LABOR SUPPLY AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE USSR 1950-65

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• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 10, 2013
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 1, 1960
• Content Type: REPORT

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N? 114
Economic Intelligence Report
LABOR SUPPLY AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE USSR
1950-65
CIA/RR ER 60-25
October 1960
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
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NOTICE
This report has been loaned to the recipient '19E
the Central Intelligence Agency. When it har,
served its purpose it should be destroyed fo:
returned to the:
CIA Librarian
Central intelligence Agency
Washington 25, D. C.
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Economic Intelligence Report
LABOR SUPPLY AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE USSR
1950-65
CIA/RR ER 60-25
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
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STAT
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FOREWORD
This report presents a consistent set of summary statistics on
Soviet manpower using concepts that conform to Soviet statistical
practice but that also allow the use of Western techniques of analysis
and projection. The report also discusses briefly the major develop-
ments during 1950-59 that have affected the labor supply and its uti-
lization, primarily as background for an assessment of probable trends
during 1960-65.
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CONTENTS
Summary
I. Trends in Labor Supply and Employment, 1950-59 .
A. Population and Labor Supply
B. Total Labor Force and Civilian Employment
C. Structure of Civilian Employment
Page
1
5
5
9
12
1. State Labor Force
12
2. Agricultural Employment
14
3. Industrial Employment
15
Outlook for Labor Supply and Pmployment, 1960-65
?
?
15
A. Population and Labor Supply
15
B. Total Labor Force and Civilian Employment
19
C. Structure of Civilian Employment
21
1. State Labor Force
21
2. Agricultural Employment
23
3. Industrial Employment
23
Appendixes
Appendix A. Methodology 25
Appendix B. Source References 39
Tables
1. Population and Labor Supply in the USSR, 1950, 1953,
and 1955-59 6
2. School Enrollment of the Population 14 Years of Age and
Older in the USSR, 1950, 1953, and 1955-59 8
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Page
3. Employment Status of the Population 14 Years of Age
and Older in the USSR, 1950, 1953, and 1955-59 . . . 10
if. Civilian Employment in the USSR, by Class of Worker and
Branch of the Economy, 1950, 1953, and 1955-59 . . . . 13
5. Comparisons of Planned and Actual Changes in the State
Labor Force of the USSR, 1950-59 14
6. Population and Labor Supply in the USSR, 1959,65 . 16
7. Projections of School Enrollment of the Population
14 Years of Age and Older in the USSR, 1959-65 . ? ? 18
8. Projections of the Employment Status of the Population
14 Years of Age and Older in the USSR, 1959-65 . . . . 20
9. Projections of Civilian Employment in the USSR, by
Class of Worker and Branch of the Economy, 1959-65 . . 22
10. Total Admissions, Graduations, and Enrollment in
Universities and Vnes in the USSR, 1955-65 29
11. Distribution of Employment on Collective Farms in the
USSR, by Broad Age Groups and by Sex, 1950, 1953,
1955-59
32
12. Distribution of the Population Employed in the National
Economy of the USSR, by Branch of Material Production
and by Nonproductive Branches, 1950 and 1955-58 . . . 33
Charts
Figure 1. USSR: Population and Labor Force, 1950-59
and Projected 1960-65 following page
Figure 2. USSR: Population and Labor Force, 1950 and
1959
Figure 3. USSR: Population and Labor Force, 1959 and
Projected 1965
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LABOR SUPPLY AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE USSR
1950-65
Summary
During the past several years the USSR has released a considerable
amount of statistical information, including some of the results from
the 1959 census, which makes it possible to estimate trends in labor
supply and employment with greater accuracy than has been possible
heretofore.* In particular, the new data clarify the relationship
between the year-to-year changes in the adult population, in school
enrollment, and in civilian employment.
During 1950-55 the population 14 years of age and older in the
USSR increased by 2.0 million to 2.5 million annually, but total
civilian employment increased by only about 1 million annually, as
shown on the chart, Figure 1.** During these years, enrollment in
high schools and colleges increased rapidly, as the USSR began to
implement the announced intention to provide universal high school
(10-year) education for all youths. In 1955, 21.5 percent of the
population in the age group 14 through 24 was enrolled in full-time
day schools and colleges, compared with 10 percent in 1950.
During 1956-59, however, annual increments to the adult popula-
tion declined sharply -- from 2.0 million in 1956 to 0.8 million in
1959 -- as a result of the low birth rates during World War II.
Total civilian employment increased 3.3 million in 1956 and 1.7 mil-
lion to 1.8 million annually in 1957-59, as shown in Figure 1. These
* Definitions of the terms used in this report are as follows:
labor supply includes all persons 14 years of age and older not en-
rolled in full-time day schools; labor force includes the civilian
employed, as defined below, and the armed forces and excludes unem-
ployed, armed security forces, and domestic servants, as well as em-
ployment in private activities not registered with authorities --
categories for which reliable estimates cannot be obtained from open
Soviet sources; civilian employment includes persons 14 years of age
and older employed in the civilian economy. It includes persons
employed by the state (workers and employees), collective farmers,
members of artisans cooperatives, self-employed, and unpaid family
workers in agriculture. A detailed description of the assumptions
and methodology used in estimating and projecting the labor supply
and the labor force during 1950-65 is given in Appendix A.
** Following p. 4.
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additions to civilian employment, which were so considerably in excess
of the additions to the adult population, resulted from a sharp cut-
back in the proportion of young people enrolled in day schools and
colleges and from reductions in the armed forces.
Day school enrollment in high schools and colleges dropped from
9.2 million in 1955 to 5.7 million in 1959, reflecting both a decrease
in the number of persons of high school and college age and a decline
in the proportion enrolled from 21.5 percent to 14.4 percent. This
decline, which was concentrated in the high schools, was accelerated
in 1958 and 1959 by the major reorganization of education announced in
1958. Several million additional teenagers became available for jobs
as a result of the cutback in school enrollment, and tightened con-
trols over the placement of school graduates helped to insure their
employment.
In 1955 the USSR also began a series of cuts in its armed forces,
thus providing a little more than 2 million men for the civilian labor
force during 1955-59.
Total civilian employment increased from 89.6 million to 104.2 mil-
lion during 1950-59, as shown in Figure 1. Plans for the state labor
force (workers and employees) were regularly exceeded, increasing its
share of the total from 44 percent to 54 percent. The share of agri-
cultural employment declined from 57 percent to 49 percent, and the
share of industrial employment increased from 20 percent to 24 percent.
During 1960-65, annual increments to the adult population will in-
crease rapidly -- from 0.9 million in 1960 to 2.8 million in 1965.
Civilian employment is expected, nevertheless, to increase by fairly
constant increments during the period. Announced Soviet plans indi-
cate clearly that the tools used so effectively to manipulate the
labor supply during 1955-59 will continue to be used to insure an
adequate labor supply during the years when the additions to the
adult population will still be relatively small. The reorganization
of education will hold down the proportion enrolled in day schools
during these years. More than one-half of the total planned increase
in high school and college enrollment is to take place in the night
schools and correspondence courses. The reorganization also will
give the state much better control over the allocation of elementary
school (eighth grade) graduates between schools and jobs, thus pro-
viding.more flexibility in meeting the changing needs for labor.
Soviet plans also call for a
the armed forces in 1960-61, the
population will be unusually low
lion in 1961. On the assumption
further reduction of 1.2 million in
years when the additions to the adult
-- 0.9 million in 1960 and 1.4 mil-
that these plans are successfully
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carried out, total civilian employment is espected to increase from
104.2 million in 1959 to 112.9 million in 1965, as shown in Figure 1.
Plans for the state labor force call for an increase of 10.2 million
during this period, of which 8.7 million can be provided from popula-
tion growth and the planned cuts in the armed forces. In view of
current and planned allocations to investment in agriculture, the USSR
should have no difficulty in providing the remainder through transfers
from the collective farms as agricultural productivity increases. Ad-
ditional recruits also may come from the private sector of agriculture
if current efforts to reduce the importance of private plots and
privately owned cattle are successful. Agricultural employment is ex-
pected to decline by about 2 million by 1965, when it will represent
44 percent of the total. Fulfillment of the planned goal for employ-
ment in industry will bring its share of total employment to 26 per-
cent.
If Soviet planners find that they need more labor than originally
planned, they can allocate more youths to jobs instead of to full-time
day schools. Current efforts to improve efficiency in agriculture may
release more labor from farms than the projections imply. Finally,
the current drive to increase the proportion of working women cbuld be
intensified.
