MARITIME TRANSPORT OF EAST GERMANY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01141A002000080001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 58
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 4, 2013
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 1, 1961
• Content Type: REPORT

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SECRET
Economic Intelligence Report
N? 3
MARITIME TRANSPORT OF EAST GERMANY
CIA/RR ER 61-22
May 1961
CENTRAL .INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
SECRET
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SECRET
Economic Intelligence Report
MARITIME TRANSPORT OF EAST GERMANY
CIA/RR ER 61-22
WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
SECRET
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FOREWORD
A definitive analysis of the economic importance of a country's 50X1
merchant fleet must be made within the context of the total volume and
During the course of the analysis it has become apparent that there 50X1
probably is political as well as economic motivation associated with
both the rapid buildup of the East German merchant fleet and the prac-
tice established in East Germany of controlling and therefore securing
transportation for almost all seaborne exports as well as imports. A
case can be made from this analysis for the economic advantage to East
Germany of. relying almost exclusively on foreign shipping services
rather than extensively increasing the size of the fleet. Both East
Germany and the Sino-Soviet Bloc as a whole, nevertheless, are well
aware of the use of ocean fleets as instruments of penetration, of
national security, of national prestige, and even of harassment of
Western interests, and there is strong political motivation in the cur-
rent expansion of the East German fleet. The practice of controlling
and securing the transportation for the bulk of seaborne foreign trade
appears anomalous in view of the small amount of seaborne foreign trade
that can be carried by the East German fleet. This practice may have
developed, nevertheless, from the necessity for East Germany to bolster
a weak bargaining position in bilateral trade negotiations. Equally,
other considerations prompting its continuation may include enhance-
ment of the ability of East Germany to offer attractive shipping serv-
ices as an inducement in the drive to promote markets in the under-
developed areas of the Free World and the attractive commissions
earned by the freight and ship brokers of East Germany.
This report has been coordinated within CIA but not with other USIB
agencies.
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S -E-C -R-E -T
CONTENTS
Page
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . .. 1
I. East German Merchant Fleet . . . . . . . . . . 5
A. Growth and Composition . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1. 1950-59 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2. Plan for 1965 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
B. Areas of Operation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
C. Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1. 1957-60 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2. Plan for 1965 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
II. Seaborne Foreign Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
A. General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
B. Share Carried by the East German Fleet . . . . . . 14+
C. Direction of Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1. 1957-58 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2. 1960-65 .............. .... 16
III. Use of Foreign Vessels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
A. Volume of Traffic . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
B. Trade Controlled by East Germany . . . . . . . 19
1. 1959 . . . . . . 19
2. 1965 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
C. Nationality of Ships . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
1. Chartered Ships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2. Ships Calling at East German Ports . . . 211
3. Tankers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
D. Foreign Exchange Expended . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
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S-E-C-R-E-T
Appendixes
Page
Appendix A. Statistical Tables . . . . . . . ? ? ? . . . . 29
Appendix B. Methodology for Estimating Earnings and
Expenditures of Foreign Exchange in 1965
Tables
1. Regular Service of the East German Merchant Fleet,
October-December 1959 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2. East German Foreign Trade, Total and Seaborne, 1955-59,
1960 Plan, and 1965 Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
3. East German Seaborne Imports and Exports, by Geographic
Area, 1958 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
4. East German Seaborne Foreign Trade Planned for 1965
Compared with 1958, by Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
5. Vessels Added to the East German Merchant Fleet, by
Year, 1950-60 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . 31
6. Structure of the East German Merchant Fleet, 1959-60
and Estimate for 1965 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
7. Performance of the East German Merchant Fleet,
1951-59 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
8. East German Seaborne Foreign Trade by Port of Transit,
1955-59 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
9. Direction of East German Seaborne Foreign Trade, by
Country, 1957-58 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
10. East German Port Traffic, 1955-59 . ? ? . . . ? ? ? 49
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Page
11. Calls of Foreign Vessels at East German Ports,
September, November, and December 1959 . . . . ? . . . 50
Map
Direction of East German Seaborne Trade, 1958, inside back
cover
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MARITIME TRANSPORT OF EAST GERMANY*
Summary
The dependence of East Germany on seaborne trade has not been
great in recent years, because of its location in the European land
mass and the orientation of its trade toward the Sino-Soviet Bloc.**
The low cost of sea transport compared with land transport, however,
undoubtedly has been primarily responsible for the increase in sea-
borne trade from 16 percent of total foreign trade in 1955 to the
goal of 25 percent in 1960.
Considerable increases in East German seaborne trade are antici-
pated through 1965, from 4 million tonsx*x in 1955 to 12 million tons
in 1965. Seaborne trade with the USSR will increase from about 1.3
million tons in 1958 to a planned total of 6.45 million tons in 1965.
This increase in seaborne trade with the USSR will be at the expense
of the railroad transit route through Poland. Trade with overseas
areas, particularly the underdeveloped nations, also will increase but
by no means to the volume planned in seaborne trade with the USSR.
The only exception is the traffic with the Far East, which is expected
to remain at about the same volume as in 1958. Traffic with the short-
range areast of the Baltic (including the USSR) and the West European
Coast, which amounted to less than 45 percent of total seaborne trade
in 1958, will increase to almost 70 percent in 1965, and the absolute
amount will be about 3.5 times the 1958 volume. For the future, there-
fore, there will be a proportionately smaller requirement for medium
range and long-range service, although the absolute amount to be
carried on the longer hauls will increase by almost one-half.
Not only has East German seaborne trade been expanding much more
rapidly in the last few years than world trade, but the growth of the
East German merchant fleet, both actual and planned, is at a rate far
in excess of the growth of the world fleet. Although currently one
of the smallest merchant fleets in the world, the East German fleet
* The estimates and conclusions in this report represent the best
judgment of this Office as of 15 March 1961.
** Unless otherwise indicated, the term Bloc throughout this report
refers to the Sino-Soviet Bloc.
xxx Cargo tonnages are given in metric tons throughout this report.
t Areas within a range of about 1,500 nautical miles (nm). Long-
range areas are those within a range of 3,000 nm and above.
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nevertheless follows in size among Bloc countries the fleets of the
USSR, Poland, and Communist China. The East German fleet, consisting
of only one ship of 1,200 deadweight tons (DWT*) in 1950-53, expanded
to 258,000 in 1960 and is planned at more than 100 ships totaling
500,000 to 600,000 DWT in 1965. The impetus for such fleet expansion
stems not only from the increase in seaborne trade and the desire to
save the foreign exchange expended on service by foreign ships but also
from such other factors as Bloc-wide fleet expansion under the aegis
of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CEMA), a desire to re-
duce dependence on non-Bloc shipping, national pride, and the useful-
ness of the fleet as an instrument of economic penetration.
The East German fleet is used predominantly in foreign trade, but
it carried only 6 percent of the seaborne trade of East Germany in
1957, 10 percent in 1958, and 14 percent in 1959. Although expansion
of the fleet will allow an estimated 35, percent to be carried in 1965,
the growth in trade moving by sea will nevertheless increase the ab-
solute amounts to be carried by foreign ships, from about 5 million
tons in 1959 to about 7.7 million tons in 1965. East Germany controls
the transportation on a very high proportion of its seaborne trade,
about 86 percent in 1958. To move that portion of its trade in 1959
probably required, in addition to its own fleet, the use of an average
throughout the year of about 860,000 DWT of foreign ships including
liners. It is estimated that only about one-third of this need, or
about 290,000 DWT, was supplied by Soviet and Polish ships. It is
roughly estimated that there will be involved in 1965 about 1.2 mil-
lion DWT of foreign ships, about 635,000 DWT of Western ships, and
520,000 DWT of Bloc ships.
About 75 percent of the capacity of foreign ships calling at East
German ports in 1959 was supplied by Western ships. West German ships
offered more than twice as much space as any other Western flag. They
were small coasters used primarily in the Baltic and European coastal
trades. For the long hauls, East Germany chartered principally
British and Norwegian ships.
For the use of foreign ships in 1958, East Germany paid out $51.4
million, of which probably at least $39 million was for Western ships.
In 1959 it is estimated that more than $60 million was paid out, more
than $45 million for Western ships, and foreign exchange spent on
foreign ships in 1965 may be about $80 million. By 1965, however, it
* For an explanation of deadweight tonnage, see the second footnote
on p. 5, below.
** C.i.f. exports and f.o.b. imports. For an explanation, see the
first footnote on p. 14, below.
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is probable that Bloc ships will carry about 55 percent of the cargo
carried by foreign ships, but because Western ships probably will
carry the long-haul cargo earning higher rates, as much as 60 percent
of the expenditures, or $50 million, may be for Western shipping
space. In 1958 and 1959 these amounts were not offset by any net
earnings* of the East German fleet, and it is likely that this
situation will continue into 1965.
* Gross foreign exchange earned by the fleet minus foreign exchange
spent by the fleet in foreign ports.
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S-E-C-R-E-T
I. East German Merchant Fleet
A. Growth and Composition
The East German merchant fleet is the fourth largest in the
Bloc. Comparative sizes of merchant fleets in the Bloc in 1960 were
as follows 1/*:
Thousand Deadweight Tons**
USSR
4,328
Poland
841
Communist China
762
East Germany
242
Czechoslovakia
113
Other Satellites
145
Although ranking high among the merchant fleets of the 11 countries of
the Bloc, the East German merchant marine nevertheless is one of the
smallest in the world.
