NIE 82-55: GUATEMALA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A006100030021-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 1, 2013
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: April 19, 1955
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
19 April 1955
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mr. Allan Evans (alit)
Colonel Paul S. Reinecke, USA (G-2)
Captain B. E. Wiggin, USN (ONI)
Colonel Willis B. Sawyer, USAF (AF0IN-2B2)
Colonel Floyd E. Dunn, USA (JIG)
SUBJECT : NIE 82-55: Guatemala
1. The attached terns of reference were agreed on at
the meeting of the IAC representatives on Monday, 18 April.
2. All agencies are invited to contribute to any section
within their competence to do so.
3. It is requested that Service contributions be received
in this office by the close of business on Tuesday, 24 May.
State's contribution is due on Tuesday, 31 May.
Distribution "Bn
bJ
( (
PAUL A. BCREL
Deputy Assistant Director
National Estimates
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
19 April 1955
SUBJECT: TERMS OF REFERENCE: NIE 82-55: GUATEMALA
THE PROBLEM
To estimate the present situation in Guatemala and probable
developments, with particular reference to the stability of the
Castillo regime.
NOTE
The last fully developed estimate on Guatemala was NIE-84,
published in May 1953. The situation to which it W8S addressed
was radically altered by the anti-Communist revolution of 1954.
The treatment of Guatemala in NIE 80-54, "The Caribbean Republics,"
24 August 1954, was necessarily summary and inconclusive. There
is, therefore, a need for a, new and thorough examination of the
Guatemalan situation.
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QUESTIONS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM
A. BACKGROUND
1. What were the aspirations of the Guatemalan Revolution of
1944? To what extent do these aspirations still command
the loyalty of politically articulate Guatemalans? To
what extent has the Revolution of 1944 been discredited by
experience under Arevalo and Arbenz?
2. How was it that the Communists were able to gain control of
the Arbenz administration? How many actual Communists
were there in Guatemala in early 1954? How did the
Communists exercise their influence and control? To what
extent do agrarian and urban workers still regard the
Communists as benefactors?
3. What anti-Communist elements were there in Guatemala before
the 1954 revolution? What were their motivations? How
active were they? What were their attitudes toward the
Revolution of 1944?
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4. What was the attitude of the Army toward Arbenz and toward
the Communists? Why did the Army not act against the
Communists before Castillo Armas did? Why did it not
defend the regime against Castillo Armes? Why did it
turn against Arbenz? Why did it admit Castillo Armas
to the Junta?
B. POLITICAL
1. What is the present political (Constitutional) status of
the Castillo Arms administration?
2. What are the national policies and objectives of the Castillo
regime? Do they differ from previous long-term Guatemalan
objectives?
3. What are the personal characteristics of Castillo Armes,
as regards his qualifications for the presidency? Haw
great was his personal popularity when he assumed the
presidency? What is the situation now? Is the difference,
if any, attributable to his personal conduct or to cir-
cumstances beyond his control?
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What political and social elements support the Castillo
regime? For what reasons? What is their strength and
popular influence? How firm is their support? Have any
former supporters been alienated? Has any new support
been recruited?
5. How are decisions reached within the Castillo administration?
Who are Castillo's principal advisers? How much influence
does each have with him? What are their special interests
and attitudes? In particular, what are their attitudes
toward: (a) the Revolution of 1944 in general; (b) agrarian
reform; (c) labor organization; (d) civil supremacy; and
(e) economic nationalism? What are Castillo's personal
views on these subjects?
6. What actions has the administration actually taken with
respect to: (a) constitutional reform; (b) agrarian reform;
(c) organized labor; (d) control of the Army; and (e) a
settlement with the United Fruit Company?
7. What is the attitude of the Army toward the Castillo
regime? What has been the effect of Castillo's break
with Monzon? Can Castillo rely on the continued support
of the Army?
14.
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8. What political and social elements are opposed to the
Castillo regime? For what reasons? What is their
strength and popular influence? How intense is their
opposition? To what extent is political opposition feasible
in Guatemala at present? How else can disaffection express
itself?
9. What action has the Castillo regime taken against Communists?
-- against other adherents of Arbenz? -- against other
political opponents? Do such elements constitute a present
danger to the security of the regime? In what circumstances
might they become dangerous? In particular, what are
present Communist capabilities in Guatemala? Is there
a Communist underground active within the country? How
effective is it? Have the Communists any guerrilla
potential through the leadership of agrarian workers?
What connections have they with Communists in neighboring
and other countries?
C. ECONOMIC
1. What is the present state of the Guatemalan economy? What
are the most pressing economic problems? In particular, what
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is the effect of Guatemala's dependence on the export of
coffee? of the present and anticipated state of the
international coffee market? -- of the attitude and
policies of Cuatemalan coffee growers? -- of government
policy with respect to coffee?
2. What are the economic position and prospects of the
United Fruit Company in :tuatemala?
3. What is the government's capabity to plan and carry
out programs for economic relief and development?
4. What has been the nature and extent of international
assistance to Guatemala, both private and public? --
loans, technical assistance, communications and power
development, UFCO plans, petroleum exploration? To
what extent can Guatemala attract foreign private
investment? To what extent can it absorb such in-
vestment? Is the Castillo regime likely to resort
to expropriations?
5. Are Guatemala's present economic problems a matter of
temporary readjustment, or will Guatemala require continuing
financial aid over an extended period?
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D. MILITARY
1. What is the present strength and effectiveness of the
Guatemalan armed forces? Are they capable of maintaining
internal security against internal conspiracies? --
a guerrilla uprising of agrarian workers? -- any likely
filibustering attempt from neighboring countries?
2. What is the status of Guatemala with respect to Hemisphere
defense and US military assistance?
E. FOREIGN RELATIONS
1. Whet is the attitude of the present Guatemala government
toward the .United States? -- the other Caribbean republics?
-- Venezuela? -- ODECA?-- the OAS? -- the UM
2. To what extent was the present government involved in
the attempt to overthrow the Figueres regime in Costa
Rica? Is it likely to become involved in the internal
affairs of Honduras? -- of El Salvador? -- of Nicaragua?
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3. Is the present government likely to press the Belize
issue?
F. PROSPECTS
1. Is the judgment expressed in the first sentence of
paragraph 29, NIE 80-54, still considered valid?
2. Is the Castillo regime likely to be able to maintain
itself in power through 1955? -- through 1956? --
through the expiration of Castillo's term of office
in 1960? What are the essential conditions which will
determine whether it survives or falls?
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