D/I, USAF CONTRIBUTION TO NIE-64 (PART I) SOVIET BLOC CAPABILITIES, THROUGH MID-1953

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A002100020002-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 56
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 15, 2000
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: April 28, 1952
• Content Type: NIE

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D/I, USAF CONTRIBUTION TO NIE 64 (Part I) 28 April 1952
SOVIET BLOC CAPABILITIES, THROUGH MM-1953
I 0 NTE L POJGITT CAS FACTCIBS P CTIIJG SOVIET MOC CAPABILITIES
P'OR POU CAL AHD MILI__ W1 FARE A,, The highly meshed, mutually dependent relationship existing between the
Communist Party, the Secret Police and the military forces in the USSR .s, strictly
defined and controlled by the Politburo, which serves as an interlocking directo.
rate, Any strains which might exist within any of these groups or between them
are not serious enough to affect the stability of the regime, Even the considerable
rivalry which might be precipitated between high ranking Communists in the event of
Stalin's death probably would not materially'.weaken the regimens hold over the
populaces, There is no intelligence which suggests that the Soviet military forces
have either the desire to challenge the supremacy of the Communist hierarchy, or,
the opportunity to implement the desire in case it existed*
D4'. Soviet control over the European Satellites is virtually complete, This
control results from (1) the subservience of Satellite governments and parties to
Moscow, (2) the presence of Soviet military forces and other Soviet personnels within
the Satellites or in immediate proximity; (3) the effectiveness of the Secret Police
system, and '(4.) economic exploitation and subjugation, Soviet control depends in a
large measure upon the Soviet military forces stationed either within the Satellite
countries or along their broders, To a lesser extent this control is exercised
through the Satellite police and military forces, While the complete loyalty of the
Satellite military forces is uncertain,. Soviet supervision,, continued purges of the
tRAVAWdf 1,r iuaoliticaal indoctrimation are extensively employed to
delorminod that
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sngthen Soviet cent olq The Kremlin has not been successful in 4rasing
wwide:,sp re vol ntaty a ppo: t of its policies by the Satellite peoples;
howeverc, it has been able to eliminate effective opposition to those policies,,
P', Popular discontent with Soviet policies will probably continuae and
Derhape become en' more intense as the, Sovietization of the Satellites
increases, Rowe?7ero it is unlikely that such disconaent will reach the
point of jeep dieing or cue kerting Soviet control,
The Soviet proposal for a rearmed. neuter and tnified Ge %any might
possibly Arouse fear among some of the Satellites which have suffered from
Gems wiiitarism particularly C ecboslcvak a exid. Poland, However. the
proposal is m h more likely to strengthen Soviet bloc cspabilitie' fra
political warfare against the Western Powers This would,, be especially true
if the Soviets should bolster their proposals with offers of real concessions,
such as withdrawal of Soviet military forces from East Gn2 ,x 0
G. & Neither the continuation of the cold war and of'\the present
conflicts in Yorea. and Indochina or the making of limited. Communist attach-" y
in the Middle East is likely to change the political situation w .thin. the
Communist Flow If the war should be extended in the rar East the Chinese
Communists would probably be subjected to additional internal political
pre ssuY s, growing out of the increased sacrifices required of the populaces
Moreovrero the Chinese Communists would become far more dependent upon the
USSR than at present for additional qpuanti ties of Military equipment and
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particularly for defense a inst air atthke, This would be true whetaer
or not weapons of mass destruction were used against the Chinese iistsa,
Extension of the '' in the Par Fast would not materially affect the
politic a sit4ation within the USSR, or within China eo long as the OblueDe
Cor ist control mechanisms remained intact, In the case of general e
(with or without ma destruction weapons) some of the E open. Satel11tes
might attempt to tweak with the Soviets, especially if the dissident elements
in then beliw?ed that there was a good chance of succeeding in their rovolt,
Th, success o:t such revolts would be depondent upon the availability of as-
sistance from the Waste= powers,
as a general war in which mass destruction woappons were uned. the
Cos i.st Bloc might well be faced with insurmountable political, prob1t ?
The s3h.ock effect of such weapons would probably be enormous. Extreme fear,
disorder,, and, panic among survivors In target areas would likely be produced
by atomio bombing, and if Communist control mechanisms should be sericmaly
wakened the Kremlin and Peiping might be unable to prevent a decline in
popular mlo from materially affecting the ' potential of their ate=,
s ctive cou:W;ri.eso Furthermore,, with Communist control mechamismg seriously
weakened there would probably be revolts in some of the European Satellites
and possibly (men within the USSR and Communist Chimo
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111, SWTD' ' BLOC CAPABILITIES FOR POLITICAL 74ARFARE
B Political warfare as i ged by the Soviet Bloc is highly dependent
upon military power, The use of this power and/or the threat to use it
enables the Soviet Moo to "lead from strength" in its various maneuvers
of political warfare. Recent history affords n erou ; examples that de-
pendence upon military force is not only a r Art or 00 rfi cc+ st ideology but
is also a frequently employed policy. Soviet military forces within
Po rch Hungary,, Ru an:.ae Bulgaria,, Albania and East Ger ,rry and adjacent..
to Czechoslovakia made it possible fear the Communists to take over the
governments in these countrieso At present the immediate security of the
Communist regimes in the European Satellites depends capon such control
machar ss as a highly competent secret police and strong inte rral
security forces. Howovere their ultimate security root 3 upon the Sovi
military forces insido or near. their borders. The ovor diel ng might of
these i'orces has convinced the Satellite peoples that wader present
conditions overt resistance to the Conic ist regime is ' opeless4 The
po ao r of the soviet military forces also provides the background
against which than Kremlin conducts political warfare against the hon`L oviet
world, Sometimesq as in its policy toward Y1 gosiavia the threat to use
ad force may be only thinly vei1edo :fin other political warfara
m euversa as in the Middle Eastq the Soviet threat of a- ed intervon:bion
is much more subt ' p0ioy -
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Fu The military capabi3.1ties of the USSR and its satellites would be
enhanced in the envent of war by the actions of Communists and fellcw.
travellers in Italy and France, and to a much less extent in West may y0
In the r i: rag countries of Western Europe,, the effects of Soviet
political warfare would be extremely miner.