1. 1950-59
The East German merchant fleet began operation in 1950
with one small ship 44 years old that has since been scrapped. Sub-
stantial acquisitions of tonnage began in 1957 and have continued
through 1960, as shown in Table 5,*** which is summarized as follows:
Year
Ending
Number
of Ships
Gross
Register Tons
Deadweight Tons
1950-53
1
915
1,200
1954
3
7,644
10,500
1955
9
10,236
13,500
1956
19
14,539
18,475
1957
21
28,962
41,115
1958
31
87,486
128,643
1959
38
120,934
182,451
1960
52
184,626
257,771
** Including only ships of 1,000 gross register tons (GRT) and more.
Gross register tonnage is a measure of the size of the ship, expressed
in terms of 100 cubic feet of internal capacity per ton. Deadweight
tonnage is a measure of the carrying capacity of the ship in terms of
metric tons (the US and UK use long tons in measuring deadweight ton-
nage), derived from the difference between displacement light and dis-
placement loaded.
*** Appendix A, p. 31, below. Including ships below 1,000 GRT.
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More than 23,000 DWT were added in 1957, 87,000 DWT in 1958, almost
54,000 DWT in 1959, and 75,000 DWT in 1960. At the end of 1960 the
capacity of the East German fleet was almost 14 times its capacity at
the end of 1956, or an increase of 1,295 percent compared with an in-
crease in world fleet capacity of only 21 percent. J
Until 1958, all ships delivered from East German yards were
newly built, and the average age of the small fleet in 1957 was only
2.5 years. Although the purchase of secondhand ships in 1958-59 has
brought older ships into the fleet, the average age at the end of 1959
was still only 5.5 years. Age distribution at the end of December
1959 was as follows:
Carrying Capacity
Age Group
Number
of Ships
Deadweight Tons
Percent
Under 5 years
29
126,095
69.1
5 through 9 years
2
9,000
4.9
10 through 14 years
3
10,440
5.7
15 through 19 years
0
0
0
20 through 24 years
4
36,916
20.3
Total
38
182,451
100.0
Of the 38 ships in active service in 1959, 17 were
"coasters" -- small ships of about 500 DWT, all used in the local
coasting trade. The remaining 21 ships were oceangoing, of which 2
were tankers of 11,500 DWT each, 6 were dry cargo ships of about
3,500 to 4,500 DWT each, and 13 were dry-cargo ships in the 9,000 to
10,000 DWT class. The average size of the fleet in 1959 was 4,801 DWT
and 3,182 GRT. The world average in July 1959 was 3,449 GRT. 3/
The small coastal vessels have speeds of 9.5 to 10.0 knots;
the tankers have speeds of 13.0 to 14.0 knots; and 2 of the remaining
vessels have speeds of 10.0 and 10.5 knots, 2 have speeds of 12.7
knots, 22 have speeds ranging from 13.5 to 15.5 knots, and the 1 pas-
senger liner is a 19-knot vessel. The average speed for the fleet is
about 12 knots. The average speed of vessels of more than 1,000 GRT
is about 14 knots. The world average in 1957 of vessels of more than
1,000 GRT was 11.7 knots and probably is at present about 12 knots.
Although by world standards the East German fleet is small,
as will be the planned fleet in 1965, it is assuming importance to East
Germany in the context of the amount of East German seaborne trade that
it can and will carry and the amount of foreign exchange that it can
save.
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2. Plan for 1965
Announced plans call for an East German merchant fleet in
1965 varying in capacity from 500,000 to 600,000 DWT. The approximate
structure of this planned fleet is shown in Table 6.* There is a
strong possibility that the lower fleet plan for 1965 is based on only
those ships expected to be delivered from East German yards between
1961 and 1965. If so, provision should be made in estimates of the
size of the fleet for ships that probably will be purchased secondhand
from the West, including two or three more tankers. On this basis the
fleet may total at least 600,000 DWT in 1965.
Based on Table 6, the fleet capacities will be divided into
the following types, not including the passenger liner:
1959
1960
1965
.
Oceangoing vessels
Long-range
82
82
81
Medium-range
13
12
7
Coastal vessels
5
6
12
Accordingly, there will be proportionately more coastal ships in 1965
and proportionately fewer medium-range ships, with long-range ships
increasing in direct proportion to the total.
There has been much discussion) Icon- 50X1
cerning specialized ships, and the latest published recommendation has
been that the 1965 fleet include about 95,000 DWT of coal and ore
carriers, about 25,000 DWT of timber carriers, and an unspecified
amount of refrigerated fruit vessels. 4/ There is, however, the con-
tinuing problem in the seaborne trade of East Germany of the prepon-
derance of imports over exports.-** The volume of imports by sea in
1959 was about 1.7 times the volume of exports and is planned to be
2.5 times the volume of exports in 1965. 5/ Imports are predominantly
bulk goods and semifinished products, whereas exports consist to a
large extent of high-value, low-volume cargo such as machinery and
equipment. To serve such a trade, general-purpose freighters that can
* Appendix A, p. 41, below.
See Table 8, Appendix A, p. 43, below.
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carry both bulk and general cargo are desirable, and apparently the
preponderance of the additions now planned will be of this type. 6/
B. Areas of Operation*
Principal areas of operation of the East German merchant fleet
are between East German ports and (1) the Baltic and North Seas, (2)
the White Sea, (3) the Mediterranean and Black Seas, and (4) East Asia.
Fairly regular service is maintained on six routes. The ships engaged
on these routes may be considered in pseudoliner service, although only
sailing lists are published. The routes are listed in Table 1, which
also provides a tabulation of the number and total tonnage of ships
engaged on the routes during October-December 1959. In addition to
Regular Service of the East German Merchant Fleet a/
October-December 1959
Ships
Routes
Number
Total Deadweight Tons
Rostock-Finland
3
1,500
Rostock-Baltic USSR
1
500
Triangular service
3
1,500
Total
3,500
North Sea
Rostock-Antwerp-Rotterdam
4
2,00 0
Mediterranean
Wismar-Albania b/
2
7,575
Wismar-UAR b/
3
21,790
Total
29,365
East Asia
90,180
Grand total
25 125 , 045
a. 3
b. Including interport calls en route.
* All vessel tonnage figures are approximations because occasionally
there are substitutions among the ships normally serving the various
routes.
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the ships listed in Table 1, six small coastal ships (500 DWT each)
were under repair, were making domestic coastal runs, or were being
used as harbor vessels. Moreover, six additional ships were engaged
in tramp service but were operating in set areas, as follows: (1)
two freighters totaling 9,000 DWT in the Finland East Germany lumber
trade, (2) two freighters totaling 12,525 DWT in the Mediterranean
and Black Seas, and (3) two tankers totaling 23,000 DWT between East
Germany and the Black Sea.
Late in 1959 and early in 1960, East Germany sent the Freund-
schaft (10,020 DWT) to South America, the first East German vessel to
make this run. Calls were made at Rio de Janeiro and Santos to dis-
charge fertilizer and to load coffee. During 1960 the Freundschaft
remained on the South America run, making three trips, and it is ex-
pected that East Germany will soon expand scheduled service on this
line with additional ships. 8/ It is expected that at least sporadic
service to South America will continue in the next 2 or 3 years and
that by 1965 scheduled service may be established. East German plans
for new routes, made within the framework of CEMA, stress liner serv-
ice to both South America and West Africa, with the comment that
"these areas will soon have great significance for us." Strong em-
phasis is placed, again in cooperation with CEMA, on concluding 50-50
shipping agreements with countries that have merchant fleets or are
planning merchant fleets, particularly in underdeveloped areas.
The latest move has been to inaugurate a liner service to Burma (In
this instance without an accompanying governmental agreement), in-
cluding the probability of a rate war to break into the trade. 10/
1. 1227-60*
Absolute performance data of the East German merchant
fleet from its inception through 1959 are given in Table 7.** The
extraordinary increases in the size of the fleet in 1957, 1958, and
1959 were almost matched by increases in performance, as illustrated
by the following percentage increases:
Percent Increase Above Previous Year
1957
1958
9
Fleet capacity
123
213
42
Tons carried
115
60
65
Ton-miles*** performed
102
349
143
* Unless otherwise indicated, performance data in this section are
taken from Tables 5 and 7, Appendix A, pp. 31 and 42, respectively, below.
** Appendix A, p. 42, below.
*** All miles throughout this report are nautical miles, and ton-miles
are metric tons - nautical miles.
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The sharp increase in ton-miles performed in 1958 is a result of the
sudden increase in average length of haul, from 1,214 miles in 1957
to 3,401 miles in 1958. The 10,000-tonners acquired in 1957 and 1958
were placed in long-haul service, mainly to the Far East, making only
two to four trips a year. Consequently, relatively fewer tons were
carried but for longer distances. This situation prevailed also in
1959, when the average length of haul increased to 5,004 miles.
More than 45 percent of the increase in vessel capacity
in 1958 was added in the last quarter of the year. The bulk of the
increase in performance engendered by these ships appeared in 1959
rather than in 1958, explaining the continued rate of increase in
performance compared with a decrease in the rate of fleet increase.
