TRANSPORTATION IN NORTH KOREA: ACHIEVEMENTS AND PROSPECTS 1951-61 AND 1967 PLAN

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CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7
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July 2, 2013
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November 1, 1962
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REPORT
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 -B-reREz_ N? 83 Economic Intelligence Report TRANSPORTATION IN NORTH KOREA: ACHIEVEMENTS AND PROSPECTS 1951-61 AND 1967 PLAN CIA/RR ER 62-36 November 1962 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports 1-eRE?T_ GROUP 1 Excluded from automatic downgrading and declassification Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 SECRET' ? CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Washington 25, D.C. 19 December 1962 83 MEMORANDUM FOR: Recipients of CIA/RR ER 62-36, Transportation in North Korea: Achievements and Prospects, 1956-61 and 1967 Plan, November 1962, SECRET SUBJECT Correction of cover and title page The date in the title on both the cover and the title page should read as follows: 1956-61 AND 1967 PLAN FOR THE ASSISTANT DIRECTOR, RESEARCH AND REPORTS: SECRET Chief, Publications Staff GROUP I Excluded from automatic down- grading and declassification 50X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 SECRET Economic Intelligence Report TRANSPORTATION IN NORTH KOREA: ACHIEVEMENTS AND PROSPECTS 1951-61 AND 1967 PLAN CIA/RR ER 62-36 WARNING This material contains information affecting the National Defense of the United States within the meaning of the espionage laws, Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans- mission or revelation of which in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 50X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S-E-C-R-E-T FOREWORD An attempt is made in this report 50X1 50X1 to evaluate North Korean plans for development of the transportation system through 1967. The Seven Year Plan (1961-67) of North Korea has now been underway for nearly 2 years, and the time is approaching when the phase of the plan to expand heavy industry, scheduled for 1964, will begin creating sub- stantial service requirements on the transportation system. The North Korean government has been vociferous with information regarding its progress and plans for the modern transport industry ex- cept for certain information that might have military intelligence 50X1 value. 50X1 50X1 - 111 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S-E-C-R-E-T CONTENTS Page Summary and Conclusions 1 I. Introduction II. Development of the Transportation Network 3 2+ A. Railroads 2+ B. Highways 6 C. Waterways 7 D. Civil Aviation 8 III. Transport Performance and Relationship to Output in Other Sectors of the Economy A. Performance 8 8 1. Freight Transport 8 a. Railroads B. Motor Trucks c. Waterways 9 10 10 2. Passenger Transport 11 3. Primitive Transport 11 B. Relationship to Output in Other Sectors of the Economy 12 IV. Inventory of Equipment and Operating Efficiency 12 A. Railroads 12 B. Motor Trucks 13 C. Waterways 15 V. Administration and Labor Force 16 VI. Investment 17 VII. Problems and Prospects 18 - v - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02: CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S-E-C-R-E-T Appendixes Appendix A. Statistical Tables Page 21 Tables 1. North Korea: Performance of the Modern Transport System, 1956-61 and 1967 Plan 2. North Korea: Average Length of Haul by Modern Transport, 1956-61 and 1967 3. North Korea: Volume and Amount of Passenger Transport by the Modern Transport System, 1956-60 4. North Korea: Selected Operational Data of Railroads, 1956-61 23 24 25 26 5. North Korea: Capital Investment in the Transportation and Post and Telecommunications Sector of the Economy Compared with the Total Capital Investment, Selected Years, 1954-67 27 Illustrations Figure 1. North Korea: Transportation, August 1962 (Map) inside back cover Figure 2. North Korea: Transportation and Economic Re- sources, 1960 (Map) following page 6 Figure 3. North Korea: Tons Carried by Modern Transport, 1956-61 and 1967 Plan (Chart) following page . . 8 Figure 4. North Korea: Performance of the Modern Transport System, 1956, 1961, and 1967 Plan (Chart) following page 10 - vii - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02: CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 50X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S-E -C -R -E -T TRANSPORTATION IN NORTH KOREA: ACHIEVEMENTS AND PROSPECTS* 1956-61 AND 1967 PLAN Summary and Conclusions Modern transport** in North Korea achieved a level of performance in 1961 about 2.5 times that of 1956, and prospects for nearly trip- ling by 1967 the level of tons carried in 1961 appear to be reasonable. The high rate of growth in transportation during 1956-61 was achieved mainly through intensive utilization of the rail system, but the acq3A- sition of relatively large numbers of motor vehicles for highway trans- port also was a factor. Increases in transportation performance have been adequate to meet the demands of the "flying horse" drive for rapid industrialization that began in 1958. The Seven Year Plan of North Korea calls for modern transport to carry nearly 220 million tons*** in 1967, slightly more than that carried by modern transport in Communist China in 1953, and to perform nearly 20 billion ton-kilometers, about one-half the Chinese ton- kilometer performance in 1950. This level of performance is expected to be attained through improvements in the rail system and the expan- sion of motor vehicle transport. Rail capacity is to be expanded mainly by electrification of the major rail lines. Motor vehicle transport undoubtedly will increase rapidly by the utilization of domestically produced trucks to provide feeder service for railroads and waterways. In general, the North Koreans have the capability to produce and use the basic equipment required to carry out their transport plan. There is some doubt, however, whether sufficient investment is being allocated to transport during the early years of the Seven Year Plan. Investment in transport will not be emphasized until the last 4 years of the plan period. Although the goals for transport performance in 1967 are ambi- tious, they probably will be accomplished provided the industrial and agricultural sectors of the economy move forward according to plan and generate sufficient traffic. * The estimates and conclusions in this report represent the best judgment of this Office as of 1 October 1962. ** The term modern transport as used in this report fefers to rail- roads, motor trucks and trailers, buses, and modern ships in the North Korean inland water and coastal fleets. The term native transport refers to animal-drawn and man-drawn carts, porter, and primitive craft such as junks and wooden sailing vessels. *** Unless otherwise indicated, tonnages are given in metric tons throughout this report. S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S -E-C-R-E-T Since 1954 the value of industrial production in North Korea has expanded slightly faster than the volume of tons carried by modern transport. Future industrial growth is planned to require a propor- tionately smaller number of tons carried. Such a relationship will be possible if the commodity composition of the traffic changes as expected. There may be proportionately less coal to be hauled as electric power production increases, and the industrial goods to be transported may con- sist of a higher percentage of high-value, low-volume products as indus- trial output increases and becomes more complex. In 1961, performance by all modes of transport in North Korea reached 77 million tons carried and 10.4 billion ton-kilometers (tkm). The rail system continued to be the major form of transport, accounting for 95 per- cent of the ton-kilometer performance. Motor truck transport, however, carried an increasing share of the total tons carried, 45 percent of the total in 1960 compared with 32 percent in 1956. Water transport, in spite of considerable effort to expand its services more rapidly, has accounted for less than 5 percent of the total performance. During 1956-61 the operating efficiency of the railroad system in- creased significantly, as indicated by a decrease in turnaround time of railroad freigbt cars from 5.1 days in 1956 to 2.96 days in 1961. This improvement, however, does not compare very well with the achievement in Communist