Although Communist penetration of the Air Forces of Italy and
France has been reduced in the last, few ya are., some members remain
(including a few high-ranking officers and civilian officials) all of
whom would doubtless sabotage effective air operations within the reach
of their influence? The security of plans and of new weapons and
equipment would be almost nil in both Italy and France,, except probably
at the highest national: levels, Mary military personnel, in the lower
ranks would desert in both countries in the event of warn Sabotage and
espionage would be systematically carried out in aircraft factor: es of the
two countries on a large scale,, The airfields of Italy and France would
be subject to both sabotage and espionage from civilian employees,, many of
whom today are of questionable ' loya l ty0
Although the internal security forces in France and Italy would
arrest maV known Co unists on the outbreak of war with the USSR., the
party membership is so large that.only certain key personalities cold be
arrested, and some of these probably would go into hiding and escape
detentions
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IV0 , SCIENTIFIC A TECHNIML I.i.CT RS. ''PUPA G SOV13T 33LOO
CApAI$ILITIES FOR MILLTA ARM
T ?3 sectioaa is deli, ed wc~_~yoe~dn ~ri._ Etc -Si8 wLf lmc
caa bi. .I In Lh mot at n. eng 19 age a1
fie j?&_ and of the ilea-eons and Woxrons s ~e *~ xi c;
reaY.+*~1 b +alavel.oued and ux?a~dao
~m9 c Weauona
a di,al~t~ ~e_
Rielecal Weaa~aoas
Chemi cal. Wea~ozas
DI/ USAF contributions relative to items "l0 2, 3 and 4 have been
submitted separately through the medium of . YOIN-j3 participation in JA M%
JBWICR and JCWICQ
5-o F.sctrccsaa
(a) xr1, Larninp Radar Eauiment: The Soviet Bloc has developed
and produced in quantity three types of native gro3unds,radlaar sets that may be
used for early warning purposesr, These are the R!I 2? tho PEMTIT3 and the
"'Dt O", all operating between 65 and 75 M'c/eo It is bolf'.eved that the Soviets
bane sacrificed high performance for simplicity of designt, ease of ,intenanceD
and economy of component partsa The RT2 and the Pegmatit radars are charac
terised by similar antenna construction,, The RL 2 is a mobile radar and is
probably used for early warning and local control of aircraftQ The PEGMATIT
le apparently a static version of the RID-2 with improved performances, A large
majority of the IIDUMRON radars reported have been located on pr near airfieldso
and it is believod. that this radar is presently used pri oily as a GOl radar
.th a secondary function of early warning,, The range to be expected from these
.% dare is approximately 75 miles on a medium bomber flying at altitudes of
10 ,,000 or highera ~-s
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The recant sigh? i g in the Moscow zre of radar sets
very simils in outward appearance to the US. AN/CM,-6 radar indicates
that the Soviet Bloc is well aware of the limps tionE; of present radars
in use and may be about to provide their operational, units, with a radar
with significantly increased performance characteristicso
A recent report reveals the use of an ScR.= 602A rya o
ten of which were received through lent% 1ease,N The S(2 6C2& is light
weighed? portable diu s,range radar for search and h?:igh findi by
iobas witchingg It was designed for use in assault operations to provida
limited warning until longer range and more acctnhate egnlpmen. eocsl,d be
installed, Against bombers it has a range of 45 miiee above 1O$OOO fee'vc,
Agazins t fighter aircraft performance as about 43 miles, 25X1 D
At
the present time, theae radars are still capable of providing effective
early warning agains-b rcaraft0
It is expected that by mid 19, 3 the Soviets will have
in limited operational use a radar similar to our CP:'-6Q capable of
searching to 50,000 feetD with reduced effectiveness above 35aOOO feed,
It Is probable that the Soviets will employ this ras& both for early
warning and for OCI p oses
(b) 7 n ? ? ~ The radio communications equip nt
`cased by the Soviet Bloc Air Forces operates in the high=froquen y bands
rs
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Two basic tn)es are used in all aircraft, The are the RSI_6
(%5 50 Nb/s) and the RSBbis series (2,5 - 12,0 tic/5)Q The RSIc6
series is noslly^ mounted in fighter aircraft and the RSBbia series
is frequently rmounted in vehicles and used as a mobile communications
station by the. air forces and the ground a ,, The ground equipment
used by the Soviet air force is basically the same as that used. in World
War TZ and consists of the 1transmitter (2,5 - 7Q5 /s)m the
transmitter (2.5 '. 1.2,0 /s)o and the LT0S0 receiver (175 kc/s -.12,0 Ma/c)0
The radio com.nications equipment recently captured
in Korea indicates a constant improvement in manufacturing techniques
and in component desigsa
mist-1955, it is estimated that the Soviet Bloc will
have installed greatly improved communications equipment in the majority
of their operational aircraft0 The short and medic range equipment
will utilize high-frequency and. med1u frequency equipment, The extreme
long-range communications equipment will probably utilize the very low
frequency speed The use of very high-frequency (VEP) cor ioationa
equipment in. large q ntities is not considered likely in 1953
0raund Cain n13 Qd I _cerat R, And ar As regards gounir,
controlled-intercept radar, it is believed that the Soviet Bloc Is using
their present operational early-warning radars-(RUG-2 and 'IDT14BO14) also
as 0OI radars, These radars do not have adequate height-finding chp
teristics or .scope. pressentation for effective control of modern interceptor
5-5'
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aircreft0 However, the recent aighting of what appear to be a radar
similar to the U. S. OP", if produced in quantity" and possessing perform-.
ence characteristics sirrai1s to the U.S, set, will give the Soviet Moo
a good GCI afdaro As mentioned before,) this radar can also be used as an
PV radar,
(d) 1-i le o.? ;s As Bards Fire Control Radar, the
Soviet Union received British and American automatic gt 1ayiug radar and.
directorsp and also acquired German equipment during World War IIA The
U,SU equipment.iras of the most ad-vanced design at that time, and is still
considered good equipment, These British and Ua S, sets are the primary
man-~1aying radars used by the Soviet Moo today, 'ire is evidence. that
the Soviet Bloc is now producing a native version of the U S11S( ,584
radar and may in fact have improved upon the origi=2 design, This a da
has a maximum search range of MONO yards with automatic trackIng from
32,,OOO yards, This set if coupled with a modern director will give the
Soviet Bloc a good all-weather gam laying fire control, s< stem,
(e) Ai b Res There is no positive intelligence of
production by the Soviet Bloc of airborne interception equipments, The
potentialities of this equipment have been well know, for many yearec,
and since British America and German equipment have been in Soviet hands
for more than :five years9 it should be within Soviet abilities to make
Al radar available to the Bloc air forces., In view of the fact that no
such radar has been observed, it in probable that the Soviet Bloc planners
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have rejected such World. War II models as the U ,,S. 5 720 or the German
Loichenstein, and ,have concentrated efforts on the development of Al
radare of significantly greater perforance,o It is estimated that by
mid-1993 some units of the Fighter Aviation of Air Defense interceptor
force till be equipped with an AI radar with a maxi mt a operating ceiling
of approximately i.OOO feet and a range of approximately eight miles
against a medium bombers A set of this type, however,, would require an
operator, It is possible. but not probable that the Soviet Bloc could
produce a pilot operated set by mid-1953 with an operational ceiling of
L.5a000 feet and. a range of 12 miles against a sned .um bomber, In any
event0 it is essential that the Soviet Bloc gain an all-weather fighter.
except capability since without it they are limited to good eather
operations against invading bombereG,
It is estimated that the Soviets have radar equipment
in service as a further step towards increasing strategic bombing capa-
bilities, The Soviets obtained. U,,S. . 'BAPQ 43 blind-bombing and navigation
radar equipment in 2-29? s interned during World War IIa Farther,) intelli-
gence has confirmed that the Soviets have obtained U. S. SCR. 71"1Bf O0
and .A /APB-15; British ASY HK II and E` I I; German Berlin (PUG 22Z} o
and Berlin A ani D search and . bombing radar sets, Photographs of the
Soviet TT-4 show am object beneath the fuselage that appears to be a
copy of the radome used with the UoS,, AN1A. 13 radar set. Recent obser-4
vations of the Soviet Type.-2'7 Jet light bomber reveals a streamlined and
relatively flat protuberance indicating the possible existence of a
.tX
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microwave, blinddbom`bing radar,
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(f) . as ff& a,fio . The Soviet Bloc continue to place
reliance upon medium frequency radio direction finde:rso grouted and
airborne types? as a major aid for a air-natig tiono 'No evidence has been
received pertaining to the design, testo or operatio-a of an unu3asa,1 navi-
gation aid in the Soviet Bic countries, They have made excellent progress
in the dar,relorment of portable ground type direction finders,. The PKV 45
portable direction finder recently captured in Korea covers the requuncy
:plectrum froi L5 to 16G8 gels and tests indicate it is comparable, if
not superior to U?So direction finders of a comparab: a types Continued
development of airborne direction finding equipment to also evident, and
aa. new set known as the R X-45 has been reported.. This new set appears to
be a true ADIP (Automatic Radio Directions Finder),
Reports tend to cop-firm that the Soviets are attempting.