The planned performance of the fleet for the first 6
months of 1959 was 569,800 tons. In fact, however, the fleet moved
only 450,000 tons, or 79.1 percent of the plan. 11/ The reason for
the failure to fulfill the plan for January-June 1959 was given as
the loss of 657 working days, but no explanation was offered for the
lost days, whether because of port delays, repairs, or weather. Simi-
larly, final performance for 1959 was only 981,000 tons compared with
the planned performance of 1,311,314 tons. 12/
For 1958 a breakdown is available showing the direction
of cargoes carried by the East German fleet:
Trade
Tons*
Percent**
East German foreign trade
Imports
263,885
44.5
Exports
227,712
38.4
Total
491,597
82.9
East German coastal trade
7,709
1.3
Trade between foreign ports
93,694
15.8
Total
593,00 0
100.0
* The total tonnage (593,000) is from Table 7, Appendix A, p. 42,
below; other tonnages are calculated from percentages given.
i3/
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In 1957 the East German fleet was reported to have carried
6 percent of the seaborne foreign trade, 14/ thus allowing the follow-
ing estimate of the distribution of performance in 1957:
Trade
Tons
Percent
East German foreign trade
313,900*
84.8
East German coastal trade
7,000
1.9
Trade between foreign ports
49,100
13.3
Total
370,000
100.0
The most notable change in area of performance between
1957 and 1958 is the amount of cargo carried between foreign ports,
which apparently rose from 13.3 percent of the total in 1957 to almost
16 percent in 1958. The tonnage almost doubled. Although this type
of cargo is an obvious source of foreign exchange earnings, it has
not been stated openly as East German policy to solicit traffic be-
tween foreign ports. The magnitude involved is possibly a result of
more ships going into the long-distance East Asia. run, where carriage
of interport cargo, particularly between other Bloc countries, would
be a matter of course rather than a matter of solicitation.
East German plans announced originally in 1957 called for
a performance in 1960 of 1.86 million tons and 8.6 billion ton-miles,
or about 90 percent more cargo than was carried in 1959. 15/ No later
plan or performance data for 1960 have since become available. Fleet
capacity, however, increased only 41 percent in 1960, and the composi-
tion of vessels in the fleet remained about the same. On the basis of
the date on which each additional ship entered operation during 1960
and the time that other ships were under repair or otherwise not in
service, it is probable that not more than 1.3 million tons were moved
in 1960.
2. Plan for 1965
No plans for 1965 have been announced beyond the recent
statement that the fleet is expected to carry 35 percent of East Ger-
man overseas trade, 16/ indicating that the fleet is expected to
carry about 4.2 million tons of foreign trade cargo. To this tonnage
should be added about 800,000 tons of coastal and foreign interport
* Six percent of the total trade of 5,232,100 tons shown in Table 8,
Appendix A, p. 43, below.
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cargo, making a total of about 5 million tons. This performance is
not unreasonable for the expected size and employment of the fleet.*
II. Seaborne Foreign Trade
A. General
The proportion of East German foreign trade that moved by sea
has fluctuated from 15.8 percent in 1955 to about 19 percent in 1956
and 1957 and back down to 15.1 and 16.2 percent, respectively, in 1958
and 1959. The plan for 1960 has consistently been announced as 25 per-
cent of total trade, as shown in Table 2,** but in that event either
seaborne trade will have been closer to 9 million tons than the 8 mil-
lion tons planned or the total trade will have decreased in 1960 from
the 1959 level. Neither eventuality is likely, and thus the share
moving by sea in 1960 will be at most 23 percent and probably not more
than 20 percent of total trade. The total foreign trade, which reached
about 35.2 million tons in 1959, may have risen to almost 39 million
tons in 1960. It is doubtful that seaborne trade was more than 7 mil-
lion tons at most, which would be about 22 percent above the 1959 level
of 5.7 million tons. Although East German seaborne trade has developed
faster than world seaborne trade -- up 34 percent in 1959 above that
in 1955 compared with an increase in world trade of only 18 per-
cent 19/ -- there are no indications to date that an additional in-
crease of almost 40 percent was achieved in East German seaborne trade
in 1960.
The plan to move 11.9 million tons by sea in 1965 may be ac-
complished, even though this represents an increase of 108 percent in
the 6-year period from 1959? Most of the additional 6.2 million tons
planned to be moved by sea by 1965 may be supplied by the increase in
seaborne trade with the USSR in the Baltic.
* This performance would result in an average of about 7.9 cargo
tons per vessel deadweight capacity with a fleet of 600,000 DWT. In
1959 the average was only 5.4+ cargo tons per vessel deadweight ton,
but the proportion of ships employed in the short-haul trades is ex-
pected to rise from 5 percent in 1959 to 12 percent in 1965. In 1959
the Polish fleet, totaling 695,000 DWT, averaged 7.1 cargo tons per
deadweight ton, 17/ with less than 9 percent of vessel tonnage nor-
mally assigned to the local coasting trades. 18/ The expected per-
formance of the East German fleet may be met, therefore, particularly
if the quality of the ships, mostly of new construction, permits the
improved performance that East Germany expects of them.
** Table 2 follows on p. 13.
xxx See C, 2, p. 16, below, and Table 4, p. 18, below.
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S-E-C -R-E-T
Table 2
East German Foreign Trade, Total and Seaborne
1955-59, 1960 Plan, and 1965 Plan
Total Trade a/
Seaborne Trade
(Thousand Metric Tons)
Year
Import
Export
Total
Thousand
Metric Tons b/
Percent
of Total 2/
1955
18,700
8,300
27,000
4,260
15.8
1956
18,900
7,200
26,100
4,90l
18.8
1957
20,100
7,300
27,400
5,232
19.1
1958
23,100
8,700
31,800
4,790 d/
15.1
1959
25,800
9,400
35,200
5,717
16.2
1960 Plan
N.A.
N.A.
(32,000) e/
8,000
25.0 e/
1965 Plan
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
11,900
N.A.
a. 22/. These are minimum figures and do not include commodities
reported in terms other than tons, except textiles, railroad roll-
ing stock, and automotive vehicles, which have been converted to
tons.
b. Data for 1955-59 are from Table 8, Appendix A, p. 43, below.
Plans for 1960-65 are from source 21/.
c. Percentages for 1955-59 are calculated on the basis of per-
formance. The percentage for 1960 is a plan figure. 22/
d. There has been no published explanation for the drop of 440,000
tons in seaborne trade in 1958. Table 8 shows that traffic through
all foreign ports dropped. Table 10, Appendix A, p. 49, below,
shows that of the East German ports, Rostock suffered a drop of
107,800 tons, possibly because of the construction work being done
in the port area, whereas Wismar handled 91,300 tons more. The de-
cline of almost 400,000 tons through Hamburg was not compensated
for by any known traffic through other ports.
e. The total trade is calculated from the statements that sea-
borne trade will be 8 million tons and 25 percent of the total.
Inasmuch as total trade reached a minimum of 35.2 million as early
as 1959, it is probable that total trade in 1960 was more than 35
million tons and that seaborne trade was no higher than 22 or 23
percent.
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East Germany is taking account of the comparative costs of
various forms of transportation and., where feasible, is tending toward
the use of ocean shipping for trade with adjacent land areas. More
than 45 percent of the seaborne trade in 1958 was with adjacent land
areas and could otherwise have moved by land. In 1965, at least 65
percent of the seaborne trade is planned to be with land-connected
countries, 54 percent with the USSR alone.
Trade with overseas areas, however, also is expected to in-
crease, particularly with underdeveloped nations. Trade with the
Middle East, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America is planned to
be increased from about 190,000 tons to more than 1.1 million tons.
B. Share Carried by the East German Fleet
Although the share of East German seaborne trade carried by
the East German fleet can be determined for 1957-59 with a high degree
of reliability, East German estimates of future performance not only
disagree from statement to statement but also are at variance with
stated intentions concerning the use of the fleet.* Independent esti-
mates have been made, therefore, of the share of the total seaborne
foreign trade carried by the East German fleet for 1959-60 and 1965,
based on announced fleet plans and trends in interport cargo. These
estimates are as follows, together with actual performance in 1957-58:
Cargo Carried
by the East German Fleet
Year
Seaborne Trade
(Thousand Tons)
Thousand Tons
Percent
of Total
1957
5,232.1
313.9
6
1958
4,790.3
491.6
10
1959
5,717.2
8oo**
14
1960
8,000 Plan
1,000**
12
1965 Plan
11,900
4,200
35
* Some announcements concerning the share to be carried by the do-
mestic fleet mean the proportion of trade at "East German disposal" --
that is, c.i.f. exports and f.o.b. imports rather than of the total
seaborne trade. Other announcements apparently mean the proportion
of trade moving in and out of East German ports only, and some in-
clude all cargo carried by the East German fleet including coastal
and foreign interport.
** Estimated.
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Insofar as planned increases in the fleet are exceeded, of course,
performance by the East German fleet in 1965 may be higher than the
above estimates.
C. Direction of Trade
1. 1957-58
Origins and destinations of East German seaborne trade
are shown in detail in Table 9.* The main geographic trading areas
in 1958 are summarized in Table 3. The heaviest concentration of
sea trade is in the short-range areas,** amounting to more than
40 percent of the total sea trade. Trade with the longest range
area, the Far East, may be second in volume, about 20 percent of the
total. Direction of trade also is illustrated on the map.
Table 3
East German Seaborne Imports and Exports
by Geographic Area a/
1958
Australia
1
Negl.
1
Subtotal
2,685
1,829
4,514
Unidentified
90 b/
186 b/
276
Total
2,775 b/
2,015 b/
4,790
Area
Import
Export
Total
Baltic and Barents Seas
953
698
1,651
North Sea and Atlantic Europe
134
243
377
Mediterranean
171
463
634
Black Sea
66o
25
685
South and Southeast Asia
9
15
24
East Asia
668
252
920
North and South America
32
104
136
Africa
57
29
86
a. From Table 9, Appendix A, p. below.
b. Estimated.
Appendix A, p. 44, below.
Baltic and Barents Seas and North Sea and Atlantic Europe.
xxx Inside back cover.