China of a turnaround time of 2.47 days in 1959 with an average length of haul twice that of North Korea. During 1957-61 the average tonnage of freight trains was increased by 32 percent through a program to increase the carrying capacity of cars by the reconstruction of existing cars and by the addition of larger cars to the park. It is estimated that North Korea had 10,800 freight cars in 1961, about 600 more than in 1956, with the additions coming mainly from domestic pro- duction and reconstruction of war-damaged cars. Also contributing to the increased rail efficiency were improvements in the rail network, which included a modest amount of electrification of certain key lines and the installation of some automatic block signaling, welded rails, and mechanized loading and unloading facilities. Improvements in efficiency in truck transport have resulted in in- creases in output per truck of about 30 percent in terms of ton-kilometers and nearly 90 percent in terms of tons carried during 1957-60. It is es- timated that North Korea had 23,000 trucks at the end of 1961 compared with 10,000 at the end of 1956. , During 1956-59, trucks were imported from the USSR, but recently domestic production has reached about 3,000 2-1/2-ton trucks annually. - 2 - S -E -C -R -E -T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S -E -C -R -E -T I. Introduction North Korea is a comparatively primitive country in which human carriers using the A frame and oxcart and horsecart transport are still common, but modern transport has expanded rapidly since the rehabilita- tion of the devastation caused by the Korean War. Primitive transport continues to support local handicraft and agriculture, but modern trans- port has kept pace with the industrial development of the country. Tons carried by all forms of modern transport are estimated to have grown at an annual average rate of 22 percent from 1956 through 1961, resulting in a total of 77 million tons carried in 1961. Much of the growth was achieved during the economic drive called the "flying horse" program to accomplish by 1959 the goals of the First Five Year Plan (1956-60) in 4 years. The drive reached a peak of activity in 1959 and began to slow down during 1960. In most sectors of the economy the goals for 1960 were completed in 1959, but the plan continued through 1960. Although some maladjustments in the economy occurred in 1960 and 1961, the eco- nomic problems have not been nearly so serious or prolonged as those in Communist China. Apparently because of the setback in 1960 and 1961, the Seven Year Plan (1961-67) as originally announced in August of 1960 was revised downward in 1961 and made considerably more moderate. The present plan for economic development is an ambitious program, however, which, if successfully carried out, will make heavy demands on the physical and human resources of North Korea and also will involve rapid technological advances in industry and agriculture. This plan calls for industrial output by 1967 to be 3.2 times the level of 1960; agricultural output, 2.4 times; and national income, 2.7 times. During the first 3 years the plan is intended to alleviate shortages in con- sumer goods for a population of 11.5 million (as of the end of 1962) and during the last 4 years to develop further the already productive industrial sector of the economy. The development of the economy will place an enormous task on the transportation system, according to the North Korean press, and the railroads especially are expected to meet the growing requirements through technological improvements and the intensive use of the exist- ing facilities. Plans call for doubling the volume of freight to be transported by railroads, and the capacity of the railroads is expected to be expanded through electrification of the rail system. Investment in transportation, however, will not be emphasized until the last 4 years of the plan period. These plans lead to several questions which are dis- cussed here but which cannot be completely answered. Is the plan for transport in equilibrium with plans for agriculture and industry as a whole? Is enough emphasis being placed at present on technological - 3 - S -E -C -R-E -T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S-E-C-R-E-T improvements in transportation, and does North Korea have available the technological knowledge and capability to carry out the planned improve- ments in transportation? The importance of making such an analysis of transportation in North Korea does not stem from the level of transportation performance in com- parison with other countries, because the transportation system of North Korea accounts for only a small percentage of the total transportation performance of the Sino-Soviet Bloc. In spite of its rapid growth, trans- portation performance in North Korea is less than that of any country of the Bloc except Albania and North Vietnam. This analysis is important, however, because of the significant role of transportation in the North Korean economy and because of the possibility of future hostilities be- tween North Korea and South Korea. Together with the communications sector, transportation directly accounts for about 9 percent of the gross national product. The modern transport industry employed about 72,000 persons in 1960, or about 5 percent of the total number, ex- cluding cooperative members, employed in all branches of the state- operated sector of the economy. 1/* II. Development of the Transportation Network A. Railroads At the end of 1961 the length of rail network in operation in North Korea amounted to about 3,850 kilometers (km), 85 percent of which was standard gauge and the remainder narrow gauge. Since 1956 the length of the network has been extended about 200 km. 2/ The network is nearly all single track except for a few short sections of double track near major cities (see the map, Figure 1**). The major rail line along the west coast from the Chinese border to Kaesong was double tracked origi- nally, but the rails and crossties of one track were removed by the Japanese during World War II for use as replacements on other lines. Although it seemed for a few years that the North Korean government would have the second track replaced, present plans to increase the ca- pacity of the route call for the electrification of the single-track line rather than for the restoration of the second track. 1/ Although the entire rail network has been extensively rehabil- itated and improved since the Korean War with the help of various coun- tries of the Bloc, it still lacks uniform standards. The weight of the rail varies considerably on any one line, and sharp turns and steep grades on some lines impose restrictions on speed and limit the loads of trains. Work is continuing to improve these conditions, however, 50X1 ** Inside back cover. S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S-E-C-R-E-T and speeds of more than 100 km per hour on major trunk lines have been claimed.)1/ The system is being modernized with the installation of some automatic block signaling, considerable amounts of heavy-duty and welded rails, and mechanized loading and unloading facilities. Elec- trification of all main lines is being undertaken to replace steam pro- pulsion, and work to convert the entire network to standard gauge is underway. The Japanese were responsible for the first period of extensive rail construction on the Korean Peninsula, which took place immediately before and during the Russo-Japanese War (1904-05). Military consider- ations governed the construction of the lines, and emphasis was placed on north-south lines that provided Japan with direct routes to Manchuria and the USSR. The rail system also was planned to serve the economic needs of Japan, the north-south lines tieing the resources of Manchuria and Korea into the production complex of Japan. Lateral lines were neg- lected. The mountainous terrain has influenced further the establishment of railroads in a longitudinal pattern. _.5./ The division of the peninsula into North Korea and South Korea created additional problems in utilizing the rail system for internal development of the North Korean economy. Although work is progressing toward adapting the rail system to the needs of the economy and developing other modes of transportation to supplement the rail system, some major features of an integrated and ef- ficiently operating system may not be completed even by the end of the Seven Year Plan. The principal north-south lines are still