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7;r
1-toks,c,'
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I\ r
? ' ? ? _
;
:XcO)I
_ )
CJ--.1:c; c96,56
tal P
pulation
tam
---
---
Labo
Supply*
Labor Force
Nonag
icultu al Employment
Agricultu
ral Employment
'i,tiplogoittoil '14S 7,(4,JA.:
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I. Trends in Labor Supply and Employment, 1950-59
A. Population* and Labor Supply
Between 1950 and 1959 the total population of the USSR in-
creased from 182.3 million to 210.3 million -- an increase of 15.4
percent, as shown in Table l** and on the chart, Figure 2, below. The
adult population (14 years of age and older) increased by 13.3 percent.
Between 1950 and 1953 the adult population absorbed almost the entire
population increase because the relatively low birth rates of World
War II were retarding the increase in the number of children. After
1953, however, annual increments to the adult population declined
rapidly until in 1959 the annual increase was only 0.8 million --
about one-third of what it had been in 1953.
TOTAL
USSR:
POPULATION
LABOR
FORCE
AGRICULTURAL
EMPLOYMENT
NONAGRICULTURAL
EMPLOYMENT
POPULATION
1950
AND
nd
LABOR
1959
FORGE
z,\\\,?\ \\?, \\\L
?k?\\\,\., N\'`,`k.-?W&%` 'loam
50.8
38.8
*Population
Toaciiii at%
excluding
MILLION
PERSONS
in 1950
1959
k.\\
day-school
enrollment.
igure
210.3
* All population data in this report are mid-year estimates.
** Table 1 follows on p. 6.
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Table 1
Population and Labor Supply in the USSR 2/
1950, 1953, and 1955-59
Million Persons
Year
Totals
Annual Increases
Total
Population
Population
14 Years
of Age and Older
Labor
Supply
Total
Population
Population
14 Years
of Age and Older
Labor
Supply
1950
182.3
133.3
129.0
1953
190.9
140.9
133.0
2.9
2.5
1.3
1955
197.0
145.3
136.1
3.0
2.2
1.6
1956
200.2
147.3
138.3
3.2
2.0
2.2
1957
203.5
148.9
140.7
3.3
1.6
2.4
1958
206.9
(
150.2
143.6
3.4
1.3
2.9
1959
210.3
151.0
145.3
3.4
0.8
1.7
a. Annual average. For sources and methodology, see Appendix A.
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In spite of the sharp decrease in annual increments to the
adult population, increments to the labor supply increased steadily
between 1950 and 1958. Although the increment was smaller in 1959,
the growth of the labor supply in that year was twice as large as
the growth in the adult population.
These changes in the labor supply relative to changes in the
adult population resulted from the sharp fluctuations in day-school
enrollment that occurred during the 1950's. The number of persons
enrolled in full-time day classes in Soviet high schoolsand colleges
increased from 4.3 million to 9.2 million during 1950-55 and declined
steadily thereafter to 5.7 million in 1959, as shown in Table 2.*
Most affected were the general high schools (grades 8 through 10).
These changes in school enrollment were the direct result of
government policies with respect to education, policies that evidently
were heavily influenced by the relative availabilities and needs for
labor in the economy. In 1950 the regime began a rapid expansion of
the general (day) high schools, and by 1955 enrollment was 3.5 times
that of 1950. Because the number of persons of high school age actu-
ally declined during the period, the proportion enrolled in these day
schools increased sharply. This channeling of an increasing propor-
tion of youths into the school system occurred during a period when
the needs of the economy for labor were not acute. The Fifth Five
Year Plan (1951-55) called for an increase of only 1.2 million annu-
ally in the state labor force -- about one-half of the expected growth
in the adult population. Even with the sharp increase in school en-
rollment, the plan was exceeded.**
The abandoned Sixth Five Year Plan (1956-60) called for an
annual increase of 1.3 million in the state labor force, in spite of
prospects for a sharp decline in annual increments to the adult popu-
lation. At the same time, a crisis was developing in education be-
cause the high schools -- with their academic curricula -- were pre-
paring more and more students for college while the universities and
technikumsxxx were not expanding fast enough to accommodate them.
Thus growing numbers of academically trained high school graduates
were entering the labor market, disillusioned over their inability to
go to college and little better prepared for jobs than elementary
Table 2 follows on p. 8.
XX See C, 1, p. 12, below.
*** Technikums are primarily designed to train semiprofessional
technicians as assistants to the more highly trained college gradu-
ates. In addition, they train for such professions as dentistry,
nursing, and teaching (primarily for elementary schools). Graduates
of technikums have completed from 1 to 3 years of schooling beyond
the high school level.
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Table 2
School Enrollment of the Population 14 Years of Age and Older
in the USSR 11./
1950,
1953,
and 1955-59
Thousand Persons
Type of School
1950
1953
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Total enrollment
6,365
10 ,686
12,236
4.2,359
11,713
10,275
9,958
Day
4,265
7,852
9,173
8,989
8,194
6,609
5,703
Evening and correspondence
2,100
2,834
3,063
3,370
3,519
3,666
4,255
General schools
2,938
6,1149
7,053
6J 981
6,281
5,316
4 800
Day (grades 8 through 10) 12/
1,500
4,500
5,200
_
5,040
4,350
3,400
2,500
Evening and correspondence
1,438
1,949
1,853
1,941
1,931
1,916
2,300
Labor reserve schools (day)
882
1,029
1,356
1,365
1,392
904
991
Technikums
1 7-9-7
1 646
1,960
2,2E,
1,911.1
1 B7
1,907
Day
1,065
1,328
1,470
1,407
1,259
1,125
1,067
Evening and correspondence
233
318
490
605
682
751
840
Universities and VUZes
1,211.7
1,562
1,867
22 001
2,099
2,179
2,260
Day
818
995
1,147
_.
1,177
1,193
1,180
1,145
Evening and correspondence
429
567
720
824
906
999
1,115
a. As of September. For sources and methodology, see Appendix A.
b. Including some students in grade 11, established experimentally in a few Soviet schools after
1955.
c. Vyssheye Uchebnoye Zavedeniye (VUZ) -- Institute of Higher Education.
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school graduates. As a result, the proportion of youths of high school
age (14 through 16) in grades 8 through 10 of the general schools began
to decrease after 1955 -- from 46 percent in that year to 30 percent in
1959. Thus several million additional teenagers became available for
work. The particularly sharp decline in day school enrollment in 1958
and 1959 undoubtedly resulted from the radical educational reform an-
nounced in 1958. Although the period of compulsory schooling was ex-
tended from 7 years to 8 years, the reform legislation provided for
the gradual replacement of the academic high schools with vocational-
academic high schools, where students would work part-time; encouraged
night school and correspondence study at the secondary and college
level; and included features intended to insure better control over
the allocation of youths between the schools and the labor force.
B. Total Labor Force and Civilian Employment
The total labor force increased 12.1 million between 1950 and
1959,* and civilian employment increased 14.6 million, the difference
being accounted for by a corresponding decrease in the armed forces as
shown in Table 3.** The annual increases in civilian employment were
only about 1 million between 1950 and 1955, 3.3 million in 1956, and
1.7 million to 1.8 million between 1957 and 1959. As noted pre-
viously,*** the increments to the labor supply increased steadily in
all but one year (1959) of this period, and the fluctuations in the
increments to civilian employment must therefore have resulted from
factors other than changes in the labor supply.
By far the most important of these factors was the changing
level of the armed forces. According to an announcement by Khrushchev
in January 1960, the Soviet armed forces were reduced from 5.8 million
in 1955 to 3.6 million by the end of 1959; he also announced that the
armed forces were 2.8 million in 1948. l/t The USSR previously had
announced reductions of 640,000 in 19557 1.2 million in 1956-57, and
300,000 in 1958. tt 2/ The estimates shown in Table 3 indicate that
during the period 1950-59 reductions in the military establishment
* These estimates indicate almost no change in the over-all labor
force participation rate of the population 14 years of age and older
not in school over the period as a whole. For a discussion of the
use of labor force participation rates in the estimates and projec-
tions presented in this report, see Appendix A.
** Table 3 follows on p. 10.
XXX See Table 1, p. 6, above.
t For serially numbered source references, see Appendix B.
tt The estimates of the armed forces for 1955-59 shown in Table 3,
are based on these announcements. For the derivation of the estimates
for 1950 and 1953, see Appendix A.
