THE OUTLOOK FOR MEXICO

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A010200040005-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 16, 2014
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: August 13, 1957
• Content Type: NIE

Declassified and Approved For Release @50-Yr 2014/01/16: CIA-RDP79R01012A010200040005-1
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SE ri NIE 81-57
13 August 1957
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
NUMBER 1- 5 7
? THE OUTLOOK FOR MEXICO
(Advance Summary and Conclusions)
Submitted by the
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
The following intellicence orcanizations participated in the
Preparation of this estirate: The Central Intelli,ence ALency
and the intellicence orLanizations of the Derartuents of
State, the Amy, the Navy, the Air Force, and The Joint Staff.
Concurred in by the
INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMIUTTEE
on 13 August 1957. Concurrinc. were the Special Assistant, In-
telligence, Departneut.of State; the Assistant Chief. of Staff,
Intelligence, Departent of the Army; .the Director of Naval
Intelligence; the Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, USAF;
and. the Deputy Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff. The
Atomic Energy Camission Representative to theIAC and the
Assistant Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation, abstained,
the subject being Outside of their jurisdiction.
sg?
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CENTRAL INTE.LLIGENC'E AGENCY
13August 1957
SUBJECT: NIE C1-57: THE OUTLOOK FOR MUXICO
THE PROBLEM
To estimate the situation and probable developments in Mexico
over the next few years.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
A. Unlike most states in Latin America) Mexico has in recent
years developed a reassuring degree of political maturity and economic
viability. Organized along federal lines, the country is in fact run
by an administration which is highly centralized and controlled by a
president elected under virtually a one-party system. The party is
organized in such a way as to be responsive to most of the important
groups in the country. In addition: it has gained wide support
through a moderately progressive program of economic and social
improvellent.
? /224T
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D. The political outlook is one of continuing stability and
moderation. This pattern is supported by the small but rapidly
growing middle class which is exerting increased political influence.
Although there is still strong contrast between the poverty of the
majority and the wealth of the few, labor has so far accommodated
itself to the government's program of balanced economic development.
The army, which does not play an active role in politics, accepts
the constitutional processes. National elections are scheduled
for July 1950, when the presidential candidate selected by the
incumbent (Ruiz Cortines), in consultation with the two ex-presidents
(Alenan and Cardenas), is virtually certain to be elected.
C. The economic outlook is also good.. Minerals continue to
be an important export, but in recent years, the increase in the
export of cotton and coffee is especially noteworthy. In 1956,
the latter accounted respectively for 45 percent and 15 percent
of total exports. The bulk of Mexico's foreign trade is with
the US. In the last few years tourism has made up the deficit
in Mexico's balance of payments.
D. The Mexican government adopts a tolerant attitude toward
Communism. This toleration, which in large part reflects the conbina*
tion of liberalism and Marxist socialism of the Mexican Revolution,
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would probably change if Communism became a serious internal
threat. While Bloc activities in Mexico are on the increase, the
local Communist movement is only a negligible factor in the
country's political life.
E. Mexico supports the idea of hemisphere defense. However,
unless Mexico considered that its national security were threatened,
it probably would not agree to the use of its territory by US forces.
F. Mexico will face certain economic and political problems
during the next few years:
1. In the economic field Mexico will have to contain
incipient inflationary pressures. It may have difficulty in
securing a continuing ready market for Mexican exports. A
rapidly increasing population will probably strain Mexico's
resources.
2. Mexico is a haven for Latin Ar.lerican exiles and a
principal center of Bloc activities in Latin America. Its tolerant
attitude toward this situation will probably cause friction with
other countries in the hemisphere.
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SE
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Ld)
S RET
3. While Mexico will remain generally cooperative
with the US, there are certain sources of irritation between the
two countries. The most important of these arise out of the ?
seizure of US vessels fishing in waters claimed by Mexico:
the proposed increase in US import duties on Mexican minerals,
and the migration of Mexican: agricultural laborers for temporary
employment in the US..
Declassified and Approved For Release @50-Yr 2014/01/16: CIA-RDP79R01012A010200040005-1