CHARACTERISTICS AND DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION OF THE USSR

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• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: October 25, 1957
• Content Type: REPORT

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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
CHARACTERISTICS AND DISTRIBUTION
OF THE POPULATION OF THE USSR
CIA/RR 109
25 October 1957
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
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WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which In any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
CHARACI1EISTICS AND DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION OF THE USSR
CIA/RR 109
(ORR Project 45.922)
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
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FOREWORD
This report revises previous estimates of the characteristics and
distribution of the population of the USSR to agree with the total
population figure of 200.2 million persons as of April 1956 which was
announced in The National Economy of the USSR (Narodnoye khozyaystvo
SSSR, Moscow, 1956).* In spite of certain reservations as to this
figure, which are explained in Appendix A, it is accepted as official
and exact even though it is characterized by the Russians as an esti-
mate. Other data in National Economy also are accepted: the total popu-
lation for 1940, the population by union republics, the urban and rural
population, recent birth and death rates, and the distribution of workers
and employees by republic. In order to obtain the population distribu-
tions in this report, it was necessary to reconcile the above figures
with certain other previous announcements which are considered equally
authoritative: the census of 1939; subsequent fragmentary announce-
ments of population increase; and the number of voters, a figure which
presumably gives an approximation of the population 18 years of age
and over at the time of each election.
The resulting estimates include the trend of the total population
projected to 1976; age and sex distribution, particularly working age
and military age; distribution by administrative areas and by economic
regions; breakdown by urban-rural residence; and distribution of em-
ployees in the state economy, by economic region and by sector of em-
ployment.
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CONTENTS
Summary and Conclusions
I. Introduction
Page
1
2
A.
Background of CIA Overestimate of Population
2
B.
Validity of Data on Soviet Population
3
II.
Trends in Population
4
A.
Estimate of Population of the USSR, 1941-56
4
B.
Projected Increase of Population in the US and the
USSR, 1956-76
5
C.
Factors Underlying Estimated Increase
6
III.
Characteristics of the Population of the USSR
7
A.
Distribution by Age and Sex
7
B.
Implications of Age Distribution on Soviet Economic
Potential
9
C.
Implications of Age and Sex Distribution on Soviet
Military Potential
10
D.
Growth in Urban Population
11
IV.
Geographic Distribution of Population, 1950-56
11
A.
Total Population by Republics
11
B.
Total Population by Economic Regions and Administrative
Subdivisions
13
C.
Urban Population by Economic Regions
16
D.
Distribution of Workers and Employees by Republics
16
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Appendixes
Page
Appendix A. Population of the USSR by Economic Region and
Administrative Division 19
Appendix B. Methodology
25
Tables
1. Total Population of the USSR, 1940, 1945, and 1950-61 . . 5
2. Projected Population of the US and the USSR, Selected
Years, 1956-76 6
3. Population of the USSR, by Age and Sex, Selected Years,
1951-76 8
U. Males 20 to 29 Years of Age in the USSR and the US,
Selected Years, 1956-76 10
5. Urban and Rural Population of the USSR, 1940 and 1950-56 12
6. Population of the USSR, by Republic, 1950 and 1956 . . . 13
7. Urban Population of the USSR, by Economic Region, 1939,
1950, and 1956 17
8. Annual Average Employment of Agricultural and Nonagri-
cultural Workers and Employees in the USSR, by Republic,
1950 and 1955 18
9. Preliminary Estimates of the Population of the USSR
in the 0 to 17 Age Group, 1 January 1955 29
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10. Preliminary
of 1949-54
11. Approximate
Countries,
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Estimates of the Number of Survivors
Births in the USSR, 1 January 1955 .