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Table 3
Employment Status of the Population 14 Years of Age and Older
in the USSR 2/
1950, 1953,
and 1955-59
Million Persons
Employment Status
1950
1953
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Both sexes, 14 years and older
133.3
140.9
145.3
147.3
148.9
150.2
151.0
Labor force
95.7
99.1101.4
103.5
104.5
106.2
107.8
Civilian employment
89.6
92.5
95.6
98.9
100.6
1
104.2
Armed forces
6.1 Si
6.6 I,/
5.8
4.6
3.9
3.6
Day school
4.3
7.9
9.2
9.0
8.2
6.6
5.7
Other s/
33.3
33.9
34.7
34.8
36.2
37.4
37.5
Men, 14 years and older
54.8
58.9
61.3
62.5
63.4
64.2
64.8
Labor force
45.4
47.5
49.0
49.8
50.2
51.5
52.6
Civilian employment
39.3
40.9
43.2
45.2
46.3
47.7
49.0
Armed forces
6.1 Si
6.6 .12/
5.8
4.6
3.9
3.8
3.6
Day school
2.4
4.0
4.7
4.9
4.7
3.8
3.4
Other
7.0
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.5
8.9
8.8
Women, 14 years and older
78.5
82.0
84.0
84.8
85.5
86.0
86.2
Labor force
50.3
51.6
52.4
53.7
54.3
54.7
55.2
Civilian employment
50.3
51.6
52.4
53.7
54.3
54.7
55.2
Armed forces
1/
I/
2/
1/
Day school
1.9
3.9
4.5
4.1
3.5
2.8
2.3
Other
26.3
26.5
27.1
27.0
27.7
28.5
28.7
a. Data on population and armed forces are as of 1 July, on school enrollment as of September, and on civilian employment are a hybrid of
annual averages and other types of estimates. For sources and methodology, see Appendix A.
b. See Appendix A, pp. 30 and 31, below.
c. Including housewives and persons unemployed, retired, institutionalized (except prisoners employed in state enterprises), or disabled;
persons exclusively engaged in private activities not registered with authorities; and members of the armed security forces.
d. The number of women in the armed forces was not reported and was assumed to be negligible.
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made 2.5 million men available for the civilian economy. Nearly all
of the reduction occurred during 1955-59, when the increments to the
adult population were declining sharply. The unusually large in-
crease in civilian employment in 1956 (3.3 million) reflects the im-
pact of transfers of solaiers to civilian employment.
The reductions in the armed forces during 1955-59 also helped
to offset the loss of older workers resulting from a new pension law
effective 1 October 1956. This law not only increased old age pen-
sions substantially but also discriminated against pensioners who con-
tinued to work. 1/ As a result, the number of persons receiving state
old-age pensions increased from 1.6 million in 1955 to 3.5 million in
1958, /.:.[/ and the proportion of pensioners who continued to work de-
clined from 60 percent to 20 percent. 2/ Thus the rate of participa-
tion in the labor force by older persons probably decreased somewhat
after 1956.
The rate of participation in the labor force by teenagers also
may have decreased slightly during 1955-57 because of increased unem-
ployment* among them. This unemployment, which apparently was both
voluntary and involuntary, was due in part to the failure to expand
college enrollments sufficiently to accommodate the rapidly growing
number of high school graduates, many of whom preferred to remain un-
employed rather than to take manual jobs, _61 and also in part to the
reluctance of enterprise managers to hire teenagers -- probably be-
cause the cost was too high and an alternative source of labor was
available in the soldiers being demobilized during this period.
Initially, government efforts to alleviate the problem were
aimed at providing incentives to the youths to take jobs. Effective
1 July 1956 the workday was reduced from 8 hours to 6 hours for per-
sons 16 and 17 years old, with the provision that they were to receive
a full day's pay. I/ Effective 1 January 1957 the minimum wage was
raised and the special bachelor tax was abolished for low-paid
workers. _81 These measures, however, sharply increased the cost of
employing teenagers. The government, therefore, found it necessary to
impose mandatory employment quotas on state enterprises in 1957. 21/
Finally, it is improbable that much of the change in civilian
employment during the period could be attributable to transfers of
* As noted above (p. 1), the estimates of the labor force presented
in this report do not include estimates of unemployment. Although
there undoubtedly is some frictional unemployment in the USSR, there
is no reliable way to estimate its level, and there is no evidence
that the unemployment rate -- whatever it is -- changed significantly
during the period 1950-59.
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people from "uncounted" categories to "counted" categories. The sharp
increase in civilian employment during 1953-57 has sometimes been at-
tributed in part to the release of forced laborers from prison camps
during that period. Statements made by the Soviet Deputy Procurator
General, P.I. Kudryavtsev, to a US jurist suggest that the USSR by
1957 had released more than 2 million of the approximately 3 million
persons imprisoned in early 1953. 12/ Although these may be underesti-
mates of the prison population, there is little doubt that several mil-
lion people were involved in the releases since 1953 and that most of
them were Soviet citizens who returned to "civilian" life and to
"civilian" employment. There is no evidence, however, that these re-
leases appreciably inflated the statistics on civilian employment,
apparently because working prisoners, who were in general employed by
"state" enterprises -- including those administered by the Ministry of
Internal Affairs (MVD) -- were reported in the statistics on the state
labor force, at least since 1950. Had the employed prisoners not been
so reported, their release in such substantial numbers would have been
reflected in these statistics. The increases in civilian employment
during 1953-57 can readily be explained by factors other than the re-
lease of prisoners.
C. Structure of Civilian Employment
The major structural changes in civilian employment between
1950 and 1959 are reflected in the data in Table 4.* Nonagricultural
employment as a proportion of total employment increased from 43 per-
cent in 1950 to 51 percent in 1959, and the state labor force (workers
and employees) increased from 44 percent to 54 percent of the total.
Employment actually declined in farm and nonfarm cooperatives and in
private farming and handicrafts. Industrial employment represented a
slightly larger percentage of nonagricultural employment in 1959 than
in 1950.
1. State Labor Force
The number of workers and employees -- persons employed in
state enterprises and institutions -- increased by 17.3 million during
1950-59. The goals for the state labor force generally have been ex-
ceeded by considerable margins,** as shown in Table 5.*** This over-
fulfillment probably was not entirely caused by faulty planning, how-
ever, because the announced goals apparently do not include employment
Table 4 follows on p. 13.
** During the Fourth Five Year Plan (1946-50) the plan called
for an increase of 6.2 million in the state labor force, but an in-
crease of 11.6 million was actually achieved.
*** Table 5 follows on p. 14.
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Table 4
Civilian Employment in the USSR
by Class of Worker and Branch of the Economy 2/
1950, 1953, and 1955-59
Million Persons
Class of Worker and Branch of the Economy
1950
1953
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Total
Class of worker
89.6
92.5
95.6
98.9
100.6
102.4
104.2
Workers and employees
39.0
43.7
48.4
50.5
53.1
54.6
56.3
Members of artisans cooperatives
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
Collective farmers
44.6
43.1
41.6
43.3
42.4
42.6
42.8
Self-employed, unpaid family workers
and others12/
4.4
4.0
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.7
Branch of economy
Agriculture
50.8
50.1
50.5
52.1
51.9
51.7
51.4
Nonagriculture
38.8
42.4
45.1
46.8
48.7
50.7
52.8
Industry
17.8
20.1
21.9
22.9
23.5
24.0
24.7
Other .91
21.0
22.3
23.2
23.9
25.2
26.7
28.1
a. For sources and methodology, see Appendix A.
b. Including approximately 200,000 full-time employees of the Communist Party and re-
lated organizations.
c. Primarily persons employed in construction, transport and communications, trade,
education and health, and state administration.
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transfers of the kind that would result from the conversion of col-
lective farms into state farms, changes in the status of machine
tractor stations (MTS's), and the conversion of artisans cooperatives
into state enterprises. The conversion of collective farms to state
farms and the transfer of the farmers to state payrolls, for example,
played a major role in the growth of the state labor force in 1957.
Similarly the transfer of collective fdrmers to the MTS's between
1950 and 1955 increased the state labor force by more than 2 million.
Regardless of these statistical transfers, however, the increase of
employment in the nonagricultural branches alone consistently exceeded
the total planned growth in the state labor force during 1950-59.
Table 5
Comparisons of Planned and Actual Changes
in the State Labor Force of the USSR 2/
1950-59
Thousand Persons
Total State Labor Force
1950-55
,1956
1957
1958
1959
Planned
+5,800
+1,300
+1,700
+1,800
+1,300
Actual
+9,485
+2,157
12/
+2,611
+1,452
+1,700
Industry, construction,
and transport and
communications
+4,870
+1,683
12/
+1,250
+1,106
T4-1,182
Other nonagricultural
branches
+1,895
+536
+663
+882
+869
Machine tractor
stations
+2,387
-185
-326
-1,292
-741
State farms and other
state agriculture
+333
+123
+1,024
+756
+390
a. 12/ and official Soviet plan announcements.
b. Including 600,000 persons transferred from artisans cooperatives
into the state labor force.
2. Agricultural Employment
The estimates of agricultural employment used in this re-
port refer to the number of persons 14 years and older who are em-
ployed primarily on state and collective farms during the year. Agri-
cultural employment also includes workers engaged in tending privately
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owned cattle and in farming private plots on collective and state
farms and in cities.* In spite of the sharp decline as a share of
total civilian employment, the level of agricultural employment was
about the same (51 million) in 1959 as in 1950. The historical down-
ward trend was reversed temporarily after 1953 as a result of Khru-
shchev's agricultural policies. After increasing during 1953-56, agri-
cultural employment again began to decline slowly.
