NEW ESTIMATE ON INDONESIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A006000040011-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 1, 2013
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: December 6, 1954
• Content Type: MEMO

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,
6 December 1954
MEMORANDUM FOR THE .BOARD
SUBJECT : New estimate on Indonesia
ATTACHMENT: Draft Terms of Reference
1. A new estimate on Indonesia, replacing NIB 65-54 of May
1954, is presently scheduled for preparation in the second quarter
of 1955. However, we have noted widespread concern over Indonesian
developments among members of the intelligence community, especially
during the recent preparation of NIE 10-7-542 as well as sentiment
on their part for preparation of a new estimate in the first, rather
than the second quarter of 1955.
2. We agree that an Indonesian estimate should be produced in
the first quarter and have recommended an appropriate change in the
Estimative Program now in the process of Quarterly revision. We
feel we should get an early start on the paper, thus allowing time
for a thdrough job on the contributions while meeting a publication
date of around 15 February 19550 Acordingly, we submit the attached
draft Terms of Reference for Board action.
James C. Graham
STAT
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
6 December 1954
SUBJECT: TERMS OF REIPERENCE: NIE 6545: PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN
INDONESIA THROUGH 1955
THE PROBLEM
To assess-the current situation and to eSiimate probable develop-
ments in Indonesia through 1955, with particular respect to Communist
strength and influence.
QUESTIONS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM
I. PRESENT SITUATION
With respect to the following questions, indicate in particular
the significant developments therein of the past seven months*:
A, Government and Politics
10 How efficient is the present government? How successful
has it been in imposing its will on the country at large?
In carrying out its desired programs?
2o What is the present balanceof political forces?
*
The period since the publication of NIE 65-54: "The Probable Outlook
in. Indonesia through 1954," 19 May 19540
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a. What is the composition and cohesion of the
government parties? Of the opnosition parties?
b. What policy and personality issues divide the
government and non-government partiee
, 3. Who are the present dominant personalities in
Indonesian political life? What, briefly, are their
innuendo, characters, abilities and political orientations?
4. How accurately does present party representation reflect
literate public opinion? What attitudes exist toward
the government? How responsive is government and
politics to these attitudes?
B. The Communist Situation
1. What is the present nature and extent of Communist
influence in parliament? To what extent is the
government dependent upon PKI parliamentary support?
What influence does the PKI have in other political
parties?
2. What influence do Communists or believed Communists,
have in the cabinet? In the bureaucracy?
3. To what extent can it be established that Communists,
or believed Communists, have been influencing government'
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policy? To what extent have government policies been
paralleling, or benefiting Communist policies?
What changes have taken place in Communist influence
in the armed forces? In the police forces?
5. Who are the principal Communists, or believed Communists,
in Indonesian government and politics?
What changes have taken place in the numerical strength
of the PKI? In its estimated voting strength?
7. What, changes have taken place in Communist influence
in such groups as labor, veterans, youth, and peasants?
8. What progress have Communist-oriented officials made
in organizing and arming PERBEPSI?
9. What changes have taken place in Communist influence
in dissident and guerrilla groups?
100 What changes have taken place in Communist objectives
and programs?
11. What developments have occurred in PKI relations with
Moscow and Peiping?
12. What are present Communist capabilities to take over
the government, either constitutionally or by force?
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13. In sum, what has been the nature and extent of Communist
success in increasing Communist influence in Indonesia
since the present government took office in July 1953?
What trends exist at present? To what extent, if at.
all have Communist advances awakened non-Communist
elements, in and out of government, to the dangers
involved?
C0 Foreign Affairs
1. What have been the principal developments of the past
seven months in the governments orientation? Its
principal foreign policies?
2. In what manner have the actions and attitudes of the
government, and of the public, been affected in the
past seven months by the Geneva Conference? The
Manila Pact? Other Asian developments?
D.- Economic Situation
What have been the principal developments of the past
seven months with respect to foreign trade and balance of
payments? Foreign aid and foreign investment? Fiscal
policies? Price and consumption levels?
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E. Military and Police Forces
In addition to Communist influence discussed above, what
have been the principal developments of the past seven
months with respect to organization of the military and
police forces? Effectiveness of these forces?
II. PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS
1. Assuming the present government or one of similiar
composition remains in office until elections are held,
sometime in 1955, What trends are likely in this interval
with respect to:
a. Communist .influence in government?
b. Government efficiency and effectiveness?
co Government policy toward foreign capital and
economic assistance? Toward foreign military Assistance?
do Suppression of dissident and guerrilla groups?
a. Creation of a stronger and more unified opposition
to the government?
f. Preparations and prospects for national elections
in 1955?
2. What is the likelihood that the present government will
fall?, prior to elections, as a result of adverse Farlii-
mentary action? Should it fall:
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a. What would be the probable political complexion
of a subsequent government?
b. What would be the principal domestic and foreign
policies of such a government?
Should the present government or one of similiar
composition continue in power until the eve of elections
sometime in 1955, what is the likelihood that non-
Communist opposition elements will attempt extra-legal
action during this period to gain power?
a. What would be the most likely event or series of
events which would touch off an attempted coup?
b., Who might be the leaders 9 and what military and
political groups might join in the attempted coup?
libat would be their strength?
co Would such a coup be successful?
do What would be the composition of a resultant
government if such a coup were successful? What
domestic and foreign policies might be expected?
So What affect would a successful non-Communist coup
have on Communist capabilities and subsequent
courses of action in Indonesia?
f. What developments might be expected in Indonesia
should a coup fail?
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Elections
?
1. What is the likelihood that elections will be held
in 1955? What will be their probable outcome?
29 How would each of these election contingencies:
(a) opposition election victory; (lb) election results
which continued approximately the present political
balance; or (0) great Communist election gaiasi affect:
a. Subsequent political stability?
b. Governmental efficiency and composition?
c. Subsequent government domestic and foreign policies?
d. Communist capabilities and courses of action in
Indonesia?
Go Non-Communist capabilities and courses of action
In Indonesia?
3. What would be the consequences of postponement of the
elections beyond 1955?
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