REGIONAL PRODUCT IN THE USSR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01141A000500090002-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 156
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 20, 2013
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: July 27, 1955
• Content Type: REPORT

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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
32
REGIONAL PRODUCT IN THE USSR
CIA/RR 59
27 Jul; 1955
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
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WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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ECONOMIC INTFTNIGENCE REPORT
REGIONAL PRODUCT IN THE USSR
CIA/RR 59
(ORR Project 10.431)'
NOTICE
The data and conclusions contained in this report
do not necessarily represent the final position of
ORB and, should be regarded as provisional only and
subject to revision. Comments and data which may
be available to the user are solicited.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
S-E-C-R-E-T
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FOREWORD
This report is essentially a regional analysis of the gross -
national product of the USSR. It may be said to give a third
dimension to the understanding of the Soviet economy 'by adding
estimates of the distribution of output geographically to estimates
of its distribution over time. and among industries. It also has
been designed to provide the intelligence community with background
material on the 15'economic regions of the USSR.
Members of the Geographic Research Area also contributed to the section
In the body of the report dealing with the origin and significance of
the economic regions.
S-E-C-R-E-T
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CONTENTS
Summary and Conclusions
? Page
1
I. Soviet Regional Structure 3
A. Origin 3
B. Meaning and Significance 4
II. Conceptual Framework 7
A. Application to Interregional Comparisons 8
B. Interpretation of Interregional Comparisons 9
III. Significant Empirical Results 11
A. Introduction 11
B. Regional Shares in Production in 1953 12
?C. Trends in Gross Regional Product, 1938-53 22
D. Changing Composition of Regional Production 23
E. Per Capita Regional Product 26
F. Policy.Implications - 27
Appendixes
Appendix A. Geographic Briefs of the Economic Regions
of the USSR 29
I. Economic Region Ia 31
II. Economic Region Ib 34
III. Economic Region IIa 37
IV. Economic Region lib 39
V. Economic Region III 42
VI. Economic Region IV, 44
VII. Economic Region V 46
VIII. Economic Region VI 49
IX. Economic Region VII 52
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Page
X. Economic Region VIII
54
XI. Economic Region IX
57
XII. Economic Region Xa
I
58
XIII. Economic Region Xb
60
XIV. Economic Region XI
62
XV. Economic Region XII
65
Appendix B.
Methodology
69
Appendix C.
Calculations of Value Added by Sectors
and Branches, 1951
77
Appendix D.
Statistical Tables
79
Regional Distribution
by Industrial Origin
and 1953
2. Regional Distribution
by Industrial Origin
and 1953
Tables
of Soviet Gross National Product
(in Rubles), 1938, 1948, 1951,
of Soviet Gross National Product
(in Percent), 1938, 19480 1951,
3. Distribution of Soviet Gross National Product and Gross
Regional Product by Industrial Origin, 1938, 1948, 1951,
and 1953
4. Comparative Growth of Output by Region in the USSR,
1938, 1948) 1951, and 1953
5. Per Capita Gross National Product and Gross Regional
Product, 1938, 1948) 1951, and 1953
6. Shifts in the Regional Distribution of Industrial Activity
in the USSR, 1938, 1948, 1951, and 1953
7. Population and Area of the Economic Regions of the USSR,.
1953
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8. Regional Distribution of Soviet Production by Commodity
Group, 1938
9. Regional Distribution of Soviet Production by Commodity
Group) 1948
10. Regional. Distribution of Soviet Pro4uct1on by Commodity
Group, 1951
U. Regional Distribution of Soviet Production by Commodity
Group, 1953
12. Regional Distribution of Soviet Production by Industry)
1938
88
96
103
110
-13. Regional Distribution of Soviet Production by Industry,
1948 112
14. Regional Distribution of Soviet Production by Industry)
1951 114
15. Regional Distribution of Soviet Production by Industry,
1953
16. Regional Distribution of Soviet Production, Value Added
by Industry) 1938
17. Regional Distribution of Soviet Production, Value Added
by Industry, 1948'
18. Regional-Distribution of Soviet Production, Value Added
by Industry, 1951
117
119
121
.123
19. Regional Distribution of Soviet Production) Value Added
by Industry, 1953 125
20. Regional Distribution of Soviet Production, Value Added
by Major Industrial Group, 1938 127
21. Regional Distribution of Soviet Production, Value Added
by Major Industrial Group, 1948 131
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22. Regional Distribution of Soviet Production,
by Major Industrial Group, 1951
23. Regional Distribution of Soviet Production,
by Major Industrial Group, 1953
24. Population of the USSR by Regions, 1938, 1948, 1951,
and 1953
Value Added
Value Added
Illustrations
Page
135
139
143,
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
USSR: Economic Regions
USSR: Regional Distribution of Gross National
Product, 1953
Following Page
2
Figure 3.