3. Industrial Employment
The estimates of industrial employment shown in Table 4**
include all industrial personnel employed in state industrial estab-
lishments, on collective farms, and in industrial cooperatives, as
well as those persons engaged in industrial activities in state estab-
lishments not classified by major activity in industry.***
Total industrial employment increased about 4 percent annu-
ally between 1950 and 1959, more than twice as fast as total civilian
employment. The rate of growth also has been twice as fast as that
called for in the Fifth Five Year Plan (1951-55) and in the annual
plans for 1956-59. Plans for labor were exceeded, as were plans for pro-
duction in all these years, but for some years plans for productivity
were not fulfilled.
II. Outlook for Labor Supply and Employment, 1960-65
A. Population and Labor Supply
Assuming a continuation of current fertility rates, the total
population of the USSR is expected to grow by about 3.5 million a year
during 1960-65, as shown in Table 6t and on the chart, Figure 3.tt
The rate of growth in the population will be somewhat lower than during
the 1950's, however, because the relatively small number of girls born
during World War II will be marrying and having children in the next
several years. Increments to the population 14 years of age and older
will increase sharply -- from 0.9 million in 1960 to 2.9 million in
1964. Annual increments to the labor supply are expected to continue
to decline during 1960-61 and then to increase steadily thereafter.
* In 1958, 53 percent of all the meat produced in the USSR, 53 per-
cent of all milk, and 85 percent of all eggs were obtained from
privately owned livestock and poultry. 1E/ These estimates of agri-
cultural employment may differ significantly in level and trend from
estimates of agricultural "labor input." See Appendix A, p. 35, below.
** P. 13, above.
*** Industry includes mining, electric power, and manufacturing.
t Table 6 follows on p. 16.
tt Figure 3 follows on p. 17.
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Table 6
Population and Labor Supply in the USSR
1959-65
Million Persons
Totals Annual Increases
Year
Total
Population
Population
14 Years
of Age and Older
Labor
Supply
Total
Population
Population
14 Years
of Age and Older
Labor
Supply
1959
210.3
151.0
145.3
1960
213.9
151.9
146.7
3.6
0.9
1.4
1961
217.4
153.3
147.6
3.5
1.4
0.9
1962
220.9
155.4
149.0
3.5
2.1
1.4
1963
224.3
157.9
150.8
3.4
2.5
1.8
1964
227.6
160.8
152.8
3.3
2.9
2.0
1965
231.0
163.6
155.0
3.4
2.8
2.2
a. Annual average. For sources and methodology, see Appendix A.
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TOTAL
USSR:
POPULATION
LABOR
LABOR
ESGIV
FORCE
AGRICULTURAL
EMPLOYMENT
NONAGRICULTURAL
EMPLOYMENT
POPULATION
1959
and
AND
LABOR
projected
1965
FORGE
igure
9.415
OM)
*Population
OL9
tka via= airi alak
excluding
MILLION
day-school
PERSONS
1959
1965
enrollment.
0
The expectations concerning the labor supply are based on pro-
jections of the population and on the estimates of school enrollment
shown in Table 7* that are derived from Soviet plan goals for 1965
plus various assumptionsconcerning progress during the intervening
years. As noted previously,** the USSR currently is carrying out a
major reorganization of education which is scheduled for completion by
1965 but which seems to be proceeding rather slowly at present. As the
reform progresses, however, the number of persons in the eighth grade
(to be compulsory) and in the new "labor-polytechnical" high schools
and vocational-technical schools will increase steadily. At the same
time, however, the reorganization will give Soviet planners better
control over school enrollment than they had previously. Although
the state has always maintained tight control over enrollments in
* Table 7 follows on p. 18.
** See I, A, p. 9, above.
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Table 7
Projections of School Enrollment of the Population 14 Years of Age and Older
in the USSR 2/
1959-65
Thousand Persons
Type of School
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
Total enrollment
9,958
10 ,200 L
11,+00
12,800
111 ,30O
15,800
17,300
Day
5,703
5,200
5,700
6,400
7,100
8,000
8,600
Evening and correspondence
4,255
5,000
5,700
6,400
7,200
7,800
8,700
General, labor-polytechnical
and vocational-technical schools 12/
5,791
5,900
7,000
8,300
9,700
11,100
12,500
Day
3,491
3,100
3,700
4,500
5,400
6,300
7,100
Evening and correspondence
2,300
2,800
3,300
3,800
4,300
4,800
5,400
Technikums
1,907
1,900
1,900
1,900
1,900
1,900
1,900
Day
1,067
1,000
900
800
700
700
600
Evening and correspondence
84o
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,200
1,300
Universities and VUZes 2/
2,260
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
Day
1,145
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,000
1,000
900
Evening and correspondence
1,115
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,700
1,800
2,000
a. As of September. For sources and methodology, see Appendix A. Data for the years 1960-65 have been
rounded to the nearest hundred thousand.
b. Until 1959, vocational-technical schools were called labor reserve schools.
c. Vyssheye Uchebnoye Zavedeniye (VUZ) -- Institute of Higher Education.
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universities and technikums, high school enrollment has been much less
strictly regulated. In the current reorganization the control of ad-
missions to the high schools is placed in the hands of the regional
planning authorities. Each elementary school graduate must start
socially useful labor, and all his subsequent education must be linked
with productive labor in the national economy. 12/ This "productive
labor" is to take the form either of a- job or of admission to a "labor-
polytechnical" high school (3 years) or to a vocational-technical
school (1 to 3 years). In this connection the Deputy Minister of Edu-
cation for the RSFSR recently stated explicitly that the number of
graduates from the eighth grade who would go directly to work would
be determined by the state's needs for labor. 12il This type of con-
trol over high school admissions will give the USSR much greater
flexibility in the allocation of its youths between school and the
labor force.
To insure an ample supply of labor during the current plan
period, the reorganization seeks to encourage young people to attend
high school and college at night. Working youths who attend high
school at night work only 5 days a week instead of the usual 6 and
receive half-pay for the day not worked. These privileges also ares
granted to youths in the fifth, sixth, and seventh grades of the
evening schools, but only until September 1962. 12/ According to the
Seven Year Plan (1959-65), evening and correspondence enrollment in
technikums and universities is to comprise an increasing proportion
of total enrollment. lg Finally, workers enrolled in technikums and
universities are to be granted up to 40 days of additional annual
leave, with partial pay, for examinations and laboratory work. 12/
B. Total Labor Force and Civilian Employment
The total labor force is expected to increase by 7.5 million
between 1959 and 1965 as a result of population growth. Civilian
employment, however, is expected to increase 8.7 million -- the dif-
ference being accounted for by a projected decrease in the armed
forces, as shown in Table 8.* The average annual increments to
civilian employment will be smallest during 1960-63, reflecting simi-
larly small increments to the labor supply. Both the total increase
and the year-to-year changes during 1960-65 will be considerably
smaller than during the preceding 6-year period.
The projections of civilian employment take into account the
planned reductions in the armed forces -- 1.2 million in 1960 and
1961 -- approved by the Supreme Soviet in January 1960. These reduc-
tions will provide additional labor for the civilian economy during
the years when the additions to the adult population will be lowest.
* Table 8 follows on p. 20.
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Table 8
Projections of the Employment Status of the Population 14 Years of Age and Older
in the USSR 2/
1959-65
Million Persons
Employment Status
1959
1960
1961
1962
1_3_
1964
1965
Both sexes, 14 years and older
151.0
151.9
153.3
155.4
157.9
160.8
163.6
Labor force
107.8
108.9
109.6
110.7
112.1
113.6
115.3
Civilian employment
1.04.2
105.6
106.9
108.3
109.7
111.2
112.9
Armed forces
3.6
3.3
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
Day school
5.7
5.2
5.7
6.4
7.1
8.0
8.6
Other h/
37.5
37.8
38.0
38.3
38.7
39.2
39.7
Men, 14 years and older
64.8
65.3
66.2
67.4
68.8
70.4
72.0
Labor force
52.6
53.2
53.8
54.5
55.4
56.3
57.3
Civilian employment
49.0
49.9
51.1
52.1
53.0
53.9
54.9
Armed forces
3.6
3.3
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
Day school
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.7
5.1
Other
8.8
8.9
9.0
9.1
9.2
9.4
9.6
Women, 14 years and older
86.2
86.6
87.1
88.0
89.1
90.4
91.6
Labor force
55.2
55.7
55.8
56.2
56.7
57.3
58.0
Civilian employment
55.2
55.7
55.8
56.2
56.7
57.3
58.0
Armed forces
2/
2/
2/
2/
2/
2/
2/
Day school
2.3
2.0
2.3
2.6
2.9
3.3
3.5
Other
28.7
28.9
29.0
29.2
29.5
29.8
30.1
a. Data on population and armed forces are as of 1 July, on school enrollment as of September, and on civilian employment are a hybrid of
annual averages and other types of estimates. For sources and methodology, see Appendix A.
b. Including housewives and persons unemployed, retired, institutionalized (except prisoners employed in state enterprises), or disabled;
persons exclusively engaged in private activities not registered with authorities; and members of the armed security forces.
c.
