NIE 71.1-56: THE OUTLOOK FOR MOROCCO - TERMS OF REFERENCE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A010100040013-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 4, 2014
• Sequence Number: 13
• Publication Date: September 13, 1956
• Content Type: MEMO

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,CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE -AGENCY
13 September 1956
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mr. Allan Evans (OIR)
Colonel H. J. Lemley, Jr.,. USA (ACSI)
Captain W. S. Howell, USN (ONI)
Colonel W. B. Sawyer, USAF (AFOIN 2B2)
Colonel C. H. Dayhuff, -Jr., USA (JIG)
SUBJECT: NIE 71.1-56: THE OUTLOOK FOR MOROCCO - Terms of Reference
1. Forwarded herewith are terms of reference for NIE 71.1-56.
These were approved by the IAC representatives on 13 September.
2. While all agencies are invited to contribute to all
questions raised in the terms of reference, State has the primary
responsibility for submitting contributions to Sections I,
VI, and VII. Defense agencies have primary responsibility for
submitting contributions to IV. State and Defense contributions
are requested on Sections V, VIII, and IX.
3. All contributions are due in ONE by Friday, November 9, 19560
Distribution "B"
WILLIAM P. BUNDY
Deputy Assistant Director
National Estimates
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
13 September 1956
SUBJECT: TERMS OF REFERENCE: NIE 71.1-56: THE OUTLOOK FOR MOROCCO
THE PROBLEM
To assess prospects for Moroccan stability and viability; and
to estimate the probable orientation and policies Of an independent'
Morocco,
SCOPE
NIE 714,56 should be"open-ended"; it Should? concentrate on
developments in the area over the next year or two) but also project .
as far as possible into the future.
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THE INDEPENDENT STATUS OF MOROCCO
France and Spain,
Discuss briefly Morocco's relations With/ and the status of
and Spanish-Moroccan
French-Moroccan/negotiations. What limitations, if any, are there on
Morocco's independence?
POLITICAL SITUATION AND TRENDS
A. The Present Moroccan Government
character
1. What are the current :1 and composition of the Moroccan
government? Huw circumscribed are its powers? What
progress has been made in creating new administrative
organizations? In drafting popular economic and social
programs?
2. What is the present internal .security situation? What
-armed forces can the government rely on? What is. the
current political status of the. Liberation Army?
B. The Role of the Sultan
1.. What is the Sultan's present position? What is the
Strength of his popular support? Of his political
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Support? ,What influence does he possess among
tribes of the interior?
2. Whst is the Sultan's likely role? What are his probable
political views and intentions? To what extent uight
he seek outside assistaLee against nationalist extremists?
C. Political Parties and Grou,s
1. What is the current position of the Istiglal-Islah Party?
? issues is it likely to
On what/have majority support among the Moroccan popula-
tion? What is its strength among the labor unions? To
what extent is it split into moderate and extremist
elements? What is the likelihood of a deeper schism?
a. What is the position of Allal el-Fassi in the party?
Is he likely to retain his status as the foremost
Istiqlal leader? What are his likely views and
policies?
b. What are the strength and leadership of the moderate ,
Istiglal wing?
c. Are there important party elements outside the
moderate-extremist categories?
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2. What is the present strength of the PDI? How does it differ
in composition and outlook from the Istiglal? To what extent
is it regarded as under French influence? What is its likely
future role?
3.. What is the status of the "Independents"? Are they largely
personal supporters of the Sultan? Are they likely to form a
political party under his sponsorship?
4. What is the position of the Liberation Army leaders? To what
extent are they distinguishable from Istiglal extremists? Will
they be able to preserve an independent status in view of the
merger of their forces with the Royal Army?
5. What are the nature and likely development of other political
factors? What are the composition and role of the labor
unions? What is the status of the various tribal groups?
6. What is the position of the Communists? What are their numbers?
What are their contacts with other Communist parties and the
Bloc? What success have they had in associating with the
nationalists? To what degree have they infiltrated the Istiglal
or other political organizations? What strength do they have
in the labor unions? Whet is the likely degree of Communist
influence over the next few years?
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D. French Influence and Policies
are . probable future positions
1. What / the current .and /.. of French officialsand
advisors in Morocco? What is the degree of colon
strength and influence? What is the outlook for
the colons?
2. What are likely French policies toward Morocco? To
what degree will the French goliernment attempt to
maintain protection for colon and French interests?
What are the likely minil-um French conditions for
continued aid to Morocco? What are the likely French
proposals for associating Morocco with the West?
E. Moroccan Political Trends
1. What are the likely composition and douestic policies
of Moroccan governments over the next year or two?
Will the Sultan retain all legal power in his own
hands? Will he insist on coalition governnents? Will
he accept an all-Istiglal government? Will he attenpt
to exclude the Isticlial fro': any role in the government?
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2. What are the prospects for absolute rule by the Sultan?