to develop as long aange, radio-navigation system employing transit-time
techniques? Both peke and CW systems have apparently been the subject
of much experimental research, Recent intelligence :Leads to the conclusion
that some of this equipment, may soon be in the test stage,
The only blind landing or instrument approach systems
known to be practiced by the Soviet Bloc pilots eonafl4 to of a standard
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lete=do , procedure utilizing the airborne CIO(M) direction find s
which is activated, by an airport transmitter and a msrker beacon trans
. tter suitably paced on or near, the le dote yX111
Additional ground aids consist of the fcillo= in
(a) Radio telegraph transmitter when within the frequency
coverage of the airborne ?/' seta
(b) jai-directional beacons with 500 watt transmitters
placed near an airfield or on aixvays(c) Radio stations for which frequencies and identification
can be changed every two or three hours,
(d) Directional radio beacons transmitting sixteen letters
on 32 compass segments by means of an array of 16 aerials For these
'beacons only a radio receiver is needed in the' aircraft?
(e) Ground radio D/' stationsx, These send bearings to the
home station which transmits this information to the aircraft on request,.
(f) Although a type of grundcontrolledapproach radar has
been reported in use, there is no information to confirm these reportoo
It is con.sidere that by mid-1953 the Soviet Bloc will con-
tinue to utilise the present radio/radar navigation aids mentioned above;;
The probability of the development of some type of GC( radar s stern for
major airports can be a cted? Also the development . of some type of
electronic long range navigation system can be_ expected but the date of
completioi ?? of the project cannot be estimatek
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$~.e Intelligence concerning Soviet Bloc research
and development in iatfraered is very inadequate and most official eEtimsteu
contain considerable speculation It is known that practically all Infra-
red. techniques developed by the Germans have been atv.ed by they Soviets,
Enough Germ technicians are already 'under Soviet control to duplicate
the Germs devices and to improve on them with the aid of technical
data published. in U.S. scientific journals, Some informations of awn-
confirmed reliability, has been received concerning troop exercises
using infra-red night-viewing devices, installations of infrared radio
fire control equipment on tanks. experimental prototype production of
infra ,--red antiaircraft proximity fuzes and seeker, and of passive heat
detectors, It has been previously established? through reliable irzforr
oration, that the Soviets developed infras- ed automati fir:i equipment
for use in the Russe 'innieh Ware
Scientific publications indicate that considerable research
in the field of pho a conductivity is taking place behind the Iron Cartain,
It has also been reported that the Soviets are engaged. in a program for
the development of infr=red homers for their SAN and AAM. However, it
is not considered that by mid 1953 the Soviet Bloc will have any imfra
red homers available for operational use,
(.b) E1.cactrcnilc CouYt a eE ee: The Soviet Bloc is be.
iieve3d engaged in an active program to provide the SaTiet Air Forces
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with electronic countermea ;ures fa,cilitieso It Is believed that Soviet
knowledge of offensive. countermeasures teae1riques is based on. ivlowmtien
of the countermeasures employed by the Grmans during World War II,, In
addition, both U. S. and 'British war surplus equipment for use in electronic
reconnaissance aircraft have been purchased by the Soviet Union, The
lend.-lease program supplied the Soviets with ampler of U.S. "window"
and specifications for its use,, Technical in-Formation on the TVY-l
jamming transmitter and the R D O wide-,band search receiver was m a d e
e
available to the Sovietso The Soviets have full knowledge of U.S,, and
Allied. World War II radar search receivers, Amerioaxi airborne equipment
interned, by the Soviets during World Wax, II included AN/APP 5 (jammers),
. al 8 5. (forr.G.t receiver) Q /. A 11 (pulse analyzer), . /APQ Z
( o oa Mole jam ar)o Some actual evidence of Soviot posutrar progress
in countermeasures has been detected, The Soviet Blv,c is capable of
large scale Jwmiing. operations at frequencies up to 309 megaeyeleso
Airborne J rs may be available, utilizing the same spectrum sole as
airborne passive BOX. Since specimens of Ger World War II Vim' Jammar2
are considered available to the Soviotsa this capability may well extend
as high In frequency as the V' band Directional equipment utilising
the common S and Y bbndau and possibly some i band, may be available
but large gaps in the spectrum will not be covered Other measures of
passive defense may include directional radio equipment capable. of inter
cepting any type signal In the frequency speetrirn frcm very low to about
ss
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a Pr
300 megacycles VHP* Soviet T aircraft a ,y use false radio identifi-
cation as well as tom" markings in an effort to evade identification
as enemy? Soviet infra red. camouflage paint for use of aircraftf, similar
to British paint covering optical wave lengths from 0.7 to 1.3 microns
has boon fouu& The Soviet Bloc can be expected to possess some knowledge
of German anticja $ng techniques. No anti-jamming devices are known to
be on Soviet egaipmenta Although there is no evidence of large-scale
production of radar magnetrons It is believed that the Soviets are capable
of equipping a sufficient number of Soviet long range aircraft to conduct
largeryscale countermeasures operation6r, While the Soviets must be con-
ceded the capability to employ some of the above RCM gear or Soviet gear
similar to it, the information available is not sufficient to determine
what types or what tactics might be used,,
(0 Prt~xim3 t ~h~s? The availability of radio type proximity
fuzes for ground and antiaircraft ? tillery will depend on the ability of
the Soviet Bloc to overcome the problems of production, It Is doubtful
that efficient fuues will become available to the Soviet Bloc in si fj
cant-quantities until late in the period under consideration, Beverv
because of less exacting engineering requirementsd it is believed that
the Soviet Bloc is capable of producing operational quantities of proximity
fees for such guided missiles as may become available during the period,
(j) Tn ne Rjjn By mid=l95I6 and possibly by mi l953
the Soviet Bloc will have available operational quantities of influence
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seines for aircraft similar to those developed by the Gerwans during
World. War IIQ These will include pressure-magnetic ,coustic combinations
with elaborate period delay and ship counter mechanise,
(k) Aixax #t Z adoe ad In 1953 the Soviet Bloc is capable
of having available in operational quantitiee improved copies of the
Germs patter:-xning9 wire controlled, active and passive acoustic
homing toxpedoeso These torpedoes may have such refinements as aria d.sl
ste ring and possibly combination active and passive acoustic ho se,
cs
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While no guided missiles are known to be operational in the
Soviet Bloc, it is evident that with the aid of German engineers and labor
that the Soviets have built up a sizable guided missile program.
