GROWTH OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN COMMUNIST CHINA 1952-60

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• Collection: General CIA Records
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• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 40
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2013
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 1, 1961
• Content Type: REPORT

,
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CONFIDENTIAL
Economic Intelligence Report
N? 3
GROWTH OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
IN COMMUNIST CHINA
1952-60
CIA/RR ER 61-48
December 1961
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
CONFIDENTIAL
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J'EGREI '
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
WASHINGTON 25, D.C.
N? 3
19 February 1962
MEMORANDUM FOR: Recipients of CIA/ER ER 61-48, Growth of
Industrial Production in Communist China,
1952-60, December 1961, CONFIDENTIAL
SUBJECT Correction of the Chart, Figure 4, in ER 61-48
The accompanying chart, Figure 4, has been corrected and should
replace the Figure 4 following page 3 of the report.
FOR THE ASSISTANT DIRECTOR, RESEARCH AND REPORTS:.
chief, Publications Staff
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PER CAPITA PRODUCTION OF CRUDE STEEL, ELECTRIC POWER, SULFURIC ACID
AND COTTON CLOTH IN THE USSR, COMMUNIST CHINA, JAPAN, AND THE US,
1952 AND 1960
CRUDE STEEL
(Kilograms)
ELECTRIC POWER*
(Kilowatt-hours)
1952
1960
SULFURIC ACID
(Kilograms)
1952
35536 11-61
*Gross basis
COTTON CLOTH
(Linear meters)**
1952
1960
**Except Japan, .which is in square .meters.
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41
4
CONFIDENTIAL
Economic Intelligence Report
GROWTH OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
IN COMMUNIST CHINA
1952-60
CIA/RR ER 61-48
WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law:
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
CONFIDENTIAL
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CONTENTS
Growth of Industrial Production in Communist China,
1952-60
Appendixes
Page
1
Appendix A. Statistical Tables 5
Appendix B. Methodology 21
1. Computation of the Index in Table 1 . 21
a. Computation of the Sector Indexes . 21
(1) Estimates of Physical Production 21
(2) Prices Used 23
(3) Estimates of Value-Added Weights
for Each Commodity 24
(4) Special Problems in the Compu-
tation of Two Sector Indexes . . 25
b. Computation of the Indexes for Heavy
Industry and Light Industry 26
(1) Gross Value of Production for Each
Sector
(2) Value Added by Production for Each
Sector
(3) Weights for Each Sector
c. Computation of the Index for Total
Industry
2. Computation of the Index of the Gross
Value of Industrial Production
in Table 2
26
26
27
27'
27
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Tables
1. Index of Estimated Total Industrial Production
in Communist China, with Value-Added Weights,
1952-60
2. Index of Estimated Industrial Production in Communist
China, with Gross-Value Weights, 1952-60
Page
7
3. Indexes of Gross Industrial Production in Communist
China, 1952-60 9
I.
Physical Production of Major Industrial Commodities
in Communist China, 1952-60
10
5.
Estimated Value per Unit of Major Industrial Products
in Communist China, 1957
16
6.
Index of Estimated Production of the Metal Products
and Machinery Sector in Communist China, 1952-60 . .
19
7.
Index of Estimated Production of the "Other Consumer
.7;.?
Goods" Sector in Communist China, 1952-60
20
8.
Aggregate Values of Heavy and Light Industry in
Communist China, 1955 and 1967
28
Charts
Figure 1: Yearly Percentage Changes in Estimated Indus-
trial Production in Communist China, with
Value-Added Weielts, 1953-60 following page .
Figure 2. Indexes of Estimated Growth of Industrial Pro-
duction in Communist China, by Major Sectors,
with Value-Added Weights, 1952-60
following page
Figure 3. Contribution of Handicraft Industries to the
Total Industrial Production in Communist
China, 1952, 1957, and 1960
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Figure 4. Per Capita Production of Crude Steel, Electric
Power, Sulfuric Acid, and Cotton Cloth in the
USSR, Communist China, Japan, and the US,
1952 and 1960 following page
Figure 5. Comparison of Official Claims with the Estimates
in This Report of the Annual Increases in the
Gross Value of Industrial Production in Com-
munist China, 1952-60 following page . . . .
C-0-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
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GROWTH OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN COMMUNIST CHINA
1952-60
Growth of industrial production** in Communist China-during::1952-60
has been remarkable but less rapid than is claimed in official Chinese,
statistics. Industrial production in 1960 is estimated to:haVe been,:
more than four times the level in 1952, an increase equivalent to an
average annual rate of growth of about 20 percent for the 8 years.***
Production in heavy industry increased at an estimated average annual
rate of 27 percent during the period, or almost three times as rapidly
as light industry. Value added by heavy industry was 71 percent of the
total value added by industry in 1960 compared with 46 percent in 1952.
The trends in total, heavy, and light industrial production during
1952-60, on a value-added basis, are shown in the chart, .Figure 1.t
The rapid growth of the heavy industry sectors .-'such'as ferrous
metals, metal products and machinery, electric power, chemicals, and
construction materials -- and the comparatively slow expansion of the
light industry sectors -- such as textiles and clothing, foods, bever-
ages, and tobacco -- are depicted in the chart, Figure 2.t
Rates of growth in industrial handicrafttt-in Communist China during
1952-60 were significantly lower than in the rest of .industry. The
decline in the relative Importance of handicraft production was due pri,-
marily to the shift of Productiolio cotton cloth, paper, sugar, and
* The estimates and conclusions in this report represent the best
judgment of this Office as of 15 October 1961.
** Unless otherwise indicated, industrial production in this report
is measured by value added in production Value added in A sector of
industry is found by subtracting the'dott'of-materials, fuels, and
other purchases used in production from the value of its final product;
the resulting figure represents the amount of economic activity per-
formed in that particular sector of industry. Gross value, on the
other hand, which is the basis of the weights used in the official
Chinese Communist index of industrial production, refers to the value
of the-final product of-all-industrial enterprises.
XXX Rates of growth were calculated by using Chinese domestic prices -
of 1957. If US prices had been used in the calculatiOn, the resultS
would have been slightly lower:
'Following p. 2.
tt 'Industrial handicraft in Communist China refers to handicraft_
production by-full-time, self-employed indiViduaIS'hiring no more than
three workers.
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other light industrial products out of handicraft enterprises into rela-
tively modern plants. By 1959, for example, cotton cloth was no longer
produced by. handicraft units. In addition, the largest increases in
production in Communist China have occurred where the handicraft ele-
ment was either Small or nonexistent -- for instance, in finished Steel,
machine tools, electrical equipment, petroleum, and electric power.*
The declining proportion of value added in handicraft production to the
total value added by industry in 1952) 1957, and 1960 is shown in the
accompanying chart, Figure 3.
1952
1957
1960
ProNninary
0
1".1,00,7
21% 79%,
7.1 A A
18% /./ //'
,A,31
Handicraft
Nonhandicraft
13%
87%
//
10 20 30
VALUE-ADDED BY INDUSTRY (Billion 1957 yuan)
40
Figure 3. Contribution of Handicraft Industries to the Total Industrial
Production in Communist China, 1952, 1957, and 1960
35535 11.61
Because of a continuing lack of information
a precise estimate of the growth of industrial production for
19.0 is not possible. Industrial production was seriously disrupted: in
1960 by the second consecutive year of poor harvests, the sudden with-
drawal of Soviet technicians, and the accumulated problems in planning
* Coal was an exception in 1958, when much of. the increase in produc-
tion.of coal came from small pits.
