TERMS OF REFERENCE: NIE-86: PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN BRAZIL

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A002800020019-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 2, 2012
• Sequence Number: 19
• Publication Date: March 9, 1953
• Content Type: MEMO

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SECURITY INFORMATION
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
9 March 1953
SUBJECT: TERMS OF REFERENCE: N1E11: PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS
IN BRAZIL (Draft for Board Consideration)
THE PROBLEM
To estimate the current situation in Brazil and probable
developments through mid.1954.
QUESTIONS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM
I. INTRODUCTION
What is the background of the present situation in Brazil?
A. What was the Brazilian Situation at the be innin of
the present Vargas Regime in 1951?
1. As a result of the previous Vargas regime
(1930.45) and that of Dutra (1946-51):
a. Where was the locus of political power in
1951?
b. What was the economic situation?
c. What was the military situation?
d. What was the situation with respect to
foreign policy?
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B. t forces re invo ved in the election of IVargas
In 19517
1. What political groups supported and opposed his
election?
2. What economic groups supported and opposed his
election?
3. What was the attitude of the military toward the
election?
C. How has Brazil been affected by the present Vargas
regime,
1. Have there been any political changes? Has there
been a shift of political control to a new group
or groups?
2. Has the economy been affected?
3. Have there been basic social changes?
a. To what extent has Vargas fulfilled his
promise to establish a "laboristie state?
4. What changes have there been in the military/
a. Has Vargas enhanced the position of the
military/
5. Have there been any changes in Brazilian foreign
policy?
a, Has there been an increase in Brazilian
nationalise
2
,SEGRET?
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by Have Brazil's relations with the U. S.
been affected?
cy Have Brazil's relations with other Latin
American nations been affected?
II. PRESENT SITUATTON
A. Econo4c
1, What are the present economic difficulties and
bow serious are they/
2. What are the causes of these difficulties? Trans.
portation and distribution crisis? Neglect of
agriculture? Inflation? Failure to attract
foreign capital? Lack of foreign exchange?
Failure to promote immigration and colonization?
3. How significant is the Later Plan for economic
development of the nation?
4. To what extent is Petrobaz having success in
development of Brazil's petroleum resources?
5, What are the international consequences of the
Brazilian economic situation?
a. Balance of Payments difficulties, especially
with USA and Germany?
b. Trend away from trade with USA toward Europe?
0, Increasing dependence for development on
International and Elport.Import Bank loans
obtained via Joint Brazil-US Economic Develop-
ment Commission?
3 elb
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d. Availability to DB of vital strategic materials;
e.g., manganese.
B.
1. In what groups is political power concentrated
at present?
a. What groups support Vargas? Do these groups
represent genuine national interests or the
traditional regional and clan interests?
2. What important political parties exist and what
is their role in the present political situation?
3, What is the present situation of the Communists?
How has being outlawed affected their strength
and influence? To what extent have they enhanced
their position by penetrating government, education
and intellectual groups, labor and the military?
C. L1.12.9z
1. Is organized labor a force? To what extent are
the syndicates capable of independent action?
2. What is the attitude of labor toward Vargas?
3. To what extent has Communist influence penetrated
labor? Bow has this affected labor policies?
D. Milits;rv
1. What is the status of the Military/ Economic
and social origins of officers and enlisted men?
2, What is the Brazilian capacity for production of
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armaments and the status of research and
development for new weapons?
3. What is the attitude of the military toward Vargas?
4, How necessary is support of military for stability
of regime?
5. How serious is the Communist penetration of the
military, e.g? the Clubs Militar?
E. The Church. What is the political role of the Church
in Brazil today? How effective a force is it against
Communism?
F. International Situation
1. What are Brazil's international aspirations?
Insularity? Latin American Leadership? Escape
from "semi colonialism?"
2. Attitude of Vargas regime toward US?
3. Role of Brazil in Latin America? Attitudes toward:
a. Peron, Argentine southern "bloc," and
? Argentine labor "attache" activities?
b. Pan-Latin movement?
its, OAS and Western Hemisphere defense?
4. Attitude toward UN and East-West conflict?
a. Danger of neutralism?
5. Relative importance of Soviet orbit and
Western nations in trade?
i.5
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III. WHAT ARE THE PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN BRAZIL THROUGH MrD.1954
AND WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE US?
A. ponomic
1. What economic developments are probable by mid-1954?
2. Will Lafer's "austerity" measures accomplish their
objective? Will they conflict with the increasing
need of Vargas for political support?
3. To what extent will the new Bank of Economic
Development be successful in continuing the work
of the Joint Brazil-US Commission in negotiating
high priority economic development loans? To what
extent will it be diverted to regional and elan
interests?
4. What are the possibilities for progress in develop.
ing Brazil's petroleum resources? In developing
export of critical strategic materials?
6. To what extent will the legalization of the free
market and the recent Export.Import Bank loan
be successful in alleviating the foreign exchange
shortace and attracting foreign private investments,
expecially American?
6. What will the effects of economic developments
be on Brazil's relations with other Latin American
states? With the US?
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E. yolitical,
1. What political groups will control the nation?
Will they be able to avoid inflation and work
toward a sound economic development?
2. Will the trend toward Brazilian nationalism increase?
What specific forms will it assume?
3. Will the Influence of the Communists increase or
decrease in the period under review/ What issues
are they likely to exploit?
4. In the event of Vargas' death, before expiration
of office, who would most likely succeed him?
Would the transition be orderly? What would be
the roles of the military and the Communists in
such a transition?
5, What is the possibility of Vargas' attempting a
return to dictatorship? What would be his chances
of success? What groups would support and oppose
him?
C. What would be the international effects of the fore..
going Probable developments in Brazil's Present Situation?
1. In regard to the East-West Conflict? Any possi-
bility of reestablishment of diplomatic relations
with a Soviet bloc nation?
2. In regard to UN?
3. Inter-American organizations, especially defense
organizations?
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4. Other Latin American republics? Possibility of
a closer relation with Argentina?
5. On US? Will Brazil remain bulwark in Latin America
of Inter..American system and continuo to be most
important supporter of US?
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