(a) mace to Air iise lesa It is estimated that by mid--
1953 the Soviet Bloc could have operational quantities of an all-,weather
supersonic SAM based on the German "Wasserf all's 4 This missile could have
an operational ceiling of 50.,000 --60.,000 feet and a horizontal range of
approximately 12 nautical miles. It has been reported that the Soviets
are working on an infrared homer for this missile and that existing AAA
fire control di:,;?ector systems will be utilized for the launching and
initial guidance of the missile0 This information cannot be
biatq-
v'eri fied, lit seems to follow the pattern of simplicity favored within
(o)
Air-to-Air Missiles: It is estimated that despite an
almost complete lack of intelligence in this field, the Soviet Bloc could
at present have completed' development on a visually- guided, radio-controlled
supersonic missile. It is probable, however, that there will be no large
scale productia:_ of AAM until development of an adequate homing system has
been completed,, It is reported that the Soviets are working on an infrared
homing device for use in the Air--to-Air field0 It is estimated that any
air=to--air missile produced will also employ proximity fusing.
(0) Surface-to-Surface Missiles: Two types of German
surface-to surface missiles have been studied., produced and tested in tha
`F i ~ J I Paige 1, m .of ages
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Sovi Bloc a These are the V-1 flying bomb and the V-2* The Soviets
appear to have concentrated more on the V-2 missile, and it appears that
they are engaged in a long-range program to provide themselves with
long-range strategic missiles for -inter=continental use.. It is kno;n that
they have already increased the thrust of the V-2 from 25=metric tons to
35=-metric tons and it is reliably reported that they have been engaged
since 1948 in the designing and testing of a 120-metric ton thrust engine
for use in one and taro-stage strategic missiles based on the Germs V-20
It is estimated that these long-range programs will not materialize before
1955 at the earliest. However., by mid-1953 the Soviet Bloc is capable of
ops rational quantities of V-1 and V-2 type missiles with,ranges of 200
nautical miles and 350 nautical miles respectively.
(d) Airto-Surface Missiles% There is evidence of Soviet
Bloc interest In the German air-to-surface missiles the HS-293, a radio
-_
controlled glide bomb, rocket-poawered, and guided visually from an aircraft;
and the Fritz 7; (FX-1400), a radio-controlled bomb, guided visually from an
aircrafta These missiles could be sufficiently improved so that by mid=1953
they could have increased ranges and accuracy and greatly improved guidance
sya n s. It is therefore estirn ted that by mid-195 3 these missiles could
bo available .ixn operational quantities employing radar or television and
radio coaaad and having ranges of approximately 10 nautical miles.
7. Aerial Weapons (Bomber, Fi. ;hits ?, Attack and Other SDecial.
k' 'C3~ta C-ra j 7Isng-3Na- , Axiw e -cent)
Since 194.5 the Soviet Union has made remarkable progress in
rs-
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aircraft development 4 In addition to aircraft and engines in various
tagges of development, they acquired complete factories as well as several
thousand skilled specialists from Germany. Exploitation of the German air-
eraft industry has permitted the Soviet Union to advance its technical develop-
lent tremendously. This advance has been assisted by the availability of
American and British aircraft and enninea~, There will be a constant effort
on the part of the Soviet Bloc to increase speeds, ranges and ceilings by
modifying existing aircraft and by the use of new operational techniques.
(a) Bomber Aircraft: t: The TU 4 was first d? mdnstr-ated in
:.947, approximately three years after the Soviet Union obi ained an lueerican
?329-, Since then, this aircraft has been in series production and has
formed the basis for creation of a long--range striking fo:rceo The appear-
25X1D
ance in July 1951 of a heavy bomber, approximately one-third larger
than the TU-4 and estimated to have range capabilities approaching those of
the U.S. Bab, marked the second known major step forward in Soviet develop=-
mont of modern long-range aircraft. Other logical steps which the Soviets
may be undertaking in the long-range field would be improvement of the TU 4
to give it the capabilities comparable to the U.S. B-50, and development of
a jet medium bomber. There has been some indication of effort in this
direction. In the light bomber field, the most significant developmex has
been the introduction into operational units of twin-jet bombers, now in
series ptoduction6 Thus far, the jet bombers identified in units of the
25X1 D
Air Force of the Soviet Army have been - somewhat comparable to the
British Canberra. Two larger types have also been se?,
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the latter of which may be intended for use by navy air units. The
has also been associated with at least one reconnaissance regi-
ment, and there is a possibility that this aircraft may also be utilized
in a ground attack role o
It can be expected that the present jet light bomber re-
equipment program will continue through 1953 and there is also the
probability that present models will be modified tp increase range, speed,
and operational altitudes
(b) Fighter Aare; Emphasis in the :?fighter field has
been placed on mass production of the MIG-15, upon which a decision to
standardize was apparently made sometime in 1947 or ea:Aly 1948 after
development of various jet fighter designs. Analysis of the MIG=15 power
plant and airframe indicates that this aircraft was fabricated by means
of modern mass production methods and techniques,, The aircraft has
demonstrated itself in combat in Korea to be first-class fighter, com-
parable in performance to the F-860 Two Soviet versions of the Rene
engine have been used in the MIG--15, the earlier one known as the RD-45
and an improved version known as the VKa1? Modifications of the 14IG-15
have been seen, indicating a continuing development effort. A particular
effort is being made to convert fighter units from piston to jet equipment
and at the time more than 50% of the total: fighter strength is
estimated to be jet typeeb Of significance is the fact. that piston engine
fighter production has ceased.
No all-weather equipped fighters are knotai to be in opera-
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tiona.l use. Prototype aircraft with, protuberances which could ho i e
intercept radar have been seen, indicating that development work on all-
weather fighter types is in progress. An examination of all available
information on Soviet prototype's shows that could easily meet
the requirements for an ail-weather interceptor. This aircraft is a twin-
jet swept-wing type. Performance-wjse, it is estimated to have a 5000 ft.
per minute rate of climb and a maximum speed of 525 knots,, It has suffi-
cient space for the installation of Al equipment and the necessary .arr-a.ent
plus an additional crew n mbero It is estimated that if the Soviets should
decide to produce this aircraft that a limited number could be made available
to operational units, in 1953.
In the field of supersonic aircraft, available lnfoation
indicates that the Soviets in the summer of 1948 acquired two rocket--powered
types-- the German ?9 163/263 and the DFS-346(Blohm and Foss)? The latter
was designed as a supersonic research aircraft, Three models were built by
the Siebel plant, in Germany before it was moved to the Soviet Union. A re--
search aircraft similar to the DFS-346 has been observed in the lklvsc?at area
It is therefore considered that the Soviet
Union is engaged in the development of supersonic aircraft o However,, it is
not consider that the Soviet Bloc will have any rocket powered aircraft
in operational units during the period under consideration,
(c) Attack afft In the attack field the Soviet Bloc
is presently utilizing World War 11 types. These are the 11-2 which became
operational in 1941, and the 11-10 a latter version of the first. To date
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pr q arily. as an. attack aircraft}, S ae wal reports have i. d. sated.
