PRODUCTION OF SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICES IN THE USSR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 36
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: November 1, 1959
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
SECRET
N? 3
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
PRODUCTION OF SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICES
IN THE USSR
CIA/RR 59-44
November 1959
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
PRODUCTION OF SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICES IN THE USSR
CIA/RR 59-44
CENTRAL INTPLLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
FOREWORD
This report represents an initial inquiry into production and
utilization of semiconductor devices in the USSR. The report explores
the extent and direction of the Soviet effort in semiconductor elec-
tronics and provides a comparison of Soviet and US economic capabil-
ities in this new and rapidly expanding sector of electronics tech-
nology.
The emphasis in this report is placed on production of audio- and
radio-frequency diodes and transistors, the semiconductor devices
which are rapidly acquiring great economic and strategic importance
as functional substitutes for electron tubes. The report thus pro-
vides a broad base for the assessment of future rates of growth in
the Soviet electronics industry
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
nx?I
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
CONTENTS
Page
Summary
1. Introduction
2. Production
1
3
5
a.
Past Production
5
b.
Quantity and Value
7
c.
Technology
11
d.
Plants
114.
3.
Use
15
a.
Transistors
15
b.
Diodes
16
Appendix A.
Appendixes
Use of Semiconductor Devices in General ? ? ?
Appendix B. Production Technology of Semiconductors
in General
Appendix C. Methodology
19
23
25
Tables
1. Approximate Dates of Introduction of Selected
Semiconductor Devices into Industrial-Scale Produc-
tion in the US and the USSR
6
2. Quantity of Production of Germanium and Silicon Semi-
conductor Devices in the US and the USSR, 1955-59 . . 6
- v -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
Page
3. Quantity of Production of Semiconductor Devices in the
USSR, 1950-59 8
4. Value of Production of Semiconductor Devices in the
USSR, 1950-59 9
- vi -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
PRODUCTION OF SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICES IN THE USSR*
Summary
In spite of intensive Soviet study of the basic physics of semi-
conductor devices,** the USSR consistently has lagged at least 2 to
4 years behind the US in production of these devices. This timelag
applies not only to quantities produced but also to introduction of
progressively more advanced devices. Although the timelag applies
most specifically to Soviet production of transistors, available data
indicate a similar timelag in production of germanium and silicon
diodes.
During 1958 the USSR produced approximately 24.5 million germanium
and silicon semiconductor devices*** compared with 132 million pro-
duced in the US during that year. Of these totals, transistors ac-
counted for 4.5 million units in the USSR and 47 million in the US.
Available information indicates that although US production of ger-
manium and silicon semiconductor devices in 1958 was more than five
* The estimates and conclusions in this report represent the best
judgment of this Office as of 1 August 1959.
** The term semiconductor device in relation to electronic compo-
nents refers to a solid-state device the function of which is based
on the electrical properties of materials that fall in the fourth
valence group in the periodic table of the elements or of binary al-
loys that exhibit similar properties. The semiconductor devices most
frequently used at present are designed for alternating current (ac)
rectification, for electronic switching, and for the detection or am-
plification of audio-frequency (af) or radio-frequency (rf) energy.
In these functions, such devices can accomplish many of the active
circuit functions which previously were performed only by electron
tubes.
*** In this report, primary emphasis is placed on the af and rf
diodes and triodes (transistors) produced from germanium or silicon,
the semiconductor devices Which have exhibited the most important
strategic and economic influence in the past few years. Brief con-
sideration also is given to the more conventional selenium, copper
oxide, and magnesium copper sulphide diodes. Semiconductor devices
operating on principles of sensitivity to light, heat, infrared, and
magnetic fields are not discussed specifically, because of the absence
of information on the production schedules for these devices. For a
more specific consideration of the use of semiconductor devices and
production technology, see Appendixes A and B, respectively.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
times that of the USSR in terms of physical units and more than six
times that of the USSR in terms of value, the projected rate of growth
in production of these devices is about the same. In 1958 the value of
production of all types of semiconductor devices was $26.7 million* in
the USSR and $228.7 million in the US. Present indications, therefore,
are that during the next 5 to 7 years the US will maintain a substan-
tial lead over the USSR in the quantity of production of semiconductor
devices. From the start of series production in mid-1956 to the spring
of 1959, however, the USSR has achieved relatively significant gains in
acquiring the materials, technology, plant facilities, labor skills,
and experience needed to produce on an industrial scale some newer
types of relatively sophisticated transistors and diodes and undoubtedly
will continue to make rapid progress in this field. Nevertheless, as
of early 1959 the USSR is believed to have remained materially behind
the US in the quality and diversity of the semiconductor devices pro-
duced as well as in the volume of production.
The USSR has been slow in incorporating the more important of its
semiconductor devices into finished equipment. The relatively unso-
phisticated germanium diodes have been used widely in television and
radio sets designed for entertainment and, at a time When production
goals for electron tubes were being underfulfilled consistently, were
a valuable supplement to production of electron tubes. Diodes have
been used also in electronic computers. In contrast to the use of
diodes in the USSR, however, Soviet progress in the application of
transistors has been slow and unimpressive. Open literature abounds
with descriptions of prototypes of a wide range of end items in which
transistors have been used, but actual production of such items has
been either nonexistent or negligible. Although the quantity and
quality of production of transistors in the USSR in 1958 would have
supported moderate levels of production of equipment using transistors
alone in place of tubes, these levels were not achieved. Even in
1959, When significant advances in both quantity and quality of pro-
duction apparently are occurring, there are no indications of the
large-scale use of transistors in finished equipment.
Similarly, there is no indication that any significant scale of
production has been achieved in specialized auxiliary electronic com-
ponents required for use with transistors. As a result, it is esti-
mated that at least by the end of 1958 most of the transistors pro-
duced in the USSR were being utilized within the Soviet electronics
industry itself for purposes of training and for development of proto-
types. On the basis of the introduction of silicon transistors and
more advanced germanium transistors in late 1958 and the achievement
of increased production by 1959, it is estimated that equipment which
* Dollar values are given in current US dollars throughout this report.
- 2 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
contains transistors and is of greater sophistication will be produced
on an industrial scale during 1959 and increasingly during the Seven
Year Plan (1959-65). Although the highest priority in the use of these
devices will be accorded to military applications, the plant production,
which inevitably includes a considerable quantity of medium-quality and
poor-quality units which do not meet the military specifications, will
make significant quantities available for use in less demanding indus-
trial applications and in consumer equipment, such as hearing aids and
radio receivers.
1. Introduction
Basically, production and utilization of semiconductor devices as
electronic components have been developed since World War II. In the
period before 1940, semiconductor devices were limited to a narrow
range of materials and devices used largely as ac rectifiers and as
devices sensitive to light and heat. Since the successful development
of triode elements capable of operating at audio and radio frequencies,
the rate of growth of this component sector of the electronics industry
has accelerated sharply in all countries that are major producers of
electronics.