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Immediately apparent is the imbalance in the direction of
trade. Imports from the Baltic and Barents Seas areas in 1958 were
1.4 times the volume of exports.* In trade with the UK and along the
Atlantic coast, on the other hand, exports were 1.8 times the volume
of imports. In trade with the Mediterranean, exports were 2.7 times
the volume of imports, and the fact that the volume of imports from the
Black Sea was in the same order of magnitude as exports to the Medi-
terranean (a reasonably proximate sea area) would not help to supply
cargoes both ways, because exports to the Mediterranean were dry cargo
and imports from the Black Sea were mainly liquid cargoes (petroleum).
Trade with East Asia probably was 73 percent imports, imports being
about 2.6 times the volume of exports.
The result of such imbalances is that, as more vessels are
placed into routes outside the Baltic, the East German fleet must
carry a continually larger proportion of foreign interport cargo or
run light in one direction. Consequently, East Germany will continue
to rely heavily on foreign ships for carriage of East German imports
and exports.
2. 196o-65
Total East German seaborne traffic planned from 1960
through 1965 is characterized by an exceptional growth in volume of
imports 23/:
Year
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
Impor
Expor
Total
Total
Through East German Ports
5.4
2.6
8.0
6.3
6.6
2.9
9.5
7.7
7.1
3.1
10.2
8.7
7.5
3.3
10.8
9.5
7.8
3.4
11.2
10.0
8.5
3.4
11.9
10.7
It is not believed that the plan for 1960 was met. It would mean an
increase of 2.3 million tons above 1959, an increase of 2.5 million
tons in East German ports alone. Although the new port area in Rostock
was to be in operation in the second half of 1960, it was expected to
* If some of the unidentified trade should be included here, it prob-
ably would be import trade and would further aggravate the imbalance.
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handle only 700,000 tons by the end of the year, only one-third of the
additional tonnage planned.* 21/ The amounts planned for 1961, how-
ever, may be at least approached.
Sea traffic between East Germany and the USSR amounted to
a minimum of 27 percent of the total seaborne trade in 1957 and 1958,
but by 1965 East German plans call for 54 percent of seaborne trade to
be with the USSR. Direction of all seaborne trade as planned for 1965
is shown in Table 4.**
The increase in sea trade with the USSR undoubtedly is a
result of decisions to divert to the Baltic Sea route more and more of
the trade between the USSR and East Germany that would otherwise move
by rail through Poland. According to those decisions, 1 million tons
will move via the Baltic in 1959 compared with 9 million tons by rail
and in 1965, 6 million tons via the Baltic compared with 9.4 million
tons by rail. 25/ Such an increase in sea movement is possible in
view of the expansion of the East German port of Rostock, planned to
handle 6.9 million tons in 1965, 26/ and the expansion of the East
German and Soviet fleets. It is acknowledged by East Germany that
sea transportation will be considerably less expensive than rail and
that if, as is possible, the Soviet and East German fleets carry the
bulk of the cargo, it will be necessary to expend very little hard
currency to pay for Western vessels in the Soviet -.East German trade.
This growth in trade with the USSR in the Baltic, together
with-substantial increases in trade with other Baltic and European
countries, will result in a considerable shift in direction of sea-
borne trade by 1965. Traffic in the short-haul areas will account for
almost 70 percent of all seaborne trade compared with more than 40 per-
cent in 1958.
With the exception of sea trade with the USSR, the great-
est increases are planned to be with the underdeveloped areas. That
the volume of sea trade with the Far East in 1965 remains almost
identical with the volume estimated in 1958 may be explained by two
possibilities: (a) the volume estimated for trade with Communist
China in 1958, which is a maximum, is too high, and (b) the character
of trade with China will change substantially, from bulk cargoes to
high-value goods of low volume. The latter possibility is probable
in view of the recent trend. If such is the case, more of the trade
may move by rail.
* For the trend of traffic in East German ports in 1955-59, see
Table 10, Appendix A, p. !i9, below.
** Table 4 follows on p. 18.
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Table 4
East German Seaborne Foreign Trade
Planned for 1965 Compared with 1958, by Area
Plan 1965 a/
Actual 1958b/
Thousand
Metric Tons
Percent
Thousand
Metric Tons
Percent
Finland
583
4.9
340
7.1
Norway, Denmark, Iceland
559
4.7
472
9.9
Sweden, excluding ferry traffic
428
3.6
174
3.6
USSR
6,450
54.2
1,280 c/
26.7
Levant and Black Sea, including Albania
and Yugoslavia d/
1,071
9.0
729
15.2
Far East, including Oceania
893
7.5
921
19.2
Middle East, India, and Southeast Asia
393
3.3
24
0.5
Africa
369
3.1
86
1.8
South and Central America
357
3.0
81
1.7
UK and Ireland
298
2.5
136
2.8
Belgium and the Netherlands
274
2.3
175
3.7
Others
226
1.9
372 e/
7.8
Total
11,900
100.0
4,790
100.0
a. 2I
b. Unless otherwise indicated, data in these columns are from Table 9, Appendix A, p. 44, below.
c. Estimated. Perhaps low by as much as 200,000 tons.
d. Assumed to include Italy, Greece, Turkey, Syria, and Egypt (UAR) as well. (Egypt is included
in the Levant service of the East German fleet rather than the proposed Africa service.) Not in-
cluding the USSR on the Black Sea.
e. Perhaps high by about 200,000 tons. See Table 9, footnote q, Appendix A, p. 48, below.
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III. Use of Foreign Vessels
Although the share of East German seaborne trade carried by
foreign ships is decreasing, from 94 percent in 1957 to an estimated
86 percent in 1959 and a planned 65 percent in 1965, the total volume
of trade will be increasing so rapidly between 1959 and 1965 that the
volume carried by foreign ships also will increase. In both 1957 and
1959, foreign ships carried 4.9 million tons. By 1965, if plans for
total seaborne trade and trade carried by East German ships are ful-
filled, foreign ships will be carrying about 7.7 million tons of East
German seaborne imports and exports.*
B. Trade Controlled by East Germany**
1. 1959
In 1958, East Germany controlled 86 percent of the cargo
transiting East German ports. 28/ Although this percentage is high,
there are other strong indications that East Germany conducts the
greater part of its export business on c.i.f. terms and its import
business on f.o.b. terms. 29 If the same proportion applies to East
German trade transiting Hamburg and Polish ports, East Germany con-
trolled in 1959 about 4.9 million tons of the total seaborne trade of
5.7 million tons, and, therefore, East Germany was obligated to find
ships to carry the 4.9 million tons.
The comparative advantages and disadvantages to East
Germany of retaining control of its seaborne foreign trade are deter-
mined by a complex interplay of factors too numerous to be detailed
within the scope of this report. The apparent immediate results of
the control, however, can be outlined. In the case of controlled
* For total volume and volume carried by East German ships, see II,
B, p. 14, above.
** C.i.f. exports and f.o.b. imports. Under c.i.f. terms the buyer
pays the seller the cost of the transport included in the total quoted
cost of the goods. The seller, therefore, controls the means of trans-
port, hires the vessel, and pays the shipowner the freight charges for
the transport. East Germany as the seller controls the transport of
its c.i.f. exports. Under f.o.b. terms the buyer pays the shipper only
the price of the goods delivered to the port of loading. The buyer
therefore controls the transport of the goods, hires the vessel, and
pays the shipowner. East Germany as the buyer controls the transport
of its f.o.b. imports.
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imports (f.o.b.), East Germany pays the exporting country only the
price of the goods and pays the price of the sea transport separately
to the ship owners. More than 70 percent of the volume of seaborne
imports comes from the Bloc. If sea transport of that 70 percent were
included in the price of the goods (c.i.f. terms), East Germany pre-
sumably would be paying in Bloc currencies or clearing account com-
modities for the entire transaction. As it is, a considerable propor-
tion of the import cargo not only moves under f.o.b. terms but also is
carried by Western ships hired by East Germany. The great majority of
Western ships fly the flag of countries that either have no clearing
account agreements with East Germany or specifically exclude shipping
services from clearing accounts.* Furthermore, hard currency is
generally demanded for these shipping services. In the case of c.i.f.
exports, East Germany receives both the price of the goods and the
cost of sea transport from the importing country but pays out the cost
of transport to foreign shipowners. More than 80 percent of the volume
of seaborne export cargo goes to non-Bloc countries and the c.i.f.
price in some cases is paid to East Germany in transferable currency,
but probably a high proportion is handled in clearing accounts and
paid off--in commodities or soft currencies under terms of the bilateral
trade agreement.** Here again, for the transport of c.i.f. exports,
East Germany undoubtedly is paying for the greater part of the Western
shipping service in hard currency not subject to bilateral clearing
account transactions.
On the face of it, therefore, the excessive control exer-
cised by East Germany over its seaborne trade*** would seem to be a
disadvantage in the field of foreign exchange. Too little is known,
however, of the internal interplay between East German trade and
seaborne transportation to determine conclusively whether the reten-
tion of a high proportion of control is a result of inefficient manage-
ment or of the financial and political aspects of other factors out-
weighing the apparent loss of hard currency.
In any event, East German reliance on foreign vessels is
high. East German ships probably carried more than 750,000 tons,
almost all of which is believed to have been controlled trade, of the
4.9 million tons of total controlled trade. Probably 4.1 million tons
* For flags of ships serving East German trade, see the tabulation
in C, 1, p. 23, below, and Table 11, Appendix A, p. 50, below.
** For an indication of the volume of trade with such countries,
see Table 9, Appendix A, p. 44, below.
*** Poland, for example, with a fleet 4 times the size of the East
German fleet and seaborne trade only 2.5 times the volume of East
German seaborne trade, controls less than 50 percent of its seaborne
trade. 30/ Even this total is higher than the normal practice of
nonmaritime countries.