u
ser=e have boon no firm indications -o: ? a prototype jet aircraft d(-:siggned
#iiiG-150-s have been engaged in firing rockets at ground ta~.~getsk houle'ver
no 14IG16 h?? e been observed with r?ockets or facilities for :rockets'o
another 1-possibility is the. use of Jet light, bomber in t:.b:.s
role9 hewever., there'are no indications that this will be. done,. It is
t a ; fired that the Soviets could have a jet attack aircraft in use in
raid-1953 capable of 440 knots at sea level and with a combat radius of
2`1` nautical miles a
(d) F ines: Prior to, the end of World War. H the Soviet
#:Ta : oc~ appe?red to have had a good basic theoretical kno~-iledge of het
engines and their capabilities. This knowledge is currently considered
to be comparable with that of the United Stratesa. Follarl.ng the war, the
Soviets acquired German turbojets and. Walther rocket engines in service
operation ,, development and design status0 British tur'b.-3jets, 1.e?, ; ne
and Derwrent, V were imported by the Soviets in 1947. `There are indications
that the Soviet Bloc is developing the high powered G r_tmazn Jet eng
Ju_.Qo-,O'_L2 and ! m ',0oo - 8,000> (pounds static thrust), There are
also indications that develop tent of at least one engine of native design
erwayo Further indications are that the Soviets have expended con-
siderable effort in the deveiopmen:, of the German Jumo 022 turboprop
engine and it is estimated that this engine could be available for
)p: -_r t onai employment with 5(W shaft horsepower. It is estimated that
~RP
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by id-1953 the, Soviet Bloc could have available for operational use
turbojet engines of lO OOO to i1,500 pounds thrust and turboprop engines
of 5,000-to 7,000 shaft horsepower.
(a) Aircraft Weapons: It is estimated t .hat Soviet Bloc
aircraft will utilize conventional type automatic guns a3 their principal
armament installation, These guns may be of calibers up to 3?, with a
cyclic rate of 550 rounds per minute and a muzzle velocity of 2,300 feet
per second. Unguided aircraft rockets with and without probity fuzes,
may be available to supplement guns for air-to-air and air=to-ground use.
It is probabl_o that automatic rocket launchers installed internally will
be used in addition to presently developed launchers. T1ha use of optical
computing gun sights, similar to the U. S. K-14., the Bri?'ish Mark II and
comparable Geraaxa sights, will be in wide used `here is no intelligence
pertaining to Soviet development of radar gun sights; however, it is
known that they are interested in the application of inf ,:-aredo It is
estimated that the Soviets will have sufficient blind boinbing and navi-
gational radars for pathfinder missions or critical long range bombing
missions.
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Antiaircraft Art r-v LArtillery o :e s~
The Soviets now have a capability of delivering continuously
pointed antiaircraft artillery fire at altitudes up to 40,000 feet by
tactical employment of a new antiaircraft gun of apprc nately 85 Mm to
10 in caliber which became operational during 1951. Fire control
directors for use with this new weapon have not been identified but will
most likely fully exploit the capabilities of the gun. The SCH-584 gun-
laying radar is reported being produced and will be used primarily in the
fire control system for the acquisition of radar data.
It is estimated that by mid-1953 the Soviets will have
sufficient-numbers of light, medium and heaver antiaircraft guns of advanced
design to provide an off =c . defense for priority target areas only. It
'a1,t,~?
is estimated that erf~/all~weather fire will be encountered up to
40,000 feet,, The Soviet Bloc will probably have opera There is every indication that the combat
effectiveness of Soviet military aviation is low by U. S. standards. The
Soviets continue to experience difficulty in replacement of worn and
damaged piston aircraft and aircraft parts. Under conditions of sustained
combat, it is believed that not more than 50 percent of assigned aircraft
could be kept operational. The general level of training of Soviet ground
and air personnel is considered to be inferior to that of United States and
United Kingdom personnel, although the Soviets are conducting an intensive
training program.
(2) Air Force of the Soviet Az Personnel of the Air Force
of the Soviet Army are, in general, well versed in operations related to
the support of ground forces. The Air Force of the Soviet Army has been
strengthened since World War II by reequipment with jet fighters and jet
light bombers, but the majority of its combat aircraft are still World War
II types. The equipment of its tactical 'air control system is definitely
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inferior to that used by the United States, and there are indications that
the overall development of the system permits less flexibility than the
United States system. The retention of large numbers of the IL-10 piston
engine attack aircraft as the primary close support weapon results in a
heavy requirement for fighter escort and reduces the counter-air capability
of the fighter force. The tactical bomber force is being improved by re-
equipment with an excellent twin-jet light bomber, and it may be expected
that this force will be capable of considerably better performance than in
World War II, when its operations were relatively ineffective. In spite of
the weaknesses noted above, the Air Force of the Soviet Army is capable of
providing effective support to the Soviet ground forces, because the rela-
tively fixed and stereotyped pattern of Soviet ground force operation does
not require great flexibility.
(3) Fighter Aviation of Air Defense-- While the Soviet Union
has an effective day interceptor aircraft in the MIG-.l5, the effectiveness
of this aircraft cannot be fully exploited because of the lack of adequate
amounts of effective ground control radar equipment. There is no evidence
that an all-weather interceptor, equipped with adequate airborne intercep-
tion radar, is available in-Soviet units; it is therefore believed that the
Soviet night and all-weather interception capability is extremely limited.
On the whole, it is estimated that Soviet day interception capabilities
would be good in the areas of heavily defended targets because of the con-
centration of the best radars in those areas, and that night and all-weather
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capabilities would be extremely, limited in any area,
(4) L O S -- World War II operations of Soviet
long-range bomber units were handicapped by poor navigation and lack of
skill in instrument and all-weather flying9 Units of Long Range Aviation
are known to be undergoing intensive training to meet the Soviet goal of a
capability to undertake ~4,rategic bombing missions by day or night in any
weather. This will become possible when radar blind bombing and navigational
devices are in general use; at present, it is believed that some aircraft are
equipped with these devices. In spite of intensive Soviet efforts, it is
believed that the combat effectiveness of Soviet Long Range Aviation remains
well below that of the United States and United Kingdom strategic air arms;
the average Soviet medium bomber crew is considered to be less skilled than
the average United States medium bomber crew of World War II, and Soviet
staff planners lack the extensive operational experience obtained by the
United States and United Kingdom.
(5) Naval Aviation-- The experience of Naval Aviation units
during World War II was largely confined to support of the coastal flanks
of the Soviet Army and to anti-shipping operations against German convoys
in the Black Sea and the Baltic. Toward the end of the war it had achieved
a considerable degree of competence in operations of both kinds, but it ob-
tained no experienca against heavily defended naval task forces. The Soviet
Union obtained some excellent German anti-shipping weapons, such as air-to-
surface missiles and pattern--running and homing torpedoes, but it is not
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known whether the extensive development production and training programs
necessary to develop a capability with these weapons has been undertaken.