Life Expectancy at Birth, Selected
1955
Illustrations
Page
32
37
Following Page
Figure 1. US and USSR: Total Population, Selected Years,
1941-76 (Chart) 4
Figure 2. USSR: Increase in Total Population,
1950-56 (Map) 6
Figure 3. US and USSR: Population 15 to 59 Years
of Age, by Sex, 1951, 1956, and 1961 (Chart) 8
Figure 4. USSR: Cities with More Than 100,000
Inhabitants, 1956 (Map) 12
Figure 5. USSR: Urban Population in Percent of
Total Population, 1956 (Map) 12
Figure 6. USSR: Estimated Distribution of Popu-
lation, 1956 (Map) 18
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CIA/RR 109 S-E-C-R-E-T
(ORE Project 45.922)
CHARACTERISTICS AND DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION OF THE USSR*
Summary and Conclusions
The announcement in April 1956 by Soviet authorities that the total
population of the USSR amounted to 200.2 million indicates, as a major
conclusion, that the USSR suffered catastrophic losses in population of
413 million to 45 million persons as a result of World War II. The
losses, which include the deficit in births during and following the
war, amounted to an actual loss in population of 19 million to 22 mil-
lion persons during 1940-45 and an increase of only 26 million to 29
million persons instead of a projected increase of 47 million to 52 mil-
lion persons during 1945-56.
These war losses in the USSR are beginning to have an increasingly
severe effect on both the Soviet potential for economic growth and the
Soviet military forces. A sharply diminished rate of increase in the
number of individuals of working age is forecast for 1956-61, as the
children born during the war years reach maturity. The indicated in-
crease from 1956 to 1961 is less than the planned increase in workers
and employees. The discrepancy will force the USSR to make extraor-
dinary efforts to exhaust all sources of additional labor. The strin-
gency imposed by the sluggish increase in the working population will
extend into the early years of the Seventh Five Year Plan (1961-65)
before the effects of the postwar rise in the birth rate will materi-
ally affect the rate of growth of the labor force.
The war deficit in births will also make itself felt in the prime
military ages (males aged 20 to 29, inclusive) in the USSR by 1961.
From 1961 to 1971 this group will actually decrease by more than 2 mil-
lion. In the US, however, the steady rate of increase will enable the
US almost to equal the military manpower potential of the USSR by
1976.
The rates of natural increase in the populations of the US and the
USSR are about the same, as indicated by the present excess of births
* The estimates and, conclusions contained in this report represent
the best judgment of ORB as of 1 August 1957.
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over deaths. The projected rates of increase, on the basis of an
average-growth assumption, indicate that in the next 20 years the
population of the US will increase by about 56 million persons and
the population of the USSR by about 68 million persons.
Both countries have death rates which rank among the lowest in
the world, but the lower Soviet death rate is partially accounted for
by the concentration of the population in the younger ages. Assuming
no war and a continued improvement in the level of living, the crude
birth rate probably will continue at the same level in both countries
until 1976. A slight drop in the Soviet rate is possible if the effects
of continued industrialization are not offset by the balancing of the
sexes in the childbearing ages and by an improvement in the level of
living in the USSR.
The urban population of the USSR increased by 19.4 million persons
from 1950 to 1956. The urban increase was only 800,000 less than the
total increase in the population, indicating that practically all of
the natural increase in the Soviet population was absorbed by the cities.
In spite of the movement to the Far East and Central Asia, 76 per-
cent of the population of the USSR is in the RSFSR and the Ukraine.
The remaining 24 percent is divided among the other 14 republics. The
economic regions west of the Urals contain 78 percent of the total
population and more than 78 percent of the urban population. Economic
regions showing substantial increases from internal migration were the
Urals, Kazakhstan, South Central Asia, Eastern Siberia, and the Far
East.
I. Introduction.
A. Background of CIA Overestimate of Population.
The Soviet announcement of a total population of 200.2 million
In April 1956 1/* was about 20 million lower than the estimate in use
by CIA. 2/ The principal factors underlying the previous overestimates
are as follows:
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1. Soviet announcements, beginning in 1949, that the popu-
lation was about 200 million were repeated by various high officials
for several years and were taken to indicate a population of 200 mil-
lion about 1 January 1950. 1/
2. Khrushchev's statement at the Twentieth Party Con-
gress 12/ that the population had increased 16.3 million during the
period of the Fifth Five Year Plan (1950-55) was taken to indicate
that the population as of 1 January 1955 was 216.3 million and by
April 1956 was about 220 million (instead of the announced 200.2 mil-
lion).
