THE ROLE OF TRANSPORTATION IN THE ECONOMY OF COMMUNIST CHINA 1950-62

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 24
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 20, 2013
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 22, 1958
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
SECRET
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
N? 75
17-IE ROLE OF TRANSPORTATION
IN THE ECONOMY OF COMMUNIST CHINA
1950-62
CIA/RR 117-8-1
22 May 1958
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
THE ROLE OF TRANSPORTATION IN THE ECONOMY
OF COMMUNIST CHINA, 1950-62
CIA/RR 117-S-1
(ORE Project 43.2033)
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
? S-E-C-R-E-T
FOREWORD
This report presents an analysis of recent developments in the
transportation sector of the Chinese Communist economy.
The report is devoted exclusively to highway transportation, iniana
waterways and coastal shipping, and various forms of primitive or
native transportation.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
50X1
50X1
50X1
50X1
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
CONTENTS
Summary
I. Inland Waterways and Coastal Shipping
Page
1
2
A. Investment
2
B. Fleet Inventory
3
C. Performance
4
II.
Highways
5
A. Highway Network
5
B. Motor Truck Inventory
8
C. Operating Efficiency
10
D. Performance
12
III.
Native Transportation
15
A. Network
15
B. Inventory of Native Means
of Transportation
15
C. Operating Efficiency
16
D. Performance
17
Appendixes
Tables
1. Communist China: Estimated Performance
Transportation, 1957-62
of Inland Water
2. Communist China: Estimated Performance of
Shipping, 1957-62
3. Communist China: Estimated Performance
portation, 1957-62
Coastal
of Highway Trans-
-v -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
6
7
14
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
CIA/RR 117-S-1 S-E-C-R-E-T
(ORR Project 43.2033)
THE ROLE OF TRANSPORTATION IN nit ECONOMY
OF COMMUNIST CHINA, 1950-62*
Summary
Investment in water transportation in Communist China during the
First Five Year Plan (1953-57) was considerably less than that in land
transportation. Investment was devoted primarily to building up the
fleet. The smaller portion was allocated to increased use of naviga-
tion aids, construction of new ports, and rehabilitation of existing
ports. During the Second Five Year Plan (1958-62) the total volume
of investment in water transportation is expected to be higher than
in the First Five Year Plan, but the general pattern of investment
probably will remain about the same.
At the end of 1956, Communist China possessed approximately 80,000
civilian trucks, and a nearly equal number are owned and operated by the
military. Although China shortly will have the production capacity to
triple the civilian truck inventory by 1963, current and anticipated
shortages of motor fuel make this occurrence unlikely. If the avail-
ability of petroleum products for truck transportation does not increase
rapidly, the development of truck transportation will be seriously re-
tarded. Because of mounting production of trucks, the Chinese may soon
find it desirable to export trucks to underdeveloped areas as an eco-
nomic matter as well as a propaganda gesture.
The importance to the economy of the primitive or native means of
transportation in Communist China has often been underestimated, not
only by foreign observers but also by the Communist leaders as well.
Since mid-1956, however, there has been a steady flow of directives
urging fuller utilization of this great reservoir of transportation
capacity. Chinese Communist announcements indicate that in 1956
native transportation originated 298 million metric tons** of freight,
21 percent more than the railroads and 277 percent more than modern motor
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent
the best judgment of ORR as of 1 April 1958.
** Unless otherwise indicated, tonnages are given in metric tons
throughout this report.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
carriers. The military experiences of Korea and Indochina with native
transportation warrant respect for the capabilities of these means of
transportation. They are an integral part of the Chinese transportation
system, and their use is essential to the maintenance of the economy and
to its growth.
I. Inland Waterways and Coastal Shipping:
A. Investment.
During the First Five Year Plan, investment in water transporta-
tion in Communist China was considerably less than that in land trans-
portation. It is reported that in 1950 Communist China decided to
stress the development of railroads over highways and water transporta-
tion. 1/* This assertion is supported by the fact that during the
first 3 years of the First Five Year Plan railroads accounted for two-
thirds and highways for 19.3 percent of the total investment in construc-
tion in the realm of communications and transportation. 2/ The propor-
tions of the remaining 14 percent (approximately 600 million to 700 mil-
lion yuan) devoted to waterways, civil air transportation, and posts and
telecommunications are not known. The division between coastal and In-
land shipping of the share of investment for water transportation also
cannot be determined from available information. The most concrete in-
formation on this subject is the vague statement in the First Five Year
Plan that "within the 5-year period, the major obligation in the realm
of waterway transportation willbe to develop inland river transporta-
tion, with emphasis on the Yangtze River, and at the same time to appro.-
priately develop ocean transportation."
