AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENTS AND IMPROVEMENTS IN COMMUNIST CHINA 1953-62

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01141A000900050002-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 34
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: September 6, 1957
• Content Type: REPORT

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SECRET
N? 80
AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENTS
AND IMPROVEMENTS IN COMMUNIST CHINA
1953-62
CIA/RR 103
6 September 1957
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Sees. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT AND IMPROVEMENTS
IN COMMUNIST CHINA
1953-62
CIA/RR 103
(ORR Project 21.1704)
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The purpose of this report is to analyze and assess present and
proposed agricultural developments in Communist China under the First
and Second Five Year Plans (1953-57 and 1958-62). Special emphasis
is given to investment and to measures for increasing agricultural
production.
The analysis of agricultural production in this report is limited
to grains and cotton. It is believed that the results obtained from
an analysis of investment and of measures to increase production repre-
sent maximum possibilities, and any degree of error inherent in this
analysis would tend, therefore, to overestimate production.
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I. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
U. Goals for Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
A. First Five Year Plan (1953-57) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 4
B. Second Five Year Plan (1958-62) . . . . . . . . . . 6
III. Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
IV. Measures to Increase Production . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
A. Irrigation and Flood Control . . . . . . . . . . 8
1. First Five Year Plan (1953-57) ? ? ? 8
2. Second Five Year Plan (1958-62) . . . . 9
3. Effects on Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
B. Chemical Fertilizers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1. First Five Year Plan (1953-57) . . . . . . . . 11
2. Second Five Year Plan (1958-62) . . . . . . . . 11
3. Effects on Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
C. Organic Fertilizers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
D. Land Reclamation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
1. First Five Year Plan (1953-57) . . . . . . . . 15
2. Second Five Year Plan (1958-62) . . . . . . . . 17
3. Effects on Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
1. First Five Year Plan (1953-57) . . . . . . . . 17
2. Second Five Year Plan (1958-62) . . . . . . . . 18
3. Effects on Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
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F. Modern Farm Implements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
G. Control of Pests and Plant Diseases . . . . . . . . 21
H. Improved Varieties of Seeds . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
V. Prospects for Increasing Production . . . . . . . . . .
VI. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1. Production of Grains and Ginned Cotton in Communist
China, 1952-57 and 1962 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2. Increases in Area Under Irrigation in Communist China,
1952-57 and 1962 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Supply of Chemical Fertilizers in Communist China,
1952-57 and 1962 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
4. Increases in Area Under Cultivation in Communist China,
1952-57 and 1962 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
5. Number of Tractors in Communist China, by Type of
Organization, 1952-57 and 1962 . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
6. Estimated Increases in the Production of Grains and
Cotton Resulting from Measures to Increase Production
in Communist China, 1953-62 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Reported, Planned, and Probable Production of Grains
and Cotton in Communist China, 1952-57 and 1962 . . . 25
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CIA/RR 103 S-E-C-R-E-T
(ORR Project 21.1704)
AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT AND IMPROVEMENTS
IN COMMUNIST CHINA*
1953-62
The government of Communist China has sought to meet the growing
needs of an expanding economy through a program for the socialization
of agriculture. To implement this program, the Communists have sought
to eliminate the small independent farmers and to achieve complete
control over agricultural producers and their products. The rapid
organization of agricultural producer cooperatives in 1956 raised the
percentage of organized farmer households to 96 percent by the end
of the year, and the program for socialization is almost complete.
State investment in agriculture under the First Five Year Plan
(1953-57), however, has been insufficient to achieve the goals for
agricultural production. Such investment has comprised only 7.6 per-
cent of the total investment planned for the period. This amount
has not been sufficient to supply the necessary quantities of inputs,
especially of chemical fertilizers. In an attempt to resolve this
problem, the government has transferred the bulk of the burden of in-
vestment in agriculture to the cooperatives. Since 1955, cooperative
farm labor has been utilized intensively on local projects for irriga-
tion, water conservation, and land reclamation. The increase in agri-
cultural production resulting from these local projects accounted for
more than 60 percent of the increase in the production of grains**
during 1953-57. An examination of state and cooperative investments,
however, indicates that increases in the production of grains during
1953-57 will enable the Chinese at most to raise the total production
of grains in 1957 to 185.6 million metric tons,*** or 96 percent of
the goal of 192.8 million tons announced in the First Five Year Plan.
* The estimates and conclusions in this report represent the best
judgment of ORR as of 1 August 1957.
** In Communist China, grains include all cereals, pulses, soybeans,
and potatoes on a grain-equivalent basis.
*** Tonnages are given in metric tons throughout this report.
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The goal of 1.6 million tons for the production of ginned cotton*
probably will be achieved.
The limits to which cooperative labor using local investment can
carry out effectively the proposed project for irrigation, water con-
servation, and land reclamation should be nearly reached by the end
of 1962. Thereafter, such undertakings will require greater amounts
of capital than can be furnished locally.
Any significant increases in agricultural production in Communist
China will depend primarily upon the supply of chemical nitrogenous
fertilizers. Requirements for chemical fertilizers have been esti-
mated at approximately 20 million tons a year, or about 10 times the
amount consumed in 1956. Attempts are being made to alleviate this
deficit by increasing the supply of organic fertilizers.
It has been stated that increased supplies of chemical fertilizers
and other inputs required for agricultural production will be provided
under the Second Five Year Plan (1958-62) through an increase over the
amount invested under the First Five Year Plan. Allowing for the maxi-
mum utilization of all available inputs under the Second Five Year Plan,
the production of grains in 1962 probably will not exceed 217.8 million
tons, or 87 percent of the goal of 250 million tons. The goal of pro-
ducing 2.4 million tons of cotton may be achieved.
