NIE 80-54: THE CARIBBEAN REPUBLICS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A004600020009-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 8, 2013
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: March 30, 1954
• Content Type: MEMO

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kj? 'EwAR 3 1 1954
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
30 March 1954
MEMORANDUM FOR: W. Allan -Evans (Ota)
Colonel W. IT. Bannig, WA (G.2)
Captain Allan L. Reed, USN (OBI)
Colonel Charles F. Gillis, USAF (Ar0m2B0
C ptain Ray Vh1pass, USN (JIG)
SUBJECT z NIE 80-54: The Cariban pUblies
I. The attached terms of reference, indicating. allocations
of production responsibility, ware agreed on at the meeting
of the IAC representatives an 29 March.
2. By agreement, Service contributions are due on 1 June.
The State contribution is due by I July, but will be made:
earlier if possible.
Distribution 1119w
SECRET
0c13,
PAUL A. BOREL
Deputy Assistant Director
National Estimates
DOC' - I T
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1 o 1 C A S D
CA
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CENT'll'AL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
30 Merch 1954
SUBJECT: TERMS OF REFERENCE: NIE 8044: THE CARIBBEAN REPUBLICS
THE PROBLEi
To estimate the situation and probable developments in the
Caribbean republics with reference to their internal policies, their'
political stability, and their relations with one another, with the
United States, and with the Soviet Bloc?
SCOPE
This estimate is intended to cover, from a regional point of
View, the interns], situation in, and international relations of,
Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama,
Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic, As regards Gautamala,
contributions should take for granted the more extensive analysis
in NIE 84, 19 May 1953, and merely note any significant change
the situation since that date o Some reference to the situatioxj in
Venezuela will be necessary to explain the influence of 'Vemegu an
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Defense
exiles and international alignments in the region, Venezuela should
be brought into the extent necessary for those purpose
but
detailed analysis of the situation in Venezuelac se should be
Considered outside the scope of the estimate* Some reference to
Bexico will also be necessary in connection with exiles, alignments,
and Communists, The estimate should be opem.ended, looking forward
as far as possible,'
QUESTIMS DEARING ON THE PRO
10 STRATEGIC ILTORTANCE
Geographic
t
How does the location of the Caribbean republics
affect their strategic importance?
Defense B, Uilitaty
Mut militarily significant facilities or sites exist
in these republics? To what extent are they available
to the US?
20 What are the strengths and capabilities of the armed
fortes of the Caribbean republics?
SECR,ET
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30 In the eventof general war during the 1950'0, to
what extant could and would the republics provide
forces capable of preserving internal security/
contributing to hemisphere defense? Of serving
overseas?
OIR C. Economic
1, What strategic and other important materials from
the republics are available to the US and the Lest
in significant quantities? From which republics?
Haw essential are they in terms of the total supply
available to the US and the West? Briefly, what
plans or programs for further development are under'wayl
OIR II BASIC CONDITIONS
What are the basic social, economic, and politica' conditions
of the Caribbean republics? (Racial diversity; poverty and
illiteracy of the masses; underdeveloped, raw-materials-
producing and exporting economI, 40Pendence on foreign
capital and enterprise the United Fruit Company);
political immaturity and instability-; personalized authori-
tarian regimes; expanding pressures for economic, social, and
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politioal.reformo) To what extent do these conditions cause?
unrest and to what extent rill they probably continue to do so?
0111 III, CONUDWIST STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE
A, Guatemala
In the present regional contexts rhat modification
of the estimate contained in NIE-84 is necessarys if
any? Does a Communist objective in Guatemala appear
to be that of goading the US into intervention in order
to aggravate US.Latin American relations.
Cuba
Phat are the organizations strengtIvand capabilities
of the Communists in Cuba? ITnat is the extent of their.
influence in labor? Mat. 5_s the attitude and policy
(Defense) ? of Batista toward the Communists? Of the Armed Forces?.
Of the oppositioniste in Cuba and in exile? Uhat are
probable developments?
Co Elserhere
What is the current Coimunist strength in the other
Caribbean republics and rhat is the trend?
SECEST
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International Contacts
Haw do the Communists in the Caribbean republics
maintain international contacts? Is there any indenti-
Liable headquarters (for example Guatemala) for intraw
regional contacts? Do Soviet Bloc diplomatic and
consular missions in the Caridbean area play a signi-
ficant role in maintaining these contacts? To what
extent does Cuba serve the Communists as a base of
operations? Uhat are probable developments?
E. Anti..Communist Measures
To what extent are the republics adopting anti-Communist
measures individually and in cooperation with one another?