connected with only one east-west line. Although the east-west line has been electrified to expand its capacity, it is congested by the exchange of goods between east-coast and west-coast industrial centers. On the second east-west line a 38-km section from P'yongsan to Chiha-ri is now in operation, but the remaining section of about 100 km through extremely mountainous terrain from Chiha-ri to Pokkye-ri is not scheduled for completion until 1964. Another important link of the rail network under construction is located along the east coast between Ch'ongjin and Najin near the Soviet border. The completion of this 78-km section, planned for 1963, will speed up the delivery of coal from northern collieries to the industrial centers ./.; shorten the distance to the junction with the Soviet rail system at Podgornaya*; and relieve congestion on the main line extending north from Ch'ongjin, which has considerable traffic in iron ore and forms one of the major connections with the Chinese rail system at Sang- sambong and Namyang (see the map, Figure 2**). * The section between Hongui in North Korea and Kraskino in the USSR constitutes the transloading area. This section crosses the Tumen River at Podgornaya, a village in the USSR. ** Following p. 6. -5- Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S -E -C -R -E -T By electrifying the major rail lines, the North Korean govern- ment expects that the rail system will be able to carry the increased traffic generated by the Seven Year Plan. Electrification of rail lines did not progress as planned under the First Five Year Plan (1956-60), which contemplated that all rail lines would be electrified by 1967. Actually, only 202 km had been electrified by the end of 1961. // Plans now call for electrification by 1967 of about 1,500 km of main line, about 40 percent of the present system, which will carry from 65 to 70 percent of the total volume of rail freight in the country. L8/ Lines to be electrified include the east-coast line as far north as Ch'ongjin and the west-coast line from Sinuiju to Kaesong. Past progress does not indicate that the goal will be accomplished, but, with trained workmen and experienced administrators, which by now are likely available, and with the diversion of sufficient resources for the purpose, progress may be rapid. The present electrified line consists of three sections: the 129-km section of the east-west line between Sinsongch'on and Kowon, one section on the east-coast line, and another short section on the line that connects with the Chinese system at Manpiojin. During the first half of 1962 the east-coast line extending south from Songjin (Kimch'aek) to Hongwon was reported to have been electrified. 2/ Although North Korea has little excess capacity for hydroelec- tric or thermal electric power production, new powerplants of both types currently are under construction throughout the country. Production of electric power is planned to increase from 10.4 billion kilowatt-hours (kwh) in 1961 to 17 billion kwh in 1967. Hydroelectric powerplants furnish nearly all production at present, but thermal electric powerplants being constructed principally near coal mines will provide an increasing share of the total production. The railroad system, however, has con- sumed an insignificant proportion of the electric power and in 1967 will still require less than 2 percent of the planned output of electric power to transport the planned level of rail freight traffic by electric traction. B. Highways At the end of 1961 the highway network in North Korea consisted of about 20,000 km of roads of varying quality. Beginning in 1957, the goal was to improve the quality of the network, which had been recon- structed hurriedly for makeshift use after the war because of possible resumption of hostilities. By the end of 1959, most major roads and bridges had been reconstructed with permanent structures according to standards adopted by the North Korean government. EV In 1960 and 1961, major emphasis was placed on further improvement of principal roads. Only 335 km were reported as newly constructed or expanded during 1957-60. 11/ In spite of extensive reconstruction the highway network consists mainly of gravel or dirt roads, intended for light traffic only. - 6 - S -E -C -R -E -T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 NORTH KOREA: Transportation and Economic Resources, 1960 5 0 X 1 Figure 2 giHydroelectric power Mineral and metal processing ? Engineering industry ? Light industry Chemicals Coal .5Z, Cu Copper ZNFe Iron '5Z,Mg Magnesite ?X,Pb/ZaLead/Zinc O 25 50 75 Miles O 25 50 75 Kilometers Railroad ? Road 42 ? 41,) 18+ Pu shun oSai-ma.cht An lung 4-1 V.Z . .? ?Jilt UP'UNG zof.Q> akchu ;',L;?1 CHO SU-RI niniu KusOng ? ....?.....3 P'an?shih , CM?an, Kuiang- dong Sungan ; CHINA P',YONGYA KIYA NG-NI ChinnArnp'o 9 ,HWA NGHA E ? k a n Chaeryding ChangyOn 55 ngun YELLOW SEA ? ? mip:o (S gnarl) anwdin Lin chiang ? J..r/ -Manp'oun Kanggye .) Koin.dong Changun ? u ch'on ' 211 Tun?hua .....p.....r. _ jHyesenfin I ( fr' , gang__ HamhOng PON'GUN 6kch'On ,YO ?NGNAM Ono dong GCHON SamdOng Boundaries and names ore not necessarily 124 those recognized by the U.S. Government. u Kow K_saesOng ..??????? e t, 126 ,Pfrr Mun ,WOnsa ? Ho.lung 0 (San tao?kou) ? ??????.? Tu- n Haps Ki5r.nd6k5Z),,/Ze onggun. Toandonggu HOCH'ON m Pukc ? 46 g-di 0 ? se ungnam Anby6n Se p'cis,r Kosong 'yeingg ng, ???????./...????11?.?????:,.." Suwon I. e + Ch'unCh'On I, Jo r\--; SOUTH KOREA )A,t Sdiho-ri SOnglin (Kirnch'aek) anch'On SEA OF JAPAN DEMARCATION LINE Chech'6n - 1 3: nyun Aoji?clong oer'yOng Nat n 11" lsOngIIn 42 40 ? -38 36546 8.62 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 50X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S-E-C-R-E-T Paving is limited to a few long sections leading to P'yongyang and pos- sibly to a few short sections near other main cities. Other heavily traveled sections are scheduled to be paved during the Seven Year Plan. 1E/ Early in 1960, all the principal highways of North Korea (com- prising Classes I and II in the North Korean government road classifi- cation) generally were in good condition. These highways are built and maintained by the central government. Class I highways connect provin- cial capitals and foreign countries with P'yongyang; Class II highways connect seats of local government with the main highway system. Al- though a small number of bad curves and grades still existed in 1960, the general alignment of all principal highways had been greatly Im- proved. New bridges were for the most part built of concrete, with a roadway width of 6 meters. However, all secondary roads, classified as Class III, were in poor condition. The old bridges, built during the Korean War, were still in use in many places. Maintenance of Class III and other local roads is the responsibility of the local or provincial governments. 11/ C. Waterways About 3,200 km, or 20 percent of the river system of North Korea, are deep enough to sustain cargo-carrying vessels. 111/ The Yalu River has the longest navigable distance and serves as the only means of transportation in some of the mountainous regions. The Tumen River is important for the shipment of timber. In general, however, the rivers of North Korea are shallow routes that are suitable mainly for junks and native craft. Navigation is interrupted by freezing from December to March and by floods from June to August. The only improvements under- taken have been dredging and maintenance of deepwater channels in or near the estuaries of the most important rivers. Important coastal ports, which are mainly natural harbors along the east coast, include Ch'ongjin, Najin, Wonsan, and Hungnam. On the west coast the only port of sufficient depth for oceangoing ships is Nampto, located about 30 km from P'yongyang, in the estuary of the Tae- dong River. As a result of the wartime destruction of a large part of the fleet, ports, and shipyards, water transport has not been important, and the ports are used mainly by the Korean fishing fleet and by vessels moving in short-distance coastal traffic. The North Korean government developed extensive plans for the reconstruction of water transport to relieve the railroads of some of the foreign trade traffic and heavy domestic traffic along each coast, but these plans have been only mod- estly successful. In the past several years, European and Bloc ships have been calling at several ports, especially Nampto and Ch'ongjin, but only at Ch'ongjin is quay-side anchorage