Increases in the production of grains through the end of 1962
probably will be sufficient to maintain the supply per capita of food
at present levels of consumption. After 1962, however, unless the
production of grains can be increased at a rate which equals or exceeds
the increase in population, Communist China may be forced to become a
net importer of food.
The "high tide of socialist transformation of agriculture" which
was decreed by the Party leadership in Communist China in the latter
half of 1955 has changed profoundly the structural organization of
Cotton is reported on a ginned basis throughout this report.
2 _
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the agricultural economy and the trend of agricultural development.
Under the accelerated program for socialization, the government has
extended state controls in order to expand agricultural production and
to bolster industrial investment. J
The failure to achieve agricultural goals in 1953 and 1954 and a
general pessimistic attitude toward the pace of socialization had led
to a series of decisions by Mao Tse-tung and the Central Committee of
the Chinese Communist Party. The floods of 1954 resulted in a reduc-
tion of agricultural production, which in turn reduced the production
of light industry and the hoped-for increases in revenue in 1955. 3
The projected rates of investment in heavy industry in 1955 required
substantially increased investment by the agricultural sector of the
economy. It was clear that these requirements could be obtained only
by extending state control over agriculture through the program for
socialization and through substantially increased agricultural pro-
duction by means of increased investment. Mao Tse-tung, in his re-
port of 31 July 1955, after the relatively limited goals of the First
Five Year Plan (1953-57) had been accepted by the National Peoples
Congress, strongly criticized the conservative elements of the Party
for their lagging efforts on behalf of the program for socialization
of agriculture and'Ioutlined a new program calling for acceleration
of socialization. J
Partly as a result of the enthusiasm stimulated by the drive for
socialization, a broad agricultural program was announced early in
1956. J This program, known as the Twelve Year Draft National Pro-
gram for Agriculture, outlines several courses of action which are to
be pursued simultaneously in an ambitious us attempt to increase the pro-
duction of grains and cotton by 1967. J The Second Five Year Plan
(1958-62), although following the operational pattern of the 12-year
program, is less unrealistic in its specific goals for production.
As a result of the accelerated program for socialization, 1956
became a key year for the transition of agriculture from private to
state control. The bumper harvest of 1955 largely eliminated the
difficulties encountered in 1954 by the Party cadres in fulfilling
plans for the allocation of grains and industrial crops and in or-
ganizing the farmers into cooperatives. By the end of 1956, approxi-
mately 96 percent of the farm households in Commun'i/st China were or-
ganized into agricultural producer cooperatives. Jl By means of rapid
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socialization the,surplus of labor on cooperative farms is being uti-
lized in projects to consolidate small fa;m plots into large fields;
to construct dikes and ditches for flood control and irrigation; to
engage in land reclamation; and to consolidate the collection, handling,
and storing of organic fertilizers. In addition, socialization is to
provide the means for the better planning of crop planting and rota-
tion, the allocation of resources for investment, and the control of
production through state channels. J
In presenting his proposals on agriculture for the Second Five
Year Plan at the Eighth Party Congress in September 1956, Chou En-lai
reaffirmed the statement by Mao on the indispensability of agri-
cultural development for the development of heavy industry and of
the entire national economy. 2/ Increases in agricultural production
under the Second Five Year Plan were to be achieved through increased
yields per unit of land. LO/ Although no detailed information as to
the composition of agricultural investment during this period was
given, it was estimated that agricultural investment would increase
from 2.47 billion yuan* under the First Five Year Plan to 7 billion
'
yuan under the Second Five Year Plan, an increase of 283 percent. J
In addition, investment in capital construction for the chemical
fertilizer industry is to be increased under the Second Five Year
Plan. 12
II. Goals for Production.
A. First Five Year Plan (1953-57).
The over-all goals for agricultural production in Communist
China during the last 3 years of the First Five Year Plan were out-
lined in great detail in an important speech by Li Fu-ch'un, Chair-
man of the State Planning Commission, at a session of the National
Peoples Congress in July 1955. IV Li stated that by 1957 the pro-
duction of grains was to increase to 192.8 million tons, and the pro-
duction of cotton to 1.6 million tons. 14 The reported and planned
production of grains and cotton in China in 1952-57 and that planned
for 1962 are shown in Table 1.**
* An acceptable rate of exchange, based on commercial rates of ex-
change with the pound sterling, is 2.46 yuan to US $1.
** Table 1 follows on p. 5.
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Production of Grains and Ginned Cotton in Communist China J
1952-57 and 1962
Year
Grains
Ginned Cotton
1952
163,900
1,305
1953
166,800
1,175
1954
168,800
1,065
1955
184,000
1,518
1956 b
199,450
1,775
1956 J
192,000
1,46o
1957 J
192,800
1,635
1962 J
250,000
2,400
a. 15
b. Revised Plan announced 23 December 1955-
c. Reported figures. 16
d. Original Five Year Plan announcement.
e. Plan announced 15 September 1956.
Among the specific measures listed by Li for increasing pro-
duction were the reclamation of arable wasteland; the construction
of projects for irrigation and water conservation; the increased
planting of such high-yield crops as rice, corn, and potatoes; the
increased supply of manure and chemical fertilizers; the introduc-
tion of improved animal-drawn farm implements; and the elimination
of insects and pests.
As a result of the enthusiasm generated by Mao Tse-tung's
speech of July 1955, goals for agricultural production were reported
by the New China News Agency (NCNA) on 23 December 1955. The NCNA
stated that the First Five Year Plan was to be completed in advance and
the goals set in July 1955 for production in 1957 were to be reached
in 1956. 17 The new goal for the production of grains was stated
as 199.4 million tons, an increase of 6.6 million tons above the
original goal for 1957. 18 The goal for the production of cotton
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On the basis of data given in September 1956 on the production of
grains and cotton under the Second Five Year Plan, it appears that
Chinese Communist officials returned to the goal of the original
First Five Year Plan as the basis for the new Plan. 21 The revised
goals were canceled, probably because of the losses in crops result-
ing from floods and storms in 1956.