So far the capability of the USSR in the development of semicon-
ductor devices has been studied almost exclusively from the purely
scientific and technical point of view,* inasmuch as the magnitude of
the Soviet production effort has been relatively small. Even in the
West, which has maintained a significant lead in production of semi-
conductor devices, no important aggregate economic effect was notice-
able until very recently. Since 1950, however, productive capacity of
the Soviet electronics industry has been expanding steadily, and since
about 1953 Soviet production capability in semiconductor devices has
begun to show vigorous growth.
The semiconductor devices most frequently used at present in elec-
tronic circuits are designed either to rectify, to amplify, or to de-
tect af and rf energy.** In these uses, such devices can accomplish
50X1
50X1
** In addition to these functions, devices employing other properties
of semiconductor materials are being used increasingly in such applica-
tions as the detection of light energy and magnetism, the direct con-
version of heat into electricity, and the extraction of heat by elec-
tricity.
- 3 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
many of the active circuit functions which previously were performed
only by electron tubes. Because of their extremely small size, de-
creased requirements for power, and higher efficiency, semiconductor
devices are frequently greatly superior to electron tubes. Although
the degree of substitution of semiconductor devices for electron tubes
is far from complete, the range of possibilities for substitution is
increasing continually.
The USSR has concerned itself deeply with the basic theory of
semiconductors and appears to have developed a high degree of com-
petence in this field. Soviet work in crystallography provides an
excellent background for the production of semiconductor devices.
The range of Soviet investigations with respect to basic material
apparently has been considerably broader in scope than the equivalent
work in the West, and the laboratory equipment which has been seen
by the Western visitors has been of excellent quality. 2/
In spite of the great emphasis in the USSR on scientific research
on semiconductors, present Soviet capabilities for production of
transistors and diodes are based primnrily on Western technological
developments and appear to lag behind Western practice by at least
2 to 4 years. Western production techniques in this field have been
described in detail in Western technical journals that are readily
available to Soviet workers in the field.
In the USSR as in the West, currently produced af and rf diodes
and transistors are made almost entirely from either germanium or
silicon. There is no evidence of shortages of basic raw materials
in the USSR. Soviet Donets coal contains a relatively high percent-
age of germanium, and silicon is one of the most abundant of the
elements. These basic raw materials, however, must be processed
very carefully by the manufacturer of crystal to achieve the desired
electrical properties. Unless this process is carried out under very
precise temperature and atmosphere controls, a low yield of usable
product is obtained, because of the wide spread of the parameters of
the crystal.
There is, nevertheless, some evidence of shortages of sufficiently
pure germanium for use by the Soviet producers of semiconductor de-
vices.
Germanium crystals reportedly are supplied to the electronics
industry by chemical plants in the USSR, primarily from the Kalinin
Coke and Byproducts Plant in Dnepropetrovsk. ig Soviet press comments
have indicated the need for improvements in both quantity and quality
of production. 5/
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
50X1
50X1
50X1
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
No information is available on Soviet capabilities
in production of silicon crystals. However, inasmuch as the first-
production-run silicon transistors were not produced in the USSR until
1958, it is estimated that industrial-scale production of silicon
crystals of the required purity for transistors was established only
recently.
A good approximate measure of the relative progress of the US and
Soviet electronics industries in substituting semiconductor devices
for electron tubes is a comparison of production of transistors and
receiving tubes, which, of the major categories, are most readily sub-
stituted for each other. In 1958 the US produced 397 million receiv-
ing tubes and 47 million transistors, whereas the USSR produced 94
million receiving tubes and 4.5 million transistors. Thus the US with
a production ratio of transistors to receiving tubes of 1 to 8 is sig-
nificantly ahead of the USSR, which has achieved a ratio of only 1 to 21.
2. Production
a. Past Production
Although the USSR has placed great emphasis on the basic study
of the structure and electrical characteristics of semiconductor ma-
terials for a number of years, Soviet initiation of industrial-scale
production of the more important types of electronic devices incor-
porating semiconductor materials has lagged consistently behind the
US, and Soviet devices have been based almost entirely on Western
technological achievements. A few examples of this timelag in pro-
duction of individual items are shown in Table 1.* A comparison of
production of semiconductor devices in the US and the USSR, in terms
of units, is shown in Table 2.** In 1958 the value of Soviet produc-
tion of all types of semiconductor devices was $26.7 million, whereas
the value of US production was $228.7 million.
Although germanium and silicon semiconductor diodes were first
produced during World War II in the US and other Western countries,
the USSR did not begin to produce these diodes until the late forties.
The first Soviet items produced were silicon point contact diodes
which were made on a laboratory scale in 1948. V Germanium point
contact diodes were not put into series production until 1953.ifj
These dates for Soviet production represent an extremely long timelag
compared with Western production. The first germanium junction diodes
were put into series production in the USSR in 1955, whereas comparable
Table 1 follows on p. 6.
** Table 2 follows on p. 6.
-5-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
50X1
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 1
Approximate Dates of Introduction
of Selected Semiconductor Devices
into Industrial-Scale Production in the US and the USSR
Device
US USSR
Germanium point contact diodes World War II 1953
Silicon point contact diodes World War II 1948
Germanium junction diodes 1951 1955
Silicon junction diodes 1954 1958
Germanium junction transistors 1952 1956
Silicon junction transistors 1954 1958
Germanium power junction transistors
(10 amperes) 1954 1958
Silicon power junction transistors 1956
Silicon high-speed switching diodes 1955 21
a. This semiconductor device is not available at present in the
USSR.
Table 2
Quantity of Production of Germanium
and Silicon Semiconductor Devices in the US and the USSR 2/
1955-59
Million Units
Type of Semi-
Date
conductor Device
US
USSR
1955
Transistors
3.6
Negligible
Diodes
20.0
1.2
1956
Transistors
12.8
0.6
Diodes
35.0
2.0
1957
Transistors
28.7
2.0
Diodes
45.0
7.0
1958
Transistors
47.1
4.5
Diodes
85.1
20.0
1959
Transistors
66.4 y
7.5
Diodes
103.1 y
30.0
a. For methodology, see Appendix C.
b. Projected.
- 6 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
units were in production in the US in 1951. 2/ In production of
silicon junction diodes, there was a comparable timelag: US produc-
tion started in 1954, whereas the first Soviet units appeared only
in late 1958. 12/
An important aspect of economic capability in production of
semiconductor devices which is not apparent from a simple statement
of the time sequence of the initiation of production of various cate-
gories of devices is the diversity of types which are available. The
large number of companies in the West Which produced these devices
have developed a large number of different types for which there are
no comparable Soviet units. Thus, for example, whereas the USSR pro-
duces one type of germanium transistor with a maximum frequency of
400 megacycles per second (mc/s), comparable performance is available
from Western producers for a number of different devices.