For a constitutional monarchy? For a republic?
3. What is the likelihood of serious civil strife?
III. ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND TRENDS
A. What is the -resent economic situation in Morocco?
1. What natural resources are available? Are being developed?
What are industrial jand agricultural conditions? Develop-
ment plans? What proportion of the population is
unemployed? What is the foreign trade pattern? What is
the balance of payments?
2. What is the importance of. French investment and enterprise
in Morocco? What is the extent of French financial
aid to the Moroccan government? What is the economic
role of the colons?
What is the impact of the US bases on the Moroccan edonomy?
What is the size of local US military. expenditures?
Of expenditures by US personnel? ? What .are their economic -
effects? What proportion of the Moroccan labor force
is employed on the bases?
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B. What are the prospects for outside economic assistance? What
outside economic aid does Morocco presently receive? What is
the likely level of French aid? How adequate will it be? What
assistance is Morocco likely to ask of the US? Is it likely to
seek aid from the Bloc, and under what circumstances?
C. What are likely Moroccan government policies? Toward: (1)
remaining in the franc a2ea; (2) the Algeciras "open door";
(3) establishment of a free trade zone on Moroccan soil;
(4) economic relations with Bloc countries; and (5) colon
holding's?
D. What are the prospects for economic growth? To what extent will
economic growth depend on outside assistance?
IV. DEFENSE ISSUES
A. What is the status of the Moroccan Armed Forces? What are the
size, composition, quality, and disposition of the Royal Moroccan
Army? What other armed forces exist? What are likely future
developments regarding the armed forces?
B. What French forces remain in Morocco? What is their mission?
Their disposition? What is the likely Moroccan attitude toward
them?
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C. What Spanish forces are there in Morocco? Are they wholly
confined to the preSidios? What is the likely Moroccan
attitude toward those forces?
D. What is the US military osition in the area?
1. What are the size and composition of US forces? What
is the Moroccan attitude toward .them?
2. What facilities are currently used by the US? What
is the status of the bases and of other facilities?
What are the nature and adequacy of present security
arrangements?
What is the extent of US dependence on Moroccan
personnel? Would strikes and Other labor disturbances
seriously affect the US position?
V. MOROCCAN POLICIES TOWARD THE US BASES
A. What is the Moroccan attitude toward the base question? How
does the Moroccan government regard the US position pending
negotiations? Is it likely to refuse to include France in
such talks?
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B. What are the likely Moroccan conditions for continued US use
of the bases? Will Morocco insist on high rental payments as
well as economic aid? How long a period is it likely to
contract for? Under what circumstances would it raise its
price? Reduce its price? What other issues, such as status
of forces$ are likely to be important considerations?
C. What are the likely security arrangements for the bases? Will
Morocco insist on providing security withits own forces? What
fox-des would be available? What would be their effectiveness?
VI. PROBABLE MOROCCAN FOREIGN POLICIES
A. Toward Algeria? Will Morocco persist in extending both moral
and material support to the Algerian rebels? What is the
likelihood that Moroccan government forces might clash with
French troops on the border? Is Morocco likely to persist in
attempts to adjust the border in its favor? What would be
its probably relations with a semi-independent Algeria?
B. Toward France? What are the chances that French-Moroccan
relations can be placed on a mutually satisfactory basis over
the next several years? ?What territorial claims is Morocco
likely to make against France? What ties might Morocco accept
with France? In the absence of such an accord$ what would be
the likely Moroccan actions vis-a-vis French and colon interests?
Would the US be asked to play the 'honest broker" role?
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C. Toward Spain? What is the likely Moroccan policy regarding
Ceuta and Melilla, etc? Regarding Ifni, Southern Morocco,
and Spanish Sahara? Will Morocco encourage Spanish attempts
to act as a bridge between the Arab world and the West?
D. Toward the Arab League States? What are the likely
repercussimi of the Suez problem? le Novocco like1y to
join the Arab League? What are it3 probable relations with
Egypt? Under what circumstances would it welcome increased
Egyptian influence? Reject Egyptian influence?
E. Toward the Soviet Bloc? What is Morocco's likely policy
toward Bloc diplomatic representation? What are the prospects
for Bloc influence on Moroccan policies? Under what circum-
stances might Morocco seek assistance from the Bloc?
. Toward International Organizations? What are Morocco's
likely relations with NATO? What is the likely policy toward
Tangier?
0. Toward the US? What is the likely status? of relations between
Morocco and the US? The outlook for the preservation of US
interests in the area?
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VII, LONGER-TERM PROSPECTS FOR MOROCCO
In the light of the above factors, discuss briefly prospects for
the stability and viability of Morocco, and for its orientation
toward the West.
VIII. POST-MORTEM ON NIE 71.1-56
IX VALIDITY STUDY OF NIE 71-55 (Insofar as it pertains to Morocco)
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