Goals for agricultural production under the Second Five Year
Plan were reported first on 15 September 1956 and confirmed later by
various pronouncements made at the Eighth Party Congress. The produc-
tion of grains is scheduled to total 250 million tons in 1962, and the
production of cotton is set at 2.4 million tons. 22
Under the Second Five Year Plan, emphasis is to be placed on
the use of cooperative farm labor on small-scale projects for irriga-
tion and flood control, the improvement of agricultural practices,
the greater use of natural fertilizers, a small increase in the use
of chemical fertilizers, an increase in large-scale cultivation by
the consolidation of small plots into large fields, the increased
use of improved tools and machinery, and the increased use of better
seeds and pesticides. The principal results of the new program are
to'be realized from the intensive efforts of the cooperatives. L3/
It is generally admitted by the planners that many rivers which are
likely to cause havoc cannot be harnessed, that reclamation work on
a larger scale cannot be undertaken, and that conditions are not
present for the mechanization of agriculture. L4/
The programs for investment in agriculture in Communist China
are carried out by the state and by the farmers. Investment by the
state during 1953-62 is being carried out through the First and
Second Five Year Plans, and investment by the farmers is effected
through the savings of agricultural producer cooperatives and through
agricultural loans by the government to the cooperatives and to in-
dividual farmers.
The First Five Year Plan called for the investment by the state
of 2.47 billion yuan for agriculture, water conservation, and for-
estry.* 25/ This figure is 5.8 percent of total investments scheduled
Excluding investment in the lumber industry.
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under the First Five Year Plan; the share of industry was scheduled
to be 58.2 percent. The Second Five Year Plan is believed to call
for the investment of approximately 7 billion yuan for agriculture,
water conservation, and forestry.* 26 This amount is 8.2.percent
of total investments proposed under the Second Five Year Plan, whereas
the scheduled share of industry is 60 percent.
Most of the investments by the state in basic construction for
agriculture are used for water conservation. / Relatively small
sums are spent by the state for land reclamation, the organization,
of state farms, the mechanization of agricultural operations, and
the improvement of agricultural techniques through the establishment
of agro-technique stations and similar organizations.
In addition to the funds earmarked for investment in agriculture
under the First and Second Five Year Plans, the state is making limited
expenditures for building chemical fertilizer plants and agricultural
equipment plants. 28 The capacity of the proposed chemical fertilizer
plants, however, will fall short of filling the needs of Communist
China through 1963.
Water conservation will receive more emphasis than any other ele-
ment of the program for basic construction for agriculture in China
through 1962. The contribution of the state to this program consists
for the most part in building very large water control projects which
will serve for flood control, erosion control, the development of
hydroelectric power, and the extension of navigation. 29 The'in-
crease in the area of farmland under irrigation is a minor part of
this program for water conservation, and only a small part of the
investment will result directly in increased agricultural production.
Most of the efforts toward water conservation by the state will have
long-range effects, diminishing the threat of floods and making water
available in areas hitherto lacking in water.
* The proposed plan called for an investment of about 8.5 billion
yuan, which presumably includes investment in the lumber industry. If
the lumber industry is to have at least the same share of total in-
vestment under the Second Five Year Plan as under the First Five Year
Plan, the planned investment in the lumber industry should be about
1.5 billion Yuan. This sum should be subtracted from the total of
8.5 billion yuan in order to compare agricultural investment under
the First and Second Five Year Plans.
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As for increasing the area of farmland under irrigation, the
farmers themselves, through the intensive efforts of the coopera-
tives, will bear most of the burden. Under the First Five Year Plan,
about 75 percent of the increase in the area under irrigation has
been achieved through cooperative labor. 30 The activity of the
farmers in small-scale projects probably will continue through 1962. Ili
IV. Measures to Increase Production.
A. Irrigation and Flood Control.
1. First Five Year Plan (1953-57).
The Ministry of Water Conservancy stated that the First
Five Year Plan originally called for an increase of 2.8 million hec-
tares* of irrigated fields. This goal has been raised to 4.8 million
hectares. 321 Although the expansion of the area under irrigation
through 195 was reported to be only 1.9 million hectares, 13J it
appears reasonable that the revised goal for 1957 will be achieved.
The increases in the area under irrigation in Communist China in
1952-57 and that planned for 1962 are shown in Table 2.
Increases in Area Under Irrigation in Communist China
1952-57 and 1962
a. 3 c. Five Year Plan. e. Revised Plan. g. Estimated.
b. 35 d. 36
f. 3
J _J/
Year
Area Under Irrigation
Increase over
Previous Year.
Increase over
1952
1952
30.7 J
N.A.
0
1953
31.0 J
0.3
0.3 J
1954
31.6 J
0.6
0.9
1955
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
1956
32.6 J
N.A.
1.9
1957 J
33.5 J
0.9
2.8
1957 J
35.5 J
2.9
4.8
1962
45.1 .6/
N.A.
14.4
* One hectare equals 2.471 acres.
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Of the planned increase in the area under irrigation by
the end of 1957, 3.5 million hectares will be devoted to rice, 300,000
hectares to other grains, and 1 million hectares to cotton. 38
Detailed information as to the increase in the area under
irrigation scheduled under the Second Five Year Plan has not been
reported. On the basis of the expected increase in investment, how-
ever, it is reasonable to assume that the increase in the area under
irrigation will be about 9.6 million hectares, or twice the increase
achieved under the First Five Year Plan.*
Projects for water conservation and irrigation have been
begun on the Yellow and Huai Rivers. The Yellow River project is
expected to bring 2.4 million hectares under irrigation by 1967,
although the final figure is expected to be about 7.7 million hec-
tares. 39 It is possible that some increase in irrigation result-
ing from this project may be available by 1962.