By choosing among the available types for the specific cir-
cuit application, much more efficient results are possible than would
obtain if only one type were available in a given frequency or power
category. Furthermore, at present there are a number of specific
types available in the West which are not produced on an industrial
scale in the USSR. High-power silicon transistors, which have been
available in the US since 1955, are not produced in the USSR. 11/
There are no high-speed switching devices being made at present in
the USSR, but these devices have been available for over 2 years
in the US. 12/ High-speed switching diodes are used widely in hie-1-
speed digital computers. There is as yet no indication of Soyiet
production of more advanced specialized diodes such as avalanche
types, diodes suitable for parametric amplifiers, and Esaki effect
diodes. Di
b. Quantity and Value
Before 1953 the vast majority of semiconductor devices pro-
duced in the USSR consisted of relatively small quantities of low-
power ac and af diode elements made from selenium, copper oxide, or
magnesium copper sulphide and used primarily in measuring and testing
instruments. Small quantities of germanium and silicon point con-
tact units were produced for developmental and limited operational
use in rf applications,. primarily in radar receivers. Estimates for
1950 through 1959 of quantity and value of production of the basic
types of semiconductor devices in the USSR are shown in Tables 3
and 4.*
* Tables 3 and 4 follow on pp. 8 and 9, respectively. (Text continued
on p. 10.)
- 7 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
DIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 : CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 3
Quantity of Production of Semiconductor Devices in the USSR 2/
1950-59
Thousand Units
Year
Diodes
Transistors
Total
Germanium and Silicon
Other 12/
Germanium
Silicon
1950
10
71
Negligible
0
81
1951
15
275
Negligible
0
290
1952
25
1,232
Negligible
0
1,257
1953
250
1,500
Negligible
0
1,750
1954
750
1,616
30
0
2,396
1955
1,250
2,050
6o
o
3,360
1956
2,000
3,000
600
o
5,600
1957
7,000
11,000
2,000
Negligible
20,000
1958
20,000
20,500
4,100
400
45,000
1959
30,000
25,500
6,000
1,500
63,000
a. For methodology, see Appendix C.
b. Believed to be composed largely of selenium, copper oxide, and magnesium copper sul-
phide devices for power rectification, movements of alternating current meters, audio
clippers, and similar uses.
- 8 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 : CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 : CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 4
Value of Production of Semiconductor Devices in the USSR 2/
1950-59
Million 1959 Rubles b/
Diodes
Year
Germanium and Silicon
Other 2/
Transistors
Total
1950
0.1
Negligible
Negligible
0.1
1951
0.1
0.2
Negligible
0.3
1952
0.2
o.8
Negligible
1.0
1953
2.0
1.0
Negligible
3.0
1954
6.1
1.0
0.5
7.6
1955
10.1
1.3
1.1
12.5
1956
16.2
1.9
lo.8
28.9
1957
56.7
7.0
36.0
99.7
1958
162.0
13.1
8i.o
256.1
1959
243.0
16.3
135.0
394.3
a. For methodology, see Appendix C.
b. Believed to be composed largely of selenium, copper oxide, and magnesium
copper sulphide devices for power rectification, movements of alternating
current meters, audio clippers, and similar uses.
- 9 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 : CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
Beginning in 1953, production of germanium and silicon diode
units was expanded rapidly. By 1955, these diodes still only con-
stituted about 37 percent of total semiconductor units produced,
whereas production of germanium and silicon diodes represented ap-
proximately 81 percent of the total value of production for that year.
Between 1955 and 1959 the rapid growth in production of these diodes
continued, although after 1955 the relative share of diodes in the
total value of production of semiconductor devices began to decline
because of the initiation of industrial-scale production of transistors
in 1956.
The early emphasis which was placed on production of germanium
and silicon diodes occurred at a time when there existed no evidence
of a priority requirement for these devices in the quantities produced.
It is believed that this production effort in diodes was planned as a
form of basic technical training for personnel and for the development
of materials and techniques to be used eventually in production of
transistors. This development of a production capability for medium-
quality diodes in excess of priority requirements is a possible ex-
planation of the Soviet practice, in effect since 1955, of incorporat-
ing these diodes into consumer entertainment equipment in instances in
which, in the West, economic considerations continue to dictate the
use of electron tubes.
It is estimated that germanium and silicon diodes will repre-
sent almost two-thirds of the total value of production of germanium
and silicon semiconductor devices during 1959. In 1959, Soviet prod-
uct mix of' diodes and transistors is approximating the product mix of
the US in 1955-56. In the US the value of production of germanium and
silicon diodes had fallen by 1958 to a level of approximately 46 per-
cent of the combined value of diodes and transistors.112/ This is a
possible indication that the Soviet rate of growth in transistors will
be expanded during the Seven Year Plan (1959-65) at a rate slightly
greater than that of semiconductor devices as a group.
Production of semiconductor devices in the USSR was at a very
elementary level when the goals for the Sixth Five Year Plan (1956-60)
were announced, and no plans for this type of device were announced.
During 1957, however, a production series for selected years between
1950 and 1957 and a plan goal for 1960 was provided. 12/ This goal
stipulated production in 1960 of all types of semiconductor devices
of 30 million units, a figure approximately 9 times that of 1955. By
1958 it was apparent that production of semiconductor devices was
being expanded at an annual rate considerably in excess of that which
was required to achieve the original goals for 1960, and information
received during'1958 and 1959 indicates that production in 1960 prob-
ably will be between two and three times the original goals of the
Sixth Five Year Plan (1956-60). ig
-10-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
In spite of this degree of success in the past few years and
in spite of the apparent priority of support which still is being
accorded production of semiconductor devices, the projected rate of
growth for the Seven Year Plan is relatively modest. The level of
production in 1965 is to be approximately 10 times that of 1958,
whereas this same rate of growth had been achieved over the previous
3-year period. 12/ It is estimated that the USSR will easily be able
to achieve its goals in terms of units and that, within this growth,
production of transistors will grow at a slightly faster rate than
the production of other categories of semiconductors. As a result,
the value of production in 1965 of this component sector of the
electronics industry, in terms of constant prices, will be more than
10 times the value of production in 1958.
The apparent future Soviet rate of growth in production and
use of transistors, when compared with actual progress in the US
and other countries outside the Sino-Soviet Bloc is surprisingly low.