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The projections of civilian employment also assume that the
rates of participation in the labor force for men and women will not
change significantly during 1960-65.* These rates are already quite
high by Western standards, particularly the rate for women. In spite
of the fact that two-thirds of all adult women now work, the USSR
nevertheless has recently launched a major effort to induce even more
women to enter employment. This effort includes the planned expan-
sion of boarding schools, kindergartens, and nurseries; the opening
of canteens and repair services; the increased production of home
appliances; and, finally, a propaganda campaign to persuade women to
take jobs. Substantial increases in the minimum wage and reductions
in the workweek scheduled during 1960-65 also will provide incentives
for women to work.
If these efforts are successful, the rate of participation by
women may increase somewhat, but this increase may be offset toward
the end of the period by a decline in the rate of participation by
older persons. Soviet plans call for a substantial increase in mini-
mum pensions in 1963, and some decrease in the employment of older
persons undoubtedly will occur. If the USSR finds that it needs more
labor than planned, however, it can, with the newly strengthened con-
trols over school enrollment, channel a larger proportion of youths
into jobs instead of into schools.
C. Structure of Civilian Employment
Projections of civilian employment by class of worker and
branch of the economy are shown in Table 9.** These projections are
based on the assumption that the planned goals for the state labor
force will be fulfilled and that the required labor not provided
through increase in the labor supply and reductions in the armed
forces will be obtained by transfers from the cooperative and private
sectors of the economy.
1. State Labor Force
The Seven Year Plan (1959-65) sets a goal for the state
labor force (workers and employees) of 66.5 million in 1965. To
achieve this goal, 10.2 million persons must be added to the state
labor force between 1959 and 1965. According to the projections of
civilian employment presented in Table 9, 8.7 million workers can be
provided from population growth and through transfers from the armed
forces. The remaining 1.5 million will have to be obtained by trans-
fers from the cooperative and private sectors of the economy. The
See Appendix A, p. 37, below.
** Table 9 follows on p. 22.
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Table 9
Projections of Civilian Employment in the USSR
by Class of Worker and Branch of the Economy 2/
1959-65
Million Persons
Class of Worker and Branch of the Economy
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
Total
104.2
105.6
106.9
108.3
109.7
111.2
112.9
Class of worker
Workers and employees
56.3
58.0
59.7
61.4
63.1
64.8
66.5
Members of artisans cooperatives
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.7
Collective farmers
42.8
42.5
42.2
42.0
41.7
41.5
41.6
Self-employed, unpaid family workers,
and others y
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
Branch of economy
Agriculture
51.4
51.0
50.6
50.2
49.8
49.5
49.4
Nonagriculture
52.8
54.6
56.3
58.1
59.9
61.7
63.5
Industry
24.7
25.4
26.1
26.9
27.7
28.5
29.3
Other
28.1
29.2
30.2
31.2
32.2
33.2
34.2
a. For sources and methodology, see Appendix A.
b. Including approximately 200,000 full-time employees of the Communist Party and related
organizations.
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estimates shown in Table 9* assume that the number of collective
farmers and the number of unpaid family workers will decline accord-
ingly. The projected decline in unpaid family workers in agriculture
seems reasonable in view of recent Soviet actions to curtail private
activities on farms. For example, state farms have recently been in-
structed to purchase by 1962 all livestock owned by their employees, 111,/
and the maintenance of privately owned cattle in urban areas of the
RSFSR has been outlawed. 12/ With respect to transfers from the col-
lective farms, even smaller gains in productivity than those achieved
in recent years would be adequate for the farms to release a little
more than 1 million persons to the state labor force, as projected.
2. Agricultural Employment
According to the projections shown in Table 9, total agri-
cultural employment is expected to decrease by 2 million between 1959
and 1965. Gains in efficiency on Soviet farms probably will be ade-
quate to release at least that number of persons for nonagricultural
employment.
The reduction in agricultural employment between 1959 and
1965 is expected to take place among both collective farmers and un-
paid family workers who farm private plots. The projections assume
that no major conversion of collective farms into state farms will
take place. Should such a development occur -- and past trends indi-
cate that it may -- collective farm employment will be smaller than
projected, and the number of workers and employees will be correspond-
ingly larger.
3. Industrial Employment
The projected increase of 4.6 million in industrial em-
ployment is based on planned goals for production and productivity set
by the Seven Year Plan (1959-65) as a whole. The plan calls for an
increase in industrial production of 80 percent and in labor produc-
tivity of about 47.5 percent. Should these goals be met, industrial
employment will comprise 26 percent of civilian employment in 1965
compared with 24 percent in 1959. The percentage may be even larger
if, as in the past, industrial employment increases faster than planned.
* P. 22, above.
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APPENDIX A
METHODOLOGY
The estimates of the total labor force and its components presented
in this report are based on official data published by the USSR. These
data are far from comprehensive and usually are presented without ade-
quate definition and explanation. The USSR does not publish specific
figures for the adult population by employment status that show the
civilian labor force, the armed forces, students, housewives, or others.
Only selected statistics on a few of these categories have been pub-
lished, and detailed statistics on population are available for only
one recent date -- 15 January 1959.
Some double-counting is inevitable when treating separately such
published statistics as day school enrollment and employment as being
mutually exclusive. It is believed, however, that the magnitude of
such double-counting is too small to affect significantly the relation-
ships and trends described in this report.
In using the published data, particularly those relating to em-
ployment in the cooperative and private sectors, to develop the esti-
mates in this report, it was frequently necessary to make assumptions
concerning the definitions and coverage of the published statistical
series. Because of the interpretations selected and the concepts
used, these estimates necessarily may differ from those made by other
researchers using different interpretations of the data and different
methodology.
The concept of "labor force" used in this report is intended to
measure utilized manpower resources in terms of persons and is con-
sidered particularly suited for use in conjunction with projections
of the population to estimate future resources of manpower under spe-
cific assumptions regarding labor force participation. It is believed
that the estimates of the labor force presented in this report measure
these resources about as well as can be done with the ?data now avail-
able, in spite of the fact that the estimates given for the two major
components of the labor force series -- workers and employees; col-
lective farmers -- are not strictly comparable. The estimates of the
former are annual averages, whereas estimates of the latter are assumed
to represent an annual count of the number of persons who worked at
the collective farms some time during the year. This measure of em-
ployment on collective farms is intended to represent manpower resources
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available at these farms, in contrast to an annual average that would
represent labor utilized. Agricultural employment is highly seasonal,
and annual averages greatly understate the number of persons actually
available for work on farms or for transfer to the nonagricultural
branches of the economy.* With respect to workers and employees, the
annual average does not significantly understate the total manpower
available during the year, because seasonality in employment is not
great among these overwhelmingly nonagricultural workers.
I. Population
The estimates and projections of the population of the USSR by age
and sex were prepared by the Foreign Manpower Research Office, US
Bureau of the Census, and are revisions of estimates published by that
office in early 1959. 22/ These estimates and projections are con-
sistent with the announced results of the population census conducted
VY the USSR in January 1959. 21/
II. School Enrollment of the Population 14 Years of Age and Older
For the period 1950-59, estimates of day-school enrollment refer
only to secondary schools and colleges. Although some of the students
in the seven-year elementary schools undoubtedly are 14 years of age
or older, their number was assumed to be negligible. For the period
1960-65, estimates of day-school enrollment also include students in
the eighth grade of the reorganized elementary schools because these
students would be at least 14 years old. The data on enrollment in
evening and correspondence schools include all students in these
schools regardless of age.
A. Estimates of School Enrollment by Sex, 1950-59
Total enrollment in the various schools in 1950, 1953, and
1955-59 is given in Soviet statistical handbooks. Only enroll-
ment in the day high schools (grades 8 through 10) in 1959 had to be
estimated, and it was assumed that enrollment in these schools would
continue to decline somewhat faster than the population of high school
age.
In order to estimate labor supply by sex, it was necessary
also to estimate day-school enrollment by sex. These estimates had
to be made separately for each type of school from information re-
lating to total enrollment (day, evening, and correspondence). The
distribution of day-school enrollment by sex in each type of school
was assumed to be the same as for total enrollment.