Considerable progress is being made in local projects
through the construction of dams and through the digging of wells
and channels for irrigation. It is stated that the cooperative,
movement will assist the projects by providing capital and labor,
especially because each man must put in 250 work-days and each woman
120 work-days per year. ILO/ It is expected that about one-third of
the man-days provided will be available for such work as irrigation,
land reclamation, and afforestation. There has been a marked ac-
celeration of this type of work since the beginning of the drive for
socialization.
Of the newly irrigated land planned for 1962, it is esti-
mated that 7 million hectares will be cultivated to rice, 300,000
hectares to other grains, and 2.3 million hectares to cotton.
Irrigation is one of the most effective means of increasing
agricultural production in Communist China. Larger increases in yields
per hectare can be obtained through the use of chemical fertilizers,
but the cost is much higher, especially when the costs of chemical
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fertilizers are compared with the cost of local projects for irriga-
tion,* to which very little, if any, state investment is allocated.
These local projects have accounted for the bulk of the increases in
irrigation to date, but the extent to which such projects can con-
tinue to increase production is limited. In the long run the cost
of irrigation will be increased by the requirements for construction,
and the comparative cost in relation to the use of fertilizer prob-
ably will be reversed.
The crops most benefited by irrigation are rice and cotton.
In 1957 these two crops will utilize 94 percent of the increase in the
area under irrigation and by 1962 about 97 percent. The remainder of
the increase will be devoted to other grains.
The increases in the production of grains resulting from
the increased area under irrigation probably will total 5.3 million
,tons under the First Five Year Plan and 10.3 million tons under the
Second Five Year Plan. Of these totals, it is estimated that rice
will account for 5 million tons under the First Five Year Plan and
10 million tons under the Second Five Year Plan. Increases in the
production of cotton resulting from the increased area under irriga-
tion are expected to be about 127,.000 tons under the First Five Year
Plan and 291,000 tons under the Second Five Year Plan.
The principal deficiency of the soil in Communist China is
nitrogen. The increased use of commercial nitrogenous fertilizer's
probably would be the greatest single factor in improving the yield
per hectare. Because of the lack of livestock farming, there is in-
sufficient natural fertilizer. Although every scrap of human and
animal feces is conserved, the traditional use of the material has
been inefficient.
The Minister of Agriculture has placed the requirements for
chemical nitrogenous fertilizers at 20 million tons, 41 a figure
closely comparable with non-Communist estimates. Present usage in
China is only about 10 percent of this amount. If such a supply
of chemical fertilizers were available, it is estimated that the
total cost would be about US $1.1 billion to US $1.4 billion per year. 42
* Local projects for irrigation are those involving mainly farm labor
using simple hand tools to construct wells and ditches for irrigation.
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The most important nitrogenous fertilizer used in Communist
China is ammonium sulfate, which experiments have proved to be the
most beneficial to the soil. Ammonium sulfate probably will account
for about 98 percent of the supply of nitrogenous fertilizers in China
during 1953-62.
The lack of chemical fertilizers in Communist China is
reflected in the First Five Year Plan. In 1957 the production of
chemical nitrogenous fertilizers is expected to reach only about
548,000 tons. / Although no plan for imports was announced, it
is estimated that approximately 1.85 million tons will be imported.
The total supply of chemical fertilizers in 1957 would therefore be
about 2.4 million tons, an increase of about 2 million tons over 1952.
The supply of chemical fertilizers in Communist China in 1952-57,
that planned for 1962, and the estimated probable supply in 1962
are shown in Table 3.*
The goals for the production of phosphate fertilizers in
1957 were not given, but is is estimated that about 400,000 tons prob-
ably will be made available by 1957, an increase of more than 390,000
tons over 1952.
In 1955, state investment in the chemical industry was
scheduled to increase over the previous year, and two-thirds of the
amount invested in the industry was allocated for chemical ferti-
lizers. L4/ Three new plants were to be built and two others were
to be reconstructed by 1957.
The goal for the production of chemical fertilizers in
1962, 3.0 million to 3.2 million tons, is more than five times the goal
for production in 1957. 45 Details of the program for the produc-
tion of chemical fertilizers under the Second Five Year Plan are not
available, but the program appears to be controlled by a limited
budget rather than by the requirements of vigorous agricultural
development. The First Five Year Plan called for the construction
of plants to produce nitrogenous and phosphate fertilizers, and there
is no indication that any additional construction of plants to produce
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Supply of Chemical Fertilizers in Communist China
1952-57 and 1962
Nitrogenous Fertilizers J
Year
Production
Imports
Total Supply
Phosphate Fertilizers
1952
188,500 J
225,000 /
413,500
5,500
1953
250,000 /
400,000 /
650,000
10,000
1954
330,000 J
600,ooo /
930,000
15,000
1955
356,000 e/
1,200,000 J
1,556,000
20,000
1956
490,000 J
1,500,000 J
1,990,000
200,000
1957 J
548,000 J
1,850,000 J
2,398,000
4oo,ooo
1962
3,000,000
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
1962 J
1,200,000
3,300,000
4,500,000
1,800,000
a. Ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate.
b. /. Mainly rock phosphate. Domestic production only, no phosphate
fertilizers are imported.
c. 47/
d. ~~
e. Including 324,000 tons of ammonium sulfate and 32,000 tons of ammonium
nitrate.
f. Estimated.
g. Including 444,000 tons of ammonium sulfate and 46,000 tons of ammonium
nitrate. 50
h. Plan.