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Figure 1
YEARLY PERCENTAGE CHANGES IN ESTIMATED INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
IN COMMUNIST CHINA, WITH VALUE-ADDED WEIGHTS, 1953-60
Percent
70
HEAVY INDUSTRY
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Percent
30
LIGHT INDUSTRY
20
10?
I
lerwl
Percent
50
40 ?
30
20 ?
10?
TOTAL INDUSTRY
1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959
35533 11.61
1960
relimina y
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1200
1000
800
600
400
200
INDEXES OF ESTIMATED GROWTH OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
IN COMMUNIST CHINA, BY MAJOR SECTORS,
WITH VALUE-ADDED WEIGHTS, 1952-60
19.52=100
/
/
/
..."
.???? ....'
.0"
....0"
....""*".'
/
il----
/
../
.---?
--
1952
35534 11-61
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Figure 2 50X1
Ferrous Metals
Electric Power
Metal Products and
Machinery
Chemicals
Construction Materials
Total Industry
Textiles and Clothing
Foods, Beverages, and
Tobacco
1960
Pmliminary
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and organization that were attributable mainly to the excesses of the
"leap forward" policy.*
In spite of the impressive record of industrial achievements since
1952, per capita output of basic industrial commodities remains small,
as shown in the chart, Figure 4.** Communist China, moreover, still
has a long way to go before it catches up with Japan, the USSR, and
industrialized countries of the West in terms of quality and diversity
of industrial production and mastery of modern technology.
The growth of industrial production in Communist China has not
been as great as claimed by the regime. The chart, Figure 5,** pre-
sents a comparison of the official claims of increases in the gross
value of industrial production with the estimates in this report of
increases in the gross value of industrial production for 1952-60.***
The principal causes of bias appear to have been (1) the increase in
the degree of double-counting in the official index that resulted from
the rapid changes in industrial organization after 1957, (2) the in-
clusion of products not previously counted, and (3) the pressure put
on subordinate units to report everything that could be counted under
any pretext.
Estimated indexes of industrial production in Communist China dur-
ing 1952-60 are presented in Tables 1 through 3.t Estimates of physical
production, prices, and value added per unit of commodities used to
compute the indexes are presented in Tables 4 and 5.tt The methodology
for computing the indexes is given in Appendix B.
* The term leap forward as used in this report refers to the re-
gime's policy, instituted in 1958 (and carried over into 1959 and
early 1960 in milder form), of working men and machines at a maximum
speed with only secondary concern for the quality and balanced pro-
portioning of output.
** Following p. 4.
*** It should be noted that, because of differing patterns of weights,
the index of industrial production estimated in this report on the
basis of gross value (see Table 2, Appendix A, p. 8, below) differs
from the index estimated on thebasis of value added (see Table 1,
Appendix A, p. 7, below). Table 3 (Appendix A, p. 9, below) gives
both official and estimated indexes of gross industrial production.
t Appendix Al pp. 7 through 9, below.
tt Appendix A, pp. 10 through 16, below.
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Figure OX1
PER CAPITA PRODUCTION OF CRUDE STEEL, ELECTRIC POWER, SULFURIC ACID
AND COTTON CLOTH IN THE USSR, COMMUNIST CHINA, JAPAN, AND THE US
1952 AND 1960
CRUDE STEEL
(Kilograms)
1952
1960
ELECTRIC POWER*
(Kilowatt hours)
USSR
MJapan
I-7 Communist China ri us
SULFURIC ACID
(Kilograms)
76.9
89.8
1960
35536 11-61
*Gross basis
COTTON CLOTH
(Linear meters)**
1952 ?
1960
**Except Japan, which is in square meters.
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Figure 5
COMPARISON OF OFFICIAL CLAIMS WITH THE ESTIMATES IN THIS REPORT
OF THE ANNUAL INCREASES IN THE GROSS VALUE OF INDUSTRIAL ?
PRODUCTION IN COMMUNIST CHINA, 1952-60
IND
600
500
400
300
? 200
100
PE
60
40
20
CA
1952
= 100
OFFICIAL CLAIMS
I
I
? -
ESTIMATES
IN THIS REPORT
l.CIN I
1952=
100
Official Claims
Estimates in
this Report
1952
1953
35537 11-61
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
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1959
1960
Preliminary
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APPENDIX A
STATISTICAL TABLES*
Introductory Not'e
-7\
The index in Table 1 has been constructed with value-added weights
that were derived from domestic 1957 Chinese Communist yuan prices.
The index in Table 2 has been constructed with gross-value weights that
also were based on Chinese domestic yuan prices of 1957.** The index
in Table 1 is patterned after the revised index of industrial produc-
tion of the US Federal Reserve Board.*** Table 3 compares the official
Chinese index of gross industrial production with the calculated index
of gross value shown in Table 2.
Table 4 presents estimates of the physical production of the major
industrial commodities used in constructing the indexes in Tables 1
and 2. Table 5 presents estimates of the value added per unit and the
factory-door prices of major industrial commodities. Tables 6 and 7
give the details for two sector indexes: (1) metal products and
.machinery and (2) other consumer goods.
* Tables 1 through 7 follow on pp. 7 through 20.
** Unless otherwise indicated, yuan values in this report are given
in constant 1957 yuan and may be converted to US dollars at a rate of
exchange of 2.46 yuan to US $1. This rate, which is based on the
yuan-sterling rate for telegraphic transfers, bears no relationship to
domestic price levels, nor does it necessarily reflect the value of the
yuan in terms of dollars.
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Table 1
Index of Estimated Total Industrial Production in Communist China, with Value-Added Weights811
1952-60
1957 = 100
1957 Value-Added Weights b/
Indexes
1960
Sector
Division
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Preliminary
Heavy industry
Ferrous metal s?
16.8
28
35
44
53
77
100
175
239
327
Nonferrous metals
2.3
43
52
57
66
72
100
133
169
224
Metal products and machinery
22.8
4o
57
61
62
25
100
198
277
330
Military machinery sj
4.4
75
79
62
64
93
100
194
255
227
Construction materials
6.1
32
44
55
61
82
100
137
163
178
Timber
17.6
40
63
80
75
75
100
126
147
154
Chemicals
11.7
37
45
61
65
86
100
161
206
227
Coal
9.7
48
51
62
72
85
100
176
226
244
Petroleum
4.4
30
42
52
68
80
100
157
233
285
Electric power
4.2
38
48
57 -
64
86
100
152
229
314
Total heavy industry
100.0
57.0
39
51
61
65
84
100
166
220
'259
Light industry
Textiles and clothing
39.6
69
84
91
84
110
100
124
153
146
Paper and printing
10.8
54
60
72
74
85
100
148
172
170
Food, beverages, and tobacco
26.8
69
81
92
93
95
100
116
127
124
Other consumer goods 1/
22.8
48
58
68
68
84
100
117
125
133
Total light industry
100.0
43.0
63
75
84
82
97
100
123
142
140
Total industry
100.0
49
61
71
72
90
100
147
186
208
a. For the methodology, see Appendix B.
b. Value-added weights are defined on p. 1, above.
c. Including ammunition, weapons, medium tanks, naval vessels, and aircraft.
d. Including furniture and fixtures, hardware, leather and rubber products, soap and cosmetics, pottery and earthenware, glassware and mirrors, and matches.