When viewed in relation to any realistic estimate of economically
desirable Soviet applications in both the military and civilian sec-
tor of the economy, this rate of growth indicates the continuing
presence of production problems.
c. Technology
As in many other instances involving Soviet development and
production of modern types of electronic components, the initial ef-
forts were devoted almost exclusively to production of crude copies
of Western designs in numbers only sufficient to meet the most urgent
Soviet needs. In the instance of germanium and silicon semiconductor
devices the top Soviet priority was assigned, in the period shortly
after World War II, to production of very high frequency (VHF) point
contact diodes for use in radar receivers. The limited quantities of
such devices which were required were apparently being produced suc-
cessfully, probably on a laboratory scale, before 1950; and no dif-
ficulties have been Observed in production in recent years in either
the quantity or the quality of devices for radar receivers. The at-
tempts to initiate industrial-scale production of even a limited
number of other types of semiconductor devices were not successful
until the latter part of the Fifth Five Year Plan, and the majority
of these types were of substandard quality compared with the quality
of similar types of devices being produced in a number of Western
countries at that time.
- 11-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
DIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
50X1
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
Soviet technical literature has frequently contained criti-
cisms of the quality of semiconductor devices being produced. One
of the more thorough assessments of the levels of quality reached
as of the beginning of 1956 was contained in a statement by
V.I. Siforov, a leading Soviet specialist in semiconductor devices.
Siforov characterized the existing levels of production of semi-
conductor devices as inadequate because of the following reasons:
(1) wide spread in technical parameters, (2) instability of the
technical parameters, (3) high noise characteristics, (4) low
cutoff frequency, and (5) limited range of operating temperature. 21V
Samples of a considerable number of Soviet semiconductor de-
vices have been received and tested since 1956. The results of most
of these tests have indicated that the general quality of Soviet de-
vices, except for a few types of diodes, remained unsatisfactory at
least through 1957. 152/ Soviet devices received and tested during
the latter part of 1958 and early 1959 indicate that the USSR has
achieved a moderate degree of success in overcoming some of the limi-
tations mentioned by Siforov. These devices, however, are not yet
representative of a good broad-front industrial technology in this
field and are technically far below the highest US technical levels.
The best Soviet samples indicate a capability not far behind the US
in the technical quality of low-power germanium VHF transistors.
There is no indication of the Soviet rate of production of this type,
and the mounting employed is unnecessarily complicated and difficult
to put successfully into mass production. 22/ The frequency and
power capabilities of the Soviet devices do not match those produced
in the US, and in Soviet silicon transistors the capabilities are
far below those of the better US varieties.
Tests of other samples of diodes and transistors received in
1958 and 1959 indicate that the present Soviet production 'technology,
although definitely better than technology in 1956, has failed to
achieve levels which would place this Soviet industry in any way close
to the better of the Western nations. In two of the areas cited by
Siforov (noise and frequency characteristics), definite improvements
have been made. Improvements probably also have occurred in reducing
the wide spread of technical parameters of devices which have been
in production for a year or more. Many of the devices tested still
suffer from the degradation of electrical characteristics following
their exposure to even nominal extremes of temperature and humidity
and indicate that the instability of the technical parameters con-
tinues to be a problem. 21/
The improvements in Soviet
devices which have been noted in the areas of maximum operating
- 12 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
50)(1
50X1
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
frequency, maximum frequency-power combination, and maximum operat-
ing temperatures have been more than offset by Western developments
during this period. In addition, a major Soviet timelag at present
lies in the relatively small variety of types which are in production.
The limitation Which results from this limited variety is believed
to exert a severe restriction on the use of semiconductor devices in
many areas of communications, control, and data processing.
A qualitative timelag in the production technology is indi-
cated also by the absence in the USSR of official standards against
which semiconductor devices can be measured. Such standards have
not been published for any semiconductor device, although there is
an indication that standards for some of the types which have been
in production for several years will be forthcoming during 1959. Qi
One of the primary reasons for the continuing Soviet
difficulty in the mass production of high-quality semiconductor
devices probably lies in the very low level of mechanization which
exists in this field in the USSR.
in tne Ub some ?I -une more
critical operations and processes determining the quality of the
finished product are carried out automatically to reduce the varia-
tions in tolerances which result from human control. Many of these
operations still are carried out manually in the USSR.
From the above discussion it is apparent that, in spite of
vigorous Soviet efforts in this field, only moderate achievements
have been noted, particularly when Soviet successes are matched by
more recent Western gains in this field. Thus, although the Soviet
devices of higher quality now being produced indicate that in forth-
coming years the electronics industry will begin to incorporate
significant numbers of diodes and transistors in operational equip-
ment, additional qualitative achievements must be made by this Soviet
industry to enable the USSR to gain the full measure of advantage of
semiconductor devices in the more critical weapons systems for which
-13-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
".;IA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
50X1
50X1
50X1
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
extremes of temperature, vibration, and shock exist. The limitations
of quality of Soviet devices probably will be felt most severely in
the next few years in the fields of electronics for missiles and air-
craft.
d. Plants
The major Soviet producer of semiconductor devices, particu-
larly transistors, is believed to be the Svetlana Electron Tube Plant
in Leningrad. This plant is the only known location of production of
transistors in the USSR, although Soviet officials have stated that
there is at least one other plant which is producing transistors in
1959 and veiled references in the press as early as 1957 indicated
that limited production of transistors may have been taking place
outside the Svetlana plant at that time. El/ It is believed, however,
that production of transistors on an industrial scale was limited to
the Svetlana plant until at least in the latter part of 1958, when
new production facilities may have come into being elsewhere. Expan-
sion of production of transistors is still taking place at the Svetlana
plant although the plan goals for that plant are significantly less
than the goals for the industry as a whole.*
Soviet facilities for producing other types of semiconductor
devices are being rapidly increased at present, both by expanding
present plants and by putting new facilities into production. Even-
tually, production of transistors may take place also in some of
these plants. During the latter part of 1958 it was announced that
three new plants for semiconductor devices were being built and soon
would be put into operation. By December of that year, one of these
new plants, in Tallin, Estonia, began the series production of semi-
conductor photodiodes and varistors. Two additional plants, one
located in the Armenian SSR and one in Mordovskaya ASSR, were
to begin production in 1958 or 1959. 2L3/ The Tashkent Electric Bulb
Plant began the mass production of semiconductor devices in 1958.