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of seaborne trade controlled by East Germany was therefore carried by
foreign ships with the transport arranged by East Germany. The break-
down by nationalities of ships is estimated to have been as follows:
Tons
Percent
Western ships
3,100,000
64
East German ships
800,000
16
Other Bloc ships
1,000,000
20
Total
4,900,000
100
To handle the approximately 3.1 million tons of cargo
shipped on Western ships, it is estimated that a minimum of 300,000
DWT of vessel capacity was needed on a daily average throughout the
year.** It is probable, however, that about 30 percent of the cargo
moved on liners. East Germany uses liner service extensively for
trade with East Asia, the Levant, and South America. Because not more
than one-fourth of the capacity of a liner would normally be used, the
total vessel tonnage of Western ships involved probably was about
570,000 DWT on the average instead of the basic need of 300,000 DWT.* *
Western tramp ships chartered or subchartered by East Germany may have
accounted for about 210,000 DWT, and liners probably accounted for the
remaining 360,000 DWT.
Available charter records include only 73 chartered
voyages of Western ships for the entire year, totaling about 640,000
DWT. 34/ These voyages averaged only about 35,000 DWT daily throughout
the year.t The discrepancy between the tramp tonnage needed, 210,000
DWT, and the tonnage recorded as chartered probably is the result of
three major factors: (a) much of the tonnage chartered by East Germany
may have been subcharters of ships shown as under charter to other Bloc
countries; (b) East Germany apparently is using the services of Sov-
fracht, the Soviet chartering agency, to a large extent, such ships ap-
pearing in the charter records under Soviet charter; and (c) it is
believed that charter transactions of small ships trading in the Baltic
Sea and along the European coast are much more numerous than the few
charter reports received covering that area.
weight ton. 32/
Estimated on the basis of about 10 cargo tons carried per dead-
t The voyages averaged about 20 days each. Average deadweight tons
per day are arrived at by multiplying 640,000 DWT by 20 days and divid-
ing by 365 days.
50X1
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The 1.0 million tons estimated to have been carried on
other Bloc ships was probably divided about 200,000 tons on Polish
ships and 800,000 on Soviet ships. More than 50,000 tons were carried
by Soviet tankers. A very high proportion of the remaining 950,000
tons of dry cargo carried by Bloc ships is believed to have moved on
Soviet and Polish liners (including Chipolbrok ships), probably 80 per-
cent, or about 760,000 tons. To move the cargo on foreign ships, it
is estimated that the following vessel tonnages were involved on the
average throughout the year:
Deadweight Tons
Involved
Capacity Needed
Western liners
360,000
90,000
Western tramps and tankers
210,000
210,000
Soviet tankers*
12,000
12,000
Soviet and Polish liners**
260,000
65,000
Soviet and Polish tramps***
19,000
19,000
861, ooo
396, 000
This estimated breakdown of capacities needed by Western versus Bloc
ships, however, is speculative until more specific information is
available.
2. 1965
It is probable that the proportion of seaborne trade under
East German control in 1965 will decline to at least 75 percent (but
not less than 70 percent) compared with 86 percent in 1958. Of the
total trade of 11.9 million tons planned for 1965, therefore, East
Germany probably will control the transportation of not more than 8.9
million tons. About 3.5 million tons of the controlled trade may be
* Soviet tankers made five trips, each trip taking about 15 days,
a total of 75 days, which is 21 percent of 365 days. The tankers
averaged 11,500 DWT with a total trip tonnage of 57,500 DWT, of which
21 percent is 12,075 DWT.
** Calculated at about 12 cargo tons per deadweight ton to arrive
at the capacity needed and multiplied by 4 to arrive at the vessel
tonnage involved. (At the most, one-fourth of the capacity of a
liner probably is used by East Germany.) Bloc liners probably
carried East German cargo for shorter average lengths of haul than
did the Western ships.
*** Calculated at 10 cargo tons per deadweight ton.
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carried by East German ships, leaving about 5.4 million tons for which
foreign ships will be needed. By 1965 it is possible that about 2.5
million tons will be moved on other Bloc ships, probably about 2 mil-
lion on Soviet ships and 500,000 on Polish ships, and only about 3
million tons on Western ships. The Western ships probably will carry
a higher proportion of long-haul cargo than Bloc ships, and an esti-
mated average of 335,000 DWT of Western vessel capacity may be used*
compared with an estimated average in 1965 of 210,000 DWT of Bloc
vessel capacity.** A very rough estimate of the vessel tonnage in-
volved, including liner service, would indicate about 635,000 DWT of
Western ships and 520,000 DWT of Bloc ships.x*m
C. Nationality of Ships
1. Chartered Ships
Charter fixtures presently recorded as East German char-
ters are fewer than expected in view of East German needs for ocean
shipping. Probably many of the ships chartered by East Germany are
actually subcharters from Sovfracht, the Soviet chartering agency, or
are charters arranged for East Germany by Sovfracht as agent for
Deutranst and are recorded as Sovfracht charters. The following break-
down of flags of vessels chartered by East Germany will therefore not
give a true picture of proportions but is presented as the extent of
information presently available 35/:
Flag
of Vessels
Number
of Voyages
Vessel
Deadweight Tons
Norwegian
17
206,000
British
8
121,000
Dutch
9
95,000
Swedish
16
45,000
West German
7
35,000
Others
16
139,000
73
641, 000
* Calculated at 9 cargo tons per deadweight ton.
Calculated at 12 cargo tons per deadweight ton.
Estimated on the basis that'30 percent of the cargo carried by
Western ships and 50 percent of the cargo carried by Bloc ships will
be moved on liners.
t Successor to Deutfracht, the East German freight forwarding
agency.
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Most of the chartered ships were of oceangoing size, the average being
about 9,000 DWT. Only the Swedish and Finnish ships averaged under
4,000 DWT. For the numerous small coastal ships used in the Baltic
and along the European Coast, charter records apparently are incom-.
plete. Coasters of the Baltic countries and of West Germany provided
the service not shown in the charter records.
2. Ships Calling at East German Ports
A more indicative picture of the nationality of ships
serving East German needs for ocean transportation may be derived from
records of ships calling at East German ports through which passed
about two-thirds of East German seaborne trade in 1959. On the other
hand, it should be remembered that the East German trade passing
through Polish ports will be served to a very large extent by Polish
ships, a service not reflected in calls at East German ports, and the
service to trade passing through Hamburg will be weighted in favor of
Western ships.
No yearly data have been published on ship calls at East
German ports. A compilation of individual ship calls during a 3-month
period in 1959, by flag of ships calling, is presented in Table 11.*
This sampling indicates that Western vessel capacity made up 75 per-
cent of the total. West German ships provided the most service, ac-
counting for 18 percent of all foreign vessel tonnage and 24 percent
of the vessel tonnage of all Western ships. Scandinavian** and
British ships accounted for 32 percent (42 percent of Western tonnage),
each providing about the same amount of service.
Of the 562 calls by Western vessels in 3 months, 16 were
oceangoing tankers, and 546 were dry cargo freighters and 'small
coastal tankers with an average size of only 845 gross register tons
(GRT).xxx Only 29 dry cargo ships were more than 3,000 GRT, provid-
ing service from Murmansk, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, China,
and South America. The other 517 small dry cargo ships and coastal
tankers were employed almost entirely in the Baltic and along the
European coast, a further indication that the charter records are in-
complete.
Western oceangoing tankers provided 25 percent of the
Western vessel tonnage calling at East German ports. In 3 months,
they included 10 trips from the Black Sea, 2 from Albania, 2 from
Venezuela, and 2 from Rotterdam (possibly transshipment cargo).
* Appendix A, p. 50, below.
Swedish, Finnish, Norwegian, and Danish.
Deadweight tonnage is generally about 1.4 times the gross register
tonnage.
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No information is available for the same period (September-
December 1959) on the service provided by Soviet and Polish ships.
Data available for the equivalent of 3 months, however, indicate that
Soviet ships offered more cargo space than West German ships, 20 per-
cent of all foreign vessel space available in a 3-month period. Esti-
mated calls of Polish ships brings Bloc vessel space up to at least
25 percent of the available foreign vessel capacity.
From the type of service offered, primarily small coastal
vessels, it is apparent that a large share of the long-distance trade
moved through foreign ports rather than East German ports. The amount
of foreign exchange paid to the UK for shipping services* indicates
that the British ships, whether liners or chartered tramps, provided
a large part of the long-range service in and out of other European
ports.
3. Tankers*
In 1958, Soviet tankers were used heavily for the oil
movement from the Black Sea, making 27 trips during the year compared
with about 10 trips by Western tankers direct to Wismar. In 1959 the
situation was reversed and only 5 trips were made by Soviet tankers
and at least 54 trips by Western tankers.*+* In adds ion, the two
East German tankers made a total of 10 trips in 1959, making a total
of about 69 trips from the Black Sea. In the first half of 1960, East
Germany purchased from Sweden two oceangoing tankers totaling about
27,000 DWT. 37/ By the end of 1960, East German tankers were capable
of making about 30 trips a year from the Black Sea, about half of the
1959 demand for tanker trips from the Black Sea. The amount of petro-
leum to be moved, however, has been increasing steadily, and it is
possible that in 1961 at least 90 trips will be necessary.tt Trips
by foreign tankers in 1961, therefore, probably will be at least 55,
more than 60 percent of the total and a. drop from 1959 of only 4 trips
by foreign tankers.
* See D, D. 26, below.