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Table 2
Index of Estimated Industrial Production in Communist China, with Gross-Value Weights a/
1952-60
1957 = loo
1957 Gross-Value Weights
Indexes
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
Preliminary
Sector
Division
Heavy industry
Ferrous metals
12.9
28
35
44
54
77
loo
174
241
329
Nonferrous metals
4.9
41
50
56
64
71
100
134
171
228
Metal products and machinery
31.7
40
57
61
62
95
loo
198
277
330
Military machinery c/
6.1
75
79
62
64
93
loo
194
255
227
Construction materials
6.5
23
34
47
56
76
100
140
155
164
Timber
9.8
40
63
80
75
75
loo
126
147
154
Chemicals
15.8
35
43
58
64
86
loo
160
207
230
Coal
6.5
47
50
60
71
85
loo
176
226
244
Petroleum
2.9
30
42
51
67
80
100
158
233
286
Electric power
2.9
38
48
57
64
86
loo
152
229
314
Total heavy industry
100.0
41.5
39
Si
59
63
85
loo
171
228
267
Light industry
Textiles and clothing
36.2
73
84
90
87
108
100
124
149
143
Paper and printing
5.8
55
62
73
76
86
loo
155
170
166
Food, beverages, and tobacco
37.3
71
82
96
95
95
loo
113
123
119
Other consumer goods di
20.7
48
58
68
68
84
loo
117
125
133
Total light industry
100.0
58.5
66
77
87
85
97
loo
120
136
133
Total industry
100.0
55
66
75
76
92
loo
141
174
189
a. For the methodology, see Appendix B.
b. For an explanation of the gross-value weights, see the methodology.
c. Including ammunition, weapons, medium tanks, naval vessels, and aircraft.
d. Including furniture and fixtures, hardware, leather and rubber products, soap and cosmetics, pottery and earthenware, glassware and mirrors, and matches.
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Table 3
Indexes of Gross Industrial Production in Communist China
1952-60
Period
Official Index 1/
Estimated Index b/
1952 = 100
Percent of
Previous Year
1952 =
Percent of
100 Previous Year
1952
100
loo
1953
130
130
120
120
1954
151
116
136
114
1955
160
106
138
101
1956
205
128
167
121
1957
228
111
182
109
1958
3802./
166
256
141
1959
529 2
139
316
123
1960 (preliminary)
627 .2./
119
344
109
Averages
Averages
1953-57
118
113
1958-60
140
124
1953-60
126
117
b. This estimated index is taken from Table 2, P. 8, above.
c. This official index, which is based on 1957 prices rather than on 1952 pricesj_is believed to have
been calculated by using a broader definition of industrial production than that used in the 1952-57
index.
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Table 4
Physical Production of Major Industrial Commodities in Communist China
1952-60
1960
Commodity Unit 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1996. 1959 Preliminary
Ferrous metals
Pig iron 2/*
Crude steel fj
Finished steel Ej
Iron ore 2/
Manganese ore lj
Nonferrous metals
Million metric tons 1.93t 11./ 2.23t 3.11t 3.87t 4.83t 5.94t 13.69t-1/ 20.5* ,./ 27.5t sj
Million metric tons 1.351 1.771 2.221 2.85t 4.46t 5.351 8.01 13.35t 18.45t
Million metric tons 1.11t 1.49t 1.76t 2.101 3.22t 4.3t 6.0t 8.5 12.0
Million metric tons 4.3-1 5.8t 7.21 9.6t 15.51 19.4t 59.01 71.0 90.0
Thousand metric tons 190.6t 195.0t , 172.2t 196.0t 400.0f 469.0t 534.0t 1,243.0t 1,500
Tungsten lj Thousand metric tons 15.3-1 19.0 19.0 20.0 23.2 30.0 30.0 33.0 34.0
Molybdenum k Thousand metric tons 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 3.8 3.8 4.0
Aluminum 1 Thousand metric tons 0 0 2 10 15 39 501 701 100
Copper 1 Thousand metric tons 9 13 15 15 14 14 34 55 90
Tin 1/ Thousand metric tons 14 15 16 la 19 26 31 32 32
Lead 71j Thousand metric tons 5 9 15 16 17 31 45 70 110
Zinc 1/ Thousand metric tons 5 8 10 13 15 19 29 50 90
Antimony !J Thousand metric tons 10 11 11 12 12 13 14 15 15
Mercury 1 Thousand flasks of 76 pounds 3 5 11 20 24 25 44 45 45
Fluorspar Thousand metric tons 120 125 125 125 130 130 130 130 140
Machinery
General machinery
Machine tools 2j
Textile machinery
Thousand units
13.7t 20.51 15.9t 13.7t 25.91 28.3t 30 33 38
Cotton spindles Thousand units 383t 287t 489t 3041 7841 484t 1,000t 1,3004 2,000
Cotton looms Thousand units 6.5t 9.7f 15.11 9.3t 19.3t 10 16 34 55
Agricultural machinery
Plows, two-wheeled, one- or two-
bottom, animal-drawn Thousand units 5t 201 53t 525t 1,793t N.A. N.A.
Grain combines, tractor-drawn Units 0 0 0 3f 221 1241 545t 1,2431 2,590
Threshing machines, power-operated Units 0 0 0 0 0 0 7401 2,7001 3,000
Tractors Units 0 0 0 0 0 0 957+ , 4,9001 10,000t
Drainage and irrigation pumps Thousand horsepower 60t 7ot 80t 801 90t 1501 500t 1,790* 3,000
Electrical equipment
Turbines, steam and hydraulic Thousand kilowatts 71 171 10t 691 2231 198t 800 2,150 2,150
Electric motors 2/ Thousand kilowatts 6391 918t 957t 6071 1,069t 1,455t 6,052+ 8,000 7,700
Electric generators 2/ Thousand kilowatts 301 59t 611 1081 281t 1981 2/ 800 sj 2,150 si 2,150 si
Transformers Thousand kilovolt-amperes 1,1611 1,961* 1,961t 1,926t 2,8471 3,571+ 11,600 14,850 11,550
. Footnotes for Table 4 follow on p. 14.
- 10 -
C-0-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
Declassified in Pall - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/30: CIA-RDP79R01141A602200050001-0
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/30 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002200050001-0
C-0-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
Table 4
Physical Production of Major Industrial Commodities in Communist China
1952-60
(Continued)
Commodity
1960
Unit 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 Preliminary
Machinery (Continued)
Railroad equipment
Mainline locomotives (steam) Units 20t 10t 52t 98t 184t 167t 3502 532t 700
Mainline locomotives (diesel) Units at at at at at at 2 3t o
Mainline locomotives (electric) Units . at . at ' at Ot at at at 12 0
Freight cars 3/ Thousand units 5.82 4.5t 5.4t 9.3t 6.4t 7.3f 11.0t 19.72 25
Passenger cars Units 62 50 loo 200 311t 350 450 800 800
Shipbuilding
Merchant vessels E./ Thousand gross register tons 7 11 17 22 15 15 . 31 . 45 60 .