One other plant in Uzbek SSR, the Samarkand Cinema Apparatus Plant,
is engaged in production of semiconductor devices, although this pro-
duction may be limited to selenium rectifiers. 22/ The Moscow Equip-
ment Plant was reported to be producing selenium diodes in 1956, but
there is no indication that germanium or silicon units have yet been
produced in this plant. 12/ The Saransk Electro-Rectifier Plant is
reported to be producing germanium diodes. 11/
Although the information above indicates that a substantial
effort is taking place in the USSR to improve and expand Soviet capa-
bility to produce semiconductor devices, the lack of detailed infor-
mation on plant facilities precludes the possibility of assessing
* For information on the planned expansion at the Svetlana plant,
see Appendix C.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
the goals for 1965 on this basis. The fact that the initial goal of
the Seven Year Plan for production of semiconductor devices was later
revised downward by a substantial margin may be an indication that
some of the originally planned investment will not take place.*
3. Use
The theoretically possible uses of Soviet semiconductor devices
cover an extremely wide range from the most simple af uses such as
hearing aids to extremely complex applications such as computers,
pulse circuitry, and telemetering instrumentation. In .addition,
there is a whole class of special applications, including the Hall
effect and parametric amplifiers, that have been mentioned very little
in the Soviet literature. 1V In time, semiconductor devices will
have an important effect on the entire Soviet electronics industry.
In an increasing number of specialized fields such as those of guided
missiles, airborne electronic equipment, scientific research instru-
mentation, and programs for earth satellite vehicles and in the field
of electronic computers the effect of semiconductor devices will be
revolutionary. The miniaturization, ruggedization, and economy of
semiconductor devices undoubtedly will create a rapidly rising demand
in the USSR for production of these items and their use in these pro-
grams.
a. Transistors
In spite of the many potential uses for transistors, there is
relatively little Soviet equipment using transistors which has been
completed through the prototype stage. Of this equipment, none can
be identified positively as being in series production. Experimental
designs have been developed and discussed in the press for equipment
ranging from simple hearing aids and portable radios to some more ad-
vanced items such as television sets and computers. In the fall of
1958, however, the literature contained numerous complaints that al-
though transistorized receivers had been developed and widely publi-
cized, they were not available in the stores. .31Y Recent information
indicates that virtually all transitors currently produced are allo-
cated to military organizations. The majority of these transistors
probably are used in programs of military research and development.
There is no evidence of actual use of transistors in military equipment
at present. One relatively limited end item which is scheduled to go
* Originally it was announced that production of semiconductor de-
vices in 1965 was to be from 13 to 14 times the production in 1958.
Subsequent announcements, plus statements of Soviet industry officials,
have indicated that this plan has been revised and that production in
1965 is planned at present to be only 10 times that in 1958. .a.V
-15-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22:
.01A-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
into series production in the near future is the transistor analog
computer model MN-10. 15/ A few transistors can be purchased on the
open market of the USSR, but manufactured products containing tran-
sistors apparently are not available. 1.6i Even as late as November
1958, Soviet experts continued to speak of the "fascinating" prospects
offered by the initial introduction of semiconductor devices into
industry. 17/ The list of planned uses of transistors in the USSR
compared with the theoretical possibilities of the devices is still
very unimpressive.
Two possible reasons may be advanced for the lack of Soviet
production of equipment utilizing transistors. The first reason is
that the volume of transistors required within the industry for re-
search and development and for training engineers in their use has
probably been so large that most of the available units were required
for this purpose at least through 1958. The second reason is prob-
ably the relatively poor quality of Soviet transistors, compared with
US units, until the end of 1958. In 1959, Soviet progress in both
quality and quantity of transistors probably has resulted in increases
in their use in finished equipment. The quantity of production of
transistors in the USSR was only about 10 percent as large as corres-
ponding US production in 1958 and is increasing at roughly the same
rate as US production. In spite of this quantitative timelag, the
USSR apparently is moving rapidly in acquiring technological competence
in production of at least limited numbers of VHF germanium units and
some silicon transistors. 38/ It is believed, therefore, that the
USSR within the next 2 years will initiate production of several types
of transistorized end items, including some of the more sophisticated
military types, which contain transistors. These end items will in-
corporate substantial numbers of domestically produced transistors.
This development will offset to a limited extent the lagging produc-
tion of standard electron ttbes which has been noticed since 1955.
b. Diodes
The most common of the semiconductor diodes is the germanium
point contact diode. This device has a wide range of applications,
primarily as rectifying, gating, and clamping devices operating at
relatively low currents and voltages. These units are used widely
in the USSR in television sets and computers. It has been stated
that the instrumentation of Sputnik III contained 4,00o semiconductor
devices, and in all probability these were predominantly germanium
point contact diodes. The USSR uses more germanium point contact
diodes in consumer radios and television sets than are used in com-
parable Western designs. Point contact silicon diodes are devices
which operate at very low voltages and currents and are used mainly as
mixers in the microwave frequency bands -- in radar and microwave re-
lay receivers.
-16-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
1
S-E-C-R-E-T
The junction diodes are more recent developments than the
point contact diodes, and Soviet applications are still mainly in
the developmental stage. Technically, the junction diodes having
a large current-handling capacity are limited in use to the lower
portion of the frequency spectrum. The reverse conduction charac-
teristics of the silicon diodes is also used as a direct current
voltage regulator or ac peak level control device (Zener diode).
Soviet production of silicon junction diodes, which began in 1958,
should result in their wide use as highly efficient miniature sub-
stitutes for electron tube rectifier and regulator tubes. The
junction diodes available in quantity in the USSR at present do not
yet include either those with capability for very high voltage or
those with switching characteristics for very high speed.112/ Pro-
duction of the latter type in particular will be necessary for high-
speed, compact computers and for advanced devices such as parametric
amplifiers.
-17-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
APPENDIX A
USE OF SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICES IN GENERAL
1. Advantages
The most obvious and best publicized advantage of semiconductor
devices in general over conventional circuit elements lies in the
size of the semiconductor devices. The typical transistor is ap-
proximately two orders of magnitude smaller than the electron tube
that it can replace. Transistors are extremely valuable where minia-
turization of electronic equipment is a consideration. Because the
power requirements are decreased by use of transistors and the ef-
ficiency of the circuit is thereby increased, the temperature rise
in the equipment containing transistors is significantly less than
that of equipment containing electron tubes. There has been insuf-
ficient elapsed time to evaluate adequately the life expectancy of
semiconductor devices, but there is every indication that the service
life of the devices will be at least 10 times that of electron tubes.
An additional characteristic of semiconductor devices is their in-
herent ability to function under conditions of severe shock and vi-
bration. They are thus extremely valuable in mobile, airborne, and
missile borne applications. Furthermore, in the case of transistors,
the low voltages required for operation make them ideal for the usual
mobile or battery installations. The combination of the character-
istics noted above also contributes to the suitability of semicon-
ductor devices for use in printed circuit and modular construction.
2. Possibilities and Limitations of Substitution
At the present state of the art in both the US and USSR, one of
the widest areas of substitution of semiconductor devices for elec-
tron tubes is in uses in which the functions can be accomplished in-
dependently of power levels. In such uses, transistors and semi-
conductor diodes make ideal circuit elements. One obvious il-
lustration of this use is in the field of electronic computers where
the functioning of the computer is substantially a process of pulse
counting, an operation which can be performed independently of the
power level. It is unimportant whether one counts 2-volt pulses,
20-volt pulses, or 100-volt pulses: the basic requirement is that
of reliability. This reliability can be achieved at levels of rela-
tively low voltage by transistors and the size of the computer
greatly decreased relative to a comparable electron tube computer.