When the previous estimate of 200 million as of January 1950
is considered with the official announcement of 200.2 million as of
April 1956 and 191.7 million as the annual average for 1940, 2/ it
becomes evident that the following errors were made: (1) deaths dur-
ing the war years were underestimated, (2) births during the same
period were overestimated, and (3) births during the postwar years
were slightly overestimated.
B. Validity of Data on Soviet Population.
Because of the continued use of the population figure of 200
million in earlier announcements, the April 1956 announcement raises
other questions as to the nature of the data in National Economy. The
two principal difficulties in coordinating the latest figure with pre-
viously announced figures and estimates which have hitherto been con-
sidered reliable are as follows: first, the fact that the total of
200.2 million in 1956 indicates war losses, including a deficit in
births, of about 47 million, or 20 million greater than the most care-
fully prepared previous estimates; and, second, the fact that if
the announced figure of more than 123 million registered voters in 1955
is accepted as a close approximation of the number of persons 18 years
of age and over (exclusive of about 2.6 million forced laborers), then
the residual of 74 million under 18 years of age implies an extremely
abnormal age distribution.
Because the announced figures were not based on a census and
were labeled as an estimate, they should be interpreted as subject to
unknown errors of estimation. In this connection it is worthy of note
that the US census of 1950 admits to an undercount of 2.1 million, or
1.4 percent.
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The principal questions raised by these considerations are as
follows:
1. How complete is the total and does it omit some cate-
gories?
2. How accurately and by what procedures was the estimate
made?
3. Does it apply specifically to April 1956 or is it an
estimate as of some prior date which had been carried
forward unchanged?
In spite of these questions, the figures in National Economy
are accepted as official totals, and the distributions in this report
are adjusted to them.
II. Trends in Population.
A. Estimate of Population of the USSR, 1941-56.
Only two recent total population figures are cited in National
Economy -- the estimate of 200.2 million for April 1956 and of 191.7 mil-
lion as an annual average for 1940 (just after the addition of annexed
territories and before the deep penetration of German armies). The
totals for intervening and future years must be inferred from other
evidence. The 1956 population may be projected back to 1950 with a
fair degree of certainty by means of the birth and death rates published
In National Economy. The estimate may also be extended back to 1949
by reference to a separate announcement of a natural increase of more
than 9.5 million in the years 1949-51. // This yields an estimate of
180 million for 1 January 1950. The trend from 1941 to 1949 can be
inferred only in general terms. Certain broad assumptions, however,
are reasonable: first, that the heaviest war losses occurred from
1941 through 1944, fixing the low point about 1945; and, second, that
a slow increase set in after 1945, but that at least for a year or two
births were abnormally low and deaths abnormally high. The lowest
point in the total population was about 170 million to 173 million in
1945, or 7 million to 10 million below the 1950 total. It may be in-
ferred, therefore, that the population decreased by 19 million to 22
million from 1940 through 1944, increased by 7 million to 10 million
by 1950; and then increased by 19 million more by 1 January 1956.
Table 1* shows the total population of the USSR in 1940, 1945, and
1950-61 (see Figure 1**).
* Table 1 follows on p. 5.
** Following p. 4.
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b:C):
US and USSR: TOTAL POPULATION, SELECTED YEARS, 1941-76
(In millions)
_
USSR
US
Figure 1
n'44 4?25.1 11%51 nt? 1 nig
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Table 1
Total Population of the USSR
1940) 1945, and 1950-61
Million
Year a/ Population
1940
(Annual average)
191.7
1945
170 to 173
1950
180.0
1951
183.1
1952
186.3
1953
189.5
1954
192.5
1955
195.9
1956
199.3
1957
202.6
1958
206.0
1959
209.6
1960
213.2
1961
216.8
a. 1 January.
B. Projected Increase of Population in the US and the USSR,
1956-76.