Naval Aviation units are considered capable of carrying out patrol, anti-
shipping, and mining operations to a radius of 300-700 miles, and possibly
capable of employing developments of more advanced German and Soviet anti-
shipping weapons. There is reliablekevidence of the assignment of jet
aircraft to naval units, and it must be expected that the effectiveness
of Naval Aviation will be considerably improved by mid-1953. Support of
Soviet ground forces would be adequate at the present time,
fo Disposition-
The Soviet Air Forces are estimated to be disposed as outlined
in the following table, and it is estimated that this general disposition
will remain in effect-- barring unforeseen military operations-- through
raid-1953e
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SECE
oR-:'
ESTIMATED GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF SOVIET AIR STI
GTH
Br AIRCRAFT TYPE
1 6pill 0232
(A
r0Ximats FiauraS. Based on
O&E Strength)
AIRCRAFT TYPE
EASTERN
EUROPE
WESTERN
USSR 2
SOUTH
WESTERN
US S$
SOUTHEIN
USSR
FAR
EASTERN
U,
TOTALS
Fi ht?r
Jet
1,120
1,650
890
670
1
270
600
5
Piston
200
1,300
750
650
,
1,300
,
4,200
Attack
500
19050
220
260
630
2,660
Yht Bomber
Jet
210
420
40
m
-
670
Piston
340
910
650
380
1,600
39 88O
Medium Bomber
-
400
300
-
100
Soo
Transport
150
680
220
90
360
1,500
Reconnaissance
Vr0
360
120
130
37.0
1
090
TOTALS
2,9690
6,770
3,190
2,180
_
5,570
,
20,400
SIC'
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~... 1J L C R F T
20 COMMUNIST CHINA:
The Communist Air Force in the China,-Manchuria area is estimated
to have aT%'ailable a total of approximately 1800 combat aircraftg including
1000 Jet fighters, 250 piston fighters, 160 ground attack aircraft, 240
piston light bombers, and 150 twin-engine transports. The main concentra-
tion is in Manchuria, where approximately 1100 aircraft (including 606 jet
fighters) are based. The balance of approximately 700 aircraft, including
400 jet fighters, is d@ployed in the Peiping, Shantung Peninsula, Shanghai-
Wanking, and south China areas. While definite information is lacking,
these units presumably are organized along Soviet lines and would have
relatively good mobility. Morale is believed to be fairly high as a result
of preferential treatment and the enthusiasm generated by the growing size,
activity and prestige of the air forces. As a result of intensive training
and combat experience, the Chinese Communist Air Force is considered to
have reached a fair level of efficiency and combat effectiveness. On the
whole, the Chinese Communist Air Force would be relatively formidable in
its present operating areas, but it is almost wholly dependent on the
Soviet Union for logistic support. Should this support be withdrawn or
interdicted, the combat- efficiency of the Chinese Communist Air Force
would decline rapidly.
3o EUROPEAN SATELLITES:
The air forces of the European satellite nations- aggregate some
1450 aircraft in operational units; this :umber includes approximately 100
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R P'
Jet fighters, 450 piston fighters, 440 ground attack, 1#30 light bombers,
150 reconnaissance, and 120 transports. The satellite forces are almost
completely dependent on the Soviet Union for logistic support, and
virtually all aircraft are Soviet types. Units are modelled after those
of the Soviet tactical air forces, and Soviet influence is exerted
through the integration of Soviet officers into satellite organizations,
often down to the regimental level. Mobility would be comparable to that
of the Soviet Aiir liorces if the satellites operated under Soviet control
and direction. Morale ranges from relatively good in the Bulgarian Air
Force to very low in the Czechoslovakian Air Forces. Training ranges
from relatively good to ver7 poor, On the whole, combat effectiveness
is low by United States-United Kingdom standards, but acting in concert
and with Soviet logistic support and direction, the satellite air forces
would have a significant combat value against small individual nations
such as Greece, Turkey, or Yugoslavia.
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t--: t+ air ta" "'lam
2Q LL d-. l f present Aoldil A Mid itarv ~auiv3aexst =.
While there is little direct information available concerning the size and
quality of Soviet stockpiles of military aviation equipment (it is believed
that all bloc stockpiles are under Soviet control'o the estimated production
rate of Soviet aircraft has greatly exceeded the attrition rate since World
War II, In addition a large stockpile of relatively new aircraft was avail-
able at the end of the warn Further, it is known that Soviet policy requires
that large reserves of aircraft be maintained in storage, Prom consideration
of these factors,, and the estimated size and composition of Communist air
forcesg it has been calculated that the Soviet stockpile of military air--
craft may be approximately equal to the active inventory but not identical
as to tYpe0 Few If any medium bombers or light jet bombers are consideref
to be in stored ;reserved With respect to stockpiles of aviation fuels and
lubricants, it is believed that the Soviet doctrine requires that sufficient
P( be ava Table to support 120 days of combat operations Of this amountp
it is probable that 30 days supply is held below Air Army level, 30 days
in pipe linen, and 60 days in storages While it is known that stockpiles
exist in each of the areas in which Soviet aviation forces operateD the
level at which these stockpiles are actually being maintained is not know
It is considered that adequate quantities of bombs, ammunition? and rockets
are available foz' one year of r0
3Q It La~ution Retee - On the basis of the estimated
composition of the Soviet air forces for the period m U.1952 to mad .1953
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and the esti>meted attrition rates for that period, the peacetime aircraft
lose would be roughly as follows :
Fighters Jet 825
Piston 8W
Ground Attack Piston 550
Light Bombers Jet 100
Piston 700
Medium Bombers
Transports 100
Reconnaissance Jet 20
Piston 180
This does not include any combat lose in Korea or any satellite attrition,
The requirement for peacetime usage rates of aviation fuels is estimated at
arproxiT ately 1D?50000 metric tons of aviation gasoline and, 615,)000 metric
tone *of jet fuelas for a total of approximately 196650000 metric tons of
aviation fuels, Expenditure of aircraft boobs, ammunition, and rockets are
estimated to be well below. the level required for the Soviet Union to ,)air
ta$n and increase stockpiles of these products? according to Its desires0
Z Coordination and Direction of Bloc Air Forte p
(aas) General - The Objective of Soviet policy - a Communist
world state dominated bya Kremlin organization which it'-self rests on a
secure power base - is the central theme which ginds together Soviet
military, economic, political, foreign and domestic policies into an integrated
plan for the weakening and ultimate destruction of the non-Communist world,,
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Accordinglyv all the means by which the Soviet Union can bring its pour
to bear against non-Communist states are coordinated at the highest levels
the Politburo and the Council of People?s Minister?0 The Politburo members
ship generates the general policies and concepts governing the pioyment
of Soviet military forces in pursuit of the Soviet goal; the general policies
thus established are translated into w r,plans at the Ministry of War level
and these pl?rns.presumably mks provisions for the coordinated use of
military forcee,0 There is considerable evidence that inWorld War II
Stalin and, the Politburo took an active part in developing both the general
policies governing the employment of Soviet forces and the actual war plans
for Ong these policies into effectr, and it is reasonable to presume
that the Politburo has retained control over these matterso Within the
general policies and plans established by the Council of People?s tdinistere
and the War and Naval Ministries, area military commands:es are raspondible
for coordinating the forces wader their command to fulfill the command ob-t
jective0 Assuming continuation of the World, War II syst1 m except where
there may be some evidence to the contra2rp the 'v'arious components of Soviet
military aviation would be affectod in the following ways.-
l. Air Force of the Soviet Army - It to believed that
the general coordination of tactical forces is accomplished by the War
Ministry. which develops overall operational plans for Soviet forces and
details specific "Front" (Army Group) commanders to execute their portions
of the overall plan. The Front commander and, the Air Army commander, who
6S
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is directly subordinate to the Front Coaam xderp develop in conference with
their staffs a general concept for the employment of tactical aviation in
Conjunction with the contemplated ground force operation, Such a plan
provides for coordinated use of the air forces in assisting the ground
forces, and sometimes make specific allocations of air units to support
specific ground force units, such as the armored comrxi spearheading a
breakthrough. A directive is then issued by the Front ^ommander to the
Air Array commnder, setting forth the tasks to be performed by the Air
a
The Air Army staff develops an operationsl plan for accomplishing these
tanks and,, after approval by the Front Corander, this :L incorporated in
the full operational plan and sent to the War Ministry :?or approval. Com r,nd
and control of the air forces in the combat operation is; held by the Air Army
commander, and coordination with ground force operations as they develop is
accomplished through the tactical air control system,
(b) Naval Aviation - Naval Aviation is directly subordinate
to the Ministry of the Na,oy, When air forces of INavaai Aviation operate in
support of Soviet Array operations, the relationship of the aviation commander
to the "Front commander is apparently the rime a? that 01' the Air Army eon
mandere, Milo no Specific iuformatl,,an is available? it is believed that pl.anE
for air support of iriavai operations are developed and pact into operation in
much the same, manner as those for support of ground force operations,
(c) ` Aviation of Air Defense - Fighter Aviation of Air Defense
rt
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RET
is subordinated to an air defense organization in the War Ministry which
commands or coordinates all.the elements of air defenses including active
and passive measures, The Air Defense Directorate in the Ministry of War
is believed responsible for coordination of overall Soviet air defense mean
ouresg coordination of air defense fighters in the field with other elements
of air defense is accomplished through the air defense radar and communicate
tions net established in each air defense region0 The defense of key iz.