1. 51
J. Plan for total production of all chemical fertilizers. 52
k. Estimate of the probable supply.
nitrogenous fertilizers is planned. Current construction of such plants
is devoted primarily to the expansion of existing facilities or the
building of byproduct facilities at steel plants, both of which are
considerably less expensive than new construction. Any additional new
construction of plants to produce nitrogenous fertilizers under the
Second Five Year Plan would have to be started soon because the Chinese
Communists say that it requires 5 or 6 years to construct such a plant.
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In most cases the phosphate fertilizers planned for 1962
apparently are to be produced by the simple method of grinding phos-
phate rock into granular form, although this type of fertilizer con-
tains much less nutrient value than other chemical fertilizers. The
construction of facilities for producing phosphate fertilizer of this
type requires relatively less capital investment than is necessary
for the more complex process of producing nitrogenous fertilizers.
It is estimated that of the approximately 3 million tons of chemical
fertilizers which will be produced annually by 1962, 1.8 million tons
will consist of phosphate fertilizers and 1.2 million tons of nitro-
genous fertilizers.
Although the supply of chemical fertilizers in Communist
China has been increased, only a small portion of the total area un-
der cultivation will be fertilized soon. Distribution will continue
to be on a priority basis, with major emphasis given to rice, cotton,
high-yielding grain crops such as corn, and technical crops such as
tobacco. By far the greatest quantity will go to rice. Numerous
experiments conducted in China have shown that the increased yield
per hectare from the use of. nitrogenous fertilizers is extremely good,
particularly in the alluvial areas on which most of the paddy rice is
cultivated.
The increase in the supply of chemical fertilizers under
the First Five Year Plan will make possible an estimated increase in
the production of grains of about 4.6 million tons, of which rice
will account for 4.4 million tons. The production of cotton will in-
crease about 75,000 tons during the 5-year period.
The probable increase in the supply of chemical fertilizers
under the Second Five Year Plan will make possible an increase in the
production of grains of about 5.7 million tons, including 4 million tons
of rice, and an increase in the production of cotton of about 176,000
tons.
The principal fertilizers used in Communist China today are
organic fertilizers, especially night soil and manure. River and
pond mud, oilseed cake, and vegetable wastes are also used extensively.
For centuries, Chinese farmers have depended upon these fertilizers to
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maintain the fertility of the soil because the steady depletion of
soil nutrients through the ages has necessitated the intensive use
of all types of organic fertilizers. As a result of the use of
organic fertilizers, the farmers of China have been able to maintain
relatively high yields compared with those of other countries in
Asia. Because of the poor diet of both animals and people in China,
the quality of night soil and manure is not good and is particu-
larly lacking in nitrogen. As a result of this poor quality, a larger
quantity of organic fertilizers is required to maintain or to raise
the yield per hectare than is the case with chemical fertilizers.
Although organic fertilizers are used extensively throughout
Communist China and painstaking efforts are made to collect every
scrap of waste, there is considerable loss because of improper
handling and storage. The government has been acutely aware of this
problem, and much emphasis has been placed ed on improving the methods
of collection, handling, and storage. 53 Because chemical ferti-
lizers will not be available in sufficient quantity to meet agri-
cultural needs of China within the next 10 to 15 years, it will be
necessary to increase the supply of organic fertilizers in order to
achieve the goals for agricultural production. Under both the First
and Second Five Year Plans the local governments and agricultural
producer cooperatives are given the responsibility of supplying the
bulk of the needed organic fertilizers through the increased breeding
of livestock and the planting of green manure crops. 54/
By the end of the First Five Year Plan the increase in the
supply of organic fertilizers will make possible an increase in the
production of grains of 6 million tons, of which 2.6 million tons
probably will consist of rice. Under the Second Five Year Plan the
estimated increase in the supply of organic fertilizers will make
possible an increase in the production of grains of 9.3 million tons,
including 1 million tons of rice.
Estimates of the uncultivated arable land in Communist China
vary widely, perhaps understandably, because only about 11 percent of
the total land area is cultivated. The government claims that there`~~
are 100 million hectares of arable land available for cultivation. L5
This is almost certainly an overstatement because most surveys made
in China before the Communists assumed control indicated that there
were only about 30 to 50 million hectares which might be reclaimed,
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including 20 million hectares of land suitable for double cropping.
According to a survey made in 1940 by the Manchukuo government,
Manchuria has a total of 16.4 million hectares of uncultivated arable
land. The fertility of this land is low, however, and development
would depend upon improvements in the soil. It is claimed that
Sinkiang, the other major area under consideration, has 17.5 million
hectares of wasteland available for reclamation. 56 The key factor
to the successful cultivation of this land would be irrigation.
Smaller areas of reclaimable wasteland are said to exist in many of
the traditional agricultural areas of China, prithsrily in Fukien,
Kansu, Kiangsi, Kiangsu, Kwangtung, and Tsinghai. 2/
1. First Five Year Plan (1953-57).
The minimum goal established by the First Five Year Plan
for the expansion of the area under cultivation was about 2.6 million
hectares. 58 Most of the reclamation was scheduled to be done by
state farms established in areas containing large tracts of wasteland.
The means planned for achieving this expansion were the employment of
machinery and the resettlement of population from heavily populated
areas. The increases in the area under cultivation in Communist China
in 1952-57 and that planned for 1962 are shown in Table 4.*
The increase of 2.6 million hectares in the area under
cultivation planned for 1957 would represent an increase of less than
2.5 percent more than the area under cultivation in 1952. The Land
Utilization Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture announced in November
1955 that 1.6 million hectares of wasteland had been reclaimed during
1953-55, principally in Heilungkiang. The same report stated that
"due to the growth of cooperative farming," the goal for land reclama-
tion by 1957 had been raised from 2.6 million hectares to 5 million
hectares. _59/
On the basis of the progress made through 1956, it appears
that the area reclaimed by the end of 1957 will be approximately 4.5
million hectares, or 500,000 hectares short of the revised goal of 5
million hectares set by the Five Year Plan. The failure to achieve
the revised.goal will be due primarily to a shortage in farm machinery
and other capital equipment necessary for large-scale land reclamation.
