POST-MORTEM:NIE-47, 'COMMUNIST CAPABILITIES AND INTENTIONS IN ASIA THROUGH MID-1953', PUBLISHED 31 OCTOBER 1952; NIE-55/1, 'COMMUNIST CAPABILITIES AND PROBABLE COURSES OF ACTION IN KOREA', PUBLISHED 30 JULY 1952; AND NIE-58. 'RELATIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00971A000500020006-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 26, 2006
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: December 4, 1952
• Content Type: MF

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SECRET
ITY INF'tlAT ION
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OTT ICE CF NATIONAL ESTID
4 December 1952
b 9r` 4oaANDtfl4 FOR s t?Zr. Allan na (OIR)
Colonel Gerald F. Lillard, USA (G-2)
Captain Allan L. Reed, USN (ONI)
Colonel Jack E. Thomas, USAF (AFOIN..2A)
Captain John A. Holbrook, USTI (JIG)
SUBJECT : Po it4brtem: NIE.-47, "Conmiunist Capabilities
and Intentions in Asia Through Mid-1953",
published 31 October 1952; NIE-55,/1, "Ccanist
Capabilities and Probable Courses of Action
in Korea", published 30 July 1952; and NIE-58,
"Relations Between the Chinese Ccrcunist Regime
and the USSR: Their Present Character and
Probable Future Courses", published 10 September
1952
REF ENCE Procedure for Reducing Intelligence Deficiencies
in dated 3 June 1952
1. The attached List of Intelligence Deficiencies revealed
in the preraration of ME-47, NM-55/1, and 2 -558, are submitted
for your consideration in accordance with referenced procedure.
2. Please have your representative rteot with us at 10:00
Tuesday, December 16, in Room 146 South Building.
D Aast.Director//Adm.
Distribution "gift
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
4 December 1952
LIST OF INTELLIGENCE DE PICIE, NGIES REWAM IN T Ill', R~ TION
OF NIEIS 47, 5 AND
In the prenaration of NIE's 47, 55/1, and 58, several
intelligence deficiencies were revealed. These deficiencies
are of varying importance. For the most part, they are related
to three general questions: what are the political and economic
effects of the Korean war on Comamxnist Chine, how do the 17S;R
and Comrxunist China jointly administer and maintain the war
effort in Forea, and what is the precise nature of Sino-Soviet
political relations?
The following outline specifics the points on which NE, Is
47, 55/1, and 5g, wore weakened by the lack of adequate intel-
ligence, ?fir of these items have previously been cited in
the post mortem on SE-2?, some are weaknesses which the IAC
agencies are currently in the process of correcting, and certain
of the items may be of an "unknowable" nature. We feel, never-
theless,, that examination of these weaknesses may reveal new
procedures for improving existing intelligence on these questions.
The items are not listed In any order of proposed priority, and
they are not to be regarded as intelligence requirements for
collection purposes.
A. The Fo7 i cal and E4,
is Effect ? of the K can tJr o
Communi tChina
1. 'That has been the effect of the Korean war in Communist on:
a. Popular support of the regime?
b. Popular attitudes toward the USSR? US? Japan?
Chinese Nationalists?
a. National consciousness and chauvinism?
d. Class structure?
e. Party structure and discipline"
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2. :That has been the effect to date of the Korean war
in Corn mmiat China on:
a. The viability of the economy?
b. The rehabilitation and expansion of productive
capacity?
a. The economic dependence on the USSR? On what
termsrm has Coranunist China been receiving, economic
aid from the USSR?
B. The Sins-Soviet 1 a Effort in Korea
5.
What is the nature of joint Slno-Soviet military direc-
tion of the Korean war?
What is the relation of the :'oviet Air Force to the
Voroan war and the CCAF? ''hat combat experience have
CCAF pilots actually had? tJhat degree of combat pro-
ficiency have CCAF pilots demonstrated in Korea?
What is the Sino-Soviet capability to support:
(a) intensified hostilities,, and (b) a general war
in the Far East?
a. That is the productive capacity of the Soviet
Far East? Of Commmmist China?
b. ghat are the capabilities of the soviet supply
channels into Asia? The capability of the Trans-
Siberian RR and of the Unnohurian RR's? Other
supply channels?
c. What effect would a prolonged and intensified
war effort in Korea have upon Communist China's
economy?
d. That capability does Communist China have to support
a prolonged and intensive air offensive in Korea?
How large, and where, are Communist China's aviation
POL stockpiles?
e. tthere are Soviet Far Fast stockpiles located,, and
what is their level?
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f. What is the amphibious capability of the Soviet
F`w East forces, particularly with respect to
large unit and combined operations training?
6. How important is Cormmist China's eoonon in the total
Coammmist economic support of the Yorean war?
7. On what terms has Cormnmist China been receiving mi l-
tary aid from the USSR?
G. The ldng of Sin Soviet Fblitic l Re1ationia
8. What are Comumist intentions frith respect to an armistice
in Korea? Is there any divergence of view, Chinese and
Soviet, on this question?
9. ".That influence does the USSR exert in the key centers
of the Chinese Coamnuni,st rogime?
a. In the regime's security agencies? Army? Party?
Govcrnzaent? Economy?
b. U hat key personalities in the regime, if any, may
be said to be "I?1U.scovites "?
10.
-That influence (political, economic, and military) does
the USSR exert in the border areas of Cnmiunist China?
a.
b.
:that is the nature of political relations among
G==ist China, the USSR, and Mongolia?
`,'hat influence does the US R (or Mongolia) exert
in ifianchuria? in Inner 'Abngoliaa? in Sinkiang?
11.
What relations of primary influence exist between
Con nuniat China? and the USER?
a. In doctrine concerning revolutions in Ate?
b. In the strategic direction of Co:; runist activities
in Southeast Asia? In Japan?
c. In North Korea? To what degree has the presence
of Chinese Comaunist troops affected Soviet influence
there?
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12. To what degree, if any, are the Chinese Comnnxnists
more Impatient and aggressive concerning foreign
policy ambitions than the Soviets?
D. Other bluest ion,,,
The following intelligence weaknesses were also revealed
in the preparation of NIE's 47, 55/1, and 58:
13. To what degree does public opinion in Communist China
coniditon the regime's determination of policy?
14. What is the state of Communist China's air defenses
In 'Manchuria, and north China? Elsewhere in China?
To what extent would a redeployment of the CLAP improve
these defenses?
15. What trends exist in Co aumist China's armed force
mobilization programs? Are the armed forces growing
larger, smaller, or remaining; static in their numerical
strength?
16. What phasing programs have been set for the modernization
of Chinese Communist armed forces with Soviet equipment?
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