On the basis of certain assumptions* the population of the USSR
has been projected to 1976. It should be recognized that such projec-
tions should not be considered as predictions but merely indicate pos-
sible trends which would result from assumed modifications in present
trends and thus indicate the general order of magnitude of the possible
Increases.
The projected population of the USSR is compared with the pro-
jected population of the US in Table 2.**
* These assumptions are discussed fully in Appendix A.
** Table 2 follows on p. 6.
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Table 2
Projected Population of the US and the USSR
Selected Years, 1956-76
Million 11/
Year 12/
US 2/ USSR
1956
166.8
199.3
1961
179.1
216.8
1966
191.7
234.6
1971
206.3
251.3
1976
223.2
267.7
a. For each country, only 1 of the 4 alter-
native projections is shown. The projection
presented in each case is near the middle of
the range of totals possible from various as-
sumptions. The Soviet total range for 1976
is from 250 million to 285 million, and for
the US the range is from 208 million to 230
million.
b. 1 January.
c.
From these projections the increase from 1956 to 1976 in the
total population of the USSR is about 68 million and that of the US
about 56 million, widening the gap between the two populations (see
Figure 2).* The rates of natural increase indicated are about the
same.
C. Factors Underlying Estimated Increase.
The factors underlying the increases in the two countries are,
however, quite different. 2/
In the USSR the present level of fertility is depressed by the
imbalance between the sexes in the early childbearing ages, the con-
tinued urbanization, the increased proportion of youth in school, and
* Following p. 6.
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SECRET
Figure 2
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USSR- Increase in Total Population 1950-56
by Administrative Divisions
(1?11, Mad. MUM Or NORM ,saTiOul WERICO
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ECONOMIC REGIONS
I North and Northwest
Is Northwest
lb North
II West
Ila Baltic
Ilb Behwussta
III South
IV SoutheaSt
V TranscsocasuS
VI Volga
VII Central
%III Urals
IX West &bah;
X Kazakhstan and Central Asia
Na Kazakhstan
Xb Central Asia
XI East Siberia
XII Far East 50X1
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the depressed level of living. The level of fertility is upheld by the
relative youth of the population and the dramatic decline in the death
rate. In the immediate future the ratio of the sexes will become more
equal and the youth of the population will continue, but the proportion
of the population represented by women in the childbearing ages will
decline. It is also probable that the level of living will rise, but
urbanization will continue and there will be some increase in the pro-
portion of older youths in school. These factors probably will result
In a slightly lower birth rate, but it is estimated that there will be
a compensating reduction in the death rate. These opposing factors
should balance each other and produce a level natural increase.
In the US the predominant favorable factor which has probably
induced a change in the size of the family considered optimum has been
the pronounced and extended period of a high level of living and secu-
rity. When the war babies begin to reach the age of 15) the proportion
of the population represented by women in the young childbearing ages
will increase slightly. It is not known, however, whether the present
size of completed family will coincide' with the previous optimum. In
the absence of positive evidence in either direction, the projected
trend in natural increase in the US also has been kept level.
Characteristics of the Population of the USSR.
A. Distribution by Age and Sex.
The projections of the total population of the USSR at the be-
ginning of successive Five Year Plans shown in Table 3* indicate that,
in 1956, females outnumbered males by about 11.5 million and that much
of this excess is concentrated in the age span from 30 to 45 years be-
cause it was this group in which males suffered the heaviest attrition
from war casualties. The imbalance of the sexes will narrow to some
extent by 1976. In the age groups below 60 years the sexes will be
balanced, with the excess of females confined to the ages over 60.
The age groups in Table 3 show that 64 percent of the popu-
lation of the USSR in 1956 was in the age group from 15 through 59
years (see Figure 3**). This may be compared with about 58 percent
in the US. This high percentage in the reproductive ages in the USSR
Is caused by a reduction in the percent of the population under 15
* Table 3 follows on p. 8.
** Following p. 8.
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years of age by lowered birth rates and by increased infant mortality
during the war. The smaller percentage over 6o years of age in the
USSR is attributable to past high death rates.