It has been estimated that the cost of reclaiming land runs about
600 to 750 yuan per hectare. 60 The investment of 2.47 billion yuan
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Increases in Area Under Cultivation in Communist China
1952-57 and 1962
Area Under Increase
Increase
Cultivation over 1952
over 1952
Year (Million Hectares) iMillion Hectares)
(Percent)
1952
107.9 a/
0
0
1953
108.5 J
0.6
0.6
1954
109.3
1.4
1.3
1955
110.2 J
2.3
2.1
1956
111.5 2/
3.6
3.3
1957 /
110.5 J
2.6
2.4
1957 J
112.9 J
5.0
4.6
1957 h
112.4
4.5
4.2
1962
u8.o J
10.1
9.4
a. 61
b. 2
c. Plan figure.
d. Original Five Year Plan.
e. L4J
f. Revised Plan.
9. L5/
h. Estimate of probable achievement.
i. The Plan indicated an increase of 5 percent over
1957, which was applied to the estimated probable
achievement in 1957 rather than to the planned goal for
the year.
in agriculture, water conservation, and forestry under the First Five
Year Plan probably will not permit the expenditures necessary for
large-scale reclamation projects at this time. Progress to date has
been due primarily to the intensive efforts of cooperative members on
easily accessible land.
Grains will account for approximately 3.8 million hectares
of the total increase in the area under cultivation, and cotton prob-
ably will account for the remaining 700,000 hectares.
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The Second Five Year Plan calls for an increase in arable
land of 5.6 million hectares, a gain of 5 percent over 1957. L6/ No
detailed information has been released regarding the amount of capital
investment which will be made available for this purpose.
It is estimated that 3.9 million hectares of this increase
in arable land will be sown to grains and 1.7 million hectares to
cotton.
Since most of the new land being reclaimed is too far
north for double cropping and is of questionable fertility, the yield
of grain probably will be no more than 1 ton per hectare. Such a
yield would result in a maximum increase in the production of grains
of about 3.8 million tons under the First Five Year Plan and 3.9 mil-
lion tons under the Second Five Year Plan. Increases in the produc-
tion of cotton due to increased area under cultivation is estimated
at 128,000 tons under the First Five Year Plan and 298,000 tons un-
der the Second Five Year Plan.
E. Mechanization.
1. First Five Year Plan (1953-57).
According to the First Five Year Plan, there are to be
290 machine tractor stations with 8,400 tractors*aand 141 mechanized
state farms with 5,146 tractors, a total of 13,546 tractors, by the
end of 1957. 67/ The number of tractors in Communist China, by type
of organization, in 1952-57 and the estimated number in 1962 are
shown in Table 5.**
Through the end of 1956, all tractors came from the Soviet
Bloc, with imports amounting to between 3,000 and 4,000 a year. Im-
ports are expected to increase to at least 5,000 in 1957 and to a
higher figure later. L8/
Plans to produce heavier and more complicated equipment
such as tractors, reapers, and combines in Communist China are still
* In terms of 15-horsepower units.
** Table 5 follows on p. 18.
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Number of Tractors in Communist China, by Type of Organization /
1952-57 and 1962
Year
On Machine
Tractor Stations
On State Farms
1952
0
1,531
1,531
1953
0
1,627 J
1,627
1954
778 c/
2,235 /
3,013
1955
2,300 e/
3,012 j/
5,312
1956
6,800
4,392 h
11,192
1957
8,4oo J
5,146
13,546
1962
N.A.
N.A.
125,000
a. In terms of 15-horsepower units.
b. 69
c. 7'0,~
d. L/
e. 72
f? 73
h.
i. Plan figure. 76
J. Plan figure.
k. Estimated. 78
in an early stage, and the production of these types probably will
remain insignificant for the next few years.
Under the First Five Year Plan, mechanization has played
a very minor role in agricultural production. By the end of 1956,
only 1.3 million hectares, or 1.2 percent of the farmland, in Communist
China were cultivated by tractors. 79
2. Second Five Year Plan (1958-62).
As of the end of 1956, the Chinese Communist leaders had
made no commitments as to the goals for mechanization under the Second
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Five Year Plan. Under the Twelve Year Draft National Program for Agri-
culture, the Minister of Agriculture aimed at mechanizing 47 percent
of the total farmland by 1967. The total demand for tractors was
placed at 1.2 million to 1.5 million, with replacements at the rate
of 120,000 to 130,000 a year. LO/
Such a demand would require a park of 170,000 tractors
in 1962 and 450,000 in 1967, entailing the addition of about 60,000
tractors per year. 81 It appears, however, that the Chinese Com-
munists intend to limit the production of tractors to factories now
being built. This policy would cause the production to become stable
by 1960 at about 22,500 tractors a year. The result would be a more
gradual buildup in the number of tractors from about 11,000 in 1956
to about 75,000 in 1960 and to possibly 125,000 by 1962. 82
A tractor park of this size might allow as much as 13
percent of the present area under cultivation to be mechanized by
1962. Since new land will be brought under cultivation in the mean-
time, the percentage of the area to be mechanized will be reduced
proportionately. It is doubtful whether more than 10 percent of the
area under cultivation will be mechanized by 1962.