Some 142 tankers declared for Wismar, and others were fixed for
Rotterdam/Hamburg/Wismar option. Those trips on record included 27
trips by Norwegian tankers, 10 by Dutch, 7 by Greek, 6 by British, and
4 by others.
t Plus four trips from Albania.
tt It is estimated that at least 1.2 million tons will be shipped in
1961 compared with about 1 million tons in 1959? On the assumption
that East German tankers will make about 30 trips, carrying about
300,000 tons, it is estimated that the remaining 900,000 tons will re-
quire about 65 trips by Western and Soviet tankers, based on about
13,500 tons per trip. In 1959, Western tankers averaged 14,600 tons
each, and Soviet tankers 10,640 tons each.
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The amount of petroleum shipped by tanker from the USSR
and Rumania in 1959 identified as destined for East Germany was as
follows:
Thousand Tons
Western tankers
788.9
Soviet tankers
53.2
East German tankers
111.4
Total
953.5
It is probable that 30,000 to 40,000 additional tons were shipped to
West European ports, all in Western tankers for transshipment to East
Germany. These amounts are to be compared with about 400,000 tons to
Wismar direct in 1958 and possibly 200,000 tons transshipped, a total
of about 600,000 tons.
In 1963 the pipeline to East Germany may be completed, 38/
and imports from the Black Sea probably will be no more than about
750,000 tons, all of which can be handled by the planned East German
tanker fleet.
D. Foreign Exchange Expended
In 1958, East Germany paid $51.4 million* in foreign exchange
for the use of foreign vessels. At least $39 million were paid to non-
Bloc nations, and about $35 million of this amount probably were in
transferable currency.** In 1957, East Germany paid $9.8 million
(3.5 million pounds) for British shipping space alone. 41
East Germany apparently had a favorable balance from com-
modity trade in 1958 amounting to $210 million. 42/ Expenditures of
$51.4 million of sea transport alone cut that favorable balance by
24 percent. Moreover, there was an unfavorable balance with Western
nations of about $48.5 million that was almost doubled by the $39 mil-
lion in addition paid for the use of Western vessels.
* "114.2 million DM fEast German marks] in foreign exchange" converted
at 2.22 to US $1. _U/
** The $39 million is calculated on the basis of tons carried by Western
vessels -- about 75 percent of total tons carried by foreign vessels
(see III, B, 1, p. 19, above). The proportion may be higher inasmuch
as the cargo carried by Western vessels was generally in the longer
hauls. It has been stated further that 90 percent of the commercial
services rendered by Western nations is paid for in free currency. 40/
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The cost of foreign shipping in 1959 may have risen to
more than $60 million. Both the volume of cargo carried in foreign
ships and the average freight rate paid per ton increased in compari-
son with 1958.* Probably at least $45 million was paid to Western
shipowners.
If the average freight rate paid by East Germany in 1965
remains about the same as in 1959, the foreign exchange spent on sea
transport of the trade for which East Germany controls the transpor-
tation may run about $80 million gross.** Although Western ships may
move about 55 percent of the cargo, it probably will be in longer
hauls commanding higher freight rates than cargo carried by other Bloc
ships, and as much as 60 percent of the $80 million may be for the
account of Western shipowners.
No specific announcements have been made concerning
foreign exchange earned by the East German fleet. It is highly prob-
able that any earnings that may have resulted from carriage of foreign
interport cargo in 1958 were more than offset by fleet expenditures in
foreign ports. In 1965, also, there probably will be little or no net
surplus of foreign exchange earned by the fleet over foreign exchange
expended by the fleet in foreign ports. The estimated expenditure of
about $80 million on foreign ships in 1965, therefore, probably will
not be offset by any net earnings of the East German fleet.*** Never-
theless, it should be remembered that the cargo carried in East German
ships represents a saving of foreign exchange that would otherwise have
been paid out for foreign ships, and by 1965 such savings may be about
$60 million.t
* In 19-5-&-, cargo carried by foreign ships controlled by East Germany
amounted to about 3.63 million tons, and the average freight rate was
about $14 per ton (see the footnote on p. 52, below). In 1959, about
4.1 million tons moved on foreign ships (see III, B, 1, p. 19, above),
and, judging by the slight increase in world freight rates, the average
rate probably rose to about $15 per ton.
** Obtained by multiplying 5.4 million tons by $15 per ton. Although
freight rates may be higher by 1965, proportionately less general cargo
may be carried for East Germany by foreign vessels, the two circum-
stances canceling out.
*** See Methodology, Appendix B, p. 51, below.
t Obtained on the basis of 3.9 million tons of controlled trade
carried by East German ships, at about $16 per ton. See Methodology,
Appendix B, p. 51, below.
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STATISTICAL TABLES
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Table 5
Vessels Added to the East German Merchant Fleet, by Year a/*
1950-60
1960
Gross
Register Deadweight Speed Year
Units Tons Tons (Knots) Built Into Service
Total fleet, Dec 1960
52
184,626
257 7 1
Acquired, 1960
MS Volkerfreundschaft b/
12,396
4,800
19.0
1948
Feb
MS Ernst Moritz Arndt c/
6,969
10,880
10.0
1943
Feb
MS Karl Marx Stadt d/
6,500
10,200
15.0
1960
Jun
MT Schwarzhe.ide (tanker)
8,510
13,360
14.0
1947
Jun
MT Luetzkendorf (tanker)
8,510
13,360
14.o
1946
Jul
MS (Dubreka) d/ e/
4,908
2,560
15.0
1947
e/
MS (Djoliba) d/ e/
4,908
3,035
14.5
1947
MS Gera d/
6,500
10,200
15.0
1960
Dec
MS Arcturus
586
840
10.0
1960
Jan
MS Gemma
586
840
10.0
1960
Mar
MT Rositz (bunker tanker)
791
1,025
10.0
1953
May
Footnotes for Table 5 follow on p. 40.
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S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 5
Vessels Added to the East German Merchant Fleet, by Year a/
1950-60
(Continued)
Vessels Gross
Register Deadweight Speed Year
Name Units Tons Tons (Knots) Built Into Service
1960
(Continued)
MS Denebola
586
840
10.0
1960
Aug
MS Wega
586
840
10.0
1960
Oct
MS Deneb
586
840
10.0
1960
Oct
MS Atair
586
840
10.0
1960
f/
MS Markab
586
840
10.0
1960
MS Sirrah
586
840
10.0
1960
MS Aldebaran
586
840
10.0
1960
f/
MS Capella
586
840
10.0
1960
f/
Total
65,852
77,820
Disposed of, 1960
MS Anklam
432
500
9.5
1955
MS Ostseebad Wustrow
432
500
9.5
1955
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Table 5
Vessels Added to the East German Merchant Fleet, by Year a/
1950-60
(Continued)
Vessels
Gross
Name Units
Register
Tons
Deadweight
Tons
Speed
Knots
Year
Built
Into Service
1960
(Continued)
MS Sassnitz
432
500
9.5
1955 .
g/
MS Warnemuende
432
500
9.5
1955
MS Wolgast
432
500
9.5
1955
2,160
2,500
1959
Total fleet, Dec 1959 38
120,931+
182,451
Acquired, 1959
MS Steckenpferd
4,994
9,408
10.5
1936
Jan
MS Stoltera
1, 859
3,480
11+.0
1946
Mar
M$ Erfurt d/
6,502
10,020
15.5
1959
May
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S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 5
Vessels Added to the East German Merchant Fleet, by Year a/
1950-60
(Continued)
Vessels
Grosse
Name Units
Register
Tons
Deadweight
Tons
Speed
(Knots)
Year
Built
Into Service
1959
(Continued)
MS Leipzig d/
6,501
10,020
15.5
1959
Jul
MS Nordstern
586
840
10.0
1959
Nov
MS Schwerin d/
6,506
10,020
15.5
1959
Dec
MS Halle d/
6,500
10,020
15.5
1959
Dec
Total
33,E
53,808
1958._
Total fleet, Dec 1958 31
87,486
128,643
Acquired, 1958
MS Thomas Muentzer
4,993
9,408
10.5
1937
Mar
MS Heinrich Heine.d/
7,198
9,050.
14.0
1938
Apr
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S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 5
Vessels Added to the East German Merchant Fleet, by Year a/
1950-60
(Continued)
Gross
Units
Register
Tons
Deadweight
Tons
Speed
Knots
Year
Built
Into Service
1958
(Continued)
MS Theodor Koerner d/
7,198
9,050
13.5
1938
May
MS Dresden
6,507
10,020
15.5
1958
Aug
MS Berlin d
-
6,507
10,020`
15.5
1958
Sep
NIT Leuna f
(tanker)
7,949
11,500
13.0
1957
Oct
MS Kap Arkona
1,858
3,480
14.5
1946
Nov
MS Magdeburg d/-
6,507
10,020
15.5.
1958
Nov..
MT Leuna II (tanker)
7,949
11,500
13.0
1958
Dec
MS Stubbenkamner
1,858
-3,480
14.5
1948
Dec
..Total
58,524
87,528
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Table 5
Vessels Added to the East German Merchant Fleet, by Year a/
1950-60
(Continued)
1957
Gross
Register Deadweight Speed Year
Units Tons Tons (Knots) Built Into Service
Total fleet, Dec 1957
21
28,962
41 5
Acquired, 1957
SS Thaelman Pioneer
2,515
4,l00
13.0
1957
Mar
MS Frieden d/
6,507
10,020
15.5
1957
Jun
MS Freundschaft d/
6,507
10,020
15.5
1957
Dec
Total
15,529
24,14+0
Disposed of, 1957
SS Stralsund h/
1,106
1,500
10.5
195+
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 M ~ O
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Table 5
Vessels Added to the East German Merchant Fleet, by Year a/
1950-60
(Continued)
1956
Gross
Register Deadweight Speed Year
Units Tons Tons (Knots) Built Into Service
Total fleet, Dec 1956
1
14+, 539
18.2475
Acquired, 1956
MS Timmendorf
415
475
8.0
1955
i/
MS Kuhlingsborn
x+32
500
9.5
1956
Sep
MS Ahrenshoop
432
500
9.5
1956
Oct
MS Prerow
432
500
9.5
1956
Nov
MS Zingst
432
500
9.5
1956
Dec
MS Barhoeft
432
500
9.5
1956
J/
MS Graal Muritz
432
500
9.5
1956
MS Heringsdorf
432
500
9.5
1956
MS Koserow
432.