Table 3
Population of the USSR, by Age and Sex it/
Selected Years, 1951-76
Million
Age and Sex
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
Under 15
Total
56.4
57.1
65.7
72.6
74.2
75.0
Male
28.8
29.1
33.6
37.2
38.0
38.5
Female
27.6
28.0
32.1
35.4
36.2
36.5
15 to 59
Total
113.9
127.0
132.4
138.6
148.9
160.8
Male
51.4
58.6
62.0
65.8
72.1
79.6
Female
62.5
68.4
70.5
72.8
76.8
81.2
60 and over
Total
12.8
15.2
18.6
23.4
28.2
31.9
Male
5.1
6.2
7.6
9.7
11.5
12.4
Female
7.7
9.0
11.0
13.7
16.7
19.5
All ages
Total
183.1
199.3
216.8
234.6
251.3
267.7
Male
85.3
93.9
103.2
112.7
121.6
130.5
Female
97.8
105.4
113.6
121.9
129.7
137.2
a. Projections of US Bureau of the Census B' Series
(see Appendix B). Figures have been rounded to the
nearest thousand consistent with computed totals.
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US and USSR
POPULATION 15 TO 59 YEARS OF AGE, BY SEX
1951, 1956, and 1961
millions)
Figure 3
Female
r--1 Male
113.9
93.1
51.4
46.2
127.0
96.5
58.6
47.7
132.4*
101.5
62.0
t0:2
USSR US USSR US USSR US
19 51 1956 1961
*Figures hove been rounded to the nearest
. thousand consistent with computed totals.
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The projection of the age groups to 1976, with the addition of
the survivors of children born after 1956) indicates that 60 percent
of the population will be 15 to 59 years of age -- a decrease from 1956
of it percent. On the other hand, the proportion in the ages below
15 will be about stable, but the proportion of the population over 60
years of age will increase markedly.
B. Implications of Age Distribution on Soviet Economic Potential.
Because about 95 percent of the employed persons in the USSR
are between the ages of 15 and 59 years, the fluctuations in the size
of this group are indicative of future employment potential. To some
extent, additional workers are drawn from males 60 years of age and
over) and a few from the older females.
The age groups in Table 3 show a very slight increase in the
age group from 15 through 59 years during the Sixth Five Year Plan
(1956-60), only 5.4 million (see Figure 3*). The dip in the rate of
increase from 1956 to 1961 is largely attributable to the fact that
the 15-year-olds entering the age group from 15 through 59 years will
consist of the survivors of births in the years 1941-46, the period
when the birth rate was lowest and the infant death rate highest. On
the other hand, males 6o years old and over will increase by 1.4 mil-
lion. Assuming that no more than 1 million of these will be employ-
able, a maximum net increase of only 6.8 million can be expected in
the employable ages during 1956-61.
This increase of 6.8 million contrasts with a planned increase
in workers and employees of 6.6 million, 10/ without an allowance for
an expansion in agriculture. The gap between the expansion in the
number of persons of employable age and the planned expansion in em-
ployment will present the Soviet planners with some hard choices, if
the expected increase in productivity does not materialize. The plans
for expansion in industrial production may be scaled down) but it is
more likely that every possibility of obtaining additional labor
forces will be examined. One possibility is that, by heavy invest-
ment in machinery, employment in kolkhoz agriculture will be reduced.
Another possible means of expanding the civilian labor force would be
to carry out the announced reduction of 1.8 million in the armed forces.
Still another possibility would be to increase the rate of participa-
tion of women and persons over 60 years of age, although the new re-
tirement law does not indicate a heavy dependence on increasing the
proportion of older workers.
* Following p. 8, above.
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Insofar as economic growth is dependent upon the labor supply,
therefore, the Soviet planners will be hampered during the Sixth Five
Year Plan and into the Seventh.
C. Implications of Age and Sex Distribution on Soviet Military
Potential.
When military potential is measured by the number of males
20 to 29 years of age, the Soviet potential, as shown in Table 4,
indicates a slight rise from 1956 to 1961 and then a sharp drop to
1971 and a recovery to the 1961 level by 1976. By comparison the
US potential during this period will show a fairly steady increase.