Trucks
Medium (5-ton) Thousand units 0 0 0 0 1.6t 7.5t 15.6 1T 15
Light (2-1/2-ton) Thousand Units o o o o Negl. 2
Three-wheeled Thousand units 0 o 0 o o 0 Negl. 0.9 Negl.
Military machinery
Ammunition Thousand metric tons 30 30 22 23 24 15 10 7 7
Armaments
Weapons
Small aims 3/ Thousand units 191.2 211.5 268.5 294.0 164.8 307.5 307.5 300 275
Mortars Thousand units 1.8 3.0 4.5 4.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 2 o
Recoilless rifles Thousand units 2.7 3.4 1.0 1.4 2.4 2.4 2 2 2
Rocket launchers Thousand units 8.5 8.5 4.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.1 0 o
Artillery Units 250 250 75 225 310 310 310 200 200
Medium tanks (T-54) Uftita 0 o o o o lo loo 500
Naval vessels Thousand LSD I/ 2 3 3 2 11 10 11 10
Aircraft
Jet fighters, Fresco (MIG-17) Units 0 0 0 1 119 19(0 90
Jet fighters, Farmer (M j IG-19) Units 0 0 0 0 0 9
Piston transports, Colt (An-2) Units 0 0 01 50 100 135
Helicopter, Hound (Mi-4) Units 0 0 o 0 o 3 85
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/30: CIA-RDP79R01141A002200050001-0
Table 4
Physical Production of Major Industrial Commodities in Communist China-
1952-60
(Continued)
-Commodity
Unit
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
Preliminary
Construction materials
?
Cement E/
Million metric tons
2.92
3.9+
4.6t
4.52
6.4t
6.92
9.32
12.32
14
Window glass
Million square meters
21.3t
24.32
31.3t
33.8t
30.62
- 46.1t
52.7t
62.5
.65
Brick
Billion pieces
22
4
7
10
142
212.
30
30
30
Roof tile
Billion pieces
o.8t
1
1
2
2.72
2.72
5
5
5
Timber I/
Million cubic meters
11.22
17.532
22.21t
20.932
20.842
27.872
352
412
I 43
Chemicals
Chemical fertilizers y/
Thousand metric tons
39
53
71
85
132
159
266
408
500
Ammonium sulfate E./
Ammonium nitrate
Thousand metric tons
Thousand metric tons
1812
132
226t
38
298t
45
3242
87
4462
140
511
172
467
543
700t
vor
1,550
../
Phosphates z1
Thousand metric tons
o
o
11
15
77
120t
3442
600
850
Potassium z
Thousand metric tons
o
o
o
o
o
o
Negl.
40
100
Synthetic ammonia EE/
Thousand metric tons
38t
51
68
84
1272
1492
237t
330
365
Sulfuric acid bb
Thousand metric tons
190t
2602
3442
3751-
517+
6322
7402
1,050t
1,360
Nitric acid cc
Thousand metric tons
25
37
44
70
112
125
314
360
360
Soda ash cc
Thousand metric tons
1922
2235
309t
405t
476t
5062
640t
8002
800
Caustic soda BB/
Thousand metric tons
792
882
1152
1372
1562
1982
270t
3642
450
Chlorine Id/
Thousand metric tons
50
47
61
69
71
85
110
158
200
Calcium carbide
Thousand metric tons
12
14
17
30
33
60
87
120
145
Refined benzol
Thousand metric tons
19
23
29
36
36
44
51
58
66
Rubber tires BB/
Thousand units
4172
4882
7012
5932
7832
8732
1,500
1,800
1,800
Coal
Coal fLI
Million metric tons
66.492
69.682
83.662
98.30t
lio.36t
130.72
270.22
347.82
4252
Metallurgical coke BE/
Million metric tons
2.0t
2.5t
3.12
3.72
6.72
7.52
10.4
18.6
25
Petroleum
Crude oil
Natural
Million metric tons
0.19 '
0.30
0.41
0.48
0.64
0.85
1.46
2.68
3.3
Synthetic
Million metric tons
0.24
0.32
0.38
0.49
0.52
0.61
0.80
1.02
1.3
Subtotal
Million metric tons
0.442 hly
0.622
0.792
0.972
1.16t
1.46t
2.262
?;..21"
4.6
- 12 -
C-0-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/30 : CIA-RDP79R01141A002200050001-0
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/30: CIA-RDP79R01141A602200050001-0
Table 4
Physical Production of Major Industrial Commodities in Communist China
1952-60
(Continued)
Commodity
Unit
1960
1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 Preliminary
Petroleum (Continued)
Petroleum products 11/
Gasoline
Million metric tons
0.13
0.17
0.19
0.25
0.33
0.47
0.80
1.15
1.50
Kerosine
Million metric tons
0.05
0.07
0.09
0.11
0.14
0.19
0.23
0.35
0.42
Diesel fuels
Million metric tons
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.06
0.06 ,
0.11
0.26
0.45
0.52
Lubricating oils
Million metric tons
0.01
0.02
0:03
0.03
0.05
0.04
0.08
0.12
o.16
Residuals
Million metric tons
0.29
0.42
0.50
0.75
0.76
0.89
1.34
1.88
2.23
Subtotal
Million metric tons
2122
0.71
0.85
1.20
1.34
1.70
2.71
3.95
4.73
Electric power (gross basis) kk/
Thermal electric
Billion kilowatt-hours
6.o
7.7
8.8
9.9
13.1
14.9
23.2
35.3
48
Hydroelectric
Billion kilowatt-hours
1.3
1.5
2.2
2.4
3.5
4.4
4.3
6.2
9
Subtotal
Billion kilowatt-hours
7.3t
9.2t
11.01-
12.31
16.6t
19.31
27.51-
41.5t
5.1
Electric power (net basis)
Billion kilowatt-hours
5.8
7.4
8.8
9.8
13.3
15.4
23.4
35.3
48.4
Textiles
Cotton cloth 11/
Billion linear meters
4.2t
5.0t
5.5t
4.5t
5.9t
5.11
5.81-
7.51
6.5
Cotton yarn
Thousand metric tons
656t
745t
834t
720t
952t
844t
1,1071-
1,497t
1,400
Cotton knit goods
Thousand metric tons
55.1t
85t
102.3t
113.3t
129.11)
129.11-
200
226.8
234
Ginned cotton -
Million metric tons
1.30
1.18
1.06
1.52-
1.44
1.64
2.1
1.8
1.8
Printed and dyed cloth
Billion linear meters
1.84
2.16
2.46
2.09
2.76
2.42
2.74
3.80
3.86
Wool cloth
Million linear meters
4.23t
6.23t
7.82t
10.27t
14.27t '
18.12t
26.28t
28.41-
31.3
Wool yarn
Thousand metric tons
1.98t
3.72t
3.27f
3.74t
5.66t
7.0t
8.3f
9.0
9.9
Part-silk cloth
Million linear meters
64.76t
73.8t
78.25t
93.971
118.61
144.33t
194.84t
198
201
Raw silk Ea/
Thousand metric tons
3.55$
4.32t
4.61t
5.381
6.10$
5.1
6.5
6
6
Gunny sacks
Million units
67t
59t
591
53t
79t
85t
115
128
134
-
- 13 --
C-0-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/30: CIA-RDP79R01141A002200050001-0
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/30: CIA-RDP79R01141A002200050001-0
C-0-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
Table 4
Physical Production of Major Industrial Commodities in Communist China
1952-60
(Continued)
1960
Commodity
Unit
1952
1953
1954.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Preliminary
Paper and printing
Paper 2E/
Million metric tons
0.60t
o.67t
0.84t
o.848
1.0t
1.22t
1.63t
2.13t
2.18
Printing 22/
Books
Million units
785t
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,278t
2,387t
2,000t
1,800 ?