* See p. 35, below.
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1. General Schools, Grades 8 Through 10
The proportion of women in general schools was reported
in a Soviet journal as 54.5 percent in 1950 and 55.4 percent in
1955 21/; the proportion was estimated at 55.0 percent in 1953 by
interpolation. Because about the same percentages also were re-
ported for technikums, it was assumed that the percentage of women
in grades 8 through 10 in 1956-59 was the same as reported for
technikums -- 52 percent in 1956, 48 percent in 1957, 47 percent
in 1958, and 45 percent in 1959.
2. Technikums and Colleges
The percentages of women in technikums and colleges in
1950, 1956, 1957, and 1958 are given in a Soviet handbook. gl.:Y Com-
parable figures for 1955 appeared in another Soviet handbook, 22/
and the percentages for 1959 were reported in the Soviet press. Eg
3. Labor Reserve Schools
A distribution of admissions to labor reserve schools,
by sex, appeared in the 1958 Soviet statistical handbook for the
period 1951-55 as a whole and annually for 1956-58. 27/ The distri-
bution by sex of total enrollment was assumed to be the same as for
admissions. The average given for 1951-55 was used for each of the
years 1950, 1953, and 1955. The distribution in 1959 was assumed to
be the same as in 1958.
B. Projections of School Enrollment by Sex, 1960-65
The projections of school enrollment in 1960-65 are based on
the assumption that the USSR in general will fulfill its announced
goals for enrollment in 1965, which presumably are consistent with
other goals of the Seven Year Plan, such as the anticipated growth
of civilian employment. Because goals were announced only for 1965,
estimates for 1960-64 had to be based on assumptions about the pace
of fulfillment. The announced goals relate to total enrollment, and
because the sex structure of the school-age population will not change
significantly between 1959 and 1965, it was asgumed that the distribu-
tion of school enrollment by sex, in each type of school, will not
change.
1. General Schools (Grades 8 Through 11)
Enrollment in grades 9 through 11 of the general schools
in 1965 was estimated at 3.9 million by subtracting planned enrollment
in grades 1 through 8 (36 million) and in schools for worker and rural
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youths (4.8 million) 218/ plus an estimate of 600,000 enrolled in
schools for adults from the planned total enrollment in all general
schools of 45.3 million. 22/ In addition, it was assumed that 2 mil-
lion persons 14 years of age and older would be enrolled in grade 8
in 1965, about one-half the number of persons 14 years of age in that
year. This estimate is based on evidence that the 8-year school will
be introduced very gradually. L/ To estimate enrollment in grades
8 throudi 11 during 1960-64, the estimates of enrollment in 1959 and
1965 were first expressed as percentages of the population 14 through
17 years of age, from which most of these students would be drawn.
The percentages are 21 in 1959 and 37 in 1965. Estimates for the in-
tervening years were then obtained by assuming a small decline in the
enrollment rate in 1960, a rapid rise in 1961 and 1962 -- when the
first relatively large group of children born after World War II will
reach age 14 -- and smaller increases in 1963-65.
2. Vocational-Technical Schools*
Although enrollment goals for vocational-technical schools
have not been announced, some expansion in enrollment is planned. 2/
It was assumed, therefore, that enrollment would increase from a re-
ported 991,000 in 1959 to 1.2 million in 1965. Estimates for inter-
vening years were interpolated.
3. Schools for Worker and Rural Youths and for Adults
The planned enrollment in schools for worker and rural
youths in 1965 was announced in the Soviet press. L/ It was assumed
that enrollment in schools for adults would be 600,000 in 1965 com-
pared with about 200,000 in 1959 -- the rate of increase planned for
the schools for worker and rural youths. Estimates for intervening
years were interpolated.
4. Technikums
According to the Seven Year Plan (1959-65), 4 million per-
sons will be admitted to technikums during 1959-65. Because average
annual admissions are to be approximately the same as in the preceding
5-year period, 3.1/ total enrollment in each of the years 1960-65 was
assumed to be the same as in 1959 -- 1.9 million.
Day enrollment as a proportion of total enrollment de-
clined from 75 percent in 1955 to 56 percent in 1959. In view of the
planned expansion of enrollment in evening schools throughout the
* Until 1959 vocational-technical schools were called labor reserve
schools.
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postelementary school system, it was assumed that this proportion will
drop gradually to about 31 percent in 1965.
5. Colleges (Universities and VUZes*)
Estimates of college enrollment in 1960-65 are shown in
Table 10. Enrollment in 1960 (2,364,000) was obtained by adding
estimated admissions in September 1960 (533,000) to enrollment in 1959
(2,260,000), subtracting estimated graduations in June 1960 (323,000),
multiplying the result by the estimated dropout rate (4.3 percent),
and subtracting these dropouts. The same procedure was used for each
succeeding year.
Table 10
Total Admissions, Graduations, and Enrollment
in Universities and VUZes in the USSR
1955-65
Year
Admissions pi
(Thousand)
Graduations 12/
(Thousand)
Enrollment
Unadjusted
for
Dropouts /
(Thousand)
Dropout
Rate
(Percent)
Enroll-
ment
(Thousand)
1955
461
246
N.A.
N.A.
1,867
1956
459
260
2,066
3.1
2,001
1957
438
267
2,172
3.4
2,099
1958
453
291
2,261
3.6
2,179
1959
513
337
2,355
11.0
2,260
1960
533
323
2,471
4.3
2,364
1961
553
321
2,597
4.6
2,477
1962
573
307
2,744
4.9
2,609
1963
593
317
2,886
5.2
2,735
1964
613
359
2,990
5.5
2,825
1965
633
373
3,086
5.8
2,906
a. As of September.
b. As of June.
* Vyssheye Uchebnoye Zavedeniye (VUZ) -- Institute of Higher Education.
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The figures on admissions, graduations, and enrollment
during 1955-59 were obtained from Soviet handbooks.112/ According
to the Soviet press, 8 million students are to be admitted to tech-
nikums and colleges during 1959-65. 12/ Because admissions to tech-
nikums are to be about 4 million, the other 4 million represent total
planned admissions to colleges, which were allocated to individual
years by assuming that the number of admissions in each year was
20,000 more than that of the preceding year.
Graduations each year during 1960-65 were estimated by
assuming that total graduations in each of these years would be
70 percent of the class admitted 5 years earlier -- a ratio that pre-
vailed during 1956-59. The results are consistent with the statement
in the Seven Year Plan (1959-65) that total college graduations will
be about 2.3 million. 1.Y
As shown in Table 10,* the dropout rate rose steadily
after 1956, probably a consequence of the rising enrollment in even-
ing and correspondence courses. Because this enrollment is scheduled
to increase sharply, it was assumed that the dropout rate also would
increase -- to 5.8 percent in 1965.**
The distribution of total enrollment between day and even-
ing classes is based on a statement by V. Yelyutin, who is Soviet
Minister of Higher and Secondary Specialized Education, that about
2 million college students will combine studies with jobs in 1965. 11/
Because total enrollment is estimated at 2,906,000 in 1965, day en-
rollment will be 906,000. Estimates of evening enrollment for the
years 1960-65 were interpolated, and estimates of day enrollment were
obtained by subtraction.
III. Total Labor Force and Civilian Employment, 1950-59
The total labor force in each year is the sum of an estimate of
the armed forces and an estimate of civilian employment. The esti-
mates of the armed forces in 1955-59 are based on Soviet announcements
concerning strengths and demobilizations of the armed forces. The
estimates for 1950 and 1953 were obtained as follows: (1) the total
male labor force in these years was estimated by assuming that the
rate of participation in the labor force by men in the labor supply
was the same in 1950 and 1953 as in 1955, and (2) the estimates of the
* P. 29, above.
** This measure of the dropout rate was adopted for convenience in
estimating enrollment and is not intended as a meaningful measure
of academic attrition. Such attrition is usually measured by relat-
ing the number of dropouts during the school year to enrollment at
the beginning of the school year.
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number of males in civilian employment, derived as explained below,
were then subtracted from the estimates of the total male labor
force to obtain the number of men in the armed forces.
The estimates of civilian employment are the sums of separate
estimates of employment, by sex, for four categories -- workers and
employees, members of artisans cooperatives, collective farmers, and
a residual comprised mainly of unpaid family workers.