available for ships with - 7 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S -E -C -R -E -T a draft of more than about 20 feet. Small Japanese ships have called at Chiongjin and Chtaho since about 1955, and a number of Soviet ships from the Soviet Far East have called each month, particularly at Najin and Unggi. Reports from all ports indicate that stevedoring and lighter service is scarce and poor. Dredging and expansion of port facilities are being carried out to meet the requirements of foreign ships, and increased shipping activity can be expected, although progress in these areas likely will be slow. D. Civil Aviation North Korea expended considerable effort to reconstruct and im- prove the country's most important airfields after the Korean conflict, but very few of the fields are used to provide civil air service. Most of the good airfields are located along the west coast, near the China border, or near P'yongyang. Only one airfield can sustain heavy trans- ports of the Tu-104 type, and 17 can sustain only light transport planes of the Li-2 type. Most of the latter airfields have concrete runways 4,000 feet long or more but were constructed for jet fighter operations and therefore are considered incapable of sustaining heavier aircraft. Roads between the airports and the rail network or cities are mainly earthroads. 15/ Civilian air service is operated by the national airlines on at least one domestic route: from P'yongyang to Ch'ongjin, with a stop at Hamhung. The North Korean national airlines also operate a twice-weekly international service from P'yongyang to Peking, and China provides re- ciprocal service on the same route. Weekly service between Moscow and P'yongyang is maintained by the USSR via Novosibirsk with 11-18 planes. North Korea probably has only four aircraft in civilian service, three Li-2's and one I1-14, which are Soviet-built, piston-engined aircraft. III. Transport Performance and Relationship to Output in Other Sectors of the Economy A. Performance 1. Freight Transport In 1961, performance by the modern transport system of North Korea reached 77 million tons carried and 10.4 billion ton- kilometers (tkm), both about 2.5 times the level of performance in 1956 (see Table 1* and the chart, Figure 3**). The share of tons carried by the railroads decreased during the period from about Appendix A, p. 23, below. ** Following p. 8. - 8 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Million Metric Tons Carried 300 200 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 .9 8 .7 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 NORTH KOREA TONS CARRIED BY MODERN TRANSPORT 1956-61 AND 1967 PLAN :t TiDfAl...7-_TR?ANSPORT_ =4- Figure 3 MN MMIMMI WM= EIMINEMEN EMENNEMEN 11111111111MUMMEN IIIMMEMEMMEM -MMM-==ffiMMMMWM- RAILROADS /MOTOR-TRUCKS = --- -EMEMENEELIEE_ MEEP --E-10.F1/46-ffig - Main mama? -11111121112IMME- MEE- -M;Em - - MaliailliMEMMEN.Ttimmdla .11IIMACIMMYEEll mum mom= _ =MB F. I=== 36711 10-62 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02: CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 1967 Plan GROUP 1 EXCLUDED FROM AUTOMATIC DOWNGRADING AND DECLASSIFICATION 50X1 50X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S -E -C -R-E-T 64 percent in 1956 to a little more than 50 percent of the total in 1960 and 1961. In terms of ton-kilometers, however, the railroads continued to perform more than 95 percent of the total, indicating the importance of the railroad system in long-distance traffic. During 1956-60, motor truck transport carried an increasing share of the total tonnage, a trend that had continued since the years before the Korean War, when motor trucks accounted for less than 10 percent of the total tonnage carried. From 32 percent of the total tonnage in 1956, the share carried by motor trucks increased to a high of 45 percent in 1960 (see the chart, Figure 4*). In 1961 the share performed by water trans- port was about 4 percent of the total tonnage and less than 2 percent of the ton-kilometers, in both cases only slightly higher than in 1956. Air transport has accounted for less then 1 percent of the total per- formance in any one year. If the Seven Year Plan is successful, the proportion of tons carried by rail and by motor vehicles in 1967 will be nearly reversed from their 1956 positions: motor vehicles will carry 61 percent of the total tonnage compared with 32 percent, and railroads will carry 34 per- cent compared with 64 percent. Although plans have not been announced for ton-kilometer performance, it is estimated that the railroads will continue to perform nearly 90 percent of the total, and motor vehicles as well as water transport will show only modest increases in their re- spective shares of the total. a. Railroads Performance by rail transport from 1956 through 1961 increased at an average annual rate of about 18 percent in terms of both tons carried and ton-kilometers. The high rates of growth in the earlier years have tapered off since 1959. In order to achieve the planned goal of 75 million tons carried and 17.5 billion tkm in 1967, 1.?./ an increase of 10 to 11 percent annually will be required during 1962 through 1967. An increase of 6.5 million tons, or nearly 16 percent above the level of 1961, is planned for 1962. 17/ The average length of haul of all freight by rail remained between 220 and 240 km from 1956 through 1961, and only a slight decrease is planned by 1967. Of the major commodities transported by rail during 1956, coal accounted for 26 percent of the total tonnage; construction materials including cement and timber, 29 percent; and minerals and metals, 12 percent. Although detailed information is not available for any year since 1958, these same commodities accounted for 27 percent, 32 percent, and 15 percent, respectively, during that year, indicating a trend toward greater reliance on the rail system to transport * Following p. 10. - 9 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S -E-C-R-E-T industrial and construction materials for the industrial expansion program. Grain accounted for about 4 percent of the rail tonnage carried in 1956 and in 1958, or about the same percentage as in Commu- nist China during 1958. More than 95 percent of the coal imported and produced in North Korea moved by rail in 1957. At present the rail- road system is a principal consumer of coal in the country, but it is possible that the percentage of the total rail tonnage occupied by coal may be reduced as electrification of the railroads progresses. The North Korean planners expect that when the main rail lines are electri- fied, only one-fifth of the coal now being used by the railroads will suffice to produce the electric power needed for railroad operation. b. Motor Trucks It is estimated that tons carried by motor trucks in- creased from about 9.2 million tons in 1956 to about 32.6 million tons in 1961, indicating an average annual rate of growth of nearly 29 per- cent. Although such a rate of growth seems high, increases in inventory and improvements in operating efficiency (which are discussed in the fol- lowing section) put this increase within reason.* The Seven Year Plan calls for tonnage carried by motor transport by 1967 to be 3.9 times the level of 1960, which amounts to an average annual rate of growth of about 21 percent. If motor transport grows as planned, by 1967 it will carry nearly 80 percent more tonnage than that carried by the rail sys- tem. Such a performance in 1967 is possible if motor transport continues to expand to provide feeder service for rail and water transport; to replace primitive transport, especially in rural areas; and to support production at mines and industrial plants not located on the rail net- work. The average length of haul by motor vehicles, which has decreased from about 14 km in 1956 to 10 km in 1961, apparently will remain short, as the Seven Year Plan forecasts that the rail transport system will continue to be the major form of long-distance transport (see Table 2**). c. Waterways In spite of considerable investment, effort, and prop- aganda directed toward the expansion of water transport, performance by this means of transport, in terms of tons carried, increased at a * Data for motor truck transport given in North Korean official re- leases, however, indicate a level of performance since 1958 of more than double this estimated tonnage. Apparently the inflated performance an- nounced for 1958,i the first year of the "flying horse" program, has never been publicly revised, and because the data for performance during each of the following years have been announced merely as percentage in- creases above the previous year, the mistake has been carried forward. ** Appendix A, p. 24, below. - 10 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 NORTH KOREA PERFORMANCE OF THE MODERN TRANSPORT SYSTEM 1956, 1961, AND 1967 PLAN THOUSAND METRIC TONS CARRIED 981 3.496 3,350 4.4% 1956 MILLION TON-KILOMETERS 1961 RAILROADS MOTOR TRUCKS---,,, WATERWAYS 1967 Plan RAILROADS MOTOR TRUCKS.? 