500
9.5
1956
J/
MS Peenemuende
432
500
9.5
1956
J/
x+,303
4,975
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S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 5
Vessels Added to the East German Merchant Fleet, by Year a/
1950-60
(Continued)
1955
Gross
Register Deadweight Speed Year
Units Tons Tons (Knots) Built Into Service
Total fleet, Dec 1955
10,236
13,500
Acquired, 1955
MS Wolgast
432
500
9.5
1955
Aug
MS Anklam
432
500
9.5
1955
k/
MS Greifswald
432
500
9.5.
1955
Sep
MS Ostseebad Wustrow
432
500
9.5
1955
Nov
MS Sassnitz
432
500
9.5
1955
k/
MS Warnemuende
432
500
9.5
1955
2,592 3,000
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 tr
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Table 5
Vessels Added to the East German Merchant Fleet, by Year a/
1950-60
(Continued)
1954
Gross
Register Deadweight Speed Year
Units Tons Tons (Knots) Built Into Service
Total fleet, Dec 1954.
644 .
10,500
Acquired, 1954
SS Rostock
3,269
4,500
12.7
1953
Oct
SS Wismar
3,269
.4,500
12.7
1953
Nov
SS Stralsund
1,106
1,500
10.5
1954
Total
7,644
10,500
-Disposed of, 1954
SS Vorwaerts l/
915
- 1,200
1906_
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Table 5
Vessels Added to the East German Merchant Fleet, by Year
1950-60
(Continued)
Vessels Gross
Register Deadweight Speed Year
Name Units Tons Tons (Knots) Built Into Service
1950-53
Total fleet, Dec 1950-53 1 2ji 1,200
Acquired, 1950
SS Vorwaerts 915 1,200
1906
a. The ship data are from Lloyd's and the East German press or are estimated on the basis of the
type of ship. Year of acquisition is the date of delivery to the operating company or the date
that the vessel began active service, whichever is earlier or known.
b. Passenger cruise ship, with refrigerator facilities as well.
c. Salvage completed 1960.
d. Refrigerator facilities.
e. These two ships were purchased from a French owner and have not yet been given new East German
names. Purchased in June, they have been undergoing conversion in Antwerp. They are both refriger-
ated fruit ships.
f. Probably commissioned in the third quarter of 1960.
g. Sold to the USSR. Two ships may have been transferred late in 1959 and the other three early in
1960.
h. Sank in February 1957-
i. Probably went into service in the first quarter of 1956. 43/
J . Probably went into service late in 1956. First sighted in the Baltic early in 1957. 1 /
k. Placed in service in the third quarter of-1955. 45
1. Turned over to the Young Pioneers as a "culture ship" early in 1955-
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 ? ? b
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Table 6
Structure of the East German Merchant Fleet a/
1959-60 and Estimate for 1965
1959
1960
Type of Ship
Number
of Ships
Thousand
Deadweight Tons
Number
of Ships
Thousand
Deadweight Tons
Tankers
2
23.0
5
50.7
Passenger ships
0
0
1
4.8
Dry cargo freighters
13,000 DWT
0
0
0
0
9,000 to 11,000 DWT
13
127.2
16
158.5
7,000 DWT
0
0
0
0
2,500 to 5,000 DWT
6
23.5
8
29.1
1,600 to 2,100 DWT
0
0
0
0
500 to 900 DWT
17
8.8
22
14.7
Total dry cargo
36
159.5
46
202.3
Grand total
38
182.5
52
257.8 e/
Estimate for 1965
Number Thousand
of Ships Deadweight Tons
3 84-3.2/
1 4.8
2 26.0
16 160.3 d/
22 154.0
8 29.1
18 37.8
36 24.5
102 431.
110 520.8 e/
a. L7/. Acquisition, by type of ship, between 1960 and 1965 apparently will be only ships built in East German yards. The most
recent plans give a total fleet capacity of 600,000 DWT but do not give a breakdown by type. The additional 70,000 DWT probably will
be secondhand Western ships, but into what category in this table they would fall is not known.
b. Estimated for 1965 on the basis of announced plans compared with actual developments in 1958-60.
c. Various reports have ranged from one tanker in 1965 to an unknown number totaling 200,000 DWT by 1962. The estimate herein is
based on sources given in footnote a, above. The final acquisition may be about 100,000 DWT of tanker capacity by 1965.
d. Provides for scrapping of four vessels totaling 36,500 DWT.
e. Not including two railroad ferries, one to have been delivered in 1960 and one in 1961.
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Table 7
Performance of the East German Merchant Fleet a/
1951-59
Year
Thousand
Metric Tons
Million
Nautical Ton-Miles
Average
Length of Haul
(Nautical Miles)
1951
9
Negl.
N.A.
1952
30
Negl.
N.A.
1953
50
18
360
1954
31
25
806
1955
133
259
1,947
1956
172
222
1,291
1957
370
449
1,214
1958
593
2,017
3,401
1959
981
4,909
5,004
a. . There was no fleet before 1951.
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S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 8
East German Seaborne Foreign Trade
by Port of Transit
1955-59
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
East German ports a/
2,222.1
2,544.9
3,149.7
3,133.3
3,702.5
Hamburg c/
1.489.0
1,84.6.0
1,392.0
993.0
1,346.0 d/
Polish ports e/
1+48.8
360.0
570.4
564.0
568.7
Others f/
100.0
150.0
120.0
100.0
100.0
Total
4,259. 9
4,900.9
5,232.1
4,790.3
5,717.2
East German ports
873.5
1,288.9
1,980.1
1,777.9
2,314.7
Hamburg
558.o
1,153.0
899.0
535.0
824.4
Polish ports g/
N.A.
N.A.
385.0 h/
378.0
382.2
1,431.5
2,441.9
3,264.1
2,690.9
3,521.3
East German ports
1,348.6
1,256.0
1,169.6
1,355.4
1,387.8
Hamburg
931.0
693.0
493.0
458.0
521.6
Polish ports $/
N.A.
N.A.
185.4 h/
186.0
186.5
2,279.6
1,949.0
1,848.0
1,999.4
2,095.9
a. 49/. These figures do not include approximately 125,000 tons annually
of transshipment cargo.
b.
ton
total port traffic of 3,886,000
figure includes the lighter
(barge) traffic from Soviet Baltic ports, which in 1956 moved by ship, and
ferry traffic from Denmark and Sweden.
c. 51/
d. 52
50X1
50X1
f. Estimated on the basis of known shipments through Belgian and Dutch
ports of 77,000 tons in 1956 and 58,000 tons in 1957. 56/
g- 57/
h. Estimated on the basis of the division between imports and exports in
1958.
- 43 -
. 50/ It is possible that the
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S-E- C-R-E- T
Table 9
Direction of East German Seaborne Foreign Trade, by Country a/*
1957-58
1957
1958
Countries of Origin and Destination
Import
Export
Total
Import
Export
Total
Grand total
3,349 b/
1,883 b/
5,232
2,775 b/
2,015 b/
4,790
Baltic and Barents Seas
1,270
695
1,965
953
1,651
Finland c/
230
195
425
210
130
340
Norway
125
63
188
101
46
147
Sweden c/
100
145
245
32
142
174
Poland _d/
0
2
2
0
0
0
Denmark c/
15
175
190
10
290
300
USSR e/
800
115
915
600
90
690
North Sea and Atlantic Europe
113
187
300
134
243
UK (minimum value)
1
70
71
1
135
136
West Germany f/
15
15
30
15
15
30
France g/
10
0
10
10
0
10
Netherlands _h/
41
69
110
50
70
120
Belgium-Luxembourg J
37
14
51
40
15
55
Iceland
Portugal
9 .1/
./
28
l1
!/
21
* Footnotes for Table 9 follow on p. 48.