duetrial, political, and economic areas is organised under PV'O Points
(control centers); all air defense activity within the radius of a Point is
operationally controlled and coordinated by a Point commander,
(d) Long Range Aviation - Long Range Aviation is directly
subordinated to the War Ministry, and it is believed that the War Ministry
coordinates plans of the Long Range Aviation with those of other elements
of Soviet military aviation and with overall military plans..
(e) Aviation of Airborne Troops The organisational status
of this component of Soviet military aviation is not firmly establishedo
Some evidence indicates that the Commander in Chief of Airborne Troops Is
a Deputy of the Commander in Chief of the Air Force of the Soviet ArmY0
,
Other evidence indicates that the Commander in Chief of Airborne Troops is
subordinate to the Minister of Was and actually may have the status of a
Deputy War Minister0 At any rate9 it is believed that this official coordi,
hates and arranges for the aviation requirements of airborne troops,, The
overall plane for the employment of airborne troops in connection, with
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ground force operations may be developed by this directorate,, and it is
considered probable that final. plan are coordinated with overall Soviet
military plus by the War Ministry.
(f) Civil Air Feet -;-4 The Civil Air plee+i, is orgard2ationally
subordinated to the War Ministry,, and it is assured that the War Ministry
is responsible for coordinating its operations with military operationsc,
Sa Bl+ac Strat%ELO and T ca , Dora. -ind
(a) Strategic Doctrine - The general strategic doctrine of
the Soviet bloc is reflected in coordination at the highest level -. the
Politburo to bring to bear all sources of power of the Soviet bloc in
order to weaken and ultimately destroy the non.-Communist states, With
respect to strategic air power,,,its doctrine appears, ox the basis of its
equipment and research efforts,, to be bo: owed from that of the United States
and Great Britain; its aim is to bring its power to bean' directly against
the internal sources of enemy strength through the mass destruction weapon
and the long range aircraft operating in any condition of weather and visi.~
bility,, ind`ipendently- or in coordination with other forces,
(b) Tactical Doctrine - The tactical doctrine of overwhelming
Soviet military aviation in World War II was reflected in the employment of
overwhelming numbers of air craft operating in support of a x'elatively stereo
typed patterns of ground force operations, with the whole= effort depending
for its success largely on the concentration of forces r.terically superior
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to those of the enemy,, With some adjustment for the more modern equipment
and methods which the Soviets have put into operationo this appears to be
substantially the present doctrine of Soviet tactical av.6ation0 Nowevere
there appears to be a growing consciousness of the usefulness of operations
at great depth behind enemy linesL, and the longer range jet light bombard
ment aircraft now entering Soviet tactical units indicate a growing capaaa
bility and intent to undertake operations which may be independent of
immediate ground force operations or affect the outcome of the ground battle
only after the lapse of a considerable period of time,, The tactical doctrine
of righter Aviation of Air Defense is essentially one of mass and concentration
in the areas of critical targets? with relatively large 'au ua
mportextAalmost
completely undefended, There is little information on the taactice.I doctrine
of Naval Aviation with respect to attack on naval forces? although the best
operations against the Germans,?* during the latter 'stag g of World War IT
were characteriased by excellent coordinated attacks by ff.ghters and attack
aircraft executing a well-developed attack plate,
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B. ESTIMATED BLOC MILITARY CAPABILITIES
to Cavity to Initiate and Maintain Various Military Campaigns --
It is estimated that the Soviet Bloc Air Forces are capable
of furnishing air support to large scale ground force operations on the
Eurasian. continent, in addition to conducting an active air defense of
the Soviet Union and a strategic air offensive against the United States,
the United Kingdom, Allied lines of communication, and the deployed
strength or deployment capability of Allied air power. The Soviet Air
Forces are capable of executing these campaigns with or without the use
of mass destruction weapons, although capabilities against targets at
great distances from the Soviet Unions long range bomber bases would be
greatly reduced unless mass destruction weapons were utilized; in parti-
cular, the strategic threat against the United States would be reduced
to almost negligible proportions in terms of decisively influencing its
war effort and that against the United Kingdom would be greatly reduced.
goo
2, Offensive Ca abilities
ao Offensive Capabilities A nst the United States?
It is estimated that the Soviets have a TO&E strength of
F9C TU-4 medium bomber aircraft at the present time. The TU-4 with a
normal combat range of 3,320 nautical miles and a combat radius of 1,800
nautical miles -w th a 10,000 pound payload is the only known operational
Soviet bomber capable of delivering the atomic bomb in the United States.
It could be modified to have a combat radius of 2,150 nautical miles and
a combat range of 3,960 nautical miles when carrying a 10,000 pound bomb
load. There is no confirmed intelligence to indicate the Soviets have so
modified any TU-48s. Similarly, the Soviet long range capability could
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be increased by aerial refueling. Soviet Long Range Aviation is considered
capable of attempting the following operations against the United States:
(1) One way atomic attacks from bases in the Murmansk
area, the Soviet zone of Germany, the Baltic area and Northeast Siberia
against any important target in the United States:
(2) Two way attacks employing atomic weapons, or other
mass destruction weapons, or conventional bombs from bases in Northeast
Siberia against that segment of North America bounded by a general line
passing through Seattle, Calgary, and Churchill.'
(3) Possible two-way attacks with one aerial refueling
employing atomic or other mass destructions weapons from bases in North-
east Siberia against that segment of North America bounded by a general
line passing through Los Angeles., Denver, and Minneapolis. Two aerial re-
fuelings would extend this radius to include an,are running from Galveston
to Cape May. However, there is no evidence that the Soviets have in fact
developed aerial refueling techniques,,
ba Offensive Capabilities Against the United Kingdom?