The Soviet potential, which in 1956 exceeds the US by more than
7 million, will have declined by 1976 to a level only about 2.7 mil-
above that of the US. The numbers in this age group are so large in
comparison with the peacetime strength of the armed forces, however,
that minor fluctuations in the total group are not significant except
with reference to full mobilization.
Table 4
Males 20 to 29 Years of Age in the USSR and the US
Selected Years, 1956-76
Million
Year
USSR US LL/
1956
18.5
11.2
1961
19.2
11.5
1966
18.8
13.1
1971
16.9
16.0
1976
20.7
18.0
a. See Table 2, footnote c, p. 6, above.
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D. Growth in Urban Population.
The Soviet urban* population in April 1956 was announced as
87 million, 11/ or about 44 percent of the total (see Figures 4 and
5**). By contrast the 1950 urban population of the US included 96 mil-
lion persons, or 64 percent of the total. In the US, 31 million in
addition were classified as rural nonfarm, many of whom would have
been classed in the urban category in the USSR.
An announcement in August 1953 placed the Soviet urban popu-
lation at about 80 million. 12/ Presumably this figure applies to
mid-1953. Another announcement, in February 1955, by Khrushchev, 12/
states that the urban population increased by 17 million from 1950
to 1955. On the basis of these three announcements the trend of the
urban population from 1950 to April 1956 is shown in Table 5.***
It will be observed that the increase of 17 million in urban
population from 1950 to 1955 was greater than the 15.9-million in-
crease for the nation, indicating a loss in the rural areas between
1950 and 1955. The urban increase during the period from 1 January
1955 to April 1956 was slower, but the rural increase, amounting to
1.8 million, was greater than that during any other corresponding pe-
riod. Khrushchev's announcement giving the 17-million urban increase
also states that 9 million of these had come from rural areas -- that
is) by migration to the city or reclassification of rural to urban
territory. The natural increase in urban territory, therefore) was
about 8 million) or probably at a slightly more rapid rate than in
the rural population.
IV. Geographic Distribution of Population, 1950-56.
A. Total Population by Republics.
The population of the union republics of the USSR for 1950 and
1956 is shown in Table 6.****
* The urban category in the USSR includes all large cities together
with "workers settlements," towns in which more than 35 percent of the
occupied workers are wage earners, and "urban type settlements" such as
convalescent centers and resort centers. It therefore excludes settle-
ments with less than 35 percent of the occupied workers employed in in-
dustry and possibly some suburban residents.
** Following p. 12.
*** Table 5 follows on p. 12.
**** Table 6 follows on p. 13.
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Table 5
Urban and Rural Population of the USSR
1940 and 1950-56
Million
Year
Total
Urban
Rural
1940
(Annual average)
191.7
60.6
131.1
1950 2/
180.0
67.6
112.4
1951 2/
183.1
71.4
111.7
1952 2/
186.3
74.7
111.6
1953 2/
189.5
78.0
111.5
1954 2/
192.5
81.3
111.2
1955 2/
195.9
84.6
111.4
1956 11
200.2
87.0
113.2
a. 1 January.
b. April.
In 1956, 153 million persons, or 76 percent of the total popu-
lation, were living in the RSFSR and the Ukraine. The other 47 mil-
lion were scattered in 14 republics whose average size was about 3 mil-
lion, or about the size of a small state in the US.
A significant southeasterly movement of population can be seen
in the distribution of population by republics. Those republics with
a population increase below the national average -- the RSFSR, Ukrain-
ian, Belorussian, Latvian, Lithuanian, and Estonian -- provided the
cadres, "volunteers," and pioneers for the underdeveloped resources
of the east. The RSFSR? whose total rate of increase was very close
to the national rate, showed an internal movement from western to
eastern ()blasts.* This shift was enough in most cases to offset the
entire natural increase in western areas, and in the case of the Bal-
tic republics it overbalances the natural increase.
* See Appendix A.
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/21 : CIA-RDP79R01141A000900110002-7
USSR: CITIES WITH MORE THAN 100,000 INHABITANTS, 1956
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