Of all funds invested in shipping on the Yangtze River in
1950-56, construction of ships accounted for about 67 percent; con-
struction of harbors and docks, about 12 percent; construction of
shipyards and of navigation markers, about 3 percent each; and con-
struction of waterways, about 2 percent. The remaining funds were
invested in living quarters, telegraph lines, health and welfare of
employees, cultural studies, and all other activities. 11/ Lack of
information precludes a comparable breakdown of investment in other
inland shipping or in coastal shipping, but the few scraps of informa-
tion available indicate that it is probably not significantly different
from the Yangtze program.
- 2 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
The email amount allocated by the Yangtze investment program to
facilities for handling traffic compared with the amount allocated to
building up the fleet indicates that it has been the expansion of the
fleet, not of port facilities, which has permitted the accomplishment
of traffic goals. Also, the stress on expansion of the fleet without
concurrent improvement of port facilities led to the crowding in ports
which had become a severe limitation on the use of ship capacity by
1956. The Chinese Communists recognized their error, and in 1957 in-
vestment in construction of ships was reduced to about 55 percent and
investment in harbor and dock work was boosted to about 22 percent of
total investment in Yangtze River shipping. 2/
During the Second Five Year Plan the total volume of investment
in water transportation is expected to be higher than that during the
First Five Year Plan, but the general pattern of investment probably
will remain about the same. Expansion of the fleet is expected to re-
tain high priority, but the emphasis is expected to shift somewhat from
the inland waterway fleet to the seagoing fleet. Investment in equip-
ment is expected to be higher in order to increase the capacities of
the ports for handling traffic, particularly the capacities of inland
ports.
B. Fleet Inventory.
Between 1950 and the end of 1956, with salvage efforts, foreign
purchases, and new construction, the modern Chinese Communist water
transportation fleet increased from about 79 vessels totaling 175,000
gross register tons (GRT) to about 117 vessels totaling 285,00Q GRT
(each vessel of 1,000 GRT or more). Of this total, the modern coastal
fleet at the end of 1956 is estimated to have accounted for about 72
vessels totaling 171,000 GRT and the inland fleet for about 27 vessels
totaling 61,000 GRT. The remainder were miscellaneous vessels such as
dredges which are a part of the fleet but not directly concerned with
transportation. The total tonnage of the modern inland waterway fleet*
is unknown but is estimated to be 400,00o to 500,000 deadweight tons (DWT).
There were at least 90,000 DWT of inland waterway vessels in 1950, .Y
and during the 1953-56 period vessels totaling 230,620 DWT were added to
the Yangtze fleet alone; and 32,600 DWT in addition were scheduled for
1957. 7/ During the First Five Year Plan a total of 289,000 DWT was
to be added to the inland fleet (and 111,000 DWT to the coastal fleet). .8./
If 263,220 DWT have gone to the Yangtze fleet, it is evident that the
fleets of other inland waterways have experienced very little growth.
The modern water transportation fleet in Communist China (in-
land and coastal combined) was increased in 1956 by approximately
* Including vessels of all sizes.
- 3 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
100,000 DWT, 2/ and the total tonnage added during the first 4 years
of the First Five Year Plan was 310,000 DWT. ly It is estimated that
the First Five Year Plan goal of an increase of 400,000 BUT was exceeded
because an increase of about 110,000 DWT, representing the largest in-
crease in tonnage ever achieved in a single year, was scheduled for
1957. 11/ No production figures for junks have been announced, but it
is estimated that Communist China is capable of constructing up to
150,000 DWT per year, of which some 25,000 DWT could be motorized. 22/
Although it is known that the Chinese Communists have retired some
vessels from the water transportation fleet, the attrition rate is
unknown. It is expected, however, to be low.
The modern inland and coastal fleets are augmented by a large
number of junks and other native craft. Although the Chinese Communists
refer to junks with some derision as "old fashioned," they are aware of
the tremendous service junks provide for the economy, particularly in
inland water transportation. In a speech to the 8th Party Congress on
the Second Five Year Plan, Chou En-lai indicated Chinese thinking on
the future place of junks in the transportation system when he said 1.31:
During the Second Five Year Plan period it is still
not possible for us to make large investments in build-
ing up modern transportation and in regulation of the
waterways. Therefore, full utilization of the existing
sail boats should be taken as the guiding principle of
every navigation department and every navigation worker.