9,900 4.5% WATERWAYS 36712 10-62 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02: CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Figure 4 50X1 100% 129 2.9% 31 0.796 100% 339 3.3% 165 1.6% 100% 1,340 6.796 MOO 5.5% GROUP 1 EXCLUDE? FROM AulOmATIC DOwnCRADING. AND DECLASSIFICATION 50X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S-E-C-R-E-T slower rate than that by motor vehicles from 1956 through 1961. The average length of haul increased by more than one-half to nearly 50 km, with the result that the ton-kilometer performance showed a slightly higher increase than did that of motor transport. Nevertheless, the North Korean government states that water transport, which carried only: about 3.4 million tons in 1961, is lagging behind. By 1967 the volume . of water transport is planned to be 3.3 times the level of 1960 and ton- kilometers eight times. 12/ Although it is doubtful that these increases will be achieved, the failure of water transport to fulfill its plan will not be significant, as it will continue to account for a relatively small proportion of the total transportation performance. 2. Passenger Transport the validity of data 50X1 released by the North Korean government on passenger transport, but the released data seem reasonably in line with the rates of growth in freight transport North Korea has 50X1 emphasized motor bus transport as the principal mode of passenger trans- port. Motor buses have been imported and some have been produced domes- tically. Official travelers are given priority in rail travel, and it is difficult for unofficial travelers to obtain railroad tickets. Al- though bus service does not extend to many mountainous areas, bus routes do reach county seats and laborers' districts where no railroad exists. As a result, the number of passengers traveling by motor transport in- creased from about 17 percent of the total of 46 million passengers carried by modern transport in 1949 to nearly 80 percent of a total of about 294 million passengers in 1960. The number of passengers travel- ing by motor transport in 1960 was 3.6 times the number in 1956, slightly less than the increase estimated for motor truck freight during the same period. Rail transport carried only 20 percent of the passengers and accounted for about 70 percent of the passenger-kilometers in 1960, leaving less than 1 percent of the total performed by water transport (see Table 3*). 3. Primitive Transport In contrast to the practice in Communist China, primitive transport is seldom mentioned in official releases of information by the government of North Korea. a common form of 50X1 transport in North Korea is the human porter using an A-shaped frame to carry large loads on his back. Apparently the government would rather not publicize the fact that primitive transport not only has continued in North Korea but probably has expanded. Teams of oxen and horse carts have been organized and are administered at the provincial level. In 1958 the volume of freight transported in the whole country by such teams was announced as 4.2 times the 1953 level, and freight turnover was about 2.2 times. 22/ * Appendix A, p. 25, below. S -E -C -R -E -T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02: CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S-E-C-R-E-T B. Relationship to Output in Other Sectors of the Economy In 1960 the index of industrial production, measured in terms of value added in mining and manufacturing in North Korea, was 442 (1954 being the base year), and the index of total tons carried by modern transport was 384. A simple,correlation between the two indexes was computed for the years 1954-60, and a formula was derived for the regression line. By assuming that the same relationship between the indexes will continue through 1967 and by substituting the planned level of industrial production for 1967 in the formula, it was found that the index of tons carried should reach 1,186 by 1967. The index of tons carried planned for 1967 is 1,106, or only 93 percent of what would be expected if the trend line were followed. This plan indicates that North Korea expects to reach the planned level of industrial pro- duction with a proportionately smaller number of tons carried. Such a relationship will be possible in 1967 if the commodity composition of traffic changes as expected. For example, if consumption of coal is greatly reduced by the electrification of the rail lines and if the goods produced by industry gradually consist of a higher percentage of high-value, low-volume goods, the value of industrial production un- doubtedly will increase at a faster rate than transportation performance. Agricultural output, moreover, is planned to increase at a slower rate than other sectors of the economy and therefore will generate propor- tionately less volume to be transported. IV. Inventory of Equipment and Operating Efficiency A. Railroads It is estimated that the inventory of railroad freight cars in North Korea increased only slightly from about 10,200 cars in 1956 to 10,800 cars in 1961. 21/ The rolling stock sent by other Bloc countries to North Korea arrived before 1956 for the most part and was reported to have included nearly 2,000 boxcars from Communist China and 45 refrig- erator cars from East Germany. 22/ Since 1956, additions to the inven- tory have been mainly from domestic production and from reconstruction of war-damaged cars. According to North Korean official announcements, more than 2,000 freight cars were produced domestically during 1957-61, although these data undoubtedly are inflated by the inclusion of non- main line cars. On the assumption that the rolling stock park includes 1 locomotive for each 30 freight cars, the park probably includes at least 360 locomotives, between 30 and 50 of which probably are electric locomotives. The Seven Year Plan envisions an annual output of 2,000 freight cars by 1967, for a total production of 13,000 cars during the plan period. Also, a total production of 200 electric and diesel loco- motives and more than 450 passenger cars is planned during 1961-67. Two electric locomotives reportedly were produced during 1961 as well as the first railroad passenger car made from North Korean materials. 2.3_/ - 12 - S -E -C -R -E -T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S -E -C -R -E -T In recent years, railroad operating efficiency in North Korea has not improved as planned, although the improvement has been substan- tial (see Table )1.40. Freight car turnaround time was reduced from 5.1 days in 1956 to 3.1 days in 1960 but not to the 2.5 days desired by the Minister of Transportation. A further improvement to 2.96 days was re- ported for 1961, and a goal of less than 2.5 days has now been set for 1967. 