Periodicals
Million units
204t
220
240
270
300
315t
532t
500
480
Newspapers
Million units
1,6091
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,442t
3,912t
4,800t
4,500
Food, beverages, and tobacco
Polished rice 12/
Million metric tons
13.6
16.3
19.7
19.6
18.2
21.7
23.4
24.9
24.9
Flour
. Million metric tons
3.0t
3.39+
3.72t
4.53t
5.02t
5.038-
6.4
6.4
4.6
Meat 12/
Million metric tons
2.85
3.28
3.81
3.23
3.24
2.74
3.23
3.54
3.3
Fish 12/
Million metric tons
1.24
1.42
1.72
1.88
2.02
1.76
2.07
2.41
2.59
Edible vegetable oils mi
Million metric tons
0.98t
1.02t
1.26t
1.16t
1.05t
1.1t
1.25t
1.46t
1.5
Sugar
Million metric tons
0.4511
0.6381
0.6938
0.7178
0.8078
o.864t
0.90t
1.13t
1:3
Salt
Million metric tons
4.94t
3.57+
4.89$
7.54t
4.94t
8.28t
10.41-
11.04t
13
Canned goods
Thousand metric tons
14.4t
21.4t
28
44
54t
46.7t
60
80
loo
White wine
Thousand metric tons
230t
320
403
508
520t
7491
3688
500
550
Cigarettes
Million cases as/
2.65t
3.55t
3.73+
3.57t
3.91t
4.46t
4.758
5.5
5.5
Other consumer goods
Rubber shoes
Million pairs -
61.7t
76.4t
85.8t
97.5t
103.5t
128.91
182.4t
199t
218
Thermos bottles
Million units
8.2t
8.6t
10.2t
14.4t
16.3t
20.9t
27.6t
37
45
Fountain pens
Million units
7.78
12
20
40
45
62t
76t
130$
160
Matches .
Million crates EL/
9.1t
at
10.4t
11.2t
121-
10.4t
11.1t
12t
12.5
Soap
Thousand metric tons
117t
120
200
240
260t
242t
272t
280
280
a. Including the total production of pig iron and ferroalloys at large, medium, and "small modern" blast furnaces.
b. A dagger indicates that the information has been obtained from official Chinese Communist publications or announcements and has been accepted after careful examination of the
plausibility of the claim.
c. Including 4.16 million metric tons of "native iron."
d. Including 9.6 million metric tons of pig iron made in "small modern" blast furnaces, of which 5.9 million metric tons were usable for production of steel.
e. Of this total, approximately one-half was produced in "small modern" blast furnaces.
f. Excluding production from native furnaces.
g. Including forgings and steel castings.
C-0-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/30: CIA-RDP79R01141A002200050001-0
C-0-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
Table 4
Physical Production of Major Industrial Commodities in Communist China
1952-60 -
(Continued)
h. Gross amount of crude iron ores, in the state in which they leave the mines.
i. The metal content of the ore in Communist China is about 35 percent.
j. Tonnages of tungsten trioxide (60 percent WO3 basis).
k. Production of molybdenum (Mo) in ores and concentrates.
1. Production of refined metal.
m. Machine tools that approximate the internationally accepted classifications for metal-cutting machine tools.
n. All sizes, including alternating and direct current.
o. All sizes, alternating current only.
p. Turbogenerators and hydrogenerators only.
q. Including cars of two, four, or More axles.
r. Including oceangoing tankers, cargo and passenger ships, tugs, and self-propelled barges completed during the year but excluding miscellaneous auxiliary ships, harbor craft, and small
coastal ships
s. Including pistols, carbines, and machineguns.
t. Light ship displacement (LSD) is the weight of the ship complete and ready for service in every respect, including permanent ballast and liquids in machinery at operating levels but
excluding the crew and their effects.
u. All types of hydraulic cements used for construction.
v. Timber is wood that is not intended to be burned as fuel. This category includes such primary wood products as saw logs, pit props, railroad crossties, and pulpwood as well as such
finished wood products as sawn wood, plywood, and veneers. Data exclude Tibet.
w. Nutrient basis.
x. Production is expressed in terms of 20 percent nitrogen (N).
y. Production is expressed in terms of 18.7 percent phosphoric anhydride (P205).
z. Production is expressed in terms of 40 percent potassium oxide (1(20).
an. Tonnages of ammonia (NH3).
bb. Production expressed in terms of pure (monohydrate) sulfuric acid (100 percent B2B04).
cc. 100-percent basis.
dd. Total production of gas, including quantities later liquefied for use, shipment, or storage.
cc. Including motor vehicle tires and excluding aircraft and bicycle tires.
ff. Including bituminous and anthracite production at modern, primitive, and small pit (handicraft) mines. To convert production in terms of standard fuel equivalents, the annual
average calorific values (Kc/Kg) for Communist China for individual years are as follows:
Years Kc/Kg
1952-57 6,500.
1958-59 5,525
1960 4,875
gg. Including production of byproduct, beehive, native, and "small modern" furnaces.
to. Because of rounding, components do not add to the total shown.
ii. Including the yield of products from imported crude oil.
jj. Including fuel oil, asphalt, coke, and other residuals.
kk. Including total (gross) production at generating centers (therefore including transmission losses and station use).
11. Including machine made, handicraft, and homespun production.
Including mulberry silk only.
All types.
so. Excluding publications at the village level.
pp. Including all production that enters state commercial channels and is processed.
qq. One case contains 50,000 cigarettes.
rr. One crate contains 1,000 boxes.
- 15 -
C-0-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/30: CIA-RDP79R01141A002200050001-0
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/30: CIA-RDP79R01141A002200050001-0
C-0-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
Table 5
Estimated Value per Unit of Major Industrial Products
in Communist China
1957
Sector and Item
Unit
Current Yuan
Value Added
Factory-Door Price
Ferrous metals
Pig iron
Crude steel 2/*
Finished steel
Metric ton
Metric ton
100
150
165
300
Modern
Metric ton
315
500
Local
Metric ton
168
300
Iron ore
Metric ton
6
8
Manganese ore
Metric ton
4o
53
Nonferrous metals
Tungsten
Metric ton
5,634
' 7,042
Molybdenum
Metric ton
10,400
13,000
Aluminum
Metric ton
2,250
3,750
Copper
Metric ton
3,780
5,400
Tin
Metric ton
6,957
10,0100
Lead
Metric ton
1,508
2,320
Zinc
Metric ton
1,856
2,320
Antimony
Metric ton
1,085
1,670
Mercury
Flasks of 76 pounds
300
500
Fluorspar
Metric ton
95
? 105
Machinery
General machinery
Machine tools 12/
Unit
8,038
12,370
Textile machinery
Cotton spindles
Unit
45
90
Cotton looms
Unit
900
1,815
Agricultural machinery
Plows, two-wheeled, one- or two-
bottom, animal-drawn
Unit
24
80
Grain combines, tractor-drawn
Unit
12,000
21,000
Threshing machines, power-operated
Unit
5,000
10,000
Tractors
Unit
15,000
22,000
Drainage and irrigation pumps
Horsepower
65
130
Electrical machinery
Turbines, steam and hydraulic 2../
Kilowatt
54
90
Electric motors
Kilowatt
68
137
Electric generators
Kilowatt
66
110
Transformers
Kilovolt-amperes
38
77
* Footnotes for Table 5 follow on p. 18.