-19-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
Another large class of functions performed by electron tubes
consists basically of linear amplification of signals at low-power
levels. Capability of transistors in this function creates favor-
able possibilities for substitution of transistors for electron
tubes in radio receivers and af equipment; low-power transmitters
and oscillators; and line communications equipment, including those
using various multiplexing techniques. Semiconductor devices are
very effective and very efficient also as telecommunications switch-
ing elements, direct current (dc) to dc converters, variable motor
controls, and units performing functions of voltage regulation. Re-
search within the past year in the US indicates that semiconductor
devices soon will be used widely in parametric amplifiers, permitting
signal amplification with extremely low noise figures in the VHF and
ultrahigh frequency (UHF) region.
The limitations on substitution are discussed in terms of present
US development in the field of semiconductor devices. These limita-
tions can be categorized best as temperature, power, frequency, and
noise. For example, present technical capabilities of a germanium
transistor limit operation and storage to a maximum temperature of
approximately 1000 centigrade (C), whereas for silicon units the
maximum temperature may be increased to approximately 200? C. This
relationship to temperature places considerable restrictions on the
use of transistors, particularly germanium transistors, in military
equipment. Present indications are that other semiconductor materials,
such as gallium arsenide, indium phosphide, and silicon carbide will
have to be used to attain maximum operating temperatures in the range
of from 200? to 700? C.
The second important consideration is that present technology per-
mits operation of relatively high-power levels only in the low-
frequency range. Power outputs in the order of 1 kilowatt or more
are possible in the af and the supersonic frequency spectra at
present, but the power capabilities are much more limited as fre-
quency increases. The present state of the art permits power out-
puts on the order of 5 watts at 20 mc/s in the high frequency spectra
and power outputs on the order of 1 watt at 100 mc/s in the VHF
spectra, and the present operational limit of operation of transistors
is on the order of 1,000 mc/s. A further limitation is placed on use
of a semiconductor device by the internally generated noise of the
device. The noise figures obtainable with transistors in the high
frequency and VHF regions, when operated as simple amplifying de-
vices, are not as good as those of the better electron tubes, but with
the use of semiconductor diodes in parametric amplifiers it is be-
lieved that semiconductor devices eventually will be superior to elec-
tron tubes and widely used in the VHF and UHF regions.
- 20 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
On the economic side the cost of semiconductor devices is still
higher than that of electron tubes, but even where cost is of little
importance the basic limitations of the devices are such that elec-
tron tubes will remain in wide use. There is every expectation that
in time the cost will be competitive and the relative performance
characteristics will determine whether semiconductor devices or elec-
tron tubes are used. At present in the US the relative costs are
such that in a number of uses (particularly uses in which avail-
ability of power supply, limitations in size, or problems of reli-
ability must be considered) semiconductor devices are being substi-
tuted very widely for electron tubes. For some years now, production
of the hearing aid industry has been almost completely converted to
models containing transistors, and in the case of personal portable
radios the trend has been very strong toward the transistor models.
Automobile radios also have tended toward increasing the use of tran-
sistors, but the relative costs have prevented complete conversion
to transistors. In consumer goods, the decision to use transistors
has to a very large extent been determined by relative costs. In the
instance of military equipment, however, the advantages in size,
service life, reliability, and efficiency have been given the greater
weight. In spite of the relatively few military types available and
the inadequate data on reliability, there has been a constantly in-
creasing volume of military equipment containing transistors. The
beginning of very-large-scale production of military equipment con-
taining transistors is beginning in the US in 1959, and continually
increasing quantities of production are planned for 1960611..
- 21 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
APPENDIX B
PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY OF SEMICONDUCTORS IN GENERAL
Between the groups of "conductors" and "insulators" in general
there are the transitional elements designated the group of the semi-
conductors. These semiconductors are found in the fourth valence
group of the periodic table of the elements. Practical possibilities
also exist for production of intermetallic compounds which will ex-
hibit similar physical properties. Such materials would be compounds
of elements of either the third and fifth group or the second and
sixth group of the periodic table. Almost all semiconductor devices
currently being produced are made from the elements germanium and
silicon rather than compounds, although considerable research and de-
velopment currently is taking place on compounds such as gallium
arsenide, indium phosphide, and silicon carbide.*
Current technical processes are concentrated on production of
germanium and silicon as the primary semiconductors. Both these
elements are used in their crystalline form. The technical processes
require production of crystals of extremely high purity for use as
the basic raw materials for semiconductor devices because the elec-
trical characteristics of the devices are critically dependent on
the quality of the raw material.
The basic material germanium normally is Obtained as a byproduct
of the smelting of zinc or lead or from flue dust of certain coals.
The germanium goes through a refining process to purify further the
material and to convert it to a crystalline form. This process in-
volves zone refining of the material according to standards of ex-
tremely high purity. Precise quantities of other materials then may
be added to achieve the desired electrical properties. Neither the
US nor the USSR has a basic problem of raw materials. Within the
USSR the Donets coal contains a relatively high percentage of ger-
manium. The germanium crystals used by the Soviet transistor plants
are obtained from the chemical industry and are grown in the Kalinin
Coke and Byproducts Plant in Dnepropetrovsk.
In production of a typical alloy junction transistor the ger-
manium crystal is first sliced into thin wafers, and these wafers
then are diced so that the basic unit of the device is a small piece
* One US organization currently is producing a gallium arsenide
reference diode for applications at very high temperature (325? C).
-23-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
of germanium roughly 1/10 of an inch square and less than 20 thousandths
of an inch thick. These dice then are lapped and etched to precisely
controlled thickness and finish. The junction dots, which supply a
rigidly controlled quantity of the appropriate chemical impurities to
produce the desired electrical properties of the transistor, then are
placed on the centers of the dice and are alloyed.to the germanium in
a precisely controlled alloying oven. The resulting units then are
tested, mounted, cleaned, and sealed. The finished transistors are
tested and sorted according to various electrical characteristics.