Sail boats are an indispensable means of transport not
only to the navigation over rivers and tributaries, but
to the harbors and rivers used by modern means of trans-
port.
Goals for shipbuilding during the Second Five Year Plan have not
been announced, although the few available data point to emphasis on
production of coastal vessels. During this period it is anticipated
that additional shipbuilding capacity will be added and that greater
use will be made of sectional construction which will be reflected in
increased production. The tonnage produced will also be influenced
by the production of larger vessels (which seem to be required) be-
cause of the reduction in assembly time per ton compared with smaller
vessels. It is estimated that the Chinese Communist modern water
transportation fleet may be increased by approximately 1 million DWT
during the Second Five Year Plan, of which about 400,000 DWT may be
seagoing vessels.
C. Performance.
Early in February 1958 the Chinese Communists announced that their
1957 transportation plans for inland waterways and coastal shipping
- 4 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
had been overfulfilled. The ton-kilometer performance of inland water-
ways increased in 1957 by 21.4 percent, and that of coastal shipping
increased by 29.2 percent compared with 1956.1L2/ The announcement did
not contain performance figures for tons originated. Tables 1* and 2**
contain revised estimates of inland water transportation and coastal
shipping ton-kilometer and tons originated performance for the years
1957 through 1962.
II. Highways.
A. Highway Network.
Communist China has been busily constructing and repairing roads
throughout the country, but for several reasons it is impossible to pro-
vide precise figures on the aggregate length of all types of motorable
roads. This difficulty arises not so much from the reticence of the
Peking authorities as from the imprecise and contradictory nature of
figures released. Although the Chinese place motor roads in six classes
for administrative purposes, they do not define in their published sta-
tistics what they are talking about and do not even consistently dis-
tinguish between new building and the repair of existing roads. Under
the word translated as "highways" they sometimes include cart trails,
which are not negotiable by motor vehicles.
The most recent figures released by the Chinese indicate that the
total length of usable highways was raised from 75,000 kilometers (km)
in 1949 to 250,000 km at the end of 1957. 12/ The latter figure is
30,000 km higher than the end-of-1956 figure. 1W In either case it
is impossible to tell to what extent the figure has been increased by
including as highways those truck routes across the deserts and pla-
teaus where construction has amounted to nothing more than marking
the course and improving the approaches to crossings of gullies and
fords. A good example of this is the 1,300-km road in Tibet from
Nagchuka CHei-ho) to Gartok (Katako). After nearly a month a survey
of the road was completed by a team which had to build its own roads
so its vehicles could cross impassable stretches. 1// On 1 June 1956,
just 68 days later, it was announced that the new Nagchuka-Gartok
highway was open to traffic and that the first truck convoy had made
the run carrying 10 tons of goods to Gartok. 1.?./ In February 1957,
Peking announced that Inner Mongolia had 13,500 km of highways, of
which 11,000 had been built since the Communists took over. 12/ Un-
doubtedly a large part of these 11,000 km consists of little more
than tracks across the firm ground and grasslands of the area.XXX
* Table 1 follows on p. 6.
** Table 2 follows on p. 7.
XX Continued on p. 8.
-5-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20: CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 1
Communist China: Estimated Performance
of Inland Water Transportation :II/
1957-62
Year
Amount
(Billion Ton-Kilometers)
Volume
(Million Metric,
Tons Originated) 12/
Average Length
of Haul
(Kilometers) Si
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
15.7 21
17.7 2/
19.7 2/
21.7 2/
23.7 2/
25.7 2/
4o.6
45.7
50.9
56.0
61.2
66.3
387
387
387
388
387
388
a. Modern transportation, excluding wooden sailing vessels and junks.
b. Straight-line projection, based on the average of the absolute increases between 1950 and
1956. 22/
c. Calculated by dividing ton-kilometers by tons originated.
d. Announced 21.4-percent increase above 1956. 21/
e. Straight-line projection, based on the average of the absolute increases between 1950 and
1957. 22/
- 6 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20 : CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20: CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 2
Communist China: Estimated Performance of Coastal Shipping
1957-62
Year
Amount
(Billion Ton-Kilometers)
Volume
(Million Metric
Tons Originated)
Average Length
of Haul ,
12/ (Kilometers) 2/
1957
11.1 21
13.9
800
1958
12.6 2/
15.8
800
1959
14.0 E/
17.5
800
1960
15.5 2./ '
19.4
800
1961
17.0 2/
21.2
800
1962
18.4 2./
23.0
800
a. Modern transportation, excluding wooden sailing vessels and junks.