2/1/ The average load per loaded car was said to be 30 tons in 1958, and although the goal for 1959 apparently was 35 tons, an average of 33.1 tons was reported for 1959. The goal for 1967 for the average load per loaded car has not been announced, but a program is underway to increase the carrying capacity of cars both by reconstruction of existing cars to carry heavier loads and by adding larger cars to the park. The average tonnage of freight trains was 32 percent higher in 1961 than in 1956. If the average freight train tonnage is raised by another 20 percent as planned by 1967, it seems reasonable to assume that the average load per loaded car will be at least 35 tons and may reach 40 tons. About 9,000 cars were required in 1959 to carry the reported performance of 35.1 million tons, assuming an average load per loaded car of 33.0 tons and a turnaround time of 3.1 days. This figure rep- resents an operating park** of about 88 percent of the estimated in- ventory of 10,200 cars for that year. Similar computations for 1960 and 1961 indicate that the proportion of the total inventory in oper- ation increased to about 93 percent. Such high ratios may reflect an improved maintenance and repair capability, as new railroad car build- ing plants and repair shops have been built in the past few years, but these high ratios may also indicate either some degree of inaccuracy in the various reported operating factors or an inventory larger than esti- mated. To carry 75 million tons in 1967, with a turnaround of 2.5 days and an average load of 35 tons per loaded car, an operating park of 14,700 cars will be needed. If the average load increases to 40 tons, an operating park of only 12,840 cars will be required. The addition of 13,000 cars to the park during the plan period would seem to be more than ample to replace old cars and to permit some shortfall in the goals for the various operating factors. B. Motor Trucks It is estimated that North Korea had 23,000 civilian trucks at the end of 1961, and the inventory of civilian trucks, which increased * Appendix A, p. 26, below. ** The operating freight car park is calculated by multiplying the number of cars loaded per day by turnaround time. The difference between the total park and the operating park is the so-called reserve park, which includes cars idle for lack of assignment as well as those idle for repairs. -13 - S -E -C -R -E -T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S-E-C-R-E-T rapidly from about 10,000 units in 1956, can be expected to continue its expansion. The increases during 1956-59 resulted principally from imports of about 6,000 trucks from the USSR. Although North Korea may continue to import large-size or specialized trucks, future increases in the inventory will come mainly from domestic production, as a small but well-balanced motor vehicle industry has been developed. Production is confined as yet to 2-1/2-ton, 4-by-2 trucks based on the Soviet GAZ 51. 2.52 Output of these so-called "Victory 58" trucks at the Tokch'on Factory increased from 100 trucks in 1959 to 3,100 in 1960 and 3,300 in 1961. Plans call for production of 4,700 trucks in 1962 and 10,000 in 1967. If the planned level of tons carried by motor trucks in 1967 is to be achieved, it will be necessary for all of the domestically produced trucks to be added to the North Korean truck park, although the country probably will export a few trucks to increase national prestige abroad. The machine building industry also produces spare parts, except tires, for most of the truck in- ventory. Buses and small automobiles also are reported to be in series production. Experimental production is underway on 6-ton and 10-ton trucks, but production of such vehicles will prove uneconomical in North Korea. Even if large trucks are produced, they would have limited use in the country, for the roads for the most part are not constructed to sustain heavy traffic. About 47 percent of the total truck inventory in 1958 was as- signed to the Vehicle Transport Bureau (VTB) of the Ministry of Trans- portation, and the remainder was assigned to organizations and enter- prises under other ministries. 2.Y A similar breakdown for any year since 1958 is not available, but at present the percentage probably greatly favors the VTB. The policy has been to increase the inventory of trucks under the VTB faster than the number assigned to nontransport organizations because it was found that trucks under nontransport enter- prises have very low operational rates. According to North Korean of- ficial statistics, the number of trucks under the VTB increased by 25 percent in 1958 compared with 1957, while those under nontransport enterprises increased by only 1 percent. It was also announced that in 1960 the number of vehicles under the VTB increased by 40 percent com- pared with 1959. Eyi The higher utilization rate of trucks under the VTB undoubtedly has been one of the factors contributing to the increased efficiency of the truck park. By using inventory and performance data, computations show that the annual ton-kilometer output per truck in North Korea increased by 29 percent in 1960 compared with 1956 and that tons carried per truck increased 87 percent in the same period. In 1961, however, performance per truck decreased 11 percent in terms of ton-kilometers and 17 percent in terms of tons carried compared with 1960. the increases shown in earlier years were achieved mainly by improved -14- S -E -C -R -E -T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 50X1 50X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S-E-C-R-E-T coordination, such as arranging loads for the trip both ways; by im- proving maintenance and repair of vehicles; by increasing the use of trailers hauled behind conventional trucks; and, most important, by implementing the two-shift system. There is nothing to indicate that trucks were overloaded as they were in Communist China during the "leap forward" campaign, but there are numerous references in North Korean publications to the poor maintenance and repair of vehicles that caused mechanical troubles while the trucks were on the road. Apparently such troubles were the reason why one transport group in P'yongyang achieved a net operational rate* of only 80 percent compared with the planned 95 percent. Ejti The decline in output per truck indicated for 1961 pos- sibly can be attributed to a shortage of cargo to be transported; to the transfer of numerous trucks to rural areas to bolster agricultural production; and to the increased use of domestic fuels, which undoubt- edly reduced efficiency. Because all petroleum products consumed in North Korea must be imported and because North Korea is short of foreign exchange, truck transport has been forced to conserve gasoline. In 1958 the North Korean Cabinet ordered that every year, beginning with 1959, 75 percent of the total number of trucks and 50 percent of the automobiles exist- ing at the beginning of the year should be modified within a few months so as to use substitute fuels. This order included all trucks except those with a loading capacity of more than 5 tons. Devices to save gas- oline were ordered attached to all vehicles permitted to use gasoline. 22/ Substitute fuels included anthracite coal, briquets, charcoal, and car- bide. Work norms for trucks and drivers were adjusted to require less time in operation for trucks burning substitute fuels, with a lower rate for trucks using coal and carbide than for trucks using charcoal. Judg- ing from a fairly constant rate of imports of gasoline for a number of years, the conversion of some vehicles at least must have been accom- plished. Just what effect the conversion had on efficiency has not been announced at the national level, but propaganda from various provincial groups claims that trucks powered by indigenous fuels operate as well as gasoline-powered trucks. One such announcement claimed that remodeled trucks climb hills 1,000 meters above sea level as well as gasoline- powered trucks, even with 5-ton to 7-ton trailers behind them. 2iV C. Waterways In 1958, North Korea had about 500 small craft of all kinds, only 3 of which were more than 100 tons. The government recently stated that there was a pressing need for more ships. So far the ship- building industry has produced only a few small ships, but it now claims * Proportion of the total time actually spent in transport work, ex- cluding time for repairs and going to and from the work site. -15- S -E -C -R -E -T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S -E -C -R -E-T to have the capacity to produce 3,000 deadweight (DWT) cargo vessels. The first such ship, which was launched in 1961, was equipped with a coal-fired Steam engine that also was said to have been built in North Korea. The industry expected to complete a 31500-DWT fish refrigeration ship by the end of 1961. _32/ In addition to building vessels, North Korea has acquired a 31032-DWT cargo ship from Bulgaria. 2/ Although the ship is reported to be flying the North Korean flag, no information is available concerning its activities. V. Administration and Labor Force At the present time, although the railroads were formerly admin- istered separately from other forms of transport, the Ministry of Trans- portation, headed by Kim Hoe-il, controls all forms of modern transport in North Korea. The executive branches of the Ministry include various bureaus and departments, a number of which deal with the operation, con- trol, and construction of the railroads. One of the most important bureaus controlling railroad transport at the national level is the Transportation Bureau, which at the end of 1961 was authorized to organize headquarters for combined control over railroad transport ac- tivities at railroad stations, factories, and enterprises. It was ex- pected that these headquarters could more efficiently operate freight cars entering the premises of factories and enterprises and could help the factories solve various transportation problems related to their production activities. 