet Foreign Ministry on 16 April 1955 presented detailed charges of "con- siderable deterioration" of the Middle East situation, al- leged that this was the direct result of Western efforts to form anti-Communist military blocs there, and offered, in terms more specific than ever before, official Soviet sup- port to area governments opposing Western policies. At the same time, Soviet propaganda hailed the prospects of Asian- African cooperation, and Pravda threw Soviet support behind any agreement which might Fe -reached by the Bandung powers in the direction of a common effort against "pressure and threat" from outside powers or in implementing individually or collectively the Chou-Nehru declaration on the "five prin- ciples of coexistence." Moscow's current appraisal apparently stemmed from optimism that "parallel" short-term interests of Asian-African states and the USSR, in combination with the inherently weak political and economic positions of area coun- tries, opened the way for a rapid increase in Soviet influence. Further indications that a fundamental reorientation of tactics was involved was the initiation of a wholesale shake- up of Soviet interpretation of developments in non-Soviet Asia and Africa. In late April 1955 there appeared the first issue of Soviet Oriental Studies, the functions and responsibilities of which were to tie research and Marxist-Leninist interpreta- tion to the immediate needs of Soviet diplomacy and propaganda. Kommunist in May kicked off a campaign to bring ideological formulations more in line with the Soviet posture of friend- ship toward the non-Communist countries represented at Bandung. Kommunist admitted that erroneous interpretations had crept into past Soviet assessments of anticolonial movements, and it criticized Soviet scholars, and by implication Stalin and those responsible for Moscow's foreign policy in the early post-Stalin period, for underevaluating the anti-imperialist significance of the nationalist movements. Foreshadowed in these programatic statements were stepped-up efforts to in- terpret the present and even the fairly remote past in anti- Western terms and to dissociate the current Soviet regime in the minds of the peoples of the neutralist countries from those past Soviet words or deeds which impeded closer rela- tions. Without providing clear new guide lines, Kommunist nevertheless indicated that a more optimistic appraisal of Asian-African developments was in order and that prosaic, Sanitized - Approved For ge1J,1A-RDP79S00427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Approved For ! !WaV. 6A-RDP79SW427A000600010001-2 mechanical applications of Communist theorems were to give way to a flexibility which owed more to cold war requirements than to the Communist classics. Moscow's new accommodation to neutralist-nationalist sen- timent was underlined dramatically in connection with the June 1955 visit to the USSR of Indian Prime Minister Nehru. Nehru, who had been described by Stalin's Asian spokesman Zhukov as "a cunning servant of Britain and the United States and a bloody strangler of progressive forces in India," now was prais- ed on all counts for his spiritual and political leadership of Asia and for championing progressive views on such major issues as Korea, Indochina, military blocs, and the banning of atomic weapons. A Russian translation of Nehru's Discovery of India was published in connection with the visit--despite passages scathingly attacking Communist tactics in India--and long "reviews" of the book in Kommuthlst and Soviet Oriental Studies used it as a point of departure in se ing forth the new Soviet line on Asian and African developments. Apparently encouraged by the prospects of this initial venture into the realm of "personal diplomacy"--Nehru's visit having been in- terpreted publicly as a "brilliant manifestation" of growing friendly relations between the two countries--Moscow extended invitations to the Shah of Iran and to Nasir. Efforts were initiated on an unprecedented scale to flatter neutralist lead- ers, the cultures of friendly countries, and Asian-African self- importance. Synthetic Soviet commemorations of Asian and Af- rican national holidays became a prominent feature of the new program. Pravda editor Shepilov--newly named a party secretary-- was sent to Egypt in connection with Cairo's Liberation Day celebrations as a personal emissary of Moscow's top leadership to impress on Nasir the potentials of closer Soviet-Egyptian cooperation. Moscow's moves to exploit the "Bandung spirit" as the in- ception of a coordinated Asian-African opposition to the West was accompanied by a series of diplomatic and economic steps --with appropriate propaganda orchestration--intended to build up a "posture of peace" to improve its prospects at the upcom- ing summit conference. Moscow's attitude appeared to hold out the promise of a major improvement in East-West relations and a general reduction of international tension, not just in Eu- rope but throughout the world. The Soviet people themselves were encouraged by the regime's propaganda to expect a grow- ing "businesslike atmosphere" in international relations. Sanitized - Approved For WtNj~TA-RDP79SO0427AO00600010.001-2 e w Sanitized - Appr'tbd For FKFJA-RDP79S027A000600010001-2 Bulganin's 4 August report on the Geneva talks to a special session of the Supreme Soviet balanced "Geneva spirit" gains-- a lessening of tension, increase in "mutual confidence," and the initiation of personal contact among top world leaders-- with a rundown of major substantive international problems outstanding. Concurrent with Moscow's pre-Geneva conciliatory posture to the West and Bulganin's sober appraisal of the results of the conference, the Soviet Union set in motion a chain of se- cret negotiations designed not to further the possibility of any mutual "hands off" policy in Asia-Africa, but to offset the consolidating pro-Western coalitions with a group of Arab states under its influence. Although Molotov's February 1955 foreign policy survey had been pessimistic on the Middle East, We cannot say that the national-liberation movement in the countries of the Arab East has attained the strength and momentum which this movement achieved in a number of other Asian countries..., intensified Soviet overtures to Syria and Egypt in the months following reflected a more hopeful view. Reports of various credibility that Moscow had made offers to sell arms to Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, India, and Afghanistan were confirmed in essence by Nasir's 27 September announcement of his arms deal with Czechoslovakia--obviously a dodge for a direct agreement between Moscow and Cairo. The supply of arms to a non-Communist government marked a sharp departure in Soviet practice and was a challenge to Western influence of a more intense and immediate nature than Soviet economic overtures. Discussions with Nasir were well advanced by the time of the Geneva talks, suggesting that Mos- cow early had hedged its bet that a conciliatory posture and such reasonableness as agreeing to the Austrian state treaty would encourage significant Western concessions. Moscow's immediate reaction to the surfacing of Nasir's agreement to purchase bloc arms was predictably defensive, attributing the Western uproar to a false interpretation of developments based on the West's own "exploitative practices." It went on, how- ever, to assert the "legitimate right" of all states to buy weapons for their defense without outside interference. Mos- cow's public and private follow-up was subdued, although the "Geneva spirit" in its relations with the West had already Sanitized - Approved For F k A-RDP79SO0427A000600010001-2 Sanitized - Approved For fLpMEgK-RDP79SO0427AO00600010001-2 Vow, W largely dissipated. Kaganovich's October Revolution speech, concurrent with the visit of Burmese Premier U Nu to Moscow and a definite coolness at the foreign ministers' meeting in Geneva, omitted any reference to a major shift in Soviet poli- cy implicit in the offers and deliveries of trade and tech- nical, economic, and now military assistance to Asian and Arab countries. Moscow continued the process of reappraising world devel- ments in terms justifying the development of closer government- to-government relations with Asian and Arab neutralists. Kom- munist in August had made a pioneering attempt to cite ''objec- ave consequences" of policies in the direction of peace, re- duction of international tension, and opposition to colonial- ism as a basis for singling out a category of politically in- dependent though economically dependent states which were worthy of support. K