-16-
C-0-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/30: CIA-RDP79R01141A002200050001-0
C-0-N-F-I-D-E-N-T-I-A-L
Table 5
Estimated Value per Unit of Major Industrial Products
in Communist China
1957
(Continued)
' Sector and Item
Unit
Current Yuan
Value Added
Factory-Door Price
Machinery (Continued)
Railroad equipment
Mainline locomotives
Unit
120,600
201,000
Freight cars
Unit
6,453
16,132
Passenger cars
Unit
50,000
100,000
Shipbuilding
Merchant vessels
Gross register ton
1,650
5,500
Trucks
Unit
8,000
16,000
Construction materials
Cement
Metric ton
54
70
Window glass
Square meter
1.4
2.3
Brick
Piece
0.01
0.04
Roof tile
Piece
0.009
0.02
Timber
Cubic meter
80
100
Chemicals
Chemical fertilizers
Ammonium sulfate
Metric ton
47
174
Ammonium nitrate
Metric ton
41
150
Phosphates
Metric. ton
43
160
Potassium
Metric ton
75
278
Synthetic ammonia
Metric ton
130
480
Sulfuric acid
Metric ton
71
237
Nitric acid
Metric ton
256
950
Soda ash
Metric ton
74
275
Caustic soda
Metric ton
62
230
Chlorine
Metric ton
124
46o
Calcium carbide
Metric ton
202
750
Refined benzol
Metric ton
122
450
Rubber tires
Set di
144
320
Coal
Coal
Metric ton
9.5
13
Metallurgical coke
Metric ton
20
45
Petroleum
Crude oil
Natural
Metric ton
60
80
Synthetic
Metric ton
135
180
- 17 -
C-0-N-F-I-D,E-N-T-I-A-L
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Table 5
Estimated Value per Unit of Major Industrial Products
in Communist China
1957
(Continued)
Current Yuan
Sector and Item Unit Value Added Factory-Door Price
Petroleum (Continued)
Petroleum products
Gasoline
Kerosine
Diesel fuels
Metric ton
Metric ton
Metric ton
210
171
105
350
285
175
Lubricating oils
Metric ton
473
750
Residuals !/
Metric ton
88
147
Electric power
Kilowatt-hour
0.06
0.08
Textiles
Cotton cloth
Linear meter
0.22
0.73
Cotton yarn
Metric ton
993
3,075
Cotton knit goods
Metric ton
1,032
5,160
Ginned cotton
Metric ton
67
1,679
Printed and dyed cloth
Linear meter
0.07
0.87
Wool cloth
Linear meter
15.0
30.4
yarn
Metric ton
497
1,344
?Wool
Part-silk cfoth
Linear meter
2
2.6
Raw silk
Metric ton
6,584
36,375
Gunny sacks
Unit
1
2
'
Paper and printing
Paper
Metric ton
315
700
Printing
Books
Unit
0.10
0.40
Periodicals
Unit
0.04
0.17
Newspapers
Unit
0.02
0.06
Food, beverages, and tobacco
Polished rice
Metric ton
7
134
Flour
Metric ton
60
300
Meat
Metric ton
120
800
Fish
Metric ton
27
271
Edible vegetable oils
Metric ton
14
337
Sugar
Metric ton
63
235
Salt
Metric ton
20
70
Canned goods
Metric ton
516
860
White wine
Metric ton
7
375
Cigarettes
Case lj
104
349
Other consumer goods
Rubber shoes
Pair
1.2
2.7
Thermos bottles
Unit
0.54
1.8
Fountain pens
Unit
0.33
1.1
Matches
Cratere
3.6
12
Soap
Metric tons
43
216
a. This item is not used in the estimated indexes; it is included for information only.
b. Machine tools that approximate the internationally accepted classifications for metal-cutting machine tools.
c. Based on Soviet price data that were converted into Chinese yuan at an exchange rate of 1 ruble to 1 yuan.
All other price data in this table are estimated domestic Chinese prices.
d. Tire and tube.
e. Including fuel oil, asphalt, coke, and other residuals.
f. One case contains 50,000 cigarettes.
g. One crate contains 1,000 boxes.
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Table 6
Index of Estimated Production of the Metal Products and Machinery Sector in Communist China
1952-60
1957 = 100
Indexes
1957 Weights.
1960
Metal Products and Machinery Sector Group 2/ Subsector12/ 1952 1953 1954
1955
1956 1957
1958
1959
Preliminary
Metal products and repair 2/ 41 34 52 62
62
78 loo
14o
184
259
Machinery 1/
General machinery 47 52 71 65
61
134 100
137
226
333
Electrical equipment 37 35 55 56
49
81 loo
366
519
462
Railroad equipment 9 53 43 58
102
92 100
157
271
335
Shipbuilding 4 47 73 113
147
100 loo
207
300
400
Trucks (medium only) 3 o o o
o
21 100
208
228
200
Total machinery loo 59 44 61 61
62
106 loo
228
341
380
Total metal products and repairs
and machinery 100 4o 57 61
62
95 loo
198
277
330
a. Weights are value added, as explained in the second footnote on p. 1.
b. These gross-value weights are based on Chinese Communist claims,.as explained in the
methodology, Appendix B.
c. This index is based on (1) Chinese claims of the gross value of production of this subsector
of production of finished steel in 1958-60 (see Table 4, p. 10, above).
in 1952-57 and (2) on the
gross value
d. The index for each group is derived from the gross value of the commodities produced in that group.
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Table 7
Index of Estimated Production of the "Other Consumer Goods" Sector in Communist China a/
1952-60
1957? loo
Items
1957 Gross-Vallue
Weights12/
Indexes
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
Preliminary
Rubber goods
11.3
44
58
66
69
80
loo
141
154
169
Pottery and earthenware
3.4
54
72
90
97
127
loo
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
Leather, hides, and furs
14.5
60
69
67
64
loo
loo
102 c/
98 c/
98J
Hardware
24.8
33
41
63
63
78
loo
123
198
243
Glassware and mirrors
4.9
23
35
49
47
66
100
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
Matches
2.6
83
78
100
115
111
100
107
116
121
Furniture and fixtures
32.7
49
6o
68
63
75
100
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
Soap and cosmetics
5.8
79
87
go
98
loo
loo
112
116
116
Other consumer goods
100.0
48
58
68
68
84
100
117
125
133
a. For the methodology, see Appendix B.
b. Based on official Chinese claims. -Weights for 1958-60 are as follows: rubber goods, 31.1; leather,
hides, and furs, 40.o; hardware, 5.7; matches, 7.1; and soaps and cosmetics, 16.1.