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Table 9
Direction of East German Seaborne Foreign Trade, by Country a
1957-58
(Continued)
1957
1958
Countries of Origin and Destination
Import
Export
Total
Import
Export
Total
Mediterranean
174
278
452
1Ll
463
634
Italy c/
0
35
35
0
15
15
Greece c/
6
3
9
5
20
2
5
Yugoslavia c/
75
20
95
70
210
280
Lebanon
2
2
4
~
V
Syria
7
5
12
1
J/
Turkey
14
16
30
15
19
34
Egypt
22
169
191
35
174
209
Albania k/
45
25
70
45
25
70
Sudan
3
3
6
V
J/
j/
Black Sea
555
14
569
66o
25
685
Bulgaria k/
25
2
27
25
5
30
Rumania k7
40
2
42
6o
5
65
USSR hl
490
10
500
575
15
590
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 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/04: CIA-RDP79RO1141AO02000080001-9
Table 9
Direction of East German Seaborne Foreign Trade, by Country a/
1957-58
(Continued)
X57
1958
Countries of Origin and Destination
Import
Export
Total
Import
Export
Total
South and Southeast Asia
26
6
32
9
15
.24
India
25
4
29
9
8
17
Ceylon
0
2
2
0
3
3
Malaya
1
J
1
J
4
4
East Asia
734
287
1,021
668
252
920
Japan
1/
51
51
1
20
21
Communist China m/
700
200
goo
600
200
8oo
North Korea n
18
22
4o
18
15
33
North Vietnam n
12
11
23
45
12
57
Mongolia n
4
3
7
4
5
9
21
21
100
121
32
104
16
US
1/
57
57
1/
55
55
Cuba
7
1/
7
10 m/
1/
10
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Table 9
Direction of East German Seaborne Foreign Trade, by Country a/
1957-58
(Continued)
1957
1958
Countries of Origin and Destination
Import
Export
Total
Import
Export
Total
North and South America J
(Continued)
Argentina rJ
2
1
3
5
15
20
Brazil P/
10
25
35
15
17
32
Uruguay J
2
17
19
2
17
19
Africa
4
54
58
a
29
86
Morocco
X
55
55
Nigeria
3
47
1
27
8
Union of South Africa
11
.11
1
2
3
Australia
1
3
4
1
Total identified or estimated
2,898
1,624
4,522
2,685
1,829
4,514
Unidentified /
451
259
710
90
186
276
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S-E-C-R-E T
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 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/06/04: CIA-RDP79RO1141AO02000080001-9
Table 9
Direction of East German Seaborne Foreign Trade, by Country a
1957-58
(Continued)
s im a on the basis of the ratio of known imports to known exports in Table 8, p. 41, above.
c. Estimated on the basis of bulk commodities that would normally move by sea. This trade does not
include that with Denmark and Sweden moving by ferry.
d.
e. Estimated on the basis of comparison between total traffic in East German ports and traffic
through the Kiel Canal. 60/
f. Estimates for 1957 5 are based on the data for 1956. 61
g. Estimates for 1957-58 are based on the data for 1956. 62/
h. Estimates for 1958 are based on the data for 1957. 6
i. 64+
J. Less than reporting unit or none reported.
k. Estimated on the basis of weekly reports in the East German nress concerning ship arrivals in
East German ports
1. Pakistan, Burma, Indonesia., and Thailand report no trade or less than 500 tons.
m. Estimated on the basis of total identified imports of agricultural products, estimated value per
ton of the remainder of the imports, and the statement that the volume of imports by sea exceeded
the volume of exports by 300 percent. 66
n. Estimated on the basis of the value of trade and an average cost per ton.
o. Small, unreported amounts moved with other South American countries and Canada, mostly imports.
p. Estimated on the basis of East German trade figures, L7/ as it is possible that the reporting
country did not record all trade moving or recorded some under West Germany. Estimates are
supported by scattered ship reports.
q. The remainder of 276,000 tons in 1958 may be small lots with numerous unlisted countries. The
much larger unassigned quantity in 1957, 710,000 tons, however, may indicate that sizable amounts
should be assigned to the areas that have had to be estimated on piecemeal data, the Soviet Baltic
and the Black Sea. It is unlikely that sea trade with Communist China is any greater than the
estimates given.
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S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 10
East German Port Traffic a/
1955-59
Import
Export
504.8
198.7
281.4
674.4
87.3
475.5
873.5
1,348.6
Sea-to-sea transit
0
0
63.0
63.0
Land transit
0
13.7
43.1
56.8
Total
703.5
969.5
668.9
2,341.9
1956
Import
639.9
526.4
122.6
1,288.9
Export
160.8
709.7
385.5
1,256.0
Sea-to-sea transit
0
0
95.6
95.6
Land transit
0
10.0
0
10.0
800.7
1,246.1
603.7
2,650.5
Import
830.4
914.3
235.4
1,980.1
Export
178.5
686.2
304.9
1,169.6
Sea-to-sea transit
0
0
127.6
127.6
Land transit
0
4.2
0
4.2
Total
1,008.9
1,604.7
667.9
3,281.5
1958
Import
Export
Sea-to-sea transit
Land transit
711.4
189.7
0
0
879.0
813.9
0
3.1
187.5
351.8
126.5
0
1,777.9
1,355.4
126.5
3.1
Total
09 1.1
1,696.0
665.8
23, 62.9
Import
799.6
1,234.4
280.7
2,314.7
Export
173.2
902.0
312.6
1,387.8
Sea-to-sea transit
0
0
105.6
105.6
Land transit
0
1.8
0
1.8
972.8
2,138.2
698.9
3 8, 09.9
a -668
- 49 -
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S-E-C-R-E-T
Calls of Foreign Vessels at East German Ports
September, November, and December 1959
Total Vessel Calls
Dry Cargo Vessels and Coastal Tankers
Oceangoing Tankers
Number
GRT J
Average Size
(GRT)
Number
GRT
Number
GRT
Average Size
(GRT)
West German
200
147,092
735
1
9,627
199
137,465
691
Finnish
52
69,246
1,332
0
0
52
69,246
1,332
Swedish
81
59,585
736
1
8,087
80
51,498
644
Dutch
76
57,865
761
2
18,848
74
39,017
527
Norwegian
31
54,230
1,749
3
30,030
28
24,200
864
British
5
41,634
8,327
It
41,044
1
590
590
Egyptian
9
41,629
4,625
0
0
9
41,629
4,625
Danish
85
36,935
435
0
0
85
36,935
435
Greek
3
35,597
11,866
3
35,597
0
0
0
Turkish
4
25,397
6,349
0
0
4
25,397
6,349
Panamanian
4
18,934
4,734
1
6,144
3
12,790
4,263
Italian
3
13,721
4,574
1
6,121
2
7,600
3,800
Icelandic
8
13,574
1,697
0
0
8
13,574
1,697
Liberian
1
1,260
1,260
0
0
1
1,260
1,260
Total
562
616,699
1,097
16
155,498
546
461,201
845
Soviet J
54
163,974
3,037
1
8,992
53
154,982
2,924
Polish J
17
40,500
2,382
0
0
17
40,500
2,382
821,173
1,297
17
164,490
616
656,683
1,066
a. 9
b. Gross register tons.
c. Records are unavailable for the same period as that used for the Western vessels. Scattered weekly reporting in the East German press, however, provided
coverage for 13 separate weeks, the equivalent of 3 months.
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S-E-C-R-E-T
APPENDIX B
METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING EARNINGS AND EXPENDITURES
OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE IN 1965
The East German merchant fleet will earn foreign exchange mainly
by carrying f.o.b. exports and cargo between foreign ports. In 1965
it is estimated that the East German fleet may move about 5.0 million
tons, of which 4.2 million tons may be foreign trade cargo, 750,000
tons cargo between foreign ports, and about 50,000 tons domestic
coastal cargo. It is assumed that East German ships will carry more
bulk cargo inbound, consequently with less broken stow and free space
inbound than outbound, and that less interport cargo will be carried
on the inbound leg than on the outbound.
It is further assumed that about 75 percent of total seaborne
trade will be under East German control compared with 86 percent in
1958. The decrease is based on the larger proportion of trade with
the USSR to which exports will probably be on f.o.b. terms and con-
trolled by the USSR. The volume of trade under East German control
would then be about 8.9 million tons, probably broken down to 7.2 mil-
lion tons of f.o.b. imports (85 percent of imports) and 1.7 million tons
of c.i.f. exports (50 percent of exports). The breakdown of cargo
carried by East German ships compared with total East German seaborne
trade in 1965 may be about as follows:
F.o.b.
C.i.f.
Total
Foreign interport
Outbound
Exports
F.o.b.
C.i.f.
Total
Foreign interport
Seaborne
Trade
Cargo Carried
by the
East German Fleet
7,200
2,200
1,300
0
8,500
0
1,700
300
1,700
1,700
3,400
2,000
0
500
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It becomes apparent that foreign exchange may be earned only on
about 1.05 million tons carried by the East German fleet, 300,000 tons
of f.o.b. export cargo and 750,000 tons of foreign interport cargo.
At an estimated average freight rate of about $16,* earnings of foreign
exchange may be about $17 million. Against the earnings must be debited
the expenditures of foreign exchange paid out by the fleet for services
in foreign ports. In 1958, Poland had about 500,000 DWT of vessels
under Polish control and paid out about $15.4 million for foreign port
services. 72 In 1965, East German plans are based on a fleet of about
600,000 DWT, and expenses should be a minimum of $18 million and prob-
ably more than $20 million. The gross earnings of the fleet may there-
fore be wiped out by the expenditures of the fleet.
If East Germany modifies its policy of shipping exports on c.i.f.
terms to even less than 50 percent in 1965 compared with a probable 70
percent in 1958, the East German fleet will carry more f.o.b. exports
and earn more foreign exchange. This situation is not presently con-
sidered likely, however, inasmuch as East Germany might earn more ex-
change by shipping c.i.f., particularly to Western nations, to the
extent that those exports could be carried in its own bottoms -- that
is, the consignees would be paying foreign exchange to East Germany for
the transport cost included in the price of the goods and East Germany
would be paying out foreign exchange only for the expenses of the fleet
in foreign ports.
In 195F, East Germany paid out $51.4 million for foreign ships
(see III, D, p. 26, above). The ships involved apparently carried
3.63 million tons, derived as follows: trade for which East Germany
controlled the transportation was about 86 percent of total seaborne
trade (see III, B, p. 19, above), or about 4.12 million tons. East
German ships carried 489,000 tons, 71 leaving 3.63 million tons
carried by foreign ships. The average freight rate was therefore about
$14 per ton. In 1965, East German vessels may be carrying a higher
proportion of general cargo than foreign vessels did in 1958. Inasmuch
as earnings will be mostly in the outbound service and more general
cargo moves outbound, as well as the fact that world freight rates prob-
ably will be higher in 1965, the average rate can be assumed to be higher
than in 1958.
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