A. Distribution of Civilian Employment by Class of Worker,
1950-59
1. Workers and Employees
The number of workers and employees is given in Soviet
handbpoks for 1950, 1953, and 1955-59. .311/ The percentages of women
among workers and employees also is reported in Soviet sources. 22/
2. Collective Farmers
Estimates of total collective farm employment and its
distribution by sex given in Table 11* were obtained (a) by estimat-
ing the number of persons in the "able-bodied ages" (men 16 through
59 and women 16 through 5)-i-) working on collective farms, (b) by
distributing this employment by sex on the basis of the reported per-
centages of women, and (c) by adding estimates of the number of other
persons 14 years of age and older working on collective farms obtained
by applying estimated rates of participation** to estimates of the
"non-able-bodied" population by age and sex.
a. Employment of Persons of Able-Bodied Age
The estimates of the number of persons in the able-
bodied ages employed on collective farms in 1950 and 1955-58 are the
sums of lines 5 and 11 of Table 12.*** These estimates are based on
a similar table in a Soviet handbook. 1.?2/ Although the term able-
bodied ages does not appear in the Soviet table, the Chief of the
Central Statistical Administration told a visiting US. economist that
the percentages shown for collective farm employment refer to persons
in these age groups. The percentages were converted to absolute numbers
* Table 11 follows on p. 32.
** These rates of participation express employment as a percentage
of the population in the age groups 14 to 15 for both sexes, 60 and
older for men, and 55 and older for women.
*** Table 12 follows on p. 33.
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Table 11
Distribution of Employment on Collective Farms
in the USSR, by Broad Age Groups and by Sex
1950,
1953,
and 1955-59
Million Persons
Age and Sex
1950
1953
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Total employment, 14 years
and older
44.6
43.1
41.6
43.3
42.4
42.6
42.8
Men
16.2
15.6
14.3
15.5
15.6
16.8
17.4
Women
28.4
27.5
27.3
27.8
26.8
25.8
25.4
Able-bodied ages
36.0
34.2
33.6
34.9
34.1
34.5
34.9
Men, 16 through 59
12.5
11.9
11.2
12.2
12.4
13.7
14.4
Women, 16 through 54
23.5
22.3
22.4
22.7
21.7
20.8
20.5
Other ages
8.6
8.9
8.0
8.4
8.3
8.1
7.9
Men
3.7
3.7
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
Women
4.9
5.2
4.9
5.1
5.1
5.0
4.9
by using the reported number of workers and employees and of members
of artisans cooperatives in each year.* As the percentage distribu-
tion was not given for total employment in the "nonproductive branches"
by class of worker, it was necessary to estimate the proportion of
collective farmers in these branches as a residual by subtracting out
the percentages that were workers and employees, plus an assumed per-
centage representing full-time employees of the Communist Party and
related organizations. The estimate for 1953 was obtained by inter-
polation, allowing for a more rapid decline before 1953 than after
1953. For 1959 it was assumed that employment increased by the same
amount as in 1958.
The total employment for collective farms in 1950,
1953, 1955, and 1957-58 was distributed by sex on the basis of the
reported percentages of women collective farmers. The The percentage
for 1956 was obtained by interpolation, and the percentage for 1959
* The estimating procedure is described in detail in a forthcoming
report of the Foreign Manpower Research Office, US Bureau of the
Census. _41/
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Table 12
Distribution of the Population
Employed in the National Economy of the USSR
by Branch of Material Production
and by Nonproductive Branches 21
1950 and 1955-58
Thousand Persons
1950 1955 1956 1957 1958
Total employed in state
and cooperative enter-
prises and institutions,
in kolkhozes, and in the
personal subsidiary
economy
(1)
80,955
87,567
90,479
92,327
94,325
Material production
(2)
69,783
74,607
77,088
78,386
79,516
Workers and employees
(3)
28,739
36,603
38,363
40,347
41,220
Members of artisans
cooperatives
()-i-)
1,214
1,576
995
1,108
1,132
Collective farmers
employed in the social
economy of the kolkhoz
and in the personal
subsidiary economy
(5)
35,620
32,838
34,111
33,238
33,485
Individual peasants
and private artisans
(6)
1,619
350
362
277
189
Members of families of
workers and employees
employed in personal
subsidiary economy
(7)
2,591
3,240
3,257
3,416
3,490
Nonproductive branches
(8)
11,172
12,960
13,391
13,941
14,809
Workers and employees
(9)
10,156
11,777
12,174
12,801
13,380
Members of artisans
cooperatives
(10)
385
223
205
92
168
Collective farmers
(11)
431
760
812
848
1,061
Other groups12/
(12)
200
200
200
200
200
a. Excluding military personnel.
b. Full-time workers of the Communist Party and related organizations.
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was assumed to be the same as in 1958. Because the reported per-
centages apparently refer to women as a proportion of all workers in
the able-bodied ages on collective farms, including MTS's,* and be-
cause nearly all MTS workers were men, an allowance had to be made
for the shift of collective farmers into and out of MTS's during
1950-58. To obtain the number of women collective farmers in the
able-bodied ages, therefore, the reported employment at MTS's was
added to the estimates of collective farm employment, and the re-
ported percentages of women were than applied to these totals. The
number of men was obtained by subtraction.
b. Employment on Collective Farms in the Non-Able-
Bodied Ages
The estimates of the number of persons 14 and 15 years
of age and the number of men 60 years of age and older and of women 55
years of age and older working on collective farms were obtained by
estimating the total population of collective farms in these age groups
from available Soviet data and applying rates of participation in the
labor force similar to those reported in the 1926 census, taking into
account the increased school enrollment of persons 14 and 15 years of
age.
3. Members of Artisans Cooperatives
Membership in artisans cooperatives was reported in Soviet
handbooks for 1955-59. Estimates for 1950 and 1953 were derived
from Soviet data by the US Bureau of the Census.1 Total membership
was distributed by sex on the basis of the percentages used to dis-
tribute workers and employees by sex.
4. Self-Employed, Unpaid Family Workers, and Others
Estimates of the number of persons in the category of
self-employed, unpaid family workers, and others in 1950 and 1955-58
were obtained by adding the figures in lines 6, 7, and 12 in Table 12.***
The number of self-employed and unpaid family workerst was estimated
by interpolation for 1953, and for 1959 a decline of 200,000 was as-
sumed. The number of "other groups" (mainly full-time, paid employees of
Persons employed at MTS's are classified as workers and employees.
** The principal source is a distribution of the collective farm
population by broad age groups for 1952-56, given in a Soviet hand-
book. Ill/
*** P. 33, above.
t Unpaid family workers included here are those working on private
plots and tending privately owned livestock at state farms and in
urban areas. Unpaid family workers living on collective farms are in-
cluded in the estimates of collective farm employment.
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the Communist Party) was assumed to remain unchanged in 1953 and
1959. The estimates were distributed by sex as follows: (a) the
self-employed and "others" were distributed in the same manner as
workers and employees; (D) it was assumed that 70 percent of the
unpaid family workers were women -- a somewhat higher proportion
than that for collective farmers.
B. Distribution of Employment by Branch of the Economy, 1950-59
1. Agriculture
The estimates of agricultural employment for 1950, 1953,
and 1955-59 are the sums of (a) collective farmers, but excluding
those employed in industrial activities at the farms; (b) workers and
employees in state agriculture, reported in Soviet handbooks Li?/;
(c) unpaid family workers, taken from line 7 of Table 12* for 1950
and 1955-58 and estimated for 1953 by interpolation and for 1959 by
extrapolation; and (d) self-employed farmers, representing about one-
half of those persons included in line 6 of Table 12.
The estimates of agricultural employment presented in this
report were obtained by adding together, for separate components of
agriculture, estimates of employment that are not strictly comparable.
Thus the employment figures derived from Table 12 for state farms and
MTS's (included among workers and employees) are annual averages,
those for collective farms are assumed to be an annual count of mem-
bers in certain "able-bodied" ages participating at some time during
the year in the collective economy or on their private plots, and
those for self-employed and unpaid family workers and probably man-
year equivalents. These estimates, 'therefore, may differ signifi-
cantly both in level and in trend from estimates computed exclusively
in terms of annual averages, man-year equivalents, or some other
measure of "labor input." The estimates would differ even more from
annual averages adjusted to exclude work in nonagricultural activities
(such as construction, education, and health) performed on Soviet
farms. Annual average employment in agriculture was reported in a
recently published Soviet handbook)12/ to be about 33 million in 1959.
The exclusion of nonagricultural activities at farms from this figure
accounts for part of the difference between it and the estimate of
51.4 million Which appears in Table 1+..** Most of the difference,
however, reflects time not worked by available manpower resources at
collective farms.
* P. 33, above.
** P. 13, above.
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In addition to this difference in over-all magnitude, year-
to-year changes depicted by the two series also may differ significantly.
Between 1956 and 1959, annual average employment in the socialized sec-
tor of collective farms declined 5 percent !AV in contrast to a decline
of only 1 percent in the estimates of collective farm employment shown
in Table 4.* The exclusion of employment on private plots from the
annual averages, and its inclusion in the latter estimates, suggests
that this difference may have resulted from increased employment on
the peasants' private holdings.