b. Calculated by dividing ton-kilometers by average length of haul.
c. The years 1953-56 reveal a tendency for the average length of haul to level off at about 800
kilometers. In the absence of additional information, it is assumed that this pattern will prevail
until the situation in the Taiwan Strait region is settled. 2
d. Announced 29.2-percent increase above 1956. 2L/
e. Straight-line projection, based on the average of the absolute increases between 1950 and
1957. 252
- 7 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20: CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
The building of what Peking calls simple highways (usually
nonmotorable) or local roads, even when involving substantially
greater improvements than in the two examples just cited, calls for
little more than organized local manpower and local materials. What
this process can amount to is shown in a Chinese Communist publi-
cation of April 1956 which states g,/:
In the development of local transportation, the
principles of economy, usefulness, utilization of lo-
cal resources and adaptation to local conditions must
be observed ... . The local labor force should be
organized. Voluntary contributions should be en-
couraged ... . According to estimates, 150 million
among the Chinese rural population may be able to
render free services in road construction. If each
of them will spend one day a year in road construc-
tion, and if in the construction of one kilometer of
temporary highways, 7,000 fang* of earth is required,
more than 40,000 kilometers of such highways could be
constructed in a year. This shows the tremendous ca-
pacities of local volunteer labor.
The quotation also shows something about standards of construction for
local roads.
B. Motor Truck Inventory.
The civilian authorities of Communist China possessed approxi-
mately 8o,000 trucks at the end of 1956. 2.?./ A nearly equal number are
owned and operated by the military. The civilian truck inventory is
composed of many different makes and models from at least nine different
countries, which seriously complicates maintenance and the obtaining of
spare parts. Since 1949, nearly all of the additions to the truck park
have come from the USSR and the European Satellites, especially Czecho-
slovakia. Of the total inventory, "heavy motor trucks with a total
capacity of more than 40,000 tons" have been imported "during the past
few years" according to the Chinese. .g9.1 Thus the number of trucks
imported must have been approximately 10,000 to 15,000.** Although
relaxation of Western trade controls will make trucks from Western
Europe available in the future, it is possible that this new source
will not be heavily tapped, because domestic production may soon catch
up with effective demand.
* The term fang used in excavations, masonry, and so forth equals
3.66 cubic meters. ay/
** An earlier announcement indicated that 40,000 trucks had been im-
ported in the past several years. ,10/ This figure apparently was an
error which was not detected until after the original announcement
was made.
- 8 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
In 1956, domestic production of modified ZIS-150 4-ton trucks
began at the newly opened First Automobile Plant at Chlang-ch'un. Pro-
duction may have amounted to as many as 1,654* trucks in that year aliy
and more than 7,000 in 1957. 12/ The goal for 1958 is 18,000 4-ton
trucks of various types. This figure is well ahead of the original
plan and indicates a capability of reaching the factory's designed ca-
pacity of 30,000 trucks a year considerably before the predicted date
of 1960. 32/ Thus there is the projected capability for more than
tripling the civilian truck inventory by the end of 1963.**
During 1958 the Chinese Communists plan to produce 11,000
4-ton Liberation trucks of the modified ZIS-150 type, 2,000 4-ton
gas generator trucks, several hundred 4-ton cross-country trucks,
and a number of dump trucks at the First Automobile Plant. Plants
manufacturing motor-vehicle parts in Nanking and Shanghai will pro-
duce 2-1/2-ton trucks, 2-1/2-ton gas generator trucks, and 500 1-ton
trucks with 3 wheels. In addition, trial production of 5-ton gaso-
line-burning trucks, 5-ton coal-gas trucks, 5-passenger automobiles,
1-1/2-ton trucks, and 2-ton cross-country trucks may take place. jaY
During the Second Five Year Plan the Chinese Communist motor
vehicle industry will attempt to supply most of the demands of the
country for motor vehicles both as to quantity and type. Plans call
for the design and production of 5-ton, 7-ton, and 10-ton trucks, and
various types of automobiles and buses. If necessary, the industry
will design and produce dump trucks with a loading capacity up to 25
tons. Another important goal will be the design and production of
various types of vehicles suitable for rural and rural-to-urban
transport using solid or gaseous fuels which are abundant in many
parts of the country. 32/ According to a plan drawn up by the Num-
ber 1 Industrial Bureau in MUkden, Liaoning Province, for example,
bureau-operated factories will produce 10,000 coal-burning trucks
by the end of 1962 in support of agricultural mechanization in the
province during the Second Five Year Plan period. 112/
* Although the figure of 1,654 has appeared in the official Communique
on Fulfillment of the National Economic Plan in 1956, 311 a conflicting
figure of 1,238 trucks produced in 1956 was also announced. 32/ Analysis
of the rate of production between October 1956 and June 1957 50X1
indicates that the figure of 5UX1
1,238 is probably the correct one.