A tractor park of 125,000 units would be insufficient to
carry out the larger projects for land-development upon which the
Draft National Program for Agriculture had depended for significant
increases in production. Such projects are unlikely to be undertaken
until after the conclusion of the Second or possibly the Third Five
Year Plan (1963-67). This is apparently in line with the statement
by Chou En-Lai to the Eighth Party Congress, in which he placed little
emphasis on mechanization as a means of increasing agricultural pro-
duction under the Second Five Year Plan.
Because of the methods of intensive cultivation employed
by the Chinese farmer, it is highly unlikely that mechanization will
improve the yields of crops, although the productivity of labor may
be raised. Until the surplus manpower in the rural areas of Communist
China can be absorbed by industry and other occupations, however,
savings in labor will not be significant. In any event, the cultiva-
tion of rice does not lend itself readily to mechanization. In grow-
ing wheat, coarse grains, and vegetables, machinery can be utilized
more effectively. Manchuria, Northwest China, and the North China
plain are suited to a high degree of mechanization.
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F. Modern Farm Implements.
The provision of better hand-drawn and horse-drawn implements
probably is more important to the Chinese Communists than is mechaniza-
tion. Because of the clumsy and crude farm tools used, the working
efficiency of Chinese human and animal labor is low. The primitive plow
used by the farmer and his ancestors for decades does slow work and does
not plow deeply or break the earth properly. A supply of modern hand
tools and animal-drawn or mechanical implements is essential. The
government is aware of this problem and is striving to increase the
production of modern agricultural implements. Requirements for 1956
and 1957 placed a heavy strain on the comparatively underdeveloped
agricultural equipment industry of Communist China, and it will be
some years before the type of equipment needed can be produced in any-
thing approaching adequate quantities.
The plan for this industry in 1956, as originally announced,
called for the production of about 3.5 million animal-drawn and man-
powered implements of 10 standard types, together with a large num-
ber of hand tools of 60 improved designs. L3/ Before the end of 1955,
however, the decision to accelerate the tempo of agricultural develop-
ment necessitated a considerable upward revision of these goals. The
industry was called upon to produce 5 million plows in 1956, mainly
of the double-furrow type, as well as 1 million lighter plows; 70,000
harrows; 110,000 sowing, threshing, and other similar machines; and
860,000 water-raising wheels. 84 In June 1956, plans for the pro-
duction of plows were revised downward, however, to 2.5 million units,
reportedly because of shortages in the supply of steel. L5J
The Chinese Communist press has devoted much editorial space
to reports of production of the "two-wheeled, double-bladed plow" and
the "two-wheeled, single-bladed plow." Most of the new plows delivered
in 1955 arrived in the latter part of the year and were not available
in appreciable numbers at plowing time. The most recent claims indi-
cate that production in 1955 amounted to less than 800,000 plows, of
which fewer than 438,000 were reported to have reached the prospective
users. 86
Although state-operated factories throughout Communist China
are producing two-wheeled plows* and the use of these plows is en-
couraged by the government, adequate draft power has not been avail-
able in many instances. The two-wheeled plow has the advantages of
* Including both single-bladed and double-bladed types.
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plowing deeply, breaking up the earth properly, and working at a good
rate. On the other hand, stronger draft power is necessary. The
strength and numbers of present breeds of livestock have not been
suitable. Two to three work animals are necessary to pull this type
of plow. Unless the vitality of the work animals is improved and un-
less their numbers are increased, the rapid utilization of modern im-
plements cannot be expected. In an attempt to improve this situation,
the government is striving to increase the number of draft animals,
but the program has proceeded very slowly. The number of draft animals
in 1955 was only 2.8 percent greater than in 1954, and the number in
1956 was only 0.2 percent greater than in 1955.
The two-wheeled plow not only has inadequate draft power but
is complicated to assemble and cannot be used on hilly or irrigated
fields. Moreover, most farmers do not know how to use the plow.
Finally, spare parts are not generally available. 88
It is claimed that deep plowing can increase yields by 10
percent. Until modern implements are made generally available,
however, along with sufficient draft power, only a slight increase
in yields can be expected by 1962.
Communist China has suffered continually from agricultural
losses caused by pests and plant diseases which have resulted in
famines every year in many areas. It has been estimated that the
annual loss caused by pests and plant diseases averages about 20
percent of the grain crops and about 30 percent of the cotton crop.
The only definite long-range program announced by the Chinese
Communists for the control of plant pests and diseases was described
in the Twelve Year Draft National Program for Agriculture. This Plan
called for the elimination of pests and plant diseases by 1967, start-
ing with a drive to exterminate rats, sparrows, flies, and mosquitoes.
In 1956 the state planned to set up 118 stations to report and
forecast the incidence of pests and plant diseases as well as 4,000 to
5,000 Pest and Disease Intelligence Points and 1,200 Basic Level Pest
and Disease Extermination Centers. ?/ Soviet technical advice has been
sought, and the USSR has helped with the spraying of insecticides from
aircraft.
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The success of any program for controlling pests and plant
diseases depends largely upon the supply of insecticides and fungi-
cides. More than 500,000 tons of insecticides were supplied in
1956, but this amount averages only about 1 ton per 200 hectares.
There is plenty of raw material for the production of fungicides,
but it is questionable whether the government is prepared to or-
ganize industrial capacity on a sufficiently large scale.
It is impossible to achieve the goal of eradicating all the
pests and plant diseases in Communist China in 12 years. The loss
of grains might be reduced, however, by 5 to 10 percent over this
period, and the loss of cotton by about 25 to 50 percent.
The Chinese Communists are taking a keen interest in the
breeding of plants and are planning to distribute selected seeds
throughout the country. It was claimed that 12.5 million hectares,
one-eighth of the area devoted to grains, would be sown to selected
seeds in 1956~an~d that 2 million hectares would be sown to selected
cotton seed. ZJ0
Any increase in production resulting from improved varieties
of seeds will not be significant. The effects of new varieties
generally result in qualitative improvements. To the extent that
new varieties increase the resistance of plants to disease and there-
by reduce losses, increases in production can be achieved. No improve-
ments, either quantative or qualitative, can be achieved, however, un-
til such new varieties are distributed to the farmers throughout Com-
munist China in sufficient quantities to replace the old varieties.