Although the mounting in a relatively low-power unit is less
critical, in high-power units some type of heat sink provisions must
be made. In general, the higher the requirements of the finished
component in terms of frequency and amplification capability the
higher will be the requirements for purity of basic material, careful
control of production, and fine tolerances in the mounting and packag-
ing. Even within the field of the relatively common af or medium
frequency transistors, it is difficult to keep the characteristics of
finished product reasonably close together in most production opera-
tions. This problem is avoided to a certain extent by classification
of the end items rather than by production control. At the end of a
transistor line the producer commonly still obtain transistors which
will be labeled with more than one type-designation, depending on
the characteristics of the finished product. Initial Soviet produc-
tion of the P-1 junction transistor resulted in seven different suf-
fixes for units with different parameters. For maximum utility the
parameter spread in any of the types must be relatively small, or a
significant percentage of the achievable gain must be sacrificed in
the circuit design of the stabilization networks. The mounting, pro-
tecting, and sealing operations critically affect the ruggedness and
reliability of the finished product. Secure mounting, protective coat-
ing of high quality, and good hermetic sealing are all necessary for
reliability and long life.
The productive process is substantially the same in the case of
silicon transistors, but there is at least one difference. Although
raw material is abundantly available, the purification of silicon is
more difficult than the purification of germanium, and Soviet progress
in this field has been relatively slow. Other materials for use in
semiconductor devices are at present largely in the research and de-
velopment stage both in the West and in the USSR.
- 24 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
APPENDIX C
METHODOLOGY
1. Total Production
Estimates of the total quantity of semiconductor devices produced
in the USSR through 1957, as shown in Table 3,* were obtained from the
production time series officially announced in the Soviet press. 41/
The estimate for 1958 was derived by using the geometric mean be-
tween the rate of growth for 1957 and the annual rate of growth im-
plied by the Seven Year Plan (1959-65). The resulting figure indi-
cates production in 1958 which was 2.25 times production in 1957.
On the basis of the plan goals most recently announced, it was esti-
mated that production of semiconductor devices in 1965 will be 10
times that in 1958, an estimate which implies an average annual rate
of growth of 39 percent. 1-2/ This rate of growth represents a reduc-
tion in the plan goal announced earlier for this industry, for which
planned production for 1965 was from 13 to 14 times that in 1958. -
The rate established by the later information is estimated to be with-
in the capabilities of the USSR. This rate was applied to the esti-
mate for 1958 to obtain the estimate for 1959. The announced series
contains information on the aggregate production of semiconductor
diodes and transistors, and is estimated to include substantial num-
bers of the relatively simpler selenium, copper oxide, and magnesium
copper sulphide rectifier diodes as well as germanium and silicon
diodes and transistors. It is possible that other devices such as
solar cells, Hall effect elements, photosensitive elements, and so
on also may be included in the announced totals. The quantity of
these devices produced up to the present, however, is estimated to
be negligible from an economic point of view. The series announced
for aggregate production has been published and discussed several
times in the Soviet press and by Soviet officials in their discus-
sions with Western specialists. The announced series is believed to
be reliable although its value is lessened by the ambiguity of the
products covered. A critical consideration of the economic effect of
production of semiconductor devices requires that this series be
broken down further into estimates of the produced quantities of
transistors, germanium and silicon diodes, and other diodes.
For a breakdown of this series into these three basic types of
semiconductor devices, there are four indicators which apply in vary-
ing degrees to the estimates of transistors and germanium and silicon
* P. 8, above.
-25 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
.7,1A-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
diodes. The first of these indicators consists either of plant in-
formation or of statements by Soviet officials which indicate the
approximate percentage of the total series which represents tran-
sistors.
The second general indicator is found in specific announcements
in technical journals concerning specifications of devices available
to the Soviet engineers. These publications provide information on
the technical characteristics of diodes and transistors as they be-
come available and thus provide an excellent indicator of the time
sequencing of the important aspects of production of semiconductor
devices.
A third indicator of the state of the art in both production and
utilization of semiconductors devices, also provided by technical
publications, is found in articles concerned with specific applica-
tions of various types of devices. Such publications have included
both general articles on operation of the semiconductor devices and
specific examples of semiconductor device circuitry. The relative
sophistication of the articles and the quality of the semiconductor
devices necessary for the indicated use provide valuable insights in-
to the state of Soviet production and use of semiconductor devices.
The fourth indicator is particularly important as a measure of
progress in production of end items using particular semiconductor
devices. This indicator lies in the area of production of auxiliary
components for semiconductor device circuitry. Because of the dif-
ferent voltages, power, and impedances at which semiconductor de-
vices operate, the components necessary for use with semiconductor
devices must be considerably different from those used in standard
electron tube equipment. These components must be available in order
to obtain the full measure of advantage in the relative size of these
devices compared with electron tubes. At a minimum the efficient use
of semiconductor devices requires considerably modified components
and ideally calls for a completely new family of miniaturized low-
voltage and low-power,components. The quantity of production of such
components is therefore a strong indicator of the extent to which
semiconductor devices, particularly transistors, actually are being
incorporated into finished equipment.
The derivation of the estimates of quantity and value for each
of the three basic types of semiconductor devices currently produced
in the USSR is discussed in greater detail in the following sections
of this appendix.
-26-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
2. Quantity of Production
a. Transistors
Shortly following the announcement of the US invention of the
transistor, the USSR published a brief summary of characteristics of
transistors, but further data for immediately subsequent years are
almost totally lacking. The first indication of series production
of transistors, both junction and point contact types, was contained
in the publication of detailed data on these types of products in
mid-1956. La/ This indication of initial production was substan-
tiated further by the announcement in June 1956 of the initiation of
series production of transistors in the Svetlana Electron Tube Plant
in Leningrad. 44/ This announcement marks the first industrial-scale
series production of transistors in the USSR. The literature from
that time to the present has included articles indicating an increas-
ing sophistication in transistor electronics. During 1957 the develop-
ment and initiation of production of other types of transistors and the
initiation of production of high-frequency transistors occurred. The
beginning of series production of semiconductor devices by the experi-
mental-production division of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences was
announced in 1956, but subsequent to this announcement there has been
no indication that transistors have been produced at this location. )12/
In view of the announcement mentioned above it is estimated
that production of transistors was an extremely nominal portion of the
production time series before 1956 and consisted of experimental models
produced in laboratory or trial run quantities. Production of tran-
sistors in 1956 is estimated to have been approximately 600,000 units.
This estimate is based on the estimated capacity of the Svetlana Elec-
tron Tube Plant, the only plant believed to have reached industrial-
scale production at that time. The 1957 estimate of 2 million tran-
sistors was obtained from a Soviet official on a visit to the US during
1957 14:Y and was confirmed by another Soviet official during 1958.
This production is believed to have been the approximate capacity of
the Svetlana plant during 1957, given a higher level of efficiency
than during the initial 6 months of production. This quantity of
production represented barely a minimum requirement for use in ex-
periment, research, and development and would not represent a capa-
bility to incorporate transistors in any substantial quantities into
military, industrial, or civilian end items.
The estimates for production of transistors and product mix of
germanium and silicon transistors in the USSR for 1958 and 1959 were
based on indications of production of the Svetlana Electron Tube Plant
-27-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
obtained in April 1959. ilf./ This information indicated that
production of transistors at the Svetlana plant in the first few
months of 1959 was at a rate of approximately 500,000 per month.