** At a rate of 7,000 for 1957, 15,000 for 1958, and 30,000 for the
ensuing years, the total production through 1963 would be 172,000
trucks. By adding this amount to the 80,000 civilian truck park for
1956, the total becomes about 250,000, which is more than 3 times
the 1956 park.
- 9 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
Although the effect of the increased production capacity on
civil trucking actually will be reduced by the diversion of an unpre-
dictable number of new trucks to the military forces, the effect on
the available supply of gasoline will not be substantially lessened.
Because the rate at which domestic production can increase the truck
inventory may exceed the limits of the fuel supply, it is conceivable
that production of trucks may be deliberately retarded if production
of petroleum continues to lag. It is also possible that the First
Automobile Plant will begin producing a larger proportion of trucks
adapted to the use of nonliquid fuels than indicated above.
C. Operating Efficiency.
On 1 July 1957, Vice Premier Po I-po, concurrently Chairman of
the State Economic Commission of Communist China, in his speech to the
National Peoples Congress, announced Lli:
Because of the backwardness of petroleum produc-
tion in China and insufficient supply of liquid
fuels, there is no possibility of developing truck
transportation on a large scale for some time to
come.
A more recent discussion in the periodical Planned Economy indicates
that motor fuel was in acute short supply during 1957. Lg./ The serious-
ness of the situation is further pointed up by the State Council direc-
tive on gasoline economy issued on 1 February 1956 which stated that
"during the past few years, although China has quickly increased its
gasoline production, it is still unable to meet daily expanding needs
because of its weak base. It is estimated that for a long time to
come, large quantities of petroleum will still have to be imported." LQ/
The directive set forth various rules for limiting gasoline consumption;
it instructed various localities, in accordance with their own fuel sup-
plies, to give attention to vehicles which use charcoal, wood, anthra-
cite, alcohol, and natural gas; and it indicated that the import of non-
productive vehicles must be greatly reduced.LO-1/ References to the sav-
ings of fuel resulting from the use of non-gasoline-burning vehicles were
numerous during 1957. In May it was reported that although the use of
coal as a substitute fuel for motor trucks had been regarded as unsatis-
factory in the past, the need to save gasoline had led to tests of trucks
fitted with stoves on which a number of improvements had been made. In
view of the success of these tests, the Szechwan Provincial Transpor-
tation Bureau decided to convert 100 trucks for operation with coal gas
during 1957. It was estimated that the resulting savings in gasoline
would amount to approximately 400 tons./252 The Highway Transportation
Bureau of Anhwei Province also decided to convert 120 trucks to the
use of coal gas as fuel with estimated savings of 430 tons of gasoline
- 10 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
during 1957. During actual tests on the roads in Szechwan it
was found that by using soft coal gas, heavily loaded trucks could
travel 20 to 30 km per hour on any grade of less than 13 percent.
Coal-burning trucks thus could be used on all but a few of the roads
where the grades are too steep, such as the Szechwan-Tibet highway.1171
In addition to the use of coal-burning trucks, the Chinese have assigned
trucks from their limited inventory of diesel-powered trucks for driving
long distances in the high mountains of the Northwest.122
It is estimated that in 1957 Communist China may have had avail-
able approximately 400,000 tons of gasoline for its civilian motor ve-
hicle park. The quota set by the central government for consumption of
gasoline in 1956 was 17.75 kilograms per 100 km. 4 If the entire
supply of gasoline available in 1957 had been used by motor trucks at
this rate, then approximately 2.3 billion truck-kilometers* would have
been produced. Although some transportation groups consumed gasoline
at rates below the norm in 1956, Z1/ others exceeded it by as much as
100 percent, Li so it seems probable that considerably less than 2.3
billion truck-kilometers were produced in 1957 by trucks using gasoline
for fuel.
On the other hand, with a truck park of 80,000 vehicles opera-
ting an average of 200 km per day 300 days of the year, 22/ the Chinese
could have produced 4.8 billion truck-kilometers. Only a small portion
of this total would have been produced by non-gasoline-burning vehicles.