C. Index based on the rate of slaughtering cattle.
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APPENDIX B
METHODOLOGY
1. Computation of the Index in Table 1*
The index of total industrial production presented in Table 1 is
essentially a quantity-relative index, weighted by value added, as
follows:
1=
>(*) ,
'57q57
)7
v57157
x 100, where
I is the index of industrial production,
q57 is the number of physical units produced in 1957,
qn is the number of physical units products. in any
other year, 1952-60, and
v57q57 is the aggregate value added in 1957.
The index of total industrial production was computed in three stages,
as follows:
a. Computation of the Sector Indexes
In the first stage the sector indexes generally were computed
by taking the physical output of 96 important industrial products
listed in Table 4,** classifying the products into the 14 sectors shown
in Table 1, and weighting each product within the sector in proportion
to the estimated value added in 1957. The two exceptions to this pro-
cedure were the "metal products and machinery" and "other consumer
goods" sectors, where physical production data were not available. In
these sectors, other methods, discussed in (4), below, were used.
(1) Estimates of Physical Production
Table 4 presents estimates of physical production of major
industrial commodities. In general, production data for ferrous
metals, construction materials, crude petroleum, electric power,
* Appendix A, p. 7, above.
** Appendix A, p. 10, above.
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textiles, paper and printing, and "other consumer goods" are based
on Chinese Communist claims that were checked against other available
Information. Production figures for machinery, timber, and coal rep-
resent estimates that in some instances are substantially different
from Chinese claims (for example, production of machine tools in
1958-60). For the most part, official production data are not avail-
able for nonferrous metals, chemicals, and food. Moreover, the Chinese
Communists do not report production of metal products, military ma-
chinery, and petroleum products. In these cases, independent estimates
of production were used. Thus the index of the estimated production
of clothing in 1952-60 Was based on the retail sales of cotton cloth.
The derivation of the index for the ferrous metals sector
may be taken as an example of the general procedure used to establish
the level of physical production. Of the products listed in Table 4,
five are in the ferrous metals sector -- pig iron, crude steel, fin-
ished steel, iron ore, and manganese ore. Official claims were an-
nounced for Production of pig iron and crude steel in each year during
1952-60. After an examination of available productive capacity, raw
materials, and labor, these claims were accepted as reasonable. In-
complete official information was provided for finished steel, iron
ore, and manganese ore, and the physical production series for these
products were filled out by a study of input-output relationships
within the Chinese Communist steel industry.
In sectors where the Chinese Communist claims for produc-
tion of a commodity or commodities were not accepted, estimates of
production of these commodities were made on the basis of other infor-
mation. For example, estimates for production of metal-cutting machine
tools in 1952-60 include only those machine tools that approximate in-
ternationally accepted classification standards. The official Chinese
claims greatly overstate production of machine tools in 1958-60 because
these data include many models that should not be classified as machine
tools. -Mese models, which were not included in the official claims
for production of machine tools in 1952-57, are primitive devices that
utilize flat-belt pulley drives instead of gear trains and, in many
instances, that have components made of wood. The estimates of pro-
duction of machine tools in 195860 that were used in this report were
based on (a) the estimated productive capacity of each of the 23 modern
machine tool plants in China during this period and on (b) information
on the progress of production of machine tools, which in turn was based
on announcements in the Chinese Dress.
The official claim Was for production of
70,000 machine tools in 1959, for example, but the estimate actually
adopted was 33,000 machine tools.
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.4
Estimates of the physical production in 1958-60 of other
industrial equipment such as general machinery, electrical equipment,
freight cars, and trucks and in 1952-60 of merchant vessels also were
based on productive capacity of plants and shipyards and the various
types of reports on progress in production noted above.
In other sectors, such as food, beverages, and tobacco,
the Chinese do not report output of some of the key commodities.
Estimates for production of polished rice and meat, for example, were
derived from data on state procurement. Thus the estimate of the
amount of rice processed by industry in China in 1952-59 was based
on (a) official Chinese claims for government procurement of grain
from the farms and (b) rice constitutes about
Production data for processed
rice, therefore, are based on the assumption that all rice moving into
state-controlled channels is processed by Chinese industry. Because
no official data are available for 1960, the amount of rice processed
in 1960 was estimated to have been at the same level as in 1959.
50 percent of the total grain procured.
Estimates of production of meat by industry were based on
data on state procurement of hogs. Production of fish was estimated
on the basis of official Chinese claims for this production, figures
that were reduced by a constant 20 percent each year to allow for
losses in production.
(2) Prices Used
The factory-door prices (inclusive of commodity taxes col-
lected at the factory) for industrial products used in the index are
shown in Table 5.* These prices are based on
newspapers, interrogation reports, official statements of the
value of homogeneous output such as coal Or electric power,
In one instance, that of steam and hydraulic tur-
bines, it was necessary to use ruble prices converted into yuan at a
rate of exchange of 1 ruble to 1 yuan..
gross
The ferrous metals sector may again be taken as an example
of the procedure used. Price information in this sector came in part
from official statements that a certain revision in the design of a
construction project resulted in the saving of a specified amount of
finished steel worth a specified amount of yuan. In the case of a
redesigned water trough for an ore dressing plant, for example, the
Chinese press reported that 12.7 metric tons** of steel worth
Appendix A, p. 16, above.
** Tonnages are given in metric tons throughout this report.
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sistent set of prices was obtained for the five products studied in
the ferrous metals sector, and the resulting set of prices was checked
out for reasonableness against US price relationships.
(3) Estimates of Value-Added Weights for Each Commodity
Most of the sector indexes shown in Table 1 were obtained
by multiplying the production figures for the specific commodities --
such as pig iron, finished steel, iron ore, and manganese ore in the
ferrous metals sector -- by the factory-door prices in 1957 for these
products to arrive at the gross value of production and then subtract-
ing the value of the specific amounts of raw materials, fuels, and
electric power estimated to be used in production of each of these
commodities. The resulting value-added weights for each commodity
also are Shown in Table 5.*
The value of the intermediate products used in production
of pig iron in 1957 -- to cite one example of a product in the ferrous
metals sector -- has been estimated as follows:
Factory-door price per ton of pig iron
Less purchases of intermediate products:
Than per Unit
165
Iron ore, 2 tons at 8 yuan per ton
16
Limestone, 0.5 ton at 2.2 yuan per ton
1
Manganese ore, 20 kilograms at
0.05 yuan per kilogram
1
Coke, 1 ton at 45 yuan.per ton
45
Electric power,. 25 kilowatt-hours
at 9.08 yuan per kilowatt-hour
2
Value added by 1 ton of pig iron
100
For four sectors and two subsectors, data did not permit
value added to be estimated for each product, and a flat percentage of
gross value was used for all products within these sectors and subsectors.
* Appendix A, p. 16, above.
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For the metal products and machinery, the military machinery, and the
chemical sectors and for the printing subsector, the value added as a
percent of gross value was obtained by analogy with Manchurian industry
in 1941. LY For ?the "other consumer goods" sector and the clothing
subsector, the percent of gross value represented by value added is the
same as the percent estimated for handicraft production as a whole.
(4) Special Problems in the Computation of Two Sector Indexes
Of the 14 sector indexes, the two most difficult were metal
products and machinery and "other consumer goods." These indexes
were difficult because of the complete lack of data on physical pro-
duction for the metal products subsector* and because of the very limited
amount of price and production data for the machinery subsector and for
the "other consumer goods" sector.