In spite of the hybrid nature of the estimates of agricul-
tural employment in this report and the fact that they tend to over-
state employment in purely agricultural activities, it is believed
that they are an appropriate measure of the labor force on Soviet
farms for the purpose of measuring the potential manpower available for
other branches of the economy.
2. Industry
The estimates of industrial employment for 1950-59 are un-
published estimates of the US Bureau of the Census. A detailed de-
scription of coverage and methodology, together with estimates for
1950 and 1955, appear in a report issued by the Bureau. 1451/ In general,
the estimates were obtained by estimating the total number of workers
(rabochiye) engaged in industrial activities at state enterprises, in-
dustrial cooperatives, and collective farms and adding estimates of the
number of overhead personnel (engineering-technical and administrative
employees, apprentices, and service personnel).
IV. Projections of the Total Labor Force and Civilian Employment,
1960-65
The total labor force was projected as follows. First, estimates
of day-school enrollment in 1960-65, obtained as described above, were
subtracted from the projections of the population 14 years of age and
older, by sex, to obtain estimates of the labor supply. Second, rates
of participation in the labor force in 1959 were computed for each sax
by dividing the total labor force by the labor supply. The rates of
participation thus derived were 85.7 percent for men and 65.8 percent
for women.** Third, estimates of the total labor force in 1960-65
were obtained by applying the rates of participation to the projec-
tions of the labor supply. The estimates of civilian employment were
then obtained by subtracting estimates of the armed forces from these
estimates of the total labor force, taking into account the planned
reduction of 1.2 million in the armed forces during 1960-61. LY
P. 13, above.
** These rates did not change significantly during 1955-59.
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The projections of employment thus assume that the over-all rates
of participation in the labor force of each sex of that portion of
the population not in full-time school will not change significantly
during 1960-65. Although these rates undoubtedly vary among age
groups, among women, and with marital status and number and age of
children, no Soviet data are available from which these rates can
be estimated reliably by age, or from which trends can be ascer-
tained. The procedure used here takes into account the two major
factors that affect rates of participation -- sex and school enroll-
ment. The age structure of the population will not change greatly
during 1960-65, and the projections of population imply no signifi-
cant change in either marital or family status.
A. Projections of Civilian Employment by Class of Worker, 1960-65
1. Workers and Employees
Estimates of the number of workers and employees were
made by assuming that the planned goal for 1965 will be met. Esti-
mates for 1960-64 were obtained by interpolation. It also has been
assumed that the planned increase in the number of workers and em-
ployees represents the anticipated growth in the nonagricultural
branches Of the state economy and, therefore, that any growth in em-
ployment in state agriculture as a result of the conversion of col-
lective farms to state farms will mean that the plan has been exceeded.
2. Collective Farmers
Estimates of the number of collective farmers are resid-
uals, obtained by subtracting the estimates for the other categories
(workers and employees, members of artisans cooperatives, and "others")
from the estimates of total civilian employment.
3. Members of Artisans Cooperatives
It was assumed that the number employed in artisans co-
operatives would increase by 300,000 during 1959-65, reflecting pri-
marily the planned increase in industrial employment.
4. Others
In view of current efforts by the USSR to reduce the im-
portance of family plots and privately owned cattle, it was assumed
that "other" employment would decline steadily from 3.7 million in
1959 to 3.1 million in 1965.
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B. Projections of Civilian Employment by Branch of the Economy,
1960-65
The projected change in nonagricultural employment equals the
change in workers and employees plus the projected increase in employ-
ment in producer cooperatives and kolkhoz industry. Agricultural
employment is a residual obtained by subtracting nonagricultural em-
ployment from total civilian employment.
The estimates of industrial employment were obtained by pro-
jecting the estimate of total industrial employment in 1959 by the
increase in employment (22 percent) implicit in goals for production
and productivity between 1958 and 1965. According to the Seven Year
Plan (1959-65) industrial production is to increase by 8o percent and
labor productivity in industry by about 47.5 percent between 1958 and
1965. Estimates for the intervening years were obtained by geometric
interpolation. The estimates of total employment in the category
Other Nonagriculture were made by subtracting the estimates of indus-
trial employment from the estimates of total nonagricultural employ-
ment.
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APPENDIX B
SOURCE REFERENCES
1. Pravda, 15 Jan 60.
2. Izvestiya, 31 Jan 59.
3. Pravda, 15 Jul 56.
4. Sotsialisticheskiy trud, no 1, 1960, p. 28.
5. Okhrana truda i sotsial'noye strakhovaniye, no 4, 1958, p. 12.
6. DeWitt, N. 'Upheaval in Education," Problems of Communism,
vol 1, no VIII, Jan-Feb 59.
7. Pravda, 29 May 56.
8. Ibid., 9 Sep 56.
9. Partiynaya zhizn', no 18, 1957, p. 58-60.
10. Yale Law Review, Jul 57, p. 1194.
11. USSR, Central Statistical Administration of the Council of
Ministers. Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 1958 godu (The
National Economy of the USSR in 1958), Moscow, 1959,
p. 658-659. (hereafter referred to as 1958 handbook).
USSR, Central Statistical Administration of the Council of
Ministers. SSSR v tsifrakh v 1959 godu (USSR in Figures in
1959), Moscow, 1960, p. 197-198.
12. 1958 Handbook (11, above), p. 467.
13. Pravda, 25 Dec 58.
14. Uchitel'skaya gazeta, ?22 Jan 59.
15. Ibid., 21 Nov 59.
16. Izvestiya, 8 Feb 59.
17. Pravda, 11 Jul 59.
18. Ibid., 20 Dec 58.
19. Sovetskaya Rossiya, 13 Aug 59.
20. Campbell, A.A., and Brackett, J.W. Estimates and Projections
of the Population of the USSR: 1950-76, Foreign Manpower
Research Office, US Bureau of the Census, May 59.
21. Izvestiya, 4 Feb 60.
22. 1958 Handbook (11, above), p. 806-807, 814-815, 830.
SSSR v tsifrakh v 1959 godu (11, above), p. 205-212.
23. Vestnik statistiki, no 6, 1956, p. 96.
24. 1958 Handbook (11, above), p. 840.
25. USSR, Central Statistical Administration of the Council of
Ministers. Kul'turnoye stroitel'stvo SSSR (Cultural Con-
struction in the USSR), Moscow, 1956, p. 205.
26. Izvestiya, 4 Feb 60.
27. 1958 Handbook (11, above), p. 694.
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28. Pravda, 24 Dec 58.
29. Ibid.
30. Uchitel'skaya gazeta, 25 Aug 59.
31. Professional'no-tekhnicheskoye obrazovaniye, no 8, Aug 58,
p. 1-6.
32. Pravda, 24 Dec 58.
33. 1958 Handbook (11, above), p. 836.
34. Ibid., p. 830, 836-837.
SSSR v tsifrakh v 1959 godu (11, above), p. 205-212.
35. Pravda, 24 Dec 58.
36. Ibid.
37. Ibid.
38. 1958 Handbook (11, above), p. 656.
SSSR v tsifrakh v 1959 godu (11, above), p. 197.
39. USSR, Central Statistical Administration of the Council of
Ministers. Zhenshchina v SSSR (Women in the USSR), Moscow,
1960, p. 31.
Pravda, 22 Jan 60.
4o. 1958 Handbook (11, above), p. 655.
USSR, Central Statistical Administration of the Council of
Ministers. Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 1956 godu (National
Economy of the USSR in 1956), Moscow, 1956, p. 202.
41. Weitzman, M.S., and Elias, A. Magnitude and Distribution of
Civilian Employment in the USSR: 1928-58, Foreign Manpower
Research Office, US Bureau of the Census (to be published in
1960).
42. Zhenshchina v SSSR (39, above), p. 42.
43. Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 1956 godu (40, above), p. 218.
44. 1958 Handbook (11, above), p. 656.
Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR v 1956 godu (40, above), p. 203.
USSR. Central Statistical Administration of the Council of
Ministers. SSSR v tsifrakh (USSR in Figures), Moscow, 1958.
p. 309.
SSSR v tsifrakh v 1959 godu (11, above), p. 196.
45. Leedy, F.A. Producers' Cooperatives in the Soviet Union,
Foreign Manpower Research Office, US Bureau of the Census,
1958, p. 7.
46. 1958 Handbook (11, above), p. 658-659.
SSSR v tsifrakh v 1959 godu (11, above), p. 197.
47. USSR, Central Statistical Administration of the Council of
Ministers. Sel'skoye khozyaystvo SSSR (Agriculture in the USSR),
Moscow, 1960, p. 450.
48. Ibid.
49. Schwalberg, B.K. Industrial Employment in the USSR: 1933,
1937, 1950, and 1955, Foreign Manpower Research Office, US
Bureau of the Census, 1960.
50. Pravda, 15 Jan 60.
40
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