Estimated increases in the production of grains and cotton result-
ing from measures to increase production in Communist China in 1953-62
are shown in Table 6.* Barring natural calamities and assuming aver-
age weather conditions, the special measures taken to improve agri-
cultural production in Communist China probably will serve to in-
crease the production of grain by 21.7 million tons under the First
Five Year Plan and by 32.2 million tons under the Second Five Year
Plan. Such increases would raise the production of grains to
* Table 6 follows on p. 23.
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Estimated Increases in the Production of Grains and Cotton
Resulting from Measures to Increase Production
in Communist China /*
1953-62
Measure to Increase
Production
Rice
Other Grains
Total Grains
Cotton
First Five Year Plan
(1953-57)
Irrigation
5,000
300
5,300
127
Fertilizers
Chemical
4,400
200
4,600
75
Organic
2,600
3,400
6,000
0
Land reclamation and
mechanization b
0
3,800
3,800
128
Miscellaneous c
0
2,000
2,000
0
Second Five Year Plan
(1958-62)
Irrigation
10,000
300
10,300
291
Fertilizers
Chemical
4,000
1,700
5,700
176
Organic
1,000
8,300
9,300
0
Land reclamation and
mechanization b
0
3,900
3,900
398
Miscellaneous c
0
3,000
3,000
0
Total
15,000
17,200
32,200
765
Grand total
27,000
26,900
53,900
1,095
Footnotes for Table 6 follow on p. 24.
23 -
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Estimated Increases in the Production of Grains and Cotton
Resulting from Measures to Increase Production
in Communist China
1953-62
(Continued)
a. These estimates were derived by a complex methodology, impractical
to reproduce here. 50X1
b. Mechanization was computed as an input to land reclamation.
c. Including farm implements, control of pests and plant diseases,
and improved varieties of seeds.
185.6 million tons in 1957, or 96 percent of the goal of the First
Five Year Plan, and 217.8 million tons by 1962, or 87 percent of the
goal of the Second Five Year Plan.
The measures to increase agricultural production discussed above
would also make possible an increase in the production of cotton of
330,000 tons under the First Five Year Plan and 765,000 tons under
the Second Five Year Plan. Such increases would result in the ful-
fillment of the goals for the production of cotton of 1.6 million
tons in 1957 and 2.4 million tons in 1962. A comparison of reported
and planned production of grains and cotton with probable production
of grains and cotton in Communist China in 1952-57 and 1962 is shown
in Table 7.*
Regardless of official enthusiasm regarding the program for
socialization and the measures to increase agricultural production,
it appears doubtful whether the Chinese Communists can achieve their
planned goals for the production of grains. Increases in the pro-
duction of grains will fall short of the goals of the First Five Year
Plan and still further short of the goals of the Second Five Year
Plan. On the other hand, the goals for the production of cotton prob-
ably will be attained.
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Reported, Planned, and Probable Production
of Grains and Cotton in Communist China
1952-57 and 1962
Reported Production J
Probable Production J
Year
Grains
Cotton
Grains
Cotton
1952
163,900
1,305
163,900
1,305
1953
166,8oo
1,175
166,000
1,175
1954
168,800
1,065
164,000
1,065
1955
184,000
1,518
180,000
1,518
1956
192,000
1,46o
18o,ooo
1,460
1957
192,800 c
1,635 c/
185,600
1,635
1962
250,000 c
2,400 c
217,800
2,400
a. 91
b. See Table 6, p. 23, above.
c. Plan figure.
The success achieved thus far in increasing agricultural production
in Communist China has resulted primarily from the adoption of the
easiest measures, such as local projects, without investing adequate
capital in materials, such as chemical fertilizers, which will be
essential later. The lack of sufficient chemical fertilizers is the
primary reason for the probable failure to achieve the goals of the
Second Five Year Plan for the production of grains.
Mao Tze-tung emphasized that the basic premise of the Chinese
Communists in undertaking the collectivization of agriculture and
in intensifying efforts to increase agricultural production through
the cooperatives was to expand both the proportions and the absolute
amounts of grains and technical crops passing through state trading
channels in order to support the program for industrialization. It
is clear that the progress made toward socialization in 1956 is an
important step in achieving increased control over agriculture.
The new emphasis on rapidly extending socialization in order to
enforce the adoption of measures for increasing production, as well
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as for maximizing agricultural procurement, may result in substantial
progress toward the realization of Chinese Communist goals. It will
require a number of years, however, to gauge effectively the success
of the program for socialization, and in evaluating the results it
will be difficult to separate the effects of socialization upon agri-
cultural production from such natural factors as weather. In any
event, the achievement of significant increases in agricultural pro-
duction will depend primarily upon the extent to which the government
is willing to invest in the program, particularly on the extent of
the investment in chemical nitrogenous fertilizers.
The increases in the production of grain through the end of the
Second Five Year Plan should be sufficient to maintain the supply of
food per capita at present levels of consumption. After 1962, how-
ever, unless production can be increased at a rate which equals or
exceeds the rate of growth in population, which is now 1.5 to 2 per-
cent per year, Communist China may be forced to become a net importer
of food.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/22
CIA-R DP79RO1141A000900050002-4
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/22
CIA-R DP79RO1141A000900050002-4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/22
CIA-R DP79RO1141A000900050002-4
 CIA-R DP79RO1141A000900050002-4
5
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/05/22
CIA-R DP79R01141A000900050002-4