Thus, although these figures are all subject to wide margins of error,
it seems quite evident that the Chinese are experiencing a severe
shortage of gasoline, which will make it difficult for them to utilize
efficiently a truck park of 80,000 vehicles for some time to come.
Unless steps are taken, through imports or improvement of the
petroleum base, to satisfy requirements of fuel for motor transporta-
tion, the domestic shortage of petroleum will prevent the development
of truck transportation on a significantly larger scale in the immedi-
ate future. The Chinese may in such circumstances find it feasible
and desirable to export sizable numbers of their newly produced trucks
to underdeveloped areas in 1958 and beyond as an economic matter as
well as a propaganda gesture. At the close of the second Chinese
* The highway traffic performance of Communist China in 1957 is esti-
mated to have been 3.79 billion ton-kilometers (tkm). If the average
load per loaded truck is assumed to be 3 tons, the ton-kilometer figure
reduces to 1.26 billion truck-kilometers. Increasing this figure by
50 percent to account for the empty haul results in a figure of 1.9
billion truck-kilometers performed in 1957. This figure would seem
to indicate that the figure of 2.3 billion derived from the consump-
tion of gasoline is of the proper order of magnitude.
11 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
export fair, for example, it was announced that for the first time
4-ton Liberation trucks will be exported to Jordan, Egypt, Burma,
and Cambodia.
Nearly half of the civilian trucks in Communist China are
owned and operated by various government enterprises such as fac-
tories, mines, schools, and state farms. 2/ Slightly over half
are owned and operated by the various transportation organs of the
state. 22/ The latter perform services comparable to those of
common carriers in the US. Some of the long hauls are performed
by military trucks, particularly in dissidence-ridden Tibet where
Peoples Liberation Army transportation units reportedly transported
about 2.6 million tons of building materials for the Tibetan peo-
ple in 1956. ,.?./ A major reason for using military trucks on this
run is their suitability to operation in convoys by which they are
protected from the Tibetan people.
During 1956 it was found that the trucks belonging to the
state transportation organizations attained a utilization rate of
75 percent, 2/ whereas those of the individual enterprises had a
utilization rate of only 43 percent. 2_,V In order to overcome this
discrepancy, the enterprises were told that during periods of idle-
ness their trucks should be rented to the state transportation
organs. 22/ In 1956, some nontransportation enterprises experimented
with this policy. As a result, 9.6 million tons of freight reportedly
were hauled in rented trucks which would otherwise have been idle. ..q9/
On good roads the speed limit in Communist China generally
ranges from 10 to 20 km per hour (6 to 12 miles per hour) in towns
and from 40 to 50 km per hour (25 to 31 miles per hour) in the
country, L/ although speeds up to 80 km per hour (50 miles per
hour) have been reported. ..g/ Regulations forbid loading trucks
with more than their rated capacity, but this rule reportedly is
not strictly applied when US-manufactured Dodge and General Motors
trucks are being loaded. L5./
D. Performance.
A Chinese Communist announcement of October 1957 indicated
that the volume of highway freight traffic (probably tons originated)
in 1957 was expected to be 503.2 percent of 1952, or 154.5 percent of
the original First Five Year Plan goal. These figures represent an
average annual increase of 38.2 percent between 1952 and 1957.
In absolute terms the Chinese apparently planned to originate approxi-
mately 104.3 million tons of highway freight traffic in 1957, a 32-per-
cent increase above the 1956 figure of 79.1 million tons. Speaking
at the National Peoples Congress in early February 1958, Po I-po
- 12 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
indicated that the highway transportation plan for 1957 had been averful-
filled. Li His statement also implied that the ton-kilometer perform-
ance of highway transportation had increased by 8.4 percent in 1957. LV
Thus it appears that highway ton-kilometer performance in 1957 was
about 3.79 billion tkm and that tons originated performance was at
least 105 million tons. Average length of haul decreased by 18 per-
cent, from 44 km in 1956 to 36 km in 1957. Whether this is a re-
flection of the gasoline shortage, combined with an improvement in
truck utilization, or whether it is due to the improved service to
remote areas supplied by the new railroad lines is difficult to say
at this time. Between 1950 and 1956 the annual increase in highway
ton-kilometers was never less than 35 percent and in 1953 it reached
74 percent. In 1955, an unusual year in many respects, average
length of haul was 50 km, considerably above the 1957 figure. If
the figure of 50 km is eliminated, however, the trend of average
length of haul was upward between 1952 and 1956. At this time it
is difficult to foresee whether average length of haul will increase
or decrease in the future. It hardly seems likely, however, that
much of an increase will take place, in view of current and antici-
pated shortages of motor fuel. For purposes of estimating future
performance, average length of haul has been held constant at 40 km,
which is slightly less than the average for the years 1950 through
1957. Table 3* contains revised estimates of performance in terms
of ton-kilometers and tons originated for the years 1957 through
1962.