(a) Metal Products and Machinery
The index of production of the metal products and re-
pair subsector of the metal products and machinery sector (see Table 6**)
was based on (1) Chinese Communist claims for gross value of production
for 1952-57 and on (2) the estimates of production of finished steel
(see Table 4***) for 1958-60.
The machinery subsector index, on the other hand, is
based on the commodities shown in Table 4, which are classified into
five groups (see Table 6). The proportion of value added by each group
of commodities within the machinery subsector was estimated on the
basis of the labor force in each group in 1957, adjusted by the value
added per worker in each group in Dairen and Manchuria in 1941. 2./
The weights used to combine the metal products and re-
pair subsector and the machinery subsector were calculated by taking
the gross value in each subsector as a proportion of the total gross
value of production of metal products and machinery. These subsector
weights were based on official Chinese Communist claims, which were
accepted as reasonable after they were found to be roughly consistent
with data on the labor force and wages. Detailed indexes for the metal
products and machinery sector are presented in Table 6.
* The metal products subsector includes such diverse products as
boilers, structural shapes for bridges, and nuts and bolts.
** Appendix A, p. 19, above.
*** Appendix A, p. 10, above.
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(b) "Other Consumer Goods"
The index of production of the "other consumer goods"
sector for 1952-60 (see Table 7*) is based on Chinese Communist claims
for the gross value of the sector. This procedure was used to construct
the index for this period because the estimates of physical production
used as a sample for the sector (which makes up only 40 percent of the
gross value of the sector) resulted in a faster rate of growth in pro-
duction than the official index during 1952-56.
In the absence of official data for 1957-60, however,
the production figures shown in Table 4** and an index for leather and
hides based on the rate of slaughtering cattle were used to compute the
index for "other consumer goods." The resulting index was consistent
with the data on the retail sales of these commodities.
b. Computation of the Indexes for Reavy Industry and Light Industry
In the second stage the indexes for heavy industry and light
industry were computed by combining the appropriate sector indexes in
proportion to the value added in each sector.
(1) Gross Value of Production for Each Sector
The gross value of production for each sector, excluding
handicraft production, is given in the Great Decade 12/ in 1952 prices.
These figures were adjusted to make the sector classifications comparable
to those used by the US Federal Reserve Board 11/ and were then con-
verted into 1957 prices
T6 these figures were added the gross value of handicrafts
for each sector based on a detailed description of handicraft produc-
tion and for some commodities (for example,
timber and chemicals) the gross value of handicraft production was based
on a direct valuation of output.
(2) Value Added by Production for Each Sector
For those sectors where the gross value and the value added
were estimated product by product, it was assumed that the value added
for the whole sector was the same proportion of gross value as was the
case for the specific products studied.
* Appendix A, p. 20, above.
** Appedndix A, p. 10, above.
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For metal products and machinery, value added as a percent
of gross value was estimated on the basis of analogy with industry in
Dairen and Manchuria in 1941 as discussed above. Value added in the
military machinery sector was assumed to be the same percent. of gross
value as in the machinery subsector.
?.) For the "other consumer goods" sector the value added was
assumed to be the same percent of gross value as for all handicraft
industry.
(3) Weights for Each Sector
The value added, in 1957 prices, for each sector of heavy
industry totaled l2,467 million yuan, and the total value for light in-
dustry was 8,517 million yuan. The percentage of the total for each
sector within heavy and light industry is shown in Table 1.*
c. Computation of the Index for Total Industry
In the third stage the index of industrial production as a whole
was obtained by combining the heavy and light industry indexes. The
aggregate values of production in heavy and in light industry obtained
in the preceding paragraph were not used in combining the indexes, but
instead a separate estimate -- yielding a value-added weight of 57.0 per-
cent for heavy and of 43.0 percent for light industry -- was computed
in Table 8.**
2. Computation of the Index of the Gross Value of Industrial Production
in Table 2***
The difference between the value-added industrial index for Communist
China (Table 1) and the estimated index of the gross value of industrial
production (Table 2) is in the system of weighting. The weights for the
index of gross production are based on the factory-door values (inclusive
of commodity taxes coilected at the factory level), in 1957 prices, of
products sold by the industrial enterprises. The gross-value index rises
more slowly than the value-added index because, in general, smaller
weights are assigned to the fast-growing industrial commodities. Follow-
ing are the two estimated indexes of industrial production:
Year
Percent of Previous Year
Gross-Value Weights
Value-kidedWeigbts
1953
120
124
1954
114
116
1955
101
101
1956
121
125
1957
109
111
1958
141
147
1959
123
127
1960 (Preliminary)
109
112
* Appendix A, p. 7, above.
** Table 8 follows on p. 28.
xxx Appendix A, p. 8, above.
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Table 8
Aggregate Values of Heavy and Light Industry
in Communist China
1955 and 1957
Heavy industry
Net output (Chinese concept)
Plus:
Million Yuan
Value-Added
Division Weights
1952 Prices
1957 Prices
1955 el
1957
1957
1957
8,322
12,816 IV
10,893 2/
Depreciation
1,012 d/
Major repairs
519 -17
Less:
Indirect taxes
2,580 1/
9844
57.0
Light industry
Net output (Chinese concept)
10,114
12,339 L/
11,675 51
Plus:
Depreciation
292 1/
Major repairs
150 2/
Less:
Indirect taxes
4,690 f/
7,427
43.o
Total industry
17 271
100.0
a. The Chinese Communists reported net industrial output for 1955 in 1952 prices, broken down into net output of
heavy industry and of light industry, 12/ and these data were adjusted to conform with the classifications used in
this report. In addition, because the Chinese concept of the net value of industrial production excludes depreciation
and major repairs but includes indirect taxes, it was necessary to make the adjustments described in footnotes d,
e, and f.
b. Percentage increase, 1957 above 1955, derived from Table 1, Appendix A, p. 7, above.
c. Net output of heavy and light industry in 1952 prices is converted into 1957 prices on the basis of estimates
of price changes
d. Depreciation in 1957 is estimated to be 4 percent of industrial fixed assets. (The term fixed assets as used
in Communist China includes buildings, machinery and equipment, and installations that have a value of more than 200
current yuan and that have a useful life of more than 1 year.) 11/ This percentage was applied against the average
fixed assets of industry in 1957. 11/ On the basis of data contained in a Chinese Communist study of fixed assets
in industry, 19/ the above aggregate value of fixed assets was broken down into the following two divisions:
Value
(Billion Yuan
Division in 1957 Prices) Percent
Heavy industry 25.3
Light industry 7.3
77.6
22.4
Total 32.6 100.0
e. Major repair expenditures for industry and transportation in 1957 have been estimated to be 980 million yuan. 20/
Major repair expenditures for transportation in 1957 are estimated to be 311 million yuan, 21/ and major repair ex-
penditures for industry in 1957 are estimated as the difference, or 669 million yuan. Major repair expenditures in
heavy and light industry are assumed to be in the same proportion as the value of fixed assets in heavy and light
industry.
f. Total indirect taxes on industry have been estimated Indirect taxes on industry in 1957 are
allocated between taxes in heavy industry and taxes in light industry
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