USSR: Regional Distribution of Gross National
Product, by Sector of Origin, 1938 and 1953 .
?
?
22
Figure 4.
USSR: Regional Distribution of Manufacturing
Production (in Percent), 1938 and 1953
Figure 5.
USSR: Regional Distribution of Agricultural
Production (in Percent), 1938 and 1953
24
Figure 6.
USSR: Regional Distribution of Population
(in Percent), 1938 and 1953
26
Figure 7.
USSR: Terrain and Economic Regions
68
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CIA/RR 59 S-E-C-R-E-T
(ORB Project 10)431)
REGIONAL PRODUCT IN THE USSR*
Summary and Conclusions
Planning effort in the USSR has aimed at a balanced development
of regional resources and the construction of an integrated and
relatively self-sufficient economy in each region of the USSR. The
success of this effort since 1938 is evidenced in the more rapid
rates of growth and the increasing proportion of total productive
activity taking place, in the eastern sections of the country. It
also is evidenced in the fact that since 1938 in every region manu-
facturing, agriculture ,and services have been brought into better
balance.**
Since the late 1930's the Soviet policy of regional economic
development has caused an increasing proportion of the total output
of the USSR to be produced in the previously undeveloped area
stretching from the Urals to,the Pacific. Meanwhile, the relative
importance of the older regional economies, the Ukraine and the
Central Industrial Region, while still dominant, has been declining.
This estimated shift of the center of production is especially
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent
the best judgment of ORB as of 1 December 1954.
** The total volume of goods and services produced in each economic
region of the USSR (gross regional product) in 1938, 1948, 1951, and
1953 is estimated by aggregating, for each region in each year, the
value added to materials and supplies by the production of each
industry. This method of constructing the measures of gross regional
product also yields estimates of the structure of each regional
economy: that is, of the relative importance of each industry in the
total output of the region. Since gross national product is by
definition the sum of the total volume of production of every region
in the country) the estimates of gross regional product further re-
veal the regional distribution of gross national product and of its
rate of growth.
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marked in manufacturing. In 1938, only 15 percent of the total of
manufactured goods was produced in the Urals, Siberia, and the Far
'East; in 1953 the proportion had nearly doubled, being just less
than 30 percent. Between 1938 and 1953 the proportion of total
manufacturing output contributed by the Ukraine and the Central
Industrial Region declined from less than 60 to 4o percent. The
relative position of the various regions in the total of agri-
cultural output has changed little since before World War
although here, too, evidence appears of a slight eastward shift
in the center of production.
The most rapidly growing regions were thus those in the eastern
sections of the country, which previously had been undeveloped.
There, average annual rates of growthfor the 15 years covered
ranged from 5 to lo percent as compared with less than 4 percent
for the entire country, and about 2 percent for the older areas of
the Ukraine and the Central Industrial Region. In the eastern
sections, as in the entire country, manufacturing expanded most
rapidly and accounted for an increasing share of regional product,
while services expanded moderately. Total agricultural output,
after recovering from the effects of World War II, has only recently
regained its prewar level.
In all regions, economic development since World War II has
brought a decline in the relative importance of agricultural pro-
duction and An increase in that of manufacturing. In most cases,
not only the recently developed regions in the east but also the
older industrialized areas of the west have achieved a more balanced
economy, with the 'contributions to gross national product from manu-
facturing, agriculture, and the-services becoming more nearly equal.
Thus the eastward shift in the center of productive activity serves
to further the Soviet policy of regional development and the dictates
of strategic security.
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