Because production of transistors at this plant still is expanding
rapidly this rate is believed to be somewhat higher than the 1958
average monthly rate but lower than the final average monthly rate
which will obtain for this plant in 1959. On the basis of this rate
it is estimated that only approximately 4.5 million transistors were
produced in 1958 at the Svetlana plant and that production during
1959 will be approximately 7 million. Although the estimate for
1958 applies only to the Svetlana plant it is believed to represent
virtually all of the industrial-scale production of transistors in
the USSR. Limited production of special types of transistors un-
doubtedly takes place at research institutes and design bureaus, and
it was reported in early 1959 that at least one other plant, unidenti-
fied, now is producing transistors./ It is believed that such
production is still only on a limited scale and probably will not
provide more than an additional 0.5 million units during 1959. Total
production in 1959 is therefore estimated at approximately 7.5 million
units. Production estimates for years later than 1959 have not been
possible from information available at this time. Figures from the
Seven Year Plan have been announced only for production of all types
of semiconductor devices, specifying a level of production in 1965
which is to be 10 times that of 1958. Since 1954 the rate of growth
for transistors has been approximately the same as that for semi-
conductor devices as a group, but there is no firm basis for estimat-
ing that such a correlation will hold in the future. Information
exists which implies that production of the Svetlana plant in 1965
will be only three to five times that in 1958. LO./ During this period
new plant facilities are expected to come into production, but produc-
tion to be achieved by these plants cannot be determined as yet.
b. Germanium and Silicon Diodes
The initial years of the Soviet production series for germanium
and silicon diodes was estimated on the basis of fragmentary data on
the production schedules of plants which produced semiconductor devices.
Estimated rates of growth were projected from the earlier data on the
basis of indications of the amount of use of these units in Soviet pro-
duction of end items. There are no indications that germanium and
silicon diodes were used to any appreciable extent in the USSR before
1953, except for rf mixer diodes in UHF and VHF military electronic
equipment, primarily radar. This lack of use of diodes is reflected
in the estimates for 1950 through 1952. After 1953 these devices
were used on an increasing scale in various types of military and in-
dustrial electronic equipment and in civilian entertainment equip-
ment. 21/ In 1953 the Soviet journal Radio published the first data
- 28 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
on domestically produced germanium diodes in the DG-Tl to DG-T8
series, but it was not until 1954 that there was very wide dissemi-
nation of detailed data on the use of these diodes. 2/ These were
germanium point contact diodes, and it was not until 1956 that tech-
nical data were provided and series production was announced for ger-
manium junction diodes. 21/ Although the point contact silicon types
of diodes were the first diodes produced in the USSR it was only in
1958 that reference was made openly in the press to production of
silicon junction diodes. This reference was contained in an announce-
ment that the Leningrad Sovnarkhoz (Sovet Narodnogo Khozyaystva --
Council of National Economy) would begin production of silicon diodes
in 1958. 2)2/
Because there is less specific information available on pro-
duction of germanium and silicon diodes than there is on transistors,
the estimates of unit production of these diodes are considered less
exact than the estimates for transistors. It should be noted in this
connection, however, that production of germanium and silicon diodes
often is used as a form of basic technical training for personnel and
for the development of materials to be used eventually in production
of transistors. It may be expected, therefore, that the rate of in-
crease in production of these diodes in the initial years of develop-
ment of transistors can be correlated with later production of tran-
sistors. Although diodes are used extensively in electronic equip-
ment both with electron tubes and ferrite circuit elements, there is
also a wide variety of uses in which they are used in conjunction with
transistors. Computers containing transistors provide an excellexit
example of a combined use of transistors and semiconductor diodes.
Semiconductor diodes are thus complementary to transistors in some
circuit applications and are used with electron tubes in other cir-
cuit applications. In an expanding electronics industry the rate of
growth for production of diodes will be somewhat greater than that
for transistors. A comparison of the rates of growth of each type
of semiconductor device is provided in Table 3.*
c. Other Diodes
Although the majority of germanium and silicon diodes are
those which incorporate a relatively less complex production tech-
nology and generally are used in less critical applications than the
other Soviet semiconductor devices considered in this report, no con-
crete indication of the quantities produced has become available from
either the Soviet press or other sources. Therefore, this series of
diodes has been derived as a residual of the official aggregate series
after the estimated production of germanium and silicon diodes and
triodes was subtracted.
* P. 8, above.
-29-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
3. Value of Production
Value of Soviet production of semiconductor devices in 1959
rubles, shown in Table 4,* was derived as follows.
a. Transistors
It is estimated that 1956 was the first year in which the
scale of production of transistors in the USSR would permit any cor-
relation between the cost of production and the sales price of the
unit. Initial production basically constitutes an investment de-
signed to develop technology in both production and use of the de-
vices. Between 1956 and 1959 the average factory cost per unit in
current rubles** for Soviet transistors was reduced from 30 rubles
to 18 rubles. Soviet officials have stated that unit cost will be
reduced to approximately 15 rubles in the near future. 22/ The
average factory cost of transistors in 1959, 18 rubles, was applied
to the estimate of units produced to obtain the value series in 1959
prices, and a logarithmic projection giving a price in 1958 of 21.3
rubles was used in computing the 1958 value.
b. Germanium and Silicon Diodes
In the absence of data relating to average cost of produc-
tion for diodes, it was necessary to derive a 1959 ruble-dollar ratio
based on cost of production of transistors and to assume that the
same relative efficiency of production was applicable also to pro-
duction of semiconductor diodes. The average factory cost of pro-
duction of transistors in the US in 1959 is approximately $2.53 per
unit. 2g If this cost is compared with the Soviet average cost (18
rubles per unit) a ruble-dollar ratio of 7.1 to 1 is obtained. The
US average 1959 factory cost of production for germanium and silicon
diodes is $1.14 per unit. 2/ This cost implies an average ruble
cost of approximately 8.1 rubles per unit. This cost was applied to
the estimate of units produced to obtain the value series.
c. Other Diodes
To derive the Soviet value of production for selenium, copper
oxide, and magnesium copper sulphide cells a procedure was followed
similar to that used for germanium and silicon diodes. The US average
factory sales price in 1959 for these units was $0.09 per unit.
The implied Soviet average price for these units, calculated from the
ruble-dollar ratio for transistors, is approximately 0.64 rubles per
unit. This price was applied to the Physical unit series to obtain
the total value of production for these units.
* P. 9, above.
** Unless otherwise indicated, ruble values are given in current
rubles throughout this report.
- 30 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
R
Next 3 Page(s) In Document Denied
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6
SECRET
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/22 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500150002-6