13./ Responsibility for the actual operation of the railroads is assigned to four regional administrations, with head- quarters located in P'yongyang, Kaech'on, Hamhung, and Ch'ongjin. The Motor Vehicle and Road Management Bureau, which was placed under the Ministry of Transportation in 1957, allocates all motor vehicles, distributes and manages fuel and oil, directs the construction of roads and bridges on Class I and Class II highways, and supervises the business activities of the provincial motor vehicle divisions. The Marine Trans- portation Management Bureau manages the operation of all North Korean vessels, directs construction of new vessels, and controls the ports and the local organs that control transportation on each of the rivers. The Air Bureau has similar responsibilities for civil air transport and civilian airfields. The number of persons employed in modern transport in North Korea increased about 31 percent from 1956 to 1960, from 55,000 to 72,000, compared with increases in employment during the same period of 80 per- cent in all state-operated enterprises and 138 percent in modern in- dustry. The following tabulation shows that althouel employment in transportation is an insignificant part of the total estimated nonagri- cultural labor force, which includes workers in handicraft industry, it accounts for an important part, about 5 percent, of the labor force - 16 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S-E-C-R-E-T employed in state enterprises in 1960. Also noteworthy is the fact that transportation employed about one-tenth of the number of persons employed by modern industry in 1960. 3)2/ Total labor force Nonagricultural labor force Labor force in state enterprises Of which: Thousand Persons 4,00o 1,600 1,50o Industry 700 Transportation 72 The productivity of labor in the transportation industry was re- ported to be about 80 percent higher in 1960 than in 1956. 151 Pro- ductivity in motor transport increased at a higher rate than the aver- age for the industry as a whole, and productivity in rail transport made only modest gains during these years. VI. Investment After the reconstruction of the transportation system during 1954-56 was basically completed, investment in the transportation sector (includ- ing communications) decreased in absolute terms and as a percent of the total capital investment. In 1957-60, transportation received 7.7 per- cent of the total capital investment in the economy made through the state budget compared with 13.1 percent during 1954-56 (see Table 5*). The actual proportion of the total investment going to this sector during 1957-60 was considerably less than the allocated 10.1 percent in the orig- inal 1957-61 plan. 36/ The absolute amount invested each year in terms of 1950 prices declined from a high of 50 million new won** in 1954 to 17 million in 1957, but since 1957 the amount has gradually increased. Ej Neither the amount of investment in transportation in 1961 nor the pro- portion of the total investment of 7 billion won planned for 1961-67 allo- cated to the transportation sector has been announced. It has been re- ported, however, that investment in transportation as a sector of the economy will not be emphasized until the last 4 years of the plan. In Appendix A, p. 27, below. ** Won values in this report are presumed to be in new won and may be converted to US dollars at a rate of exchange of 2.57 won to US $1. This rate does not necessarily reflect the value of the won in terms of the dollar. - 17 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S-E-C-R-E-T the first 3 years, investment will be concentrated on expanding and consolidating established productive facilities in the machine build- ing and chemical industries and also in light industry and in fishing and agriculture. During the last 4 years, new construction in trans- portation, fuel, power, mining, and other key undertakings as well as in the chemical and machine building industries will be emphasized. If the extensive plans announced for transportation are to be accom- plished by 1967, it would seem that the sector should receive about 700 million won, or about 10 percent of the total investment, about the same proportion as it received during 1954-60. Even the investment of 10 percent of the total is small, however, compared with the rate of investment in transportation in other coun- tries. During 1953-57, Communist China allocated 13 percent of the total capital investment, including nonbudgetary investment, to trans- portation and communications, and it is believed that the proportion increased after 1957. Although North Korea has not been attempting to expand the transportation network as Communist China has, North Korea has invested large sums in the electrification of parts of the rail network. In North Korea the part of the total investment in the transpor- tation sector allocated to railroads has been about 55 percent, accord- ing to data available for 1957 and 1958. 38/ In Communist China the comparable figure was 66 percent in 1953-57. 12/ Another 15 percent of North Korean investment in transportation went to highways and 8 percent to post and telecommunications, leaving about 22 percent for waterways and civil aviation.112/ Waterways must have received by far the larger share of the latter figure because the plan for each year has emthasized the importance of developing water transport. Air transport has re- ceived little attention. VII. Problems and Prospects The goals for transportation in North Korea in 1962 and 1967 are ambitious, but they probably can be accomplished provided the industrial and agricultural sectors of the economy move forward according to plan and generate sufficient traffic. There is some doubt that the plans for production of rolling stock will be fulfilled, but failure in this field would not be crucial. In case of necessity, North Korea could continue to import rolling stock. Plans to improve water transport have had re- markably poor success in the past, but again this deficiency is not im- portant, because water transport contributes only a small part of the total transport performance. Regarding technical and industrial knowledge required for the long- range development of North Korea, it may be significant that the -18- S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02: CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S-E-C-R-E-T government has informed the scientists of the country that certain in- formation is essential if the Seven Year Plan is to be completed suc- cessfully. In the field of transportation the desired information in- cludes information on the automation of signals and other safety de- vices for rail transport, research on new types of steel for truck parts, mass production casting techniques for automobile parts, and information regarding production of large trucks and of ships up to 10,000 tons. It is doubtful, however, that this information is absolutely essential for the transport industry to reach its goal for 1967. In the case of the rail system, automatic block signaling would improve efficiency, but certainly more significant is the electrification of main lines, for which technical knowledge apparently is available. Production of large trucks and ships is not necessary in North Korea, and if such were avail- able, they would have limited use. A higher grade of steel for truck parts would alleviate some maintenance problems, and mass production casting techniques would speed up production of trucks, but neither is essential. The basic requirements for increasing transportation per- formance are present already or the essentials can be obtained with a reasonable investment program. It seems to be characteristic of Communist-planned economies that the amount of investment allocated to develop the transportation system is barely sufficient to permit transportation to meet the demands placed on it by industrial expansion, and such is believed to be the case in North Korea. Although the transportation system will not have excess capacity if this happens, it will meet the demand for service. It also seems characteristic of Communist economies that plans for transportation generally underestimate the