'What will be the probable effect of the anti..Communist
declaration adopted at the Caracas conference?
0 Dr
AL POLICIES AFFECTING US INTERESTS
A. Guatemala.
,Uhat is the present policy of the Guatemalan
Gevernment toward the United Fruit Company? Toward
other private US enterprises in Guatemala? How important
is the Fruit Company economically to Guatemala? Is the
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governments present policy calculated to expel the
Fruit Company or rather to preserve it as a "whipping
bee? What are the probable developments?
Bo Elsewhere
l. What are the present policy and probable long.range
intentions of:
(a) Figueres toward the United Fruit Company and other
private US enterprises in Costa Rica?
(0) Trujillo toward the US sugar companies and other
private US enterprises in the Dominican Republic?
20 Are there any internal policies in the other republics
significantly affecting DS Government or private Interests?
Are any of the above likely to cause serious friction
? with the US?
OIR V,. INTRAMIONAT,. MaArIQUSHIPS
A. "Democracies vs Dictatomtleel
What was the early postwar alignment of "democracies" versus
"dictatorships" in the Caribbean and the nature of the conflict
between the two groups? To what extent did the alignment
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represent ideological differences and to that extent con-
siderations of personal- or group self-interest? Haw firm
were the alignments? HOW has this situation been affected
by the subsequent revolutions in Venezuela and Cuba, by
other changes in administrations, and by the intervention
of the OAS? Is there any comparable alignment at present?
If so, that are the bases of common action and haw strong
are the ties in each group? What are probable developments?
Ba The Faileso Activities and Influence
That are the present activities, influenced and capabilities
of exiles from the Dominican Republic, Cuba, Venezuela, and
the other countries? Do they collaborate? What is the
relationship between Figueres and the 'exiles? To that extent
are Guatemala, Costa Rica, Mexico, and the US used by the
exiles as bases of operations? How are their operations
financed? ..,Does the Caribbean,Legion still exist? If so,
there is it based and what are its present strength and
capabilities?
Co Guatemala
What is the state of Guatemalags relations with the
other Caribbean regblics? With MEM With British
Honduras? What are probable developments?
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OIR VI, POLITICAL STABILITY
and Defense
A. Guatemala
Is.anymodification.of the estimate in NIE44.recaseaary?
B.. 'Gabe
Nntat is the present stability of the Batista regime
in Cuba? To that extent does the regime depend upon the
support of the Armed Forced? Upon other elements? What
in the present of the Armed Forces toward Batista? rhat
are the strength: capabilit* and influence of the opposi-',
tionists in alba and in exile? In the event of Batistals
removal from the scene: mhat would be the probable character
of the successor government?
Co Honduras
Will the split in the traditional ruling group
,cause increasing unrest and increase the influence
of leftist: anti.6US elements?
Do ragewhere
Are there any other countries where there is a
present potential threat to stability? rhat are
probable developments?
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.VII. COOPERATION WITH US
OIR A. In International Organizations
10 Guatemala
'Mat has been GtatAcialats, record in the United Nations
on basic issues between the US and the Soviet Bloc?
On economic issues? Its record in the Organization
of American States? What are the implications if its
controversy with the US. at the Tenth Inter.American
Conference at Caracas? What are probable developments?
2. Costa Ricaus Absence from Caracas Conference
INT did Figueres elect not to send a Costa Rican
deleg tion to the Caracas Conference? What ale the
implications Of this?
Other Republics
What has been the record of the other Caribbean
republics in international organizations? With respect
to basic issues? Economic matters? Their record at the
Caracas Conference? that were the reactions of these
republics to Guatemalats controversy with the US at
the Conference?
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Defense
OIR and
Defense
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Bo EE42phere Defense
Mhich republics have military assistance pacts with the
US and/or US military missions? Mhich have military commit.
merits for hnisphere defense and what are these commitments?
C. Panama and the Canal Zone
That are the present policy and long.renge intentions
of Ramon regarding Candi Zone treaty revision? To /that
extent is this issue likely to cause friction with the US?
OIR D. Influences Affecting Cooperation with the US
Aside from Guatemala, do internal Communist, Peronist
or any other influences affect significantly the relations
of the Caribbean republics with the US?
OIR viii. RELATIONS MITH THE SOVIET BLOC
A. Elplomatic and Commercial Relations
Mhich republics maintain diplomatic relations with
the Soviet Bloc? Mhat is the extent of their commercial
relations with the Dloc? 'Mat are probable developments?
B. Vulnera. to Soviet Economic Warfare
Uhat are the current situation and probable developments
in regard to vulnerabilities of the Caribbean republics to
Soviet economic warfare?
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