A failure of truck transportation performance to increase at
least as fast as the transportation demands of the expanding general
economy would become a serious problem for the Communist planners.
Recognition of the price of inadequate truck transportation has been
frankly outlined as follows Li:
Despite Lae great increase in performanc27, the
1956 highway transport work was far from being able to
meet the objective needs. A state of tension presented
itself in varying degrees in all parts of the country,
particularly in the Southwest and Northwest regions
where communication facilities were poor. Tension in
transport was more strikingly felt in some major cities
where capital construction tasks were heavy in some
newly developed areas. The tension has not once eased
since the second quarter of 1956, in Tsinghai, Sinkiang,
Inner Mongolia, Szechwan, Yunnan, and Kweichow.
* Table 3 follows on p. 14.
-13-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 3
Communist China: Estimated Performance of Highway Transportation ai
.1957-62
Year
Amount
(Billion Ton-Kilometers)
Volume
(Million Metric
Tons Originated)
Average Length
of Haul
(Kilometers).
1957
3.79 h/
? 105 2/
36 1/
1958
5.24 2/
131 E/
40 g/
1959
6.44 2/
161 L1/
40 E/
1960
7.72 2/
193 1/
40 g/
1961
9.12/
228 1/
40 g/
1962
10.5 e
262 hi
40 gi
a. Modern transportation excluding all forms of native transportation.
b. Announced 8.4-percent increase above 1956. g./
c.
d. Ton-kilometers divided by tons originated.
e. Tons originated multiplied by 'average length of haul.
f. Estimated increase of 25 percent above 1957.
g. Estimated.
h. Estimated increase of 23 percent above 1958.
i. Estimated increase of 20 percent above 1959.
j. Estimated increase of 18 percent above 1960.
k. Estimated increase of 15 percent above 1961.
... An undesirable effect was produced on the pro-
gress of production and capital construction and on the
supply of consumer goods for the people. Some capital
construction projects in Tlai-yuan, for instance, had
to be suspended waiting for materials which could not
be brought to the spot on time. The coke produced by
the Hsining Coke Plant in Shansi could not be shipped
out, thus hindering operation of the metallurgical
plants. Commodities ran out of stock in Sining LHsi-
ninjof Tsinghai at a time when quantity of supplies
was tied up in Hokow, 200 kilometers away . In
the Tsaidam and Karamai areas, supplies required for
geological prospecting and workers livelihood were
in short -supply because transport capacity could not
meet the needs.
Shortage of highway transport capacity also caused
blocking up of railway stations. The main railway
-14-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
stations like Peking, Tientsin
LT'ai-aZ, Lanchow LLan-chou
Shenyangrang Mnkden
Hantan LHan-tan Tsinan Lai-naj, and Chengchow
Lpheng-hsiej, were for a time blocked in 1956. Sup-
plies were tied up at the stations, impeding the move-
ment of rolling stocks.
Shen-
T'ien-chi Tai
Paotow Lpao-t'ou
Harbin LHa-erh-pia/,
an
... According to a rough estimate, a shortage of
transport capacity to the extent of 17,000 trucks was
felt by the provinces during 1956.
III. Native Transportation.
A. Network.
The various forms of native land transportation in Communist
China -- wagons, carts, pack animals, and coolie porters -- use the
same roads and highways as do the trucks and also the thousands of
miles of cart roads which are impassable to trucks. In addition,
pack animals and porters can use trails, which form the only means
of communication in many rugged areas of country.
The present regime, having belatedly come to appreciate the
value of its native transportation force, has set about building and
improving cart roads and trails. No national figures are available,
but it has been announced that 2,000 km of horse-cart roads and 800 km
of "footpaths and draft animal ways" have been built in Shensi Prov-
ince /2/ and that 1,700 km of "simple highways" (usually nonmotor-
able) and 1,000 km of "big cart roads and animal roads" have been built
in Shansi Province. /1/ Thus in spite of the public emphasis on heavy
industry and modernization of facilities, the native forms of transpor-
tation probably are carrying a heavier load than ever before and are a
great force whose potential in war or other emergencies cannot be ig-
nored.