transportation performance needed to reach industrial goals but that the goals for transportation generally are ex- ceeded. If this experience is repeated in North Korea during the next few years, transportation performance will expand roughly in the same relationship to industrial production as in the past. The progress already made by the transportation industry of North Korea undoubtedly has greatly increased the ability of the country to wage war. Future progress no doubt will enhance this ability further. Major emphasis has been placed on the improvement of international rail connections with the USSR and Communist China and of the rail system in the southern part of the country near the line of demarcation, improve- ments that may serve military as well as economic goals. - 19 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02: CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S -E -C -R -E -T APPENDIX A STATISTICAL TABLES - 21 - S -E -C -R -E -T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S-E-C-R-E-T Table 1 North Korea: Performance of the Modern Transport System 2/ 1956-61 and 1967 Plan Year Thousand Metric Tons Carried Percent of Total Railroads Motor Trucks Waterways 12/ Total Railroads Motor Trucks Waterways 1956 1/ 1957 2/ 1958 1959 1/ 1960 ly 1961 g/ 1967 Plan 18,281 21,455 28,200 2/ 35,132 38,645 41,000 75,000 la/ 9,169 13,891 17,500 2/ 28,878 34,348 32,600 134,000 li 981 1,095 1,980 2?/ 2,754 2,990 3,350 9,900 1/ 28,431 36,441 47,680 66,764 75,983 76,950 218,900 64.3 58.9 59.1 52.6 50.9 53.3 34.3 32.3 38.1 36.7 43.3 45.2 42.3 61.2 3.4 3.0 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.4 4.5 Million Metric Ton-Kilometers Percent of Total 1956 2/ 4,288 129 31 4,448 96.4 2.9 0.7 1957 2/ 5,072 189 37 5,298 95.7 3.6 0.7 1958 6,300 2/ 213 2/ 69 2/ 6,582 95.7 3.2 1.1 1959 1/ 7,798 304 104 8,206 95.0 3.7 1.3 1960 I/ 9,123 332 136 9,591 95.1 3.5 1.4 1961 g/ 9,850 339 165 10,354 95.1 3.3 1.6 1967 Plan 17,500 J.2/ 1,340 1,100 1/ 19,940 87.8 6.7 5.5 a. Excluding performance by civil air transport, which accounts for less than 1 percent of the total modern transport performance. b. Including both inland and coastal waterways, for which separate estimates are not available. Data were converted from nautical miles at the rate of 1.853248 km per nautical mile. c.J. d. 212/, giving percentage increases above 1946 and the previous year. e. In 1959. highway freight tonnage was 165 percent of the level in 1958, and highway freight turnover was 143 percent. La/ f. 45/. h. III/. i. Freight carried by motor vehicles will increase more than 2.9 times during 1961-67. 1418/ j. During 1961-67 the volume of water transport will increase 2.3 times and freight turnover more than seven times. L9/ k. Estimated, assuming an average length of haul of 10 km. - 23 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S-E-C-R-E-T Table 2 North Korea: Average Length of Haul by Modern Transport 2/ 1956-61 and 1967 Kilometers Year Freight Traffic Railroad Highway Waterway 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1967 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960W 235 236 223 222 236 240 233 14.1 13.6 12.2 10.5 9.7 l0.4 1012/ Passenger Traffic 32 34 35 38 45 49 111 59 55 55 12/ 56 57 6.5 5.9 6.0 6W 6 18 19 16 16W 15 a. Information computed from data in Tables 1 and 3, pp. 23, above, and 25, below, respectively, unless otherwise indicated. b. Estimated. -24- S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S-E-C-R-E-T North Korea: Table 3 Volume and Amount of Passenger Transport by the Modern Transport System 2/ 1956-60 Year Railroads Highways Inland and Coastal Waterways Total Railroads Inland and Coastal Highways Waterways Thousand Passengers Percent of Total 195612/ 36,853 64,759 882 102,494 36.0 63.1 0.9 1957 12/ 43,529 94,481 1,280 139,290 31.3 67.8 0.9 1958 42,700 ../ 137,000 gl/ 1,466 2/ 181,166 23.6 75.6 0.8 1959 1/ 55,300 190,000 E./ 1,600 h/ 246,90o 22.4 77.0 0.6 1960 59,500 E/ 233,000 E/ 1,700 la/ 294,20o 20.2 79.2 0.6 Million Passenger-Kilometers Percent of Total 1956 12/ 2,179 419 16 2,614 83.4 16.0 0.6 195712/ 2,374 562 24 2,960 80.2 19.0 0.8 1958 1/ 2,349 820 24 3,193 73.6 25.7 0.7 1959 1/ 3,100 11140 26 4,266 72.7 26.7 0.6 1960 1/ 3,390 1,11.00 26 4,816 70.4 29.1 0.5 a. Data are believed was 0.2 percent or les c. Estimated, assumin e. 2/ f. g. Estimated, assuming h. Estimated, assuming J.14/ to exclude intracity traffic. Excluding passengers carried by civil aviation, which s of the total passenger-kilometers performed by modern transport in 1956-57. g an average haul of 55 km in 1958 and 57 km in 1960. an average haul of 6 km. an average haul of 16 km in 1959 and 15 km in 1960. -25- S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Table 4 North Korea: Selected Operational Data of Railroads 1956-61 Year Freiglit Car Turnaround Time (Days) Locomotive Running Distance (Kilometers per Day) Average Technical Speed of Train 21 (Kilometers per Hour) Average Operational Speed of Train12/ (Kilometers per Hour) Average Tonnage of Freight Trains (Metric Tons) 1956 2/ 1957 2/ 1958 1959 s/ 1960 1961 5.1 4.4 3.7 2./ 3.1 3.11/ 2.96/ 223.6 244.o 260 d 284. 293.8 V N.A. 27.2 29.7 30.6 I/ 33.0 33.3 E/ N.A. 18.7 20.3 19.6 1/ 20.4 20.8 B./ N.A. 628 659 712 2/ 785 806 1/ 830 12/ a. Average speed during running time only, excluding stops. b. Average speed, including stops. c. d. e. f. g. -26- S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 S-E-C-R-E-T Table 5 North Korea: Capital Investment in the Transportation and Post and Telecommunications Sector of the Economy Compared with the Total Capital Investment 2/ Selected Years, 1954-67 Year Total Capital Investment Through the State Budget for the Economy (Million Current New Won) Transportation and Post and Telecommunications Total (Million Current New Won) Percent of the Total Capital Investment for the Economy 1954 330 66 20.0 1956 351 28 7.9 1954-56 average 357 47 13.1 1959 620 55 9.0 1960 567 42 7.4 1957-60 average 500 39 7.7 1961 590 12/ N.A. N.A. 1961-67 7,000 700.J l0/ b. 6 c. _1/ d. Estimated. 27 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 R Next 2 Page(s) In Document Denied Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 50X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 50X1 FIGURE 1 41 40 39 38 37 NORTH KOREA TRANSPORTATION AUGUST, 1962 STANDARD GAUGE RAILROADS (4'8A") Ii Double track Single track Single track, under construction Single track, electric NARROW GAUGE RAILROADS (2,6") ' Single track ROADS - Main surfaced road Secondary surfaced road 4," Selected port 0 25 50 75 I--1 1---1 II ____I Statute Miles 0 25 50 75 I--i F---i II I i Kilometers 124 125 43 42 126 127 128 129 SUNGARI RESERVOIR hOtesL (Lung.ching-t un Ho-lung (Samtao-kou) n'.1\ ? oeryong dong T'u-men47 Na a Hunyun angsam ong Malin Sosura.clong Linrchiang SusOng CH'ONGJIN Nanarp,. ongsOng Hujugoup Huch'ang sanpn Chi-an Sat-ma.chi Kangg e A ungsa KosOng-ni SONGJIN (KIMCH'AEK) MUSO- DAN anch'em Sakchu Pukch'Ong Ch'aho AN.TUNG Ch6 ,Tasad SIN-DO iju Uu U champ Pi hyon 6-dong 4CharyOngwan SO ch'On Pukchin Sinh Ong SOho-ri 0 ri Hongw6 Ku sOng T aech'6n TaedonY wig HAMHU NG MAYANG-DO I-ICI NGNAM 6 Chongju OnghOn SINMI-DO S6J0 MA TO NGJOSON- M AN --Ssunch 'On Sukch'On,,, Kowon SEA Sunan YangdOk Kan dong OnjOng.ni hunghw Munp g-n TAEGANG-GOT kp'yong-m oNClioNG- NA V ongyang WoNSAN Majonmi ? HANGNYONG DAN Samdfing Si liseinam ?!:?T'ongch'On e I q egang Koksan d ,,,. 41., gram _I hiha-ri Hwach'on-ni h ngj-n ----.--... ?, r .,.,'? ..,,,?:,,:; \ r t. )Sine LSeP.?Stini ansang- Marhwi \-ri es , ,) SW-lung Pokkye-rei h'ac-ngd?.ri I i, ch'ifin w,,,,,, % P'yongg ng I ..' 1 d K--4...hwa / apich'OnjOm i '''' Sibyomm. 1 ...--, ,.....-- ? .. -,---...,...../ o., f2Ch'" won 55 P'y ng n ti, SON- TO s'kr6 CH.O DO Tae-dong SinwOn-n OF CHANGA DAD-DAN KosOng DEMARCATION LINE JAPAN CHANGSAN- GOT TAEDONG-MAN PAENGNANG-00 X \ Kuanz- hasuji Hwach'On Yanggu Yangyang Reservoir Hivach'on KAESONG Upch6-ri SOCH'ONG -DO TONGSAN?GOT UijOngbu Hongch'on YELLOW" KANGHWA-DO rgeiF4 o YONGY11- DO a% INCH'orl,? Yangp'y,ong Samch'6k AnsOng Ulchin Tanyang h'6n an KYONGNY61.81.-YOLTO .Yesan Ha rnch'ang AnCion ANMYON-DO 124 125 Boundaries and names ate not necessarily those recognized by the U.S. Government. 126 127 TAEa, 128 129 gdOk 130 36545 8-62 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 50X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7 SECRET SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/07/02 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002500130002-7