In addition to the substantial numbers of medium bombers
which could operate from bases within the Soviet Union and Soviet occupied
Europe against the United Kingdom., significant numbers of light bombers
could reach the United Kingdom on D=Day with only minor redeployment taking
place prior to the attack. The weight of air attack would increase sub--
stantially as the Soviet ground forces moved across western Europe and
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acquired bases nearer the United Kingdom. Some jet light bombers in
Europe are believed probably capable of carrying spme fo;;i of atomic
bomb.
C" Inventory crf Atozuic Weapons at~d Probab:l? Bloc Target
Priorities-
The inventory of Bloc atomic weapons is3 estimated as
follows
Mid-1952 - 50
Mid-19 53 - 100
Data on Soviet production of fissionable material is such that the size
of the atomic weapon stockpile may be as low as half or as much as twice
e estimates indicated above. No direct information is available as to
probable bloc target priorities. On the basis of what appear to outside
observers to be a logical distribution of effort in term?s of estimated
Soviet war aims9 it is considered that a major portion o_' the stockpile
would, be employed against targets in North America, and unlikely that
any significant number would be allocated to targets elsewhere than in
the United Kingdom and North America.
d. ()peraional Readin~~s of Bloc Lon}?[7(yjj~4e Air_?
While specific information is lacking on the operational
readiness of Soviet long range regiments,the Soviets have had a flyable
B-29 type aircraft since 1944 and have had numbers in operational training
units since 1948. Since this period is much longer than that which would
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be required in the United States or United Kingdom to develop an operational
capability with these aircraft, it is estimated that operational readiness
is adequate to warrant an attempt to deliver, in the United States and
United Kingdom, the full stockpile of atomic weapons that is or will become
available.
3. Defensive Capabilities--In the post war period, and particularly
during the past year, the Soviet Union has made notable progress in improving
its air defense system. During the past year the PVO Point system has been
transformed into a system of integrated defense areas centrally controlled
from Moscow. The reequipment of interceptor units with MIG15 aircraft has
continued. The early warning system of the satellites has been incorporated
into an overall Soviet system and the reporting and communications system
has been expanded. A new type radar similar to the US AN/CPS 6 may have been
developed and placed in operation. A new 85 or 100 millimeter antiaircraft
gun has appeared in positions in Moscow and Liningrad and there has been a
related increase in quantity of SCR 584 type gun-laying radar equipment..
The radar network has been enlarged (over a period of years) so that the
Soviets now have peripheral coverage in the east, west, and southwest as
well as coverage in depth in European Russia. Soviet interception capa-
bility has been further increased outside the Soviet Union through continued
reequiping of Soviet fighter units with jet- interceptor aircraft. In spite
of these improvements, however, there remain major weaknesses in the Soviet
air defense system? The early warning system utilizes radars of generally
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obsolete and obsolescent types which are susceptible to jaxg. The
quantity and quality of ground control interception radar is considered
inadequate to cope with saturation tactics, even in the areas of major
targets. Gun-laying radar is not available in sufficient quantity and the
gun defense itself does not provide adequate defense against high speed,
high altitude aircraft. The reporting system utilizes radio communications
which possibly can be jammed. There is no indication of the operational
use of airborne interception radar, so interception capabilities would be
limited to conditions of daylight and good visibility. In sum, while the
Soviet Union has expended considerable effort in the period since World
liar II to improve its defenses, and in particular has made notable progress
during the past twelve months, the system is not yet adequate to assure the
Soviet Union any substantial degree of protection from air attack by a
capable enemy.
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,city to Maintain Campaigns While Bconpff and Supply Linea
Under Various Kinds of Attack
a. Anything more than a highly generalized comment on this
subject would require detailed war gaming, involving consideration at length
not only of Soviet vulnerabilities, but also of the strength, capabilities, and
expected operational utilization of all the forces opposing the Soviet Union.
b. It can. be stated in general that significant segments of the
Soviet economy are considered highly vulnerable to atomic attack, An atomic
offensive against selected key target systems throughout the 3oviet Union could
produce a crippling reduction in the output and distribution of materiel and
supplies needed to sustain a war efforts The immediate effect on specific cam-
paigns of such an attack upon the Soviet economy would depend in considerable
part on the degree to which stockpiles had been created and tine extent to which
Soviet leaders were required to alter their campaign plans by destruction and
dislocation of the Soviet economy. The ultimate effect would depend not only
upon the effectiveness of the atomic offensive in terms of physical destruction,
but also upon such incalculables as the effect of an atomic offensive upon
Soviet Bloc cohesion, control systems, and will to fights
Co With regard to supply lines, the Soviet Union enjoys the
advantage of internal lines of communication, but there are aI o significant
vulnerabilities in the internal, transport system, such as the general sparseness
of t:raneportation facilities between various important center:,, and heavy
dependence on certain lines like the Trans-Siberian rail link between European
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TOP
Russia and the Soviet Far 'gast. In view of these vulnerabilities, the
ability of the Soviet. transport system to sustain a flow of supplies from
the Soviet rear to various campaign areas could be adversely affected.. both
as the result of direct attacks and by the indirect results of an atomic
offensive which would disrupt transport operations and schedules.
d. Advanced Soviet supply lines to forces in the field axe
'considered to be vulnerable to air attack at various points., such as rail
bridges., highway bridges, rail yards, rail transfer sites and supply depots.
eo Soviet ability to sustain air operations would be af-
fected more or less directly not only by attacks upon airfields, POL dumps$
communications facilities and other such targets, but also by attacks on
selected war-supporting segments of the Soviet economy,
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4. Capacity of Bloc Forces to Hold and Utilize Territory Added
to Bloc--
In view of the presence of Communist parties of varying sizes
and potentials in most of the nations bordering the Soviet Bloc, it is con-
sidered that the Bloc has a nucleus for a national government in each nation
which could maintain itself in power, with the assistance of Bloc military
occupation forces, in the face of any domestic opposition which might
develop. However, if popular unrest in any occupied country resulted in
the creation of organized opposition forces which could be assisted from the
outside, serious difficulties might be created for the government and the
occupying forces. The ability to utilize the economy of the occupied terri-
tory in support of the Soviet war effort would be dependent on many factors,
of which one of the most important would be the state of the economy and the
condition of production facilities when occupation occur3. If extensive
demolitions were accomplished in occupied areas prior to occupation, and
serious destruction accomplished in the Soviet Union through strategic attack.,
it is doubtful that the Soviet Bloc would be capable of using such facilities
as steel mills and other heavy industrial organizations for a considerable
period of time. In any case, demolitions would very seriously hamper Soviet
efforts to organize the economies of occupied countries. Finally, Soviet
efforts would be greatly hampered if key members of the Communist Party of
the occupied country had been removed prior to occupation. However., if the
Soviet Bloc took over the nation with the economy, producing facilities and
national Communist Party reasonably intact, it is considered that the economy
of the occupied nation could be utilized effectively by the Soviet Bloc after
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a national government had been established and an economic plan placed in
operation. In the case of facilities capable of manufacturing end products
with specific military applications, such as ordnance and. almunition, it is
considered that the Soviet occupying forces could place the relatively few
such facilities in each country into operation within a few weeks after
occupation, with or without the cooperation of a friendly national govern-
mento Supply of the necessary raw materials for these producing facilities
could probably be assured by absolute priorities, and difficulties with the
local labor force forestalled through the use of suitable repressive measures.
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75341
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