B. Inventory of Native Means of Transportation.
Statistics on the inventory of animal-drawn and man-drawn carts,
pack animals, and porters are few and conflicting, but it is agreed that
the numbers are very large.* It is possible that there are 5 million
* 1953 Chinese Communist statistics (original source unspecified) give
1.1 million animnl-drawn carts and 200,000 pack animals. /g/ A 1956
Chinese estimate lowered the animal-drawn carts to 344,719 in 1956, a
21-percent decrease from 1955. D/ An official of the Highway Depart-
ment speaking to the National Committee Lfootnote continued on p.
- 15 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
animal-drawn carts, 200,000 pack animals, 10 million man-drawn vehicles
of widely varied types, and several hundred thousand professional por-
ters. All that can be said for certain is that the native transporta-
tion force is so vast that it is almost beyond the comprehension of
Westerners. According to incomplete figures, Yunnan Province alone has
41,458 pack horses and 1,326 pack bullocks. 'Y Kiangsu Province re-
ports that the carts already organized in October 1956 by the trans-
portation department have a capacity of 26,157 tons, 4/ and in Fukien
Province the Chin-chiang district alone boasts 13,300 nonmechanized
vehicles." 7.81 The experiences of Korea and Indochina have taught
Western observers to respect the capabilities of the primitive means
of transportation. Because they are an integral part of the Chinese
transportation system, their use is essential to the maintenance of
the economy and to its growth.
C. Operating Efficiency.
The importance to the Chinese economy of the native means of
transportation has often been underestimated not only by foreign observ-
ers but also by the machine-minded Communist leaders as well. One of
the major causes of the transportation jams in 1956 was the shrinkage of
native transportation resulting from the rapid collectivization of agri-
culture in late 1955 and early 1956. In Shansi Province, for example,
a great many farmers who were also cartmen had to give up their occu-
pations as carters to carry on full-time agricultural pursuits. /2/
The Communist leaders began to awaken to the importance of
native transportation in mid-1956, .8.2/ and since that time there has
been a steady flow of directives urging fuller utilization of this
great reservoir of transportation capacity. In addition, the plan-
ners have been taking steps to increase the efficiency of native
transportation. The carters and porters are being organized into
cooperatives, operations are being "rationalized" so as to get the
most service out of available equipment, and vehicles are being
modernized. Increased use of native transportation has been urged
in order to funnel goods to railroads and ports, LI several thousand
kilometers of trails have been improved into cart roads, and many
cart roads have been improved and shortened. :E1Z/
of the Peoples Political Consultative Council said that in 1956 there
were 5 million animal-drawn carts and 11 million man-drawn carts. //1/
At a conference held by the Ministry of Communications on 31 August 1957,
Wang Shou-tao, Director of the Sixth Office of the State Council, in-
dicated that Communist China now possesses more than 140,000 special
animal-drawn vehicles and more than 300,000 special man-powered vehicles
in addition to nearly 5 million animal-drawn vehicles and more than
10 million man-powered vehicles of various types in rural areas. 12/
- 16 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
S-E-C-R-E-T
D. Performance.
Until recently, the Chinese Communists have published no national
performance figures for transportation by native means. The fragmen-
tary statements indicate that in 1956 native transportation may have
achieved a total of 1.8 billion tkm* while originating 298 million tons**
of freight. If this figure is of the proper order of magnitude, native
transportation originated 21 percent more freight than the railroads
and 277 percent more than modern motor carriers in 1956.
* Based on the statement that 34 percent of total highway ton-kilo-
meters (modern transportation and native transportation) were performed
by native transportation in 1956. 1113/ Applying this figure to the
announced 3.5 billion tkm achieved by modern motor carriers results
in a figure of 1.8 billion tkm for native transportation.
** Based on the statement that native transportation originated
79 percent of total highway tonnage (modern transportation and native
transportation) in 1956. Applying this figure to the announced
79.1 million tons originated by modern motor carriers results in a
figure of 298 million tons originated by native transportation. Wang
Shou-tao also stated that in 1956 animnl-drawn vehicles alone trans-
ported over short distances a total of 298 million tons of good p in
the country.
- 17 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
R
Next 4 Page(s) In Document Denied
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20:
CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20: CIA-RDP79R01141A00100002000116
SECRET
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/20: CIA-RDP79R01141A001000020001-6